Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

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yet another day of losing overall. Despite making some good entries and exits, my losses are more often than not overwhelming any gains. Good entry points seem to pass in a moment yet opportunities for bad entry points exist for far longer. i cannot seem to get over these probabilities.
 
MajorMagnuM said:
yet another day of losing overall. Despite making some good entries and exits, my losses are more often than not overwhelming any gains. Good entry points seem to pass in a moment yet opportunities for bad entry points exist for far longer. i cannot seem to get over these probabilities.
Click to expand...

Hi MM

You answer yourself in your question posed ie

Good entry points seem to pass in a moment yet opportunities for bad entry points exist for far longer. i cannot seem to get over these probabilities

ie - BTTZ areas

Then next clue - how many scalps you average per hr ?

Normally your busy hrs will end with losses - as you tend to over scalp

Pace yourself (y)

Regards


F
 
All the action seemed to be after 8 09am and end of 8 00 pm TW - 1 hr after first news

With regards to the number of scalps you have taken today MM - check out when you were profitable etc

ie I average approx 10 -20 scalps per day.

If I had say 9 or 12 wins in a row - normally I would not carry on - or ensure my next 3 scalps I could only lose 10 pips max - otherwise I would stop for day

If I have got to say 10 scalps and 3 or 4 have been wrong - unless one of two of the other 6 /7 winners have given me over say 15 or 20 pips - I need to carry on - until I have a better win ratio or one of two trades at least given me 3 -4 times what i might lose - ie 15+ pips

A classic example would be a normal day of 13 -15 scalps with 3 wrong and over 50 pips

its no good me taking 20 + scalps and not having over 50 pips

Similar the win correlations as you know are not linear - they decline over time and focus - ie after 6 hrs I will not be performing as well as after 1 or 2 hrs normally

That's why I rarely go over 20 trades - with the exceptions being when its a real busy day and I am on a roll - ie July 4th 2013 and 24 trades and 407 pips in total

I just hope today MM - you have not been up say 25 or 30+ pips - and then lost them over another 6 or more scalps going wrong ??

I think its an area to fine tune and for you to pace yourself better - ie less than 4 trades per hr - ideally on 1 or 2 and not taking 40 + scalps a day etc - as you lose focus and you will be hitting BTTZ areas for maybe a few hrs over the day

Hope that helps

Regards


F
 
Thursday 18th September 2014 - Pre Opens

Good Morning all FX intraday Traders

Today is very important for Great Britain with Scotland Independence date

Expect a lot of false movements during the day on the GU and other Pound cross pairs - simply because today is a great excuse for catching all traders out with a perfect excuse etc

Normal stuff - updates and reviews on the pairs I plan to intraday trade

Please refresh the page every 30 seconds to keep up with all the comments in busy times

Also today - I might not be able to comment at times as one of my computers I use to blog on ( this one ) is playing up - and I need to either change it or get it checked out

Thankfully my trading computers and screens - seem to be all OK (y)

OK - have a great day

Regards

F
 
EU

7 04 am

Down yesterday evening to a new low at 2835 area - also a double bottom within 1 pip after midnight and then a bounce back up to the 2873 area before a HL at 2853

Since the 6 00 am TW we have had a scalp buy from 55 ish and now need to see over 2880 to hold it on and make a HH again

2870 -80 is now a R area - so would expect initial difficulty and so may be out scalp buy at 68 to 73 - looking for a scalp sell down to say 58 -60 - before a possible further scalp buy to test 70 -80

Any fall dropping under 2850 and then under 2833 would be holding scalp sells for lower and a test of 2820 before the big number at 2800
 
GU

had to repost this comment from 10 mins ago - as computer playing up and dying ( sods law )

From 6 21 am and approx 6260 we had the first play - with a big money buy dump

Price rose approx 60 pips in 30 mins, Did not catch half of it from 6 41 am - - but a lovely start for the morning

Be careful on the GU today - it will probably be my favourite - as I expect a lot of action over next 24 hrs - most of it false ;-)
 
GU

Basically we know if we get a NO vote - the GU should see a price rise - maybe back to 6500 area - but in the heat of battle - we could even see above 6600 etc

But meanwhile - whilst the YES vote could have a chance of winning - this throws in uncertainty - and therefore a perfect excuse to stick on large sells trying to get back down under 6000 to say 5700 - 5900 area

Normally you expect at least 200+ pip moves to take out larger stops - and in 2010 for last UK election day we had 600 pip moves that day and 1000 pip moves on the GJ - yes - all due to uncertainty - the players favourite excuse ;-)
 
EJ

7 28 am

This pair as been bullish and made 140 07 area this morning before pulling back to 139 86

Still in session bull mode above 139 65 - so look to re buy lower but under 65 and 60 - be in scalp sells for a larger fall

We now need to see above 140 10 and 25 whilst ideally staying above 70 /75
 
7 32 am

EU now at 2975 area - still in scalp buy and not been able to scalp sell yet - but 70 -80 is a R area and unless we clear over say 83 - I expect pullbacks soon

Above 2883 and 90 would hold scalp buys

No 83 - will be looking for scalp sells to re scalp buy around 2860 to 65 area

Under 60 and 50 stay with scalp sells for now - but we should not drop that low for now
 
GU

It does have good supports now in the 6275 -85 area - and use that area as like a line in the sand

Above - we should be able to favour scalp buys for back over 6300

Under hold scalp sells to test 6260 area again
 
EU


7 39 am

Stopped at 2882

I am out scalp buys - but can scalp buy again above 2870 or of we now go over 86

Under 73 and 67 favours more scalp sells for now
 
be-positive said:
Morning Pete ( thats the referendum vote in ballot box ) did you go long on EU 7.20 am bar ???
Click to expand...


Morning BP

Could have done - but was already in a scalp buy before hand and did not load up on it at 7 20 am but did at 7 22 am

I could scalp buy again here at 79 now - but out for 30 mins dropping son off

Now above 74 still scalp buys - but we do need now to see over 85 and 90 to hold scalp buys on longer

Have a good day and see you in a bit
 
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