The FTSE, Tuesday 5th December 2006
Monday’s results:
Close:
6050, up 28pts [0.48%]
Range: 6087 - 5985.
Last 5 TD: up 0.01%
OTM: up 0.03%.
DOW
12283, up 89pts [0.74%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.33%.
OTM: down 0.51%
S&P 500
1409.12, up 12.41pts [0.89%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.96%.
OTM: up 0.61%
Notes: The FTSE seems to be falling increasingly behind its American cousins in regards to ‘Year2Date’ and may be regarded by some to be a good bargain, don’t be fooled. The Market is where it should be at this moment in time and no more.
FTSE 8.09%
DOW 14.11%
S&P 12.61%
News items of note:
Worth a read: Oil prices fall despite OPEC worries.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061204/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_13
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s 1-3 were still in a downtrend and the Intraday was unclear. Tuesday’s show we are bouncing on a ‘bottom’ and as such can swing either way.
The PoM System, AM: +1.75, interpretation: a slim chance of the FTSE rising.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down. Note: its weakness is strong trends, whereas its strength lies in a turbulent/up down markets.
Company’s reporting:
BA – Traffic
HSBC [BMO]
Tesco
UU
Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI services
11:00 UK BRC sales monitor
13:30 US Non-farm productivity [the one to watch]
15:00 US Factory orders Oct [this one also]
15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing
Areas to watch: Oil and the banking sector.
The FTSE today and tomorrow based on present news and data: Historically December is generally regarded as a positive month rising 10 of the past 12 years for an average of 1.65%. So how will the rest of the month pan out? My own data says nothing spectacular will develop until after the BOE this week. Best wait.
Charts display a bottom but have no indication for tomorrow, The PoM indicates a rise for the AM but is unsure weather this will carry on throughout the day; CR is expected to be overly positive which will spur the market upward, the UK ED is mild but the US ED is the one to watch. Business news is positive.
We could have a strong early rise tomorrow and if the US market ED data is positive – a climb of 70pts plus and a gradual rise thereafter throughout the rest of December or, an early climb followed by a heavy fall and a deliberation for the rest of the month. Darmen unt Heren, place your bets.
Of course I could be totally wrong, but I’m forever sticking my head in the noose of prediction and shouting ‘go on you mothers! Prove me wrong, I dare you!’
SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 8pts.
For the week: up.
For the month: up
Early gut feeling: early rise.
Will I bet? Still holding Wednesdays FTSE Long [@ 6032], SG at 5987. May top it up depending on US ED.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours and good trading
UK