Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

[Pat Riley]

Good Morning Pat

The "long view " ? - if you mean my intraday trading style - then yes anything lasting over 30 mins seems more like fortune telling for me ;-)). Even 4 hr / 8 + hr rallies in one direction have retrace opportunities for RR's of anything from 2 to 4 with tight stops - so if they are there - why not "have em "

I was just havin a bit of fun with the site's premier scalper suggesting you were a long view type of guy.

I must ask you an important question Pat

With a nic like Pat Riley - and constant connection to the Emerald Isle - and also being a very intelligent person who seems to know an awful lot about this "industry" - might you not be Irish at all ??

No problem at all sir. Quite right to be cynical when it comes to claims and statements on the internet. To be sure, I don't feel I'm anythin these days what with all the traveling and such, but me mother assures me I am Irish. Never knew me dad so perhaps there's an element of issue there? An as I come to think about it, why would you suddenly be takin an interest in me parentage en all? Is it yourself father?

Enjoy your "globe trotting" and please keep us all entertained - you have even got me thinking I must visit Mexico City - and previous to your praise of it - it would have been on my bucket list of places never to even go to ;-)

It might not suit all that's for sure. But if yer up for a bit of fun, there's nowhere like it. Just don't tell the gf, she thinks I have a rotten old time there.

 

[Atilla]

I was just havin a bit of fun with the site's premier scalper suggesting you were a long view type of guy.

No problem at all sir. Quite right to be cynical when it comes to claims and statements on the internet. To be sure, I don't feel I'm anythin these days what with all the traveling and such, but me mother assures me I am Irish. Never knew me dad so perhaps there's an element of issue there? An as I come to think about it, why would you suddenly be takin an interest in me parentage en all? Is it yourself father?

It might not suit all that's for sure. But if yer up for a bit of fun, there's nowhere like it. Just don't tell the gf, she thinks I have a rotten old time there.

The force is strong with this one...

 

[Forexmospherian]

................................

No problem at all sir. Quite right to be cynical when it comes to claims and statements on the internet. To be sure, I don't feel I'm anythin these days what with all the traveling and such, but me mother assures me I am Irish. Never knew me dad so perhaps there's an element of issue there? An as I come to think about it, why would you suddenly be takin an interest in me parentage en all? Is it yourself father?


......................

Well - I am in my 62nd year of "fun" - and the only real thing I can remember was up to the age of about 27 - always wearing 2 condoms - ( ie the Irish way - too be sure too be sure ;-))) )

So even though I met and enjoyed the company of many Irish young ladies - I feel fairly confident I am not responsible for your birth :innocent: lol

 

[Pat Riley]

Well - I am in my 62nd year of "fun" - and the only real thing I can remember was up to the age of about 27 - always wearing 2 condoms - ( ie the Irish way - too be sure too be sure ;-))) )

So even though I met and enjoyed the company of many Irish young ladies - I feel fairly confident I am not responsible for your birth :innocent: lol

Depends which side of the Falls/Shankhill divide you were on sir. The proddies may well have used them but those good Catholic boys used the rhythm method. That involves having sex and then immediately going away for a while.

But if yer 62 there's an outside chance, so if it's alright with yourself, I'll call you Dad.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Depends which side of the Falls/Shankhill divide you were on sir. The proddies may well have used them but those good Catholic boys used the rhythm method. That involves having sex and then immediately going away for a while.

But if yer 62 there's an outside chance, so if it's alright with yourself, I'll call you Dad.

Lets make it official , i am calling fxmo Dad as well

It could have been worse - ie grandad - and I dont look a day over 45 and still dont need them blue pills ( yet )

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi F

Thanks for your post.

Just got up, the girls just came back from the Anzac Day 100 years.......

I did mention before that I would not make another post of this subject but I will answer your questions for respect and it may also help you clarify a few points. (see in red).

Myself I am very happy the way I trade, I am getting better at it every day, during my session I will have about 2 to 4 which I consider high probability trades with 80% wins, I risk 1% per 10 pips and seems averaging 20 pips per day is the norm.

I do believe you are an honest person and you mean business, but I cannot invest time on something that is not clear to me, as you can see I am doing not that bad and I prefer sharpen my own pencils.

Said that, I always have an open mind, maybe I will enjoy your way better than mine, you never know....

Best way to get me get involved or maybe others too is to post at the end of the day only on an EU chart your historical trades (not arrows) with entry, exit and reasons as I do with my journal, or as Sniper does or Bob Volman at the end of the week. It help others better understand the process of your thought together with all the technicality.

Have a nice WE

Fugazsy

Hi Fugazsy

Thanks for your comment and the answers you have given to some questions I raised in the previous post

We both agree that 10 -20 trades in a day session and win ratios of between 62 and 87% are all possible when you become experienced are all possible.

I am pleased with that part - because this is part of the key to greater intraday success - ie multi trades and ideally a high win ratio.

I have always found taking just 3 or 5 or even 6 trades a day is not enough for a "win" consistency. OK you might have a week when you are well into your trading zone and you are having win ratios of over 75% and therefore 3 or 4 trades a day will give you daily success simply because the market is being kind to you.

However as all Intraday traders know - its possible to have 4 or even 7 or even 10 bad trades in a row - even with a 75% win ratio - in fact 2 or 3 consecutive bad trades is common - since I have been full time never had more than 7 bad trades in a session ( is that luck or skill - I reckon both )

So - for me I need to look at a minimum 10 trades in a day - OK if first 5 or 7 are all winners I could stop - but normally I will have over 5 trades at least one go wrong and some days even 2 or 3 .

Win ratios are deceiving - ie which is better - ?

a) a intraday trader with a 12 pip stop and a win ratio of 70% making say 5 trades

b) a intraday trader with a 4 pips stop and a win ratio of only 40% making 5 trades ??

Trader a) might have 3 winning trades making a total of 22 pips - and then 2 losses which he lets be stopped out and loses 24 - so net result minus 2 pips and a loss

Trader b) only wins 2 trades out the 5 - one makes 5 pips - the other 12 pips and so totals 17 pips and his 3 losses make a minus 12 pips - so net result 5 pips positive

I want to exits a trade not going my way ASAP - I never wait to hit a 4 or 5 or 7 pip stop - thats another part which is so important - never wait to be minus 10 or minus 12 etc . If it goes you way and you got out minus 3 - then re enter - you are still better off

With regards to multi pair trading - its important .

I spent 3 years just scalping the EU and then another 2 year scalping both EU and GU. Nowadays I will scalp up to 6 -9 pairs - but never more than 3 at same times.

But no way should you scalp or trade 3 or 6 pairs until you have years of trading experience and at least 3+ screens to assist.

Finally - my "trading edge" is not just one thing - I reckon I have at least 4 trading edges over a normal FX Intraday trader - ie my experience backed up with over 17k + live trades now - my unique intraday method incorporating many components - including time of the session - my trade and money management and finally - my fluidity - I am just not stubborn at all - If I think the EU should rise in next hour and it goes down - I never stay with my initial take or view - the market is dynamic - I have no real bias - I am a vulture - I will go after anything if it will make enough of a profit - my views are never fixed - they move as the market moves.

As you know - I hope to be fully retired in next 2 -3 years. I don't mind sharing my own method - because I know out of every 10 traders who might try to replicate it - maybe only 2 or 3 will have the success that Major Magnum is having - and at least 4 or 5 will give up after just a few weeks or months - it will not be for them - its complex - its difficult -but when you crack it - its fantastic


Regards


F

 

[trade2windows]

Hi Fugazsy

Thanks for your comment and the answers you have given to some questions I raised in the previous post

We both agree that 10 -20 trades in a day session and win ratios of between 62 and 87% are all possible when you become experienced are all possible.

I am pleased with that part - because this is part of the key to greater intraday success - ie multi trades and ideally a high win ratio.

I have always found taking just 3 or 5 or even 6 trades a day is not enough for a "win" consistency. OK you might have a week when you are well into your trading zone and you are having win ratios of over 75% and therefore 3 or 4 trades a day will give you daily success simply because the market is being kind to you.

However as all Intraday traders know - its possible to have 4 or even 7 or even 10 bad trades in a row - even with a 75% win ratio - in fact 2 or 3 consecutive bad trades is common - since I have been full time never had more than 7 bad trades in a session ( is that luck or skill - I reckon both )

So - for me I need to look at a minimum 10 trades in a day - OK if first 5 or 7 are all winners I could stop - but normally I will have over 5 trades at least one go wrong and some days even 2 or 3 .

Win ratios are deceiving - ie which is better - ?

a) a intraday trader with a 12 pip stop and a win ratio of 70% making say 5 trades

b) a intraday trader with a 4 pips stop and a win ratio of only 40% making 5 trades ??

Trader a) might have 3 winning trades making a total of 22 pips - and then 2 losses which he lets be stopped out and loses 24 - so net result minus 2 pips and a loss

Trader b) only wins 2 trades out the 5 - one makes 5 pips - the other 12 pips and so totals 17 pips and his 3 losses make a minus 12 pips - so net result 5 pips positive

I want to exits a trade not going my way ASAP - I never wait to hit a 4 or 5 or 7 pip stop - thats another part which is so important - never wait to be minus 10 or minus 12 etc . If it goes you way and you got out minus 3 - then re enter - you are still better off

With regards to multi pair trading - its important .

I spent 3 years just scalping the EU and then another 2 year scalping both EU and GU. Nowadays I will scalp up to 6 -9 pairs - but never more than 3 at same times.

But no way should you scalp or trade 3 or 6 pairs until you have years of trading experience and at least 3+ screens to assist.

Finally - my "trading edge" is not just one thing - I reckon I have at least 4 trading edges over a normal FX Intraday trader - ie my experience backed up with over 17k + live trades now - my unique intraday method incorporating many components - including time of the session - my trade and money management and finally - my fluidity - I am just not stubborn at all - If I think the EU should rise in next hour and it goes down - I never stay with my initial take or view - the market is dynamic - I have no real bias - I am a vulture - I will go after anything if it will make enough of a profit - my views are never fixed - they move as the market moves.

As you know - I hope to be fully retired in next 2 -3 years. I don't mind sharing my own method - because I know out of every 10 traders who might try to replicate it - maybe only 2 or 3 will have the success that Major Magnum is having - and at least 4 or 5 will give up after just a few weeks or months - it will not be for them - its complex - its difficult -but when you crack it - its fantastic


Regards


F

3/5 is 60% not 70% so based on your example ,trader (a) is better off ....at least use a calculator for the simple stuff,so you dont look a fool

 

[Forexmospherian]

3/5 is 60% not 70% so based on your example ,trader (a) is better off ....at least use a calculator for the simple stuff,so you dont look a fool

A man for detail - that's good - I can guess who you are now

Glad you read it correctly and you are quite right it should have read 60% - not 70%

But lets give you another example - so I get my point over and I will use the following

Trader A has an average win ratio of 80% so on 5 trades he gets 4 correct and only 1 wrong

His stops size is 20 pips.

He had 4 winners and they range from a 4 pip win and 3 x 5 pips wins- so total net 19 pips - so still a net loss of 20 -19 = 1 pip negative

Trader B has just a 20% win ratio so on 5 trades - gets 1 correct and 4 wrong

His winning trade is 16 pips

His 4 losses are minus 2 - minus 4 - minus 2 and minus 3 = 11 pips

So net result - positive 5 pip gain - ie 400% better off than Trader A ( )

So result - trader B with a 20% win ratio makes money - trade A with a 80% win ratio loses money on same number of trades

That shows the importance of pulling out losing trades ASAP - but also how percentages can be so misleading

 

[trade2windows]

A man for detail - that's good - I can guess who you are now

Glad you read it correctly and you are quite right it should have read 60% - not 70%

But lets give you another example - so I get my point over and I will use the following

Trader A has an average win ratio of 80% so on 5 trades he gets 4 correct and only 1 wrong

His stops size is 20 pips.

He had 4 winners and they range from a 4 pip win and 3 x 5 pips wins- so total net 19 pips - so still a net loss of 20 -19 = 1 pip negative

Trader B has just a 20% win ratio so on 5 trades - gets 1 correct and 4 wrong

His winning trade is 16 pips

His 4 losses are minus 2 - minus 4 - minus 2 and minus 3 = 11 pips

So net result - positive 5 pip gain - ie 400% better off than Trader A ( )

So result - trader B with a 20% win ratio makes money - trade A with a 80% win ratio loses money on same number of trades

That shows the importance of pulling out losing trades ASAP - but also how percentages can be so misleading

1. I know how win rates work but its rubbish with you plucking numbers out of the air
2.I said use a calculator for math ...again you dont know what you are talking about ...it aint a 400% increase
3,You dont need to guess who I am ,it tells you my name in each post

 

[Forexmospherian]

1. I know how win rates work but its rubbish with you plucking numbers out of the air
2.I said use a calculator for math ...again you dont know what you are talking about ...it aint a 400% increase
3,You dont need to guess who I am ,it tells you my name in each post

Have you ever heard of Godel's incompleteness theorem ?

What i am impressed with is that you can follow - and not go with the flow of difference of 1 pip to 5 pips - being a 400% increase ( it was minus 1 not plus 1 and you spotted that )

You are a perfect example of a trader who should be able to take forward my trading method - but instead you have never given it just one bit of praise - but instead totally try to pull me and the method apart - by not using your main nic

What gives it away more is that you hardly ever use your trade2 windows nic to comment anywhere else - ie just anything connected with me - or on occasions just anything negative on any other new member

I find this fascinating

If you was a normal disser - you would not be going into this detail - showing that you read every word - not just skip through my comments.

If you are a successful FX trader are you therefore frustrated that my way is a lot better than the method you have been using ??

PS - before you reply - remember everything you say gives you away more ;-)

Regards

F

 

[NickBk]

F,
Firstly I still can't fathom your stamina for responding to these people, or person here it seems!
Now I will disagree with you a bit here. Many ways/systems can be very different and still have good outcomes and some are just better suited to personality types than others.
I am still getting through your threads and when I get sufficient time will be joining in and seeking help.
People who come here just to have a go are best ignored mate and are not adding anything. I think they go away faster if ignored, although I suspect you enjoy the banter.
Other people it seems just want great charts with exact entries and no input from themselves.
I do despair of forums at times, most times in fact.
GL

 

[trade2windows]

Have you ever heard of Godel's incompleteness theorem ?

What i am impressed with is that you can follow - and not go with the flow of difference of 1 pip to 5 pips - being a 400% increase ( it was minus 1 not plus 1 and you spotted that )

You are a perfect example of a trader who should be able to take forward my trading method - but instead you have never given it just one bit of praise - but instead totally try to pull me and the method apart - by not using your main nic

What gives it away more is that you hardly ever use your trade2 windows nic to comment anywhere else - ie just anything connected with me - or on occasions just anything negative on any other new member

I find this fascinating

If you was a normal disser - you would not be going into this detail - showing that you read every word - not just skip through my comments.

If you are a successful FX trader are you therefore frustrated that my way is a lot better than the method you have been using ??

PS - before you reply - remember everything you say gives you away more ;-)

Regards

F

Why is it that no matter how many time you are found out to be wrong or say something ridiculous you come back and counter with well done for spotting it as if it was done on purpose ...man up you **** up all the time just admit it

I only use 1 nic thats it ,I have had others but once they were banned I started over with another.So all other nics are banned and I cant use them .I dont use a proxy or hide my I.P(bar setting up new nic for 1 time) ever so mods can see who I am and was ...and as for me posting just negatively about you ,sure why not .there are plenty of asskissers that only post in your defence so I dont see why People cant only post against you

I dont know what you are talking about going into detail .I can understand upon reading things one time .I dont spend my day reading repetitive posts over and over trying to understand them

 

[Forexmospherian]

Monday 27th April 2015 - Approx 7 25 am

GM to all FX Intraday Traders

Sorry - at least one hour behind plan this morning - mainly due to windows update configuring problems

I have got one computer back up and working - but still got intermittent problems on my main charts computer - and so rebooting for a third time.

I have not been able to scalp at by normal Key times from after 6 21 - 6 30 - 6 39 - 6 51 - 7 00 am times - and noticed after the 7 00 am European Open was a great scalp buy on the EJ pair - but was not able to take it.

After being away for approx 10 days - all looked OK over the weekend - but typical instead of having problems at the weekend - they all start on a Monday Morning

Hope to be trading by the London Open

Have a good day and week

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

F,
Firstly I still can't fathom your stamina for responding to these people, or person here it seems!
Now I will disagree with you a bit here. Many ways/systems can be very different and still have good outcomes and some are just better suited to personality types than others.
I am still getting through your threads and when I get sufficient time will be joining in and seeking help.
People who come here just to have a go are best ignored mate and are not adding anything. I think they go away faster if ignored, although I suspect you enjoy the banter.
Other people it seems just want great charts with exact entries and no input from themselves.
I do despair of forums at times, most times in fact.
GL

Morning Nick

You are correct - I should ignore all the goading and wind ups etc - but as you know at times - I do like the banter and trying to get further reactions etc

Look forward to assisting your further if you do want join in any time in the future - I reckon if you go through all my main "other" threads - including the devil in the detail one - you will have enough info to at least be able to follow what I am looking for in terms of clues etc for my next intraday trade

Have a good week

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU

7 38 am Monday morning

From after 4 39 am and 6 00 am the EU as been a scalp buy so far making 0886 - above the previous interim R level at 0878/80

For now pullbacks that stay above 0860 are still scalp buys again but we must then try above 0890 and 0903 + as previously last week this again was all R area.

Failing to breach above the last main high of 0900 - would result in tests back on supports at now 0878 and 0860 and 70

Not checked the calender for today so far so plan to do that next before giving further updates

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU

7 44 am

This pair as been more of a sell after 6 30 am - ie not correlated with EU moves as price now as dropped 24 pips from its 5189 high - where as in similar time EU moved up approx 25 pips

We would need back over 5182 and 85 to be holding or looking for new scalp buys and under 5181 on pullbacks would still be sells again

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU

7 47am

Similar set up to GU from after 6 30 am with price falling approx 16 pips

Pullbacks staying under 0723/4 are scalp sells again with supports at 07810 / 12 area

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU

7 49am

We had a LH at 0883 and from then onwards we have fallen and have tested the 0860 area - as mentioned if we failed to try 0890 and 0903+

Now bounces staying under 0872 are scalp sells again to see if we can breach under 0850 next

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU

7 44 am

This pair as been more of a sell after 6 30 am - ie not correlated with EU moves as price now as dropped 24 pips from its 5189 high - where as in similar time EU moved up approx 25 pips

We would need back over 5182 and 85 to be holding or looking for new scalp buys and under 5181 on pullbacks would still be sells again

GU

7 53am

This pair as provided me with my best scalp so far this morning.

Price stayed under 5182 - in fact did not retrace above 76/77 and now as dropped 24 pips down to he 5153 area

Bounces staying under 68/70 are still sells again for now

Back after LO

 

[Forexmospherian]

8 07 am

Update for end of London Open TW at 8 09 am

GU / AU / and even EU have all been sells in this TW from 7 51 am

So far AU as made interim low of 7791 and bounced from Open

GU low so far 5141 and again bounced at LO

EU low so far 0839/ 40 - and another bounce

Only went with AU scalp buy for now