Live Trades

[hhiusa]

Interesting take hh..am i correct in saying you have no stops in there..just profit targets..do the stops go in next day?

I tend to trade stocks as you are physically buying a share which will cause the market differently than other financial instruments. That has been my experience.

As for the stops, I don't use automated stops, only discretionary stops. To clarify, If I put a loss prevention order for 1% below the avg px., it can cause unnecessary losses. For example, BTU closed @ 9.64, sometimes the stock may dip below the "stop" and then recover to make a profit later. If BTU dropped below 9.54 the next day, then it would sell when I do not want it to. To that effect, I create time dependent stops instead. I have discretionary stops on a per equity basis. They are all slightly different. If the equity has not reached a target price by a specified time, then I sell if it positive. If it is negative, then I wait and so far it has worked about 95% of the time. I have enough assets that I do not mind having that cash tied up while I wait.

I have several open trades at a time as you saw there so if one doesn't reach a target price I wait it out.

I was not paying close attention and forgot that the market closed at 1:00 PM EST today. I will be changing those prices to adjust for my mistake.

 

[Lúidín]

I tend to trade stocks as you are physically buying a share which will cause the market differently than other financial instruments. That has been my experience.

As for the stops, I don't use automated stops, only discretionary stops. To clarify, If I put a loss prevention order for 1% below the avg px., it can cause unnecessary losses. For example, BTU closed @ 9.64, sometimes the stock may dip below the "stop" and then recover to make a profit later. If BTU dropped below 9.54 the next day, then it would sell when I do not want it to. To that effect, I create time dependent stops instead. I have discretionary stops on a per equity basis. They are all slightly different. If the equity has not reached a target price by a specified time, then I sell if it positive. If it is negative, then I wait and so far it has worked about 95% of the time. I have enough assets that I do not mind having that cash tied up while I wait.

I have several open trades at a time as you saw there so if one doesn't reach a target price I wait it out.

I was not paying close attention and forgot that the market closed at 1:00 PM EST today. I will be changing those prices to adjust for my mistake.

Your choice hh, and once it works for you I would continue and ignore all else.

My short term hold take on your symbols would be as follows, based on a simple layout I use for my stock trading, and just for curiosity I will post same.

BTU @ 9.64...low liquidity with 1.07m adv..days to cover 8.99
Current bias long with caution..could reverse quickly and test the 52w low of 7.06

LKQ @ 29.49...low liquidity with 1.47m adv..days to cover 3.94
Current bias long..target 52w high of 32.25 if recent high of 30.20 is taken out

AIG @ 61.70...good liquidity with 8.8m adv..days to cover 1.76
Current bias is wait..long above 62.70..short below 61.35

FL @ 64.99...ok liquidity with 2.74m adv..days to cover 5.75
Current bias is wait..long above 68.25 with tight stop at 67.75..short below 62.90 with tight stop at 63.10

PVTB @ 41.95...low liquidity with 539K adv..days to cover 6.52
Current bias is wait..long above 43.10 with tight stop at 42.80..short below 40.20 with stop at 40.60

I have not put in targets as I do not trade like this and would have to spend some time to work them out - just interested to see how they pan out compared to your entry and stop criteria.

 

[hhiusa]

I will put new buy and sell prices soon to account for my mistake of not accounting for Christmas Eve's early closing day.

 

[hhiusa]

BUY 4183:TSEJ (Mitsui Chemicals)
BUY MKT if time >=2015-12-28 05:55:00 GMT &
Price >= 525.8
SELL GTC LMT if price >= 1.01 * buy price

 

[hhiusa]

BUY MKT HRC:US (Hill-Rom Holdings)
If time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 49.15
SELL GTC LMT HRC:US
if price >= 1.013 * buy price

BUY MKT INTU:US (Intuit)
if time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 98.04
SELL GTC LMT INTU:US
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY MKT FL:US (Foot Locker)
if time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 65.10
SELL GTC LMT INTU:US
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY GERN:US (Geron)
if time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 4.83
SELL GTC LMT GERN:US
if price >= 1.01 * buy price

 

[Lúidín]

BUY MKT HRC:US (Hill-Rom Holdings)
If time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 49.15
SELL GTC LMT HRC:US
if price >= 1.013 * buy price

BUY MKT INTU:US (Intuit)
if time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 98.04
SELL GTC LMT INTU:US
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY MKT FL:US (Foot Locker)
if time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 65.10
SELL GTC LMT INTU:US
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY GERN:US (Geron)
if time >= 2015-12-28 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 4.83
SELL GTC LMT GERN:US
if price >= 1.01 * buy price

What size are you trading on these stocks..what is your max risk per trade..i would have some concerns with the low volume ones..just my personal choice of course..

GERN has a very high Short Ratio @ 10.3..and only an ADR of 0.25 cent

 

[Lúidín]

hh..just my opinion of course..i would hold off on GERN if i was trading it..which i would not..for my own reasons..but it is def setting up for a break..which could easily be to the downside..i would wait for confirmation before risking money on this one

 

[hhiusa]

What size are you trading on these stocks..what is your max risk per trade..i would have some concerns with the low volume ones..just my personal choice of course..

GERN has a very high Short Ratio @ 10.3..and only an ADR of 0.25 cent

GERN was high-risk for me. INTU was the only stock that met its target price. I bought 300 INTU @ 98.17. I rated them based upon my own metric.

Historically, I have purchased GERN 164 times in 7 years. It averaged 3.00% (μ=1.03) upswing after each buy signal with an 8.9% standard deviation (s=0.089) for a 95% confidence interval (<0.05). 93.2% of the time I closed the trade with >=1.5% profit.

0.95 = 1 - α. P(-z<=Z<=z)

P(1.030-1.96*(0.089/sqrt(163))<=μ<=1.030+1.96*(0.089/sqrt(163)))

σ^2 = 0.0899^2 = 0.00808

= 200.24

= 129.54

= 0.0101

= 0.1007

= 0.566

So there was maximum 44% risk of loss of up to 15%.

For INTU it was 33% risk of loss of up to 2.3%

 

[Lúidín]

Too many equations for my liking, but every man to his own

You seem to have a good handle on what you are doing, although I am not seeing any $ risk amount per trade, which for me is a must, no matter what.

I know you mentioned time stops, but gaps can crucify you if you are on the wrong side of the market with all open positions on same side, and I speak from experience, but then again, I did not really know what i was doing then, and am not afraid to admit it.

I also see how trading low size with no stops can be enticing, as I have done it myself, and do it the odd time still, but if i do it is only with very low risk, like 100 to 200 shares max, and I will still keep an eye on it and not let it get out of hand.

For all trades outside my regular trading, I keep my drawdown to a max of $1,500, and will not go beyond this for any reason.

For regular trading, it all depends on what the markets do in the first 1hr to 1.5 hrs, and I intend to be back into full swing in the next 6 months, as I still have a load of stuff to sort out that is preventing me from starting right now - but as they say, that is life

 

[hhiusa]

Too many equations for my liking, but every man to his own

You seem to have a good handle on what you are doing, although I am not seeing any $ risk amount per trade, which for me is a must, no matter what.

I know you mentioned time stops, but gaps can crucify you if you are on the wrong side of the market with all open positions on same side, and I speak from experience, but then again, I did not really know what i was doing then, and am not afraid to admit it.

I also see how trading low size with no stops can be enticing, as I have done it myself, and do it the odd time still, but if i do it is only with very low risk, like 100 to 200 shares max, and I will still keep an eye on it and not let it get out of hand.

For all trades outside my regular trading, I keep my drawdown to a max of $1,500, and will not go beyond this for any reason.

For regular trading, it all depends on what the markets do in the first 1hr to 1.5 hrs, and I intend to be back into full swing in the next 6 months, as I still have a load of stuff to sort out that is preventing me from starting right now - but as they say, that is life

Percentages are more important to me than physical numbers. I figured you could do the calculations based upon the percentages.

If an investment advisor tells you that he made $1,500 this year but you deposited $100,000, then you will not be happy. However, if I gave him $1,000 then I would be happy.

Another way we may be miscommunicating, is in regard to stops. If the market closes for AAPL @107.00 and opens the next morning at @105.00. It will not matter if you had a stop for 106.00. Your only choice is to wait for it to rebound or sell at 105.00. I do not use stops because I do not want premature losses.

 

[Lúidín]

Percentages are more important to me than physical numbers. I figured you could do the calculations based upon the percentages.

If an investment advisor tells you that he made $1,500 this year but you deposited $100,000, then you will not be happy. However, if I gave him $1,000 then I would be happy.

Another way we may be miscommunicating, is in regard to stops. If the market closes for AAPL @107.00 and opens the next morning at @105.00. It will not matter if you had a stop for 106.00. Your only choice is to wait for it to rebound or sell at 105.00. I do not use stops because I do not want premature losses.

All good if you don't overtrade and get a sudden spike in volatility.

Many have traded for long periods with no stops, taking a similar role to the market maker, without the backing of course, and one real bad day then wiped them out, main reason due to overtrading of course.

As mentioned, everyone to their own, but having learned the hard way, to me, the most important aspect of trading is limiting my loss at all times, for I know once I keep doing that I will make money as the market moves up and down.

I used to trade options for time decay, selling puts, but one of those real bad days changed my way of thinking forever, and the irony of it all is that it need not have been so bad, but that is what being ignorant does to you - fools you into thinking you are something you are not, making you ignore common sense and costing you loads of money.

This game is a load of bollox, but only if you let it be so, for, if one can just sit back and take the time to think about it, making money is as easy as ABC - at the right time, and in the right place, of course.

It is the most interesting endeavor ever, so simple, and yet so hard.

 

[hhiusa]

You still have not addressed my point about how stops would have helped.

 

[Lúidín]

INTU..again just my opinion..i would wait for confirmation

Will be interesting to see how this one pans out..if I was trading this I would be looking for a short to the downside if it breaks up thru the down trendline and then comes back down below the trendline..with a tight stop of 0.50 cent above the trendline

 

[Lúidín]

You still have not addressed my point about how stops would have helped.

As you mentioned, a gap will fly thru your stop, but will activate you stop, so you are out of the market with your set loss plus gap amount diff, which is a fundamental part of your trading plan.

If you are having a lot of these stops being bypassed, then you need to revise your plan - this is obvious as you will be losing more than you planned to risk.

This means you are not reading the market correctly - we are talking about normal trading, not major volatility like 2007, etc.

One way to cap your loss is to use options - however, you must factor in time decay and delta.

Another way is to revise your entry and exit criteria - do not enter a new trade near close of day in case of gaps, etc, etc.

There are man y ways to change your plan, but the main thing is that you must change it if it is not working, for, if you keep doing the same thing then you will get the same results.

This is why i prefer the way i daytrade - first 1 to 1.5 hrs - let the markets do what they want after that, i couldn't give a ****e what happens when I am done

 

[hhiusa]

As you mentioned, a gap will fly thru your stop, but will activate you stop, so you are out of the market with your set loss plus gap amount, which is a fundamental part of your trading plan.

If you are having a lot of these stops being bypassed, then you need to revise your plan - this is obvious as you will be losing more then you planned to risk.

This means you are not reading the market correctly - we are talking about normal trading, not major volatility like 2007, etc.

One way to cap your loss is to use options - however, you must factor in time decay and delta.

Another way is to revise your entry and exit criteria - do not enter a new trade near close of day in case of gaps, etc, etc.

There are man y ways to change your plan, but the main thing is that you must change it if it is not working, for, if you keep doing the same thing then you will get the same results.

This is why i prefer the way i daytrade - first 1 to 1.5 hrs - let the markets do what they want after that, i couldn't give a ****e what happens when I am done

No gaps are not apart of my trading plan. I do not use predetermined stops. You said that you used predetermined stops. I was asking you how you prevent such a situation.

I am not currently having much difficulty doing what I am doing, being diversified across many financial instruments. I do not use stops for an additional reason. I tend to double down if the market dips, the deeper the better. It lowers my average price in the instrument even more.

If there is a 50/50 chance that any stock will rise or fall, then I use a hypergeometric distribution to determine the probability that all of my choices will fail.

If I buy 5 stocks, then there is an extremely low probability they will all be failures; thus, diversification helps hedge against overall losses. The probability that all 5 will be losers is 3.125%.

 

[Lúidín]

No gaps are not apart of my trading plan. I do not use predetermined stops. You said that you used predetermined stops. I was asking you how you prevent such a situation.

I have told you, and showed you.

The option trades I psoted, by being long calls and puts, limit my risk per trade - I can not lose more than what I paid for the option.

When daytrading, my stops are based on price and time - like yourself, i have devised my own way to enter a trade, exit it if i am wrong, and exit it if i am right.

I will show you a section of what I use - I do not expect you to understand it, the same way I do not understand you equations, but like you, I know the averages, and do not look $2.00 if there is only $0.50 on offer - for, that would be silly of me and make me a fool

It will be by email btw, as I have no intention of giving vendors some ideas to use for to ask people for more money, as what I have works, and works well at that.

Send me a PM with your email address, and i will send you a screenshot of INTU on my screening setup, which today produced 1 long trade, with a risk of 0.19 cent, and a profit of 0.74 cent, which was hit.

You can reply here and say what you think, and if I have answered your question satisfactory, but I do not want you to post my screenshot here, or anywhere else, is that ok?

section of screenshot, which you can verify if you want me to send email to you - if not then no worries

 

[hhiusa]

I have told you, and showed you.

The option trades I psoted, by being long calls and puts, limit my risk per trade - I can not lose more than what I paid for the option.

When daytrading, my stops are based on price and time - like yourself, i have devised my own way to enter a trade, exit it if i am wrong, and exit it if i am right.

I will show you a section of what I use - I do not expect you to understand it, the same way I do not understand you equations, but like you, I know the averages, and do not look $2.00 if there is only $0.50 on offer - for, that would be silly of me and make me a fool

It will be by email btw, as I have no intention of giving vendors some ideas to use for to ask people for more money, as what I have works, and works well at that.

Send me a PM with your email address, and i will send you a screenshot of INTU on my screening setup, which today produced 1 long trade, with a risk of 0.19 cent, and a profit of 0.74 cent, which was hit.

You can reply here and say what you think, and if I have answered your question satisfactory, but I do not want you to post my screenshot here, or anywhere else, is that ok?

section of screenshot, which you can verify if you want me to send email to you - if not then no worries

I will PM you momentarily.

I do understand somewhat your point about options. However, I know options require a premium for holding a contract for shares, which equities do not.

If you place a call option for XYZ @ $40/share at $2. You place a single call. Your premium is $200. Unless XYZ rises above $42/share before the expiry date, you will not make any money. Losses are greater with options than equities. I invest $200 in an equity, it is very unlikely that I will lose all of it. It is however, very likely that you will lose all of it with an option.

If you close the call option at $42, that is $2 * 100 shares = $200 - $200 premium = $0. 0%. If I place that trade through an equity, I will make the 5%. You have to speculate that the underlying instrument will rise at least 5% before the expiry date.

If the XYZ call option never rises above $40, and ends up at $35 at the expiry date, you lose 100%. I will lose 12.5%.

How is that risk of loss any less than trading equities?

 

[Lúidín]

i am no expert at anything..but here is one way to limit your risk further by setting a profit target..will discuss further later

 

[Lúidín]

changed limit buy to 0.32 and filled..this is just a live example with 1contract for discussion

 

[Lúidín]

2nd live example with 3 contracts