Trading ES (Q1 2004)

[stoploss please]

VIX telling me to get off for a breather

Hanging man on the VIX

 

[frugi]

That was the scariest two hours I've had the displeasure of enduring for quite a while! Fed futures buying after terrible data?

Inv H&S target met on an obscene volume parabolic blow off top. Five waves on the 5min so now expecting ABC. Think we've just had the A down to 61.8% of today's pop and drop.

Ah no, there's more downside!

 

[stoploss please]

Ten minute chart

Found a new toy. Regression trend channels. I like the way the price exceeded the highest line, got dizzy up there and fell down under it again.

 

[stoploss please]

Does anyone use this on the e-mini

Called the pitchfork. I wonder in the price will hold within the lower prong thingy.

 

[frugi]

The angry nest of bears that lives up at number 1162 finally had a chance to employ their exquisitely fashioned bull traps, scattering them among the raging herd with undisguised glee. Dizziness sets in soon after their unfortunate horns are snared, I believe, but if they will charge unthinkingly up to a new high on bad news I'm afraid I have little sympathy.

B wave up to 1159 perhaps?

Edit: SLP, hey it's Andrew's pitchfork so you ought to know how to use it :cheesy:
I've not got it on sierra so can't help you, sorry m8. Looks like a sensible sort of prong though

 

[stoploss please]

Well the pitchfork seemed to work. 1159 is the top of that regression channel malaki.

 

[jonnyy40]

New high in sp but dow not interested -- any significance?

 

[stoploss please]

Tick, Trin, VIX and VXN gone bullish

Tick break number two. However looking at the other sectors, everything looks out of sync.

SOX -0.7
Compq -0.2
SPX +0.3
BIX +1.1
UTIL +0.6

Maybe 3 point upside then a cup of tea and a digestive.

 

[stoploss please]

approaching top of channel

fruges

What do ya recon. A bit more yoyoing.

 

[frugi]

C wave to 1149?

Another 5 waves up to 1159 R2 pivot/ 61.8% of morning selloff (5min)- gosh it's being remarkably obedient to TA today. Nice Tick div on that 0.5pt spook out above 1159 too.

So, perhaps three little ones down now. 1149 may be pessimistic. 1153 likely though imho.

 

[stoploss please]

1149 you say

fruges

Thats one hell of a drop m8. How did you get to that number.

 

[frugi]

Just cause it's near today's low and the 10 day EMA. A pure guess really in fact! The 10 day EMA has been really useful lately, acting like a magnet and a springboard. Stick one on a 10 min (405EMA I think, if yr chart is 2.30-9.15) and you'll see what I mean.

We have bounced off the 61.8% of the most recent 5 wave up in a wave B. C projects to 1153 pivot roughly as long as 1159 holds on a retest.

I wouldn't rule out another test of 1159 though.

Looking at bigger waves we may be near the start of a big C down in which case we could go as low as 1146.5 (equal in length to the big selloff). If that happens we break a major channel and all hell could break loose! But the 10 EMA usually does a good job of catching falls.

Don't listen to me though, I came close to losing 1k this morning.

 

[Finirama]

forming a triangle

 

[frugi]

Jeez just lookit the targets for that monster! 11 pts either way I reckon. Well spotted mate, I'm drawing it on now. Vol gone to nothing, reckon another fat move is in the offing.

 

[Finirama]

Vol on the 5 min has been decreasing with the triangle apex

 

[frugi]

Failed to touch the top on the third cycle ( & after a brutal bull trap too).

BEARISH!

 

[Finirama]

Maybe traders enjoying their morning profits and still having lunch....but should have broken by now...so starting to doubt whether it is a triangle or not???

 

[frugi]

Aye I thought they usually break 2/3 of the way along, but there's quite a few in Jiler's chart book that break right at the apex and still lead to a big move. Come on lads/lasses finish your expensive lunch and get back to the trading floor - we need volume!

 

[stoploss please]

Tick going positive

May a new up break at the 1.30 pivot

 

[stoploss please]

VXN not moving

Please turn bullish