Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

[Forexmospherian]

once again, losers are bigger than winners. Is this because I will always take full hit on losers but not full profit on good ones? F do you see my dilemma there?

Well lets go through the principle - as you must be doing some thing wrong ?

1 Take a scalp trade - if not getting over say 4 -7 pips - take 100% of stake off and close for a profit.

2. Take a scalp trade and if it goes over 7 - 10+ pips and you think it as more movement in your direction -take 70% off ( you can take 66% or 75% off - but not under 60%)

3. Then the profit in the 70% will always outweight the 30% stake even if you allow it to go 5 pips into the red. If you let the 30% stake go 7 or 10 pips in the red - then no - you now have a loss on the whole trade. If you keep the 30% stake stop above entry - you cannot go wrong - as you have a profit and if the 30% stake goes above were you took the 70% stake off - you have a larger profit than taking 100% out at that point - OK

4. Ok if you enter a trade and it goes wrong way from entry by 3-5 pips - just exit with 100% - you have a loss but your winning trades should always or 85% be over the size of your losing trades - ie

5. Say 10 trades and only 6 winners - ( thats a low win ratio for a scalper - if you cannot get over 60% wins then really - you need to keep practicing - you need ideally 65% to 80% and as you know you can do that many days - even on 15 -25 trades.

6. So 6 winners at say 4 straight scalps with 4 - 7 - 8 and 10 pips and 2 winners with 7 pips each on 70% and then say the 30% stakes do 12 and 15 pips.

7. Add that up and you have 29 pips + 9.5 pips + 11 pips - total - 49.5 pips of winners

8. You have 4 losers - all with 5 pips - although that is not good - many losers I get out under minus 2 or 3 pips but for this exercise say 4 x 5 = 20 pips of losses

9. Net result on 10 trades 49.5 - 20 = 29.5 pip in total and positive money gains

10. Thats about right actually - on 10 trade you should be around 30 pips up or more. ie on good days on 10 trades I can be up over my daily target and near 80 -100 pips.

On bad days with say even 4 bad trades out of 10 - I would easily expect to be over 25 pips positive - if not - something wrong - ie no focus - not with it etc etc

This method will not work with stop sizes over 10 or 15 pips and similar if you start doubling up or doing other silly things - it can do wrong

You always need to do the number of trades ( if you get 5 good trades in a row - OK stop and have day off ;-) ) - you need over 60% win ratios and you should be safety first - I always take money off table don't leave it all on wanting more - you will normally get fried.

Also the forex markets are dynamic - your stops and targets should always be fluid - but with me its hardly worth trying to get stops under say 3 pips all the while ;-))


Hope that helps MM - any questions on it - please ask - no probs

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

I`ve been looking through and it is def cos I am taking 70% far too early most of the time,(your point2) This is due to fear of dipping win ratio! I see I have to let to run a bit more!

Also - dont let your 30% go under entry by more than a pip or 2 - keep it above entry or close

 

[Forexmospherian]

I`ve been looking through and it is def cos I am taking 70% far too early most of the time,(your point2) This is due to fear of dipping win ratio! I see I have to let to run a bit more!
ty for that explanation.
Its really great that you are taking the time to help us. Your explanations must take a fair bit of time out of your scalping day and I really appreciate it.

The day can be long and boring most of the time - that's why I have 2 or more breaks a day - unless after a bumper big pip day

Also - remember - its all second nature to me - like letting a clutch out on a car after you have done it hundreds and thousands of time - but try telling a learner its easy ;-)

Once you have you 500 and 1000 live trades under your belt - it will become more second nature - up to then you need full focus etc etc

So no problem - I am well over my target for today - although I am out this afternoon for a few hrs - so pleased I am - otherwise I would be fully in the zone - scalping like mad -

 

[Forexmospherian]

on a brighter note, I am sure my entries are in general, improving!

Good - exact entries are key for scalper - great exits help as well - but if your entries good - you have 3 -5 pips in your kitty for a start ;-)

 

[Forexmospherian]

You will get there MM - keep the focus and do the time and remain positive and the world is your oyster ;-)

GU still falling after news earlier on coming to 6270 area and Midday time window

When will it bounce and how far ???

 

[Forexmospherian]

Clue - 65 stopped it before - will it this time ??

 

[Forexmospherian]

Exact on 12.00 midday - and it stopped at 6256 - and then lovely bounce and scalp buy 3 pips above low.

Now at 70 - so take 70% off

 

[Forexmospherian]

51?

Amazing did not go under 558 on my platform ??

 

[Forexmospherian]

49 possible or did I just miss a great sb at 12:00 exact

Classic example of a manipulated move

many would scalp buy at 65 or 67 - far too early - never jump in advance - wait for train to stop ;-)

So under say 60 many carry on selling thinking lower next supports at say 45 -49 area.

But dead on hr change and middle of time window - all stops and orders are taken off sell and into buys

So yes at 12.01 pm you could scalp buy 1 or 3 pips above low

The low or 1 pip below is your stop, Dont let your 30% under it and really if we now dont go over 74 and 76 - just take profit .

I got 59 to 70 on 70% so 10/ 11 pips profit and i will not let my 30% go under 61 if I can help it and might take all off if we get 75 and then - have another play in a bit ;-))

 

[Forexmospherian]

cos end of tw, had 15pip bounce, tl below untested
and price interaction with my fastest.
sl hit immediately

You can only scalp sell GU under 64 - 61 and then 55 in my view ???

 

[Forexmospherian]

with the same logic, how cld I have scalp bought the g/u after 12:00 before the levels 70 had gone?

If you scalp bought GU after 12pm - WD

it now at 6278 - so 13 pips above our notional 65 and 22 pips above low

 

[Forexmospherian]

im back at the old confusion of " how can I get in within 5pips if I wait for those levels to fall?

That easy to explain here

To get with 5 pips on a scalp sell on GU here - was not on on - because the timimg and the PA was not ready for scalp sell in this price structure

However it was set up for a scalp buy from low with a stop under 5 pips - that was a correct situation

When the situation is not right - more than likely your trade idea is not on ;-))

 

[Splitlink]

once again, losers are bigger than winners. Is this because I will always take full hit on losers but not full profit on good ones? F do you see my dilemma there?

Have you considered putting a target on to make sure that you get a profit? Then, if you were right you would, at least, get stopped on the target. A good momentum opening will reverse into a loss, very often. That's a problem for all of us to come to grips with.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - got stopped out on my 30% stake scalp buy at 71 as had moved stop up from 61 after it hit 78.
Support area from 56 to 65 still trying to hold and would only scalp sell under 61 and hold under 55 and 50

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - got stopped out on my 30% stake scalp buy at 71 as had moved stop up from 61 after it hit 78.
Support area from 56 to 65 still trying to hold and would only scalp sell under 61 and hold under 55 and 50

interesting here 61 is a scalp sell - but the PA is being crafty again. Not happy - so pulled minus 1. 5 pip

 

[Forexmospherian]

On the GU - we have had 558 - a 57 and then a 58 and 59 - so all HL clues - but would need over 79 to confirm them . So under 78 still down bias but need now under 58 and 54 to be sure

 

[Forexmospherian]

News at 1.30pm and GU did revert back to scalp buy again - but did not enter being near news

 

[Forexmospherian]

The news was dollar negative - and even the AU as bounced up 15 pips from 8913 area

i will say the GU tricked me - I should have stayed with scalp buy 30% with stop at stop at low of 56 - but by going down under 61 to 58 - it did it job of putting me off the "buy" scent"

The market is extremely clever - aided by supercomputers trying to make sure you have difficulty staying with a direction - as shown there . Still I made a profit - but nothing like it should have been on my GU scalp trades ;-(

 

[Forexmospherian]

Off out in 10 minutes - as I leave still see EA bullish trying over 5435 - which is a R area.

Have a good US session - hope to be back before 5 00 pm

Regards

F

 

[tdezo]

this is what I don't get

4pips at 1.4m size =130 net
-1 pip at 600k size =-111 net
How can I overcome this
it feels like an uphill battle when this happens!

I can not figure it out not that I'm an expert on this type of things.
My guess: 1 st trade , you bought at Ask ,17 + spread , closed at Bid , 21- spread. If you broker spread spread is high , not much left in terms of money even if this position was 1.4 M . All of this without the effects of slippage !!!
2nd trade . Your long actual entry was 17 + spread , sold in red with added spread loss.
Triple loss , at entry /Ask/ ,in red at closing by numbers plus spread loss./ Bid/
Even after these detrimental bid/ ask charges this 2 trades profit loss numbers don't add up.
Would be nice if somebody could analyse and explain this case .