Should vendors only be allowed to post a 'vendor section'

[The Leopard]

but i don't think that's really made the point. Because what you've said is that you're expecting to lose, rather than expecting to win. You're still expecting/forecasting/predicting, you're just doing it in the other direction.

ok.

 

[the hare]

Trading ultimately is about probabilities. That's one of the many reasons that I used to laugh at old Swanny and call him Walter, because he used to go on about being a "consistently profitable trader".

kinell bud, its not rocket science. He was matched hardened, with his nut in the game, trading the smalls, flying under the radar, circa 20 pip stop.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

Aiming for consistency really is another bad thing to be honest (because it's artificial, and irrelevant to profitability), if you let it affect what you do, and in the end I think these things always do affect you. Different I suppose if you really can't handle not being consistent, and it's legitimate to give up some return for consistency, but the need for it is not generally going to be a good trait. I don't even look at monthly returns now, it's just too short a period.

this is interesting Leopardo. I would be interested to know why you think aiming for consistency is a bad thing. Trading with scared money or being afraid of a loss can play haywire with the emotions for sure. For me consistency of returns would be a function of my edge and the number of times I applied it. Say for example I had a 75% edge and applied it 10 times per month, then as you say a monthly loss would not be meaningful, a quarterly loss would be meaningful and you would have to start looking if you were executing right or if the edge is breaking down.

Now take a 60% edge that is applied 50 to 100 times per day, we would not expect any losing weeks, certainly a losing month would indicate a big execution problem or that the edge is breaking down.

So my thinking is that the time frame we judge consistency on very much depends on our edge and how many times we can apply it. When we look at the HFT automated prop trading we see a preference for high sharpe ratio edges that can be applied 100's of times a day to ensure intra day profitability.

for a trader who is doing 50 to 100 round turns of futures or stocks per day a monthly loss would be horrific. as ever there are different styles of trading, I would hazard a guess that you are taking 2 or 3 trades per week with a solid edge??????

as ever many different ways to skin a cat....

 

[forker]

Jeeeeeesus I must be getting old. I just realised who Mr spotty is...

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

kinell bud, its not rocket science. He was matched hardened, with his nut in the game, trading the smalls, flying under the radar, circa 20 pip stop.

awe bless old swanny and his 'all strategies work' vendor video.

 

[forker]

Wonder why I always have these aha moments after a few bottles of joy

 

[Shakone]

ok.

I agree with most of the post, it just seemed like you were saying it's not semantics, that you don't make forecasts, and then straight after, saying you expect every trade to lose. If I've misunderstood that, please clarify. Now that might be a healthier or more practical view to have upon entry, and might stop you being stubborn with losers, but it doesn't change that essentially it's an expectation.

There are lots of things I expect to happen and things I expect to not happen after entry. When things go against my expectation, that's one of the ways I know I should be getting out. Of course I wouldn't expect every trade to be a winner, but if I didn't expect (that word again!) that over a large enough sample these trades would yield a profit overall, then I wouldn't be taking them. And that applies even if you're just taking random entries and profiting from fat tails and a bit of know-how in terms of exits. You have to expect that over the series of trades, a certain property of price will be present at some point that will allow you to profit. If you didn't expect that property/set of circumstances to be there, you wouldn't take any trades at all.

 

[the hare]

You have to expect that over the series of trades, a certain property of price will be present at some point that will allow you to profit.

Its the series of trades bit that's the key. An expectation over the series, but not for a single trade.

 

[The Leopard]

this is interesting Leopardo. I would be interested to know why you think aiming for consistency is a bad thing.

It doesn't have to be, I just think that for most people it is likely to be.

The reason being it is an artificial thing that should be of no consequence, and if the pursuit of it affects your decisions then that's likely to be detrimental.

I just aim to make money. I can spend that on whores, brandy and PCP. My dealer doesn't recognise consistency as a currency though. He doesn't take pips either.

Frequency does come into it. If you are taking a few hundred trades a day your circumstances are different to someone taking 10 a month.

By the way, a lot of those HFT firms operate on very thin win rates (and plenty operate on less than a coin toss).

Whilst we're on the subject, win rate is another irrelevance, the pursuit of which can easily impact profitability in a negative manner. It's something that used to bother me but now I don't even know what it is.

Again, my dealer doesn't accept payment in win rate.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Its the series of trades bit that's the key. An expectation over the series, but not for a single trade.

Didn't you say the coin flip is the key ? I think you have too many keys.

 

[The Leopard]

I agree with most of the post, it just seemed like you were saying it's not semantics, that you don't make forecasts, and then straight after, saying you expect every trade to lose. If I've misunderstood that, please clarify. Now that might be a healthier or more practical view to have upon entry, and might stop you being stubborn with losers, but it doesn't change that essentially it's an expectation.

There are lots of things I expect to happen and things I expect to not happen after entry. When things go against my expectation, that's one of the ways I know I should be getting out. Of course I wouldn't expect every trade to be a winner, but if I didn't expect (that word again!) that over a large enough sample these trades would yield a profit overall, then I wouldn't be taking them. And that applies even if you're just taking random entries and profiting from fat tails and a bit of know-how in terms of exits. You have to expect that over the series of trades, a certain property of price will be present at some point that will allow you to profit. If you didn't expect that property/set of circumstances to be there, you wouldn't take any trades at all.

I don't make forecasts. At the same time, I've got spread and commission to make up.

Every trade is a loser for me until something happens to change that. That's not making forecasts or having expectations, that's just seeing the facts in front of me.

 

[212]

awe bless old swanny and his 'all strategies work' vendor video.

the 89 boxes have been milked to death so lets have another go at our swanny

Real life trader - Paul Holmes - YouTube

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Every trade is a loser for me until something happens to change that. That's not making forecasts or having expectations, that's just seeing the facts in front of me.

Sounds very much like you are in it to win it. Choccy's not quit up on that concept yet.

 

[The Leopard]

I agree with most of the post, it just seemed like you were saying it's not semantics, that you don't make forecasts, and then straight after, saying you expect every trade to lose.

Since we're being strictly accurate, I've re-read the post and I don't think I said 'expect', I said 'assume'.

That part should have been expressed more clearly. I wrote about assuming every trade being a loser when I open it. Perhaps I should have written more carefully (although it was a very long post and I couldn't be bothered to proof it properly). By 'every' I mean each individual trade at the time I take it, rather than all of them as a whole.

 

[the hare]

Didn't you say the coin flip is the key ? I think you have too many keys.

The coin flip helps

I could probably make as much money always trading in the same direction !

you really dont get this stuff do you

 

[The Leopard]

The coin flip helps

I could probably make as much money always trading in the same direction !

you really dont get this stuff do you

I think everyone is wrong about Joe.

I suspect he gets a lot more than he lets on. He also gets (and generates) a ton of lulz into the bargain.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

;1925580Choccy's not quit up on that concept yet.

do you want to compare statements BJ? my prop report against your Oanda micro account. :clap:

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

I think everyone is wrong about Joe.

I suspect he gets a lot more than he lets on. He also gets (and generates) a ton of lulz into the bargain.

I have had my suspicions...........................

 

[Shakone]

I don't make forecasts. At the same time, I've got spread and commission to make up.

Every trade is a loser for me until something happens to change that. That's not making forecasts or having expectations, that's just seeing the facts in front of me.

I understand the reality of it once you've clicked. Now why do you go from no loss - because you haven't entered - to running loss once you have? Multiply it over a series of 100 trades if you prefer. Why do you choose to go from no loss, to costs and spread loss times 100? Because you're expecting something to happen over those 100 trades that will yield an overall profit.

The outcome of any trade is random, a number, positive or negative. The outcome of any 10 trades is also random, a number, positive or negative, and so on for any amount of trades. For any number of trades, there can always be a series which is negative. If you have no expectations on a single trade, equally you shouldn't have any expectations on 10 trades or 100.

Is it possible that it's simply that you have a method that has a lower than 50% win rate, and therefore, quite naturally you wouldn't expect the trade to win?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

do you want to compare statements BJ? my prop report against your Oanda micro account. :clap:

Sorry, being a pro myself, I can't show statements. Maybe you can compare with the hare.