Best Thread Trading Naked

[HawkTrader]

Makes absolute sense Rob. Basically you are taking a pecentage of your equity to invest for the day, if you spend it all you stop. Think of it as shopping with Cable! LOL

What happens if you say, have 2% of equity to spend but you spend it all AND make profits? Is that it or do you carry on?

 

[Bloodhound]

P.S. This is why I find it hard to talk about pips etc. when I'm looking at trades as it is all about hard cash and percentages for me. Pip counts are irrelevant IMO - it's what they represent as a function of return versus risk / capital which is important.

 

[Bloodhound]

Makes absolute sense Rob. Basically you are taking a pecentage of your equity to invest for the day, if you spend it all you stop. Think of it as shopping with Cable! LOL

What happens if you say, have 2% of equity to spend but you spend it all AND make profits? Is that it or do you carry on?

I'm not sure if I understand the question but, put simply, I will keep trading until I've blown that 2% or had a decent runner and made some cash.

 

[HawkTrader]

Sorry, I could have explained it a little better.

Say you make 5 trades, spending your 2%. But every one of those trades was profitable and you made 8% (or whatever) from it, do you then stop since you've spent you're 2%, or only stop when you've made an amount of profit you are happy with?

 

[Bloodhound]

Sorry, I could have explained it a little better.

Say you make 5 trades, spending your 2%. But every one of those trades was profitable and you made 8% (or whatever) from it, do you then stop since you've spent you're 2%, or only stop when you've made an amount of profit you are happy with?

Sorry - I see what you're saying. No - if I start the day with 100 pounds in my pocket and go on to make 4 times that, I now have 400 pounds and I haven't actually pent anything as I am cash positive - it's not quite the same as shopping as trading doesn't 'cost' money until you lose. If on the other hand I started with 100 pounds and then, over the course of the day had a few winners and a few losers, but ended up 100 pounds down then that is it - I'm blown my limit and I'm done for the day.

 

[apmf]

Visualisation of what? Yourself being profitable? I've heard about that before, it's a bit like NLP isn't it? I'm sure it can help and as I've discussed with you before Rob, when I try to meditate the night before a trading session I will always make great trades. I try to keep to a ritual though, wake up, cold shower (not doing that now, too cold! Should be though), dress smartly, eat a nice breakfast, brush teeth and then sit up straigt at my desk... treat it like a business, imagine you're being watched and have to make an impression. Getting up with my hair all over the place, bath robe on, grabbing an old pizza from the night before and then curling up on the chair certainly doesn't help!!

FWIW reviewing my trading journal is the only thing I do which has helped me a lot so far. I make sure to go through all my previous mistakes before starting the day and promise to myself I will not repeat those f*****g mistake today. But still do it now and then lol!
EFT, NLP or meditation I have tried some of it myself but never had the discipline to do it consistently. Thinking of paying some specialist to treat my brain

 

[morgan_edge]

Sorry, I could have explained it a little better.

Say you make 5 trades, spending your 2%. But every one of those trades was profitable and you made 8% (or whatever) from it, do you then stop since you've spent you're 2%, or only stop when you've made an amount of profit you are happy with?

I tihnk he's saying that If the trades were winning then he wouldn't have 'spent' any of that 2%.

edit: I see Kite answered it before me

 

[HawkTrader]

Gotcha Rob, what I was trying to imply was that if you had a limit of how many trades (not spending), then even if you've won so far you'll end the day as you've 'spent' your trading capital. So you've got £100, you spend £25 per trade making 4 trades, you made £50 on each trade but because you've "spent" your daily limit, you finish with your £200 profit and thats it... just some thoughts!

 

[Bloodhound]

Gotcha Rob, what I was trying to imply was that if you had a limit of how many trades (not spending), then even if you've won so far you'll end the day as you've 'spent' your trading capital. So you've got £100, you spend £25 per trade making 4 trades, you made £50 on each trade but because you've "spent" your daily limit, you finish with your £200 profit and thats it... just some thoughts!

Think of it like walking into a casino (trading floor). I walk in with 100 pounds and go to the roulette table (cable). I then put 10 pounds on red (a level) and lose. I now have 90 pounds. 9 more of those and I'm going home with no more cash to play the roulette table with. If I win, I can keep playing as I still have money to play with and, ultimately, I'm hoping to hit the jackpot (home run) and walk out with a grand in my hand (LOL). The number of spins of the wheel and times I bet (place a trade) are irrelevant. My job is to keep my losses as small as possible to allow me to keep playing at the table and putting my chips down until the big winner comes in.

Apologies for the gambling analogy but best way I can explain it.

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi Rob

we build a method a view of the market when if price gets to X Y or Z location

looking for PA that indicates setup and trade trigger at anticipated location

in the background without thinking about it you have just developed a potential valid trade idea which you will not act upon

your mind is fixed on the target area where the trade set up may occur in the future

in the moment where action is required your right a large % of the time

Price actually gets to your target area

you just fail to notice the moment and potential opportunity because your looking for your level / setup in the future

sure many active traders will see this in their own framework of analysis

oh look its got there (80pts) - time to look for my low risk set up !

hope that makes a bit more sense

Andy

Yup - I get you perfectly. In other words - there's a level 200 points away where I will trade and in doing so I completely miss out on the fact that price has to travel 200 points to get there!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi Andy,
Just to make doubly sure I am understanding you am I correct in saying that:



1) Here's a chart of NZDUSD with price trending up and a possible set-up would be a break upwards from the previous high at 7484
2) There is currently what is looking like a possible point of no return forming at 7408 (where one's stop might be placed if trading the break of the highs)
3) For price to trigger a long at 7484 it has to travel from it's current level at roughly 7420ish
4) Therefore it will have to travel up approx 60 points to get to the previous high and trigger a long
5) Therefore buy it now and enjoy the ride up, safe in the knowledge that if it doesn;t go up then at least the risk to the downside is minimised by being that much closer to one's point of no return

Is that right?
All the best
Rob

 

[HawkTrader]

5) Therefore buy it now and enjoy the ride up, safe in the knowledge that if it doesn;t go up then at least the risk to the downside is minimised by being that much closer to one's point of no return

That would only work if you trade the same lot size for every trade and never scale your size in relation to your stop placement.

 

[tenbobtrader]

very easy to miss if you take a 0 of 200 Rob intra day in fast price action

never my strong point HT

 

[Bloodhound]

USDCHF - Part 2

OK - inspired by Tenbob I am trying an experiment. The experiment is actually more on me than trying out a trading system or any such thing.

The way I trade cable M5 is all about levels breaking whereas the more traditional way to play things is to buy support and sell resistance. Anyway, I am adding to USDCHF, but only at very small size. I am doing this out of the locked in profits I already have. The logic is a follows.

1) I am short and price has been going down
2) For whatever reason (and I care not why) it has bounced up a bit BUT has then found a level (just under 1.02) is coming off again
3) Assuming it carries on down I would normally look to add to the position at a new low
4) This means for a large stop so I have said to myself - I will trade a rejection of that resistance level instead
5) I am fully aware that I am in 'late' but I wanted to see a half decent move down before pulling the tigger and, if anyone can be bothered to look, M5 has printed a LrH and looks weak to the upside IMO.
6) This entry is all about whether I can deal with trading in a fashion which, to me, is counter-intuitive.



Let's see what happens.

All the best

Rob

 

[tenbobtrader]

Hi Rob

"OK - inspired by Tenbob I am trying an experiment. The experiment is actually more on me than trying out a trading system or any such thing."



A counterintuitive proposition is one that does not seem likely to be true when assessed using intuition or gut feelings.

Scientifically discovered, objective truths are often called counterintuitive when intuition, emotions, and other cognitive processes outside of deductive rationality interpret them to be wrong. However, the subjective nature of intuition limits the objectivity of what to call counterintuitive because what is counter-intuitive for one may be intuitive for another.

"Flawed understanding of a problem may lead to counter-productive behavior with undesirable outcomes. In some such cases, counterintuitive policies may then produce a more desirable outcome. For example, a policy of catching large fish and throwing back small ones may be counter-productive. In response to that policy, evolutionary pressure may select for small fish. A counterintuitive improvement may be to catch only medium sized fish, leaving the biggest free to breed, creating evolutionary pressure for fish to grow quickly through the medium size."



was just an observation from my own trading intra day Rob



trade idea would still need to be exactly defined by each individual imvho to be of any use

one mans % might not apply to the next man over a good sample period (price move to target zone / many variables factors in play) --- bit like your cut loss post --- discretion applied / subconscious perhaps at work


"Any trading system that is not 100% undeniably controlled by some mechanical means or fixed rule in every single aspect of its existence is judgemental in some way, no matter how small.

Any system with a judgemental component will work better for the system developer than for some random person who buys it and puts it into action.

The only way to profit from a system in the same way as the developer is to take the same signals that the developer takes, and exit when the developer exits"

later Rob

good luck with your thread :clover:

Andy

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi Andy,

Very interesting observations. When I said 'inspired by' what I meant was that your comments have got the mental cogs whirring, which is no mean feat for me!!. The whole buy support / sell resistance thing has been a constant struggle, possibly more because I am so used to buying and selling breaks of levels - in other words my use of the words 'counter-intuitive' was quite possibly incorrect - I think what I should have said was that it is a way of trading which I am un-used to. The great thing is that your comments really got me thinking back to the posts I wrote on fractals and ultimately what the purpose of support and resistance is and how I could evolve this style longer term trading I am having a crack at. The M5 stuff will always be as it already for me as I am very much of the 'if ain't broke, don't fix it' way of thinking.

The best way I can explain my thought process drawn from your comments are as follows. I'm not saying that that is exactly what you were saying - more what it got me to think about:

1) I see a possible breakout level (let's say the break of a HrH) and
2) I also see a level at which that breakout would be invalidated (a break of the last HrL)
3) Where is price in relation to these 2 points?
4) There must be something that is telling me that the HrH might be broken - possibly as simple as the fact that price is going up already
5) My eyes (and possibly the 'market's' are drawn to this HrH like a magnet)
6) If this is the case, price will have to travel from its current level to 'test' that HrH level
7) In other words, why not jump on board now, rather than wait and trade a possible breakout when price is miles from its last HrL (point of no return / stop level)?
8) Who or what is telling me all of this? My eyes, gut instinct????

Hoping this makes a bit of sense - it certainly does to me but I may be missing something. Suffice to say, what you have written is incredibly thought provoking - thank you.

All the best

Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

EURCHF - Game over

I've been starting at this one for a couple of days thinking it looked horrible until I chucked a few lines onto it and then it all started to look a bit rosier.

The blue lines mark the levels that interest me and that SbR level tells a great story IMO.

Anyway, let's see what happens....

View attachment 65908

Didn't go quite according to plan....

 

[Bloodhound]

Not always, in fact not very often at all, I've noticed that cable can sometimes make some interesting moves after lunch in the US. These tend to follow long periods of consolidation in my experience.

Anyway, here's a couple of levels I'm watching. The key for me here is watching the speed of price in the build up to a break of the level as this can give a good indication of what to expect once the level is broken....



I regard trading at this time of day to be extremely high risk so, unless I see what I expect to see (i.e. decisive moves in the lead up and after a break of a level) I will either not take the trade, or cut very quickly if it's not going my way. Chop is the killer on M5 IMO.

Edit: Half an hour later and it's getting close to triggering a short but there is zero momentum so I'm pulling both trades.

 

[Bloodhound]

NZDUSD - Part 1

I shan't be staying awake to see what happens to this one.

BTW, I thought it might be useful to explain my thought processes on why I get into some of these trades, so here goes:

1) Massive trend up starting months ago
2) The last week has seen a decent HrH and HrL sequence printing
3) Today's pullback 'could' be as a result of hitting a previous support level from back in June, and I always allow levels to be broken and retested from the other side.
4) I have next major resistance at 7760, so this could be quite a nice runner if played correctly
5) In simple terms - it's going up so I'm a buyer
6) If I'm wrong - so what. Just move onto the next one...



P.S. If, overnight, price doesn't break the high and, instead prints a LrH I might even look at a short if it breaks today's low, although I'll need to sleep on that idea as it might be like standing between water and a dozen hippopotami.....

 

[Bloodhound]

Charting

I've just got off the phone with a pal of mine who was looking at the NZDUSD chart I posted earlier and was wondering whether he needed to get his contacts replaced, or had I had some sort of major IT malfunction where my charting package had gone fuzzy.

Neither of these, luckily, is the case.

The simple reason is that more and more I am looking at charts, zoomed out to this level - especially on M5. As my whole life revolves around levels, I like to at least get them right. Probably more so trading intraday, I find it all too easy to 'invent' levels in order to get the next trade going and this can be damn expensive!!

I recently invested in a couple of 23" widescreens which have helped massively but I still find that a little bit of perspective goes a long way in determining what may or may not be a level that Mervyn King or the chaps at Goldman Sachs are looking at. Sure, the M5 fractal with a 5 pip stop could produce the next 200 pip run, but more often that not, it's the blindingly obvious levels that seem to work.

Anyway, just a thought. At the end of the day I try and trade with the mindset that the set-up which leaps out of the screen, slaps me round the face and literally screams at me to trade it is usually the one that makes the money