The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 8th December 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6131, up 41pts [0.68%]
Range: 6145 - 6082.

Last 5 TD: up 1.36%
OTM: up 1.36%.

DOW
12278, down 30pts [0.25%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.47%.
OTM: up 0.47%

S&P 500
1407.29, down 5.61pts [0.40%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.48%.
OTM: up 0.48%

News items of note:
Telegraph – ‘rates raised in Euroland:
The European Central Bank has raised interest rates a sixth time in a year to 3.5pc and signalled more to come in the face of mounting wage pressures in Germany.’

Also:

The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 5pc amid further signs of a booming housing market.


‘Economists say rates could still rise in the New Year
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the cost of borrowing unchanged after increases in August and November took rates to the current five-year high.

Today's decision was seen as "a dead cert" by economists and the markets, particularly with the US economy showing signs of weakness and consumer confidence in the UK under threat from rising taxes and household bills.

The fragile finances of the UK consumer have left the high street facing one of its toughest Christmas trading periods for a quarter of a century.’

But the Bank came under renewed pressure to raise rates again next year after Halifax said average house prices lifted 1.7pc last month to almost £188,000.



Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s showed that the steady downtrend is weakening in strength and purpose [and this still stands], was unclear in regards to the Intraday, but did see a change coming. Friday’s 1-3 day again favours the down but only slightly, and again, is susceptible to a change. The Intraday sees a down.

The PoM System, AM: –5.50, interpretation: a strong chance of the FTSE ending the day down.


The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
ASSOCIAT BRIT FOODS

Economic Data:
13:30 US Non-farm payrolls [the one to watch]
15:00 US University of Michigan confidence

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: … having finished work I shuffled to the bus stop and waited with the other Traders for a number 42. Yes it was a bad day. Enough said.

Charts are still unclear, but the PoM has a strong [and worrying] prediction for a southern dip; CR is tame, no UK ED but the US ED is the one to watch; business news is again stale.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 8pts.

For the week: up.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? methinks I closed my Long to early. Hay ho! Scalped today and had my worst day ever in the history of scalping. As it stands, I’m a strong contender for the ‘Worst Intraday Scalper’ of the year award! I need time to reflect and lick my wounds. Will sit and watch tomorrow.


If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[catracho]

Looks like FTSE in 6000 -6130 range..needs to break above 6130 convincingly to have a shot at 6250 again..
MACD may be turning up, RSI is neutral, US figs this afternoon are key at least for the near term direction.

 

[olliel9]

Hi,

There seems to be some support @ current levels 6120 - does anyone else feel that the 13:30 result is looking positive? If so any feedback on trading stratergies would be appreciated.

Thanks

Ollie

 

[hobby]

The FTSE has been rather perky & resilient over the past day or two ....& IMHO looking to leap higher.

I reckon the job report due at 13.30hrs will be spun to be good (ie job report bad = more chance of IR cut = good for market, or job report healthy = economy strong = good for market).

In my opinion, the Dow has at least one last run in it...& that's likely to take it above it's all time high (about 85 points away from where it closed last night). Therefore if I'm right & they 'spin' it positively, then there's a fair bit of upside for the FTSE at these levels.

Unbelievably, I have a short running from yest which I've just covered by forcing up the same size long, therefore I'm waiting on the sidelines until there's some clearer indication of the reaction to the 13.30hrs figs before deciding which position to run.

 

[kriesau]

Bolton places put option on equities
Daily Telegraph: 08/12/2006
James Quinn

Anthony Bolton, one of the City's most influential fund managers, appears to have called the top of the equity market for the second time in a year. Mr Bolton has placed a put option on UK equities as a sign that he is cautious on the prospects of the British stock market. It is understood that Mr Bolton has bought a put option - which effectively sells the market - on both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE AllShare indices.

Mr Bolton, who is know in the City as the "quiet assassin" for the power he has wielded in the past, and his views are seen by many as a bellwether for the UK equity markets. This is the second time in a year he has used such a technique to bet against the market. The first time he did this was at the end of March when he took out a three-month "put" option on the FTSE 100 index. The blue-chip index promptly fell by 10pc between April 21 & May 22.

At the time he headed Fidelity's highly successful Special Situations fund. But the fund was split into two earlier this year - with Jorman Korhone appointed to manage the global half, with Mr Bolton managing the UK part until the end of next year. News of the latest put option came from Mr Bolton's colleague Richard Skelt, CIO of Fidelity's multi-manager team. "Anthony has taken out another put option. There is a mood of caution," he said.

A spokesman for Fidelity declined to comment further.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 11th December 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6152, up 20pts [0.34%]
Range: 6157 - 6106.

Last 5 TD: up 2.16%
OTM: up 1.71%.

DOW
12307, up 29pts [0.24%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.93%.
OTM: up 0.70%

S&P 500
1409.84, up 2.55pts [0.18%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.94%.
OTM: up 0.66%

News items of note:
Worth a read: ‘Iron Chancellor drowns us in debt’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/10/ccliam10.xml


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s 1-3 day favoured the down but only slightly, and again, was susceptible to a change. The Intraday also favoured the down. Monday’s 1-3 is in neutral territory and Intraday sees a weak rise.

The PoM System,: +0.25, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day up.


The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Lloyds
[Heavy week ahead for the UK]

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI Nov
09:30 UK Trades in goods and services Oct
15:00 US Wholesale inventories

The FTSE Friday and Monday based on present news and data: Friday started with a shaky dip, and the closer it nudged the 6100 position the weaker the dip became, therefore consider the 6100 to be a strong resistance level in the days ahead. At the other end of the scale, the 6205 position could be considered as the top line with 6160 as the middle for the coming week.

Charts are still unclear for the week ahead, the Intraday sees a rise and the PoM also; CR is tame, and ED moderate.

SB companies have the FTSE opening at evens.

For the week: close to evens.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: a small rise.

Will I bet? Nope.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 12th December 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6159, up 7pts [0.12%]
Range: 6187 - 6147.

Last 5 TD: up 1.80%
OTM: up 1.83%.

DOW
12328, up 21pts [0.17%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.36%.
OTM: up 0.87%

S&P 500
1413.04, up 3.20pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.28%.
OTM: up 0.89%

News items of note:
Worth a read: ‘Banking rumours keep FTSE ticking’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/11/bcnmarkets11.xml

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s 1-3 shuffled into neutral territory and the Intraday saw a rise. Tuesday’s 1-3 remain neutral and the Intraday favours the down.

The PoM System,: –1.75, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE ending the day down. Also recomends a 'No bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
CADBURY SCHWEPPES

Economic Data:
09:30 UK CPI
FOMC Policy Statement (US) (14:15)
Trade Balance (US) (08:30)

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: even with the news of takeovers the FTSE struggled to make any decent headway today as investors are holding back until the FOMC decision.

Charts remain unclear long term but see a down early morning, the PoM also for early morning; CR and UK ED is tame, but the US ED is the one to watch; market sentiment is mixed.

SB companies have the FTSE opening at evens.

For the week: close to evens.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? Nope.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 13th December 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6156, down 3pts [0.06%]
Range: 6164 - 6137.

Last 5 TD: up 1.15%
OTM: up 1.77%.

DOW
12315, down 12pts [0.10%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.13%.
OTM: up 0.77%

S&P 500
1411.56, down 1.48pts [0.10%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.23%.
OTM: up 0.78%

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday held benchmark interest rates steady at 5.25 percent for a fourth straight meeting, while renewing a warning that risks from inflation remain.’

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s 1-3 remained neutral and the Intraday favoured the down. Wednesday’s 1-3 and Intraday have no clearly defined direction.

The PoM System,: -1.00, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
ALL & LEICS
DRAX GROUP

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Unemployment Nov
13:30 US Retail sales

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets were pretty confident that the FOMC rate would remain unchanged, even so, it seems no one knows which direction to head next. Subsequently, Wednesday through to Friday will be strange in regards to North or South. Expect plenty of shuffling and deliberation.

Charts remain unclear, the PoM favours the dip; CR is tame and ED moderate; market sentiment has switched to negative.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 4pts.

For the week: close to evens.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: I have a feeling that which ever way the market heads early morning will be a false move. Lets see.

Will I bet? I intend to hold back. If the market moves North with conviction early morning I’ll be looking for signs of a southern move. If none found I’ll sit back and watch. I don’t like neutral/deliberating markets.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 14th December 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6192, up 36pts [0.59%]
Range: 6196 - 6149.

Last 5 TD: up 0.65%
OTM: up 2.36%.

DOW
12315, up 2pts [0.02%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.02%.
OTM: up 0.78%

S&P 500
1413.21, up 1.65pts [0.12%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.02%.
OTM: up 0.90%

News items of note:

Telegraph – ‘Unemployment unexpectedly fell in the three months to October as average wages rose faster than expected, boosting speculation of another rise in interest rates next year.

The Office for National Statistics said the number of people claiming jobless benefit fell by 5,700 in November - its sharpest drop in nearly two years which confounded forecasts for a rise of 3,500.

The internationally comparable ILO measure of unemployment also fell unexpectedly to 5.5pc.’

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s 1-3 and Intraday had no clear defined direction. Thursday’s 1-3 show a switch from neutral to a rise but Intraday remains neutral.

The PoM System,: –0.50, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
CAPITA GRP
HBOS

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Retail sales Nov
13:30 US Jobless claims

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE thought about heading south, just for a while, then on it went, in fact, it ignored the US markets deliberation which proved refreshing. IMO, expect the FTSE to end the month on a healthy plus providing tomorrow’s ED doesn’t spoil the broth!


Charts 1-3 say up, the Intraday is neutral, the PoM has a weak possibility of a down; CR is expected to be positive but the ED should be watched closely. The retail sector has been a touch shy of late and could rattle the market. Market sentiment appears positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up at evens.

For the week: close to evens.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? Nope.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 15th December 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6228, up 35pts [0.57%]
Range: 6230 - 6192.

Last 5 TD: up 1.57%
OTM: up 2.93%.

DOW
12416 up 99pts [0.81%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.12%.
OTM: up 1.59%

S&P 500
1425.49, up 12.28pts [0.87%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.29%.
OTM: up 1.77%

News items of note:

Telegraph – ‘Strong trading by internet and mail order firms helped retail sales rise faster than expected last month, which is likely to increase the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates early next year.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes were 0.3pc higher than in October, while the month was 3.2pc stronger than a year ago. Analysts had forecast a 0.1pc rise.’


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s 1-3 showed a switch from neutral to a rise but the Intraday remained neutral. Friday’s continue to show an upward trend, the Intraday @ 6244 appears to show a top.

The PoM System,: +0.50, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day up.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
GALLAHER GRP
Economic Data:
None UK
13:30 US Industrial Production
13:30 US CPI

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE continued its laconic advance today without much ado, and if not for the miners would have ended the day close to evens, but the US markets appeared swap slippers for trainers.

Charts say up, the PoM a weak up; CR is expected to be positive and no ED. Market sentiment appears positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 8pts.

For the week: close to evens.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: a small rise.

Will I bet? Nope.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[hhass1]

Bolton places put option on equities
Daily Telegraph: 08/12/2006
James Quinn

Anthony Bolton, one of the City's most influential fund managers, appears to have called the top of the equity market for the second time in a year. Mr Bolton has placed a put option on UK equities as a sign that he is cautious on the prospects of the British stock market. It is understood that Mr Bolton has bought a put option - which effectively sells the market - on both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE AllShare indices.

Mr Bolton, who is know in the City as the "quiet assassin" for the power he has wielded in the past, and his views are seen by many as a bellwether for the UK equity markets. This is the second time in a year he has used such a technique to bet against the market. The first time he did this was at the end of March when he took out a three-month "put" option on the FTSE 100 index. The blue-chip index promptly fell by 10pc between April 21 & May 22.

At the time he headed Fidelity's highly successful Special Situations fund. But the fund was split into two earlier this year - with Jorman Korhone appointed to manage the global half, with Mr Bolton managing the UK part until the end of next year. News of the latest put option came from Mr Bolton's colleague Richard Skelt, CIO of Fidelity's multi-manager team. "Anthony has taken out another put option. There is a mood of caution," he said.

A spokesman for Fidelity declined to comment further.

I think he has got it wrong, the way its going...it wont be long before we hit the 7000 mark...

Any thoughts ?

H

 

[dcarrigan]

I think he has got it wrong, the way its going...it wont be long before we hit the 7000 mark...

Any thoughts ?

H

dont be sure.
deep pockets and has 3 months.

 

[Hook Shot]

I think he has got it wrong, the way its going...it wont be long before we hit the 7000 mark...

Any thoughts ?

H

There's very little that Fidelity does not know......
If there is going to be a bit of turbulence they are big enough to know ..... when and how.

I heard once that '87 panic was an "experiment"........ but that's probably total nonsense as the person who told me was one of those conspiracy nuts ...... ?

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 18th December 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6260, up 32pts [0.51%]
Range: 6271 - 6228.

Last 5 TD: up 1.74%
OTM: up 3.44%.

DOW
12445 up 28pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.12%.
OTM: up 1.82%

S&P 500
1427.09, up 1.60pts [0.11%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.22%.
OTM: up 1.88%

News items of note:

Worth a read: ‘China, at energy summit, urges oil consumers to unite’
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061216/bs_nm/energy_consumer_summit_dc_2

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s continued to show an upward trend and the Intraday @ 6244 appeared to show the top. Monday’s 1-3 day show a weakening rise, the Intraday a move south.

The PoM System,: –2.0, interpretation: a moderate chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None UK and not much in the pipeline for the week ahead.

Economic Data:
None UK

The FTSE Friday and Monday based on present news and data: the FTSE’s sitting on a high, but this coming week wont be doing the market any additional favours as there’s very little in ED or CR to push it higher. Therefore the most likely event would be a minor retraction or a general shuffle around its present position as it’s the season to be jolly and December is generally quite buoyant in the final week before Christmas.


Charts and PoM for tomorrow say down; no CR or ED; market sentiment appears to be calm.

At time of writing, SB companies have the FTSE opening down a heavy 22pts. If this isn’t corrected in the 7am–8am period the market will open up nervous. And no one likes a nervous market, except the Bears of course.

For the week: Don’t know.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: a drop.

Will I bet? Already south.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

I think he has got it wrong, the way its going...it wont be long before we hit the 7000 mark...

Any thoughts ?

H

Well, he knows the markets far more then I. And it wouldn’t hurt the markets to slide back in a similar fashion to the one back in May 9th to May 22nd [6106 – 5543], but I can see the markets holding the 6150 – 6245 range until year end.

So I would say ‘Yes, it can happen, but I fancy early January.’


UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 19th December 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6247, down 12pts [0.20%]
Range: 6271 - 6228.

Last 5 TD: up 1.42%
OTM: up 3.24%.

DOW
12441 down 4pts [0.03%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.96%.
OTM: up 1.79%

S&P 500
1422.48, down 4.61pts [0.132].

Last 5 TD: up 0.67%.
OTM: up 1.56%

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s continued to show an upward trend and the Intraday @ 6244 appeared to show the top. Monday’s 1-3 day showed a weakening rise, the Intraday a move south. Tuesday’s 1-3 continue to show a weak rise and the Intraday still favours a drop, but again not by much.

The PoM System,: –0.75, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Hanson [positive results are expected]

Economic Data:
00:30 UK RICS
13:30 US PPI (month)
13:30 US Housing Starts

The FTSE Monday and Tuesday based on present news and data: the FTSE can now be regarded as sitting neither too high nor too low. It’s where it should be. Today the FTSE went shopping and couldn’t decide on shoes or handbag, such was its deliberation and there’s a strong possibility of similar to come over the coming week.


Charts and PoM for tomorrow say down; CR is expected to be positive but not expected to shuffle the market, ED for UK and US is tame; market sentiment appears to be positive, but there seems to be an overly amount of stock swapping, so tomorrow may end up as per today - close to evens.

Areas to watch: Miners [expecting another small dip], Oil [same, a general shuffle] Banking sector [don't know - been watching this area closely and I'm still unsure]. Any major shuffle in either of these three areas will tilt the market in that direction.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 10pts.

For the week: slight down.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: too close a call.

Will I bet? Closed my Short for a pitiful gain. Not sure of which way tomorrow. May scalp.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[hhass1]

The FTSE, Tuesday 19th December 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6247, down 12pts [0.20%]
Range: 6271 - 6228.

Last 5 TD: up 1.42%
OTM: up 3.24%.

DOW
12441 down 4pts [0.03%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.96%.
OTM: up 1.79%

S&P 500
1422.48, down 4.61pts [0.132].

Last 5 TD: up 0.67%.
OTM: up 1.56%

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s continued to show an upward trend and the Intraday @ 6244 appeared to show the top. Monday’s 1-3 day showed a weakening rise, the Intraday a move south. Tuesday’s 1-3 continue to show a weak rise and the Intraday still favours a drop, but again not by much.

The PoM System,: –0.75, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Hanson [positive results are expected]

Economic Data:
00:30 UK RICS
13:30 US PPI (month)
13:30 US Housing Starts

The FTSE Monday and Tuesday based on present news and data: the FTSE can now be regarded as sitting neither too high nor too low. It’s where it should be. Today the FTSE went shopping and couldn’t decide on shoes or handbag, such was its deliberation and there’s a strong possibility of similar to come over the coming week.


Charts and PoM for tomorrow say down; CR is expected to be positive but not expected to shuffle the market, ED for UK and US is tame; market sentiment appears to be positive, but there seems to be an overly amount of stock swapping, so tomorrow may end up as per today - close to evens.

Areas to watch: Miners [expecting another small dip], Oil [same, a general shuffle] Banking sector [don't know - been watching this area closely and I'm still unsure]. Any major shuffle in either of these three areas will tilt the market in that direction.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 10pts.

For the week: slight down.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: too close a call.

Will I bet? Closed my Short for a pitiful gain. Not sure of which way tomorrow. May scalp.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

Do you have history data of The PoM System values you have been quoting ( over the last 6-12 months ), ideally in spread sheet or text file.

Cheers
H

 

[ukhero]

Do you have history data of The PoM System values you have been quoting ( over the last 6-12 months ), ideally in spread sheet or text file.

Cheers
H

Answer, Yes.

I keep meticulous records of several factors [Excel]. I write copious notes. All of which aid me in my infantile understanding of the Markets.

I get it right. I get it wrong. But each time whether right or wrong I learn. Data is adjusted, chart analysis analysed, systems tweaked.

Your next question is, ‘ what is the overall result?’

My final aim is to provide readers with the ‘Yearly result’ come early January. In general, the PoM system was devised to provide an additional supplement to other signals to provide a better understanding of where the market may go prior to opening. It is not a stand-alone.

It’s done as I had hoped. As with all signals it removes the emotional element of trading and provides the user with a basic factor to work from.

So far this month: 7 right 2 wrong and 3 ‘no bets’. But it’s a bad month. A pitiful 19pts made so far [worst month to date].

I will say, without spoiling matters, a high factor of ‘5 and above’ is running at 88%, and a low factor of 0-1 is exactly at evens.

Look forward to reading further comments from you.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 20th December 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6203, down 44pts [0.70%]
Range: 6247 - 6192.

Last 5 TD: up 0.77%
OTM: up 2.54%.

DOW
12471 up 30pts [0.24%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.26%.
OTM: up 2.03%

S&P 500
1425.55, up 3.07pts [0.22%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.99%.
OTM: up 1.77%

News items of note:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – ‘U.S. producer prices posted their largest gain in more than three decades last month as energy and vehicles prices jumped, while home building rebounded from a six-year low.

A spike in energy prices sent the producer price index up 2 percent, the largest increase since a matching rise in November 1974, the Labor Department said on Tuesday.

At the same time, prices excluding volatile food and energy costs climbed 1.3 percent, the biggest gain since July 1980, as car and light truck prices bounced back from an October drop.

However, stripping out vehicle prices, core producer prices were up just 0.2 percent and analysts said the report did not signal a sudden resurgence of inflationary pressures.’

Also worth a read: Buoyant housing market set to continue…

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,16849-2511051,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=Business

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s 1-3 continued to show a weak rise and the Intraday still favoured a drop [although a small one]; Wednesday’s 1-3 show a run for a stronger upward turn, the Intraday shows a weak rise is possible.


The PoM System, AM: +4.25, interpretation: a strong chance of the FTSE rising before the US markets open.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Corus

Economic Data:
09:30 UK BOE minutes Dec
09:30 UK Public finances
11:00 UK CBI distributed trades report


The FTSE Tuesday and Wednesday based on present news and data: the FTSE’s tumble today was well overdone – but as it stands, it wouldn’t surprise me if tomorrow it clawed most of it back.

Charts see a weak rise and PoM a strong rise; CR may be negative but the ED is the one to watch; at the moment business news and market sentiment is positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 8pts.

For the week: slight down.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? Closed my short yesterday a tad too early! Scalping went well today. Tomorrow – after ED results - Long, will close if US markets start to dip.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 21st December 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6198, down 5pts [0.09%]
Range: 6240 - 6197.

Last 5 TD: up 0.10%
OTM: up 2.45%.

DOW
12463 down 7pts [0.06%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.19%.
OTM: up 1.97%

S&P 500
1423.53, down 2.02pts [0.14%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.73%.
OTM: up 1.63%

News items of note:

Worth a read: Bank of England voted…

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/20122006/94/bank-england-voted-9-0-steady-rates.html

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s 1-3 showed a run for a stronger upward turn, the Intraday showed that a weak rise was possible. Thursday’s 1-3 day are unclear and the Intraday shows that today’s end of day drop can still go further down.


The PoM System, AM: +3, interpretation: a strong chance of the FTSE rising and before the US markets open.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
PERSIMMON PLC

Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP
09:30 UK Current account balance
13:30 US GDP
13:30 US Initial Jobless claims
15:00 US Leading indicators Nov
17:00 US Philadelphia Fed Dec

The FTSE Wednesday and Thursday based on present news and data: the FTSE’s slow grinding reversal today was not a complete surprise with its stronger element of profit taking and a dip in the Mining and Oil sectors. This is no expected tomorrow but can not be ruled out. Early morning movement wil tell.

Tomorrow isn’t looking all that clearer as we seem to have moved away from deliberation and are now in a period of uncertainty, which can be best described as moving from a 'B' class lane to a Motorway with several possible exits! Expect strange and un-chart like swings over the coming days.

Charts are unclear but the PoM sees another early rise; CR is tame but the ED for both UK and US is the one to watch; at the moment business news and market sentiment is quiet.

At the moment, SB companies have the FTSE opening down a heavy 16pts.

For the week: slight down.

For the month: up

Early gut feeling: none.

Will I bet? Held back this morning as I didn’t like the look of the market. Just as well. Tomorrow isn’t looking any brighter one way or another. Intend to hold back until the market shows which way it’s sailing.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK