The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 15th November 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6186, down 7pts [0.12%]
Range: 6223 - 6167.

Last 5 TD: down 0.92%
OTM: up 0.94%.

DOW
12218, up 86pts [0.71%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.51%.
OTM: up 1.14%

S&P 500
1393.22, up 8.80pts [0.64%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.75%.
OTM: up 1.12%

News items of note:
Telegraph – ‘The number of people remortgaging their home in September fell to its lowest level in five years in a sign that the housing market is beginning to cool, new figures indicated today.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said 79,000 people remortgaged during the month, down more than 13pc on the previous month's total of 91,000.

The number of people taking out a new home loan also fell in September, down to 88,000 from August's figure of 101,000.’

Also:

Lower petrol prices offset rising tuition fees and held inflation below forecasts, relieving pressure on the Bank of England to prepare for an interest rate rise in the new year, official figures showed.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rate of inflation held firm at 2.4pc in October after the average price of petrol fell by 5p a litre.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s 1-3 day saw either a weak rise or a medium dip, the Intraday favoured the down. Wednesday’s 1-3 day has slipped into a neutral area and Intraday sees a rise.

The PoM System AM, +7.00, interpretation: a strong chance of a rise.

The PoM System PM, +3.00, interpretation: a moderate chance of a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
LEGAL & GENERAL
LONMIN
SAINSBURY
SCOT & STHN ENERGY

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Unemployment
09:30 UK Average Earnings
10:30 UK Bank of England inflation report

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE monthly percentage has now slipped below the US markets, this is good news. As perceived, heavy profit takers took there toll on the FTSE, this may change tomorrow as the markets have changed from a nervous, ‘we’re over the top, so lets sell,’ to a ‘ Oh, there’s more stream left!’

Tomorrow, as long as the US markets hold there present positions we should see a healthy rise. Charts favour the daily rise and the PoM supports this with a strong factor; CR is expected to be promising, although the ED may shake the market south [may be the fly in the ointment] other factors should still hold it up, but do watch closely; business news appears positive at the moment and SB companies are expecting a healthy opening, FTSE up 34pts!

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Glad I walked the dog today. Tomorrow may be difficult to get in early and make any profit. We may see an early morning heavy dip [8-10am] to be followed by a gradual rise after 10:30am. Lets see.

In all, I believe, as it stands, it will be a difficult day to make a decent profit, entry and exit will be the key profit makers. choose your timing wisely!

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 16th November 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6229, up 43pts [0.70%]
Range: 6229 - 6186.

Last 5 TD: down 0.02%
OTM: up 1.64%.

DOW
12251, up 33pts [0.28%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.62%.
OTM: up 1.42%

S&P 500
1396.57, up 3.35pts [0.24%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.78%.
OTM: up 1.36%

News items of note:
Telegraph – ‘Indications from the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report that interest rates are unlikely to rise any further lifted the markets, but depressed sterling.’

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Reducing U.S. inflation to counter any expectations of higher prices was the Federal Reserve's greatest concern when policy-makers met last month, according to minutes of the talks released on Wednesday.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s 1-3 day had slipped into a neutral area and Intraday saw a rise. Thursday, 1-3 day is still in neutral territory, but should it change it would favour the down, Intraday has slipped into neutral, and again, if change is on the cards, favours the down.

The PoM System AM, –0.75, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
REED ELSEVIER
VEDANTA RESOURCES

Economic Data:
00:30 UK RICS housing mkt survey
09:30 UK Retail sales

13:30 US CPI-core month
13:30 US Initial Jobless claims
13:30 US CPI-core month
14:00 US Net foreign security purchases
14:15 US Industrial Production
17:00 US Philadelphia Fed

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the PoM’s bold call of +7 did well [89% correct calls for the year], but tomorrows –0.75 [45% correct calls for the year] should be viewed lightly. What data does show is, with a low call the market can and does switch direction with relative ease.

Charts are unclear and the PoM displays a weak chance of a dip; business news is positive; CR is tame, but the ED for the UK may shake the market – do watch closely. Also, a heavy ED day for the US which will shuffle the markets – which way is not predictable.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up between evens and plus 3points.

Early gut feeling: I’ve no idea which way the FTSE will swing tomorrow.

Will I bet? Today I had a tickle with a Binary. Will be looking to scalp tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 17th November 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6254, up 25pts [0.40%]
Range: 6229 - 6186.

Last 5 TD: down 0.38%
OTM: up 2.04%.

DOW
12305, up 54pts [0.44%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.66%.
OTM: up 1.86%

S&P 500
1399.76, up 3.19pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.55%.
OTM: up 1.59%

News items of note:
Telegraph – ‘A surge in demand for winter clothing ensured high street sales hit their best level for almost a year in October, figures revealed today.

Retail sales rose at their fastest pace since November last year as customers flocked to clothing stores, while online retailers were also buoyant.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales grew 0.9pc during the month, helping the high street to recover from September's 0.4pc drop.’


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s 1-3 day and Intraday were in neutral territory with no clear direction. Friday’s see a growing desire towards a dip south. Although the indication is minor, the charts continue to show a growing weakness in regards to rises.

The PoM System AM, –0.75, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Brit Energy

Economic Data:
None UK

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: ED results and the US markets reaction to them pushed the FTSE higher today. No ED tomorrow and therefore, based on FTSE position, it being a Friday, we should see a higher then average profit taking, and on another note, Oil price took a heavy tumble late in the day and the Oil sector has yet to react – that’s two possible negatives!

Charts remain neutral and the PoM prefers a weak dip; business news is positive; CR is tame and no ED.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down approx 10pts.

Early gut feeling: most things of importance favour a reversal of today, but as we’ve seen of late the market keeps on bucking the obvious.

Will I bet? will be watching early morning market sentiment to see if it supports a southern move. If it does not I’ll be walking the dog.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 20th November 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6192, down 62pts [1.01%]
Range: 6254 - 6178.

Last 5 TD: down 0.26%
OTM: up 1.04%.

DOW
12342, up 36pts [0.30%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.92%.
OTM: up 2.16%

S&P 500
1401.20, up 1.44pts [0.10%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.46%.
OTM: up 1.69%

News items of note:
ALGIERS (Reuters) - OPEC may decide on a second output reduction at its December meeting to strengthen the stability of oil prices, Algeria's Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Sunday.

OPEC, which pumps about a third of the world's crude, agreed last month to its first formal output curbs in over two years, in order to shore up sagging prices.

But in the last week prices resumed falling amid still high U.S. inventories and a broad commodities sell-off by investors, taking crude oil prices to their lowest level in 17 months.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s saw a growing desire towards a dip south. Although this indication was minor the charts continued to show a growing weakness in regards to rises. Monday’s 1-3 day are unchanged – weak rise versus a determined fall –, the Intraday favours an early morning rise.

The PoM System AM, +4, interpretation: a strong chance of the FTSE rising early morning.

The PoM System PM, +0.75, a strong chance of the FTSE reversing any early gains.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None UK and a pitiful week in all for CR.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Public finances
15:00 US Leading indicators

The FTSE Friday and Monday based on present news and data: the FTSE’s tumble Friday was a touch over cooked by 20 - 25pts, this lends support to a possible early rise Monday. Note: Monday has always been the most difficult to predict [pre-open] as my own notes conclude. So take these comments likely. Miners took a heavy tumble Friday but I see no reason for them to bounce back, likewise the oil sector.

Charts see an early rise and this is supported by a strong PoM factor but the PoM also sees a change in the afternoon. Whether this will mean a total reversal - a ‘down on the day’ - is difficult to say, but it favours it. Business news is mixed; no CR and the ED is tame.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 11pts.

The week ahead: Down.

Early gut feeling: favour the down.

Will I bet? a wonderful day Friday for my FTSE shorts, but a dire day for my DOW shorts. Am I missing something here! Again, I will be watching early morning to see if the market supports a southern move before committing.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 21st November 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6204, up 12pts [0.20%]
Range: 6254 - 6178.

Last 5 TD: up 0.17%
OTM: up 1.24%.

DOW
12316, down 26pts [0.21%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.52%.
OTM: up 1.95%

S&P 500
1400.50, down 0.70pts [0.05%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.16%.
OTM: up 1.64%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s 1-3 day were unchanged – weak rise versus a determined fall –, the Intraday favoured an early morning rise. Tuesday’s show no clearly defined movement either way

The PoM System, -.50, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE ending the day down.

Data: The PoM system has a 43% of being correct for this prediction range with an average fall of 27pts.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
BRITISH LAND CO
ENTERPRISE INNS
ICAP

Economic Data:
11:00 UK CBI Industrial trends

The FTSE Monday and tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE went down hard today only to rebound with incredible vigour – it certainly caught out a lot of experienced Marketeers who were left wondering as to where the market would end the day.

Charts are unclear and the PoM a weak dip; CR are not expected to stir the market and ED is moderate; Business news is positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 7pts.

Data for the year: Tuesday’s have a 33% of seeing a rise.

The week: Down.

Early gut feeling: neutral

Will I bet? Closed my Long far too early for a minor loss today. Tomorrow I’ll be scalping.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 22nd November 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6202, down 2pts [0.03%]
Range: 6228 - 6199.

Last 5 TD: up 0.27%
OTM: up 1.21%.

DOW
12321, up 5pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.85%.
OTM: up 1.99%

S&P 500
1402.81, up 2.31pts [0.16%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.69%.
OTM: up 1.80%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s showed no clearly defined movement either way. Wednesday’s continue to fall into neutral territory without any solid indication as to which way the market will move.

The PoM System, AM: +2.00, interpretation: a moderate chance of the FTSE rising early morning.

The PoM System, PM: +0.75, interpretation: a strong chance of the FTSE loosing any early morning gains.

Note: the PoM system recommends a ‘No bet’ due to the ED.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
JOHNSON MATTHEY

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England MOC minutes Nov
13:30 US Jobless claims
15:00 US University of Michigan confidence

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE’s early gains became eroded as the day progressed due to the US markets deliberating direction. This could well continue early morning.

Charts are unchanged from yesterdays neutral forecast, but the PoM favours a stronger opening followed by a weak end of day close. However, the ED is the one to watch as it could shuffle both UK and US markets, CR is tame; Business sentiment is positive as there’s a number of probable takeovers in the air.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 9pts.

Data for the year: Wednesday’s have a 65% chance of ending the day on a rise.

The week: Down.

Early gut feeling: still neutral as I don’t know how the market will react to the ED or the sharp rise in Oil price.

Will I bet? I did well to scalp rather then Binary today. Tomorrow I’ll be watching the 1330hrs result before committing. Having said that, the market is probably best left alone tomorrow.


If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 23rd November 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6160, down 42pts [0.68%]
Range: 6233 - 6147.

Last 5 TD: down 1.11%
OTM: up 0.53%.

The FTSE is now well under-par compared to the US markets.

DOW
12327, up 5pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.61%.
OTM: up 2.03%

S&P 500
1406.09, up 3.28pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
OTM: up 2.04%

News items of note:
Worth a read: Another Rogue Trader Loses $81m

http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/business_news/6222.cntns

It's plainly obviously he doesn’t read my column.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s continued to fall into neutral territory without any solid indication as to which way the market would move. Thursday’s 1-3 day show rises will be weak and drops determined but the Intraday favours a rise.

The PoM System, AM: +3.5, interpretation: a moderate chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM System, PM: Zero, interpretation: unable to determine the US markets direction and therefore their influence.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE was expected to give up most of its early morning gains but to drop 40pts, a swing of nearly 90pts, surprised a lot of marketers. The phrase ‘over cooked’ springs to mind.

Charts still favour the strong fall versus weak rise over the coming days, the PoM sees a determined opening; no CR or ED which of late favours the fall; business news continues to be positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 13pts.

Data for the year: Thursday’s have a 57% chance of ending the day up.

The week: Down.

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? A little scalping today, but failed to see or benefit from the heavy fall. Tomorrow is worth a small morning Long. The US markets are making me nervous as I’ve no idea where they’re going.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[hhass1]

Hi UKHero,

I am rather newbiew, I do read your posts with interests,

do you have any forcast for the FTSE Closing price Dec 2006 ?

Cheers
H

 

[hogfish]

query

Can you tell me more about POM formula?
If it has 43% chance of being correct isn't it best to do the opposite?

Thanks for an excellent column, hope my question isn't silly.

 

[ukhero]

Can you tell me more about POM formula?
If it has 43% chance of being correct isn't it best to do the opposite?

Thanks for an excellent column, hope my question isn't silly.

It’s a good question.

The 'POM system' or 'The P System,' stands for 'Plus or minus.' It is a manual paper system.

The PoM system works on the principle of adding or subtracting points [or parts of] based on a recognisable list of known factors. There are many factors involved, and it’s just a simple case of adding or subtracting according to the formula until you have a final figure. Simple, eh!

The result can range from -9 to +9. So far this year the system has an overall success rate of 63%.

Low end [-1 to +1]47%

High end [5 or above, plus or minus] 89%

Points incorrect: 128.1

Points correct: 311.55

A low end score is expected to be susceptible to the slightest market news and or any major unanticipated change in four of its chief components: Oil, Miners, Banks and DOW.

The PoM system was never designed to be used as a standalone system but more of a supplement to other indicators.

Hope the above explains.

Yours


UK

 

[ukhero]

Hi UKHero,

I am rather newbiew, I do read your posts with interests,

do you have any forcast for the FTSE Closing price Dec 2006 ?

Cheers
H

I don't have any forcast for the FTSE's end of year position. Top of my head having looked at my data, and just for fun, close to the 6300 position.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 24th November 2006

Thursday’s results:
Close: 6140, down 20pts [0.33%]
Range: 6181 - 6115.

Last 5 TD: down 1.85%
OTM: up 0.20%.

DOW
Wednesday’s results
12327, up 5pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.61%.
OTM: up 2.03%

S&P 500
Wednesday’s results
1406.09, up 3.28pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
OTM: up 2.04%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday’s 1-3 day showed that rises will be weak and drops determined but the Intraday favoured the rise. Friday’s 1-3 are still unchanged and again the Intraday sees a rise.

The PoM System, AM: +1.5, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM System, PM: Zero, interpretation: unable to determine the US markets direction and therefore their influence.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP.

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data:the FTSE opened up and fell with gusto, thereafter dispelling any possible chance of a late rise. It seems that the European markets as a whole used the day to dump whatever shares they were holding as they believe the US markets will, within a short time frame, slide south.

Charts are little changed: strong fall versus weak rise over the coming days, the PoM sees a rise; no CR and ED is moderate; business news is mixed.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 5pts.

Data for the year: Friday’s have a 51% chance of ending the day up.

The week: Down.

Early gut feeling: nervous

Will I bet? managed to scalp the bounce today but nothing more. As it stands, I’m unsure as to the day’s early morning direction tomorrow. Best sit and watch.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 27th November 2006

Friday’s results:
Close: 6122, down 17pts [0.29%]
Range: 6140 - 6068.

Last 5 TD: down 1.13%
OTM: down 0.09%.

DOW
12280, down 46pts [0.38%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.21%.
OTM: up 1.65%

S&P 500
1400.95, down 5.14pts [0.37%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.09%.
OTM: up 1.67%

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks could face a challenge next week to bounce back from Friday's post-Thanksgiving drop unless there's some tempering of the dollar's weakness that sparked the sell-off.

Early signs of how the U.S. holiday shopping season is shaping up also will drive the week's activity, as will a full agenda of economic data. Investors will review readings on economic growth, inflation, consumer confidence and manufacturing activity, among other data. The week will wrap up with the latest sales figures from the struggling U.S. auto sector.

Worth a read: Firms crimping oil supplies
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061126/ap_on_bi_ge/ungushing_oil_4

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday’s 1-3 showed weak rises versus determined drops, but the Intraday favoured a rise. Monday’s are still unchanged and again the Intraday sees an early rise.

The PoM System, AM: +0.75, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None UK and US.

The FTSE Friday and Monday based on present news and data: Friday was another day when the FTSE over reacted to a possible US slide south, and it’s still on the cards. Monday looks as if the FTSE is a tad more relaxed and susceptible to a rise.

Charts still favour the long-term fall versus a weak day rise, PoM sees a weak rise; no CR or ED; business news is mixed.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 15pts.

The week: ending close to evens.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? second day running, managed to scalp the bounce but nothing more. Tomorrow has no strong indication either way and therefore best sit back and choose the moment.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 28th November 2006

Monday’s results:
Close: 6050, down 72pts [1.18%]
Range: 6129 - 6050.

Last 5 TD: down 2.51%
OTM: down 1.27%.

A total of ‘6’ warning signals that say the FTSE has fallen far too quickly in a 25day time period. Not enough by itself to go Long, but should be added to other factors to obtain a clearer picture of where the markets are headed.

DOW
12121, down 158pts [1.29%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.80%.
OTM: up 0.36%

S&P 500
1381.90, down 19.05pts [1.36%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.38%.
OTM: up 0.31%

A heavy slide south for the US markets. Is there more to come? I believe so.

News items of note:

FT.com – ‘Oil prices mixed as further output cut likely:

Oil prices remained mixed on Monday in spite of comments from Saudi Arabia signalling that a further cut in output by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was likely.

ICE January Brent traded 17 cents lower at $59.86 a barrel while Nymex January West Texas Intermediate gained 40 cents at $59.64 a barrel.

On Saturday, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said that opec would cut output again in December if the November 1.2m barrel a day reduction in supplies failed to balance the market.’


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s were still unchanged with weak rise versus strong falls, although it did see a minor early rise. Tuesday’s remain as per Monday.

The PoM System, AM: +1.00, interpretation: a weak chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Barclays UK Trading 07:00
Kelda KEL.L UK H1 BMO
Old Mutual

Economic Data:
None UK
15:00 US New Home Sales [the one to watch]

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: as anticipated, the FTSE dipped its toe above its opening and thereafter slid south.

I asked a party of stalwart marketers were the markets were headed this week, they all shuffled through their desk calendars and pointed to the US PIS on Thursday, “it’s the hinge pin,” they muted.

Little changed from Monday: charts still favour the long-term fall versus a weak day rise and the PoM a possible weak rise; CR should be positive on the whole and no ED for the UK, but the US ED is the one to watch and there’s a strong possibility of it pushing the markets further south; business news is mixed. Strong possibility of the FTSE rising early only to fall back later in the day.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 12pts.

For the week: ending close to evens.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Just a small FTSE binary for today, which did well, my main bargain was the US markets. Eat my shorts DOW! Tomorrow, I’ve jumped ship [although I anticipate the US slipping further South] and opted for the Nikkei as I anticipate a bigger slide South.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 29th November 2006

Tuesday’s results:
Close: 6025, down 24pts [0.40%]
Range: 6129 - 6050.

Last 5 TD: down 2.88%
OTM: down 1.67%.

DOW
12136, up 14pts [0.12%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.46%.
OTM: up 0.48%

S&P 500
1386.72, up 4.82pts [0.35%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.98%.
OTM: up 0.66%

Even with today’s rise I’m sill not convinced that the US markets slide South has fully finished. The next three days will decide.

News items of note:

Telegraph – ‘Banking giant Barclays said today that it was on course for annual profits of almost £7bn.

The group told investors that it continued to deliver "very strong profit growth", but warned that its Barclaycard arm remained under pressure from continuing high levels of personal insolvencies.

Barclays, which achieves around 40pc of its business overseas, said it was on course to meet City expectations for profits of £6.99bn. It made profits of £5.28bn last year, but has taken on new operations since then, including South African lender Absa.’

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday’s were still unchanged with weak rise versus strong falls. Wednesday’s still support this but see a rise for tomorrow morning.

The PoM System, AM: +2.75, interpretation: a strong chance of the FTSE rising.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Antotafagsta
COMPASS
SAGE
WOLSELEY

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Consumer credit & mortgages
13:30 US GDP
15:00 US New Home Sales

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: another day south, that’s six in a row. Time for a little drive North perhaps.

Charts still favour the long-term fall versus a weak rise but see tomorrow morning as a positive move North and this is supplemented with a strong ‘AM’ PoM result; CR is expected to be positive, but the ED for both the UK and US may rattle the market [best keep your SG tight]; business news is mixed.

SB companies have the FTSE opening up 7pts.

For the week: ending close to evens.

Early gut feeling: an early rise.

Will I bet? My SG closed my Nikkei short for a minor loss. I’m surprised with the US’s small rise today, but I’m not convinced. Intend to go Long with the FTSE if early morning market sentiment supports it.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 30th November 2006

Wednesday’s results:
Close: 6084, up 58pts [0.97%]
Range: 6098 - 6025.

Last 5 TD: down 1.23%
OTM: down 0.70%.


DOW
12226.7, up 90pts [0.74%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.76%.
OTM: up 1.23%

S&P 500
1399.48, up 12.76pts [0.92%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.22%.
OTM: up 1.58%

News items of note:

NEW YORK - Wall Street rose for a second straight session Wednesday after the government's latest gross domestic product reading showed the economy was in better shape than expected

FT.com - The prospect of colder weather in the north-east of America and larger-than-expected falls in US crude and product inventories pushed oil prices sharply higher on Wednesday.

The Energy Information Administration said that US crude stocks fell by 0.3m barrels last week, above the consensus forecast for a 0.1m barrel decline.

ICE January Brent rose $1.17 to $62.38 a barrel while Nymex January West Texas Intermediate gained 88 cents to $61.87 a barrel.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday’s still supported weak rise versus strong falls but saw a rise for the day. Thursday’s 1-3 are unchanged and are unclear in regards to the Intraday.

The PoM System, AM: +1.75, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE rising. Also recommends a ‘no bet.’

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.

Company’s reporting:
Kingfisher
Next

Economic Data:
10:30 UK GFK Consumer Confidence
10:30 UK CBI Distributive trades reports
13:30 US Personal income and spending
13:30 US Initial Jobless claims
15:00 US Chicago PMI Nov

The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: The ED results pushed the markets North today, but tomorrow they could easily reverse their gains if the ED negative. Expect a cautious early morning opening and a jittery afternoon.

Charts still favour the long-term fall versus a weak rise and are unclear for tomorrow, the PoM sees another rise; CR is expected to be positive but the ED for UK and US should be interesting. Business news appears overly positive.

SB companies have the FTSE opening down 5pts.

For the week: ending close to evens.

Early gut feeling: an interesting day ahead.

Will I bet? Holding yesterdays FTSE Long, SG amended.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours and good trading

UK

 

[olliel9]

any ideas

Does anyone one have aby ideas on where things are going from her
6100

 

[Atilla]

Does anyone one have aby ideas on where things are going from her
6100

Down to 6070 - 6050 :cheesy:

 

[hobby]

Down to 6070 - 6050 :cheesy:

Nah...down to a number starting with '5' (albeit not today!) :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

Nah...down to a number starting with '5' (albeit not today!) :cheesy:

6050 reached. Take 50% profits now.