Swingin' the ftse 2010

[tomorton]

So, how things change in a few days since Tom's post above....or do they?

Anyone fancy today as a swing low?

Hmmm. Nothing conclusively bullish from the US but the decline has stoppped, for now. Nasdaq made a bullish pin bar, S&P and Dow made no easily bullish signals but at least closed in their upper ranges, while FTSE shows a near-doji.

Alright. Long signal going in at yesterday's FTSE high.

 

[tomorton]

Long entry order on FTSE at 28/04 high but not yet - waiting until late morning. Didn't want to get caught by early morning spike followed by gradual erosion.

Thinking of FTSE in the am (without US support) as many times resembling South America - at 8 o'clock, we're straight up the Andes to 20,000 feet - fantastic! Then slowly tumble down the right hand side into a swamp that slides into the sea.

 

[tomorton]

Long triggered and stopped by outside day 30/04. Three times in a row now stopped out of longs.

16/04 forms swing high at 5834: however, due to established uptrend, breach of its low on 19/04 should not have triggered a short position, in accordance with Rivalland swing trading rules. Attempts to re-join the uptrend may be thwarted for some time, until we breach 5834. But there will be intermediate signals in both directions before then - e.g. I am preparing to sell below 5533, low of 28/04: breach of this level would confirm 1-2-3 pattern (1=High 26/04, 2=Low 28/04, 3=High 30/04).

Interestingly, IT Finance tick charts already show this level breached and price fell another 40pts 30/04, before recovering last night and this am. Not sure whether this strengthens the pattern or weakens it but it certainly demonstrates the problem of translating TA decisions based on the underlying instrument into action via the SB market.

 

[vocalist]

Long triggered and stopped by outside day 30/04. Three times in a row now stopped out of longs.

16/04 forms swing high at 5834: however, due to established uptrend, breach of its low on 19/04 should not have triggered a short position, in accordance with Rivalland swing trading rules. Attempts to re-join the uptrend may be thwarted for some time, until we breach 5834. But there will be intermediate signals in both directions before then - e.g. I am preparing to sell below 5533, low of 28/04: breach of this level would confirm 1-2-3 pattern (1=High 26/04, 2=Low 28/04, 3=High 30/04).

Interestingly, IT Finance tick charts already show this level breached and price fell another 40pts 30/04, before recovering last night and this am. Not sure whether this strengthens the pattern or weakens it but it certainly demonstrates the problem of translating TA decisions based on the underlying instrument into action via the SB market.

Hi Tom. Sorry to hear about ya losing trades but its interesting to see that the Dax and the Cac have all breached swing lows so personally with a bit of intermarket checking it may be worth a wait. Just my penniesworth. Ash

 

[Splitlink]

Hi Tom. Sorry to hear about ya losing trades but its interesting to see that the Dax and the Cac have all breached swing lows so personally with a bit of intermarket checking it may be worth a wait. Just my penniesworth. Ash

Quiet day, though. I think that it can be left until tomorrow. As far as FT is concerned, I think I'll leave that alone until after the elections. Forex quiet, too.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Ash - I have always taken the DAX and CAC to be derivatives of the US, just like the FTSE, so the only cross-market checking I ever do is to refer to the S&P, aiming to hold positions in line with prevailing US trend. But if you have found the DAX and CAC to be predictive for the FTSE, now that would be interesting.

 

[vocalist]

Hi Ash - I have always taken the DAX and CAC to be derivatives of the US, just like the FTSE, so the only cross-market checking I ever do is to refer to the S&P, aiming to hold positions in line with prevailing US trend. But if you have found the DAX and CAC to be predictive for the FTSE, now that would be interesting.

What i tend to do Tom is look at all the markets, and take a judgment call. I dont think there is a 100% guaranteed method. My personal feeling is that you cant do too much intermarket checking. It just enables to stay out of choppy sideways moving moving markets. I will also take on board that there have been acouple of false triggers on the ftse. I have in the past seen the ftse react before the Nasdaq has. So at the moment I will not take any new Nasdaq trades of which is what I tend to trade.

 

[tomorton]

Oops - 30/04 potentially confirms 28/04 as swing low, calling for long at 5640+.

 

[vocalist]

Interesting to note that the semiconductor index has broken down

 

[vocalist]

sox chart below

 

[vocalist]

sox chart below

I understand this is a ftse thread but may have some relevance.

 

[tomorton]

Any index that reliably forecasts market moves must be a useful tool, and I have heard this of the semi-conductor index before.

My 1-2-3 short paid off today.

 

[tomorton]

Today is three-day putative swing low. I have my buy order in at the high but I don't expect the market will recover 155pts to breach the high. Hope I'm right as a stop-loss 167pts below the entry is more than a bit steep.

 

[tomorton]

Yesterday being such a deep down day it raises the possibility of a bounce today: could be played as an 80-20 daytrade, as price has traded below yesterday's low - buying at yesterday's low and stop at this morning's.

 

[barjon]

hi guys

just back from madeira

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Hi jon -

good cake?

tom

 

[Mr. G]

Yesterday being such a deep down day it raises the possibility of a bounce today: could be played as an 80-20 daytrade, as price has traded below yesterday's low - buying at yesterday's low and stop at this morning's.

An 80-20 day trade - what's that Tom?

And what's a 1-2-3 short?

 

[tomorton]

An 80-20 daytrade is set up by a day that opens in the top 20% of its daily range and closes in the bottom 20%. If the next day price trades moderately below the set-up day's low, set a buy order at the set-up day's low, with stop at the trigger day's low: hold for that session only: the signal itself only lasts for the session. Reverse the recipe above for shorts. (from Street Smarts by Raschke & Connors). Running one of these on the FTSE now.

A 1-2-3 trade uses a little reversal pattern that forms over as little as 4 sessions: a long entry would be signified by a new swing low, a higher high, then a low that fails to breach the earlier low and lies between it and the high - place a buy order at the high.
Described pretty well here -
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Rep...281b/3ee6e5cb-538c-4f66-b45d-8ab92bc2ecee.pdf

 

[Mr. G]

Another down day today. An order to open above today's high would be mean a pretty hideous stop, same as yesterday. The US is coming off of it's lows so we'll see.

 

[tomorton]

According to Sharescope chart, today was a near perfect morning star / inverted hammer pattern. This suggests a buy order to catch any rally tomorrow, high enough to obtain confirmation of bullish strength - above today's high? With a stop at the low, the 120pt risk is a bit steep but worth the risk I feel. Thoughts anyone?