my journal 3

discretionary update

I've updated my ideas on the markets with a synthesis for every future:
View attachment index.html

For the first time, I have developed a comprehensive and articulate action plan.

idea2develop

The principle of my new type of trading (which doesn't mean I am stopping my automated trading) is that I know where we are and how overbought/oversold we are.

Everything can be measured on a scale of overbought/oversold, just as the temperature of now can be measured relative to the season and the other factors.

This scale of "where we should be" varies according to factors such as:
1) day of the week
2) time of the day
3) month of the year
4) day of the year (days before holidays, etc.).
5) politics
6) finance
7) raw resources
...but most of all 8) where price was in the past (and this is a summary of all of the above, and more)

All these factors and more are telling me where price should be. Then I look at where it is, and come up with a trade. And I am doing this assessment once a day, so it's not like I'll come up with several trades in opposite directions. Most likely I will come up with just one trade, to last several hours or days.

What is very important though is to study price and where it's been in the past, something that I've only done in the past as far as the ongoing day and not methodically. This thorough research is as in-depth as I can afford, given limited time and continuously changing markets. All I can afford is to look carefully at the 16 charts on a daily candles timeframe. But this is much better than doing more and doing it incompletely.

Having 16 markets and keeping track of them with a consistent and coherent method is better than looking here and there, and even spend more time on one market than I spend on 16. Because you see, the point is that I am multiplying my opportunities by 16, and I am multiplying my opportunities for every day I monitor them.

So the key here is the speed in monitoring these markets and thoroughness. I am as thorough as I need to be, and use the rest of the time, to monitor as many markets as possible and as frequently as possible. Even here, the frequency, I can only manage to do it twice a day. So I'll settle for that.

So, once again, the key advantages of this technical analysis on many markets that I've implemented with index.html are:

1) opportunities are multiplied by the number of markets I am monitoring
2) opportunities are multiplied by the frequency of monitoring

This is the key to everything. Look from high up above (daily charts), look frequently, look in many places, and spot the opportunity.

Of course, it'd be perfect to automate all this, but it is impossible as far as my programming skills are concerned. Yet the automation and statistics I've already done are now helping me in my discretionary trading.
 
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Wow, wow, wow... I brushed up on my html and this looks excellent:
View attachment index.html

Now, this is final. I am not going to add any other fancy html code. Now I deserve some profit.

And I guess that after all this work, I will have to update it at least once a day. So, that's 16 opportunities at the very least, multiplied by the times I check the markets. So I update it once a day, but I check several times, so, dude, that's a lot of opportunities... and money coming my way! I can't wait!
 
Back at the office. Well, if the markets needed to do something to reinforce my preparatory work, they did it. ZW went exactly where I hoped it would go, and I almost had the temptation to close it early, but all I did was raise the stoploss below today's low. When I woke up and checked it was already at +1.5%.

Other than this, there are no other discretionary trades open. Well, anyway, my index.html says it all (cfr. previous post). I don't need to modify it more than once a day.

...

Only problem maybe that the anchors on the html only work on IE, which I am trying to solve:
html - Anchor tag not working in firefox and chrome - Stack Overflow

... Yeah, forget about it. It was on internet explorer and that's all that matters. I am doing it for myself, and then sharing it here. It's not like I created this index.html for customers. Oh, by the way, disclaimer: trade my ideas at your own risk, as they say.

I'll add this to the file, just in case:
Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice.

I did it again, and once again I've surpassed myself:
View attachment index.html

...

Right now my capital is above 18k. Finally. Finally I feel like somebody. This is really some achievement. I've started with 4k in September, and four months later, I have more than 18k, without counting the withdrawals to pay for the server. I think we can officially say that I am a profitable trader. Then again, I've done this several times before and each time I brought it back to zero. So, let's postpone it until I reach 31k, which was my previous record, and let's postpone it until we don't see any swings in my equity line, like the ones we've seen recently, when I went from 18k to 12k, which is a 50% loss.

On the other hand, I guess that according to this rationale even jesse livermore could not say that he was ever profitable, because he went back to zero throughout his life. You can only really say it once you quit trading.

...

I have once again outdone myself, as now ZW is approaching my LMT exit order at 779. Something tells me that today I will reach 19k of capital. Such is the nature of trading, where all the dissatisfaction/satisfaction comes at once. Indeed, when you're right, you make money and you feel like god, whereas when you're wrong, you lose money and you feel like a complete failure. All within the span of a few hours, sometimes minutes.
 
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anchors fixed!

Wow, awesome. Thanks to Jim Rider, the user who gave the right answer (answer number 3):
User Jim Rider - Stack Overflow

I have solved the anchor question:
html - Anchor tag not working in firefox and chrome - Stack Overflow

Now the file works perfectly on all browsers:
View attachment index.html

The only thing that sucks when you work so hard and well, at gathering all these profitable opportunities, is that you are bound to miss some. Out of prudence, I did nothing on JPY, and it rose as expected (missed out on a profit of 500 dollars, because I thought it could fall more).

Not just the JPY, but also GBL rose, as expected.

The list of called and yet missed opportunities is long, but what should matter to me is that the one trade that I made is profitable.

Furthermore, now that I am at the start, I have to play it safely. Later I will know exactly how far I can push my luck. Also once I fine-tune my stoploss size.

Let's also try to remind myself that there are opportunities every day and several times a day.
 
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Ok, back at home. Just as it is usually me, who loses money made by the systems, today it's the systems which are losing money made by me, so, instead of the expected 19k, I am at 17k. I don't feel like **** because I know they will give it back to me.
 
There, I updated it again and now it's even better:
View attachment index.html

In the meanwhile my two called and yet missed trades are flying: NG went from 3.1 to 3.4 and JPY gained 70 ticks from this morning. 4000 dollars in missed profits. I officially suck for missing those trades, but when you have little capital, it is not easy to press the button.

I went from it being too easy to missing opportunities out of prudence.

Now wouldn't it be nice if I jumped into revenge trading to make the 4000 dollars of profit missed on JPY and NG, and lost 4000 dollars as a consequence? I feel exactly like making it all back, but guess what? I am going to have to sit tight if I want this huge amount of work to amount to anything.

So I am just going to sit tight and pray, for the ongoing trades to be successful.

Mantovani - Ave Maria (((stereo))) - YouTube
 
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Updated my index.html with some changes at the top ("remember" section):
View attachment index.html

Other than these few minor aesthetic changes, I didn't touch the analysis of the markets, because the analysis is the same. Some trades are still ongoing according to my analysis, but my analysis didn't change. The good thing about this is that I really only have to do my analysis once a week and otherwise I just have to monitor.

This morning I closed my JPY trade and I made about a thousand on it, and now capital is at 18k (yesterday the systems lost 500 dollars or more, while I made money). At this point, I just have to try not to let it get it to my head, because with this new thoughtful think-ahead methodology, I haven't lost money yet.

...

Today I am celebrating that "my journal 2" made it to number one of the journals ordered by views (as it is by posts, too):

Snap1.jpg
 
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Very amusing conspiracy theorists at work:
Orly Taitz, AIPAC Zionist Agendas & Obama
...Taitz vehemently opposes this theory because it would invalidate her movement to prove Obama is of foreign birth. Since Davis was a US citizen, Obama’s birth certificate would not be as big of an issue, but rather a distractionary tool to keep the conspiracy theorists redirected from the fact that the Obama administration marks a successful plot to put a Communist in the White House...
The in-fighting among conspiracy theorists is hilarious. There's these two groups: the birthers who accuse obama of being born in kenya, and the "real-fatherers" who accuse obama of having lied about his father. The two versions totally conflict with one another and cannot co-exist. So now the birthers accuse the others of being disinfo agents trying to discredit their battle, and viceversa. Personally I believe “Dreams of my Real Father”, the documentary film by Joel Gilbert, puts it all together very neatly and logically, so I would have to agree with him that the certificate is indeed fake, but not because he was born in Kenya. It is fake because of the lie about his real father.
 
GBL is free money

GBL is interesting. It is now at 143. If it ever gets to 144, there is no way it will stay that high for longer than a couple of weeks. So basically you can start going short on it, as soon as it exceeds 144. Then can go short even more if it goes higher. It's like free money. That is why I classified it as opportunity #1 in my index.html.

You see, once it is above 143, you just buy it, and if it goes against you hold it until it comes back and reaches 142, so you have mathematically made 1000 euros. The only problem is that it could go to 146 for a few days, in which case you'd need to withstand a temporary ongoing loss of 3000 euros plus the overnight margin required, so, given that I don't have that 6000 euros right now, I will wait until it reaches 144, before going short on it.
 
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rules for living

You know, after all this time dedicated to my rules for trading and trading systems, I was in the bathroom pissing and I came up with a set of rules for living, which is excellent.

Minimize contact with people who are (in a descending order of damage produced by them):
1) mean
2) dishonest
3) stupid
4) disorderly
5) impolite

This pretty much leaves out 95% of the population. What is interesting that they don't overlap very much. For example, my mom is stupid and disorderly, but she is none of the others. And she causes a lot of damage still. My roommate is not mean nor stupid, but he is all of the others. My father is mean, but he's none of the others. All of them unbearable. The most bearable is my mother, so maybe I should rank stupidity lower. Yeah, new one:

Minimize contact with people who are (in a descending order of damage produced by them):
1) mean
2) dishonest
3) impolite
4) stupid
5) disorderly

Basically the rule is "minimize contact with people unless they're absolutely excellent in all aspects". Of course this doesn't apply to the internet, where the damage is limited, and I could bear to interact with someone who's all these things put together. I will go further: on the internet I could even have a relationship with a US president, or other criminals of the same stature.
 
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Ok, some cosmetic changes once again and no changes in my analysis:
View attachment index.html

...in the meanwhile, I've made some more money on JPY, closed my ZW trade, and... here it is:

Snap1.jpg

This means you know what? It means that I have to stop because it's getting to my head. Today I made 3000 dollars, mostly from my own trading, and now capital is at... 20k.

That's right. I have quintupled my money in 4 and a half months. I think I better stop now because I am losing my balance, emotional balance I mean. So let's stop. But let's sum it up by saying that this index.html methodology has brought me about 5000 dollars so far, and a 100% of wins. So it's definitely... I definitely nailed it. I should simply keep it up and there's no stopping me.

Of course, at a time like this, how could I not notice how the systems are sucking. They have only made 6k in 4 months, instead of the expected 24k, returning only 25% of what they have in the past.

But I am extremely happy because becoming profitable was a challenge to myself, and I think we can say that I am now very close to it. Once again, we cannot say it yet, because it is not the first time that I start with 4k, reach 20 to 30k, and then blow out my account. It has happened like 5 times before.

My best bet once I reach 25k is to enable the GC systems, and let the systems trade for a while. This is when I lose my cool.

She - Charles Aznavour - YouTube

She may be the beauty or the beast
May be the famine or the feast
May turn each day into a heaven or a hell
She may be the mirror of my dreams
The smile reflected in a stream
She may not be what she may seem inside her shell
"She" is my next trade.

Actually I'll enable the gold systems right away, because I know myself: I am so excited that I'll simply proceed to lose whatever money makes me excited. I'd probably stop being excited if I lose 3000 dollars, so I'd manage to find a way to lose that 3000. So screw this. I am enabling the gold systems, and not touching anything for a couple of weeks.

...

There, 30 systems enabled. Four GC systems, plus the previous 26 systems that I was already trading.

Red Hot Chili Peppers - Can't Stop (Video) - YouTube

...

Tonight my uncle will come back for dinner, and I will overwhelm him with the good news, given that yesterday I showed him my trading, and the day was unprofitable (due to the systems), but today...

Snap2.jpg

YES YES YES!!!
 
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Ok, today I've got my 30 systems enabled and for a few days I won't do analysis or discretionary trading, because I am so excited that I'd give all my money back right away.

Capital is above 20k.

First night that I slept badly, in weeks, and definitely due to trading.

It's always been like his. A larger capital makes me sleep less, or even sleepless. Then I proceed to lose it, in order to bring things back to normal and be able to sleep. Now I understand better all the conspiracies, and these elite who plot against the world in order to preserve their capital and power.

I mean, if I don't sleep with just 20k invested, these guys who have billions obviously need to be constantly plotting to protect what they have.

...

I'll need to find some activities for the next few days, or I already know that I'll blow out my account.

This is the mechanism. Things are just perfect, like now:

Snap1.jpg

(surpassed 20k during the night, not showing yet)

Then I lose 20 dollars on a trade, I get mad, because I had thought I was god, and then I engage in some denial and revenge trading, and then I double up contracts several times, on the losing position, until I lose everything within the span of a week.

And then the awesome equity line above will turn into this typical equity line of my past:

2008-2009.jpg

Do you see the first rise and decline? It was exactly like this time. I had started with about 3500 dollars, brought it to 24k in about 3 to 4 months, then a system incurred a loss on the GBP, for 300 dollars. It was August 2008. I doubled up, because I wanted to make it back. It didn't work (the position was long and GBP fell for one straight month isntead) and I doubled up again. Then I left for my vacation and left everything open. When I came back, instead of 24k I had 5k.

So this is the time to step back and let my systems trade, until I calm down.

idea2develop
 
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It's funny how when you have 2k, going to 4k seems a lot. But then when you have 20k, you see yourself in an entirely different league, and see what separates you from 1 million and feel desperate.

I am sure when (and if) I'll have a million, I'll still have holes in my socks from saving, because I'll feel desperate that I don't have 10 millions. The fact is that I still have holes in my socks and underwear, because even now that I could buy it, I feel that I have to leave as much as capital as possible on the account, so to compound faster. I'll probably feel that I can spend it... when the expense amounts to... 20 dollars of now... so that would be 1/1000th or 0.1%, of the account.

So, to buy new socks, underwear and shirts, which is about 400 dollars in total, I would need a capital of 400,000.

Maybe now I could even spend 60 dollars without too much pain. Make it 100 at the most. So I need the expense to be at the most 0.5% of the account. So, to spend 400, I would need 80,000 dollars. Otherwise it feels like I am doing something wrong.

That's why I'm in such a rush to compound my account, because yes, if i suddenly fell back to 4k, I'd regret not buying new underwear. But until then, I don't see trading as a monthly wage of several thousand dollars, as in fact it has been, but I see rather as a function of compounding - because my objective is not to have extra money, which is what I'd have already achieved. My objective is quit my job, and to do that, I need at least 500k.

If instead this were about having some extra money, I'd be spending right now, restaurant, underwear, socks and shirts, because I can afford them.

The problem is that the objective is another one, and I'd be postponing it by eroding my capital.
 
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Hi Travis,
Congrats on hitting the 20k.
Can you go into details about how you set up and initiated the new GC systems?
 
Thanks.

Yes, first of all, regarding the gold systems, they were created mostly two years ago, more or less, so they're just newly enabled, because I was waiting to reach the capital needed to use them.

The systems I'll be trading are the following ones, with year and month of creation next to it:

GC_ID_02 (200910)
GC_ID_04 (201105)
GC_ID_05 (201105)
GC_ID_06 (201105)

As the code says, they're all intraday, so they do not carry positions into overnight trading.

They fall into these four categories:

GC_ID_02 Volat.Breakout
GC_ID_04 Volat.Breakout
GC_ID_05 WITH ID trend
GC_ID_06 WeekDay Bias

Volatility breakout: a given rise will make the system go long until a given time, when rises end (the end of the day).
WITH ID trend: it goes with the trend at a given time of the day and stays until the end of the day.
WeekDay Bias: on given days of the week gold (and other futures) go in certain directions.

% of wins and sharpe ratio in the forward-tested period:

GC_ID_02 51% 1.4
GC_ID_04 62% 4.5
GC_ID_05 55% 5.0
GC_ID_06 49% 2.1

Profit factor in the forward-tested period:

GC_ID_02 1.3
GC_ID_04 2.1
GC_ID_05 2.2
GC_ID_06 1.5
 
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