My Journal - Pathways to Improvement

Hi R,
Thanks for your reply. Now I understand your approach. So with you having a 30-35 pips Stop loss you win/lose 1%. Then basically you’re making around 2% daily, which is pretty good.

Now I see why you trade GA. With that SL it’s possible, but with F’s method I don’t think it’s possible with a soft SL of 5 pips.

Keep up the good trading(y).
Cheers,
Keen246

Hi K,
Percentage risk and R/R are 2 different things.
IMHO:
  • Percentage risk is an "exact science" while R/R is not.
  • You take a trade, then your maximum percentage risk is set relatively to your equity.
  • If you are absolutely sure that your trade is well oriented then you won't cut your loss and then you modify your R/R but not your Max percentage risk that is already set.
*******
Till now F has told Sun to trade especially majors or low volatility/spread pairs like EU, UJ ... So the 3-5 pips SL is perfect for these pairs.
What I tried to explain is that SL is relative to the volatility or bar size of the pair; that's why I describe how I calculate it.
Loss can be higher but gains as well and come faster.
Using this calculation I get the same SL as F on majors so I think it's absolutely possible to trade GN, EA or GJ using F's method...

Cheers.
R.
 
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Hi K,
Percentage risk and R/R are 2 different things.
IMHO:
  • Percentage risk is an "exact science" while R/R is not.
  • You take a trade, then your maximum percentage risk is set relatively to your equity.
  • If you are absolutely sure that your trade is well oriented then you won't cut your loss and then you modify your R/R but not your Max percentage risk that is already set.
*******
Till now F has told Sun to trade especially majors or low volatility/spread pairs like EU, UJ ... So the 3-5 pips SL is perfect for these pairs.
What I tried to explain is that SL is relative to the volatility or bar size of the pair; that's why I describe how I calculate it.
Loss can be higher but gains as well and come faster.
Using this calculation I get the same SL as F on majors so I think it's absolutely possible to trade GN, EA or GJ using F's method...

Cheers.
R.
Agree with most of your observations R. However, you mentioned that on EU you use 30-35 SL whereas F uses SL of barely 2 pips! That's completely different in every sense of trading.

Try a few trades with GJ or GA with a 5 stop loss. One would need supernatural powers to enter exactly at the close of a bar than won't retrace just a bit (during normal volatility hours).

As I posted before, my winning % drops dramatically as I tighten up the SL. It’s just probability proving itself.
I think Sun is also using very tight SLs. Her results are pretty realistic and in line with my observations (as long as one is very disciplined).
Cheers
 
Hi All

I will pop in and join in with you comments later on today

Just waiting to see how Sun has got on as well and then we can look more at the devil in the details part etc

Regards

F
 
Agree with most of your observations R. However, you mentioned that on EU you use 30-35 SL whereas F uses SL of barely 2 pips! That's completely different in every sense of trading.

Try a few trades with GJ or GA with a 5 stop loss. One would need supernatural powers to enter exactly at the close of a bar than won't retrace just a bit (during normal volatility hours).

As I posted before, my winning % drops dramatically as I tighten up the SL. It’s just probability proving itself.
I think Sun is also using very tight SLs. Her results are pretty realistic and in line with my observations (as long as one is very disciplined).
Cheers

I think that you are mixing pips and points K;
Read carefully what I wrote and what F wrote:
30 points = 3 pips
No one can trade with a SL at 3 points it would be less than the spread...

R.
 
100 pips

I finally made it !
GA is another wonderful pair (thanks K)
Must do it everyday now. :eek:
Stats 100.jpg

R.
 
I think that you are mixing pips and points K;
Read carefully what I wrote and what F wrote:
30 points = 3 pips
No one can trade with a SL at 3 points it would be less than the spread...

R.

I just talk about PIPs. All my comments are referencing to pips. Not sure what you call points on fx.
Let's keep on making pips!;)
Cheers
 
Hi R,
Thanks for your reply. Now I understand your approach. So with you having a 30-35 pips Stop loss you win/lose 1%. Then basically you’re making around 2% daily, which is pretty good.

Now I see why you trade GA. With that SL it’s possible, but with F’s method I don’t think it’s possible with a soft SL of 5 pips.

Keep up the good trading(y).
Cheers,
Keen246

Hi K and R

I would agree that if you can make just 1 or 2% per day fairly consistently - then you are doing well - anything over 25% per months non compounded is a good return

However the real trick is still having as tight as stops as possible - ie 3 to 7 pips maximum - ie 3 to 5 pip stops on spreads of 1 or less and 5 to 7 pips stops on spreads of 2 or 3 pips.

You dont have to risk 1% or 2% of your capital - just 0 3 to 0 5% on say 5 pips.

That means when you multi trade with say 15 or 20+ trades you are efficient and not waste time making just 17 pips and only getting a 1% or less gain - or on 20 -30 pip stops wasting 30 or 60 mins before getting stopped out.

You want to know the trade is working ASAP. So a 5 pip stop and a 22 pip result on a busy pair in say 15 mins makes you a RR of 4 and 2% return on 0 5% or even 4% return on just 1% stake size.

By having stops at 20 to 35 pips for 1% - then even a 22 pip move does not make you a 1% return. Thats no good

OK you might say - but I keep getting stopped out on 5 pip stops and my win ratio is under 50%

If thats the case - then you have not reached the level I require on scalping - ie stage 1 to stage 3 - win ratios of 65% to 80% on batches of 100 trades with average 5 pips stops.

Once you have cracked perfect or near perfect entries - and they are possible when you reach the required skill level - suddenly 4 to 8% winning days are on with just risk of 0 5 % stake per trade.

Major Magnum was some days doing over 20% per day on a live account with multi stakes and trades and stakes under 1% and win ratios over 80% on batches of 100 trades after about 6 months - with no previous experience on scalping - so rest assured it can all be done - even without having taken 5 or 10k live trades

I suggest you want a method that makes you just 1 or 2% on bad days - 2 to 4% average days and good days - ie the 100 pip + days then look at 6% +

Losing days should never be over 3% - ie 6 consecutive losses in a row at 0 5 % stake size- meaning if on a 18 day trading month - if you had 3 losing days until you are very experienced - you lost no more than 10% of your account - but the other 15 winning days of a low 1% to a high 8% make say 30 to 50% giving you a net 40% gain ROC in a month ( remember no compounding and retail size accounts - not multi million capital accounts - totally a different ball game )

So R - we need to get your entries accurate. If you love the GJ and other pairs with 3 pip spreads - then stops can be 7 pips - but no more .- yes it can be done - PS my spreads on GJ are 2+ to 3 pips and EA 1.6 to 2 pips on average.

EU / AU / UJ etc pairs with spreads now under 1 pip can be taken with 3 or 4 pips soft stops - never wait neither if you have a 5 or 7 pips stops - if its not working - then get out minus 3 pips don't wait for minus 5 or minus 7.

More on this over the next few days

Regards

F
 

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Day 53

Morning Sun

Take it easy for few days back - ie to get back into the routine

Sorry not got that template on Excel- as copied off another template I used for previous testing - but certainly worth setting up on excel for yourself and your own FX pairs and own times etc

Speak to you later and don't forget the time changes and also Pound red news at 9 30 am UK time

Regards


F

Thank you F for your advice. But unfortunately I missed it. As i thought I will trade from Tuesday irrespective of having tonsil pain & fever I traded forcefully on a non ECN real account. I had some money left in there really small balance so was testing my nerve. After 3 consecutive losses, I lost 12 pips. So I stopped trading.

ST 1.png

Now if you say that I continue on that account until i recover that loss. Then only i will continue from today. Otherwise, I will trade real after mid of November on ECN.

On this account on those major pairs, spread was below 2. No commission.

Looking for your view.

Regards
 
Thank you F for your advice. But unfortunately I missed it. As i thought I will trade from Tuesday irrespective of having tonsil pain & fever I traded forcefully on a non ECN real account. I had some money left in there really small balance so was testing my nerve. After 3 consecutive losses, I lost 12 pips. So I stopped trading.

View attachment 203894

Now if you say that I continue on that account until i recover that loss. Then only i will continue from today. Otherwise, I will trade real after mid of November on ECN.

On this account on those major pairs, spread was below 2. No commission.

Looking for your view.

Regards

Morning Sun

While you are still getting use to scalping etc and having not been trading for over a week - I suggest you stay on demo maybe today and tomorrow - to get you focused and in the intraday trading zone.

Only when you feel you are in sync with the intraday market moves go back to the live account. You need to feel confident and positive - and 3 consecutive losses - even only 12 pips ( excellent discipline again ) would frustrate you and not help you stay focused etc etc

Don't worry - everytime I come back off an holiday or a long weekend - first morning back trading - I take it easy and try and get a few winners before I go to normal trading size etc etc

Have a good day and this week we will look next at progression for November

Regards


F
 
Day 54

Morning Sun

While you are still getting use to scalping etc and having not been trading for over a week - I suggest you stay on demo maybe today and tomorrow - to get you focused and in the intraday trading zone.

Only when you feel you are in sync with the intraday market moves go back to the live account. You need to feel confident and positive - and 3 consecutive losses - even only 12 pips ( excellent discipline again ) would frustrate you and not help you stay focused etc etc

Don't worry - everytime I come back off an holiday or a long weekend - first morning back trading - I take it easy and try and get a few winners before I go to normal trading size etc etc

Have a good day and this week we will look next at progression for November

Regards


F

Morning F,

Trading with ECN account is easy as my demo is in profit currently. I reached daily target.
Thanks to UJ breakout.

S 2.png

Largest Win: 5.7 pips
Largest Loss: 5.8 pips
Win rate: 66%
Pips earning: 26

Now out of lunch. Back in during US session. To see if any more opportunity to practice.

Regards
 
k results 10-28

Hi all,

Today I decided I’m going to post my results. I think it’s the most honest and meaningful way people can have a clear picture. No sugar coating, just real and plain results. I don’t mind showing 50 pips profits or -50 pips loss. It’s demo account, of course.

All the trades are based on F’s method following his rules to the letter: closing losing trades before -5 pips (when possible), trades taken around key times on interim S/R high/lows with quick LRs crossing, PA.
I don’t have a magic ball to forecast reversals to the pip, so the entries are solely based on the method. Sometimes I have 20 trades daily, sometimes 5. Today 13.

Please note that the net pips are not 12.9 (I wish). The broker takes almost all of the money, so the actual result is 12.9 - (13 trades x 0.8 (comm $8/Lot)) = +2.5 NET Pips. Jey!!!:clap: Didn't lose today!
 

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Hi K and R

I would agree that if you can make just 1 or 2% per day fairly consistently - then you are doing well - anything over 25% per months non compounded is a good return

However the real trick is still having as tight as stops as possible - ie 3 to 7 pips maximum - ie 3 to 5 pip stops on spreads of 1 or less and 5 to 7 pips stops on spreads of 2 or 3 pips.

You dont have to risk 1% or 2% of your capital - just 0 3 to 0 5% on say 5 pips.

That means when you multi trade with say 15 or 20+ trades you are efficient and not waste time making just 17 pips and only getting a 1% or less gain - or on 20 -30 pip stops wasting 30 or 60 mins before getting stopped out.

You want to know the trade is working ASAP. So a 5 pip stop and a 22 pip result on a busy pair in say 15 mins makes you a RR of 4 and 2% return on 0 5% or even 4% return on just 1% stake size.

By having stops at 20 to 35 pips for 1% - then even a 22 pip move does not make you a 1% return. Thats no good

OK you might say - but I keep getting stopped out on 5 pip stops and my win ratio is under 50%

If thats the case - then you have not reached the level I require on scalping - ie stage 1 to stage 3 - win ratios of 65% to 80% on batches of 100 trades with average 5 pips stops.

Once you have cracked perfect or near perfect entries - and they are possible when you reach the required skill level - suddenly 4 to 8% winning days are on with just risk of 0 5 % stake per trade.

Major Magnum was some days doing over 20% per day on a live account with multi stakes and trades and stakes under 1% and win ratios over 80% on batches of 100 trades after about 6 months - with no previous experience on scalping - so rest assured it can all be done - even without having taken 5 or 10k live trades

I suggest you want a method that makes you just 1 or 2% on bad days - 2 to 4% average days and good days - ie the 100 pip + days then look at 6% +

Losing days should never be over 3% - ie 6 consecutive losses in a row at 0 5 % stake size- meaning if on a 18 day trading month - if you had 3 losing days until you are very experienced - you lost no more than 10% of your account - but the other 15 winning days of a low 1% to a high 8% make say 30 to 50% giving you a net 40% gain ROC in a month ( remember no compounding and retail size accounts - not multi million capital accounts - totally a different ball game )

So R - we need to get your entries accurate. If you love the GJ and other pairs with 3 pip spreads - then stops can be 7 pips - but no more .- yes it can be done - PS my spreads on GJ are 2+ to 3 pips and EA 1.6 to 2 pips on average.

EU / AU / UJ etc pairs with spreads now under 1 pip can be taken with 3 or 4 pips soft stops - never wait neither if you have a 5 or 7 pips stops - if its not working - then get out minus 3 pips don't wait for minus 5 or minus 7.

More on this over the next few days

Regards

F

that's some respectable trading there dude (y)
 
Hi all,

Today I decided I’m going to post my results. I think it’s the most honest and meaningful way people can have a clear picture. No sugar coating, just real and plain results. I don’t mind showing 50 pips profits or -50 pips loss. It’s demo account, of course.

All the trades are based on F’s method following his rules to the letter: closing losing trades before -5 pips (when possible), trades taken around key times on interim S/R high/lows with quick LRs crossing, PA.
I don’t have a magic ball to forecast reversals to the pip, so the entries are solely based on the method. Sometimes I have 20 trades daily, sometimes 5. Today 13.

Please note that the net pips are not 12.9 (I wish). The broker takes almost all of the money, so the actual result is 12.9 - (13 trades x 0.8 (comm $8/Lot)) = +2.5 NET Pips. Jey!!!:clap: Didn't lose today!

Hi K

WD - no loss - thats half the battle in your favour

Now we can exam your results and do the fine tuning etc etc

First thing I did was note the broker times - I appreciate you are in S Africa - are your broker times GMT or whats the difference ?

Next point - sensible - 2 pairs EU and EJ - so some sessions they will be in sync etc

Then win ratio - thats the worry - ie not over 60% - but you still finished positive so not to bad

Need to see your chart setting on either EU or EJ and how they look on your broker chart - maybe fine tuning needed on 3 fastest LR's

Next point - you are disciplined - well done - and cut quickly etc

We need you to catch some more winners over 7 pips + - the 2 to 4 pip winners OK - but with commission they are taking your profits - spreads and commissions on the 10 to 20 pip winners are relatively small in comparison

I can see how we can improve you - no problem

Need more info though off you and then i can start helping more

Thank you for sharing

Regards


F
 
Morning Sun

Nearly 11 00 am UK time now

I know early on this morning you said you had found the EU difficult

From after 2 00 am UK time I had had it slightly bullish - but the EO after 7 30 am UK time gave it a drop before a proper rise started again after 8 09 am

Since then - its risen 55 pips up to 10 20 am ish and then we had a 20+ pip fall and bounce at 10 39 am

I appreciate you have not got the full combination of LRs to assist with Price structure - its stage 4 onwards

We can start next week for November as they will help you - and I think you have been able to follow the scalping ones OK so far - so time for progress

Let me know when you want to start stage 4

Have a good day

Regards


F
 
Hi Forexmospherian,

Having a question in mind, if you get time , please have a look.

Considering one of your chart on EU.
EU - 291015 5TH SCALP GAIN.png

In this chart, I marked a blue arrow, there was a cross over too. But you haven't taken the buy trades. It was also touching a long term LR. But it wasn't within the hourly KT. So that is the reason why you haven't take it?

Those 3 highlighted trades was within the KT. So filtering the SSS with KT.

Am I right?

Sorry if its too silly question to ask. I was just trying to confirm from you.

If price stays above all LR & keeping going up. Then it has to meet a resistance & come back below the all long term LR. There are any many false cross over too. Not all the cross over are the major hits.
So KT along with PAC.

Please do correct me if I'm wrong.

Thank you for your time.

Regards
 
Hi Forexmospherian,

Having a question in mind, if you get time , please have a look.

Considering one of your chart on EU.
View attachment 204066

In this chart, I marked a blue arrow, there was a cross over too. But you haven't taken the buy trades. It was also touching a long term LR. But it wasn't within the hourly KT. So that is the reason why you haven't take it?

Those 3 highlighted trades was within the KT. So filtering the SSS with KT.

Am I right?

Sorry if its too silly question to ask. I was just trying to confirm from you.

If price stays above all LR & keeping going up. Then it has to meet a resistance & come back below the all long term LR. There are any many false cross over too. Not all the cross over are the major hits.
So KT along with PAC.

Please do correct me if I'm wrong.

Thank you for your time.

Regards

Morning Sun

Don't worry - there are never any silly questions in understanding FX trading and you are correct to point out a very valid question - why do I not scalp buy at the blue Arrow??

Well first answer would be - I could have and if I solely scalped i would have made maybe 3 to 5 pips net off it.

But I did not take it as was expecting a lower price for the LO and basically a bear trap - ie false fall to get bears in - before stopping them out.

So my other mid range LRs' - note the blue one and black dotted ones said stay with sells - and therefore I was then down to partial stakes - ( not the 100% stake of initial scalp sell ) so could afford to risk a pullback.

I therefore cherry picked my scalps and decided to ignore that one - and thankfully I was correct.

Dont worry - i never get scalps 100% correct - I am delighted on 75 -85% win ratios and many times have to live with only 65 -70 % - the days I cherry pick the wrong scalps.

You are also correct about the time - I was waiting for 8 00 am TW and to see if price fell lower to 0900

With price stopping just in 8 am TW and quick lrs going under at a KT - then that said - bear trap - as long as PA and the bounce stayed above 0917 - I bought

From then on - its more time rules ( not KT's or TW's - time rules on interim highs and low)

Hope that part makes sense and will say now 0975 to 80 is providing a strong R area

To stay with buys we need the EU to stay above 0950 and then try and crack over 85 +

GL

Regards


F
 
Day 55

10-29-2015.png

Largest Win : 5.9
Largest Loss: 5.1
Win rate: 67%

I don't know what to say about this result. One side its hows 31 pips profit & but in another side it shows -5 pip loss in money value. EU, UCHF was being real bad for me. But JPY was nice. Obviously in this stage not in everyday all the pairs will be profitable. I have no problem with that, diversification is nice. :rolleyes:

But my problem is adding positions. In real account I generally stop trading after -10 pips loss & retry later. But in this demo case, need to set up my mind in similar way.

Being reckless is bad thing. Its my problem from the first day I started trading. So will find a way to control it. :(

If I see -20 pips loss in my account. It starts to freak me out. :sick:
 
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