The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 8th November 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6240, up 16pts [0.26%]
Range: 6244 - 6219.

Last 5 TD: up 1.81%
OTM: up 1.81%.

DOW
12156, up 51pts [0.42%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.63%.
OTM: up 0.63%

S&P 500
1382.84, up 3.06pts [0.22%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.36%.
OTM: up 0.36%

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on Tuesday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average to a fresh all-time high, as investors bet that midterm elections would leave Congress gridlocked and keep legislators from doing anything to damage business.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s 1-3 day were neutral and Intraday supported an early rise. Wednesday’s 1-3 day are undecided and Intraday sees a drop.

The PoM System, –2.50, interpretation: a moderate chance of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
RENTOKIL INITIAL

Economic Data:
None UK.

BOE now on 9th November.


The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: data was correct, the markets still had a tad more rise left in them. Will we see another rise tomorrow? Charts for all three markets show a gradual tailing off over the last two hours of trading. Charts and PoM agree on a southern move; CR is tame and no ED; the FTSE is over-par; data says a 12pt rise is possible against a more likely drop of 17-35pts; SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 17pts

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? Will be watching the markets to see if they lend support to a southern drop.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[aspex]

SB down to 6218/22 bid/offer at 03.00 or 24 points.

 

[aspex]

SB up to 6250 mid.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 9th November 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6239, down 5pts [0.08%]
Range: 6244 - 6205.

Last 5 TD: up 1.45%
OTM: up 1.78%.

DOW
12176, up 19pts [0.16%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.21%.
OTM: up 0.80%

S&P 500
1385.72, up 2.88pts [0.21%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.31%.
OTM: up 0.57%

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, pushing the Dow to a record closing high, as news that U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld will step down and a jump in technology shares offset uncertainty a day after the elections about whether the Democrats will regain control of the Senate.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s 1-3 day were undecided and Intraday saw a drop. Thursday’s have no clear clues as to direction.

The PoM System, –1.5, interpretation: a slim chance of a dip. Also recommends a no bet.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
3i
BT
International Power
Man Group
Royal & Sun Alliance
Sabmiller

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Trade in goods & services
12:00 UK Bank of England rate announcement Nov 4.75% 5.00%
13:30 US Jobless claims
13:30 US Trade balance Sep
15:00 US University of Michigan confidence
15:00 US Wholesale inventories

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets of late have become exceptionally unpredictable. This will, of course, have a knock on effect with the FTSE. And if these markets could be given a gender it would certainly be female as they seem to be prone to changing their minds!

Charts are unclear and the PoM favours the dip; CR results overall are expected to range between expected to excellent and a heavy day for the ED both for UK and US – could be bumpy! So hold onto your hat! Market news is mixed but still positive and the SB companies have the FTSE opening up a little over its pre-close. In all, not a day for the armature. Keep your SG tight.

Early gut feeling: It’s gunna be interesting tomorrow.

Will I bet? I played the Oil baron today and did well [and I’m glad I stayed away from the DOW], but the data on Oil price tomorrow is unclear. Tomorrow is a gambling day. So, "You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"

Clint Eastwood – Dirty Harry [1971]

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours, and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 10th November 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6231, down 7pts [0.12%]
Range: 6250 - 6205.

Last 5 TD: up 1.34%
OTM: up 1.66%.

DOW
12103, down 73pts [0.60%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.71%.
OTM: up 0.20%

S&P 500
1378.33, down 7.39pts [0.53%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.81%.
OTM: up 0.04%

News items of note:
Bank of England lifts interest rates to 5%
LONDON (ShareCast) - As expected the Bank of England hiked interest rates by a quarter point to 5% today, as it moved to tame inflation after a series of strong economic reports.

The move follows the quarter point hike in August and means borrowing costs are now standing at a five year high.

The Bank (TBHS - news) said that while household spending has been volatile, the underlying picture has been one of moderate expansion with a positive outlook for growth in the UK's main export markets.

"CPI (NYSE: CPY - news) inflation was 2.4% in September. It is likely that inflation will rise further above the target in the near term, but then fall back as energy and import price inflation abate," said the BoE.

It added that an increase in the base rate of 0.25% to 5.0% was "necessary to bring CPI inflation back to the target in the medium term" said the Bank.

The decision was widely expected by the City after a string of reports underlined the strength of the economy. Earlier today Halifax said house prices jumped again in October, up 1.7%.

While the manufacturing industry seems to be cooling down, recent reports on the service sector and construction industry also showed strong growth.

Attention is now focused on whether rates will need to go up again early next year, with another rise already being touted for February.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s had no clear clue as to direction. Friday’s favour the down.

The PoM System, –2.0, interpretation: a slim chance of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None UK

Economic Data:
None UK.

US Holiday.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE appears somewhat over-par compared to our American cousins. Charts and PoM favour the down; no CR or ED and it’s a US holiday tomorrow. SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 17pts.


Early gut feeling: favour the down.

Will I bet? prefer a ‘Down on the day’ binary tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours, and good trading

UK

 

[hhass1]

End of Year FTSE 2006

Any forecast for the closing price of the FTSE end of year 2006 ?

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 13th November 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6208, down 23pts [0.37%]
Range: 6233 - 6198.

Last 5 TD: up 0.98%
OTM: up 1.29%.

DOW
12108, up 5pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.02%.
OTM: up 0.24%

S&P 500
1380.9, up 2.57pts [0.19%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.22%.
OTM: up 0.23%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s favoured the down. Monday’s 1-3 day are unclear but the Intraday favours the rise.

The PoM System, +3.0, interpretation: a moderate chance of a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
HSBC

Busy week ahead.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI core output
09:30 UK DCLG house prices


The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets reversal on Friday should give the FTSE an early morning helping hand; charts and PoM favour the rise; a major FTSE player reporting tomorrow, results are expected to be positive and this should lift the banking sector, ED is moderate; SB companies have the FTSE opening up 10pts.


Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? I fancy the Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

Any forecast for the closing price of the FTSE end of year 2006 ?

What a good question for the FTSE column.

If I get it right will you give me half your profit?

My guess based on homework: 6313

yours

UK

 

[hhass1]

is it worth holding for a long position..or take the profit and run ( in case of a correction ) ?

 

[ukhero]

is it worth holding for a long position..or take the profit and run ( in case of a correction ) ?

Hi hhass1,


If you’re referring to today’s trade, the FTSE is stagnating at 6230; the Nikkei’s medium tumble on bad ED won’t do any favours with the US markets which in turn will effect the FTSE; oil is up but the oil sector is struggling to make any headway; banking sector is up as anticipated and the Miners are still down but may reverse today’s early losses to end the day close to evens. A mixed bag really.

In all, the FTSE can shuffle down easier then up. Not sure which way the US markets will swing, so I’ve closed my Long @ 6210-6231 for a minor gain. I’m happy.

 

[olliel9]

Long Position

Do you feel that there is position here for a long stance 6201 (FTSE100) All the indicators are saying south, but i feel there could be a few points to take here???

 

[Hook Shot]

Was thinking the same thing ollie with my stop below fridays 198 lows - don't want too much risk

 

[ukhero]

Do you feel that there is position here for a long stance 6201 (FTSE100) All the indicators are saying south, but i feel there could be a few points to take here???

Pre-open for wall street has seen a drop of 15pts so far today, best wait until we see which hat the US markets wear. Although I favour a southern move for the DOW & SP500 its stil a tad early for me to enter the market.

If your data say's South you shouldn't be scalping North.

FTSE @ 6202, and it's looking as if it may hold.

I've made my days profit and I'm now out of the FTSE. Hereafter is looking a wee-bit debatable. Yes 6200 should show resistance, but if the US slides any further south prior to open we’ll see the FTSE dip below 6200 and then slide, within minutes, a further 12-18pts.

I’m happy to watch.

UK

 

[Hook Shot]

Wise words Uk - what's the downside on ftse ..........near term ?

 

[olliel9]

Your are not wrong UK-hero:

I am glad i held back to see - thanks for the advice.

Thanks

Ollie

 

[ukhero]

Wise words Uk - what's the downside on ftse ..........near term ?

I've been looking at data for the past 15 minutes wondering why the FTSE was holding the 6200 position for so long only to find that my network cable had strangely come loose at the back of my computer. Durrrr!


Are we talking Intraday or 1-3 days?

Intraday is still undecided as it all hinges on how the US performs up to 4:30pm. As it stands, 6200 has come and gone and we are still seeing a falling market, bears outnumber the bulls 3 to 2. So at the moment it favours the southern move.

1-3 days is seeing a lot of heavy key FTSE players providing company results and I believe we'll have a higher degree of profit taking, also key economic results. It’s going to be interesting. And I've found, over the years, that when it’s interesting its more likely to head south then north.

FTSE @ 6177.

 

[Hook Shot]

Cable problems....
Cheers I was wondering cos Bill Mclaren was uncomfy about ftse thinking theer was a top but needing to break 6200fut on close today to get more downside testing. He then thinks we couls see 6120/30fut so yes it could get interesting.

However, dow and dx are looking resilient so far..........

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 14th November 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6202, down 5pts [0.09%]
Range: 6239 - 6171.

Last 5 TD: down 0.35%
OTM: up 1.20%.

DOW
12131, up 23pts [0.19%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.22%.
OTM: up 0.43%

S&P 500
1384.42, up 3.52pts [0.25%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.34%.
OTM: up 0.48%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s 1-3 day were unclear but the Intraday favoured the rise. Tuesday’s 1-3 day sees either a weak rise or a medium dip, the Intraday favours the down.

The PoM System, +0.75, interpretation: a weak chance of a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Alliance Boots AB.L UK H1 BMO
Intercontinental Hotels IHG.L UK Q3 07:00
Schroders SDR.L UK Trading BMO
Scottish Power SPW.L UK H1 BMO
VodafoneAlliance Boots AB.L UK H1 BMO
Intercontinental Hotels IHG.L UK Q3 07:00
Schroders SDR.L UK Trading BMO
Scottish Power SPW.L UK H1 BMO
Vodafone

Economic Data:
09:30 UK CPI -RPI month
FOMC minutes.

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE stumbled today dragged down by the heavy fall in the mining sector and the minor dip in the Oil sector. Will they reverse tomorrow? Brent Crude is now under priced, so oil, strong chance, yes. Miners, I’m expecting a reverse or a weak down, the former will greatly boost the market and the latter should have little impact. Lets see.

Tomorrow, the FTSE is still over-par in comparison to the US markets, and as today shows, is susceptible to the slightest negative movement of said markets. Charts have no clear direction but see a weak dip; the PoM favours the weak rise; CR is colossal with an above average number of heavy weights reporting, not sure if we’ll see heavy profit taking here, but market sentiment favours it; ED is tame; the US FOMC minutes is the one to watch but thankfully this is after the FTSE closes.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 8pts.

Even with today’s rise the US markets are loosing strength. This is worrying. All three markets are still looking for an excuse to pack their bags and head south, but of late have found none. If a spark is found the markets will slide heavily south [my estimate: 2% within five days]. As it is, I see them hovering within 0.75% of their present positions until the end of the month.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? My Long did well today. Tomorrow, I just don’t know. I think it’s best to sit and watch, better still, walk the dog.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[olliel9]

any ideas on where the market is going this morning??

 

[ukhero]

any ideas on where the market is going this morning??

Yup, up, then down, up again and then back down.

I'm not in the market today and looking at the Intraday chart I'm glad I walked the dog.

UK