Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday Jun 15 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 12 14:00 Treasury Budget May -$71.0B -$60.0B -$42.9B
Jun 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. May NA NA 0.4%
Jun 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil May NA NA 0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales May 0.7% 0.6% -0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May 1.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Jun 13 10:00 Business Inventories Apr 0.3% 0.2% -0.1%
Jun 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/08 NA NA 112K
Jun 13 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jun 14 08:30 Initial Claims 06/09 315K NA 309K
Jun 14 08:30 PPI May 0.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Jun 14 08:30 Core PPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 15 08:30 Current Account Q1 -$203.0B -$202.5B -$195.8B
Jun 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jun 14.0 10.0 8.0
Jun 15 08:30 CPI May 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Jun 15 08:30 Core CPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jun 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Apr $67.6B
Jun 15 09:15 Industrial Production May 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jun 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 81.5% 81.5% 81.6%
Jun 15 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun 89.0 88.0 88.3

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3570

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Very slow work, but perhaps 1.3280 is going to hold. We need a strong rally today to create a weekly reversal candle, and ideally we will move back up to 1.3380/1.3410 (a strong resistance zone) before the close of play this afternoon. We still won't rule out a final dip to 1.3220, (Observe trend line and Fibonacci support on the weekly chart) and we will be ready to re-buy at these lower levels if seen. If and when we do reach the general zone around 1.3400, we will be watching for opportunities to sell into the rally.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3380, 1.3410

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy between 1.3280 and 1.3220 on signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday Jun 18 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 19 08:30 Housing Starts May 1490K 1485K 1528K
Jun 19 08:30 Building Permits May 1480K 1475K 1457K
Jun 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/15 NA NA 82K
Jun 21 08:30 Initial Claims 06/16 310K 310K 311K
Jun 21 10:00 Leading Indicators May 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%
Jun 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jun 9.0 7.0 4.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3250

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We held above 1.3280 last week, rallying to just below 1.3400, and forming a bullish daily candle and a weekly "doji" candle in the process. This means that we have reversed our weekly direction and now look to buy into dips whilst above 1.3250. We should be able to hold above 1.3330/1.3300 in the event that we do get a small decline, and rallies from there should take the euro to the next band of resistance which lies around 1.3400/1.3450. Slightly longer term, we expect the euro to re-test the 1.3700 level, but this may still take several weeks of work to get there.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3300

Counter-trend opportunities: Try small shorts at 1.3390, stops above 1.3400, target 1.3330

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday Jun 20 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 19 08:30 Housing Starts May 1490K 1485K 1528K
Jun 19 08:30 Building Permits May 1480K 1475K 1457K
Jun 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/15 NA NA 82K
Jun 21 08:30 Initial Claims 06/16 310K 310K 311K
Jun 21 10:00 Leading Indicators May 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%
Jun 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jun 9.0 7.0 4.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3250

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change after a tiny range day yesterday and hesitation at 1.3430 resistance: We held above 1.3280 last week, rallying to just below 1.3400, and forming a bullish daily candle and a weekly "doji" candle in the process. This means that we have reversed our weekly direction and now look to buy into dips whilst above 1.3250. We should be able to hold above 1.3330/1.3300 in the event that we do get a small decline, and rallies from there should take the euro to the next band of resistance which lies around 1.3400/1.3450. Slightly longer term, we expect the euro to re-test the 1.3700 level, but this may still take several weeks of work to get there.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3300

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3435, stop 1.3465, target 1.3335

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Monday Jun 25 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 5.85M 6.00M 5.99M
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 105.5 106.0 108.0
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 900K 925K 981K
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May -2.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Jun 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/22 NA NA 6902K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 06/23 315K NA 324K
Jun 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 29 29 29
Jun 28 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Jun 29 08:30 Core PCE Inflation May 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 58.0 58.0 61.7
Jun 29 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 83.7 84.0 83.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3360

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A bullish week last week after the previous week's "spike low" from support, and now we are holding up around 1.3470 rather nicely. We need to break through tough resistance at 1.3500 early this week (786 Fibonacci resistance, previous barrier, and 10 week SMA) and then on towards 1.3550, and it's probably only a matter of time before we get a new all-time high at 1.3700. Continue to look to buy into dips this week whilst above 1.3360, with key support at the weekly low near 1.3370. Only below here changes our outlook.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3370

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday Jun 26 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 5.85M 6.00M 5.99M
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 105.5 106.0 108.0
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 900K 925K 981K
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May -2.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Jun 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/22 NA NA 6902K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 06/23 315K NA 324K
Jun 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 29 29 29
Jun 28 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Jun 29 08:30 Core PCE Inflation May 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 58.0 58.0 61.7
Jun 29 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 83.7 84.0 83.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3360

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: An amazingly small 35 pip range yesterday did little to change the analysis, and hopefully serves as a continuation of the rally: A bullish week last week after the previous week's "spike low" from support, and now we are holding up around 1.3470 rather nicely. We need to break through tough resistance at 1.3500 early this week (786 Fibonacci resistance, previous barrier, and 10 week SMA) and then on towards 1.3550, and it's probably only a matter of time before we get a new all-time high at 1.3700. Continue to look to buy into dips this week whilst above 1.3360, with key support at the weekly low near 1.3370. Only below here changes our outlook.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3370

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday Jun 28 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 5.85M 6.00M 5.99M
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 105.5 106.0 108.0
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 900K 925K 981K
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May -2.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Jun 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/22 NA NA 6902K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 06/23 315K NA 324K
Jun 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 29 29 29
Jun 28 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Jun 29 08:30 Core PCE Inflation May 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 58.0 58.0 61.7
Jun 29 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 83.7 84.0 83.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3360

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little changed as we battle between 1.3400 and 1.3500, whilst maintaining a bullish bias. We need to break through tough resistance at 1.3500 early this week (786 Fibonacci resistance, previous barrier, and 10 week SMA) and then on towards 1.3550, and it's probably only a matter of time before we get a new all-time high at 1.3700. Continue to look to buy into dips this week whilst above 1.3360, with key support at the weekly low near 1.3370. Only below here changes our outlook.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3370, 1.3410

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Friday Jun 29 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 5.85M 6.00M 5.99M
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 105.5 106.0 108.0
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 900K 925K 981K
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May -2.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Jun 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/22 NA NA 6902K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 06/23 315K NA 324K
Jun 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 29 29 29
Jun 28 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Jun 29 08:30 Core PCE Inflation May 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 58.0 58.0 61.7
Jun 29 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 83.7 84.0 83.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3360

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: 4 Tiny range days in a row mean no change to the outlook. We are stuck between 1.3400 and 1.3500, whilst maintaining a bullish bias. We need to break through tough resistance at 1.3500 early this week (786 Fibonacci resistance, previous barrier, and 10 week SMA) and then on towards 1.3550, and it's probably only a matter of time before we get a new all-time high at 1.3700. Continue to look to buy into dips this week whilst above 1.3360, with key support at the weekly low near 1.3370. Only below here changes our outlook.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3370, 1.3410

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday July 02 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 02 10:00 ISM Index Jun 55.5 55.0 55.0
Jul 03 10:00 Factory Orders May -0.8% -1.0% 0.3%
Jul 03 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 0.6% -3.2%
Jul 03 17:00 Auto Sales Jun 5.2M NA 5.5M
Jul 03 17:00 Truck Sales Jun 7.3M NA 6.8M
Jul 05 08:30 Initial Claims 06/30 315K 315K 313K
Jul 05 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 58.0 59.7
Jul 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/29 NA NA 1562K
Jul 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 135K 120K 157K
Jul 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jul 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jul 06 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.9 33.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3410

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Momentum remains bullish and last week's candle means we should try to push even higher this week, possibly without much retracement. Dips should hold above 1.3480, and no lower than 1.3420, so we will be looking for opportunities to buy at these levels on clear signs of reversal. First target 1.3550, and (after a break above there) 1.3650.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3480, 1.3420

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 04 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 02 10:00 ISM Index Jun 55.5 55.0 55.0
Jul 03 10:00 Factory Orders May -0.8% -1.0% 0.3%
Jul 03 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 0.6% -3.2%
Jul 03 17:00 Auto Sales Jun 5.2M NA 5.5M
Jul 03 17:00 Truck Sales Jun 7.3M NA 6.8M
Jul 05 08:30 Initial Claims 06/30 315K 315K 313K
Jul 05 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 58.0 59.7
Jul 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/29 NA NA 1562K
Jul 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 135K 120K 157K
Jul 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jul 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jul 06 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.9 33.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3410

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Small daily ranges mean little change. Momentum remains bullish and last week's candle means we should try to push even higher this week, possibly without much retracement. Dips should hold above 1.3480, and no lower than 1.3420, so we will be looking for opportunities to buy at these levels on clear signs of reversal. First target 1.3550, and (after a break above there) 1.3650.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3480, 1.3420

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday July 05 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 02 10:00 ISM Index Jun 55.5 55.0 55.0
Jul 03 10:00 Factory Orders May -0.8% -1.0% 0.3%
Jul 03 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 0.6% -3.2%
Jul 03 17:00 Auto Sales Jun 5.2M NA 5.5M
Jul 03 17:00 Truck Sales Jun 7.3M NA 6.8M
Jul 05 08:30 Initial Claims 06/30 315K 315K 313K
Jul 05 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 58.0 59.7
Jul 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/29 NA NA 1562K
Jul 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 135K 120K 157K
Jul 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jul 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jul 06 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.9 33.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3410

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Unchanged. Momentum remains bullish and last week's candle means we should try to push even higher this week, possibly without much retracement. Dips should hold above 1.3480, and no lower than 1.3420, so we will be looking for opportunities to buy at these levels on clear signs of reversal. First target 1.3550, and (after a break above there) 1.3650.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3480, 1.3420

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday July 06 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 02 10:00 ISM Index Jun 55.5 55.0 55.0
Jul 03 10:00 Factory Orders May -0.8% -1.0% 0.3%
Jul 03 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 0.6% -3.2%
Jul 03 17:00 Auto Sales Jun 5.2M NA 5.5M
Jul 03 17:00 Truck Sales Jun 7.3M NA 6.8M
Jul 05 08:30 Initial Claims 06/30 315K 315K 313K
Jul 05 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 58.0 59.7
Jul 05 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/29 NA NA 1562K
Jul 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 135K 120K 157K
Jul 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jul 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jul 06 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.9 33.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3410

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Just about touching the all-time high at 1.3680, and understandably shying away from it late in the day, forming a small "spike high" on the daily charts. This means we will allow for a lot more work between 1.3500 and 1.3700, with dips possibly even extending to 1.3400. Eventually we should break above 1.3700 and head higher towards 1.4000, but this might only be late in the month, or early in August. Today is the Jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls), so be cautious about entering any positions before then. Look to buy dips (only on clear signs of reversal) at 1.3550/20 and 1.3420.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3420

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday July 09 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 09 15:00 Consumer Credit May $7.0B $6.0B $2.6B
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Jul 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/06 NA NA 3151K
Jul 12 08:30 Initial Claims 07/07 315K NA 318K
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$60.0B -$60.0B -$58.5B
Jul 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $28.0B $31.0B $20.5B
Jul 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.2%
Jul 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.5%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.1% 0.3% 1.4%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.4% 0.2% 1.3%
Jul 13 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Jul 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 86.0 86.0 85.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We have been moving across the page between 1.3550 and 1.3650 since the beginning of the month. First retracement support is at 1.3550, and if we can hold above there early this week, we should be able to re-approach 1.3670 and possibly break higher to a new all time high. Continue to buy dips whilst above 1.3550, with a first target of 1.3650, and then 1.3800. Below 1.3550 postpones this and means we will allow for another bout of corrective price action down to 1.3500, and probably no lower than 1.3400.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3420

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday July 10 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 09 15:00 Consumer Credit May $7.0B $6.0B $2.6B
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Jul 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/06 NA NA 3151K
Jul 12 08:30 Initial Claims 07/07 315K NA 318K
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$60.0B -$60.0B -$58.5B
Jul 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $28.0B $31.0B $20.5B
Jul 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.2%
Jul 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.5%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.1% 0.3% 1.4%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.4% 0.2% 1.3%
Jul 13 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Jul 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 86.0 86.0 85.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change. We have been moving across the page between 1.3550 and 1.3650 since the beginning of the month. First retracement support is at 1.3550, and if we can hold above there early this week, we should be able to re-approach 1.3670 and possibly break higher to a new all time high. Continue to buy dips whilst above 1.3550, with a first target of 1.3650, and then 1.3800. Below 1.3550 postpones this and means we will allow for another bout of corrective price action down to 1.3500, and probably no lower than 1.3400.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3420

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 11 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 09 15:00 Consumer Credit May $7.0B $6.0B $2.6B
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Jul 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/06 NA NA 3151K
Jul 12 08:30 Initial Claims 07/07 315K NA 318K
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$60.0B -$60.0B -$58.5B
Jul 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $28.0B $31.0B $20.5B
Jul 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.2%
Jul 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.5%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.1% 0.3% 1.4%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.4% 0.2% 1.3%
Jul 13 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Jul 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 86.0 86.0 85.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Wow! A new record high on the euro and other currencies have followed suite. We are probably heading towards 1.4100 (see medium term projection) and retracements should try to hold above the previous record high of 1.3680. Remember - this move will have taken many by surprise, and triggered a bunch of stops, so opportunities to buy might be rare for the rest of this week. Allow for some hesitation around 1.3800, with limited dips quite possibly holding well above first support at 1.3720. And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. For today, we might not get an entry, but dips to 1.3680 would be good opportunities to buy.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday July 12 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 09 15:00 Consumer Credit May $7.0B $6.0B $2.6B
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Jul 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/06 NA NA 3151K
Jul 12 08:30 Initial Claims 07/07 315K NA 318K
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$60.0B -$60.0B -$58.5B
Jul 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $28.0B $31.0B $20.5B
Jul 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.2%
Jul 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.5%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.1% 0.3% 1.4%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.4% 0.2% 1.3%
Jul 13 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Jul 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 86.0 86.0 85.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Holding neatly at these very high levels and should continue to do so this week. We are probably heading towards 1.4100 (see medium term projection) and retracements should try to hold above the previous record high of 1.3680. Remember - this move will have taken many by surprise, and triggered a bunch of stops, so opportunities to buy might be rare for the rest of this week. Allow for some hesitation around 1.3800, with limited dips quite possibly holding well above first support at 1.3720. And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. For today, we might not get an entry, but dips to 1.3680 would be good opportunities to buy.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday July 13 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 09 15:00 Consumer Credit May $7.0B $6.0B $2.6B
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Jul 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/06 NA NA 3151K
Jul 12 08:30 Initial Claims 07/07 315K NA 318K
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$60.0B -$60.0B -$58.5B
Jul 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $28.0B $31.0B $20.5B
Jul 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.2%
Jul 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.5%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.1% 0.3% 1.4%
Jul 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.4% 0.2% 1.3%
Jul 13 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Jul 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 86.0 86.0 85.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USD/JPY

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 123.70

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: Now that 122.20 has been convincingly broken, the dollar has potential to rally to 124.00 - 126.00 before making a new long term top and collapsing lower towards 110.00 again. This scenario may be brought forward if we make a daily/weekly "spike high" into 124.00/125.00 followed by a sudden move lower, forming a monthly reversal. Play with caution and watch for a very clear reversal on longer term charts before turning bearish again.

Today's trade suggestion: An interesting technical formation, as we retrace 61.8% of this weeks decline, which coincides with the underside of the former upward trend line on hourly and daily charts, and the 200 hour SMA (see chart). This "should" be an excellent opportunity to sell into the retracement with a target of 121.00 and then 120.00.

Key G7 resistance levels: 123.00, 122.60

Counter-trend opportunities: None

USD/JPY Hourly chart:



USD/JPY Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Monday July 16 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 15.0 17.0 25.8
Jul 17 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
Jul 17 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May $70.0B $84.1B
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 81.5% 81.5% 81.3%
Jul 18 08:30 CPI Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jul 18 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1460K 1450K 1474K
Jul 18 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1500K 1490K 1520K
Jul 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/13 NA NA -1462K
Jul 19 08:30 Initial Claims 07/14 315K NA 308K
Jul 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Jul 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 13.0 18.0
Jul 19 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: After the first burst higher to 1.3800 early next week, we have been moving sideways since then. The analysis remains the same: Allow for some hesitation around 1.3800, with limited dips quite possibly holding well above first support at 1.3720 (1.3660 max). And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. For today, we might not get an entry, but dips to 1.3680 would be good opportunities to buy.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3720

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 18 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 15.0 17.0 25.8
Jul 17 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
Jul 17 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May $70.0B $84.1B
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 81.5% 81.5% 81.3%
Jul 18 08:30 CPI Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jul 18 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1460K 1450K 1474K
Jul 18 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1500K 1490K 1520K
Jul 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/13 NA NA -1462K
Jul 19 08:30 Initial Claims 07/14 315K NA 308K
Jul 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Jul 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 13.0 18.0
Jul 19 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Edging fractionally higher to 1.3825, a new all-time high, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG umber at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should hold well above first support at 1.3720 (1.3660 max). And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. For today, we might not get an entry, but dips to 1.3680 would be good opportunities to buy.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3720

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday July 19 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 15.0 17.0 25.8
Jul 17 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
Jul 17 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May $70.0B $84.1B
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 81.5% 81.5% 81.3%
Jul 18 08:30 CPI Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jul 18 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1460K 1450K 1474K
Jul 18 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1500K 1490K 1520K
Jul 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/13 NA NA -1462K
Jul 19 08:30 Initial Claims 07/14 315K NA 308K
Jul 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Jul 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 13.0 18.0
Jul 19 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Signs of instability ahead of the FOMC minutes later today and the dangers remain the same: bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should hold well above first support at 1.3720 (1.3660 max). And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3720

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday July 20 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 15.0 17.0 25.8
Jul 17 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
Jul 17 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May $70.0B $84.1B
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 81.5% 81.5% 81.3%
Jul 18 08:30 CPI Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jul 18 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1460K 1450K 1474K
Jul 18 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1500K 1490K 1520K
Jul 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/13 NA NA -1462K
Jul 19 08:30 Initial Claims 07/14 315K NA 308K
Jul 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Jul 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 13.0 18.0
Jul 19 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change after two full weeks of going nowhere. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should hold well above first support at 1.3720 (1.3660 max). And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3720

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: