my journal 3

ALEX JONES vs PIERS MORGAN - YouTube

holy ****, alex jones has come a long way and he's pretty good at debating - or rather at attacking and monopolizing the conversation - for sure he won't get invited back, given that he blew him away - I would not have been that aggressive, but alex definitely seems in good faith, not a government agent like many suspect

Another remark I have is this... you know how he asked... at minute 12: "who do you believe is behind 911?"? This asshole piers morgan has a habit of asking their conspiracy theorists guests (cfr. video below with jesse ventura) if they believe that bush is behind 911, in a direct way, and for some reason they always back down - probably because saying that on CNN would cause their own death. It's pretty cowardly of him, because it's like siding WITH the entire criminal government against his guest. It's like asking his guest if he wants to die basically. And both alex jones and jesse ventura clearly copped out, and decided against their own death, by not stating clearly and directly that the government is behind 911 (then in case it's too easy to say "government", he asks "is bush behind 911?"). Pretty lame tactics. Of course anyone working for cnn is lame by definition.

Minute 22: "are you saying cheney knew...?":

Minute 33: "are you saying obama is a cia agent...?"

Jesse Ventura on CNN w/ Piers Morgan 04/04/11 ( full interview ) - YouTube

It's like an ambush each time. When he can't convince the audience with his points, because he has none, he keeps first interrupting the guest endlessly, "alex... alex... alex..." and "jesse... jesse... jesse...". Then at the end, when he didn't succeed at anything, he asks them the big question: are you saying bush did 911? Are you saying cheney was complicit? Are you saying obama was a cia agent? And of course no one wants to die, so they can't say "yes, I am saying it". Cowardly ambushing asshole.

Good thing that at least before going down alex jones managed to tell him some of the things that he thinks about him.
 
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discretionary trading update

Yesterday I had GBL, QG, ZW open.

ZW went into profit and I was expecting it to continue, but given that today it didn't behave as expected (it lost yesterday's gain), I closed it for a loss of one tick.

GBL, I closed with a few hundreds of gain, because today is not an up-day for GBL and because it didn't look good.

QG is still open. If it falls lower, I'll buy the NG contract.

I am very satisfied of this new method of discretionary trading, long term planning and partly based on fundamental analysis.

For one thing, there's much less stress. Secondly, I didn't lose money, and the risk is much more limited. But avoiding wild swings in my equity line at the same time doesn't prevent me from making money with this method, which is not the case with intraday trading, meaning impromptu trades.

So, it's all advantages. Less screen time. More money. Less stress. It's perfect.

Ok, with these trades, I made little money, but at one time yesterday I was making 700 dollars, and yes, today I closed them with much less profit, but they've shown their potential. They just didn't go as well as I expected them. I am totally satisfied.

...

What is there to regret? Yes, of course I wish my trades had made 2000 dollars instead of 200. But when you do long term planning and weigh your decisions carefully, you realize that your only way to further improve things is to know the future, so your conscience is clean. With impromptu trades instead, you are aware that your losses are often produced by a lack of thinking and a hyperactivity. With impromptu trading aka compulsive gambling, it was not really a choice that you made, but it was rather a compulsive act that you have trouble explaining. It is like scratching your head. You felt like doing it, but you practically do not remember the moment when you made the choice. Your brain is not connected to your hands, but rather your subconscious is. With these decisions, I clearly remember the moment when I decided to do what I did, by opening them and closing them. I am very satisfied. I hope to continue like this.

...

Today there is no good action in sight on any market.

The currencies aren't interesting, because JPY is already too high, and EUR is not low enough yet.

The energies aren't low enough, nor are the stock indices.

The grains have failed to do that big rise I was expecting, or so it seems right now.

Bonds have risen but no big rise, and right now they're not low enough to be bought nor high enough to be sold.

So no trading for today. And if I did trade with a situation like this, it'd be the type where your hand is not connected to your brain, aka impromptu trading, aka compulsive gambling, aka overtrading.

...

In the meanwhile, the systems haven't been doing any relevant trades, so about break-even.
 
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Today I slept well. I will leave the office at 14.30 as I've been doing since 2013 (new part-time schedule), then i will go to the japanese restaurant, then the movies.... I have discovered how to relax a little more.

For the loud mother ****ing neighbors, the solution is that I am sleeping upstairs, I don't know what you call it. There's another room, usually people use their rooms for storage. Well, I am not bothered by storage rooms: boxes and furniture aren't loud. So I am sleeping there.

For the unpleasant colleagues, a similar solution: I am not here. By not being here I can handle them more effectively, and they're less unpleasant.

By avoiding neighbors and colleagues, I have increased my relaxation.

And relaxation means profitable trading. idea2develop

That's right, because you have to single out the polluting influences on your discretionary trading and get rid of them, one by one. Then, provided you know the markets, and I do, you can only be profitable.

What are these polluting influences?

1) boredom
2) frustration from work
3) compulsive urge to make money
4) sleep deprivation, which makes you less controlled and less inhibited

Solutions, in the same order as above:

1) movies, restaurant, tv
2) less hours with colleagues
3) no solution yet, but a bigger capital answers this urge, so the problem is progressively solved
4) moving to a place where you don't hear neighbors

...

I can't wait to bring my capital to 20k, so I can enable the gold systems, which are quite good. With this new methodology it should be pretty easy to go from 17k to 20k.

In one week, the system make about 1000, especially in this period.

In the same period, I can definitely spot one good opportunity to make 2000. For example, should NG fall below 3.1, or GBL rise above 145, I will go LONG on NG and short on GBL. And one of these two is likely to happen pretty soon. Then there's all the grains, that are heavily oversold. And JPY. When one of these will look like an unmissable opportunity, I will go for it. They all look overstretched if you look at six months with daily candlesticks. But they're still not overstretched on a weekly basis, which is what I need. I need them to be overstretched on all timeframes in the same direction. And then more: I need them to start reversing. Something similar to bungee jumping.
 
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I need to tell you about this colloidal silver I got on ebay. I finally received it after waiting for a month, and I am using it. According to a video by Truther Girls' Sonia, it works on cavities, which I might or might not have, but since it doesn't hurt, I'll use it.

If I went to the dentist, he'd certainly find something worth charging me for, and especially worth drilling me for.

After starting my studies on natural gas fundamentals, going through peak oil, and after going off on a tangent, I have been investigating all these conspiracy theories, including hidden cures and health remedies which I've started using: B17 against cancer, which I might or might not have, but it doesn't hurt, so I'll eat my 4 bitter almonds per day. And now colloidal silver for my teeth. Hemp ("Rick Simpson's Oil") will have to wait until I go to amsterdam. Oh, and I became a raw vegan, once again all thanks to my fundamental analysis of natural gas, which is where I got started. As conspiracy theorists frequently say, I started with so and so "and then I went down the rabbit hole".

Sooner or later I'll also get into all the prepping stuff, such as buying storable food and guns.
 
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The GBL turned out to go up, in the direction in which I said it would go. But I have no regrets, because this morning I consciously made the decision to close it, because it didn't look good and it is a Wednesday. So, just as it wasn't a compulsive entry two days ago, today it wasn't a compulsive exit. So there are no regrets for anything, as instead would be the case with impulse trades.

...

back at home

Goddamn it! The ZW also went back up, exactly where I had said it would go. So both predictions were right, and I got out of both trades. However, having reasoned about it, and having consciously decided that they did not look good, I am totally... I must make myself totally ok with how things evolved. The only way I could have done better is by knowing the future. I am fine. I missed a lot of profit, but I am fine.

Maybe next time I will place a stoploss where the sun don't shine, and keep them trades open. But for this time, there's no point regretting a choice that I have thoroughly weighed.

...

I need to take the whole day off from trading or I'll be engaging in some revenge compulsive trading, out of frustration for the missed profit.
 
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LOL, more evidence on the US government having fun with false flag and media fakery (Sandy Hook)... now it turns out they made a tribute video one month before the shooting took place (in my opinion it never took place):

Sandy Hook Planned: Video Tribute Video Uploaded Weeks Before Massacre - YouTube

cfr. my many previous posts on sandy hook

Check out robbie parker again, at the end of this clip:

Sandy hook elementary school shooting- Remembering the victims [ABC NEWS, transcript,

And check out the real performance from the start:

father ROBBIE PARKER of emilie parker speaks out FULL LENGTH - YouTube

Ah ah ah, he managed to go from laughing to crying in a matter of seconds - excellent performance!

You know, you'd feel like saying: how on earth could they be so bad.

I mean, those who don't dismiss this thing and call us "conspiracy theorists" and instead actually look at this evidence, like I am, can't help saying "how could the government do something so badly performed? Aside from being evil or tricking its citizens, the real question to me is how could the US government do such bad work.

And yet the answer is that the US government has always been this bad and only has had behind it the mass media, from the time of the JKF assassination to the moon landing, which was just as bad as sandy hook in terms of technical errors in the performances:

Moon Landing Hoax - Wires Footage - YouTube

The difference today is that we have VCRs and the internet, so we can double check things and spread information. The US government has always been this bad. Whereas with the moon hoax you needed to be a video professional to find out the truth, and had a hard time spreading it because there was no internet, now intelligent teenagers can do the same work.

I guess the only thing that still surprises me is that Obama went ahead with the whole thing, even knowing from the start, that 5% of the people (us "conspiracy theorists") would have found out the truth within a matter of days.

I wonder... I wonder if the evident weakness of "conspiracy theorists" is decreasing or even increasing. It should be decreasing but I have no idea of the trend. I have no idea how many "awakened" people there are in the world.
 
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My view on today's trading opportunities

See attachment:
View attachment index.html

...

As I post this, what strikes me as odd is the fact that I am so disciplined, methodical and efficient in every aspect of my life, including in eating, and then when it comes to trading, all I would need is to apply the same behavior in order to be consistently profitable, and yet I do not do it.

It could be that this happens because it's easy to be methodical when you have to arrange in order elements that are easily identifiable, such as when you have to choose between smoking and not smoking, or between eating at mcdonald's or eating raw vegan. Or when you have to do the same at the office, where I am very orderly and efficient.

The problem with trading is that a trade could be orderly and disciplined and yet unprofitable. Another trade could be an impulse trade and yet profitable. It's not as easy to reinforce the good behaviors because the good behaviors, like a good trading system, only pay off 66% of the time.

Not only that, but whereas the good behavior is long term planning, and it only pays off 66% of the time (in my case), the bad behavior, which I identify with impulse/impromptu trades, could pay off with an even higher frequency. When you use a martingale method, you could win 90% of the time, and then one time of ten, you run out of capital and cannot add contracts any more, and you blow out your account.

Then, will you remember that you blew out your account or that you win 90% of the time? And with the good methodology, will you remember that it only wins 50% of the time, or that you never lose more than 50 dollars and never blow out your account? That's why it's so hard to reinforce the good behaviors with trading.

idea2develop
 
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I am having a hard time deciding whether to keep going to the Japanese restaurant or not. By going, I might be reinforcing and rewarding my good trading habits (no compulsive gambling), but at the same time, I am losing precious capital.

The funny thing is that when I don't go to the restaurant or save like crazy, I end up making some compulsive trades that make me regret not spending that money at the restaurant, because what happens is that I lose thousands of dollars in just one day.

...

Another thing I was thinking about is how I am noticing that by being careful and conscientious, I am missing a whole lot of opportunities. I've noticed it in the last few days. I must have missed 4 opportunities by being careful. NG is rising today, and yesterday I stayed out because of prudence. Yesterday I missed out on the GBL, for the same reason. Today I will be missing out on JPY, because I bet you that it will rise like crazy in the next few days, and I will not be in the trade, out of prudence. But this is a new feeling, so it might be good. The only way was that I wasn't missing any opportunities and I still didn't make any money, because I also didn't miss the opportunities to lose money.

A great thing I have achieved is creating this index.html, where all it takes is one look. Try and achieve that on TWS. Try opening 20 daily charts, with just one screen, and going from one to the next. You might do it once, but you cannot do it methodically, once a day. So, one step forward, thanks to index.html.
 
I think today is the day that JPY and ZW will start rising big time. I will go long on them with stoplosses. It's going to be an easy trade.

Regarding myself, I will go again to the Japanese restaurant, but I will also buy a shirt, because the ones I have are getting old. But it, too, is part of my program of reinforcing my good trading habits. No point in saving money if you're trading in a way that will blow out your account. No point in saving either if you're trading in a way that will make you 1000 per week. No point in saving either way.

...

Actually I cannot go to the Japanese restaurant, because I think both JPY and especially ZW are going to take off to the upside as soon as the markets open at 15.30 CET. So instead I have to go home and open two long trades on them, with tight stoplosses.

...

Ok, I made it home just in time, and now I am long on both JPY and ZW.
 
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beyond top/bottom picking...

JPY trade gone during the night, but it had a stoploss on. So I am celebrating the fact that I only lost 400 instead of 2000 or even blowing out my account.

But yesterday I was making 200 on the JPY, so I have been thinking that maybe I should enter these that look very good as long-term trades and then only stay half an hour, because, given that they look good to everyone, I always tend to make a few hundreds right away, but then half of the time they abort. So, maybe it's more profitable to enter them and exit them quickly, regardless of the missed profit.

idea2develop
trade2do

...

Yeah, definitely something to think about, a lower takeprofit.

Indeed, yesterday I started 3 trades: GBL, ZW and JPY. At a time, all three were 200 dollars profitable. But I was aiming for 1000 dollars profit on each, so I didn't close them. Now JPY got closed with a 400 dollars loss. ZW is down 300 dollars. GBL is at breakeven.

I need to learn to classify trades in different categories of quality.

1) trade of the century: shorting GBL at 146 - no stoploss needed
2) trades that are great but need a stoploss
3) trades to be avoided

For the #1 category, I could aim for a much larger profit. But that is extremely rare. For the others, they all look like trades of the century but they aren't. For those, I should be happy with much less, because they turn out to be false reversals and... I don't know what it's called, but they come back before reaching my takeprofit too often. Actually, the best way is to raise my stoploss, so they still have a chance of reaching the original takeprofit.

...

Oops, another 200 euros lost, because the GBL's stoploss got executed. There we go. On GBL and JPY, instead of making 500, I have already lost 600. Now I only have one more to go, the ZW trade.

Once again, I need to differentiate between "trade of the month" and other trades, which are still good, but not as predictable in their direction, so a smaller takeprofit should be used.

For sure, out of all the trades I make, there are some that have huge potential, but the question is how do I identify them so I can only make those trades? I may even be able to identify them, but am I capable of waiting for days and days without making any trades?

I should be skeptical on the trades that look good, knowing that only few of them turn out to go where they seem to be going (in my hopes). Those are still good for quick profits. And they happen several times a week. Then there's that trade that comes along once a month, like GBL at 146, given that it practically cannot go any higher.

It's a very hard job, to have to monitor the markets endlessly without being able to trade most of the time. But I might learn how to do it. The first rule to learn was using the stoploss. And I'm learning it still. The second rule is to finetune the takeprofit, which is related to classifying opportunities.

...

Another thing that keeps popping up in my mind is: what if, after years of top and bottom picking, I started looking at the other side as well? Why not see if I can go with the trend?

Somehow I feel that I am very limited by only being able to make money with contrarian trading or whatever it's called - top and bottom picking. It takes so much patience that I might not have enough for it, and I might benefit from finding opportunities on the opposite side.

I should be able to detect opportunities in every situation, and the only rule should be the stoploss.

Given that I am so prone to looking for tops and bottoms, I might need to train myself to look in the opposite direction. Or it might not even be possible at all, looking at both. I don't know. I'll find out. As long as I use the stoploss, I am safe and I can keep on finding out.

...

Let's review my 16 charts and classify them, one by one:
View attachment index.html

GBL: it looks like a market that wants to go down, and we know we're very close to the top. Should we wait until we reach the top again, maybe in 5 years, or should we find a way to go with the trend? Both, hopefully.

ZN: same as above. They both look like a good short opportunity, best if taken from the top. But also good everywhere else. Of course should they get too oversold, they'd become a good long opportunity.

AUD: good short opportunity. Best to seize the opportunity by looking at hourly candles.

CAD: This, too, looks better as a short opportunity. Same I said about using the hourly chart.

CHF: This looks more bullish.

EUR: also looks bullish.

GBP: Looks very volatile. Very good in both directions. Also, doesn't seem to change its mind a lot. Days are either all day up, or all day down. So, very easy to trade in theory. If you're awake early enough.

JPY: and now that I look at it from this perspective, I realize this looks more bearish than every other chart, and yet I've been looking for a long opportunity. Pretty amazing.

NG: This, too, looks short, but we know how close it is to the bottom. Yet there's more to make on the short side up to now. But we don't know if it will last.

CL: This one goes down much faster than it goes up, so I'd classify it as a good short opportunity.

ZC: It looks like a good short, but we should be aware of how much it can fall, even though I am not knowledgeable of fundamental analysis on this.

ZS: more down than up

ZW: this looks almost too easy to trade on the short side, as it goes down for several weeks in a row. And obviously I have been looking for LONG opportunities. I really have to change my anticonformism, when it comes to trading.

NQ: Right now this looks better as a short opportunity.

GC: Although we're talking about gold, and everyone in the truther community, says you should buy gold... this, too, looks better on the short side.

HG: This one just looks very dangerous and unpredictable, also because it has big unexpected candles in either direction. However, this, too, is one that doesn't seem to change its mind. Either all day up or all day down.

...

But this is not good enough. Will I check all these charts every day or even several times a day, as it would be needed?

So, maybe a solution would be to write these notes on the bottom of the charts, so at least, what I have learned, i will keep, without having to analyse them all over again each time I open them.

Another problem is that all my theories, no matter how sound, disappear as soon as I incur a loss. And this doesn't make any sense, but our mind is not like a statistical table, and it only remembers the last event, or similar.

Anyway, more on the next post, because this one is getting too long.
 
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So here's my work, from the previous post:
View attachment index.html

I have integrated the comments within the index.html page, so I can build on previous thoughts instead of starting from scratch each time. What I did learn is that to catch a move, you first have to be familiar with the commodity.

This may lead to nothing, but if it leads to anything, it is profit, so even if there is a small chance it will lead to profit, it's worth trying. Because profit is everything.

...

The more time goes by, the more I feel like a failure, the more grows my anger and desire to quit my job. But my discretionary trading still isn't profitable.

Maybe my desire is not strong enough, or maybe strong desire is not enough to do the right things, or even a strong desire might interfere with your profitability.

We will see. For sure I know all the pieces of the puzzle or at least enough of them to be profitable. But I still don't know how to put them together.

One good start certainly would be to learn to use the stoploss. A bad stoploss is better than no stoploss. A stoploss that prevents you from making money and causes you a loss, is better than not using a stoploss and making money as a consequence. That much I have learned. And this should protect my account.
 
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Good news. Remember how I said that GBL trade's stoploss got executed? I was wrong, the stoploss for some reason was not taken and... actually I have no idea why my stoploss wasn't taken. Maybe without realizing it, I placed it one whole point lower. But also, thanks to lowering my takeprofit, I actually made money today. Because had i kept the previous one in place, it would not have been taken. So I now believe that it is ok to move your takeprofits and stoplosses. Funny how just the last trade reinforces behaviors which I deemed wrong just a week ago, when because of moving these levels, I missed a lot of profit (on GBL). I must be aware of this big problem of my mind not reasoning in statistical terms.

Anyway. Then, thanks to studying the markets, I also seized an opportunity on the JPY which had fallen too much, and I made a quick 500 dollars on it. Pretty staggering how I right I was on that one.

However, conversely, my wheat ZW trade just ended in a stoploss. So, capital is at about 17k, as usual.

I think I will bring my table from upstairs, because I'll need some studying in the future. And so far I've been trading from my laptop while lying in bed, because the other table is taken by two computers and a scanner. I think that if I trade while sitting at a desk, I might take it more seriously.
 
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Just got this from facebook:

317951_428178787251414_1277231070_n.JPG

Initially I really liked it, because I like statistics, and I am a "conspiracy theorist", one who knows the truth and says it, despite being against the mainstream media and mainstream opinion.

At the same time, I also wonder what would happen if the majority of american idiots woke up. Yes, because even if they wake up, they're still idiots, because they weren't awake due to this precise fact. So how do idiots act? They're going to get in a mob and rebel, or kill some bankers... it won't necessarily end better than it is now. Maybe there'll be a rebellion that will destroy the US, and the Chinese will take over the world, which is much worse than what we have now.

Or the arabs will take over the world.

What I am saying is that I like speaking the truth for the hell of it, but I don't really know if it's a good idea to wake up these idiots around me. I just tell them, because I enjoy saying the truth, also to think things through, you know - thinking out loud.

Maybe we should wake up people, but only those at the top. Those at the bottom will follow as usual, and they won't notice a thing. What I am saying is that I've got my father who's a politician and I've been working on waking him up for years. Hmm... if he did wake up and spoke out, he might actually get killed. So, even in this case, I don't know if it's a good thing to wake anyone up. I think we should work on a boycott. Such as focus on one product not to buy and that's it. Like... coca cola is bad, so let's not drink it. It's much easier than to tell the truth about everything, and have it rejected as a whole, and then be called "conspiracy theorist".

As they did with smoking. We could do with every other harmful corporation, one at a time. I would not want a crowd of idiots to go against the government and do more damage than good. I'd say, ok, wake two people up, but only focus on waking up the smarter people, the non-violent ones, and so on. Wake up civilized intelligent people. We don't want a french revolution all over again, with people hanging the bankers as they were beheading the nobles two centuries ago.
 
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Damn it, what a goddamn cocksucker that I am!

There was some news on ZW and I closed it just before it leaped some 40 points from its low, where my stoploss got taken. I suck!

I went back in, short this time, and made all the loss back, but I could have made a thousand, had I simply stayed in this trade.

Let's find out what the news was...

Forex Economic Calendar @ DailyFX

Nope, no expected news that I could find out about.

Nope, checked everywhere, and no one is saying anything about any news yet. Let alone in advance. Well, I guess I was lucky to make my loss back.

Next time, I'll lower my stoploss just two points lower, so if anything unexpected happens... Just kidding. There was no way to have known, and I should be proud to have actually allowed my stoploss to be triggered, despite losing 1000 dollars because of it.

idea2develop
trade2do

Just made another 200 on it, this time by going long! Yay! You must know your way around, knowing where price should be and when it is oversold or overbought. That's all it takes... or at least it seemed to me. Well, I am happy!!!

Now I must leave or I'll gamble it all away. My brain is screaming with joy, and... I don't know, it doesn't feel like I've smoked pot. It's more like I've been in a fight, which I rarely have (and never punched anyone)... but it's close to that feeling. Not good. But if what it takes to make money, let us get into more fights like this with the market.

It doesn't take this crap to make money. However, what am I saying... it's not crap. Both ways (overnight and the despised intraday) came from knowing where we are and where we should be and how much we've been falling and how much we've been rising, so I guess doing my homework paid off. The difference is also that it all happened very very fast, and due to the excitement and euphoria now I won't be able to trade for the rest of the day. Because I would not be objective at all.

You know, the rythm of the market can make the difference between being profitable and not. If you witness the same exact pattern but slowed down by half speed, you might get out and lose money. If it happens so fast that you have no time to fear or get bored, things are totally different. And yet the chart pattern is the same. Food for thought.
 
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I am above 17k of capital.

I wonder how the systems did this week. I suspect they just about broke even. Because I made a little with discretionary trading. And I am just a little bit above last week. So probably the systems made nothing.

I will know in 10 minutes.

...

Here's the situation:

-812
2,406
4,621
43
752
923
-2,377
-3,666
1,502
-901
1,053
1,462
1,601
1,829
-2,577
-1,069
-572
263
964
1,264
-133

I was right. So good to be right. Anyway, the systems are still sucking as usual. I am really expecting some real money next week.

The systems have made about 6500 dollars in this period, and I have made the other 7k. Having started at 4k... plus 6k, equal 10k, then I made 7k.

They should have made 6k per month, so we'd have to be at 24k of profit right now instead of 6k. They performed only 25% of what I was hoping for, judging by the past.

At least I am learning to trade discretionary.

Had I had to live, for 4 months, with a profit of 1.5k per month, I would have blown out the account out of boredom. It is a miracle that I didn't, and instead made even more money than the systems.

Let's hope to reach 20k by the end of next week so I can finally relax a little and enable the gold systems.
 
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discretionary trading update

Wow, this is looking neater and neater:
View attachment 153234

I hope I can make a habit of studying these 16 charts at least once a week.

If I do, I will be deluged with opportunities. Because... like yesterday, I made about 1000 dollars on the JPY, just because I knew how oversold it was, and where it was supposed to be, and a similar situation happened on ZW.
 
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