Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday July 23 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3740

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Edging higher but without any impetus and becoming dangerously overbought at levels never seen before for the single currency. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should try to hold above first support at 1.3750 And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. Below 1.3740 means a weekly reversal and the risk of a significant collapse as weak longs who bought too high up begin to bail out.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday July 24 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3740

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change: Edging higher but without any impetus and becoming dangerously overbought at levels never seen before for the single currency. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should try to hold above first support at 1.3750 And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. Below 1.3740 means a weekly reversal and the risk of a significant collapse as weak longs who bought too high up begin to bail out.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[Nabeel]

Hi, This post is very informative, however I would like some specific information. If someone can help me then please send me a private message. Best Regards,

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 25 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3740

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A fractionally new high yesterday, but little change to the picture. Perhaps the news today will tip this one way or the other: Edging higher but without any impetus and becoming dangerously overbought at levels never seen before for the single currency. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should try to hold above first support at 1.3750 And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. Below 1.3740 means a weekly reversal and the risk of a significant collapse as weak longs who bought too high up begin to bail out.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday July 26 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A sudden plunge below the short term trend line was almost inevitable, after days of edging higher without momentum. Now we are testing the longer term trend line (see chart), but we expect that this will eventually give way as well, as the euro corrects towards first key support at 1.3680/60.(Thick red line) As weekly momentum is now bearish, we look to sell into rallies, with first resistance at 1.3780. It is possible to also take counter-trend long positions on clear signs of basing around the above-mentioned key support levels.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3780

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy dips to 1.3660/80 only on clear signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday July 27 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change from yesterday and the strategy remains the same: Now we are testing the longer term trend line (see chart), but we expect that this will eventually give way as well, as the euro corrects towards first key support at 1.3680/60.(Thick red line) As weekly momentum is now bearish, we look to sell into rallies, with first resistance at 1.3780. It is possible to also take counter-trend long positions on clear signs of basing around the above-mentioned key support levels.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3780

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy dips to 1.3660/80 only on clear signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday July 30 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Jul 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jun 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 59.5 59.0 60.2
Jul 31 10:00 Construction Spending Jun -0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 109.0 105.0 103.9
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 56.5 55.5 56.0
Aug 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.5%
Aug 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/27 NA NA -1103K
Aug 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.4M 5.5M 5.2M
Aug 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jul 6.9M 7.0M 6.5M
Aug 02 08:30 Initial Claims 07/28 315K NA 301K
Aug 02 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.5% 1.3% -0.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 150K 135K 132K
Aug 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 03 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.8 33.9 33.9
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul NA 59.5 60.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Plunging towards support at 1.3630 (38.2% of the recent rally), the euro is very oversold and due a bounce. If a medium/long term top is in place at 1.3860 (the jury is still out on that idea) then we still expect a strong bounce to recover 61.8% - 78.6% of last week's fall. There is a good chance for a counter-trend trade at 1.3630, with long positions aimed at 1.3750, and even 1.3800 before new attempts at topping. Watch for rallies to that area this week, looking to sell into reversal signals if/when we get there.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy at 1.3630, target 1.3700/3750.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 1 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Jul 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jun 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 59.5 59.0 60.2
Jul 31 10:00 Construction Spending Jun -0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 109.0 105.0 103.9
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 56.5 55.5 56.0
Aug 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.5%
Aug 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/27 NA NA -1103K
Aug 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.4M 5.5M 5.2M
Aug 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jul 6.9M 7.0M 6.5M
Aug 02 08:30 Initial Claims 07/28 315K NA 301K
Aug 02 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.5% 1.3% -0.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 150K 135K 132K
Aug 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 03 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.8 33.9 33.9
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul NA 59.5 60.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change as the euro dithers above the 1.3600 level, but below resistance at 1.3720. Weekly momentum is bearish, which means we still look to sell into rallies, with 1.3720 now seen as an important intermediate top. (above here and 1.3800 should stop any rallies) Wave analysis suggests we still have another leg lower to go, which might take the euro down to 1.3550/70 (200 SMA, previous S/R and 50% Fib), where counter-trend longs might be a possibility. watch to sell at 1.3720, or to buy near 1.3550, only on clear signs of reversal. Below 1.3550 (unlikely on first attempt) means another drop to 1.3400/20. Watch here for a bounce.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3720, 1.3800

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy at 1.3550

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday August 2 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Jul 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jun 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 59.5 59.0 60.2
Jul 31 10:00 Construction Spending Jun -0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 109.0 105.0 103.9
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 56.5 55.5 56.0
Aug 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.5%
Aug 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/27 NA NA -1103K
Aug 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.4M 5.5M 5.2M
Aug 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jul 6.9M 7.0M 6.5M
Aug 02 08:30 Initial Claims 07/28 315K NA 301K
Aug 02 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.5% 1.3% -0.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 150K 135K 132K
Aug 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 03 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.8 33.9 33.9
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul NA 59.5 60.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change as the euro dithers above the 1.3600 level, but below resistance at 1.3720. Weekly momentum is bearish, which means we still look to sell into rallies, with 1.3720 now seen as an important intermediate top. (above here and 1.3800 should stop any rallies) Wave analysis suggests we still have another leg lower to go, which might take the euro down to 1.3550/70 (200 SMA, previous S/R and 50% Fib), where counter-trend longs might be a possibility. watch to sell at 1.3720, or to buy near 1.3550, only on clear signs of reversal. Below 1.3550 (unlikely on first attempt) means another drop to 1.3400/20. Watch here for a bounce. Patience is required this week, but it will pay off!

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3720, 1.3800

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy at 1.3550

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday August 6 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 2.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Aug 07 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $3.5B $7.0B $12.9B
Aug 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/03 NA NA -6497K
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 08/04 310K NA 307K
Aug 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$35.0B -$32.5B -$33.2B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Up to almost the all time high again at 1.3840, and a little higher than we had allowed for (1.3800) With a bit of luck, we will hold below 1.3850, but we must now allow for another spike through here just to rattle the uncertain. This is not an uncommon pattern, but caution is required as a new rally is certainly not out of the question. For today, whilst below 1.3850, the chance of another sudden drop is quite good and we look to sell into rallies/hold shorts from 1.3850 region, with a first target of 1.3720, and then 1.3620.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3900

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3900/1.3920, stops above 1.3950

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 7 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 2.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Aug 07 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $3.5B $7.0B $12.9B
Aug 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/03 NA NA -6497K
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 08/04 310K NA 307K
Aug 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$35.0B -$32.5B -$33.2B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change as we consolidate below 1.3840. There are signs across the board that a significant dollar rally is possible this week, so our analysis and strategy remains unchanged: With a bit of luck, we will hold below 1.3850, but we must now allow for another spike through here just to rattle the uncertain. This is not an uncommon pattern, but caution is required as a new rally is certainly not out of the question. For today, whilst below 1.3850, the chance of another sudden drop is quite good and we look to sell into rallies/hold shorts from 1.3850 region, with a first target of 1.3720, and then 1.3620.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3900

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3900/1.3920, stops above 1.3950

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday August 9 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 2.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Aug 07 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $3.5B $7.0B $12.9B
Aug 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/03 NA NA -6497K
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 08/04 310K NA 307K
Aug 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$35.0B -$32.5B -$33.2B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We are back above 1.3800, which was slightly unexpected and has clouded the technical picture just a little bit. Still, out model remains bearish, and with a bit of luck, we will hold below 1.3850, but we must now allow for another spike through here just to rattle the uncertain. For today, whilst below 1.3850, the chance of another sudden drop is quite good and we look to sell into rallies/hold shorts from 1.3850 region, with a first target of 1.3720, and then 1.3620.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3900

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3900/1.3920, stops above 1.3950

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday August 13 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) www.forex-science.com

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jul 0.4% 0.2% -0.9%
Aug 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 14 08:30 PPI Jul 0.1% 0.1% -0.2%
Aug 14 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Aug 14 08:30 Trade Balance Jun -$61.0B -$61.0B -$60.0B
Aug 15 08:30 CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Aug 15.0 19.0 26.5
Aug 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jun $126.1B
Aug 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 81.8% 81.8% 81.7%
Aug 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/10 NA NA -4136K
Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 1415K 1410K 1467K
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 1420K 1400K 1413K
Aug 16 08:30 Initial Claims 08/11 310K NA 316K
Aug 16 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 10.0 8.0 9.2
Aug 17 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug 88.0 88.5 90.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3630

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Messy work as we oscillate between 1.3650 and 1.3850, with a lot of volatility and sudden rallies/collapses. The weekly trend direction has marginally reversed to bullish (watch this week's video report to see the caution due to the weekly "piercing pattern") So we look to remain bullish whilst above 1.3630. First target 1.3850, and then the next move to 1.3900/1.4000. It will be very tough to break above 1.3850, so expect a lot of resistance to a new all time high, and a possible failure to do so. Watch for counter-trend opportunities at 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.4000 and 1.4100, because the euro is still due a large corrective decline!

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3650.

Counter-trend opportunities: 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.4000 and 1.4100

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 15 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jul 0.4% 0.2% -0.9%
Aug 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 14 08:30 PPI Jul 0.1% 0.1% -0.2%
Aug 14 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Aug 14 08:30 Trade Balance Jun -$61.0B -$61.0B -$60.0B
Aug 15 08:30 CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Aug 15.0 19.0 26.5
Aug 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jun $126.1B
Aug 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 81.8% 81.8% 81.7%
Aug 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/10 NA NA -4136K
Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 1415K 1410K 1467K
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 1420K 1400K 1413K
Aug 16 08:30 Initial Claims 08/11 310K NA 316K
Aug 16 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 10.0 8.0 9.2
Aug 17 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug 88.0 88.5 90.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3630

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Edging down to 1.3500 and important support. Watch for counter-trend opportunities here. (1.3520 - 1.3480) Bearish momentum means the weekly direction will reverse this week again, so we continue to look to sell into corrective rallies.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3500

Counter-trend opportunities: 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.4000 and 1.4100

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday August 20 2007


This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul NA 0.3% -0.3%
Aug 22 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/17 NA NA -5167K
Aug 23 08:30 Initial Claims 08/18 NA NA 322K
Aug 24 08:30 Durable Orders Jul NA 1.0% 1.4%
Aug 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jul NA 830K 834K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3720

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: After the free-fall last week, and with little economic news this week, the Euro is probably going to take some time out to consolidate and moves will probably be comparatively small. We are waiting for rallies to between 1.3550 and 1.3650 to sell into, and this might take place late today or tomorrow. Until then, do as little as possible. First target for short positions would be 1.3400 and then 1.3300.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3650

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday August 23 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul NA 0.3% -0.3%
Aug 22 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/17 NA NA -5167K
Aug 23 08:30 Initial Claims 08/18 NA NA 322K
Aug 24 08:30 Durable Orders Jul NA 1.0% 1.4%
Aug 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jul NA 830K 834K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3720

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A little bit of a recovery from the lows at 1.3360, and we should reach up to 1.3600/1.3650 before more topping activity later this week. We continue to look to sell into rallies to these areas, with first target for short positions at 1.3400 and then 1.3300. Be sure to wait for clear signs of topping before entering

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3650

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday August 27 2007

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 5.90M 5.70M 5.75M
Aug 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 104.0 105.0 112.6
Aug 28 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 7
Aug 29 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/24 NA NA 1890K
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 4.0% 4.1% 3.4%
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Aug 30 08:30 Initial Claims 08/25 320K 320K 322K
Aug 30 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 25 25 26
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Aug 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Aug 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Aug 56.0 53.0 53.4
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul 3.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Aug 31 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 83.3 83.0 83.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3720

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We have edged up to 1.3680, an important long term resistance level and Fibonacci retracement. We will allow for another fractionally higher rally to 1.3730/50 (the 78.6% Fibonacci level), but hopefully we will hold beneath 1.3700. Weekly momentum remains bearish and the long term outlook is becoming difficult as we approach our medium/long term target levels and the euro becomes increasingly overbought. Targets for the next decline are below 1.3000, but we shall have to take things one week at a time to see how this plays out. For today, hold shorts, sell at 1.3680, stops well above 1.3700, with a first target of 1.3550.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3730

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 29 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 5.90M 5.70M 5.75M
Aug 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 104.0 105.0 112.6
Aug 28 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 7
Aug 29 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/24 NA NA 1890K
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 4.0% 4.1% 3.4%
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Aug 30 08:30 Initial Claims 08/25 320K 320K 322K
Aug 30 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 25 25 26
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Aug 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Aug 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Aug 56.0 53.0 53.4
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul 3.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Aug 31 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 83.3 83.0 83.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3720

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Pulling back to 38% of the recent rally and the 200 hour SMA. This is a good opportunity to try counter-trend longs, however, weekly momentum remains bearish and the long term outlook is becoming difficult as we approach our medium/long term target levels and the euro becomes increasingly overbought. Targets for the next decline are below 1.3000, but we shall have to take things one week at a time to see how this plays out. For today, we prefer to remain sidelined, as we are near month end and prefer to wait for a clear move one way or the other before trading again next week.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3730

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday August 31 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 5.90M 5.70M 5.75M
Aug 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 104.0 105.0 112.6
Aug 28 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 7
Aug 29 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/24 NA NA 1890K
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 4.0% 4.1% 3.4%
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Aug 30 08:30 Initial Claims 08/25 320K 320K 322K
Aug 30 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 25 25 26
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Aug 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Aug 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Aug 56.0 53.0 53.4
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul 3.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Aug 31 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 83.3 83.0 83.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3720

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Holding neatly above 1.3600 yesterday, and it looks as if we might now move higher to retest 1.3750/1.3800. A clear break above 1.3720 means that we resume the longer term bullish trend, and below 1.3550 means that the decline which began last week should continue. A lot now depends on the carry trades which are once again dictating the moves in the Forex market. We prefer to stay out of the market until next week, once a direction has been established. Aggressive traders could try selling at 1.3680/1.3700, with a stop/reverse above 1.3720 for 1.3820.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3730

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday September 06 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 04 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% -0.1% -0.3%
Sep 04 10:00 ISM Index Aug 53.5 53.0 53.8
Sep 04 17:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.1M 5.0M 4.9M
Sep 04 17:00 Truck Sales Aug 6.8M 7.0M 6.7M
Sep 05 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jul 5.0%
Sep 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/31 NA NA -3486K
Sep 05 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Sep 06 08:30 Initial Claims 09/01 320K NA 334K
Sep 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q2 2.5% 2.3% 1.8%
Sep 06 10:00 ISM Services Aug NA 54.5 55.8
Sep 07 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 130K 120K 92K
Sep 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Sep 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sep 07 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.8 33.8 33.8
Sep 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3550

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Bouncing from the 1.3550 zone again, and we have been range trading for almost two weeks. We should break out one way or the other before the weekend (NFP report on Friday) and so far it looks like the bullish side might prevail. Below 1.3550 means a change in direction and the euro could correct significantly towards 1.3350 and possibly lower. Hold longs and target 1.3800 plus.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: