I'm Nearly in THAT 90% Category

[forexpeters]

thats amazing

 

[Windowsill]

and of course when the complete novice gets a winning trade, you'll be down by the same amount.

The complete novice is trading at completely at random, and that means you are also trading at random, and so over time, you'll get the same results

Theres nothing wrong with randomly opening trades, but you dont need the time and trouble of roping in an accomplice, a coin will will do just fine.

I agree, but I don't think a complete novice with a little experience is completely random. However I'm not proposing this as a good system of trading either. Might work against vendors though!

My initial thoughts when commenting open the lack of success enjoyed by the thread starter was to look at the problem from a different angle.

Obviously there is a lot more to it than that, but thought is the most useful edge, it just needs a helping hand.

 

[Windowsill]

Firstly let us imagine that we weren't even talking about human beings but emotion free algo's, one algo sells and the other buys at the exact same time using market orders, and they both take profit and stop losses at ten pips. Does one win what the other loses? Absolutely not, because of the effects of slippage. It's more than possible, in fact it's common for there to be slippage on the buy side and not on the sell side, depending on available liquidity and volatility.


As far as a human trader finding he has a losing system and choosing to do the opposite, as Zupcon points out all you are doing is picking the other side of the coin. Because of the spread you pay you will lose in the long run. It's no different than the guy in a coin toss game seeing that after 100 flips he has picked heads and is 60:40 down, and deciding to swap and pick tails for the next 100 flips. Is he then going to automatically win 60:40 as he would have in the previous set of flips? Of course not!

This is pointless.

 

[virtuos0]

This is pointless.

Proving that someone is a twat is never pointless.

 

[virtuos0]

This has raised one interesting fact, and that is that assuming you take leverage out of the equation and just talk about entries and exits, and adjusting for the effects of spread/commision,it's exactly as hard to produce a consistently losing system as it is to produce a consistently winning system.

 

[Windowsill]

This has raised one interesting fact, and that is that assuming you take leverage out of the equation and just talk about entries and exits, and adjusting for the effects of spread/commision,it's exactly as hard to produce a consistently losing system as it is to produce a consistently winning system.

If you are a losing trader, I would still be happy to take the opposing trade and lose the odd winning one! If you are a winning trader, I would not.

Its as simple as that.

Let me know the next trade if you are a loser,but I'm sure your're not.

There was a member of this board who seemed to make a habit of fading members trades and winning!:smart:

 

[everyonerich]

wondered how is sangfroidFX doing now?

 

[HawkTrader]

wondered how is sangfroidFX doing now?

He's probably gone brankrupt on our advice.

 

[meanreversion]

His blood went a bit too cold.

 

[AppleInvestor]

This has raised one interesting fact, and that is that assuming you take leverage out of the equation and just talk about entries and exits, and adjusting for the effects of spread/commision,it's exactly as hard to produce a consistently losing system as it is to produce a consistently winning system.

The problem with most traders is that they think there's a "System," all they have to do is find the right system, learn it, employ it, make gobs of money. These losers think they need to be in the game all the time, if they're not in the game they're missing opportunities. To them, a missed opportunity is the same as a loss. Dumb asses.

There's no system, there's only observation, evaluation, and reaction. Just like real life. The other important thing is a man has to know his limitations. What I mean by this is, determine what type of trader you are, what is your tolerance and capacity for risk. Until you can answer these questions, you're doing nothing more than fighting the wind.

And like real life, the way you make money, they way you become a success, is to become skilled, develop discipline, and exploit opportunities. The more experience you garner, the less you'll need to trade.

-ernie
AppleInvestor

 

[everyonerich]

The problem with most traders is that they think there's a "System," all they have to do is find the right system, learn it, employ it, make gobs of money. These losers think they need to be in the game all the time, if they're not in the game they're missing opportunities. To them, a missed opportunity is the same as a loss. Dumb asses.

There's no system, there's only observation, evaluation, and reaction. Just like real life. The other important thing is a man has to know his limitations. What I mean by this is, determine what type of trader you are, what is your tolerance and capacity for risk. Until you can answer these questions, you're doing nothing more than fighting the wind.

And like real life, the way you make money, they way you become a success, is to become skilled, develop discipline, and exploit opportunities. The more experience you garner, the less you'll need to trade.

-ernie
AppleInvestor

i've seen there are people admit themselves willing to risk x amount of capital, but when they funded their live accounts they completely ignored what they've just said and attempting to target 50% gain a week, his account went bust in less than 2 weeks..

 

[oildaytrader]

There's no system, there's only observation, evaluation, and reaction. Just like real life. The other important thing is a man has to know his limitations. What I mean by this is, determine what type of trader you are, what is your tolerance and capacity for risk. Until you can answer these questions, you're doing nothing more than fighting the wind.

And like real life, the way you make money, they way you become a success, is to become skilled, develop discipline, and exploit opportunities. The more experience you garner, the less you'll need to trade.

-ernie
AppleInvestor

Risk tolerance depends on reward.Most have no idea what their reward potential is going to be.If a trader knew he was going to make 100k , he would risk 30k but if he did not know his reward he would risk 1 k and not trade properly.

Only by back testing ,forward testing and analysis will the trader know his reward.He has to know his systems thoroughly before writing programs to back test.

 

[Hilarymannah]

Hi sangfroidFX
post your entries and exits for the day and I'll have a look, and give you some constructive feedback!