my journal 3

ng taking off

After months of waiting, I think NG is finally taking off like a rocket.

Snap1.jpg

Having a small capital, I can only be on board with a small QG contract.
 
Second day of no personal stuff at work. Second of a long series. I went 20 minutes early (50 minutes compared to the maximum entry time). Again, no yelling whatsoever, but he showed instead some appreciation. I took the blame for some imaginary mistake I had made (he found no mistakes for a year, but has found 20 mistakes in what I am doing in 3 days - close to mobbing, if he weren't so stupid). Actually it was his mistake altogether, but I said "I am sorry" anyway, because it was the most effective answer, in order to prevent further yelling. All I care is that I do not get yelled at, because my reputation is all I've got, and I cannot accept being yelled at by anyone.

[...]

Went to a movie with the former neighbour. Another French movie. Tomorrow will go to another one. Too frustrated about the office to stay at home: too much at risk of frustrationary trading.
 
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Is the Internet Becoming the Bot Net? | Endless Innovation | Big Think

Interesting article. I am about to go to the office for my third day in a row of "no personal stuff at work". So I will go there early, leave a bit later than my schedule, spend all day working: as usual no phone calls, no coffee breaks... just work. The big change is that I won't do any math nor financial stuff during the day. As I said in the previous posts, this is what I deem necessary in order to make sure that yelling of last Friday was a one-time-only event. The boss is an idiot, agreed, but I want to make sure I try everything in order to keep him from disrespecting me.

Ok, going to the office now, and then tonight another movie, to keep myself from frustrationary trading at a time like this, when it's very likely to happen, due to frustrations at the office. I'm going to need some activity for this week and next week. The boss is so random and disorderly in his behaviour that he's going to destabilize me for at least another two weeks.

Then he'll probably move on to trying to fix another one of his problem in pretty much the same way, by yelling at the sink, the bath tub, his car... he cannot understand a reasoning approach. If something doesn't work, he yells, and it's up to the thing that isn't working to fix itself, whether a human or an inanimate object.

Well, I fixed myself, I think. After this new totally irreprehensible behaviour, if anyone yells at me, I am going to open the window and kindly let them out.
 
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Just office work at the office. Going on time. Sleeping well. Watching movies. Dinner with family friends. I had a normal day today, one of those regular days for normal people, something I hadn't had for years. This is optimal for automated trading, because it excludes the risk of tampering and the risk of frustrationary trading. Of course it is only optimal if up to now you've done all the homework there was to do like I did. Because basically this lifestyle is more relaxing but it means I am not doing any math, not studying any portfolio theory, not doing any reasoning on my systems, not creating any new systems, not checking and double-checking and triple-checking and umpteenth-checking any potential problems... I am doing nothing, like regular people.

This is good. Because I need to let the systems work by themselves, without any intervention.

The systems worked all alone, today and yesterday and Monday, too. They've lost about 800 dollars in the last 3 days.

Now i'll watch the usual Celebrity Survivor online and then i'll go to bed.
 
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I am about to go to the office, for my fourth day in a row of "no personal stuff at work". This afternoon, when I'll come back, it will be hard to not tamper with the systems, because there are no movies planned and so I'll be home. When I'm home, and frustrated, I am in danger of tampering. On the other hand, today is a day full of trades usually so there might be no capital available for tampering. If I do engage in frustrationary trading, there might be a good opportunity on NG (long) and on GBL (short). Anything else would be compulsive gambling at its worst.
 
Back from work. No yelling today either. I am getting used to having a totally clean conscience. Today, too: no personal stuff at work, at all. Zero. Not even checking my (personal) email.

And I am starting to enjoy my work actually. It's quite interesting to study people's accounts and look for suspicious transactions.
 
Another good yelling-free day at work. As usual I went early, worked on office work only, and the boss didn't bother me.

I haven't been doing any portfolio theory lately. It seems that I've taken it as far as it could be taken by a non-mathematician like me.

Today there's no trading, as it's Good Friday, so there's really nothing to say at all for a few days.
 
Back from a long weekend but still not much to say, maybe because I've stopped doing math and portfolio theory at work and that was where I got most of my insights. But it's not just that: I am at a point where I can go no further without the help of a mathematician. I could go a bit further, but the cost/benefit ratio is very disadvantageous.

At the same time, since I just do office work at the office, and just go to the movies and to various dinners once I get home, there's not much to complain about. There's nothing anyone could ever reproach me for at work, because i just work all the time, and my brain has kind of slowed down, since I don't do much reasoning any more (regular work and social life puts my brain to sleep basically, since it makes me interact with idiots - most people are).

So basically, if things keep going like this, I will wait for comments here, and then reply. Or maybe I'll post a couple of times per week. Provided that, as I said, I don't feel like complaining about something, in which case I'll write more often. But as far as my usual insights and reasoning out loud on this journal, I am momentarily retired.
 
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Stephen Schork... very interesting video:

$2 Natural Gas A Bottom Price FOX BUSINESS - YouTube

So he's saying something like: natural gas is a byproduct of oil (you drill for oil and you also get natural gas) and so it doesn't matter if the producers are losing on it (he says they're losing at any price below 3 dollars), because they can use the other things they're drilling for. In fact this seems to be confirmed by the fact that Exxon drills oil and gas and its stock went up in the last few years, and Chesapeake only drills gas and its stock went down in the last few years.

This interview was much more interesting than the usual interviews you hear on these programs. I guess it's because they're interviewing one person at a time rather than six, like here:
U.S. Nat. Gas Futures Rebound - CNBC

[...]

I was right in what i said about "associated gas", but Schork was actually referring to "non-associated gas". Both are explained more clearly at this link:
U.S. Has A Natural Gas Problem: Too Much Of It : NPR
Ricchiuti cites one more reason production continues despite the low natural gas prices.

"About a third of all natural gas wells have a certain amount of what we call natural gas liquids," he says, "that could be propane or butane, things like that. And that's very valuable."

In fact, it would make economic sense for producers to keep pumping even if the natural gas price goes to zero.

Fred Callon, a small independent producer based in Mississippi, says that same logic holds for some of his crude oil wells in the Permian Basin in Texas.

"Our projects out in the Permian Basin, of course, are driven by the crude oil prices, and to the extent that they have associated gas, then that is sold, and so there is new natural gas coming to the market," Callon says.
Click to expand...

[...]

I am somewhat getting interested in fundamental analysis. I will not use it for my systems, but out of curiosity. And to get something out of my frustrationary trading.

My gbl and ng trades got me interested in this. I've been doing a lot of researching. Here's some of the awesome links I found:
Home - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy
File:Energy-consumption-per-capita-2003.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
File:2004 Worldwide Energy Sources graph.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of companies by revenue - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
natural gas - CNBC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic:$natgas
http://www.watchfreemovies.ch/watch-movies/2010/watch-gasland-211332/

This is good, too, but very hard to understand:

Cramer: Natural Gas Pains Won't Last - YouTube

It all began here, more or less:

Working Model of Stephenson's STEAM ENGINE made of GLASS ! Rare! - YouTube

Actually the earliest form of mechanical energy might have been this:
Water wheel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Watermill - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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jackass light a fart - YouTube

Which gas is produced when you fart
The major components of the flatus (which are odorless) by percentage are:

- Nitrogen 20% - 90%
- Hydrogen 0% - 50%
- Carbon Dioxide 10% - 30%
- Oxygen 0% - 10%
- Methane 0% - 10%

The gas released during a flatus event frequently has a foul odor which mainly results from low molecular weight fatty acids such as butyric acid (rancid butter smell) and reduced sulfur compounds such as hydrogen sulfide (rotten egg smell) and carbonyl sulfide that are the result of protein breakdown.
Click to expand...

Zack farts on a candle, Successfully!! REAL FLAME! - YouTube

Explosions of Methane - YouTube

Dumb and Dumber Lloyd Christmas's dream scene HQ - YouTube
 
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petroleum refining basics - YouTube

The Story of Gasoline (1927) - Refinery and Transport of fuel - YouTube

The Story Of Gasoline (1924) - YouTube

Fossil Fuels

A case study: propane.
Propane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Propane is produced as a by-product of two other processes, natural gas processing and petroleum refining. The processing of natural gas involves removal of butane, propane, and large amounts of ethane from the raw gas, in order to prevent condensation of these volatiles in natural gas pipelines. Additionally, oil refineries produce some propane as a by-product of cracking petroleum into gasoline or heating oil. The supply of propane cannot easily be adjusted to meet increased demand, because of the by-product nature of propane production.
Click to expand...

world-energy-consumption-by-source.png
 
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