Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 6th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets tanked in Asia overnight, with Nikkei and Hang Seng both losing nearly 2% as technology, mining, consumer and industrial sectors came under pressure and a stronger Yen added to the sell off in Japanese stock markets, while the ASX outperformed with a -0.44% loss as the AUD weakened on disappointing GDP numbers. Australia GDP expanded 0.6% in Q3 (q/q, sa), mildly undershooting expectations but after an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in Q2 (was +0.8%). GDP climbed 2.8% y/y in Q3 after a revised 1.9% growth rate in Q2. AUDUSD fell to 0.7574 from 0.7613 just ahead of the report, as the undershoot of total GDP relative to projections combined with the sluggish household consumption growth pace squashed the mild jolt of rate hike optimism seen following modestly less dovish outing from the RBA. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and ongoing pressure on stock markets should keep EGBs supported and yields The calendar has the Eurozone retail PMI, with Brexit talks remaining a key focus ahead of next week’s EU summit.

German manufacturing orders unexpectedly rose 0.5% m/m in October. Expectations had been for a correction from the strong September number, but while the last figure was revised up to 1.2% m/m from 1.0% m/m, the October number showed a further improvement of 0.5% m/m (median -0.2%). This confirms firm survey data and expectations for another strong GDP growth rate in Q4. The German, but also the overall Eurozone industrial sector continues to fire on all cylinders with job creation accelerating, but price pressures also emerging now. Against that background Draghi could tweak the forward guidance next week somewhat to clarify that in the central scenario net asset purchases will end in September next year, even if the door to another follow on program remains theoretically open.

Main Macro Events Today

ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – increase to 185k for November vs 235k previously.

US Labor Costs (Q3)- Expectations – slip to 0.2% from 0.5%.

BoC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change is expected to the 1.00% rate setting in today’s announcement. Bank-speak since the September rate increase emphasised that the Bank is in an “intense data dependent mode” and will be cautious in the removal of further stimulus. Uncertainty remains elevated, notably around the (still) ongoing Nafta negotiations.

Oil Inventories – Expectations – a decline by 0.25M Barrels from last week -3.429M outcome.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets recovered in Asia overnight, with Japan leading the way as the yen weakened. Tech stocks rebounded, after sell off in U.S. stocks halted. The Nikkei managed a 1.45% gain, outpacing moves higher in Hang Seng and ASX 200. The CSI 300 underperformed and headed south, with commercial banks under pressure on the mainland and in Hong Kong after regulators said it is planning the introduction of quantitative indicators in the management of commercial banks’ liquidity and the IMF suggested banks to increase capital buffers against a sudden downturn. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher, confirming that risk appetite is returning, which could see Bund and Gilt yields recover some of yesterday’s losses. Today’s calendar has U.K. house price inflation from Halifax and the detailed reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP. Brexit talks remain in focus and in Germany the SPD is set to make a formal decision on whether to enter coalition talks with Merkel’s CDU/CSU a party convention today.

German industrial production unexpectedly dropped -1.4% m/m in October and while September was revised up to -0.9% m/m from -1.6% m/m reported initially, it still leaves production down for a second consecutive month. The numbers look at odds with strong orders numbers and survey data, but indicated a build up in the backlog of orders that also squares with PMI reports. This would suggest that the weaker than expected production numbers are not a sign of weakening growth momentum, but at least partly a reflection of the fact that companies seem to be running into capacity constraints, and while the annual rate fell back to 2.7% y/y from 4.1% y/y, the growth rates remain robust so far.

Main Macro Events Today

EU GDP (Q3) – Expectations – unchanged at 0.6% q/q and at 2.5% y/y.

ECB Pres. Draghi Speech at 16:00 GMT in Frankfurt

US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – up by 2k to 240k for the December 2 week.

Canadian Building Permits and Ivey PMI- Expectations – Building permits expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September, while Ivey PMI expected to slip by 1.1 to 62.7 for November.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets rallied after a positive close on wall Street. The trade surplus overshot expectations, and is bullish for China’s economy. China’s trade surplus improved to $40.2 bln in November from $38.1 bln in October, while Japan’s Q3 GDP grew 2.5% in the final reading, up from the preliminary 1.4% gain (q/q, saar). GDP grew 2.9% in the final report for Q2. Japan led the way as a weaker yen underpinned exporters, as the dollar gained amid reports that U.S. tax cuts are making progress in congress. With investors looking in profits at the end of a strong year for stocks there have been sizeable swings and forex markets remain a driver, with FTSE 100 futures in the red, as the Pound rallied on news of progress in Brexit negotiations that could see next week’s EU summit pave the way for early trade and transition talks. U.K. jobs data in the afternoon overshadows local data releases, which include French production, U.K. trade and the U.K. NIESR GDP estimate.

White smoke over Brussels as U.K. and EU strike deal on key Brexit issues that is hoped to unlock Phase 2 and talks on a transition period and future trade relationships at next week’s summit. After agreeing on the future role of the ECJ yesterday May managed to find a compromise on the Irish boarder, that kept the DUP happy but also satisfied the Republic of Ireland, with the latter confirming that it will now back talks moving into Phase 2. The Pound rallied on the news and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher now after initially dipping on the stronger Pound. EGB yields are moving up in early trade as safe haven flows are being reversed. Elsewhere in europe, German sa trade surplus narrowsed as imports surged. Germany’s sa trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.8 bln in October, from EWUR 21.9 bln in the previous month, as exports contract for a second consecutive month, while imports surged 1.8% m/m, after falling -1.1% m/m in September. The surge in imports may give a partial explanation and overall the prospects for exports and production remain good, despite the weak October numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manuf. and Industrial Production – Expectations – Manufacturing Production to come at 0.1% m/m after 0.7% seen in September, and with 3.9% y/y growth from 2.7%. Industrial production headline to come in at 0.0% m/m after 0.7% m/m growth in September, and with 3.5% y/y growth.

US NFP – Expectations – at 200K from 261K seen last month

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th December 2017.

FX News Today

The FOMC meeting is front and center this week following the solid November jobs report on Friday, which provided the final bit of cover for the Fed to push ahead with a quarter point December rate hike as well telegraphed. It will be the last meeting conducted by Chair Yellen, who can now tie a bow on her 3+ year tenure and hand the policy wand over to Jay Powell. Attention will remain on Europe too with a number of key events late in the week, including ECB and SNB policy meetings Thursday, and EU Leaders Summit and Brexit discussions, as well as German coalition building.

United States: The U.S. calendar will be crowded by supply and the FOMC policy decision, but the economic reports could pack some punches of their own thanks to key releases on inflation and retail sales, among others. November headline PPI (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%. The Treasury budget gap is also out (Tuesday) and is expected to narrow slightly to -$132 bln in November from -$137 bln a year ago. Headline CPI (Wednesday) is on tap to rise 0.4% in November from 0.1%; with a 0.2% core rise forecast. MBA mortgage applications and EIA energy inventories are also due (Wednesday). Headline retail sales (Thursday) are projected to increase 0.6% for November from 0.2%, while ex-auto sales may outperform at 1.0% vs 0.1%, given weaker auto sales of late. Import prices (Thursday) may rise 0.7% in November, while export prices are seen up 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen steady at 236k for the December 9 week. Business inventories may sink 0.1% for October (Thursday). All out on Friday, the Empire State index may rise to 20.0 in December from 19.4, industrial production is set to rise 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%, while TIC flow data is due.

Canada: Governor Poloz’s speech (Thursday) to the Canadian Club Toronto is the highlight of a fairly lean calendar this week. The speech will be published at 12:25 ET, with a press conference to follow at 13:45 ET. In last week’s announcement, the BoC maintained a cautious approach to further rate hikes amid “considerable uncertainty” on the global outlook. The press conference should make for interesting listenin, as Poloz and Wilkins expected to receive end of several pointed questions about wages, trade, GDP and what it will take to prompt another rate increase. Meanwhile, the economic reports due out this week have limited scope to alter the outlook for BoC policy. October manufacturing is expected to bounce 1.5% after the 0.5% gain in September. Existing home sales for November (Friday), the October new home price index (Thursday) and the Teranet/National HPI (Wednesday) will complete the housing data docket for October/November.

Europe: With the holiday period approaching fast, the week is a bumper one for data, as well as key political events, and key central bank meetings. After May and Juncker reached a breakthrough agreement on key Brexit issues, EU heads of states are expected to officially declare that sufficient progress on divorce terms has been made to move to phase 2. In Germany, there is fresh hope that new elections can be avoided after the SPD reversed its decision not to enter coalition talks. The first official meeting is scheduled for this week. These events may overshadow Thursday’s ECB meeting to a certain extent, especially after Draghi effectively mapped out the policy path until the end of September 2018 by delivering a 9 month QE extension in October. Data releases ahead of the ECB meeting will be overshadowed by the full event calendar and focus on final inflation data for November, as well as the first round of December confidence data with preliminary PMI and German ZEW readings. Expectations are for the confidence numbers to fall back slightly, but remain at very high levels, consistent with strong growth and job creation. The headline HICP rates expected to confirm preliminary numbers of 1.8% for Germany (Wednesday), 1.3% for France (Thursday) and 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), which should leave overall Eurozone HICP (due Dec 18) at 1.5%, below the 2% upper limit for price stability, but with signs that underlying inflation pressures and wages are starting to pick up.

UK: The pound opens the new week on a fragile footing after coming under pressure on Friday. That drop was partly due to sell-on-the-fact moves following the agreement between the EU and U.K. on divorcing terms, partly on rising concerns as the details of the deal are digested, and also in part on the sharpening of focus on the realities of the next phase of negotiations, which will involve agreeing on new trading terms with 27 countries in the relatively short time period until Brexit-Day in March 2019. The EU has already warned the U.K. that trade talks can’t happen until March next year. The main concern about the divorce agreement is “regulatory alignment” accord that was needed to maintain the Irish border as a soft border, a circumstance, as U.S. trade representatives have warned before, that could hinder or stop the U.K. from signing free trade deals with other countries. This seems to suggest that the government has, essentially, positioned the U.K. for a “soft” Brexit, and we have to now see how this unfolds politically.The data calendar is highlighted by November inflation numbers (Tuesday), the monthly labour market report covering October and November (Wednesday), and the November retail sales report (Thursday).

Japan: In Japan, November PPI (Tuesday) is expected unchanged after firming to 3.4% y/y in October versus September’s 3.1%. However, the slightly stronger yen may have limited PPI gains. Any sign of rising inflation will be good news for the BoJ. The October tertiary index (Tuesday) should rebound 0.3% versus the previous -0.2% outcome based on gains in recent real sector data. October machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in with a 3.0% m/m gain from the 8.1% drop in September. Revised October industrial production is due Thursday. It posted a 0.5% gain in the preliminary report versus September’s -1.0%. It’s been on a choppy, saw-toothed monthly path through the year. Friday brings the December Tankan index, seen improving to 25 from 22 for large manufacturers, and to 26 from 23 for large non-manufacturers.

China: November industrial production (Thursday) is forecast at little changed at 6.1% y/y from 6.2% previously. It’s held a 6-handle most of the year, with a couple of readings in the 7s. November fixed investment (Thursday) is expected to slow to a 7.1% y/y pace from 7.3%. November retail sales (Thursday), meanwhile, should rise to a 10.3% y/y rate from 10.0% previously.

AustraliaReserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks at the Australian Payment Summit 2017 (Wednesday) on “An eAud?” Head of Payments Policy Richards participates in a discussion panel (Wednesday) at the Australian Payment Summit 2017. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaks (Wednesday) on “The Availability of Business Finance.” The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in total jobs during November following the 3.7k rise in October. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 5.4% in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, as this week’s central bank meetings come into focus and amid a lack of incentive for investors to push out indices beyond recent highs. U.S. markets still managed to move higher as investors shrugged off the explosion in New York, and while volumes were lacklustre U.S. but also U.K. stock futures are moving higher. The FTSE 100 already outperformed yesterday and ongoing pressure on the Pound is continuing to underpin market interest. Oil prices are higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 58.39 per barrel. The calendar, which started very slow yesterday, heats up today, with U.K. inflation numbers for November and the German ZEW investor confidence reading for December.

FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today as market participants sit on their hands ahead of key data from key economies this week, the first of which arrives later in the form of UK November inflation data and the latest German ZEW investor survey, along with a plethora of central bank policy decisions. EURUSD has settled near 1.1780, lacking direction after the rebound from Friday’s 1.1730 low stalled at levels above 1.1800. USDJPY has plied a narrow 14 pip range so far today, between 113.43 and 113.57, settling toward the lower part of this range, which roughly marks the midway point of yesterday’s range. Cable has settled to a narrow oscillation just above yesterday’s three-session low at 1.3330. The NZ dollar bucked the directionless trend, with the currency having rallied for a second successive session as markets continue to react to yesterday’s announced appointment of Adiran Orr as the new RBNZ governor. NZDUSD logged a two-week high at 0.6937.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI and PPI – Expectations – headline and core CPI readings to remain unchanged at 3.0% y/y and 2.7% y/y, respectively, though producer input and output costs expected to tick higher, to respective rates of 6.8% y/y, from 4.6% y/y in the month prior, and to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in October.

German ZEW Sentiment – Expectations – at 18k from 18.7K seen last month

US PPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%.

ECB President Draghi Speech at 19:00 GMT

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook:Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan underperforming as the yen strengthened amid a wider dip in the dollar. The Hang Seng meanwhile outperformed and bounced back 1.3% with Air China Ltd rallying but casinos leading the gains on the benchmark index. U.K. and U.S. futures are in the read, however, ahead of the expected Fed hike today and as the dollar was hit by the Democrats win in the Alabama vote, which cast further doubt on Trump’s legislative agenda. Treasury yields declined overnight and Bund futures moved up from lows, suggesting fresh safe haven demand. The Fed announcement will overshadow the European calendar, which has German inflation at the start of the session as well as U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production and employment numbers.

German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, as expected and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the main driver behind the uptick was a rebound in energy price inflation, with petrol prices rising 2.6% m/m, bringing the annual rate up to 5.9^ from 1.2%. Heating oil prices also surged and while the German headline rate now is pretty much in line with the ECB’s objective, Draghi can still refer to the transitory impact of energy prices and still wage growth when he defends his very expansionary policy. More importantly perhaps, the German rate is above the Eurozone rate and as there hasn’t been much progress with regard to economic convergence since the crisis, stronger countries such as Germany may have to be forced to live with a period of above target inflation to give the weaker countries more time to catch up. Either way, with wage growth still weak Draghi still has something to argue with as he defends his ongoing asset purchases, although with companies running into capacity constraints today’s numbers will add to pressure from Germany to commit to an end date for QE.

Main Macro Events Today

UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Expectations – ILO unemployment rate expected to tick lower to a new 40-year low of 4.2%, from 4.3%, while the BoE-watched average household earnings to tick up to a cycle of 2.5% y/y from 2.2% y/y.

US CPI – Expectations – 0.4% in November from 0.1%; with a 0.2% core rise forecast.

FED Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference at 19:00 GMT

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south overnight as the Fed hiked rates and maintained the rate outlook for next year, despite lifting growth projections. A surprise hike in short term interest rates by China’s central bank added to pressure. U.K. futures are also heading south as the focus switches to European central banks with ECB, BoE and SNB all seen on hold. The ECB in particular could sound more hawkish than at the last meeting as council members are increasingly divided over Draghi’s open ended QE policy amid signs of capacity constraints in the economy. Data releases include preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for December, U.K. retail sales, as well as final November inflation data for a number of Eurozone countries. EU heads of states will start to gather for the start of the summit that is hoped to finally pave the way for talks and trade and transition agreements with the U.K.

FOMC hiked 25 bps and left the dots at three tightenings in 2018. The rate increase from a 1.25% to 1.50% policy band was universally expected, and the three tightenings next year was largely anticipated too. There were two dissents, with Evans and Kashkari dissented and voted for no change in rates. The Fed’s statement said the labor market continued to strengthen while economic activity was seen rising at a solid rate. On inflation, the Fed said overall and core inflation on a 12-month basis had declined this year and are running below 2%, , which may have provided the weight on the dollar.The dollar fell after the as-expected 25 basis point Fed rate hike, then quickly headed above levels just prior to the announcement, before dipping again.

Main Macro Events Today

SNB Monetary Policy – Expectations – SNB expected to continue to highlight the need for negative rates and reiterate the line from its previous policy meeting that it “will remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.”

UK Retail Sales – Expectations – 0.4% m/m rise after a 0.3% m/m gain in the month prior

BoE Preview – The BoE’s two-day December MPC meeting concludes today. No change decisions on the repo rate, which would leave it at 0.50%, and QE totals (both gilts and corporate bond purchases) are widely expected, which we anticipate will be by unanimous votes at the nine-member committee.

EU Services PMI – Expectations – a dip in the services reading to 56 from 56.2 and a decline in the manufacturing number to 59.8 from 60.1 in the previous month.

ECB Preview – Data releases since the October meeting, when Draghi wrapped a reduction of net asset purchases form January onwards in a dovish guidance, have shown stronger than expected growth momentum that will likely see upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. Against that background calls for Draghi to finally commit to an end date for QE are getting louder as are warnings that the ECB’s policy may remain too accommodate as the output gaps closes faster than anticipated. Indeed, the event risk for today’s press conference is a more hawkish tone than markets expect, especially after yesterday’s Fed hike, as the move will give Draghi more room to manoeuvre without putting undue upward pressure on the EUR.

US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims – Expectations – Headline Retail sales are projected to increase 0.3% for November from 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen at 239k from 236K last week.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, U.K. futures are also in the red, following on from broad losses on European and U.S. equity markets yesterday. Uncertainty over the progress of the U.S. tax bill continues to linger and relatively dovish signals from ECB and BoE yesterday sent yields down, but failed to lift sentiment on stock markets and while ECB President Draghi insisted on the open ended element of the QE program, ECB’s Vasiliauskas said “it is likely that the economy won’t require any additional support”. EU heads of state failed to reach an agreement on the immigration crisis yesterday and Brexit talks will take centre stage today, with officials expected to pave the way for talks and trade and transition. The economic calendar quietens down with Eurozone trade data the highlight of the agenda.

FX Update: The dollar has been traded mixed, posting fresh losses versus the yen and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, consolidating gains it saw yesterday versus the euro, in the wake of the ECB’s announcement and guidance, and holding steady-to-firmer against a raft of emerging-world currencies. The pound, meanwhile, is trading versus the dollar near the levels prevailing ahead of the BoE announcement and statement yesterday, having managed to recoup losses. USD-JPY is down, having ebbed back below 112.20, though has so far remained above yesterday’s nine-day low at 112.06. Mostly weaker stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, along with a solid reading from the latest quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence in Japan, which showed the best quarter for Japanese manufacturers since 2006, were factors that have been conducive for yen strength. EUR-USD and euro crosses consolidated losses seen in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. EUR-USD made time in a narrow range in the upper 1.17s. More of the same seems likely today. Sterling markets will pay particular attention to Brexit talks at the EU’s leaders’ summit.n.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Trade Balance – Expectations – decrease in trade surplus,down to 24.4B from 25.0B euros.

MPC Member Haldane Speech at 13:15 GMT

Canadian Manufacturing Sales- Expectations – 0.8% from 0.5% from last month.

US Empire State index – Expectations – 20.0 in December from 19.4

US Industrial Production- Expectations – 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2017.

FX News Today

Global markets can benefit from some early Christmas presents as major political uncertainties seem to be resolving. The U.S. Congress is expected to pass the tax reform package and send it to President Trump before the weekend. Agreement between the EU and U.K. will move Brexit talks to the second stage. And, Germany’s SPD party agreed to exploratory talks on renewed cooperation with Chancellor Merkel. About the only hurdle could be Thursday’s elections in Catalonia. For bonds, the dovish policies from the ECB and BoJ, a less hawkish BoE, and still benign inflation, should keep a ceiling on rates. Trading will quiet into the weekend with early closes on Friday ahead of Christmas on Monday, with many markets still off Tuesday.

United States: As the year starts to wind down, attention will remain on the tax bill. After much wrangling, it appears a bill will be passed after several GOP Senators indicated they would vote yes on the compromise version. The House is slated to vote Tuesday, with the Senate likely on Wednesday to give ailing Senator McCain time to get to Washington. As for data, all of the crucial reports are out of the way. Housing reports headline the economic calendar, which also includes revised GDP, December manufacturing numbers, income/spending, and durable goods orders. But the reports won’t really alter current outlooks for solid economic gains and still low inflation. Also, several of the reports, especially housing and durables, will still be impacted by disaster whiplash.

Canada: In Canada, the data slate provides another round of figures for the Bank of Canada’s data driven approach to policy, which was back in the spotlight last week after the Governor said “caution” in not a code word for on hold.Hence the anticipation remains that they will hold steady in January, hike 25 basis points in March to 1.25% and implement two more moves later in 2018 to gradually lift the policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2018. The economic data this week will be scrutinised for clues that conditions will be/won’t be ripe for a rate hike at the January 17 announcement. Wholesale shipment values (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.5% in October after the 1.2% drop in September. October average weekly earnings, part of the establishment survey, are also due Wednesday. The CPI is expected to rise 0.2.% in November (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.5% in October after the weak 0.1% gain in September. October GDP has the privilege of being the last report released this year and expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.2% m/m pick-up in September.

Europe: Political events were relatively positive in Europe last week. The elections in Catalonia on December 21 provide a last focus on the political arena this week, especially as polls suggest a head to head race between the parties in favour and those against independence from Spain. This week’s round of date releases include the German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday), which we expect to nudge higher to 107.5. The German economy is bursting at its seems and the Bundesbank just upped its growth forecast significantly at least for this year and warned to sizeable wage growth ahead. ECB’s Draghi meanwhile continues to see not insufficient progress on inflation and wages and indeed, November Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5%, up from the previous month, but far below the ECB’s objective. More importantly, the breakdown is expected to confirm that higher energy prices were the main driving factor behind the uptick in the headline rate in November and core inflation is still at just 0.9% y/y. So plenty for Draghi to argue with, although whether the central bank can risk seeing inflation running away in the largest economy remains to be seen. More importantly perhaps, while growth forecasts have been revised up, the growth profile in Germany and the Eurozone suggests a peak in annual rates this year, so the ECB will start to scale back support when growth is already slowing down. The calendar also has German producer (Wednesday) and import price inflation (Friday) for November, where energy prices are expected to lift headline rates. Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as consumer confidence readings for Germany and the Eurozone are also on the agenda, as are French consumer spending and national confidence indicators for Italy and France.

UK: Sterling markets, as others, will be winding down for the Christmas and New Year holiday period while still digesting the less hawkish than anticipated guidance the BoE delivered following its MPC meeting last week. The calendar this week kicks off with the December CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a modest decline in the headline total orders reading, to +15 from +17 of the November survey. The CBI also releases its December distributive sales report (Wednesday). The third and final release of Q3 GDP data is up (Friday), along Q3 current account data.

Japan: In Japan, the BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No changes are expected to rates or QE. Despite a much improved economy, inflation is subdued. Chief Kuroda is expected to remain patient for now. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected up 0.2% versus the 0.5% decline in September. .

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to its December meeting (Tuesday). Rates were held at 1.50%, as expected. The calendar contains no top tier data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with Japan and South Korea underperforming as Japan decides to strengthen its missile system to defend against North Korea. RBA meanwhile showed increased confidence in the economic outlook, which weighed on bonds, but underpinned gains on stock markets. Technology shares underpinned gains in Hang Seng and CSI 300. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher and the risk on theme continues as U.S. tax reform hopes underpins sentiment. European peripheral bond markets outperformed yesterday underpinned by Portugal’s ratings upgrade, but with Spain outperforming on both bond and stock markets. Today’s data round includes German Ifo confidence for December, which is expected to fall back slightly. Eurozone construction output and wage data are also due.

FX Update:Narrow ranges have been prevailing, and more of the same looks likely, though there could be some chop around data releases and news developments, with moves prone to be exaggerated by thin market conditions. All the dollar pairings we track are showing less than a 0.2% range so far today. USDJPY’s range has been centring around 112.50, while EURUSD has managed to drift up from around 1.1775-80 toward the 1.1800 level. Cable is also moderately higher, though, like EURUSD, remains comfortably below its high from yesterday. Focus remains on the U.S. tax overhaul bill, with the House expected to vote on it today and the Senate tomorrow, with indications suggesting that a successful passage is on. The December German Ifo business climate survey is also due later.

Main Macro Events Today

German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – nudge higher to 107.5 after the surprise uptick in December PMIs and ongoing positive trends in manufacturing orders.

EU Labour cost- Expectations – 2.0% from 0.8% in Q2.

US Housing Starts – Expectations – 1.250 mln after the 13.7% October jump to 1.290 mln.

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed. Japanese markets managed to pick up as banks benefited from the sharp rise in Treasury yields yesterday. The U.S. tax vote failed to spark a firework on markets, but after the sharp uptick in long interest rates across major markets yesterday and in Asia overnight hopes of a recovering in earnings for financial stocks have been underpinning equities and U.S. stock futures are also up. UK100 futures meanwhile are in the red however. Treasury yields meanwhile dipped slightly from Tuesdays highs in overnight trade and Bund futures moved up from lows. Today’s calendar has seen German PPI inflation down two ticks at 0.1% as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey. Sweden’s Riksbank meanwhile is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at -0.50% today.

US Tax Bill: The US Senate has approved the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax system in more than three decades.The House of Representatives earlier approved the bill comfortably. Republicans have majorities in both houses of Congress. For final approval the legislation must go back to the House on today for a procedural issue. If it passes, as expected, it will be President Donald Trump’s first major legislative triumph. Critics say the package is a deficit-bloating giveaway to the super-rich.

U.S. Data Reports: Revealed a solid November housing starts report that lifted already encouraging prospects for the Q4-Q1 housing sector, alongside a big unexpected drop in the Q3 current account deficit. For housing, November strength was skewed toward single family starts and activity in the disaster-riddled south and west, and the 3.3% headline starts rise included a solid 1.0% rise in starts under construction after upward revisions that lifted our Q4 real residential construction growth estimate to 10% from 9%, though we still expect a Q4 GDP growth rate of 2.5% after a Q3 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.3%. For the current account, the deficit fell in Q3 to just $100.6 bln from $124.4 (was $123.1) bln, thanks to a big rise in the surplus on primary income and a big drop in the secondary deficit, alongside an expected narrowing in the goods deficit and a slight widening in the service surplus.

Fedspeak: Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari repeated his warnings from Monday in the wake of the FOMC decision that there remains slack in the labour market and the Fed should not raise rates. He also noted in a Q&A session that local regulations are driving up the cost of housing and hurting affordable housing.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Carney Speech – The Governor is due to testify on the November Financial Stability Report (FSR) before the UK’s Treasury Select Committee. Scheduled to strt at 13:15 GMT.

New Zealand GDP – The December Quarter GDP figure is expected to show a decline form 0.8% in September down to 0.6%. Data is reported at 21:45 GMT and is the first GDP posting since the new government was elected and the new head of the RBNZ was announced.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets again traded mixed, with the boost from U.S. tax cuts quickly evaporating. Nikkei and ASX declined, Hang Seng and CSI 300 moved higher, as the BoJ left policy unchanged in the final meeting of the year. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are marginally higher as markets start to prepare for the long holiday weekend and the year end comes in sight. A EUR clearly above 1.18 against the dollar is doing little to boost the DAX as ECB asset purchases wind down today only to resume at much lower levels in January. Long yields continued to trade higher in Asia, but European yields managed to close off intraday lows on Wednesday and Treasury yields are down, so some stabilisation in quieter markets. U.K. consumer confidence dipped in December and today’s calendar still has French business confidence, as well as U.K. public finance data. Catalonia’s regional election will provide some interest although first results won’t be out until after the European close.

German house price inflation: Data shows a slight cooling, with the annual rate in the Europace home price index falling back to 5.9% from 6.2% in the previous month. Prices still rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.3% m/m in October and the annual index for apartment remained at a very strong 7.8% y/y. The ECB continues to insist that there are no signs of wide spread asset price bubbles, but the German housing markets clearly is showing signs of strain with prices in some areas significantly overvalued. Draghi is relying on national regulators to try and deal with the issue, but in light of the last housing bubbles and crisis there remain concerns whether this will be sufficient if the ECB continues pump cash in an already overheating market.

U.S. Data Reports: The 5.6% U.S. November existing home sales surge to a cycle-high 5.81 mln pace beat estimates, following rates of 5.50 (was 5.48) mln in October and 5.37 mln in September, as sales climb above the 5.70 mln prior cycle-high rate last March. Sales in the south, which include hurricane sites in both Texas and Florida, soared 8.3% in November after a 1.9% rise in October, but declines of 1.4% (was 1.4%) in September and 5.7% in August. We saw a 0.8% November rise for the median price, but a 7.2% drop for inventories. We expect growth rates for existing home sales of a robust 20% in Q4 and a flat figure in Q1 as we partly give back the Q4 spike, after contraction rates of 12% in Q3 and 4% in Q2. Existing home sales are on track for just a 2% rise in 2017 and an estimated 3% rise in 2018, following gains of 3.9% in 2016 and 6.5% in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 post “taper-tantrum” drop. We have cyclical increases of 68% for existing home sales and 43% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 154% for new home sales, 171% for housing starts, and 153% for permits. The housing sector is well positioned for 2018, though growth in “existers” has been slim.

Main Macro Events Today

Final Q3 GDP – Expectations are for Q3 GDP to be confirmed at 3.3% following the impacts of the hurricanes feeding through, however, some estimates have a tick up to 3.4% and revisions for Q2 up to 3.2%. The data (along with Weekly Job Claims and PCE) is released at 13:30 GMT and is likely to have the biggest impact on the USD today.

Canadian CPI – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2.% in November after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. But the CPI is seen surging to a 2.0% y/y rate in November from 1.4% in October, due to a difficult comparison with a low index level in November of last year (CPI fell 0.4% m/m in November of 2016). Gasoline prices surged in November compared to October, which is expected to drive total month comparable CPI growth. The loonie was weaker in November versus October, which could weigh on prices of imported goods. But gas prices shine the brightest, leaving the risk to the upside. The core measures were mixed in October. The CPI trim was up 1.5% y/y, matching September’s 1.5% gain. The CPI common grew 1.6% y/y versus a 1.5% increase. The CPI median slowed to 1.7% y/y from 1.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global equity rally continued in Asia overnight, after banks and energy companies underpinned gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Nikkei rose 0.16% after the cabinet approval of a budget plan that includes extra stimulus spending. The Hang Seng is up 0.34%, helped by developers. In Europe the FTSE 100 managed record highs yesterday and closed with a gain of more than 1%, but stock futures are suggesting a correction today. In the Eurozone the election victory of Catalonia’s Separatists weighed on the EUR and is likely to hit Spanish markets, after the outperformance of the IBEX yesterday. The ECB halts its bond buying from today for the quiet holiday period and trading is likely to wind down as the year end comes into view. Today the calendar holds French PPI, consumer spending and final Q3 GDP as well as the Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italian sentiment data and the final reading of U.K. Q3 GDP.

German GfK consumer confidence: Improved to 10.8 in the projected January reading. The breakdown for November, when confidence held steady at 10.7 showed an improvement in business cycle expectations, but more importantly income expectations, but despite this the willingness to buy declined slightly as the willingness to save turned less negative. Still overall a positive number that suggests consumption will continue to underpin overall growth, as the labour market continues to improve and wage growth picks up.

German import price inflation: Accelerated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month. the data were in line with our forecast, but a tad above Bloomberg consensus, as higher energy price inflation lifted the annual rate. Without oil prices would have risen just 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, so despite the uptick in the headline rate something for Draghi to argue with as underlying inflation remains modest, although in the three months trend rate the reading excluding energy turned positive for the first time since May.

U.S. Data Reports: U.S. House passed a short-term, stop-gap spending bill by a vote of 231-188. The bill, which still must be approved by the Senate, would avert a government shutdown on Friday, and would fund the government through January 19. This bill would maintain he same spending levels currently mandated. It would also allow for $4.5 bln in emergency funding for missile defense, as well as money for various healthcare programs, including $2.85 bln for CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill also included a waiver for the automatic spending cuts that would kick in under PAYGO, and that would allow President Trump to sign the tax reform bill just passed. The revised U.S. Q3 GDP data imply a Q3 productivity growth trimming to 2.8% from 3.0%, after a Q2 rate of 1.5%, with output growth of a revised 3.9% (was 4.1%) in Q3 after a 3.9% Q2 pace. We expect Q3 hourly compensation growth of an unrevised 2.7% after a 0.3% rate in Q2. The mix should leave a flat (was -0.2%) Q3 unit labor cost figure after a 1.2% Q2 drop. We expect unrevised hours-worked growth of 1.1% in Q3 after a 2.4% Q2 clip. We expect personal income growth of 4.1% in Q4 as income is pushed into 2018 from 2017 in anticipation of tax cuts, as seen last year, following an unrevised 2.8% rate in Q3. Disposable income should grow at a 4.1% in Q4 after a 2.1% (was 2.0%) rate in Q3. The savings rate should fall to a cycle-low 2.9% in Q4 with a monthly cycle-low that we peg at 2.5% in December as bonuses are delayed to January, from 3.3% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q2, versus a prior cycle-low 3.6% in Q4 of last year. We saw a 3-year high of 6.2% back in Q2 of 2015.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable Goods – Expectations are for a significant increase in the headline figure to 2.0% from a revise -0.8% last time but the key core figure is expected to slip to 0.5% from 0.9% last time. With CAD data also at 13:30 there could be interesting movements on the USDCAD pair again today like we saw yesterday following the US GDP miss and strong Canadian data.

Canadian GDP – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2% (m/m, sa). Wholesale volumes were also good news for GDP, rebounding 1.2% in October after the 1.0% tumble in September. The growth in retail sales and wholesale shipment is a welcome contrast with the 1.5% plunge in October manufacturing shipment volumes. Housing starts grew 1.9% to a 222.8k unit pace in October from 218.7k in September, suggestive of a positive contribution from construction. The outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive: Energy exports rose 2.7% in October after a 3.6% gain in September and a 1.7% increase in August. The manufacturing report’s measure of petroleum and coal shipments rose 2.2% in October after a 9.7% gain in September. We expect GDP to improve to a 2.6% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from 1.7% in Q3, which would be right in line with the BoC’s 2.5% estimate from the October MPR.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27nd December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27nd December 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Markets in Europe re-open after the Christmas holiday weekend, but trading will by quiet. Wall Street closed fractionally lower on Tuesday, while long Treasury yields declined. In Europe, peripheral yields are likely to remain volatile as the ECB halted purchases over the holiday period, with thin market conditions apt to amplify movements. The economic calendar is quiet today. Preliminary inflation data for December is due out of both Germany and Spain on Friday, where we expect headline rates falling back again after the spike in November, which was mainly driven by base effects from energy prices. An abatement in inflation would back Draghi’s commitment to ongoing asset purchases, although with the output gap closing faster than anticipated, the ECB’s guidance should gradually change over the coming months, with the focus shifting from net purchases to maintaining the stock of assets, and eventually rates.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading with a soft tilt, with USDJPY edging out a four-session low at 113.12, EURUSD a four-session high at 1.1884, and USDCAD making three-week low and AUDUSD a two-month high, at 0.7750. This has come despite robust producer sentient data yesterday out of the U.S., along with the expected fiscal stimulus to come after the passing of the U.S. tax overhaul bill last week. London and other key interbank centres reopen today, though staffing levels and client activity will remain very low until next Tuesday. The calendar is very lightly in Europe and North America today, highlighted by UK mortgage data, an Italian bond sale, and U.S. consumer confidence data.

U.S. Reports: revealed another two robust producer sentiment readings for December that provide a prelude to a renewed sentiment updraft into 2018 with the new tax law, alongside a 0.2% October rise in the S&P Case Shiller home price index that bucked seasonal price restraint to leave a rise in the y/y gain to 6.4% from 6.2%. For the Dallas Fed, we saw a rise to an 11-year high of 29.7, from 19.4 in November and a prior 11-year high of 27.6 in October. For the Richmond Fed, we saw a drop-back to a 20 reading in December that marks the second strongest figure since December of 2010, from an all-time high of 30.0 in November, with an employment index pop to a new cycle-high. Both measures have shown little moderation from the big hurricane rebuilding lift starting in September, and the ISM-adjusted level of all the major sentiment indexes is rising back to 58 from 57 in November.

Main Macro Events Today

* Swiss ZEW Survey – Credit Swiss Economic Expectations will be released at 09:00 GMT

* US Pending Home Sales- The NAR pending home sales index is expected to ease to -0.5% in November from 3.5%.

* Japanese Retail Trade – November retail sales are seen bouncing to -0.6% from -0.7% for large retailers, and to 1.2% y/y from -0.2% overall.


Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2017.

FX News Today

The start of the year 2018 is off to a bang with the “snow bomb” and freeze on the East Coast of the U.S., along with the start of the MiFID financial regulation in Europe and fresh record highs right out of the gate on equities around the globe. That’s kept yields pressured higher, but continues to do few favors for the dollar, even as gold and Bitcoin rebounded. Headline U.S. nonfarm payrolls disappointed elevated expectations, but the guts of the report remained solid.

United States: The economic calendar will home in on inflation data and retail sales following the miss on the headline December payrolls print last week. Consumer credit kicks off the week (Monday) with an $18.0 bln increase forecast for November vs $20.5 bln previously. Second tier NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings (Tuesday) are on tap next. MBA mortgage market data (Wednesday) is due, along with import prices seen +0.2% in December and export prices flat. Wholesale sales may increase 0.8% in November, while inventories rise 0.7% (Wednesday), with EIA energy inventory data on deck as well. Headline PPI may dip 0.1% in December vs 0.4% (Thursday), while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.1%. Initial jobless claims are projected (Thursday) to drop 15k to 235k for the January 6 week and the Treasury budget gap is set to widen to -$52.0 bln in December vs -$28 bln a year-ago. Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% in December vs 0.4% (Friday), while core is set to rise 0.2% vs 0.1% — leaving core y/y at 1.7%. Also on tap are December retail sales, which is forecast to rise 0.3% vs 0.8%, while increasing 0.4% ex-auto. Lastly is business inventories that should rise 0.3% in November vs -0.1%.

Fedspeak resumes in full force with a trio of Atlanta’s Bostic, SF’s Williams and Boston’s Rosengren (Monday). Bostic will be speaking on the economy and policy, while the other two will be taking part in a Brookings event on the 2% inflation target. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari will participate in a Q&A session (Tuesday), followed by Chicago’s Evans. St. Louis’s Bullard and Dallas’s Kaplan appear (Wednesday), who will be speaking on the economy and policy. NY Fed’s Dudley will deliver a keynote address on the 2018 economic outlook (Thursday) and Rosengren will return (Friday) to discuss the outlook as well.

Canada: The final bit of economic data are due this week before the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) January 17 announcement and Monetary Policy Report next week. The calendar is front-loaded, with the BoC’s business outlook survey for Q4 due Monday and December housing starts due Tuesday. Building permits are out Wednesday. The decidedly second tier November new home price index and December Teranet National HPI are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively. The BoC’s business outlook survey will finalize expectations for the BoC next week.

Europe: Strong growth and still low inflation remain the main features of the Eurozone economy, and with the ECB still glossing over the cracks of the Eurozone system long yields remain low also in peripheral countries. Political risks will continue to dominate over the next couple of months as the Italian general election on March 4 comes into view, Germany’s struggle to find a stable government continues and Brexit talks go into the second round. German Nov manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen down -0.3% m/m , but after a rise of 0.5% m/m in the previous month. and with a still strong trend suggesting ongoing robust demand in the manufacturing sector. Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is seen picking up slightly to 114.8 from 114.6, after the preliminary consumer confidence data came in higher than anticipated and PMI readings also improved at the end of last year. Germany will release a preliminary estimate for full year 2017 GDP (Thursday). Growth last year was much stronger than anticipated and the output gap is closing faster than expected, with PMI reports already suggesting that the manufacturing sector is running into capacity constraints, thus backing expectations for a gradual change in the ECB’s forward guidance in coming months, with the current QE program likely to be the last and net asset purchases expected to be phased out in the last quarter of the year. Ahead of the full year GDP numbers. The calendar also holds German trade data (Tuesday) and French production numbers (Wednesday) for November, as well as Italian and overall Eurozone production data (Wednesday) with the latter seen up 0.5% m/m. Growth remains robust, but so far inflation data has failed to move any closer to target and final December HICP readings from France and Spain are expected to confirm preliminary readings and not bring any surprises.

UK: Sterling markets have been lacking strong leads so far this year. Unexpected weakness in the December manufacturing and construction PMI surveys were offset by a firmer than expected PMI reading for the dominant service sector. The ONS stats office reported an encouraging tick higher in UK productivity, though to little impact. Brexit-related news or developments, meanwhile, have been thin so soon after the holiday period. Formal negotiations with the EU on a post-Brexit trading relationship are due to start in March.This week’s UK calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the private BRC retail sales survey for December (Tuesday) along with November production and trade data (Wednesday). The BoE MPC’s next policy meeting will take place on February 7th-8th, where a no change decision is widely anticipated. The BoE will then also publish its latest quarterly inflation report, with updated growth and inflation projections.

Japan: is on holiday Monday observing Coming of Age Day. December consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to improve to 45.5 from 44.9. November current account data (Friday) should show the surplus narrowing to JPY 1,900 bln from 2,176 bln.

China: December CPI and PPI are due (Wednesday) with the former seen rising to a 2.0% y/y pace from 1.7%, while the latter slows to 5.0% y/y from 5.8% previously. December loan growth and new yuan loans are also tentatively due (Wednesday) with the latter forecast at CNY 900.0 bln from 1,120 bln in November. The December trade report (Friday) should reveal a narrowed surplus of $37.0 bln from $40.2 bln in November.

Australia: Australia building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to dip 0.5% in November after the 0.9% gain in October. ANZ job ads for December are also due Tuesday. November retail sales (Thursday) are seen rising 0.3% after the 0.5% increases in October. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s docket is clear this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6. No change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher overnight. The Hang Seng headed for an 11th straight gain, led by property developers and energy producers and moving closer to the record levels, Japanese indices were underpinned by electronics makers and chemicals, despite a stronger Yen, with the Nikkei closing up 0.57%. FTSE 100 futures are also up, but U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, as Treasury yields rise in tandem with most long yields in Asia. Only China’s 20-year declined again, while Japan’s 10-year gained 1.1 bp and the 10-year Treasury 0.6 bp. European yields headed broadly south yesterday, despite gains on stock markets, but global movements suggest a corrections in bonds. The data calendar today has German trade and production numbers at the start of the session, as well as French trade and Eurozone jobless numbers.

German Nov industrial production jumped 3.4% m/m in November, a much stronger than expected rebound after two months of decline that left the annual rate at 5.6% y/y, up from 2.8% y/y in October and highlighting the strength of the manufacturing sectors in particular. Manufacturing orders may have disappointed in November, but the underlying trend remains strong, while surveys point to ongoing optimism about the outlook that is underpinning job creation and will likely feed into wage deals. German trade surplus widens as exports jump.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.4 bln in November, up from 19.9 bln in the previous month, as exports rose 4.1% m/m, outpacing the 2.3% m/m rise in imports. The three months trend improved further indicating that net exports underpinned overall growth in the last quarter of 2017, although accumulated data for the first 11 months of 2017 show that surpluses in both current account and trade actually declined slightly compared to the corresponding period 2016, highlighting that for once this was not an export led German recovery, but rather than improving global growth is also benefiting German exports, while the strong EUR is helping to keep the import bill down.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock rally started to fade in Asia with a stronger Yen and higher global yields weighing. The BoJ’s implicit tapering and the ECB’s reduced monthly purchase targets acted as a reminder that central bank support is slowly being phased out and Japanese indices headed south. The ASX 200 was also down, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 were underpinned, by data and as China’s central bank weakened its daily fixing on the yuan by the most since September. Yields continued to rise and the Japanese 10-year is up 1.9 bp and the 10-year Treasury yield up 1.7 bp, but South Korea is leading the way as safe haven flows are being reversed slowly. FTSE 100 futures as well as U.S. futures are heading south and against that background European stock markets are likely to retreat, and bonds are likely to remain under pressure ahead of supply from Italy and Germany today. The calendar has industrial production data out of France and the U.K. as well as U.K. trade numbers.

FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-firmer, overall. EURUSD has remained heavy, meeting good selling interest above 1.1950, though so far remaining above yesterday’s 12-day low at 1.1915. Cable and AUDUSD have been seeing similar price actions, aided by the spike in U.S. Treasury yields over the last day, while the dialogue between North and South Korea has seen a rotation out of haven assets and currencies. USDJPY has declined for a second consecutive day, logging an eight-day low of 112.16. The move has been driven by broader yen gains, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other yen crosses, also down. Market participants have been continuing to digest the BoJ’s QE tapering announcement of yesterday, despite some market narratives downplaying the taping move has being little more than a baby step, with the central bank likely to remain committed to its YCC (yield curve control) policy in the face of the chronic undershooting of the inflation target.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manufacturing Production – expected to rise to 0.3%m/m from 0.1%m/m and to fall to 2.8%y/y from 3.9%y/y. Industrial production expected to rise 0.5% m/m and 1.9% y/y.

UK Goods Trade Balance

Canadian Building Permits – Building permit values are expected to rise 1.0% m/m in November after the 3.5% gain in October.

Crude Oil Inventories & US Imports – MBA mortgage market data is due, along with import prices seen +0.2% in December and export prices flat (median 0.3%). EIA energy inventory data are on deck as well.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly lower, yields are coming down after the sharp move higher in recent days and 10-year JGBs shed -1.1 bp while Treasury yields are down 2.0 bp at 2.537%. Global equity indices have reached levels that raised concerns of overheating, while a number of bond auctions added to the uptick in yields yesterday. But while Germany under-subscribed 10-year auction yesterday spooked investors, strong demand in the USD 20 bln 10-year Treasury auction helped to calm nerves and saw yields heading sound again. Losses on Asian stock markets meanwhile were modes. The Nikkei closed down -0.33%, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed and UK100 futures are moving higher and with the EUR holding below 1.20 against the Dollar, the GER30 may be able to recover somewhat after under-performing yesterday, as full year 2017 GDP estimates are likely to show very strong growth, while Bund futures are likely to open higher.

FX Update: The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday’s Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that the Bloomberg report was based on “false” information. The remark saw the yield on the 10-year T-note tick lower while giving the dollar a lift. The narrow trade-weighted USD index recovered to within a few pips of 92.47 after seeing a low of 91.92 yesterday. EUR-USD has ebbed back under 1.1950 after yesterday foraying above 1.2000 in the wake of the Bloomberg story. Market participants will now return focus on incoming fundamental leads while continuing to digest this week’s BoJ tapering of its QE program.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Canadian NHPI – November new home price index expected at 0.2%m/m from 0.1% m/m.

US PPI & Unemployment claims – Headline PPI may dip 0.2% in December vs 0.4%, while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.3%. Initial jobless claims are projected to drop 5k to 245k for the January 5 week.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 outperforming again, while the Nikkei underperformed and declined -0.24% as the Yen moved higher against the dollar. Oil giants led the way in Hong Kong. 10-year JGB and Treasury yields climbed and recent volatility in bond markets seemed to subside somewhat, although the BoJ and ECB reminding markets this week that central bank support is slowly on the way out, yields are likely to continue to trend higher. UK100 futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures. The calendar only has second tier data in the form of inflation numbers out of Spain, France and Sweden.

FX Update: The dollar has remained on a softening tack, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extending yesterday’s declines from levels around 92.50 to a 91.75 low today,, which matches the four-month low that was posted on January 2. The greenback has logged fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies, in the early part of the Asia-Pacific session after Fed’s Dudley saying that the case for gradualist approach to tightening monetary policy remains strong, arguing that the pace of rate hikes could be accelerated if need be. EURUSD clocked a five-day peak at 1.2066, with subsequent dips remaining shallow. AUDUSD traded above 0.7900 for the first time since late September, logging a peak of 0.7904. The hawkish-leaning ECB minutes, yesterday, and the BoJ’s QE tapering announcement earlier in the week, have been factors generating a softer dollar theme this week, via EURUSD buying and USDJPY selling, respectively.

Main Macro Events Today

US CPI & Core CPI – Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.2% in December vs 0.4% , while core is set to rise 0.2% vs 0.1% — leaving core y/y at 1.7%.

US Retail Sales – December retail sales forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.8%, while increasing 0.4% ex-auto. Lastly is business inventories that should rise 0.3% in November vs -0.1%.

German Buba President Weidmann Speech

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

Wall Street soared to record highs again last Friday and outperformed most global indices. The bullish impacts of U.S. tax reform and deregulation have manifested in signs of stronger growth and have led to expectations for improved earnings. The momentum has helped boost European and Asian shares as well.

United States: U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. The hefty rally on Wall Street has helped lead global markets higher so far in 2018. While there’s plenty of unease to go around at these lofty levels, the underlying optimism suggested by earnings expectations, the bullish momentum, and the forecasts for sustained economic growth ahead suggest the rally can be extended. Earnings should be the guiding force in the markets this week, with some impact from economic data. The spending bill will be monitored ahead of a partial government shutdown on Friday as the spending bill runs out. Deal making could get contentious, particularly after President Trump remains at odds with the Democrats on “Wall” funding, while the kerfuffle over the President’s language last week add to the divisive environment.

This week, Manufacturing and production data headline the economic calendar. The January Empire State manufacturing index (Tuesday) should rise 1 point to 19 after falling 1.4 points to 18.0 in December. Industrial production for December (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.4% after the 0.2% November gain, to bring capacity utilization up to 77.2% from 77.1%. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should fall to 25.0 in January from the upwardly revised 27.9 in December. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index is due Wednesday. Housing starts (Thursday) should fall to a 1.275 mln pace in December after November’s 3.3% surge to 1.297 mln. Preliminary January consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected to rise to 97.0 after the index slid 0.8 points to 95.9 in December, supported by the bull run in equities and the passage of the tax bill.

Canada: The BoC is in the spotlight this week, with Wednesday’s announcement expected to reveal a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike to 1.25%. The Monetary Policy Report, also due Wednesday, should reveal a still cautiously upbeat growth outlook that is consistent with a gradual normalization path. The data slate is thin, leaving the focus firmly on the Bank of Canada: December existing home sales are expected Monday, while November manufacturing is due Friday. The manufacturing shipment values expected to rise 1.0% m/m after the 0.4% dip in October.

Europe: After Draghi failed to deliver the expected tweak in the forward guidance in December, the minutes from the meeting reminded investors that “postponed” is not “canceled” and that the ECB is still on the way to phase out net asset purchases after the end of the current program in September. However, gradualism remains the order of the day and this week’s data releases could help the markets settle down further, with final HICP readings for the Eurozone coming with a slight risk to the downside after downward revisions to Spanish and French readings. ECB speakers include Weidmann and Nowotny and are likely to come in on the hawkish side, however, so a balanced picture. Meanwhile political risks seem to be receding somewhat with Germany finally heading for a functioning government after Merkel reached a preliminary agreement with the Social Democrats in the exploratory talks for a rerun of the grand coalition, although the SPD’s party conference still has to clear the talks.

The European calendar focuses on the remaining final inflation numbers for December. We are looking for German HICP (Tuesday) to be confirmed at 1.6% y/y and the Italian HICP (Tuesday) at 1.0%, which should leave the overall Eurozone CPI reading at 1.4% y/y unchanged from the preliminary number and down from November. European calendar has also has November PPI data for November, seen falling back to 2.3% y/y, from 2.5% y/y. The Eurozone schedule includes November trade as well as current account data and supply also continues to flood in with Spain and France auctioning bonds on Thursday and Germany selling 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.

UK: The week ahead brings some key data releases, highlighted by December inflation and retail sales data. Brexit-related developments of significance have been in short supply so far in the new year, but are likely to pick up. Talks between the UK and EU on a transition deal are due to start presently, although negotiations on a future trading relationship with the EU are not due to begin until March. As for this week’s data calendar, UK CPI for December (Tuesday) expected to have a moderation to 3.0% y/y after November’s 3.1% y/y clip, an outcome which would square with BoE projections. December retail sales are also due (Friday), where a decline is expected of 0.8% m/m, which would correct some of the 1.1% m/m gain that was seen in November. Overall, data in-line with expectations shouldn’t cast much bearing on sterling markets.

Japanecember PPI (Tuesday) is penciled in at a 3.1% y/y pace, slightly slower than the 3.5% previously. The November tertiary index (Tuesday) is forecast rising 0.5% from the prior 0.3% bounce after slipping slightly in August (-0.1%) and September (-0.2%). November core machine orders (Wednesday) should fall 2.0% m/m from the 5.0% increase in October. The index has bounced around on a monthly basis but posted a 3.9% 3-month change in October, and is up 2.3% y/y. However, there’s risk of a deeper slide in November given the firmer yen. Revised November industrial production is due Thursday. Production posted a 0.6% gain initially, for a second straight monthly gain (0.5% in October).

China: December industrial production (Thursday) is forecast to rise 6.1% y/y, unchanged from November. December retail sales are anticipated to have risen 10.3% y/y from 10.2%, while December fixed investment is seen up 7.0% y/y from 7.2%.

Australia: Housing investment (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.0% in November after the 0.6% dip in October. Employment (Friday) is expected to expand 25.0k in December after the 61.6k bounce in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.4%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s has another clean slate this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate,is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.