The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 2nd October 2006

Fridays results:
Close:5960, down 10pts [0.17%]
Range: 6002 - 5960.

Last 5 TD: up 2.37%.
OTM: +0.98%.

Even though the FTSE has risen sharply over the past 4 days it's still behind the DOW by 2.28% and so it has room to shuffle North without feeling too top heavy. At the moment it sits in a high quadrant [average of 1-9 days] and a low quadrant [average of 15-25 days]. Historical data says a rise by 27pts, ish, is possible, against a fall of 8pts, ish. Lets see.

DOW
11679, down 39pts [0.34%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.48%.
OTM: 2.61%

S&P 500
1335.85, down 3.30pts [0.25%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.60%.
OTM: 2.45%

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks may test record highs next week as muted oil prices take centrer stage. But the September jobs report on Friday could keep traders cautious and upend a rally.
Though the Dow Jones industrial average made a run at its all-time closing high this week, next week may offer the blue-chip stock gauge its chance to close above its record highs, analysts said. Without much economic data until later in the week, traders will keep watching crude oil prices for clues.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts:Fridays were hovering in neutral with no strong indication of either up or down but favoured the down. Mondays still have no strong indication but favour a further, minor southern move.

The PoM System: +1.5, interpretation: a weak chance of a rise.

Note: the PoM system favours the first TD of the month, without the addition the result would be: -2.5, which would favour a minor drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
SEVERN TRENT

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI manufacturing
BOE and ECB both on the 5th October; no FOMC in October.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the first TD of the month historically favours the rise quite dramatically; all UK and US markets are sitting between neutral and high which is a bad position for marketeers to predict. Charts are still neutral; the PoM favours the rise if you follow the first of the month scenario; CR and ED is tame. SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 6pts.

Early gut feeling: neutral

Will I bet? I intend to go a small Long purely on data. SG at 20 pts on open. The first of the month genuinely favours the rise, but the 2nd October is mixed. Add caution to your betting strategy.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

wats ur % rate regarding the POM getting it right???

Good question.

Without mincing words and data: 63%

Going more into depth:

Low factor [0-1pt] exactly 50%

High factor [5pt] 93%

This month, overall: 68%

Total points gained this month [after deduction for incorrect days] 773pts [multiplied by points factor]. This does not take into account stop gap or the 2pt leverage for the FTSE for each trade.

Its done well this month. The principal of adhering to a points system means that, when its right, the FTSE's movement is dramatically greater in regards to points made versus days wrong points lost. Does that make sense?

Good trading

UK Hero

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 3rd October 2006

Mondays results:
Close:5957, down 3pts [0.05%]
Range: 5985 - 5950.

Last 5 TD: up 2.73%.
OTM: -0.05%.

DOW
11670, down 8pts [0.07%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.82%.
OTM: -0.07%

S&P 500
1331.32, down 4.53pts [0.34%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.38%.
OTM: -0.34%

News items of note:
FT.com - 'Internet gaming stocks plunged in London on Monday as the sector acknowledged the threat to revenues from new US legislation. The Safe Ports Act, which was passed by Congress on Friday, contains provisions that effectively prohibit US gamblers from making online wagers.

If, as expected, the Act is passed by President George Bush later this month then PartyGaming and 888 Holdings, the UK’s two largest gaming companies, said they would be forced to stop accepting bets from US gamblers. The development, the latest in a series of measures aimed at clamping down on the industry, is another devasting blow to a sector already under severe pressure. PartyGaming slid 58 per cent to an all-time low of 44¾p while 888 lost 26.1 per cent to 109p.' - Ouch!

Timesonline - 'Strong manufacturing boosts rate hike chance. Manufacturing activity rebounded strongly last month, bolstering the case for a further interest rate rise this year, possibly as early as Thursday.

Charts, and nothing but the charts:Mondays still had no strong indication but favoured a further, minor southern move. Tuesdays indicate a slide south.

The PoM System: -1.5, interpretation: favours the weak chance of a drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Tesco

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England mortgage equity withdrawal £bn.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all three markets, according to charts, favour a southern dip and the PoM system agrees - although, again, a weak drop; general business news is negative; the mining sector helped prop up the FTSE today and it may well do it again tomorrow, which, if correct, will offset any medium drop; CR may prove interesting and ED is tame. SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 14pts.

Early gut feeling: still neutral edging towards a strong drop.

Will I bet? came out of the market early today and so only made 7pts; a further small bet that the DOW would end up face down [when it was riding a 42pt rise] at end of play did exceptionally well. Tomorrow, as it stands, all data favours a Southern move unless those who have shares in gaming companies buy into other FTSE stock, but this would only be a minor blip in regards to its direction. Even so, I'm not a 100% sure of the markets direction as the FTSE has a habit of surprising Marketeers, so I intend to play it safe and go a small Short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 4th October 2006

Tuesdays results:
Close:5932, down 25pts [0.42%]
Range: 5957 - 5897.

Last 5 TD: up 1.02%.
OTM: -0.47%.

DOW
11727, up 57pts [0.49%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.50%.
OTM: 0.41%

S&P 500
1334.11, up 3.83pts [0.29%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.17%.
OTM: -0.13%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays indicated a slide south. Wednesdays have no clear direction.

The PoM System: +4.75, interpretation: favours the strong possibility of a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BAE Systems EGM
BP Trading
British Airways Traffic

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI Services

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the low price of crude oil is not doing the FTSE any favours but I believe we've seen the worse for the time being; charts are unclear but the PoM sees a strong possibility of a rise; CR should be interesting and ED is tame. SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 12pts.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? swings and roundabouts today, gained on the FTSE - lost on the DOW. Going a medium Long tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 5th October 2006

Wednesdays results:
Close:5963, up 25pts [0.44%]
Range: 5968 - 5921.

Last 5 TD: up 0.49%.
OTM: -0.03%.

DOW
11850, up 123pts [1.05%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.38%.
OTM: 1.46%

S&P 500
1350.22, up 16.11pts [1.21%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.02%.
OTM: 1.08%

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy lost steam in September, data showed on Wednesday, bolstering the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates again and could lower them next year to re-energize the economy. - Hence today's dramatic rise with the US markets.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays had no clear direction. Thursdays [daily] are still undefined as to any one direction but the hourly shows a possible rise over the next two days.

The PoM System: +2.5, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None UK.

Economic Data:
12:00 UK Bank of England rate announcement Oct
12:45 EMU ECB rate announcement Oct
13:30 US Initial jobless claims

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: SB companies have the FTSE opening up by and additional 25pts @ 5987, whether it pushes well beyond this point and continues to jog past the 6000 mark will be dependent on three areas, a] the mining and oil sectors reversing today's losses [mining - strong chance, oil - weak chance], b] the US markets staying flat to rising prior to the FTSE closing, and c] the BOE holding the base rate. Business news appears positive; charts favour a rise in the short term but are unclear in the long term, and the PoM indicates a rise; no CR [a positive] but the ED is the one to watch.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Got my own back on the DOW today. Wednesdays FTSE Long is still running. Tomorrow, will be considering a Binary on the 12-1pm 'up on the hour.'

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 6th 2006

Thursdays results:
Close:6004, up 38pts [0.64%]
Range: 6016 - 5966.

Last 5 TD: up 0.43%.
OTM: +0.60%.

Investors beware. As we've seen many times before, the 6000 mark is a mile stone, more trodden then any other, that's been passed with a skip and a hop on the way up and a mass scramble on the way down, although I do believe it can push up another 20 -25pts before retracting.

DOW
11866, up 16pts [0.14%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.26%.
OTM: 1.60%

S&P 500
1353.22, up 3.00pts [0.22%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.05%.
OTM: 1.30%

Not sure how much more the US markets can rise, they're already hit several indicators which indicate that they've risen too fast. I see a 30pt rise versus a 100pt drop over the next two trading days. Lets see.

News items of note:
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates may not be high enough to quell a recent bout of inflation, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser said on Thursday.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays [daily] were still undefined as to any one direction but the hourly showed a possible rise over the next two days. Fridays are still undefined and indicate very little movement for tomorrow.

The PoM System: -1.25, interpretation: favours the weak possibility of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
DRAX GROUP

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial production Aug
13:30 US Non-farm payrolls
20:00 US Consumer credit Aug

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: with the US markets on a high and the FTSE struggling to get over and keep on jogging past the 6000 mark there is a strong chance of the market rising early only to fall later in the day; charts are unclear and the PoM favours the weak dip; market news is mixed; CR and ED is tame, but the US NFP is the one to watch. SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 3pts.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Wednesdays FTSE Long is still running, SG amended; a Binary on the 12-1pm 'up on the hour' rolled over and fell asleep. There are no strong indicators for tomorrow, best sit back and watch. May scalp.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 9th October 2006

Fridays results:
Close:6001, down 3pts [0.05%]
Range: 6014 - 5978.

Last 5 TD: up 0.55%.
OTM: up 0.55%.

DOW
11850, down 16pts [0.14%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.46%.
OTM: up 1.46%

S&P 500
1349.58, down 3.64pts [0.27%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.03%.
OTM: up 1.03%

News items of note:
Worth a read:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/10/07/cnwind07.xml

Also:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061007/bs_nm/column_stocks_outlook_dc_3

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays were still undefined and indicated very little movement. Mondays are little changed from Fridays observations but do indicate a possible small early rise.

The PoM System: -1.75, interpretation: favours the weak possibility of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI Sep
09:30 UK ODPM house prices

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE is pontificating at the 6000 mark and as such I'm not expecting great leaps beyond this without US support, but the US markets have already fired their bolt and therefore a retraction is much more likely. Charts still remain unclear, but again the PoM favours a miner dip; no CR and ED is not expected to shuffle the market, however, the market is looking for a catalyst to surge in one direction or another so watch closely; on the whole, market related news is negative and SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 9pts.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Last Wednesdays Long is closed. I'm unsure about Monday, intend to watch.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 10th October 2006

Mondays results:
Close:6030, up 29pts [0.49%]
Range: 6014 - 5978.

Last 5 TD: up 1.09%.
OTM: up 1.04%.

DOW
11857, up 7pts [0.06%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.60%.
OTM: up 1.53%

S&P 500
1350.66, up 1.08pts [0.08%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.53%.
OTM: up 1.11%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays indicated a possible small early rise. Tuesdays are unclear.

The PoM System: -3.5, interpretation: a moderate chance of a drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
VEDANTA RESOURCES.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Trade in goods & Services Aug
11:00 UK BRC Sales Monitor Sep

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the bears were looking for a weakness in the market - and there wasn't one! Or was there! If not for the mining and Oil sectors the FTSE would have ended the day between 5-12pts up, hardly a convincing drive North. At the moment the market is still hesitant and waiting for the US markets to show direction; I doubt the mining sector will repeat itself tomorrow but the Oil sector may still have some additional steam; charts are unclear but the PoM continues to favour a drop; CR and ED are tame. Market news is neutral and SB companies have the FTSE opening up by an additional 10pts.

Early gut feeling: boringly neutral.

Will I bet? I don't know where the FTSE is going so I intend to sit back and watch.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 11th October 2006

Tuesdays results:
Close:6072, up 41pts [0.69%]
Range: 6076 - 6030.

Last 5 TD: up 2.21%.
OTM: up 1.74%.

DOW
11867, up 9pts [0.08%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.19%.
OTM: up 1.60%

S&P 500
1353.42, up 2.76pts [0.20%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.45%.
OTM: up 1.32%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays were unclear. Wednesdays see a dip late in the day.

The PoM System: -2, interpretation: a moderate chance of a drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
SAINSBURY

Economic Data:
None UK.
US FOMC minutes.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: assisted mainly by the Oil and banking sectors the FTSE continued its bunny hop march North today without a single pause for breath; charts and PoM both agree on a dip tomorrow; CR is tame and no ED, but the US ED is the one to watch; business news is mixed and the SB companies have the FTSE opening up at evens.

Early gut feeling: a southern move.

Will I bet? Sat back and watched today, got the direction right but that's about all. Too busy at work tomorrow so its the side lines for me. If time permits, a 'Down on the day' Binary.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 12th October 2006

Wednesdays results:
Close:6073, up 0.8pts [0.01%]
Range: 6081 - 6044.

Last 5 TD: up 1.78%.
OTM: up 1.75%.

DOW
11852, down 15pts [0.13%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.01%.
OTM: up 1.48%

S&P 500
1349.95, down 3.47pts [0.26%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.02%.
OTM: up 1.06%

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policy-makers remained "quite concerned" about inflation risks when they met in September, but they kept rates on hold for a second straight time while renewing their commitment to ratcheting down inflation pressures.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays saw a dip late in the day. Thursdays are unclear but favour an early rise, thereafter no indication.

The PoM System: -0.75, interpretation: a slim chance of a drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None UK
Plenty for the US.

Economic Data:
11:00 UK BCC economic survey
13:30 US Trade Balance
13:30 US Initial jobless claims
19:00 US Beige book

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE is showing a remarkable resilience to the 'have a go' Bears; business news is mixed; charts and PoM have no clear direction; no CR but the US ED is the one to watch at 13:30 [UK time] as it could switch the markets; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 6pts

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? had a little Binary going [down on the day] - a fraction of a bloody point! Can you believe that! Hay Ho. I have no definitive indicator tomorrow guiding me one way or another, so I intend to sit back and watch.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[kriesau]

UK, I find your daily analysis to be both interesting and informative. However I have a question (not a criticism) about your POM System. Don't know the basis for the formula upon which it is based but it has predicted a fall in the index every day this week yet the index has subsequently risen each day - with a 2% uplift in the last 4 days alone.

Now I know that this current rally is rather extraordinary and that no forecasting system is infallible but 4 consecutive incorrect calls, which have all gone against the prevailing trend, doesn't provide great credibility. Be interested in your view on this !

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 13th October 2006

Thursdays results:
Close:6121, up 47pts [0.79%]
Range: 6121 - 6069.

Last 5 TD: up 1.93%.
OTM: up 2.54%.

DOW
11947, up 95pts [0.81%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
OTM: up 2.28%

S&P 500
1362.83, up 12.88pts [0.95%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.71%.
OTM: up 2.01%

All three markets have now hit and moved above their respective Short [3-9 DA] and long [15-25DA] top heavy warning barriers. The FTSE more so then the other two. This last happened on the 27th July, only to be followed the next day by a further rise of 0.77% [FTSE]. As such, one more push perhaps?

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts:Thursdays were unclear but favoured an early rise with no indication thereafter. Fridays are sandwiched between neutral [1-3 days] and a weak chance of a fall [daily].

The PoM System: +0.75, interpretation: a slim chance of a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None UK

Economic Data:
None UK
13:30 US Retail sales
14:45 US University of Michigan confidence
15:00 US Business Inventories

Areas to watch: Barclay's [long term, possible bid]. Miners [riding top heavy].

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Wall Streets strong earnings results pushed the markets to dizzy heights today with the Miners doing the same for the FTSE, so are there any more thrusts left to come? Difficult to determine as there's very little in the pipeline next week to jossle the market one way or another, so we'll either see a minor climb or a small shuffle down - but no earth shattering falls. Charts and PoM see a minor rise tomorrow; business news is positive; strong chance of profit takers tomorrow; no CR or ED and SB companies have the FTSE opening up at evens.

Early gut feeling: Neutral to rising.

Will I bet? an early Binary on the DOW and a late one on the FTSE did well today. Tomorrow I'll be keeping a close eye on profit takers. Although they could quiet easily drag the market down I believe the FTSE could still end the day on an up. Lets see.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

UK, I find your daily analysis to be both interesting and informative. However I have a question (not a criticism) about your POM System. Don't know the basis for the formula upon which it is based but it has predicted a fall in the index every day this week yet the index has subsequently risen each day - with a 2% uplift in the last 4 days alone.

Now I know that this current rally is rather extraordinary and that no forecasting system is infallible but 4 consecutive incorrect calls, which have all gone against the prevailing trend, doesn't provide great credibility. Be interested in your view on this !

I'm pleased you commented on this, in fact, I was discussing it earlier today with fellow marketers who have already raised the same questions. And not in your professional manner. It’s a touch sad, I've grown quite fond of the system and as such become a tad depressed and even embarrassed when it fails to this decree.

It's the first time this year that the PoM system has had four consecutive incorrect predictions, and to add, I've observed this failing twice this year when we enter a strong bear or Bull market run. Unfortunately, and perhaps thankfully, it is the only fly in the anointment that the system has. Basically, it can not predict [as it hasn't any built in factor] for such strong trends, its strength is up and down markets.

I could build in a factor to incorporate a trend if I only know what the signals were that said 'we're in a X day Bull/Bear market.'

Personally, I picked up the fact that we are in a strong Bull market on day four [we are now in day seven]. Yes I was late.

In defence of the PoM system, a factor above ‘3’ [plus or minus] is recommended, supplemented with additional conventional methods, to provide a higher degree of correctly predicting a markets direction and potential strength.

This month has seen 4 correct and 5 incorrect with a total gain of 43pts [dire].

Last month finished on 13 correct and 6 incorrect for a gain of 773pts.

To sum up, strong trends play havoc with the system. The PoM system should be used as a supplement to other indicators. It is not infallible. Overall success: 62%. High factor [above '3'] 76%. Ultra High factor [above '5'] 88%.

Also, the POM is a two stem system, direction and potential strength. It could be wrong more days then right yet still provide the follower a greater degree of profit, as in this month [43pts]. This year: 99 correct, 66 incorrect, for a total gain of 1556pts.

I've tweaked the system throughout the year and its nearly performing at its optimum - just a touch more.

It still has plenty of merit. And it’s done me proud!

Thanks for your query

Good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 16th October 2006

Fridays results:
Close:6155, up 34pts [0.56%]
Range: 6170 - 6105.

Last 5 TD: up 2.55%.
OTM: up 3.09%.

DOW
11960, up 12pts [0.11%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.93%.
OTM: up 2.39%

S&P 500
1365.62, up 2.79pts [0.20%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.19%.
OTM: up 2.22%

News items of note:
Worth a read:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/10/15/cnlse15.xml

Charts, and nothing but the charts:Fridays were sandwiched between neutral [1-3 days] and a weak chance of a fall [daily]. Mondays see an early rise followed by a dip.

The PoM System: -2.75, interpretation: a southern move.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None UK
Note: a quiet week ahead.

Economic Data:
None UK
Note: a quiet week ahead.

Areas to watch: Miners are still top heavy and a minor retraction is favoured. Oil is favoured to rise.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all markets continued there Northern onslaught on Friday and one wonders at what point will they pause and retract, although a heavy southern drop is not expected tomorrow a minor dip would not be out of place. charts see an early rise before dipping back and the PoM continues to favour a retraction; business news remains positive; no CR or ED. SB companies have the FTSE opening up 10pts.

Early gut feeling: Neutral to falling.

Will I bet? a wild gamble that the DOW would end the day up when it was down over 20pts will now keep me in whiskey for the rest of the month. Monday is always a difficult day to predict 24hrs ahead, so best wait until the market shows which hat it will wear. In all, data strongly favours a Southern move, but as we've seen of late we are in an exceptionaly strong Bull market.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[kriesau]

I'm pleased you commented on this, in fact, I was discussing it earlier today with fellow marketers who have already raised the same questions. And not in your professional manner. It’s a touch sad, I've grown quite fond of the system and as such become a tad depressed and even embarrassed when it fails to this decree. It's the first time this year that the PoM system has had four consecutive incorrect predictions, and to add, I've observed this failing twice this year when we enter a strong bear or Bull market run. Unfortunately, and perhaps thankfully, it is the only fly in the anointment that the system has. Basically, it can not predict [as it hasn't any built in factor] for such strong trends, its strength is up and down markets.

I could build in a factor to incorporate a trend if I only know what the signals were that said 'we're in a X day Bull/Bear market.' Personally, I picked up the fact that we are in a strong Bull market on day four [we are now in day seven]. Yes I was late.

In defence of the PoM system, a factor above ‘3’ [plus or minus] is recommended, supplemented with additional conventional methods, to provide a higher degree of correctly predicting a markets direction and potential strength.This month has seen 4 correct and 5 incorrect with a total gain of 43pts [dire]. Last month finished on 13 correct and 6 incorrect for a gain of 773pts. To sum up, strong trends play havoc with the system. The PoM system should be used as a supplement to other indicators. It is not infallible. Overall success: 62%. High factor [above '3'] 76%. Ultra High factor [above '5'] 88%. Also, the POM is a two stem system, direction and potential strength. It could be wrong more days then right yet still provide the follower a greater degree of profit, as in this month [43pts]. This year: 99 correct, 66 incorrect, for a total gain of 1556pts.

I've tweaked the system throughout the year and its nearly performing at its optimum - just a touch more. It still has plenty of merit. And it’s done me proud!

UK

UK - thanks for you response.

Well it was finally right on Friday

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 17th October 2006

Mondays results:
Close:6172, up 15pts [0.25%]
Range: 6184 - 6149.

Last 5 TD: up 2.30%.
OTM: up 3.34%.

DOW
11980.6, up 20pts [0.17%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.03%.
OTM: up 2.56%

S&P 500
1369.06, up 3.44pts [0.25%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.36%.
OTM: up 2.47%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts:Mondays could see an early rise followed by a dip. Tuesdays show that the market is losing steam, but there's no strong indications that the market will turn and slide south; daily, no strong indication either way.

The PoM System: -1.75, interpretation: .

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None UK


Economic Data:
09:30 UK CPI

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets are beginning to twitch! With the DOW so close to the 12,000 mark it's expected. Tomorrow may see little FTSE movement until the US markets open. With several large US companies reporting this week, good results could well tip the DOW over the fence. Business news in general is positive; charts are unclear and the PoM [bless it!] still continues to favour the down; no CR [but the US had several major this week] and ED is tame. SB companies have the FTSE opening up at evens.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? Too busy tomorrow to follow the markets. Good trading to all.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[SirFrancis]

Morning UK and all

I read your post most days UK, and if I'm trading, use it as one source of input towards my trading decisions. I find it valuable and thought provoking - required reading.

The past week or two have been difficult to read, I've made three poor trades and lost 107 points! However I look at the long term and over the past year the Pom system has served me well. So I appreciate your efforts and your willingness to share your work - thanks again!

Sir Francis

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 18th October 2006

Tuesdays results:
Close: 6108, down 63pts [1.03%]
Range: 6184 - 6149.

Last 5 TD: up 0.57%.
OTM: up 2.31%.

DOW
11950, down 30pts [0.26%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.70%.
OTM: up 2.30%

S&P 500
1364.05, down 5.00pts [0.37%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.79%.
OTM: up 2.10%

News items of note:
NEW YORK (AFX) - Wall Street retreated Tuesday from attempts to push the Dow Jones (news) industrial average to 12,000, rattled by unfavourable economic data and concerns that earnings from technology companies will be disappointing.

Stocks snapped a three-session rally that had propelled the Dow to within three points of reaching the psychologically important milestone for the first time. Investors had built up an uneasy optimism that corporate profits will remain robust as the Federal Reserve navigates a soft landing for the economy.

That confidence was dealt a setback on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported a bigger-than-expected jump in core wholesale inflation, which unearthed the market's fears of higher interest rates. Also exasperating investors was a downgrade of Dow component Intel (NASDAQ: INTC - news) ahead of its third-quarter earnings report.

'There's that feeling of the Goldilocks scenario, and the market has been at very overbought levels,' said Chris Johnson, director of quantitative analysis for Schaeffer's Investment Research. 'The gains we've seen over the last three or four weeks have taken the market to an extreme, and it warrants a rest. At some point you just extend yourself too far.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays [3 day] stated that the market was losing steam, but there was no strong indication that the market will turn and slide south; daily had no strong indication either way. Wednesdays are mixed; 3 day remains in a neutral area [can go either way], daily sees a moderate early rise.

The PoM System: +1.25, interpretation: .a slim chance of a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Companies reporting:
LEGAL & GENERAL
REUTERS GROUP
Rio Tinto [my favourite and the one to watch as it's top heavy and a bad result will push the markets well and truly south. Also beware of profit takers in this sector as a whole]


Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England minutes Oct
09:30 UK Unemployment (000's) Sep
09:30 UK Average earnings (headline)


The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it will be an interesting day tomorrow. Business news is mixed but on the whole is leaning towards being negative; charts are unclear but do see a rise in the morning and the PoM also favours a weak chance of a rise; CR could turn the market south and ED is major. SB companies have the FTSE opening up between 15-30pts. Marketeers beware! The market tomorrow will be exceptionaly prone to switching direction.

Early gut feeling: Mixed.

Will I bet? Today: bugger! Missed it! Tomorrow I'll be looking for an outside bet: if the market moves down and the odds favour it, I'll be going a Binary 'up on the day' and vice versa.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Morning UK and all

I read your post most days UK, and if I'm trading, use it as one source of input towards my trading decisions. I find it valuable and thought provoking - required reading.

The past week or two have been difficult to read, I've made three poor trades and lost 107 points! However I look at the long term and over the past year the Pom system has served me well. So I appreciate your efforts and your willingness to share your work - thanks again!

Sir Francis

Evening Sir Francis,

As I've said before, use the PoM system as a supplement to other methods and yes, long term it will do well. I have a lot of followers of the PoM system and it hurts when its wrong. I have yet to append a factor to incorporate a trend, and although I've given it a lot of thought I've yet to come to a conclusion as to how to implement it. The problem is, when are we in a strong trend? What signals are there? And so on.

A 107pts, ouch! Sounds as if you've been fighting against the current Bull trend. 'When in doubt, stay out' is my motto.

At the moment, today was the first day when the market changed from a strong bull to a deliberating camel. Drunk on profit it's just a question of how far it will travel south before it turns around and heads North again. Of late the market has been looking for an excuse to retract but has found none, but tomorrow will be the 'telling day' when it will decide on a full scale slide south or revolve around its present position. Hence, an interesting day. Personally, I favour the deliberation, which is also good for the PoM.

Good trading

UK

 

[Splitlink]

Morning UK and all

I read your post most days UK, and if I'm trading, use it as one source of input towards my trading decisions. I find it valuable and thought provoking - required reading.

The past week or two have been difficult to read, I've made three poor trades and lost 107 points! However I look at the long term and over the past year the Pom system has served me well. So I appreciate your efforts and your willingness to share your work - thanks again!

Sir Francis

You are not alone. Does that make you happier? Of course not- me, neither but, at least, we are company. I am overtrading- I make about three or four a day. Thank goodness that I know how to leave them quickly. Nevertheless. I am down about 90 points.

Regards Split