Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 16th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook:Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight after shrugging off early losses, U.S. futures are also moving higher, but European markets are likely to continue to struggle with the weak USD. The EUR in particular has been pushed higher as markets run away with rate hike fears after last week’s ECB minutes, ignoring the hint that any change in the forward guidance will focus on net asset purchases, rather than the sequencing of exit steps, i.e. interest rates, which are still not expected to end until well after net asset purchases have been halted. Yields moved higher in Europe yesterday and stock markets struggled. Today’s focus will be on final inflation readings out of the Eurozone, but primarily key U.K. inflation data and a dip in the headline CPI rate is expected to 3.0% from 3.1% y/y in the previous month.

FX Update: USDJPY has lifted to the upper 110.0s after opening in Tokyo just under 110.50. There were some remarks of disquiet about yen strength from both finance minister, Aso, and the economy minister, Motegi, which followed a six consecutive session run lower in USDJPY that yesterday left a four-month low at 110.33. Japanese December PPI also came in a smidgeon shy of expectations, at 3.1% y/y, while another USDJPY supporting influence is a large USDJPY option structure with a 111.20 strike which is due to expire at the New York cut today. USDJPY posted an intra-day peak at 110.98. Resistance at 111.05-7, and support is at 110.29-30.


Main Macro Events Today

UK PPI- December PPI is penciled in at a 0.5% y/y, slower than the 1.8% previously.

UK CPI- A moderation is expected to 3.0% y/y after November’s 3.1% y/y clip, an outcome which would square with BoE projections.

US Empire State Manufacturing Index – The January Empire State manufacturing index should rise 1 point to 19 after falling 1.4 points to 18.0 in December.

SNB Chairman Jordan Speech.


Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets declined in Asia overnight in the wake of a correction on Wall Street Tuesday after the dollar recovered. The Nikkei closed down -0.35% the Hand Seng is down -0.16%. FTSE 100 futures are also in the red, but U.S. futures are slightly higher. 10-year yields picked up in the U.S. and Japan. Stock indices remain at high levels but recent advances have triggered warnings of overheating as focus turns to the earnings season and central banks. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation, which is expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB who are still reluctant to confirm to a final end date for QE just yet.

FX Update: EURUSD bottomed at 1.2196 early in the N.Y. session yesterday, before making its way to 1.2248 highs into the London close. The euro dropped sharply on political concerns in Germany, with some SPD factions reportedly uncertain, or in outright rejection, of proposals to form a grand coalition. This rattled EURUSD and euro crosses, which had been aggressively bid up in recent sessions. Potential for further fallout in Germany may keep euro bulls sidelined for the time being. Meanwhile, ECB speeches also put some pressure on the Euro. ECB hawk Weidmann suggests rate hike won’t come before 2019. The Bundesbank President once again stressed his preference to end net asset purchases this year, but at the same time repeated his effort to play down the risk of a rate hike already this year, which flared up after the release of the minutes. ECB Vice President Constancio eyes sudden movements in EUR. At the same time he, in line with other council members, tried to play down the implications of the minutes from the last meeting saying that even if the council sees the need for a gradual adjustment in the forward guidance “if the economy continues to grow and inflation continues to move” towards target, “this does not mean that changes will be immediate”. Constancio stressed that the ECB is not changing the path of its monetary policy, and that monetary policy will remain very accommodative for a long time.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone CPI – is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.4%y/y, while core is set to fall 0.9%y/y vs 1.1%y/y .

US Industrial Production – expected to rise 0.4% after the 0.2% November gain, to bring capacity utilization up to 77.2% from 77.1%

BoC Monetary Policy Report – A 25 bp hike to 1.25% is expected today. The Monetary Policy Report, should reveal a still cautiously upbeat growth outlook that is consistent with a gradual normalization path. Labour market slack and uncertainty kept the Bank of Canada (BoC) from implementing further rate hikes in October and December of last year. But recent economic reports suggest labour market slack has seen significant unwinding. Of course, uncertainties remain elevated, notably on the outlook for NAFTA.

FOMC Member Kaplan and Mester Speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight, with Nikkei and ASX 200 closing in the red, while Chinese shares rallied ahead of key data releases including GDP numbers. FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while 10-year JGB and Treasury yields slightly lower on the day, South Korea bonds rallied after the BoK held rates steady and warned of overheating in cryptocurrency markets. EGB yields moved marginally higher on Thursday, with Bunds outperforming after ECB officials tried to calm tightening concerns and keep a lid on the euro. Still, that the ECB is on the way to phase out net asset purchases this year is pretty clear, with the only question whether there will be an abrupt end in October, as the hawks are suggesting, or a gradual taper in Q4. Released overnight, U.K. RICS house price data came in stronger than expected. There are no other key data releases scheduled leaving the focus on the Bundesbank/IMF conference with speakers including Weidmann and Coeure, as well as French and Spanish bond auctions.

FX Update: The dollar edged out fresh recovery highs versus the euro and other currencies. EURUSD logged a four-session low of 1.2165 before recouping to around 1.2200. The move reflected a dollar dynamic, with EURJPY and other euro crosses having held relatively steady today, even though the airing of concerns about the common currency’s ascent by some ECB officials, along with concerns on the German political front, helped catalysed the correction from 37-month highs in EURUSD. USDJPY lifted to a four-session high of 111.48 in Tokyo today, extending the recovery from Wednesday’s four-month low at 110.19. The recovery broke a run of seven consecutive down . Good selling interest into 111.50 capped the advance, however. Equity markets also turned mixed-to-lower in Asia, despite Wall Street ascending to fresh highs, having been lifted by earnings and Apple’s announcement on a large cash repatriation. Elsewhere, USD-CAD has settled at near net unchanged levels relative to levels that were prevailing just ahead of yesterday’s BoC rate hike (which met expectations while be accompanied with cautious guidance). Sterling is the strongest currency on the day, posting a near 0.5% average gain versus the dollar, euro and yen in post-London close trading. Remarks from BoE MPC member Sauders warning that pay growth will accelerate in the UK during 2018 and that unemployment may drop to multi-decade lows under 4.0%, gave Hey Majesty’s currency a boost, reportedly encouraging interbank and near-term speculative accounts to run at sell stops in EUR-GBP.

Main Macro Events Today

US Housing Starts & Building Permits – Housing starts should fall to a 1.275 mln pace in December after November’s 3.3% surge to 1.297 mln, while Building permits expected at 1.290M from 1.298M seen on November.

US Jobless Claims – Unemployment claims is seen slightly lower at 250K than 261K last week.

US Crude Oil Inventories

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey – The Philly Fed index should fall to 25.0 in January from the upwardly revised 27.9 in December. The reading was at 24.1 a year ago, and was as high as 36.4 in 2011.

ECB Cœuré Speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher led by industrial and tech stocks and the Treasury yields climbed as investors nervously eye the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, as the federal spending authority is set to expire today, which weighed on the dollar. The Yen advanced, but the Nikkei still managed a 0.19% gain and the CSI 300 is up 0.50%. FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher, U.S. futures marginally in the red. Core EGB yields climbed with Treasury yields yesterday, but peripherals outperformed and Eurozone spreads narrowed amid signs that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to changes in the guidance, even as hawks slowly gain the upper hand. Today’s calendar has U.K. retail sales and Eurozone current account and BoP data after PPI numbers at the start of the session.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer on U.S. political concerns, though has remained above recent trend lows versus the yen, euro and most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.2%, making a low at 90.33 and swinging the 37-month low of Wednesday at 90.14 back into scope. The House of Reps passed the stopgap funding bill yesterday, and the vote now goes to the Senate, which has delayed its vote until later today and where there remains significant opposition to the bill. Republicans have been making amendments to the bill in an attempt to entice Democrat votes, but Democrats signalled that they have enough Senate opposition to stop the bill, which does not give sufficient concessions to them on immigration, government spending and other issues. According to the Washington Post, 39 Democrat and at least two GOP Senate members are known to be in opposition, leaving the bill short of the 60 votes needed to advance. This will be the dominant focus for markets today for market participants. Should the vote fail, government agencies will start shutting down from tomorrow — a scenario that would likely spark heavy dollar selling.

Main Macro Events Today

US Partial Government Shutdown

Swiss Product and Import Prices – should fall to a 0.4% in December after November’s 0.6%.

US Retail Sales – December retail sales expected to show a decline of 0.8% m/m (median -0.6% m/m), which would correct some of the 1.1% m/m gain that was seen in November.

Canadian Manufacturing Sales – manufacturing shipment values expected to rise 1.9% m/m after the 0.4% dip in October.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – expected to rise to 97.0 after the index slid 0.8 points to 95.9 in December, supported by the bull run in equities and the passage of the tax bill.

FOMC Member Quarles Speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd January 2017.

FX News Today

The immediate focus will be on the U.S. government which went on partial shutdown in the wee hours on Saturday as the Senate failed to pass a continuing resolution. Critical government services will remain open, though many will work without pay. And if the standoff lasts into Monday, thousands of workers will be furloughed. This situation is nothing new, with the last occurrence in 2013, and there’s no significant impact on the economy. Once past the shutdown hoopla, focus will return to a series of central bank meetings with the BoJ and ECB.

United States: In the U.S. the first FOMC meeting of 2018 is on the horizon, January 30, 31, but no changes are expected. This will be the last meeting chaired by Ms. Yellen, while it will include the new voting rotation with Williams, Mester, Bostic, and Barkin. Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for the Senate to confirm Jay Powell as the new Fed chairman. Meanwhile, the economic calendar includes a number of releases, headlined by the Advance Q4 GDP report and durable orders at the end of the week, along with housing stats. The slate kicks off with an update on the Chicago Fed national activity index (Monday), followed by the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday). MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), along with FHFA home prices, Markit PMIs and December existing home sales. Advanced goods trade deficit is forecast to narrow to -$69 bln in December (Thursday) from -$70 bln, while initial jobless claims are set to rebound 15k to 235k from 45-year lows of 220k for the January 20th week. New home sales are expected to ease 12.7% to a 640k pace in December from 733k highs (+17.5%) in November (Thursday) and leading indicators are on tap to rise 0.2% in December from 0.4% in November. The week rounds out with advance Q4 GDP (Friday) set to increase 2.8%, a tad slower than 3.2% in Q3.

Canada: the calendar is highlighted by the December CPI, but we also receive the final reports that inform the November GDP estimate. Wholesale trade begins the week (Monday), with an 1.0% gain expected for November shipment values following the 1.5% rise in October. Retail sales (Thursday) are expected to grow 1.2% in value terms during November after the 1.5% increase in October. The CPI (Friday) is projected to slow to a 1.9% y/y pace in December from 2.1% in November. November average weekly earnings (Thursday) are expected to edge 0.1% higher (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% dip in October. The January CFIB Business Barometer Survey of small and medium business sentiment is scheduled for release on Thursday.

Europe: The ECB meeting is the big event risk for this week. Speculation of a major shift in guidance has been running high since the release of the minutes and clearly the hawks at the council have been more vocal in the run up to the meeting. Still, Vice President Constancio stressed that while officials agreed that the guidance will have to change ahead of the end of the current QE program, he also stressed that this doesn’t have to happen immediately. And with officials fretting about the recent EUR strength, only small language changes and no firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, is expected. Still, it is clear that the ECB is on the way to phase out net asset purchases in the last quarter of this year, either in gradual steps, as the doves will favor, or by just stopping purchases from October onwards. Data releases, meanwhile, focus on an almost full round of confidence numbers, with PMI readings and German ZEW and Ifo surveys ion tap.

UK: The calendar this week brings monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday), the January CBI surveys on industrial trends and distributive sales (due Tuesday and Friday, respectively), the monthly labour market report (Wednesday), and the second estimate for Q4 GDP (Friday).

Japan: The BoJ announces its decision (Tuesday), and no change in rates or the policy stance is expected, despite the minor tweak to bond purchases made on January 9 when the Bank trimmed its purchases of longer dated JGBs. The markets may have gotten ahead of the BoJ’s timeline in terms of discussing normalization. As for data, the November all-industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in rising 0.8% on the month after the 0.3% October gain. The December trade report (Wednesday) should reveal a widening of the surplus to JPY 600.0 bln from 112.2 bln previously. December national CPI (Friday) should show the overall index rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from 0.6% previously, with the core reading at 1.0% y/y, from 0.9%. Tokyo January CPI (Friday) is expected unchanged at 1.0% y/y overall, and steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. December services PPI (Friday) will likely be unchanged at 0.8%

Australia: The calendar is empty of top tier economic data and Reserve Bank of Australia events. The Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6. The calendar is empty of top tier economic data and Reserve Bank of Australia events. The Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields quickly started to head south in early trade, amid a wider correction in 10-year yields across the U.S. Japan, China, Australia. The 10 year Bund yield is now down -0.2 bp at 0.561%, despite gains in European and U.S. stock futures, after equities rallied in Asia, on news that the U.S. government shutdown is ended and amid optimism about corporate earnings. The BoJ left policy unchanged, but sounded cautiously optimistic on inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index reached headed for fresh record highs, despite warnings of overheating as the IMF’s economic outlook confirmed that growth is already starting to slow down from high levels. Today’s local calendar has German ZEW investor confidence as well as U.K. public finance data and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey. Preliminary eurozone consumer confidence will be published in the afternoon.

FX Update: BoJ’s Kuroda sounded dovish at his post-meeting press conference. He said that the central bank will remain strongly committed to monetary easing, including QQE, until the 2% inflation target has been reached, which remains “far” from the case. He said that the BoJ remains committed to yield curve control and, downplaying the January-9 announcement of a trimming in long-dated JGB purchases, said that day-to-day operations are not an indication of future monetary policy. The yen declined by about 30 pips versus the dollar, and traded lower versus other currencies, in the wake of Kuroda’s remarks. Meanwhile, EURUSD bottomed at 1.2225 as news reports indicated there were enough Senate votes to pass spending legislation, ending the government shutdown. Senate has advanced a temporary spending bill in an 81-18 vote. This will refund the government thrugh February 8. The Senate still needs to vote on final passage of the CR, and then send it back to the House for its OK, which will be passed, according to leadership.

Main Macro Events Today

WEF Annual Meetings

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – should fall to £4.400B in December after November’s £8.118B.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment – expected to stabilise at 18.0 after falling to 17.4 in December underpinned by confidence in the global economy.

EU Consumer Confidence – preliminary Confidence expected to rise at 0.6 for January than 0.5 seen last month.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets mixed, with Japan under-performing and the Nikkei down -0.76%, while Chinese stocks moved sys and the ASX 200 rose 0.29%. A stronger yen and profit taking after the Japanese shares reached their highest level since 1991 on Tuesday weighed on Nikkei and Topix U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed after a strong session yesterday that was bolstered by the earnings season. The UK100 future is in the red. 10-year JGB yields are up 1.3 bp, 10-year Treasury yields up 0.6 bp, amid concerns about a widening trade deficit in the U.S. Oil prices held near the highest since December 2014. A more cautious mood then in markets as the focus in Europe shifts to the ECB meeting tomorrow. Today’s calendar includes preliminary Eurozone PMI readings as well as U.K. labour market data.

FX Update: The dollar has come under fresh pressure. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) traded at fresh three-year lows, logging a nadir at 89.83 and bringing cumulative loss on the year so far to 13%. EURUSD logged a 37-month high of 1.2335, while USDJPY traded below 110.00 for the first time since last September, posting a low at 109.80. Cable forayed further into post-Brexit vote high territory, seeing a peak at 1.4049. NZDUSD posted a new trend high, while AUDUSD came within a whisker of doing so. In the U.S, Jerome Powell was confirmed by a Senate vote as the new Fed chairman, from February 3, and, being a policy moderate by reputation, is expected to maintain Yellen’s gradualist approach to tightening. Japanese data today included a strong export figure in December trade data and a four-year high in the preliminary manufacturing PMI survey, of 54.4 — adding to the global growth narrative, although the stock market rally has sputtered somewhat in Asia. We advise trend following with regard to the dollar.

Main Macro Events Today

German Markit PMI – is seen falling back slightly to 63.0 from 63.3 and the services reading to 55.6 from 55.8, leaving the composite at a still very high 58.6, and just slightly lower than the 58.9 in December.

EU Manufacturing PMI – is seen falling back slightly to 60.3 from 60.6 and the services reading to 56.4 from 56.6, leaving the composite at a still very high 57.9, and just slightly lower than the 58.1 in December.

UK Earnings and Unemployment Data – an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3% in the official ILO November reading is expected, with average household incomes expected to rise 2.5% y/y in the three months to November.

US Existing Home Sales- December existing home sales seen slipping back 3.6% to 5.72 mln from November highs of 5.81 mln

US Crude Oil Inventories

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, led by Japan with the Nikkei losing -1.13%, as the dollar was further pressured by U.S. rhetoric on USD and trade. U.S. stock futures are down in tandem with FTSE 100 futures as the focus turns to the ECB meeting today as a strong data round so far this week has rekindled concerns of a major shift in guidance. The strong PMI readings out of the Eurozone and the rise in U.K. employment numbers coupled with a stronger pound saw U.K. bond markets underperforming yesterday and yields surging higher led by Gilts, while the FTSE 100 underperformed amid a wider dip in equities. With the pound remaining strong and the ECB meeting hanging over markets we are unlikely to see a major correction during the AM session and ahead of key surveys in the form of the German Ifo and the U.K. Distributive trade survey. Meanwhile we expect Draghi to continue to move cautiously, although that the ECB is heading for an exit from QE this year is pretty clear.

FX Update: USDJPY is down for a third straight day, this time logging a four-month low of 108.73. Broader dollar declines has once again been driving, with the buck making fresh lows versus a range of other currencies. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been trading comparatively steadily. Stock markets in Asia have come off the boil amid concerns about Trump’s protectionist bent, and after his Treasury Secretary’s verbal embracement, yesterday, of the weakening dollar trend, which many are calling the “Mnuchin Moment”. The dollar, which is down for a fifth consecutive quarter, which is the most protracted decline since 2007-8, is posting its biggest monthly loss in over two years. There at signs that this is causing some consternation in Asia, with a Bloomberg report today citing South Korean policymaker has affirming that “excessive” movements in USD-KRW are being “monitored.”

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference – 12:45 and 13:30 GMT – Asset purchasing is ending – but when and how is the Hawk/Dove Debate – how will Draghi play this with and appreciating EUR ?

German Ifo – Expectations – a slight dip in the reading to 117.0 from 117.2

Canadian Retails Sales – Expectations – Decrease to 0.7% from 1.5% last time

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed. Japanese shares dipped as the yen bounced back against the dollar ahead of a speech by U.S. President Trump in Davos. The Nikkei is down 0.16%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 meanwhile are up 1.46% and 0.64% respectively while Australia was closed for a holiday. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher, bond markets are equally mixed and while 10-year Treasury yields are slightly higher, 10-year JGB’s corrected -0.7 bp. Bund futures continued to move up from the lows seen in the wake of Draghi’s presser yesterday and with reports that some at the ECB want to wait until June before tweaking the guidance, Eurozone yields should continue to stabilise, after yesterday’s surge higher. While Eurozone markets will continue to digest yesterday’s presser, U.K. markets have the first reading of Q4 GDP, with growth seen steady at 0.4% q/q, which would bring the annual rate down to 1.4% y/y from 1.7% y/y.ta.

Japan’s CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in December from a 0.6% y/y pace in November. The core rate (which excludes food) grew 0.9% y/y in December after a matching gain in November. The growth rate of the national and core CPI came in as expected in December. Tokyo core CPI improved to a 1.3% y/y pace in January from a 1.0% y/y pace in December. The core Tokyo CPI slowed to a 0.7% y/y pace from 0.8%. USDJPY has dipped to 109.44 from 109.72, but remains above the 108.52 low seen during North American trading, which gave way to a sharp gain over 109.50 after Trump said the dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and that ultimately he want to see a strong dollar. His comments contrasted with Mnuchin’s “weak dollar ok” comments that had knocked the greenback lower against a broad suite of currencies. The Nikkei is 0.2% firmer, the Hang Seng is up 0.8% and China’s CSI 300 is 0.3% higher. It was a mixed session on Wall Street Wednesday, as the Dow rose 0.5% to a fresh record 26,392.79, the S&P 500 inched 0.06% higher to a record 2839.25 while the Nasdaq fell 0.05%.

Main Macro Events Today

UK GDP- Q4 GDP expected to come in unrevised from the preliminary estimated growth readings of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.

US GDP and Durable Goods – Q4 GDP set to increase 3.0%, a tad slower than 3.2% in Q3. Durable goods orders are projected to rise 0.8% in December vs 1.3% in November, or +0.5% ex-transportation.

Canadian CPI and Core CPI – the CPI is projected to slow to a 1.9% y/y pace in December from 2.1% in November, as the index drops 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% bounce in November.

BoE Carney and BoJ Kuroda Speech at 14:00 GMT

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th January 2017.

FX News Today

President Trump stressed “when the United States grows, so does the world,” in Friday’s WEF Davos speech. That sentiment was illustrated last week as the IMF revised its 2017 global growth forecast up to 3.7%, and to 3.9% for 2018 and 2019, citing in part the stimulative impact from the U.S. tax cuts. This year’s growth would be the fastest and broadest since 2011 when the world was recovering from the financial crisis. This week’s slate of events and data should further underpin the current theme of improved global growth.

United States: The U.S. has a very full slate of events and data as the first month of 2018 comes to an end. However, it’s not clear any will have significant impact on current market trends of rising stocks and yields, and a weaker dollar. The calendar includes an FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), President Trump’s State of the Union (Tuesday), the Treasury refunding announcement (Wednesday), and key data culminating with the January jobs report (Friday). Earnings will be announced all through the week (this is the heaviest week of the season).President Trump will deliver his first State of the Union on Tuesday. Reports are that most of his speech will cover domestic issues, and especially his trillion dollar infrastructure plans. A $716 bln request for defense spending was leaked last week, and later confirmed by the White House. Meanwhile, the government will quickly have to revisit the potential for another government shutdown as the current continuing resolution expires February 8. Additionally, the Treasury is quickly running out of borrowing authority, perhaps as soon as early March. With that threat overhanging, the debt managers will announce Q1 and Q2 financing projections (Monday) ahead of the February refunding (Wednesday).

The data calendar is loaded with many of the key reports for the month and will give early reads on various sectors of the economy at the start of 2018. As always, the nonfarm payroll release (Friday) will be the highlight. December personal income and consumption (Monday) will help fine tune GDP forecasts, though they will be a bit anti-climactic after the Q4 GDP report last Friday.The PCE price data will be crucial. It’s the figure the FOMC uses, and the headline index is likely to edge up 0.1%, though the core should increase 0.2%. The Q4 employment cost numbers will be an important update on wages and benefits. Q4 productivity and unit labor costs (Thursday) will also be awaited. Also important is the manufacturing ISM report. U.S. manufacturing has seen a resurgence and has become quite robust globally.Along with those numbers, other releases this week include the January ADP report (Wednesday). Consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely increased to 125.0 from 122.1 thanks to passage of the tax legislation and the ongoing gains on Wall Street.

Canada: Canada’s calendar is one of the few lean ones this week. November GDP (Wednesday), the only top tier report, is expected to rise 0.3% (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in October. Retail, manufacturing, and wholesale shipment volumes improved in November, while the outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive. The industrial product price index, also due Wednesday, is projected to drop 0.5% in December (m/m, nsa) after the 1.4% gain in November, as gasoline prices declined, commodity prices eroded and the loonie strengthened. The MLI leading indicator for December and the January Markit Canada manufacturing PMI are due Thursday.

Europe: it’s a very busy week for the Eurozone calendar. But with data likely to give both doves and hawks something over which to argue, the numbers are unlikely to change the overall outlook for the ECB going forward. This week’s data calendar has preliminary inflation stats for January, the final set of confidence data in the form of the ESI and preliminary Q4 GDP numbers. The Eurozone GDP growth (Tuesday) for Q4 expected to show a slight deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q3. Looking ahead confidence remains very strong and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is seen rising to 116.3 from 106.0, after preliminary consumer confidence jumped higher and composite PMI numbers also surprised on the upside.

UK: Fundamental and political positives have been combining to support what is the most positive investor sentiment toward the UK since the vote to leave the EU in 2016.On the economic front, the preliminary estimate of UK Q4 GDP beat expectations, which followed labour market data showing an unexpected 102k surge in UK employment. On the political front, there are also expectations for the EU and UK officials to agree on a post-Brexit transition period, most likely before the EU leaders’ summit in March. The UK calendar this week features December monthly lending data from the BoE (Wednesday), the January Gfk consumer confidence (Thursday), and the January Markit manufacturing and construction PMI surveys (Thursday and Friday, respectively).

Japan: December unemployment (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 2.7%, while the job offers/seekers ration should nudge up to 1.57 from 1.56. December personal income and PCE are due Tuesday, with the latter expected up 1.0% y/y from 1.7% in November. December retail sales (Tuesday) should rise 2.4% y/y from 2.2% overall, and increase 0.5% from 1.4% for large retailers. Preliminary December industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.5% y/y from 0.5%, while January consumer confidence (Wednesday) should tick up to 46.0 from 45.7. December housing starts (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 0.2% from -0.4%. December construction orders are also due Wednesday. Thursday brings the January Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI, which is forecast to rise to 54.5 from 54.0.

China: releases the official CFLP January manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, which is expected to improve to51.7 from 51.6. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is see at 51.8 from 51.5.

Australia: Q4 CPI (Wednesday) is seen accelerating to a 0.8% pace (q/q, sa) from the 0.6% pace in Q3. The CPI is anticipated to pick-up to a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 1.8% y/y in Q3. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. The Bank meets next week, and no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is anticipated. Import prices (Thursday) are expected to rebound 2.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.6% drop in Q3. Export prices (Thursday) are projected to rebound 3.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 3.0% drop in Q3.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Equities sold off in Asia overnight, U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also in the red, as yields continue to rise. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 2.7% as yields rise to the highest since 2014, setting Bunds on course to tackle the 0.7% mark for the first time since 2015. Investors are gearing up for the Fed decision and dwindling central bank support even as Draghi and the doves at the ECB try to calm nerves and reduce speculation of quick changes in guidance. Tech stocks started the sell off in Asia that saw the Nikkei losing 1.43% as the Yen strengthened. The Hang Seng is down -1.06%, the ASX 200 down -0.87%. Oil prices are down on the day and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 64.87 per barrel.

French Q4 GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% q/q, while Q3 was revised down fro 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q reported initially. The annual rate accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.3% y/y in the third quarter of 2017. A slightly stronger quarterly number than we expected, but a tad stronger than Bloomberg consensus. The breakdown showed a sharp acceleration in export growth while import growth slowed down, in tandem with consumption growth, which fell back to 0.3% q/q from 0.6% q/q. Gross Fixed Capital Formation rose 1.1% q/q, versus 0.9% q/q in the previous quarter. A surprisingly sluggish consumer sector for the French economy, which tends to be led by consumption and domestic demand, while strong export growth and ongoing investment growth is encouraging, especially as confidence numbers also point to ongoing improvements also on the labour market. A good signal then for overall Eurozone growth and the hawks at the ECB, which argue that the strength of the economy doesn’t need a further expansion of monetary support.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Q4 GDP – expected to show a slight deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q3. Growth momentum remains very robust and part of the decline is likely to have been due to special calendar factors.

Eurozone ESI – The Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator is seen rising to 116.3 in January from 106.0. Already released preliminary consumer confidence jumped higher and composite PMI numbers also surprised on the upside, pointing to ongoing improvements in sentiment, which keeps growth on track to continue to expand at the start of 2018 and will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB which seem to have been pushing for a change in guidance already at the last meeting.

CB Consumer Confidence – Consumer confidence likely increased to 125.0 from 122.1 thanks to passage of the tax legislation and the ongoing gains on Wall Street.

FOMC meeting starts today

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets started to stabilise in Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are little changed, the ASX 200 closed with a gain of 0.25%, but Japanese markets remained under pressure as the yen rose against the dollar and Nikkei and Topix dropped -0.83% and -1.15% respectively. U.K. stock futures are also in the red amid dollar weakness, but U.S. futures are recovering after yesterday’s decline. Investors had been taking profit as the months draws to a close and warnings over the vulnerability of markets to major corrections are getting louder, while confidence in the global growth outlook and improvements in corporate profits are underpinning sentiment. 10-year yields declined in Asia and the 10-year Treasury yield is also down -1.1 bp but holds above 2.7% as the focus turns to the FOMC announcement. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading around the USD 64 per barrel mark, while industrial metals reversed losses. Released overnight, U.K. GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the European calendar has inflation data for Spain, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as German and Eurozone labour market data,

Australia’s CPI improved to a 1.9% y/y pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from 1.8% in Q3. CPI grew 0.6% (m/m, sa) after an 0.6% gain in Q3. Both the annual and quarterly comparable gains slightly undershot projections. Growth in the annual core CPI measures was steady or faster: the trimmed mean CPI was 1.8% y/y in Q4 from 1.8% y/y in Q3. The weighted median CPI improved to 2.0% y/y in Q2 from 1.9% y/y in Q4. A gradual improvement is seen in the CPI, but growth rates remain either just below or at the bottom of the RBA’s 2.0% to 3.0% target band. The report is consistent with widespread expectations for the RBA to hold rates steady next week at 1.50%.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Unemployment – German jobless figure falling to -17K in January, leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless number unchanged at a very low 5.5% y/y, while the Eurozone jobless rate for December is seen falling back to 8.7% y/y.

Eurozone CPI- is seen at 1.3% y/yfrom 1.4% y/y.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Private payrolls are projected to have risen 185k after the better than expected 250k climb in December.

Canadian GDP – November GDP is expected to rise 0.3% (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in October.

Crude Oil Inventories – expected at 0.1M barrels from 1.1M reported last week.

FOMC Statement & FED Rates – No changes are expected.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st February 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets mixed, with Japan outperforming after a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI reading, that still left the yen lower. The Nikkei is up 1.684%, the Topix gained 1.84 and the ASX 200 closed with a gain of 0.87%, but Chinese stocks headed south, as the Caixin China manufacturing PMI held steady in January and investors remain cautious as the lunar new year comes into view. Overall though Asian equities started February on a positive note after three days of sell off and following a late recovery on U.S. markets, after the FOMC seemed to set the stage for a rate hike in March yesterday with a statement that saw yields climbing higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 2.75% before falling back and is currently at 2.729%, up 2.4 bp. 10-year JGBs are up 1.5 bp at 0.090%, but stock markets seem to be adapting to higher yields and U.S. stock futures are moving higher as are FTSE 100 futures.

FX Update: The has dollar has traded firmer in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC announcement, which brought the expected no-change decision in policy settings but was accompanied by upgrades in the Fed’s growth and inflation projections. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is up 0.6% from four-session yesterday’s low at 88.78, logging a high of 89.31. EURUSD has clocked a two-day low at 1.2384 and USDJPY has lifted to a one-week high of 109.61. Wall Street managed to recover from weakness seen in the initial wake of the Fed’s guidance, while Asian stock markets, outside the case of Chinese markets, rallied. January manufacturing PMI reading out of Japan rose to 54.8 from 54.0, with new order growth at a four-year high, The Caixin manufacturing PMI for China met expectations at 51.5, unchanged from December.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – are likely to confirm preliminary numbers and confirm that while the headline rate fell back slightly in January, job creation remains strong.

U.K. Manufacturing PMI – expected to come in with a headline reading of 56.5 after 56.3 in December, and the construction PMI at 52.0 after 52.2 in the month prior

US ISM Manufacturing PMI – It’s likely to dip 0.5 points to 58.8 after jumping to 59.3 in December.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are climbing higher in opening trade, with the 10-year trading at 0.726%, up 1.1 bp on the day, after the 10-year Treasury yield nearly touched 2.8% yesterday in the wake of the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDPNow estimate. The BoJ tried to ease the pressure on bond markets by stepping in with fresh purchase offers, and Treasury yields are also slightly down from the highs seen late yesterday. In Europe meanwhile ECB’s Nowotny added fresh pressure with a renewed call for an end to asset purchases, which he said will also see long yields rising. 2-year Schatz yields are up 0.2 bp at -0.554%, the 5-year is up 0.4 bp at 0.097%, leaving the curve steeper. Peripheral 10-year bonds are underperforming, and DAX and CAC 40 futures are heading south, as long yields rise and the EUR is trading above 1.25 against the dollar. FTSE 100 futures meanwhile pared earlier gains and are moving sideways. U.S. futures are mostly down, after a mixed session in Asia, where the BoJ’s action didn’t prevent a correction in equity markets.

FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses continued to gain today, with the Japanese currency underperforming concomitantly with the BoJ ramping up JGB purchases under its yield curve control framework to keep the 10-year yield at 0%. USDJPY clocked a nine-day high of 109.82, and EURJPY stormed to a 30-month high of 137.24. The BoJ bought Y450 bln of 5- to 10-year JGBs today, offering to buy unlimited quantities of 10-year paper. Reuters cited a BoJ official confirming that the actions enable the BOJ to firmly adhere to its current policy, and that it took steps after “large increase” in yields. The “large increase” was apparently the 10-year JGB yield having nudged above 0.1%. Other factors driving the yen lower include the rekindling of the global stock market rally and higher dollar yield advantage in USDJPY, following the Fed’s upgraded growth and inflation forecasts this week. Elsewhere, the euro has been showing moderate outperformance, led by the strong gain in EUR-JPY. EURUSD logged a high at 1.2523 late yesterday, and today found demand on dips under 1.2500. Last week’s 38-month high at 1.2537 is back within spitting distance.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – are likely to fell slightly in January, down to 52.00 from 52.2 seen last month.

U.K. NFP & Unemployment rate – expected to increase by 180K from 148K,while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.1% in October.

US UoM Consumer Sentiment – The final January consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan likely improved to 95.0 compared to the 94.4 preliminary.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th February 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

It was a wild ride last week which ended with a devilish 666 point drop on the Dow and a 6.5 bp surge in the 30-year Treasury bond rate. The bearish tone was not isolated to Wall Street as all almost indexes were down with losses ranging from 1% to nearly 5%. Bond yields were generally higher too, led by the 30-year Treasury’s 15 bp climb to 3.08%. Factors weighing on the markets were worries over central bank tightening, potentially rising inflation, disappointing earnings, technical, and bearish momentum. However, selloffs have been expected given record highs on equities and still low rates on bonds, so it’s no time to panic. Fundamentals remain bullish and the FOMC isn’t going to panic by accelerating its policy path. However, all is not lost. Friday’s 666 point decline pales in comparison to the near 7200 point gain since President Trump’s election. Fundamentals point to strong economic growth this year, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate pointing to a 5.4% rate of growth in Q1.

United States: Markets are likely to remain shaky as the new week begins with buyers waiting for the dust to settle before stepping back in. Though the “Nunes memo” wasn’t the catalyst for the plunge on Wall Street, it did keep potential dip buyers away. The most important indicator will be the January services ISM (Monday), expected to edge up to 57.0 (median 56.6) from a revised 56.0 in December. The trade deficit (Tuesday) should widen for a fifth straight month, to -$52.7 bln (median -$52.0 bln)from -$50.5 bln. Net exports were a big drag in the recent Q4 GDP report, though which was a function of a large increase in imports, reflective of the strength in consumption. Other releases include December JOLTS (Tuesday), consumer credit (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday), and wholesale trade (Friday). earnings season continues with Pharma’s, Disney and BP taking centre stage. Fedspeak continues and new Chair Powell takes the hot seat officially.

Canada: January employment (Friday), expected to show a 20.0k gain after the 78.6k surge in December and 79.5k rise in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.7%, which is the lowest for the current series that goes back to 1976. Wages will again be in the spotlight, with the average hourly wage projected to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December. The trade balance (Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -C$2.1 bln in December from -C$2.5 bln in November. Export values are seen growing 2.0% m/m after the 3.7% surge in November. Housing starts (Thursday) are anticipated to slow further to a 210.0k unit pace in January from 217.0k in December. Building permits (Wednesday) are projected to expand 2.0% in December after the 7.7% tumble in November. The December new home price index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m after the 0.1% gain in November. The January Ivey PMI is due (Tuesday).

Europe: The calendar quiets after last week’s flurry of releases, giving traders a lot of time to assess the volatile market conditions. And the few reports on tap won’t change the overall outlook for the economy, or the ECB. Growth surprised on the upside in 2017 and while confidence data remains robust, we expect a slowdown in momentum this year with political risks, including Italian elections and Brexit talks, looming on the horizon. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders (Tuesday), seen rebounding in December and rising 0.4% m/m (median 0.7%) after correcting -0.4% m/m in November. German industrial production for December (Wednesday), meanwhile, is seen falling -0.8 m/m (median -0.6%) after much stronger than expected growth of 3.4% m/m in November. Finally, Germany has December trade (Wednesday) and overall data are expected to confirm a slight deceleration in the quarterly GDP growth rate in Q4. For the Eurozone as a whole, the final readings of services and composite PMIs are expected to confirm preliminary readings of 57.6 and 58.6, respectively, signaling a robust pace of expansion at the start of 2018. The calendar also has Eurozone December retail sales, French and Italy production numbers, French trade and Italian inflation.

UK: The pound closed out January with just over a net 5.0% gain against the dollar, the biggest monthly advance Her Majesty’s currency has seen since July 2010. The outperformance was driven by expectations for the BoE to make a hawkish shift in policy guidance at its MPC meeting this week. the February meeting of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting (announcing Thursday), which will be accompanied by the release of the central bank’s quarterly inflation report. While the BoE is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.5% and QE totals unchanged, the meeting is likely to mark a sea change in approach after BoE Governor Carney last week forewarned that the central bank is beginning to turn its focus to a more conventional stance of limiting inflation. The inflation report is likely see the BoE upgrade its growth assessment, particularly the scope for self-sustaining private sector growth while highlighting a tightening labour market and rising wages. As for inflation, the marked ascent in the pound will likely see the BoE downgrade nearer-term CPI projections, but at the same time note increasing risk for second round inflationary pressures as labour markets tighten and spare capacity shrinks. The BoE will also likely point to factory selling prices having hit their highest rate of gain since 1984.Data this week includes the release of the January services PMI (Monday), which will follow sub-forecast construction and manufacturing PMI surveys for the same month. We expect the headline services PMI to dip slightly, to 54.0 (median same) from 54.2 in December. Production data for December is also up this week (Friday), where we anticipate a 0.9% m/m decline

Japan: The December current account surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to JPY 1,000 bln from 1,347 bln. January bank loan figures are also due Thursday. The December tertiary industry index (Friday) should rise 0.5% m/m from the prior 1.1% rise.

China: The January trade report (Thursday) should reveal a narrowed $53.0 bln surplus, from $54.7 in December. January CPI (Friday) is penciled in at up 1.6% y/y from 1.8%, while January PPI (Friday) should ease to 4.3% y/y from 4.9%. Services PMI was up significantly earlier at 54.7.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday) is the focus. We expect no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. The Bank’s quarterly statement on monetary policy will be released (Friday), which will detail the current growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks (Thursday) at the A50 Australian Economic Forum dinner in Sydney. The trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to improve to -A$100 mln in December from -A$628 mln in November. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen falling 0.5% (m/m, sa) in December after the 1.2% bounce in November. Housing investment (Friday) is projected to drop 2.0% (m/m, sa) in December after the 2.1% jump in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2017.

FX News Today

Asian Wrap : The sell off in stock markets deepened in Asia overnight, with Nikkei, Topix and Hang Seng loosing more than 4%, the ASX 200 more than 3%, the CSI nearly 3%. With this level of correction bond markets benefited from a flight to safety and yields declined markedly, after yesterday’s fresh move higher. With the global equity rout deepening, the question is will central bankers take note and with the change at the top of the Fed speculation that the sell off will halt the rise in rates is mounting. In Japan Kuroda told parliament that it would be inappropriate to raise the yield target even by a small margin. Meanwhile focus has shifted to plunge in a popular exchange traded fund, that was designed to bet against volatility and tanked in after hour trade.

FX Update: The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged a two-week high at 89.72 before settling around the 89.50 mark, which is still just over 1% from the low seen last Friday. USDJPY clocked an eight-day low at 108.50 as Asia as the yen continued to find safe haven bids as global stock markets continued to head south. Driving risk aversion is spiking sovereign yields and the concomitant rise inflation expectations and prospects for the Fed to lead key central banks to take away monetary policy stimulus. Expectations are for USDJPY to grind lower over the coming days and weeks, though see risk of there being greater magnitude of declines in AUDJPY, which tends to correlate strongly with global stock market direction. Today’s strongest currency is the NZD ahead of tomorrows rate decision.

German Factory Orders: German manufacturing orders jumped 3.8% m/m in December, much more than anticipated and with November revised up to -0.1% m/m from -0.4% m/m reported initially. An exceptionally strong number that points to ongoing strong growth in manufacturing. The statistical office reported that the main impulses came from export orders and here mainly orders from other Eurozone countries, which jumped sharply higher at the end of the year.

Main Macro Events Today

US Trade Balance – a further fall to $-52.0 bln from $-50.5bln for the December number

CAD Ivey PMI – Expected to rise from 60.4 to 61.0

NZD Jobs Data – Q4 Employment Change (No Change expected -0.2%) , Unemployment (No Change expected 4.6%) and Participation Rate (a fall to 70.8% from 71.1%)


Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are higher in early trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.7% as of 7:28GMT, the 2-year up 0.4 bp at -0.576%, leaving the curve steeper once again as European stock futures move higher, with the DAX future leading the way and up 0.86% after a late rally on Wall Street yesterday. Asian markets also tried to recovered, but the rally started to fizzle out later in the session as rate hike concerns resurfaced and while the Nikkei managed a small gain of 0.16%, the CSI 300 closed with a loss of -2.37%. The relationship between bond and stock markets remains ambiguous but for now improving risk appetite is underpinning stocks and the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral bond markets, versus Bunds. Released at the start of the session, German industrial production corrected -0.6% m/m in December, broadly in line with expectations after a 3.1% m/m rise in November.. Still to come are U.K. house price numbers and a German 10-year auction.

FX Update: The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Wall Street staged a solid rebound yesterday, and Eurostoxx futures are pointing to a positive open on European bourses, though S&P futures have shed 0.8% in overnight trade and Asian markets turned lower, giving back intraday gains and turning negative in some cases. Japan’s Nikke 225 closed with a fractional 0.2% gain, while the Shanghai Composite is showing a loss of 1.8%, and South Korea’s KOSPI a 2.3% loss. This backdrop saw USDJPY and yen crosses grind lower, giving back some of the rebound gains seen yesterday during Wall Street’s rebound. Volatility is likely to remain high in the coming sessions, and we expect to see further dollar and yen outperformance relative to most other currencies.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
Crude Oil Inventories
Canadian Building Permits – projected to expand 2.0% in December after the 7.7% tumble in November.
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement – The 1.75% policy setting expected to be left in place.
RBNZ Press Conference at 21:00 GMT


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th February 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th February 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with the CSI 300 underperforming once again and heading south, while the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.13%, the ASX 200 moved up a further 0.24% and the Hang Seng 0.58% as of 6:35GMT. The yuan dropped after trade figures missed estimates and amid speculation that policy makers will move to rein in gains. Overnight, RBNZ held steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. Governor Spencer remained dovish, saying “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly. NZDUSD has fallen to 0.7209 from 0.7258 ahead of the Bank’s announcement. Meanwhile today,German trade surplus narrowed as export growth slowed. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 21.5 bln in December, down from EUR 22.3 bln in the previous month. Exports rose just 0.3% m/m, after jumping 4.1% m/m in December, while import growth slowed to 1.4% m/m from 2.2% m/m. The December number left the total for Q4 at EUR 63.7 bln, up from EUR 62.4 bln in the third quarter of the year, which points to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the last quarter, even if this is nominal data, impacted by exchange rate developments.

FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold, albeit a fragile looking one. USDJPY logged a peak at 109.78, extending the rebound from Monday’s low at 108.45. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been seeing a similar price action, including AUDJPY. Japanese data showed the current account data for December at a surplus of Y797.2 bln, down from Y1,347.3 bln in the month prior. BoJ Suzuki said that there is no need for further monetary easing, contrasting in tone to Governor Kuroda, who earlier in the week said that there is no need to think about taking monetary stimulus away with inflation remaining below 1% and well off the BoJ’s 2% target. China January trade data came in much stronger than expected, though a near 40% export survey drove a sharp narrowing in the surplus, prompting the PBoC to guid the CNY lower today after the currency hit a two-year high yesterday. EURUSD lifted back toward 1.2300, reversing some of the losses seen yesterday after ECB’s Nowotny accused the U.S. Treasury of talking the dollar down.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe Speech

BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting & Inflation Report – The BoE is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.5% and QE totals unchanged, the meeting is likely to mark a sea change in approach after BoE Governor Carney last week forewarned that the central bank is beginning to turn its focus to a more conventional stance of limiting inflation. The inflation report is likely see the BoE upgrade its growth assessment, particularly the scope for self-sustaining private sector growth while highlighting a tightening labour market and rising wages.

Canadian Housing Starts – projected to slow further to a 210.0k unit pace in January from 217.0k in December.

US Unemployment Claims – expected to rise to 232k from 230k in the week-ended January 27.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th February 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th February 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are oscillating around the 0.76% mark in opening trade, little changed from yesterday, the 2-year Schatz yield is steady at -0.56%, and while at the short end peripherals are outperforming, at the long end spreads are little changed. With the stock correction ongoing there remains hope that it will prompt a rethink at central banks, although the BoE’s hawkish statement yesterday highlighted that this may not be the case and officials elsewhere have so far also remained pretty calm. UK100 and CAC 40 futures are in the red after a negative session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed down more than 2%, but GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Stocks continued to sell off in Asia, after Wall Street plunged. China’s push for deleveraging and broader concerns about rising interest rates has seen markets correcting more than 10% so far with no real sign of intervention from authorities.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar . USDJPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss on Wall Street, before rebounding. The marked widening in the U.S. 10-year Treasury over JGB yield spread this week has gotten mention in market narratives as being behind the rebound in USDJPY, although the pair remains nearly 1% down on the week. The U.S. Senate passed the budget and stopgap funding bill, although too late to prevent a government shutdown, which, assuming the House follows suits and passes the bill before midday, will make the shutdown a very short-lived affair. The episode didn’t appear to have had much bearing on the dollar. Sterling, which corrected sharply following its post-BoE gains of yesterday, rallied after remarks by MPC member Broadbent in a BBC radio interview earlier, where he said that a couple of 25 bp rate hikes this year wouldn’t be a great shock to the economy. Cable hit an intraday high of 1.3978, but has remained well off the post-BoE peak at 1.4067. AUDUSD hit a six-week low at 0.7759 following the release of the RBA’s latest SOMP, which took aim at the Australian dollar while trimming employment forecasts.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manufacturing Production – Production data for December anticipated at 0.9% m/m decline in the industrial output reading after a 0.4% gain in the month prior, and a 0.3% gain in the narrower manufacturing production measure, which is seen a better gauge of underlying production trends, after an outsized 2.5% m/m in the month prior.

UK Goods Trade Balance – is expected to narrow to £-11.6B bln in December from £-12.2 bln in November.

Canadian Employment Change – expected to show a 20.0k gain after the 64.8k surge in December and 81.2k rise in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.8%. Wages will again be in the spotlight, with the average hourly wage projected to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th February 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th February 2018.

FX News Today

Volatility had mostly expired under the boot of the Federal Reserve QE policy stance and that of its central banking brethren. But as central bankers have begun to take their foot pedal by undertaking quantitative tapering and tightening, vol has proven that it’s “not dead yet,” but merely dormant until the appropriate moment.Looking ahead, input from around the globe should be mixed this week, with stock markets overseas taking their cue from a suddenly reflexive Wall Street.

United States: U.S. economic calendar starts out at a snail’s pace, with the Treasury budget (Monday) forecast to post a $51 bln surplus (median $47 bln) for January vs -$23.2 bln. The NFIB small business optimism index (Tuesday) will provide the main entertainment. MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) are due, along with a potentially key update on January CPI, and January retail sales. The calendar really loads up (Thursday) with PPI, Philly Fed, Empire, claims, production, NAHB housing market index, and TIC data. The week will round out (Friday) with an update on January housing starts, which are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.20 mln unit pace. Fedspeak will be unusually limited this week, with just Cleveland Fed hawk Mester on tap (Tuesday) to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce from 8 ET.

Canada: In Canada, the data and events docket is sparse. The December manufacturing report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 0.5% gain in shipment values after the 3.4% surge in November. The Teranet/National HPI for January is due Wednesday, while January existing home sales (Thursday) are on tap. ADP publishes its payrolls report for January (Thursday). BoC Deputy Governor Schembri (Thursday) speaks to the Manitoba Association for Business Economics in Winnipeg. His remarks will be available on the BoC’s website at 13:30 ET.

Europe: Market volatility seems to be here to stay as investors adjust to the prospect of higher yields and less central bank support, and so far at least officials seem to be viewing developments with calm. Bundesbank President Weidmann played down both the strength of the EUR as well as the sell-off in stocks. Meanwhile data releases this week including Q4 GDP numbers and some final January inflation numbers, though they are unlikely to challenge the ECB’s baseline assumption of robust economic expansion amid a sanguine inflation environment that only gradually starts to move toward the ECB’s target. Eurozone GDP growth (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. The German Q4 GDP (Wednesday) is expected at 0.7%, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter and Italy GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (median 0.5%). German HICP inflation (Wednesday) meanwhile is expected to be confirmed at just -0.7% y/y and the Spanish headline reading also at just 0.7% y/y, both far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, recent German wage deals suggest a gradual build in domestic price pressures going ahead as the labor market continues to tighten. The data calendar also has Eurozone production (Wednesday), and trade numbers (Thursday), as well as ECB speakers including Weidmann and Mersch. Supply comes from Spain and France on Thursday, while Germany auctions 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.

UK: The BoE last week upgraded its assessment for economic growth while at the same time acknowledging that productivity has been lackluster, the sum of which led to an unexpected ratchet in hawkish guidance, leading to a possible rate hike from November to May. However, Brexit-related concerns — an area of emphasized contingency for the BoE — were soon to resurface. Brexit negotiations have entered a crucial phase, with both the EU and UK seeking to make a tentative accord on both a post-Brexit transition period and the form of a post-Brexit trading relationship, all in time for the EU leaders’ summit in late March. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of January inflation data (Tuesday), along with retail sales figures for the same month (Friday). The headline CPI expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.

Japan: Japan will be closed Monday from National Foundation Day. The markets will reopen Tuesday to he January PPI report, for which a 2.8% y/y reading is expected, slowing from the 3.1% pace previously. Preliminary Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen rising 1.1%, versus the previous 2.5% clip. December machinery orders (Thursday) are pencilled in posting a 2.0% m/m decline after climbing 5.7% in November. Revised December industrial production is also on deck Thursday.

Australia: the employment report (Thursday) is the focus. The total employment is expected at 20.0k gain during January after the 34.7k gain in December. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks from Sydney (Tuesday). Governor Lowe appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics (Friday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.