Best Thread Trading Naked

[Bloodhound]

Set-ups

A couple of people have asked what set-ups I use so I've dug these out from my trading journal along with some notes I wrote at the time. There's absolutely nothing special about them at all, and definitely no hidden secrets. As far as I am aware they should work on any timeframe and in any market.

"Here are my main set-ups. They are all M5 and happen day in day out. Some work and some don't - it's how I manage them once triggered which dictates if I can become a consistently profitable trader.

I try, as much as possible, not to refer to these with names as I believe that giving a chart pattern a name might make me start to believe that a pattern 'must' work because it's called an inverse shampoo or whatever. I generally just focus on the levels and preceding price action - HrH's etc.

Candle colours and shapes are irrelevant - the only time I think about them is when spikes through levels occur and then I only think about minus development, price acceptance and rejection in relation to time."

 

[Bloodhound]

Mega 1-2-3???

Anyone up or having a crack at this one???? TBH the stop is a little out of my price bracket but it'll be interesting to see what happens if this triggers LOL....

 

[foredog]

Looks like an afternoon of back and forth for cable. Stoplosses beware!

 

[Bloodhound]

Looks like an afternoon of back and forth for cable. Stoplosses beware!

I completely agree. Cable on Fridays is quite often quite ugly.

Just a thought for anyone delving into the intraday, lower timeframes side of life but, I used to hit a runner in the morning (let's say a decent 40-80 pip move) and then I'd carry on trading. Sometimes the US would open and there'd be a reversal of that move and I'd catch it going to other way (with a few losers in between) and the net result would be as follows:

1) Ego boost for having got both moves
2) A net position, possibly lower than if I'd only taken the morning move and then walked away, but sometimes a little higher

However, more often there wouldn't be a reversal and she'd go into chop mode and the net result would be as follows:

1) Ego completely destroyed as all the morning's hard work goes up in smoke
2) A net position which quite possibly gone from positive to negative

Anyway, just a thought 🙂

 

[tenbobtrader]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/62906-cable-1-4500-1-7500-a-3.html#post934816

Good post and thoughts FW - from last week 👍

own chart + this weeks for your higher timeframe hobby Rob

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/71028-horizontal-lines.html#post934800

turning into a real good thread Rob - suprised the posts come out in the right order - its going that fast

have a good weekend all

Andy

 

[Bloodhound]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/62906-cable-1-4500-1-7500-a-3.html#post934816

Good FW post from last week 👍

own chart + this weeks for your higher timeframe hobby Rob

turning into a real good thread Rob - suprised the posts come out in the right order - its going that fast

have a good weekend all

Andy

Thank you for your valued input Andy. Always welcome here 🙂

And BY THE WAY

To anyone reading this thread, it would be great to see others getting involved, posting charts etc.

ALSO
If there are any traders, like myself, who are new to the game, looking for a 'system' (LOL - I'm afraid I don't do systems) and like the simplicity of what is being discussed here but don't quite 'get it', please ask questions.

The only way I ever got from the mess which was my trading to some sort of level of profitability was by being inquisitive. No question is stupid - only not asking questions is stupid..... As a very good trader friend of mine once said to me - this game can be as simple or as hard as one wants it to be. I have always wanted it to be as simple as possible. If you're reading this and don't understand that the following sequence of letters can be all that is required (in my mind anyway) for an entry point, place for a stop loss and exit point then PLEASE ASK.

HrH, HrL, HrH, HrL, LrH, LrL, LrH, LrL, LrH, HrL

 

[tenbobtrader]

"ALSO
If there are any traders, like myself, who are new to the game, looking for a 'system' (LOL - I'm afraid I don't do systems) and like the simplicity of what is being discussed here but don't quite 'get it', please ask questions.

The only way I ever got from the mess which was my trading to some sort of level of profitability was by being inquisitive. No question is stupid - only not asking questions is stupid..... As a very good trader friend of mine once said to me - this game can be as simple or as hard as one wants it to be. I have always wanted it to be as simple as possible. If you're reading this and don't understand that the following sequence of letters can be all that is required (in my mind anyway) for an entry point, place for a stop loss and exit point then PLEASE ASK.

HrH, HrL, HrH, HrL, LrH, LrL, LrH, LrL, LrH, HrL "

Hi Rob

agree 100 %

M5 chart from the 13th Oct 2009

you lads were to buzzzz'y trading the far eastern chop chop and appear to have missed this one 🙂

have a good weekend

Andy

 

[Bloodhound]

If I could just add to the excellent chart that Andy posted above, this chart I posted earlier in the week. If you can't see what's happening then please ask away!!



P.S. If it all looks a little simplistic, that's because it is. I, personally, don't believe it has to be any harder than this. The hard bit is, in my experience to date, dealing with the losses, the days when it just doesn't go according to plan etc.

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable M5 - 13th October 2009

Andy - you've got me working on a Saturday :-( !!!

All the information required to place a potentially successful trade is included on this chart. In fact there are 2 winners and 2 losers / break even trades.

What is NOT required IMO to make money from this chart are the following:

Market fundamentals
What the higher timeframes are doing, overall trends etc. (although may not be such a bad idea)
Fibs
Knowledge of Japanese candlesticks
Knowledge of chart patterns
Any form of indicator, MA or the like
It's debatable if one even needs to put any horizontal lines on the chart (although probably adviseable to)

Price is 100% unpredictable but it does give some handy hints along the way 🙂



P.S. I am not, in any way, saying that using any of the above are bad, wrong, or won't produce results. It's just not the way I do things. Others, I am sure, will do things entirely differently 🙂

 

[Bloodhound]

A simple study of USDCHF

I'd be very interested to hear any comments about this one.

Following some incredibly helpful feedback this week I have decided to look at my higher timeframe studies as a hobby for the moment, and only trade with tiny size whilst I slowly figure them out, whilst keeping my focus on cable M5 which is my bread and butter.

This is how I see this pair.









Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Rob

 

[elitejets]

You posted something about trading and gambling earlier. Here is a very good quote from Marcel Link in his excellent High Probability Trading:

"[The professional gamblers] don't take unnecessary risks or gambles. They know when the odds are in their favor and will bet more when the odds get better. If the odds aren't there, they won't risk nearly as much, if anything. They know how to protect their winnings, and they know how to call it a day when Lady Luck is blowing on some other guy's dice. Having this discipline lets them come back to the table the next day. [...]

They know that losing is part of being successful, and as long as they do the right things, they are okay with losing; they won't try to make it all back on the next hand. They know that if they stick to their rules, they will make it back in the future by being consistent. [...]

Successful gamblers also know they don't have to be in every hand. A good poker player is disciplined enough to fold hand after hand until the right one comes along. [...] For the most part it's the amateurs who try to bluff. Pros do not do it nearly as much; they would rather go for the sure hands and sit out the rest. [...]

[The professional gambler] doesn't necessarily increase the size of his bets because he is on a good streak or has doubled his money. Very rarely does a pro make bigger bets because he has a hunch or feels invincible. "

 

[Bloodhound]

Excellent thoughts for the weekend Nic!! There are some big lessons in there - especially poignant when I think back to chats we have had about making one's money and then stopping for the rest of the week - why give it back??!!!

 

[Claudia123]

Excellent thoughts for the weekend Nic!! There are some big lessons in there - especially poignant when I think back to chats we have had about making one's money and then stopping for the rest of the week - why give it back??!!!

This is so true. I target 100 points a week on my main fx account. When I get it I now stop - but it took a long time to learn this. So many time's have I given it back.

 

[Bloodhound]

This is so true. I target 100 points a week on my main fx account. When I get it I now stop - but it took a long time to learn this. So many time's have I given it back.

Hello Claudia,

Thanks for dropping in. I feel very strongly about this point. I go one step further and will sometimes, if I've been having a tough week, cut a trade when it's nicely in profit and walk away. After all, for me anyway, it's about trading to live, not living to trade and also trading to make money, not trading for the sake of it 🙂

All the best

Rob

 

[tenbobtrader]

Thursdays is just another day in a perfect world 🙂

you have an edge you use it at every opportunity imvho

packing in because you have a bad feeling about giving back is emotional decision making - mirror of I lost my last 5 the next one must be a winner !

you win Mon Tue Wed ................... Thur = just another day, if you feel your going to give back = FEAR

Fear is well founded only if you have not run all the numbers on your chosen method

Thursdays is just another day in a perfect world 🙂

Andy

 

[Claudia123]

Glad you didn't mention Fridays I hate trading them !!

Fear never been an issue with me but greed has. The way I learnt to overcome that was simply to set a realistic target weekly, and when achieved say 'well done - wine time'. It is so easy to get over confident which leads to over trading which leads to losses. Was for me anyway.

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi Andy,

Going off topic from charts for a moment but a very interesting post which I would be doing a disservice to if I didn't elaborate on my thoughts. Not for one second wanting to disagree as what you say I'm sure is right regarding exploiting an edge, but part of my 'edge' revolves around the fact that cable tends to make at least a couple of decent moves every week. My job is to catch at least one of these. Providing I catch one and haven't spent too much money sitting in the line-up getting cold / losing money (I have been reading your journal and I hope you'll understand what I mean by that!) then I will make a return which provides me with both a decent income and potential capital appreciation as well. This is all I ask for tbh.

Your remarks about fear really struck a chord but, strangely enough, when I looked hard at myself a couple of months ago and thought through this, I found that a major problem for me was not fear of giving back but fear of missing out - the dreaded dopamine gnawing away at me. Fear of missing out, for me anyway, was leading to over-trading, followed by losses.

Maybe a subject for further more chart-based discussion but I treat entries (set-ups) as a very small part of the game. It's what happens next and how I deal with this that is the key for me - in a way, that is my edge: and extremely simple set of set-ups, combined with my ability to manage them correctly, combined with a fairly mathematical approach to money management. It is interesting that you posted that chart of cable on Tuesday. I would quite possibly have had a bad day on Tuesday as, whilst there are some picture perfect trends there, the way she was moving wouldn't have accorded well with the way I deal with trade expectancy. In other words, I may have given back some of Monday's profits on Tuesday - then again Friday was a good one, so maybe you're right and I should just trade every day 🙂

Ultimately for me it is about aiming for a weekly income target. Some weeks cable just isn't playing ball with me and I feel I must take what I can get and run. Possibly not the best way of playing things but, to date, the best way for me financially.

Apologies for the extremely long post BTW.

All the best

Rob

 

[tenbobtrader]

Rob

"I recollect Pat Hearne. Ever hear of him? Well, he was a very well-known sporting man and he had an account with us. Clever chap and merry. He made money in stocks, and that made people ask him for advice. He would never give any. If they asked him point-blank for his opinion about the wisdom of their commitments he used a favourite race-track maxim of his: "you can't tell till you bet." He traded in our office. He would buy one hundred shares of some active stock and when, or if, it went up 1 per cent he would buy another hundred. On another point's advance, another hundred shares; and so on. He used to say he wasn't playing the game to make money for others and therefore he would put in a stop-loss order one point below the price of his last purchase. When the price kept going up he simply move up his stop with it. On a 1 per cent reaction he was stopped out. He declared he did not see any sense in losing more than one point, whether it came out of his original margin or out of his paper profits.

"You know, a professional gambler is not looking for long shots, but for sure money. Of course long shots are fine when they come in. In the stock market Pat wasn't after tips or playing to catch twenty-points-a-week advances, but sure money in sufficient quantity to provide him with a good living. Of all the thousands of outsiders that I have run across in Wall Street, Pat Hearne was the only one who saw in stock speculation merely a game of chance like faro or roulette, but nevertheless, had the sense to stick to a relatively sound betting method."

from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator


"If it don't go - I don't want to be there" ....... any timeframe

a good link for new boys and girls and some not so new 🙂


..:: DO NOT TRADE ON ADRENALINE © ::..


(I have been reading your journal and I hope you'll understand what I mean by that!)

so its you that keeps clicking the hit rate up Rob .... 🙂

imvho we all see what we want to see ~

 

[Bloodhound]

Loading Up - Part 1

Hello All,

Hope everyone is having a cracking weekend. I've been asked to write some thoughts on how I manage my trades - adding to them etc. Specifically how I ran my H1 cable trade from near the beginning of this thread. Now this is entirely different to how I trade M5 as that relies on a different expectancy (not to confused with prediction) of what will happen next, but the principles are broadly similar. As usual, let me caveat this by saying I am a complete beginner - what I think and do may not be right, it's just what I think and do. Anyway, here goes.

1) First off I believe that price is never random in its movements but 100% unpredictable. This is extremely important to me and took me a long time to truly understand. It has also led to the dawning realisation that nothing in life is predictable (save for death). What I have just written is at the core of my trading philosophy and I can not / will not be budged in that way of thinking - please don't even try lol!!). Anyone who uses words like think, forecast, predict is missing the point IMO. This must not be confused with trade expectancy which is something entirely different.

2) I have studiously ignored reading too much about trading but I did spend a rainy Sunday afternoon reading Livermore's 'Reminiscences' once. A great book and it showed me a couple of important things which are, again, at the core of my trading philosophy. Firstly, buy when price is going up and sell when it's going down - so damn simple but why don't people do this??? Secondly, Livermore would test price levels and once he knew things were going his way he would load up. Again, it's pretty logical and also sits very well with me. I'll expand on this in a while.

3) I am extremely risk averse. I define risk as follows:
a) Personal risk - risk to both body and mind that trading can offer, together with impact on family, friends etc. I think and care a lot about personal risk as I do not want to damage myself or those around me.
b) Market risk - given that I believe markets are unpredictable and can do whatever they like, I do not like being exposed to them for longer than needs be. The longer I have a position, the longer I am at risk of the market doing something that could hurt my trading account. Please note that I have accepted that this is fear. This is not fear that my 'system' will fail as I do not believe in 'systems' per se, but I am afraid of (or possibly more accurately, respect) the market and what it could do to me unless I manage my risk extremely carefully.

Apologies for the blurb above but it is important in explaining how / why I manage a runner once I'm in.

Next I'll need to draw some charts up. Back in a while 🙂

All the best
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

Loading Up - Part 2

Dow theory, Elliott Wave, anatomy of a trend etc. All extremely important and interesting and I have a limited knowledge of this stuff but I have tried to keep my own views simple so here goes. I've just picked any old chart from cable recently. This is what I 'expect' to see out of a cable M5 trend.

I aim to jump on board trends......

The entry signals can vary from range breakouts to trading a 1-2-3 in a range to pre-empt the breakout, to a HrH, HrL sequence changing to a break of a fractal level.