Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

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Just noticed I have 3 messages in my in box. Sorry guys - cannot reply or thank you for your support - as I promised I would not do any private messaging on T2W - and therefore will keep to my promise

But thank you and you are welcome to follow me here and ask questions / queries etc and I will do my best to reply and answer them

Good trading to you

Regards

F
 
EJ - nice - now down to 131.62/3 - which is also another support area. Taken all of scalp sell off as out in next 30 mins and of course - big news items ;-))

GL if you hold
 
just gone 3,30pm UK time and only got back in last 15 mins. EJ -broke up above R's and previous highs and also above an area I thought it might stall at 132.10 - 12.

Present high at 132. 24 and above more R's at 36 to 40 . Whilst above 132. 08 - still looks bullish for now - scalp buy bias - but going to get ready for another trade in next time windows just prior to the next hour change for now

Further drops on EU and GU - with swissy pair up due to dollar strength

next planned trade will be out shortly ;-)
 
EJ still trying to go above the high and cut off is 14 now if you are in scalp buys - which of course really - you should be - with 17 mins to hr change
 
struggling at 24/5 - need to see EJ try higher before hour change but suggest whilst its stalling take at least 60% of your scalp buy scalp off - just in case it pulls back 4 -7 pips
 
This is were you have to look at your own method here on EJ - if you are in a scalp buy from 91 or 132,00 - you dont mind a 10 pip pullback - but if you have only scalped above 08 or 12 - like I have coming to the party late - you want profit and also as a scalper am aware that at 21 - you can scalp sell and hold on if it goes under 14 for around 08.

For now we can only scalp buy - or hold one on over 25 again as coming up to the hr change - this is a time window and many might be taking profit - after all EJ as risen nearly 90 pips from just before Opens - but still not near a ADTR - of normally 120 -180+ pips

Decisions - decisions - and of course the market will tease and try and catch you out - what ever you do ;-))
 
133.27 was it for now - exited the rest at 22 and looking now at LH's and LLs saying scalp sell and hold under 14 and 08 - or just take what you can get on scalp
 
Well EJ went under 08 - but came out at 09 on 70% off and will leave rest on under 17

Here's a chart attached as well
 

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  • EJ - 81113.JPG
    EJ - 81113.JPG
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Did not need to use stop in profit at 17 - EJ got to 132.02 in the end - and then I my system 06 was a scalp buy - and so just exited the other 30% - but not entered the scalp buy - as too slow to get in and price I needed

Shame as it as gone up to 17+ and so missed the scalp buy but as we are coming up to the half hr change - will not just jump in - even if we do go over 20 and test the highs again
 
My hesitance and also risk averseness as meant I missed out on that new high - shame - but ay no problem - easy over 50+ pips today so I dont have to push myself now ;-)
 
Hi Spinola - I use a few different charts on each pair I scalp trade - 1 naked so just see to exact price and structure - and then my LR spaghetti chart that helps me determine strength of moves - with more Lrs under price saying up a more over saying down

My set up is very complex with information overload as well as using a stop watch as well to assist on changes in robot settings used by the liquidity supplier of the session

I just dont see trading as simple - and if you use simple methods - you dont get the accuracy and the high RR's etc - nor the high probabilities set ups

Instead KISS methods result in simple results - ie you break even or make low average returns monthly or quarterly

So many traders have still not got it that say for example a 17 pip win with a 5 pip stop and RR of over 3 is so much more profitable and efficient to a 100 pip win and a 50 pip stop - RR 2 and takes too long and so inefficient for compounding and growing account quickly.

Hope that explains why i use busy cluttered overload charts ( as well as plain) as I am 100% technical trader and for short term day trading - funny mentals are just a waste of time ;-))

Cheers

Regards

F

PS - thank you again the guys who have PM''d me - I promised I would not use PM's so will not be replying to them - but all questions etc can be asked in the forum etc - but no I dont do alerts or sell anything etc etc - but can give general assistance with your trading journey

PPS - will reply to a few other questions over weekend including Random's one on commissions and spreads etc etc
 
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Forexmospherian said:
Morning Guys

The EJ is a pair of interest prior to the Opens

Its been falling approx 440 pips over this last few weeks and is now down near a lot of support areas around the 131.05 to 20 areaa - that have been used before for tries back up

Low so far at 131 .21 and according to the 1 hr chart - we would need back over dynamic resistance over 63 -66 to be trying backup.

We have had a HL as well at 131.29 and are at present in scalp buy buy bias from 131. 42.
Click to expand...

This is part of the comment 437 and 7,02 am UK time this morning.

The EJ by the end of the day peaked at at 132.53 - so over 110 pips higher and i got over half that number - with some of the profit pips coming from scalp sells on the way up.

No way at the beginning of the day did I know it would go up that high - I only find high probabilities on movements every 30 -60 mins and for me trying to predict 12 hrs ahead with any certainty means you are a fortune teller or more likely a "guesser" thinking 50 /50 forecasts are the way to trade.

Did not do much at all on the EU and GU - as was not about for main NFP news and had no "free trade " sells left on - which I suppose shows i was not really focused enough - plus the fact amazed at the main news the players did not try at least a 50 pip spike up to take out bear trailing stops - they missed out there ;-))

Have a great weekend

Regards

F
 
Forexmospherian said:
Hi FXPunt - a very good question - and i will give you my own thoughts - which of course might be different to many other traders .

First of all - i have in the back of my mind the stronger pairs and the weaker pairs and then look at some of the crosses like the EG
Click to expand...

a very gd question indeed, & in response a very well articulated, succinct outline of your strategy.

so, you did say the back of your mind? not the front? let me draw that up on a chart.
 
Hi rsh01 - You have puzzled me on that one - but I will explain - why I said "in the back of my mind"

You might have gathered if you are read any of my comments that I don't think trading is simple and as a short term intraday trader the past to me does not count too much.

Trend can change in a minute - so even if the monthly weekly daily four hour have been saying the trend is down - thats does not mean that a new up trend cannot start with just a rise of 3 pips.

In fact above 3 pips is a trend - so if the trend is your friend - my friends are the tick charts up to last hour charts and I take more regard for what they are saying than I do of a monthly or weekly etc ;-)

Anything over 15 pips in movement is great as far as I am concerned as it offers a trade with a good RR - ie 3 or even more - and if a movement goes 35 or 45 pips - well that'e heaven - especaily if within 30 or 60 mins as a possibility of an RR of 7 - 10 - so 1 per cent risk and you could have 7 -10% increase in return in under 1 hr - and then bank it ;-)

So when I hear the dollar is strengthening this month and the Euro is weakening- I think in the back of my mind - Ok so my Euro scalp sells should give me more pips than my Euro scalp buys ;-)

But no way would it encourage me to just trade in one direction only - why should it ???

After all if a trend is over 3 pips in movement - there are lots of trends every hour and every day - I just want to make sure I ride a few in the correct direction

Hope that explains a bit more - i am very much into trading now and the future - and the past days and weeks too me are not on my top 3 list of clues to what goes on in the next 15 or 30 minutes ;-)

Will get on to spread commissions and compounding and other issuse raised this week a bit later on - or certainly over the weekend - I have had enough of shopping and domestic chores for now ;-))


Regards

F
 
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RE - Compounding in Forex trading - several traders have really had a go at me saying that if you are good as you say and do 30-50% gains every month - then you would be worth billions by now ( or even 100's of millions).

Well sorry to disappoint you guys - but as I have said many times already - I hit my "compounding financial wall" approx 4 yrs ago at 22 lots. - and did it do my head in :-((

I had managed to go up through the gears from just under 1 lot up to 10 lots - with no real problem

Then i got over 14 lots and the problems started with GFT Uk taking anything from 20 - 50 seconds to get my orders on - i complained - but at that time there were not so many ECN brokers - and they actually said - it had to be verified / manually that my account could take the stake before it was entered into the market ( yes true)

I do know of one trader using Barclay's Capital who placed a 1500 lot trade on the GU on the last election day a few year ago - and it was over 1 hr before all of it was placed on . Normal retail brokers in the UK do not allow internet order over approx £500 per pip.

He risked just over $150k out of his capital and in the end just cleared a half a million dollars win after leaving it on for approx 6 hrs. but similar to the entry - was not allowed to exit with just a few minutes.

Now I have questioned this -but the guy has no reason to lie - as he's worth over £50 million and as a £2 million a year gambling budget that he uses on many products from forex to even the fruit machines in Vegas - ie the ones with the $100k + payouts.

With these delays on larger stakes - you cannot take 2 - 5 min scalp trades with really large orders - unless you are a bank or HFT player - and even then i reckon its not so clear cut etc.

Going back to me - i for the next 6 months had to go back down to just 5 lots to get my confidence back.

Prior to over 20 and 22 lots - i had not suffered more than 4 losses in a row and so my psych was shattered when I had a run of 7 bad trades in a row - and then on 2 wins - and another 4 losses again

I had never experience it prior in probably over 2OO0 trades - but it happened - and exactly when I was on my largest lots - and it nearly made me totally give up and forget trading.

Since then I have worked my way back up to just over 10 lots - but even with more experience and knowledge and even better MM - I am still not comfortable - and so rather than fighting it - I just trade under my "mind limit" and don't have to worry about the palpitations and the stress

OK if i was 20 -30 yrs younger - i would go through all the mind therapy and hypnosis stuff and see if I could get over my "financial wall" again. If i was trading the banks millions - it would probably be easier - but when you have $10k plus come off your account in under a day - you do normally start to think - is it for you and your own money?

Sorry to have to spill the beans but the chances of going from say a few dollars a pip to 100+ full lots per pip - and using the same strategy over 2 - 5 yrs etc - are near impossible - got to be 1000's and 1000's to one for any trader to do that as far as I am concerned.

That why in demo contests you can put your account up several hundreds of percent in a week and even 5000% plus in a month - no fear

The largest increase I have seen in a live trading account is over 3300% in just one month by a Far East woman trader ( FXIron contest) and she took the money rather than the first price of a Ferrari 360.

Now I can even take a live account up several thousand percent in a month - starting from $100 or $500 capital account - but once you get over $4000 - $5000 and you are on leverage of over 500 to 1 and you know your compounding strategy means you could lose it all in just a few consecutive losses - then it gets harder and you cannot maintain it.

So those guys who can work wonders on a small account - cannot - repeat cannot achieve the same results on a $100k+ live account. With regards to commercial traders working with millions - that's why they are happy with 2- 5% per month - its massive money and risk need to be well controlled.

Also commercial trading and retail trading is chalk and cheese - different ball game etc etc

Hope that explains it and I am sure we will near hear the opposite with some guy saying they have done it or know of other who have made £10 million in 3 yrs from $10k etc etc - well I am certainly not in their league they must be in the top 0.001% of retail traders ;-)))

In conclusion - nowadays I only compound on small accounts - and on my main live account - I have no plans to try and get it up to quarter of half a million in the next 6 months - instead - i will take out 50 -70% out of it every month and bank it elsewhere and then put the main account back down after every quarter .

I learn my lessons in 2008/9 - and still paying for them after the collapse of Lehmans Bros - ie the Bank that had been going what over 150 yrs - and then those "bar stewards" at GS helped close them down

Spread you risks as well - use 3 - 5 different banks etc don't trust anyone in this financial game and then you won't go too far wrong

You live and learn - you can make great money out of forex trading - but its hard and take years of dedication, study and a having the correct mindset to hit the big time - always remember that !!!

Regards

F
 
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your compounding strategy means you could lose it all in just a few consecutive losses - then it gets harder and you cannot maintain it." I'm getting confused. Even if you compounding , you risk max 2% of your account , Right? Does not matter what is your trading size , it's still 2% , max can be lost.A pip can be 10 cent or $10000 , you risk is the same , 2% .

F[/QUOTE]
 
Hi Tdezo - the comment regarding you could lose all in a few consecutive losses ( as I quoted) is only connected to when I am compounding on very small account s - (ie under $500 capital accounts) when you are trying to put 100's or even 1000's % increases within a few weeks or months - using high leverage ( 500 to 1 + ) and up to 20%+ stakes rather than your normal 1 -3%.

As I said - i would never do that with normal proper money accounts - I would keep my stakes to under 2% and on large accounts with a multi trading scalping strat - even as low as half a percent of you account.

BUT - here's the problem - as you say the max risk of 2% of your account - cannot - certainly in my case - mean I can slowly compound up from say 10 cents to 10000 lots on a straight linear basis - all due to your own particular psych and also the fact is during that period of compounding you will have a"black swan" moment - whereby you have 7 or 10 losses in a row - instead of your normal 2 or 4 losses in a row.

We can all handle having 10 or 15 wins in a row - easy and then whan you are compounding its all rosy and great and you are on fire .

However in my case - I could not psychologically handle over 20 /22 lots per pip - my mind played games and with the extra losses - it mean I was totally uncomfortable and could not continue at compounding - believing it was effecting my strategy making it not so successful.

We know its all in the "mind" - some traders may even be able to compound up to 50 lots a pip + ( with their own money _ and continue) - others might hit their wall at 15 lots or 25 lots or some other figure even a lot lower.

I agree if you are keeping your risk the same - ie less than 2% of capital and as the capital grows your stakes increase but never over 2% - yes the theory is great - but the human brain means we all cope with it differently - and it becomes like a "mental torture" - well it did for me anyway.

Yes easy on demo - give me 10 million+ and i will trade at 2000 + lots a pip etc etc - easy .

Then put it as your own real life money - and suddenly your mind reacts totally different - and unless you have been through all the training of handling say losses of $50 or $100k in a day or so - you will not be comfortable - and suddenly you will not have the total belief in your method and every thing that as happened in the past - plus the fact your entries and exits will be delayed and totally different to what you can do with 5 lots.

That's what I found - please tell me I am completely wrong if you have been able to do it - but its what happened to me in real life - and since then I have heard of many others have similar stories etc

Regards

F
 
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i do plan to answer more of Randoms commission spread and cost question during some time day - ie when I am not watching the Moto GP and the Man U v Arsenal game or sleeping after my Sunday Lunch ;-)) - Enjoy your Sunday
 
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