Best Thread Trading Naked

[Bloodhound]

Cable Part 1

Morning all,

Hawk - I hope you managed to get in on this one. Couple of things of interest IMO.

1) Look how picture perfectly price is reacting to the obvious intraday support levels
2) There were 2 levels to go short from. I took the lower of the 2 to avoid getting faked



Bye for now

Rob

 

[Vaco]

With regards to your experiment on eurchf, why not just drop a tf and continue trading breakouts to the downside only, that way you can stay in your comfort zone of trading break outs.

 

[Bloodhound]

With regards to your experiment on eurchf, why not just drop a tf and continue trading breakouts to the downside only, that way you can stay in your comfort zone of trading break outs.

Hello,

Thank you for dropping in. Very good question. The answer is 2-fold:

1) My actual comfort zone is cable M5 and, to be honest, I find the higher timeframes extremely stressful as they aren't a natural 'fit' with my personality. To this end, and following a decent run on cable of late, I am trying to expand my repetoire. I also have a way of trading cable which quite often means I can have finished trading for the week by Tuesday and, to put it frankly, I am then incredibly bored for the rest of the week. I've looked at various timeframes and find that, across the board, H4 is the one that looks right to me, hence why I'm not too keen to drop down, unless I see something very obvious on, say H1.

2) Buying support and selling resistance is a bugbear of mine. It should be something I can do but, for some reason, I struggle with the psychology behind it so I guess I'm challenging myself to try and overcome it.

All that said, I totally agree with what you say about comfort zones and, very possibly, I am setting myself up for a visit to my panic zone and at an unpalatable financial cost if I continue to pursue a way of trading that doesn't fit with my psyche. In essence I am a breakout trader: Q.E.D. 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it'!

Thanks for the extremely thought provoking question.

All the best

Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable 16/10/09 - Part 2

Well she doesn't seem to be ablt to make her mind up this morning. When T1 broke I genuinely thought we were on a run down to 62 but she had other ideas. Not bad though and she 'feels' right this morning.

 

[Bloodhound]

How I deal with expectancy

Obviously making no promises but, from an intraday point of view, I like seeing this sort of consolidation as it says to me that a level has been established. Now what I am looking for / 'expecting' is for the England rugby team to turn up and steamroller price straight through it. Any hesitation on the part of price to bust this level will have me running scared....

 

[Bloodhound]

Update

That was a really interesting one and apologies for not replying sooner but, as I hope you can understand, it can get a little hectic when things don't go quite as expected!!

Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to dissect how I reacted to that, in the light of what actually happened...

The break was straight into Foredog's American pack at 6319 (overnight support) and it held. I think this M1 chart tells the story best as to how I played that. Some times cbale can be friendly and others not so friendly. Today was a friendly day!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Rules is rules

I have a number of little rules about stops and one of them is that I always put my stop to break even +1. It may sound stupid but if you saw the amoutn of b/e trades I have those +1's start to add up and go some way to paying for the spread.

Anyway, Eleftoros was right in that it's choppy today and I wasn't expecting a pull back quite as deep as that. Stopped out to te pip but that's life - better to stick to the rules IMO.



That's me done on cable for the week - this morning's outing produced a return of just under 5 1/2 times risk, so not a bad one at all. I tend to view anything over 5 times risk as a good day's work and then call it a day - there's no point in giving back hard earned cash IMO.

Now I just need to try and get my head round my existing longer tf positions!!

 

[mb325]

On that note, currently watching USD/JPY, here's a chart.

 

[Bloodhound]

On that note, currently watching USD/JPY, here's a chart.

I've got resistance from late September at 91.34 and 91.56

 

[mb325]

I've got resistance from late September at 91.34 and 91.56

I just have 9160, if it does break 9128 i'll be moving stop to BE asap and give it a chance at breaking through the higher R. Looking a bit...tepid at the moment though.

 

[Bloodhound]

I just have 9160, if it does break 9128 i'll be moving stop to BE asap and give it a chance at breaking through the higher R. Looking a bit...tepid at the moment though.

Totally agree FWIW with the stop movement. It depends on speed of movement etc. but I'm all for getting stops in tight asap.

 

[HawkTrader]

Hi gang,

haven't traded today, instead had the longest sleep in months. :cheesy: I never trade Friday's but I've seen you guys and various other members on the forums trade is quite well... I've just always thought it was more likely to be a choppy day and I hate finishing my week with losses.

 

[HawkTrader]

So do you only bother with Fridays when you haven't made enough profit for the week? Because I noticed if you reach your profit target by Tuesday or whenever you finish for the week.

By the way, like my new avatar?

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi Mitch,

This is how I see it FWIW. Remember, this is just my view and I could (and very often am) wrong!!



1. Price broke through 91 this morning forming a new high.
2. This was then broken and a new HrH printed approx 10 pips below the late September resistance level.
3. The important thing for me at this point was the formation of the fractal which gave a new HrL. Following this I would expect to see (if price were going to carry on up) a new HrH BUT
4. What in fact happened was a LrH printed which gave a clue to a possible reversal of trend.
5. The downside to trading this could be that it would be shorting straight into a round number level, where there may be significant support.
6. If I were trading this (and I've never trade UJ on M5), I'd probably be looking for a gentle move down (UJ doesn't seem to speed about like cable!) but I wuld be very wary of the support level as this could provide the support for a further move up to new highs.

Hope this is useful.

All the best

Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

So do you only bother with Fridays when you haven't made enough profit for the week? Because I noticed if you reach your profit target by Tuesday or whenever you finish for the week.

By the way, like my new avatar?

In an ideal, and supremely disciplined world, I would not have traded cable today but I liked the picture overnight and also need to make up for the dogs dinner I'm making of the longer timeframe stuff!!

Nice avatar!!

 

[Bloodhound]

HI Mitch,

A quick update on what I'm seeing. It's very different to cable and requires much more breathing space. In fact I would struggle to trade this as I am way to impatient!! Obviously it's not a great time of day to be trading but this still looks very weak to me,



All the best

Rob

Edit: Absolutely classic - whilst I was writing this it suddenly decided to breadown and test 91. Just goes to show how dangerous thinking can be lol!!!

 

[Bloodhound]

At this point I would be out. It's always hard to know exactly how one is likely to behave when real money is at stake but, in truth, the time it was taking this trade to work would have worried me. The breakdown spiked through the 91 level but then came back pretty quick, hence why I would have moved my stop to point 4.



It's important to note that I really don't care how many times I get stopped out at break even. I know this flies in the face of a lot of what one reads, but my job is controlling risk and also, I know that I will see simply dozens of set-ups every week, even on one instrument. When a trade works (in my limited experience) it quite simply works, regardless of where one's stop is. It's making sure that the losers don't cost too much in getting to the winner........

 

[morgan_edge]

At this point I would be out. It's always hard to know exactly how one is likely to behave when real money is at stake but, in truth, the time it was taking this trade to work would have worried me.

Are you not trading real money at the moment Kitejedi? I assumed you were for some reason, probably just because you appear to be 'full time'.

Anyway, nice trading from you. Good luck

 

[foredog]

Are you not trading real money at the moment Kitejedi? I assumed you were for some reason, probably just because you appear to be 'full time'.

Anyway, nice trading from you. Good luck

Think you've got your wires crossed, he's not taken that trade in USDJPY so was saying that he may have acted differently if he had money on the line.

 

[Bloodhound]

Are you not trading real money at the moment Kitejedi? I assumed you were for some reason, probably just because you appear to be 'full time'.

Anyway, nice trading from you. Good luck

Hi Morgan,
Sorry - should have explained better. All my cable trades and the longer tf stuff is with real money but the UJ charts were to explain what I was seeing and what I probably would have done. Naturally things can be a little different in real life!! Would love to get to a position where the 'full time' bit becomes 'part time' though!!
All the best
Rob

Edit: Oops - Foredog had already answered!