Swingin' the ftse 2010

[Mr. G]

According to Sharescope chart, today was a near perfect morning star / inverted hammer pattern. This suggests a buy order to catch any rally tomorrow, high enough to obtain confirmation of bullish strength - above today's high? With a stop at the low, the 120pt risk is a bit steep but worth the risk I feel. Thoughts anyone?

I typed a post last night that hasn't appeared for some reason...ho hum.....

Anyway, after an intra-day drop of 1,000 points on the Dow, I'm not sure I want to be long these markets although 'word on the street' is (at least the bit of the street I work on) is that yesterday was aberrational in the US to some fat fingers and an ensuing program triggered sell-off. Nasdaq are canceling trades.....

I don't see the inverted hammer - is it only on Sharescope?

Personally, I'm waiting to see what unfolds.

 

[Mr. G]

Came within a dozen points of a change of trend sell signal today. Blimey.....

Sell in May and go away.

Anyone think there is anything in this chart malarky? :cheesy:

 

[tomorton]

Hi Mr. G - FTSE charts can vary where they put the open so patterns like hammers and opening gap patterns can be ambiguous depending on your data provider. Its a pain. And of course SB tick charts give a toally different picture again as they include quotes outside 0800-1630.

We have another putative swing low yesterday but the same old problem - the 'orthodox' stop is way below entry (220pts / 4%) so where do you place a stop on a long if we breach yesterday's high? - an intra-day support level? a percentage loss level? fibonacci?

I am inclined to stay in cash until we've had a clear week of 'normal' volatility.

That said, I was reminded by this week''s plunge of a smart little video by Sandy Jadeja on CantosTV (see YouTube) - when we have an outside weekly bar (see w/e 30/04), set a buy at the week's high and a sell at the week's low - this could this week have captured 488pts: that's against a risk of 268, making less than 2:1 r:r, and 268's a large number anyway, but he says its a very dependable strategy......

 

[Dentalfloss]

got a few swing points on my chart
1 min data
6.50 box size by 3 reversal
lots of downtrend lines showing resistance areas nicely

 

[wallstreet1928]

FTSE 100 - Weekly chart ..........Head & Shoulders activated , if FTSE remains below 5500 then bear pattern remains active !! Target 4200

 

[tomorton]

4200.
Why not?

With such cack-handed management of the Greece debt crisis, the UK General Election, New York financial markets and of the most fragile of recoveries, 4200 might be conservative.

 

[tomorton]

............I was reminded by this week''s plunge of a smart little video by Sandy Jadeja on CantosTV (see YouTube) - when we have an outside weekly bar (see w/e 30/04), set a buy at the week's high and a sell at the week's low - this could this week have captured 488pts: that's against a risk of 268, making less than 2:1 r:r, and 268's a large number anyway, but he says its a very dependable strategy......

A little backtesting suggests Sandy Jadeja is right about this system. A week's high-low range on the FTSE tends to average 7-8% over last few years so this could be uncomfortable for some players. But gains occasionally go over 20% within a few weeks. If you settle for about 5-7% you'll get it most turns. If the week's range / risk is over 10% you could always let it go by or set a more tolerable TA or %-age based stop. So uncomplicated and dependable its worth looking at.

 

[Mr. G]

Friday could be the swing low we have all (me only?) been waiting for.

Buy order in above Friday's high.

Tom - I like the outside week method you mention above. One of the things I like about this board are the new ideas that are discussed. Keep 'em coming...!!! :clap:

 

[Da.DesiTrader]

Mr G. Did you get in at a reasonable price. Looks like prices gapped up quite a lot. However, you should be in the money now.

I agree with tom. I am sitting on the sidelines to wait and see what unfolds. Too much volatility.

 

[Mr. G]

Mr G. Did you get in at a reasonable price. Looks like prices gapped up quite a lot. However, you should be in the money now.

I agree with tom. I am sitting on the sidelines to wait and see what unfolds. Too much volatility.

5264 and 5266 - two different prices as I had the high at 2 places (one Prorealtime the other FT) so I split my order. I have trailing stops in - one at 25 pts and the other at 50 pts.

 

[tomorton]

Friday could be the swing low we have all (me only?) been waiting for.

Buy order in above Friday's high.

Tom - I like the outside week method you mention above. One of the things I like about this board are the new ideas that are discussed. Keep 'em coming...!!! :clap:

Cheers - I was reading today that if the close of the outside week is higher than the previous week's close this is even more positive and reliable: the converse if the outside week's close is lower than the previous week's close. If the outside week's close exceeded the high or low, that would make it a key reversal if in a trend.

 

[tomorton]

I agree with tom. I am sitting on the sidelines to wait and see what unfolds. Too much volatility.

The daily bars look too much like bunjee ropes. Too extreme for me.

 

[Mr. G]

The daily bars look too much like bunjee ropes. Too extreme for me.

Could be ripe for an 80-20 trade tomorrow?

 

[tomorton]

Could be ripe for an 80-20 trade tomorrow?

Yes, about the only likely trade, as am ignoring the standard three-day long swing trade while the stop is so far away. Need price trading above 5400, set sell at this level. Daytrade only, exit at / by the close.

Possible whiplash too I suppose: sell at the close if open gaps above 5400 and closes down on the day and below 50% level in today's range.

But these are high-risk times and even a daytrade would be ambitious for me right now.

 

[tomorton]

No signal for me but the gamblers here are going to go all in long now that Brown has resigned.

 

[Mr. G]

No signal for me but the gamblers here are going to go all in long now that Brown has resigned.

Seems that they'd be losing a bit by now....

 

[Splitlink]

I went in because the index went up. :cheesy:

 

[tomorton]

Today confirmed some reasonable bearish signals -
* confirmed 13/05 as swing high, much lower than previous swing high 16/04, suggesting trend
changed to down
* confirmed evening star
* confirmed hikkake
All point towards short entry of course.

 

[Mr. G]

Today confirmed some reasonable bearish signals -
* confirmed 13/05 as swing high, much lower than previous swing high 16/04, suggesting trend
changed to down
* confirmed evening star
* confirmed hikkake
All point towards short entry of course.

Where will you be placing your entry Tom? According to Rivalland rules, we don't have a change of trend yet but as he says, hard to describe these markets as still being in uptrends.

 

[tomorton]

I think more and more that management of positions is more key than finding the sweetest entry point. As long as you have a TA rationale for entry and control of risk, any of the above would do.

Most aggressive entry would be 5381 taking the 3-day swing down. Then 5257 (which I have taken) for the hikkake. 5045 may soon be seen and would confirm shift to downtrend according to Rivalland I think and also take out the outside week's low (w/e 07/05: made an outside bar by the last week's inside bar). All have sensible stop positions available, as long as you don't put the house on any one of them.