May '04 Forex
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bazzab
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BO System
Hey All,
I hang with Buk over in Paltalk and he said I should see what you guys are doing with your BO system.
I have just entered the Fx World. I started looking at the charts and immediately noticed that the big moves in currencies happened usually around the same time of day, depending on which pair I was looking at. I only look at USD crosses with CAD, EUR, GBP, CHF, and JPY, focusing mainly on GBP and EUR. I tried trading the demo account but would have to stay up until 11pm every night (in California) to do this. Usually this meant logging in, setting my BO stops on either side of a range, then closing up, sleeping and waking in morning to see results. I was inconsistent in getting to the computer at 11pm and in order to be profitable with any system, you must enter every signal.
Recently, I started with Tradestation and have coded my system in it. My goal was to code a strategy system, then use the Tradestation AutoTrade function to trade it. That still is my goal, i'm just not there yet.
The GBP parameter setup (breakout after 0600 GMT), have results over the past 5 months of W/L = 58/50 = 53.7%, Gross Profit / Gross Loss = 1.83. These include a 3 pip spread cost per RT ($30). Based on a 100k trade, one nets a profit of $16,720 over the 5 months.
The EUR (breakout from 0600 GMT) is not as profitable. It doesn't move as much as GBP has lately.
I have tested these with slightly different entry times and results do not improve signifcantly. I would expect them not to.
I tried quickly coding a reversal strategy whereby if I was stopped out I would reverse. The results ended up similar to these results but I need to look at doubling that reversal.
Plus, I plan to code a multiple entry, scale out strategy to see if results improve.
Would you say these are decent, ok or good results?
Hey All,
I hang with Buk over in Paltalk and he said I should see what you guys are doing with your BO system.
I have just entered the Fx World. I started looking at the charts and immediately noticed that the big moves in currencies happened usually around the same time of day, depending on which pair I was looking at. I only look at USD crosses with CAD, EUR, GBP, CHF, and JPY, focusing mainly on GBP and EUR. I tried trading the demo account but would have to stay up until 11pm every night (in California) to do this. Usually this meant logging in, setting my BO stops on either side of a range, then closing up, sleeping and waking in morning to see results. I was inconsistent in getting to the computer at 11pm and in order to be profitable with any system, you must enter every signal.
Recently, I started with Tradestation and have coded my system in it. My goal was to code a strategy system, then use the Tradestation AutoTrade function to trade it. That still is my goal, i'm just not there yet.
The GBP parameter setup (breakout after 0600 GMT), have results over the past 5 months of W/L = 58/50 = 53.7%, Gross Profit / Gross Loss = 1.83. These include a 3 pip spread cost per RT ($30). Based on a 100k trade, one nets a profit of $16,720 over the 5 months.
The EUR (breakout from 0600 GMT) is not as profitable. It doesn't move as much as GBP has lately.
I have tested these with slightly different entry times and results do not improve signifcantly. I would expect them not to.
I tried quickly coding a reversal strategy whereby if I was stopped out I would reverse. The results ended up similar to these results but I need to look at doubling that reversal.
Plus, I plan to code a multiple entry, scale out strategy to see if results improve.
Would you say these are decent, ok or good results?
Last edited:
TheBramble
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Welshmal said:
If it's not too painful Mal, just how did you lose what was obviously a good month's profits?
I for one would be keen not to make the same move(s) myself.
TheBramble
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bazzab said:
Bazz, welcome to t2w and a great first post! Very open with what you're doing and why.
I'd say any system with a greater than 50% win rate and win/loss ratio of almost double is somewhat more than decent. Good stuff.
I'm impressed you're looking to work with TS and semi-automate your systems design. It's something I'm also looking to move into.
Which chatroom do you and Buk use?
I’m happy to outline how the month turned into such a disaster to enable some to learn, others to laugh and the rest to say “pathetic”.
My trading strategy is simple based on the breakout concept but using a combination of the 1-8 period and 7-10. If I had stuck to this throughout May I would be several thousand pounds the better. However, the first two weeks were negative after attempting to trade the economic news, not tightening or applying stops and in one case forgetting to close a trade on the Friday and finding out Monday it had reversed by several hundred. The third week saw a huge retrace of profit, a better understanding of the marketing and the general trend. Until yesterday. Well in profit. However, with debts, mortgage etc I felt Friday was an opportunity to double my money…………
For sometime I have watched the daily analysis by FX Street and instead of waiting for the breakouts I used both their Cable and Euro/USD recommendations which were the exact opposite to my breakout signals.. I bought instead of selling and quickly lost money. Instead of closing I sat and watched them drop further. Having effectively lost all my gains I decided to make up the loss and trade the 1 30 US news. I used the USD/CHF as my pair yet little happened. I just left it run at £10 per point not appreciating that economic news around 2.45 -3 30 had a massive impact on the market. On my return I found myself with a huge loss.
That is my story. One of greed, lack of focus and frankly stupidity. Forex is volatile and holds many dangers. The future; trade what is proved and stick to the letter on the plan. It is better not to trade than take a gamble when there are confused signals. Trading economic news is hazardous and I for one will not attempt it with money. I do however intend to study it further and record the information/results. Finally, remember to close all positions. This is a particular problem with CMC (Deal4Free) and requires checking.
I look forward to meeting up here on Tuesday; a fresh month and a serious lesson learnt.
My trading strategy is simple based on the breakout concept but using a combination of the 1-8 period and 7-10. If I had stuck to this throughout May I would be several thousand pounds the better. However, the first two weeks were negative after attempting to trade the economic news, not tightening or applying stops and in one case forgetting to close a trade on the Friday and finding out Monday it had reversed by several hundred. The third week saw a huge retrace of profit, a better understanding of the marketing and the general trend. Until yesterday. Well in profit. However, with debts, mortgage etc I felt Friday was an opportunity to double my money…………
For sometime I have watched the daily analysis by FX Street and instead of waiting for the breakouts I used both their Cable and Euro/USD recommendations which were the exact opposite to my breakout signals.. I bought instead of selling and quickly lost money. Instead of closing I sat and watched them drop further. Having effectively lost all my gains I decided to make up the loss and trade the 1 30 US news. I used the USD/CHF as my pair yet little happened. I just left it run at £10 per point not appreciating that economic news around 2.45 -3 30 had a massive impact on the market. On my return I found myself with a huge loss.
That is my story. One of greed, lack of focus and frankly stupidity. Forex is volatile and holds many dangers. The future; trade what is proved and stick to the letter on the plan. It is better not to trade than take a gamble when there are confused signals. Trading economic news is hazardous and I for one will not attempt it with money. I do however intend to study it further and record the information/results. Finally, remember to close all positions. This is a particular problem with CMC (Deal4Free) and requires checking.
I look forward to meeting up here on Tuesday; a fresh month and a serious lesson learnt.
takes some guts to 'post' such an open & honest log of events Mal....sorry to hear of your mishaps....as you quite rightly say, stick to your rules & obey your system!
I'm sure all who observe this thread wish you continued good fortune, and many more will appreciate the comments relating to "conflicting/contrary information".......
I very much doubt they'll be many laughing at your comments, more like a good percentage empathising with your recent plight......all the best for next week mate!
I'm sure all who observe this thread wish you continued good fortune, and many more will appreciate the comments relating to "conflicting/contrary information".......
I very much doubt they'll be many laughing at your comments, more like a good percentage empathising with your recent plight......all the best for next week mate!
We've all been there!
Hi Mal,
I can only sympathise with what has happened to you. I'm 3 years into this trading malarky and am around BE overall.
I've made plenty of stupid mistakes along the way myself.
The important thing is to learn from them and move on mentally. This is one reason I'm using Automated Systems now as it's easier to just let the computer follow the rules.
Even this is difficult as one system I'm trading has had 14 consequetive losing days. Prior to that it had made 'Spot On' look puny in comparison.
I've got to decide whether or not I contunue to trade it as my account has been well hit in that period.
JonnyT
Hi Mal,
I can only sympathise with what has happened to you. I'm 3 years into this trading malarky and am around BE overall.
I've made plenty of stupid mistakes along the way myself.
The important thing is to learn from them and move on mentally. This is one reason I'm using Automated Systems now as it's easier to just let the computer follow the rules.
Even this is difficult as one system I'm trading has had 14 consequetive losing days. Prior to that it had made 'Spot On' look puny in comparison.
I've got to decide whether or not I contunue to trade it as my account has been well hit in that period.
JonnyT
neil
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Mal.
Many of us have had your experience when live trading. People to whom one says, " Paper trading is totally different to putting cash on the line. Thats the time you are fighting your very own demons," never appreciate the truism until they, themselves, enter the live trading arena.
And having written about your battle with your ego, it may act as some sort of cathartic release. So expect to begin to improve from now on.
Many of us have had your experience when live trading. People to whom one says, " Paper trading is totally different to putting cash on the line. Thats the time you are fighting your very own demons," never appreciate the truism until they, themselves, enter the live trading arena.
And having written about your battle with your ego, it may act as some sort of cathartic release. So expect to begin to improve from now on.
Just a quick note to say "cheers". I have received a stack of personal messages on top of the postings on here. The general feeling is that most have been there and now wear the T shirt. What it does demonstrate is the real sense of community. The majority of personal messages have been from novices like myself, many of whom do not post on a regular basis. Clearly there are many more that read this board than maybe post but I would encourage everybody to participate as it is through learnt experience can we all benefit from the greater knowledge. I will return on the new June thread and look forward to the community extending.
TheBramble
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JonnyT said:
JT - desperate for some 'real' trading data to use in my 'max consecutive loss' calculations - is this (currently wayward) system you mention showing around a 40% win probability at present?
TheBramble
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Welshmal said:
Your post should be mandatory reading for all traders.
bazzab
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<For sometime I have watched the daily analysis by FX Street >
I wrote some scripts to extract analyst recommendations and such from their site. Its a good site with lots of information.
I loosely followed what some of those analysts said (I did not trade off them however). They were all over the place in their systems and often wrong or simply had entries outside the range of the day.
I have since shut those scripts off.
I wrote some scripts to extract analyst recommendations and such from their site. Its a good site with lots of information.
I loosely followed what some of those analysts said (I did not trade off them however). They were all over the place in their systems and often wrong or simply had entries outside the range of the day.
I have since shut those scripts off.
