Swingin' the ftse 2010

[tomorton]

Forgot to mention that 5045 also marks the entry point for a 1-2-3 short, using 16/04, 07/05 and 13/05 as the 3 points of reference.

This makes 4 decent shorting opportunities but, of course, the market may go up almost as readily as if these patterns had never appeared. I am cr@p at predicting what the market will do next - but the aim is to be good at predicting what you will do next.

 

[Mr. G]

It's getting ugly out there. 5045 is getting ever closer. Tom will be sitting pretty on his short from 5257. I was short from the same level but had very tight stops so have been in and out a bit over the last few days, nibbling scraps here and there.

Given I have discounted the wacky day on May 6 in the US from a signal perspective, trend change signals are not far away there either (S&P has given one pre-market).

Tin hats on I reckon....

 

[tomorton]

No charts most of week - faulty elderly BT connection replaced today. Now got over 5Mb, which is not bad when only 6 arrives at the house from the exchange.

Got caught in the BT / BT OpenReach no-man''s land. BT engineers are rubbish and come from the bodge-it-quick school, while BT OpenReach engineers (who mostly used to be BT engineers) can see the work's cr@p - ah, yes, but..... its not BT OpenReach kit so its not their job to put it right - and BT OpenReach won't even tell the BT customer what's wrong with the BT hardware! That's for BT to do. But as the phone is working, it can't be a BT problem so you have to call a BT Openreach engineer.
Grrrrrrrrrrr! Grrrrrrrrrrrrr! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

 

[tomorton]

On the bright side, I got a free pressure washer hire for the day from HSS. Because they messed up the original hire 3 weeks ago. Mind you they did their best to wind me up today by not telling me they were sending a van out with the washer to the house, so I had been all the way to the hire shop for no reason at 8 o-clock: then the van arrives at a random time without them even bothering to check anyone was in, say, by giving us a ring.

Oh, wait a minute, the phone was off........

 

[tomorton]

Sorry for ranting, got withdrawal symptoms not being able to get on here when I wanted. Who's got time to trade anyway with all this going on?

 

[tomorton]

But I'm sure Ant and Dec's Coalition will save us.

 

[tomorton]

Today's price action produced a hammer, suggesting the opportunity to go long at at 5085 if price remains above 4957. But this is a risky trade, being counter-trend now that we have breached both 5045 and 5033, and with a 128pt stop-loss. Ouch.

Might be better to hope for a rally that will allow an easier short next week.

 

[Mr. G]

Tom - I think stops on any positions are wide at the moment due to the volatility. The 10 day ATR is 142 at the moment. A stop above the high of Thursday's change of trend day is about 200 points. Big stops = smaller trade size I reckon.

 

[tomorton]

I agree Mr. G - daily range wide so makes sense to scale back.

High-end US closing prices suggest the FTSE hammer / pin bar has a realistic chance of confirmation Monday.

 

[tomorton]

Incidentally, the S&P made a whiplash yesterday also suggesting it will carry higher on Monday.

 

[Moneymakingmachine]

Hi all, new to the forum

I don't trade the FTSE itself, i swing the individual stocks. But i will join the thread if you don't mind, and share my opinions and trades with you all

 

[Mr. G]

MMM - welcome. The more opinions, the better in my opinion. That's what makes a market. Any particular stocks you follow?

 

[Moneymakingmachine]

I'm short on Capita Group at the moment, from 798.6
.
I'm also short on the ftse, i sold last night before i went to bed at 5001.1

Not sure how much downside there actually is though, it feels as though it's ready to bounce straight back up to me.

 

[Moneymakingmachine]

Anyone have any views on the FTSE ?

I'm worried about my positions at the moment, i'm 100% short: on two stocks and on the index. I can't find anything worth buying as a hedge though so maybe that's saying stick with it . . . . ?

Edit: Got out of FTSE sell for 50 points profit, Still in on the Capita group sell which has fallen around 30p since i sold, and Man group which is pissing about where i sold it at 212p but earnings are due this week and i don't really want to be in when they're released so i'l probs trade out.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Moneymakingmachine - I always have views on the FTSE but sometimes they point both ways. Sometimes feel like having both a long and a short open at the same time..... but that's just silly.

Nearly time to do tonight's analysis but last night I noted -

Pattern a bit like a hanging man (bullish reaction day though not in an established uptrend), price closing up on previous but down on the open: suggests short entry at 5021, stop at 5110. also a bearish 1-2-3 pattern, from 18, 21 and 24/05, suggesting possible short entry at 4957, stop at 5110.
Tendency is bearish: price is below 14, 50 and 200EMA: 14EMA is below 50EMA and 200EMA: the P&F chart shows sell signal.

Think you did right to go short. I was stopped out of my little long, but it was always counter-trend.

 

[tomorton]

Today's FTSE action showed lots of bearish tendency on EOD charts but no obvious short signals from my preferred selection -
Continuation of downleg from swing high 5436.0 13/05
Price below 14, 50 and 200EMA
14EMA below 50EMA and 200EMA
P&F chart shows sell signal
Putative swing low at 4898.5 but below previous swing low 5045.3 07/05

There is one potential bullish signal just setting up, a 3-day unfilled reversal long if price breaches 4978 on 26, 27 or 28/05, stop at 4898. With the US hammer formation that seems to be crystallising, this looks like a possibility, though its still against the trend.

 

[Moneymakingmachine]

Just gone long on Anglo American from 2551.2, more of a hedge against my Capita group sell if anything, which is still 27p onside, got out of Man group for -5p.

I wouldn't want to have a position on the index at the moment, one of those times where you would want to be long and short just to be safe lol. Can't see the FTSE doing much over the next few days, but i'm taking a slight long bias.

Update: Anglo doing well, up about 50p as i write this, just gone long on Lonmin from 1677.8 so i'm now long 66%. I've also put a buy order in for Rio Tinto at 3,043.0. Going to look to close Capita group sell in the next two days depending on where we are.

Update 2: I've re jigged a few figures, and i'm now long around 70% I'm long on:

Anglo American from 2551.2
Antofagasta from 869.5
Barclays from 300.9
BHP Billiton from 1851.9
Cairn energy from 395.5
Lonmin from 1677.8
Marks n sparks from 326.3
Rio tinto from 3043.0
Sage group from 234.3
Xstrata from 973.2

My only short is capita group but it seems to be holding nicely from 798.6 and it's a relatively large position in relation to my longs so i'm nicely hedged. Good Luck

Update 3: Too many positions ffs :/

Final Update:

FTSE dropped in last 20 mins of session, fecked up all my long positions, which were all green at one point. Managed to get a piece of the mining pie though with bhp, rio tinto and anto in profit. My elliot aint the best, but i think i am right in saying that the FTSE close during the third wave of the corrective wave, so a continuation is expected ?

 

[tomorton]

I wouldn't want to have a position on the index at the moment, one of those times where you would want to be long and short just to be safe lol. Can't see the FTSE doing much over the next few days, but i'm taking a slight long bias.

Final Update:

FTSE dropped in last 20 mins of session, fecked up all my long positions, which were all green at one point. Managed to get a piece of the mining pie though with bhp, rio tinto and anto in profit. My elliot aint the best, but i think i am right in saying that the FTSE close during the third wave of the corrective wave, so a continuation is expected ?

I agree - stayed in cash today to avoid another counter-trend position, though the 3-day unfilled gap reversal triggered.

Nasty sell-off to the bell, left the larger pattern looking weak but on some charts this could look like the very rare Abandoned Baby reversal pattern. I've got to look at this, more later.

 

[tomorton]

Well, the higher range day today confirmed 25/05 as a swing low though it is lower than the previous. It would be aggressive to have taken a counter-trend long here this morning just on this pattern.

The day's price action is not particularly decisive, closing in the bottom half of the range but too high to make a convincing bullish inverted hammer (its not at the low point of a downtrend either).

The gaps before and after 25/05 suggest a bullish abandoned baby or morning doji star reversal pattern. However, this is a weak example of the pattern - today’s candlestick body is low-lying and does not invade that of 24/05: the pattern is also a little over-shadowed by 21/05 and not isolated at the low point of the recent downtrend. However, this is a rare and (apparently) potent reversal signal. Even for the cautious player, a breach of today's high must be very bullish surely?

 

[Moneymakingmachine]

Well, the higher range day today confirmed 25/05 as a swing low though it is lower than the previous. It would be aggressive to have taken a counter-trend long here this morning just on this pattern.

The day's price action is not particularly decisive, closing in the bottom half of the range but too high to make a convincing bullish inverted hammer (its not at the low point of a downtrend either).

The gaps before and after 25/05 suggest a bullish abandoned baby or morning doji star reversal pattern. However, this is a weak example of the pattern - today’s candlestick body is low-lying and does not invade that of 24/05: the pattern is also a little over-shadowed by 21/05 and not isolated at the low point of the recent downtrend. However, this is a rare and (apparently) potent reversal signal. Even for the cautious player, a breach of today's high must be very bullish surely?

I can only agree, If we break today's high then the odds are way in your favour for an upward move imho. I just hope that this downward move is nearly over now, cuz I've taken quite an aggressive long position here given the market conditions. Having said that, i think that mining and tobacco are the safest things to buy into at the moment. But we shall see.