May '04 Forex
- Thread starter Newtron Bomb
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Not totally sure about having a short on the Euro at the moment. As FC said, 2028-2030 will obviously be important but my feelings are for upward action now. Lower lows and higher highs on 60 min chart suggest an upward pattern. I get around 2020 as fib support on the 30 min chart.
Conflicting ideas then, makes things interesting!
Anyone else have a definite bias?
Ben
Conflicting ideas then, makes things interesting!
Anyone else have a definite bias?
Ben
Goober said:
Morning,
I can confirm the results from yesterday using the 7-10 BO on the major 4 currencies pairs.
cable -9 (vol 77)
Eur 46 (vol <60)
CHF 53 (vol <60)
JPY 30 (vol 65)
Total per day 122
Now the question is: Because we report to $ in all four pairs, if the $ goes against you you will loose on all 4 pairs (DD 240 on 60pips stop)? Has anyone experienced something like that?
I will to use this system on testing and monitor the effect of volatility.
Curently on paper money only. I'm new to this kind of business :
Swissy long activated at 1.2885.
ivorm
Earlier I asked TW if he was trading live or on paper because his net profit of 123 pips was based on trading four pairs, which translates to a potential DD for the day of 240 pips.
Same question to you really.
ivorm
Earlier I asked TW if he was trading live or on paper because his net profit of 123 pips was based on trading four pairs, which translates to a potential DD for the day of 240 pips.
Same question to you really.
The Wanderer
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Hi Goober.
At present only trading 1am - 8 am system on Capital Spreads virtual money account.
Have only done so since beginning of this week and I will post results each weekend unless somebody beats me to it.Results look good so far-Cable has had 3 losers and only 1 winner but 27 pips up overall thanks to 149 profit on Tuesday.This was the only day when gap was below 60-on the losing days it was 64,66 and 64 respectively so looks like 60 day filter could be a smart move!!Today gap is 77 so perhaps another loser but I've put the trade on just to see result as only virtual money at this stage.
You are of course quite correct re potential drawdown of 240 per day but in my experience seems rare for all 4 to bomb out on same day.When I trade for real I try to limit loss on any 1 trade to 1% of my trading pot so @ £1 per point trading account should be £6000.Of course it's sods law that as soon as I trade with live account 4 losers per day will be the norm!!
At present only trading 1am - 8 am system on Capital Spreads virtual money account.
Have only done so since beginning of this week and I will post results each weekend unless somebody beats me to it.Results look good so far-Cable has had 3 losers and only 1 winner but 27 pips up overall thanks to 149 profit on Tuesday.This was the only day when gap was below 60-on the losing days it was 64,66 and 64 respectively so looks like 60 day filter could be a smart move!!Today gap is 77 so perhaps another loser but I've put the trade on just to see result as only virtual money at this stage.
You are of course quite correct re potential drawdown of 240 per day but in my experience seems rare for all 4 to bomb out on same day.When I trade for real I try to limit loss on any 1 trade to 1% of my trading pot so @ £1 per point trading account should be £6000.Of course it's sods law that as soon as I trade with live account 4 losers per day will be the norm!!
Goober said:
I'm trading live but small (£1/pip). Also, remember on the 7-10 system, the stoploss is 35 pips, not 60 and so my potential DD is 70 pips (I'm only trading EUR & CHF).
I've only traded both currencies for two days. . The interesting thing is that on the first day, I had a loss on the CHF, but it was partially offset by a win on the EUR - result was net -16. (The second day resulted in the EUR & CHF both finishing well up).
Anyways, both my long on EUR and short on CHF have now been triggered - so let's see what happens today !!
Regards,
TW and ivorm
Thanks for your replies.
My interest pertains to risk management, which you have both explained with absolute clarity. My risk management strategy determines that I do not have sufficient margin to trade more than two pairs on any given day.
TW
I take your point on spreading the risk over four pairs, however, Mr Sod will, no doubt, want to prove you wrong.
ivorm
As you say, your exposure is reduced to a maximum of 70 pips as you only trade two pairs with a 35 pip SL per pair.
It is encouraging to see the number of traders looking at FX. Thanks to T2W members, such as Newtron Bomb, Jonny T and the recently rehomed Fettered Chinos for stimulating such interest and successful trading to all.
Thanks for your replies.
My interest pertains to risk management, which you have both explained with absolute clarity. My risk management strategy determines that I do not have sufficient margin to trade more than two pairs on any given day.
TW
I take your point on spreading the risk over four pairs, however, Mr Sod will, no doubt, want to prove you wrong.
ivorm
As you say, your exposure is reduced to a maximum of 70 pips as you only trade two pairs with a 35 pip SL per pair.
It is encouraging to see the number of traders looking at FX. Thanks to T2W members, such as Newtron Bomb, Jonny T and the recently rehomed Fettered Chinos for stimulating such interest and successful trading to all.
FetteredChinos
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morning groovers, just popping in for a quickie.
long triggered on Euro at 1.2072. currently down, but i have a feeling we may have a dead market until D-Day at 1.30 when all hell could break loose.
just a thought for you guys trading eurodollarisation and swissy.
bascially these are the same trade, but one inverted with the other. swissy is virtually a proxy for the euro. so a successful long on the euro is the same as a successful short on the Helvetican.
in terms of risk management, i wouldnt trade both of them, as if one goes wrong, then the other is likely to too? at the moment, im giving cable a rest, and concentrating on the Euro alone.
have looked into trading with daftly tight stops. eg 15 points. results in a nice profit factor according to limited backtesting.
had a look at 3rd dawns sheet once more. (you know we really should get another sheet set up for other contracts....)
trying a breakout from 7-11 am, with a 15pt stop, and a 15pt trigger really seems to work. nice smooth equity curve, which is what we are all after
FC
long triggered on Euro at 1.2072. currently down, but i have a feeling we may have a dead market until D-Day at 1.30 when all hell could break loose.
just a thought for you guys trading eurodollarisation and swissy.
bascially these are the same trade, but one inverted with the other. swissy is virtually a proxy for the euro. so a successful long on the euro is the same as a successful short on the Helvetican.
in terms of risk management, i wouldnt trade both of them, as if one goes wrong, then the other is likely to too? at the moment, im giving cable a rest, and concentrating on the Euro alone.
have looked into trading with daftly tight stops. eg 15 points. results in a nice profit factor according to limited backtesting.
had a look at 3rd dawns sheet once more. (you know we really should get another sheet set up for other contracts....)
trying a breakout from 7-11 am, with a 15pt stop, and a 15pt trigger really seems to work. nice smooth equity curve, which is what we are all after
FC
FetteredChinos said:morning groovers, just popping in for a quickie.
long triggered on Euro at 1.2072. currently down, but i have a feeling we may have a dead market until D-Day at 1.30 when all hell could break loose.
just a thought for you guys trading eurodollarisation and swissy.
bascially these are the same trade, but one inverted with the other. swissy is virtually a proxy for the euro. so a successful long on the euro is the same as a successful short on the Helvetican.
in terms of risk management, i wouldnt trade both of them, as if one goes wrong, then the other is likely to too? at the moment, im giving cable a rest, and concentrating on the Euro alone.
:-0
I have to agree with FC ,i'm not really sure what the benefit is of trading 2-3 pairs ,the original system by Jonny T was for the euro only ,i would be interested to here other views on this ,
FetteredChinos
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ok guys, how about a bit of a "wager" for a bit of fun while we wait.
place your bets now on the direction that the US data will take us. im now voting UP, having seen the action this morning. anyone else?
FC
place your bets now on the direction that the US data will take us. im now voting UP, having seen the action this morning. anyone else?
FC
I certainly hope up )
Trading the Swissy and EUR is madness as they are inverted copies give or take a few pips.
If you are SBing I would go with the Swissy as it moves a little more in real terms, however the Swissy future is inverted and not worth trading so I stick to the EUR/USD
JonnyT
)Trading the Swissy and EUR is madness as they are inverted copies give or take a few pips.
If you are SBing I would go with the Swissy as it moves a little more in real terms, however the Swissy future is inverted and not worth trading so I stick to the EUR/USD
JonnyT
FetteredChinos
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lol cheers Ben, was just seeing how people were shaping up.
i have no idea either. and i have a very very nasty feeling that it is going to bugger up all the recent TA patterns, and those usign indicators are gonna find things a bit haywire.
its probably for the best that i am heading out for lunch to meet a mate, otherwise im bound to end up on the wrong end of the move lol!
FC
i have no idea either. and i have a very very nasty feeling that it is going to bugger up all the recent TA patterns, and those usign indicators are gonna find things a bit haywire.
its probably for the best that i am heading out for lunch to meet a mate, otherwise im bound to end up on the wrong end of the move lol!
FC
FetteredChinos said:
I'm not sure about the efficacy of this strategy either.
I guess my thinking is that altough they are 'basically the same trade', nevertheless they differ in terms of volatility, i.e. the CHF seems to move much more than the EUR. I'm not sure of the maths, but it seems to me that this difference in volatility might mean that trading the pair might be more profitable than trading just one.
I know it's a very limited sample :cheesy: but my two days of trading both currencies have resulted in +115. If I had just traded EUR, it would be +79. And if I had just traded CHF, then it would be +36.
Anyone care to do some proper backtesting on this ? Could be interesting.
Regards,
Last edited:
FetteredChinos
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cheers for the input JT. i never looked at comparing the two markets that closely, just reasoned that they would be opposites.
how are the pre-orders for Spot-on coming along? thought of a decent name for it yet?
how are the pre-orders for Spot-on coming along? thought of a decent name for it yet?
