Swingin' the ftse 2010

[barjon]

....................We only retraced a very small percentage on Friday as the DOW went down fast the FTSE was a lot more positive...............

mmm, FTSE traded very strong relative to DOW on Thursday, but was relatively flat on Friday. DOW closed around 30 lower than where it was on FTSE close. The opening FTSE/DOW (via futures or SB proxy DOW quote) relativity should be informative.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

I don't know which way the market's going to go, but the patterns I look for either did not print on Friday or gave a sell signal (two - whiplash (actual) and three-day swing trade (putative)). Only one of my preferred patterns could today signal me a long - key reversal. However, I basically think if you wanted to be long you should already be in.

 

[Mr. G]

I've opened a short under Friday's low so am in a trade this morning.

I've been thinking about exits. Rivalland talks about moving to b/e when the trade has gone 100 point in his favour and then taking profit at 150-200 points. It works as an approach on the basis, as they say, that no one loses money taking profits. However, not sure the adage is true as you could have a few 50 point losses before a 150 point winner.

What is the collective wisdom on here around profit targets?

 

[tomorton]

Good question Mr. G. I prefer to use an exit target based on TA (or at least common market behaviour) and some of the patterns I look for actually do this. However, the three-day swing trade method is very light on exit points.

As the stop-loss is effectively one day's range, what about this as the basis for a trailing stop also to protect profits?

 

[Mr. G]

Tom - I like that idea but with the current volatility one could be leaving quite a bit on the table as the ranges are very wide at the moment.
I like to get to b/e ASAP as my no.1 rule is "don't lose money".
I'm currently 95 points in profit with a 25 point, 5 step trailing stop. Probably too tight but......

 

[Mr Flibble]

Im seeing the start of some bullish divergence at this level but you'd have to be brave to go long now. Probably check to see if we get higher highs and lower lows on a 5 minute chart to time the entry to perfection but my stops will be in place. On a hourly chart we are would wait for that hammer to be formed and then an upward confirmation for the hour afterwards. I don't want to be in the market when America wakes up though.

Should say price as of writing this was 5079.

 

[barjon]

I've opened a short under Friday's low so am in a trade this morning.

I've been thinking about exits. Rivalland talks about moving to b/e when the trade has gone 100 point in his favour and then taking profit at 150-200 points. It works as an approach on the basis, as they say, that no one loses money taking profits. However, not sure the adage is true as you could have a few 50 point losses before a 150 point winner.

What is the collective wisdom on here around profit targets?

mrg

I thought Rivalland took half then the rest when RSI overbought/oversold hits?

Like Tom, I am guided by price action and my first thought if things look rocky is to hedge with the DOW until things become clear(er).

good trading

jon

 

[Mr Flibble]

Going long 5076 target 5124 (50% retrace) s/l set at 5059. 3 reasons.

Bullish divergence.
Price action ( price pinging around in the 5060s range )
Draw a range from the last 2 lows we are around that level.

Good luck to me )

 

[tomorton]

Tom - I like that idea but with the current volatility one could be leaving quite a bit on the table as the ranges are very wide at the moment.
I like to get to b/e ASAP as my no.1 rule is "don't lose money".
I'm currently 95 points in profit with a 25 point, 5 step trailing stop. Probably too tight but......

Volatility and streched ranges make swing trading high risk alright. I like to get all out when I reach a target - very fed up re-setting stop to b/e, then seeing it hit same day for +£0. If I set a target and would be happy with that many points at the planning stage, I find no need to risk further losses (including opportunity) to bank more than that money.

 

[tomorton]

Going long 5076 target 5124 (50% retrace) s/l set at 5059. 3 reasons.

Bullish divergence.
Price action ( price pinging around in the 5060s range )
Draw a range from the last 2 lows we are around that level.

Good luck to me )

Cor blimey.
This could be very good TA (whether the trade works or not) but I find its too fine a focus for me to make it work - I go for the coarse measure of EOD prices, OHLC (one day I'm sure I will be moving to EOW OHLC's): if I start trying to take intraday levels between the H and L into account, I just get horribly confused and start arguing with myself and changing the timeframe until I find something that says I should get in long.

 

[Mr. G]

I like to get all out when I reach a target. If I set a target and would be happy with that many points at the planning stage, I find no need to risk further losses (including opportunity) to bank more than that money.

Wise words indeed Tom. :clap: I guess if you were to use a R:R method then your exits are defined - risk 50 to make 150 etc.

 

[thehoops16]

Hello,

I often set up trades on the FTSE. I normally find a prediction easier to make at about 9am after the initial reaction has occured and I can make a guess for the days following movement.

IMO it is important to stick to a certain £ per point and only be prepared to lose so much each day. For example the most I lose is £50 a day, however I set my trades with no limit (I tend to have time to follow the daily chart quite closely) I am not that experienced with ftse so only use £2.50 pp at the moment.

With the big movements occuring at the moment I think the most important thing is make as much profit as possible when you get thetrend right.

Thoughts? How do you people out there view the ftse atm/ generally trade it

 

[Mr Flibble]

Cor blimey.
This could be very good TA (whether the trade works or not) but I find its too fine a focus for me to make it work - I go for the coarse measure of EOD prices, OHLC (one day I'm sure I will be moving to EOW OHLC's): if I start trying to take intraday levels between the H and L into account, I just get horribly confused and start arguing with myself and changing the timeframe until I find something that says I should get in long.

Indeed and I just cannot take this stress anymore lol. I'm a wreck already today full of stress and I made some money imagine the days I don't.

 

[tomorton]

Wise words indeed Tom. :clap: I guess if you were to use a R:R method then your exits are defined - risk 50 to make 150 etc.

That's it really, set your parameters for the position and stick to them. Of course its galling when you take the 50 and the move continues another 200 over the rest of the week but my consolation is to normally find other trades within a week's trend,

 

[tomorton]

Hello,

I often set up trades on the FTSE. I normally find a prediction easier to make at about 9am after the initial reaction has occured and I can make a guess for the days following movement.

IMO it is important to stick to a certain £ per point and only be prepared to lose so much each day. For example the most I lose is £50 a day, however I set my trades with no limit (I tend to have time to follow the daily chart quite closely) I am not that experienced with ftse so only use £2.50 pp at the moment.

With the big movements occuring at the moment I think the most important thing is make as much profit as possible when you get thetrend right.

Thoughts? How do you people out there view the ftse atm/ generally trade it

I agree that 9 am is normally a helpful point to get in /out - reversals at 8:30 seem pretty common and a while ago I was playing 0930 reversals quite successfully: i'll go back to it at some point for fun I suppose.

Nice to have an asymmetrical risk:reward. I am currently being very cautious re trend, having got it wrong so often when I thought I knew so much about it. So I normally set my exit target and stick with it. Maybe the trend continues in the same direction and I could have got 2 or 3 or 4 times my actual reward but that's life: and meantime I have got the cash out and ready for a repeat entry into the same trend anyway. I am sniping and raiding, not manning a strongpoint.

 

[tomorton]

Indeed and I just cannot take this stress anymore lol. I'm a wreck already today full of stress and I made some money imagine the days I don't.

Don't get stressed Mr Flibble, its hard to trade well under stress.

 

[barjon]

hey, tomo - didn't know you could move so fast!!

 

[tomorton]

Yeah, that showed him didn't it?

Today's lower range confirmed the swing high, though shorters still holding aren't much better off, after the afternoon's rally.

But rally made an excellent hammer / hanging man pattern. Not at the highest point of the upswing but quite valid all the same, and further short entry signalled if we go all the way down through 5063.

 

[tomorton]

Maybe more likely is the 1-2-3 play, based on low 4898, high 5240, low 5063, suggesting long if we breach 5240.

 

[barjon]

ftse traded weak against dow for most of the day, although it put on a spurt at the death. i guess bp isn't helping ftse much.

if it continues trading weak you've gotta favour shorts. it'll follow the general direction of big brother, of course, so the shorts raids may be quick in and out jobs if the general direction is north.

good trading

jon