swingin' the ftse: 2009

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Hi Jon - I saw this thread earlier but your illustration is a lot clearer. Although I don't have H-A charts, that still doesn't excuse me for not being long from July.
 
I am still attracted to the simple trend-following pattern of entering on second Close beyond 14EMA, if pattern scores 8pts or more as outlined earlier.

From the year's low in March, this performs pretty well - 3 successive Buy signals through March and April to signal a Long into the uptrend into the May-June congestion. An iffy 6pt Buy 27/05 and poor 6pt Sell 04/06 followed (only two failed signals during this period, not too bad). Then two 5pt Sells, which would have been ignored, 09/06 and 16/06, though the second would have turned out well enough. A 6pt Sell 03/07 would have caught the tail end of the move down from congestion. Capped off with an 8pt Buy on 15/07.

Stop position is covered as above, the opposite extreme of the 2-day signal pattern (admittedly further out than the same-day extreme in 3-day swing patterns, but maybe worth it when weak signals are eliminated). For profit target I would suggest the first Close with a positive return on the opposite side of the 14EMA as an alternative to the always debatable trailing % stop. I look forward to an interesting autumn learning to trade this pattern.
 
tomorton said:
Hi Jon - I saw this thread earlier but your illustration is a lot clearer. Although I don't have H-A charts, that still doesn't excuse me for not being long from July.
Click to expand...
Tom - you're being too hard on yourself!
If you want HA charts, download PRT - they have them and it's free.
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I've been having a little Friday afternoon play in the sandpit of TA and I have a modified version of the strategy outlined in the FF thread, linked in trendie's post on the thread linked in Jon's post. It goes like this . . .
Chart attached is a Heiken-Ashi chart with:
A. Bolly Bands set to the default of 2.0 standard deviations.
B. MACD set to a fast setting of 6,13,9.

Set Up:
1. The HA candle must kiss or breach the upper BB (for shorts) or the lower BB (for longs).
2. MACD should exhibit coequal or positive convergence with price coequal or falling (for longs) and coequal or negative divergence with price coequal or rising (for shorts).
Entry:
Once the set up has occurred (both 1 and 2, above), the next candle should be either a wide range doji or a candle of the opposing colour. (This may or may not be the same candle that's kissed/breached the BB).
Stop:
Just above/below the high/low of the candle that's kissed/breached the BB.
Exits:
Take half profits when the candle touches the opposing BB. For the remaining half, set a trailing stop beneath/above the low/high of the previous candle.
Notes:
Ignore inside candles (as in 1 on the chart).
Two trades shown on the chart - No. 1 a short and No. 2 a long.
I haven't tested this or anything, so I've no idea how it would work out in practice! Gotta go now, the missus has just come in and I'm wanted. Now!
Tim.
 

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"I haven't tested this or anything, so I've no idea how it would work out in practice! Gotta go now, the missus has just come in and I'm wanted. Now!"




hope your not building another new TA div / bolly method tim ?

this better work this time

If we have to move down the allotment :mad:

:)
 

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tomorton said:
Do you lads not think you've got too much time on your hands?
Click to expand...

only been online 5 mins today mother

no need to worry tomorton the mrs bought one of them timer clocks to protect me from myself :)

today ...........

logged on

saw my my setup and took it

working on my discipline tomorton and taking every setup however hard it is to execute :)



later

Andy
 
'no need to worry tomorton the mrs bought one of them timer clocks to protect me from myself :)'
Brilliant idea!

No trades for me today, few days off next week but I expect to see the Holy Grail of hopeful traders arise in glory on my return. Or else another empty teacup.
 
"No trades for me today, few days off next week but I expect to see the Holy Grail of hopeful traders arise in glory on my return. Or else another empty teacup"

that should save you some money

have a nice break

Andy
 
charts

no change in big box p&f charts (+1box 50pt)
 

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andy

aye - the fat lady put a foot on the stage yesterday, but she doesn't seem ready to break into song just yet. still favouring longs.

good trading

jon
 
Hi Jon

longs with short / medium trend

against the big one perhaps ?

ftse prints an up thrust ?

Usa all have some weakness from 1st Aug on

NDX ....... breakaway gap ? 1500 target anyone

could be going into topp"y formation ready for sept / oct

tim could have seen all this growing down the allotment, might just require a little more fertilizer to get those roots going :)


Andy
 
I'll keep riding this latest (from mid-july) up move while it lasts - both position and intraday. Talking to an Elliot Wave guru yesterday who is still fixated on the big picture and reckons we're going to 2200:)
He'll have a long wait I reckon.

good trading

jon
 
When everyone thinks 2200 is impossible it then becomes more likely but otherwise I agree, I dont quite get their whole deflation argument but they are hard core chartists

2200 vs gold maybe but not in uk currency, theres two sides to every deal and in this one I would not back pounds over stocks


LARRY MCMILLAN said:
studys showed an 89% correlation between 1938 and 2009
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
:) Well if it goes that way we'll get plenty of warning and time to climb aboard. In the meantime..............

jon
 
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