Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

HFM. · Mar 15, 2018

Date : 15th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.

FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty.

* US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72.

* ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 16, 2018

Date : 16th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.

FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Labour cost

* EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.

* US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 19, 2018

Date : 19th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.

United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.

Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday), the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).

Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.

Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.

The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).

Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.

Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 20, 2018

Date : 20th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.

FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures.

* German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 21, 2018

Date : 21st March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.

FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y

* Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln.

* FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4.

* FOMC Press Conference

* RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 22, 2018

Date : 22nd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.

FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.

* UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.

* BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.

* US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 23, 2018

Date : 23rd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.

FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.

* CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.

* CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.

Support and Resistance levels

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 26, 2018

Date : 26th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th March 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The pendulum has swung back wickedly to trade politics after President Trump announced tariffs on $50 bln in Chinese tech and telecom imports. In turn, the Chinese retaliated on $3 bln in largely agricultural items, but hinted at more to come, including mulling “all options” when asked about ongoing Treasury purchases. Perhaps once the full scope of our tangled economic relationship is laid bare, both sides will have a greater appreciation for its complexity and benefits, while addressing its evident shortcomings as well. Meanwhile, Trump also grudgingly signed off on a $1.3 tln budget deal, which boosted military spending among other things, but didn’t have everything on his wish list.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will connect the dots the week after the Fed lifted theirs, starting with updates (Monday) on the Chicago Fed national activity index for February and the March Dallas Fed index. January Case Shiller home prices may slip (Tuesday) to 204.3 from 204.5, while consumer confidence is expected to hold up near 130.00 in March from 130.8 in February and the Richmond Fed index may sink to 20 in March from 28. MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$73.6 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.8% vs 2.5% (Wednesday), along with NAR pending home sales and EIA energy inventories. Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week (Thursday), with personal income forecast to rise 0.5% in February and spending seen +0.3% core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 (Thursday), while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March. U.S. Markets will be closed for Good Friday.

Canada: The highlight is January GDP (Thursday), expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.1% gain in December. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is projected to rise 0.1% in February (m/m, nsa) after a 0.3% gain in January as the dip in gasoline prices restrains growth in the index. January average weekly earnings (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the identical 0.2% gain in December. The Bank of Canada has been of the view that some slack remains in the labour market while the economy is operating at full capacity. The CFIB’s Business Barometer survey of small and medium business sentiment for March is due Thursday. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. The next event is the release of the Business Outlook Survey on April 9, followed by the rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report on April 18. Canada’s stocks and bond markets are closed for Good Friday, March 30.

Europe: Europe will start to hunker down going into the long Easter Holiday weekend, but the calendar still holds key data releases. The German HICP (Thursday) firming back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y, while the French rate (Friday) is seen lifting to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, the Italian rate (Friday) to 0.8% y/y from 0.5%. This should leave the preliminary March Eurozone rate, due April 4, to come back to around 1.4/1.5%. This is still far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2%, but officials are more confident now that underlying inflation has turned a corner and is on the way higher.

This is partly a reflection of increasingly tight labor markets, especially in Germany, where the official jobless number (Thursday) is likely to dip by a further -15K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment. PMIs, ZEW and Ifo surveys all declined in March and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance. Still, while there is some disagreement over the degree of slack remaining in the economy, and how urgent is the need to phase out of exceptional measures, it is still pretty clear that the ECB is preparing to end net asset purchases by the end of the year. Officials don’t seem in a hurry though to commit to such a step just yet, however, and if volatility remains high, Draghi could delay a clarification of the future of QE until July, still well ahead of the end of the current QE schedule in September.The data calendar meanwhile also includes Eurozone M3 numbers, German import price inflation and consumer confidence as well as Italian confidence data and industrial orders and finally French consumer spending numbers.

UK: The calendar brings, in chronologic order, mortgage lending data (Monday), the monthly Nationwide house price indicator and the latest CBI distributive trades survey (both Wednesday), and Gfk consumer confidence, the third and final release of Q4 GDP data, Q4 current account figures, and monthly lending data from the BoE (all on Thursday). From these, the CBI retail survey expected to show a realised sales headline of 7 in March, after 8 in the month prior, the Gfk consumer confidence to remain unchanged a -10 in March, and GDP growth to remain unrealised at 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y. In-line outcomes would not likely impact sterling markets much. The markets will be closed Friday through Monday for Easter.

Japan: In Japan, growth has shown signs of slowing after the better than expected Q4 GDP pace of 1.6%. And the erosion in business sentiment could portend further slippage, especially on regional trade worries as well as the firmer JPY. Additionally, the stronger yen could thwart the BoJ’s reflation attempt. This week’s data will help clarify the outlook. February services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to dip to a 0.6% y/y pace from 0.7%. February retail sales (Thursday) are seen climbing to a 1.0% y/y clip from 0.4% for large retailers, and to 2.0% y/y from 1.5% overall. Tokyo March CPI (Friday) is pencilled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y overall, and 1.0% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. February unemployment rate (Friday) is forecast at a steady 2.4%, while the job offers/seekers ratio likely remained steady at 1.59. February preliminary industrial production (Friday) is expected to bounce to a 6.0% y/y rate from -6.6%, though a lot of the swing could be a function of Lunar New Year distortions. February housing starts (Friday) are estimated to have improved to a -6.0% y/y pace after plunging to -13.2% previously (perhaps on poor weather). February construction orders are also due Friday.

Australia: The data calendar has private sector credit (Thursday), expected to improve to a 5.0% y/y pace in February from 4.9% in January. The usually busy Reserve Bank of Australia has nothing on the docket this week. The next event is the April 3 board meeting, which no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 27, 2018

Date : 27th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.0 bp at 0.528% in early trade, vs a 1.5 bp gain in 10-year JGB yields. Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp, but have also lifted from the lows seen during the Asian session, as stock markets bounced back in Asia. Peripheral bonds are outperforming as risk appetite improves and European stock futures are also rallying. The GER30 future is up more than 1.8% as risk appetite strengthens amid hopes that U.S. posturing on tariffs is primarily a tool to gain trade concessions and won’t trigger and all out trade war. Still, volatility is likely to remain high and sentiment fragile which is underpinning volatility on markets. The data calendar picks up today. Released at the start of the session German import price inflation came in weaker than expected. Spanish HICP numbers will also be watched closely and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment is expected to dip again.

FX Update: The yen posted fresh lows today, losing ground for a second straight day amid a backdrop of reviving risk appetite and associated gains in global stock markets. USDJPY clocked a three-session high of 105.75 in Tokyo, about a 35 pip gain on the New York closing levels, putting in some further distance from the 16-month low seen on Friday at 104.64. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action. There was no data or other news of market-moving note today. A belief in market narratives that Trump’s protectionism push will be more bluff than buster, with initial grandiose threats giving way to watering down, exemptions and negotiation, have been underpinning stock markets this week, and seeing the yen’s safe haven premium unwind. Elsewhere, the dollar has largely consolidated near lows posted yesterday against the euro and many other currencies. EURUSD has been settled near 1.2450 after yesterday seeing a six-week high at 1.2461. Cable has seen a similar action. AUDUSD and NZDUSD managed fresh highs before backing off. USDCAD edged out a two-session low at 1.2828.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone ESI – is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance on the phasing out of QE. Bundesbank President Weidmann may be pushing for a firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, but Draghi and Praet seem less in a hurry and with markets still jittery officials could well wait until July before clarifying the future of QE beyond September.

* CB Consumer Confidence – is expected to hold up near 130.40 in March from 130.8 in February.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Mar 28, 2018

Date : 28th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year yields are down in opening trade, in tandem with global trends, as long bonds are underpinned by a fresh bout of risk aversion and a sell off in stocks. Fresh selling of tech stocks sparked a sharp decline on Wall Street yesterday, that was followed by a broad correction in Asia and European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures. The GER30 future lost more than -0.9% in opening trade. The 10-year Bund yield has dipped back below the 0.5% mark, the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated below 2.8% during the Asian session after declining sharply during U.S. hours, the 10-year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.027%. Month and quarter end cash flows, redemptions and sizeable index extensions in Europe will continue to underpin peripherals in particular and could help to keep Eurozone spreads narrow despite the flare up in risk aversion. Meanwhile German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the U.K. has the CBI distributive trade survey as well as BoE Agent reports of business conditions and Italian orders and sales numbers for the industrial sector.

FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses have settled lower versus yesterday’s highs, with the Japanese currency finding renewed safe haven demand as Wall Street, specifically the tech-sector, led a fresh global stock market wobble. News that the Trump trade team may be planning to use emergency laws via CFIUS to clamp down on China investment into the U.S. also set a negative tone. Investors will remain focused on developments in the tech sector and on Trump’s protectionist policies, which in turn will have a bearing on the yen. The visit to Beijing by North Korea’s Kim has been greeted as a positive in terms of further allaying geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsular, though evidently hasn’t been sufficient tonic to quell the risk-off vibe in markets. BoJ’s Kuroda repeated, for the umpteenth time, that the central bank will persist with “powerful” monetary stimulus, while Japanese PM Abe said that a delay in the planned sales tax hike would be considered in the scenario of a financial shock. The Nikkei 225 equity index finished 2% for the worse. USDJPY, which has been trending lower since early January, and technically remains in this downtrend, has resistance at 105.94-95.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* US Final GDP & Good Trade Balance – MBA mortgage applicationsis due today as well, followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$72.5 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.7% vs 2.5%.

* Crude Oil Inventories –

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

johnwoods112 · Mar 28, 2018

Forex trading is not for everyone, you have to be patient and devoted, you can't expect to get rich overnight.

HFM. · Mar 29, 2018

Date : 29th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is up 0.8 bp at 0.505% in early trade, amid an overall mixed picture on global bond markets. Peripherals are slightly outperforming in Europe, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.026%, but down from earlier highs, the 10-year Treasury yield is up from lows and unchanged at 2.78%. European stock futures struggled initially, but are now broadly higher, after a mixed session in Asia. Traders remain cautious after the sell off in tech stocks and amid the surge in risk appetite, but with the long Easter holiday weekend looming things may quieten down somewhat. This is also the last trading day for Bunds this month and this quarter and after sizeable index extensions in EGBs may have underpinned peripheral bonds in particular, the effect is likely to wane now, although upcoming redemption should keep the ECB in the market. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence surprised on the upside, while house price data disappointed. The calendar still has key German inflation data as well as German labour market numbers. U.K. lending data and the third reading of U.K. Q4 GDP.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer in relatively quiet trade into what will be long holiday weekend for many major centres. EURUSD has settled in the lower 1.23s after tipping to a low of 1.2399 late yesterday. USDJPY ebbed back to the mid 106.0s from the upper 106.00s, partly on the softer dollar and partly on yen gains. A mixed session across Asian stock markets spoke of a continued vexed sentiment, with FAANG stocks on Wall Street a prevailing source of bearishness. Japan’s finance minister, Aso, attempted to walk the yen lower by arguing that yield differentials warrant higher levels in USDJPY.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment – the official jobless number is likely to dip by a further -15K (, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment.

* German March HICP – German HICP expected to firm back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y in the previous month, which is in line with consensus and partly based on the assumption that the earlier timing of Easter this year lifted holiday related prices in March rather than April, and thus added positive base effects.

* Canada GDP – GDP expected to expand 0.1% in January (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in December. The risk is to the downside in January, as manufacturing shipments contracted and home sales tumbled. The 1.1% tumble in manufacturing shipment volumes during January is a heavy weight on the January GDP outlook.

* US data – Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week, with personal income forecast to rise 0.4% in February and spending seen +0.3% (median 0.2%); core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 , while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 2, 2018

Date : 2nd April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd April 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

It was a rough and tumble Q1 for stock and bond bulls as global asset markets suffered losses of varying degrees. The Dow and S&P declined in the January to March period for the first time since Q2 2015. The pain was exacerbated given the stellar Q4 results. The three-month MSCI All Country Index was off as well. While there were various explanations for the declines in asset values, less accommodative monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and signs of slowing economic momentum certainly featured. This week should be a consolidative one ahead of key data and events, and the advent of the Q1 earnings season in one-week time. We believe still-solid fundamentals, including tight labor markets and strong confidence measures point to a rebound in equities and a bounce in bond yields.

United States: The U.S. markets managed to rebound on Thursday, the last day of Q1, supported by month- and quarter-end flows. There was also some easing in trade tensions, a better than expected Q4 GDP result, and signs of health consumer and business confidence. Fed fears have receded too since Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy Report, and as inflation pressures have ebbed too. Cautious trading should characterize this week as the markets assess recent actions, while looking ahead to the jobs report (Friday). Fed Chairman Powell’s comments (Friday) on the economic outlook will be eagerly awaited too. March nonfarm payrolls (Friday) will be the usual highlight. The manufacturing and services ISMs will also be key for the economic outlook heading into Q2. The manufacturing index for March (Monday) is seen slipping to 60.0 after the unexpected jump to 60.8 in February, a 13-year high. The March services index (Wednesday) should drop to 59.0 from February’s 59.5 and the 12-year high of 59.9 from January. Other confidence measures for March have shrugged off the turmoil thanks to buoyant optimism regarding future growth. March auto sales (Tuesday) will contribute importantly to the spending outlook as well. Also on tap this week are February construction spending (Monday), the ADP survey of private payrolls (Wednesday), February factory orders (Wednesday), and February trade (Thursday).

Fedspeak will be a focal point as the markets again look to debate the rate trajectory with fundamentals coming back into view — will the Fed hike the three times projected by the dots, or will they go only one more time, or three more times this year. All eyes will be on Chairman Powell who speaks on the economic outlook (Friday at 13:30 ET). His comments and the morning’s jobs report, will help give the markets big directional guideposts. His pragmatic outlook from his Monetary Policy Report, along with some easing in inflation numbers, helped soothe market fears of a more hawkish FOMC.

Canada: The Canadian calendar this week features March employment (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 25.0k gain in total jobs following the 15.4k gain in February. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 5.8%, a 40-year low. The trade deficit (Thursday) is expected to widen to -C$2.1 bln in February from -C$1.9 bln in January. The Markit manufacturing PMI is due Monday, while the Ivey PMI is scheduled for a Friday release.

Europe: It’s another holiday shortened week with most European markets still closed on Monday for the Easter holidays. Traders will welcome the break after a pretty stressful month, and quarter, that saw a surge in volatility, along with a drop in equity prices and an uptick in Gilt and Bund yields. But, the start of the new quarter is a chance for markets to settle down somewhat. Geopolitical risks have eased slightly, there is less concern of an all-out trade war, while in Europe there is more clarity on Brexit. Still, tech giants will remain under a cloud and global central banks remain on course to remove stimulus. The ECB has already started to shift the goal post to rate hike prospects for next year, which pretty much makes the phasing out of net asset purchases this year a done deal. Yet, Draghi may wait until July before finally committing, and by then another short QE program to phase out the current EUR 30 bln may already be enough to keep the markets happy if he delivers it with a dovish guidance on rates. Still, that 2019 will be the year when rates clearly lift off is increasingly certain and volatility may remain high as markets adjust to the new normal.

This week’s data highlight is the preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation reading for March (Wednesday), where an acceleration is expected in the headline rate to 1.4% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at the 56.6 preliminary report, and is down from the 60.6 December print. The services reading (Thursday) is projected at 55.3, and is off of the 58.0 high from January. These would leave the composite (Thursday) at 55.5, lower than the 57.1 in February, as well as the 58.8 January high. Despite the slippage, the numbers are still pointing to healthy levels of expansion. German manufacturing orders (Thursday) should rebound from the dip in February, while industrial production (Friday) is seen rising 0.1% m/m, after a drop of -0.1% m/m in January. The overall picture is still that of slightly slowing growth momentum as the output gap starts to close, but gradually improving underlying inflation, the combination of which will leave the ECB on course to phase out QE this year.

UK: London markets will return on Tuesday following the four-day Easter weekend. The calendar is quiet this week, highlighted by the release of the Markit PMI surveys for March on Tuesday, and the construction PMI (Wednesday) to ebb to a 51.0 reading after 51.4 in the month prior. The services PMI (Thursday) expected to slip to 54.0 (from 54.5. As-expected data shouldn’t have much bearing on BoE policy expectations. Sterling markets are factoring about 80% odds for a 25 bp rate hike at the May Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which would coincide with the central bank’s next release of its quarterly inflation report.

Japan: The March Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 54.3 (the March preliminary reading was 53.2) versus the 54.1 final February reading. March auto sales are also due Tuesday. February personal income and PCE (Friday), with the latter forecast slowing to 0.5% y/y, partly due to bad weather, from 2.0% previously.

China: The March services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 54.9 from 54.7.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to maintain the current 1.50% rate setting, alongside a statement that is consistent with an eventual rate hike. The RBA expected to remain on hold well into this year, as growth and inflation gradually improve. The data calendar has retail sales (Wednesday), seen rising 0.4% in February after the 0.1% gain in January. Building approvals (also Wednesday) are projected to fall 8.0% in February after a 17.1% surge in January. The trade surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to A$0.6 bln in February from the A$1.1 bln surplus in January.

New Zealand: the data and events calendars are blank. The Bank held rates steady at 1.75% in March and maintained that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 3, 2018

Date : 3rd April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.8 bp at 0.484% in early trade, amid a broad dip in Eurozone long yields and in tandem with a -1.5 bp decline in 10-year JGB yields. The start of the new quarter didn’t bring an improvement in stock market sentiment and Eurozone stock futures are selling off in catch up trade, after the long Easter weekend and a fresh sell off on Wall Street yesterday that saw the NASDAQ closing with a loss of -2.74%. Asian markets also corrected further overnight, albeit less so. Treasuries are also underperforming today and the 10-year up 1.1 bp on the day at 2.741%. German retail sales at the start of the session unexpectedly declined and manufacturing PMIs out of the Eurozone and the U.K. are also expected to show waning confidence, thus adding to concerns that the recovery is fizzling out.

FX Update: The dollar majors continued to ply narrow ranges as markets returned to full force following the long weekend in European and elsewhere. EURUSD continued in a narrow range around the 1.2300 mark, and has been unmoved by unexpected weakness in German retail sales data. USDJPY lifted to a intraday high of 106.03 amid general, albeit moderate, yen softness, which occurred as stock markets in Asia pared intraday losses. This put in a little space from yesterday’s low at 105.66. Data and news developments were thin on the ground in Asia today, while market participants remain weary about trade wars and tech sector woes. All three of the major U.S. indices yesterday closed more than 10% below January highs. The RBA held its cash rate on hold at 1.50%, as had been widely anticipated, and the statement didn’t bring any surprises, largely being a repeat of the last one, noting improving growth prospects but with inflation expected to remain benign and repeating the view that any appreciation in the Australian dollar would result in a slower pick up in economic activity and inflation.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone manufacturing PMI – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at the 56.6 preliminary report, and is down from the 60.6 December print.

* UK Manufacturing PMI – expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.7 after February’s 54.5.

* German Manufacturing PMI – expected to remain unchanged at 58.4.

* Fedspeeches – The dove Kashkari will be at a regional economic forum, while Governor Brainard speaks on financial stability.

Support and Resistance levels

**

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 4, 2018

Date : 4th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.501% in opening trade, still outperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which are up 0.4 bp and 0.6 bp at 2.779% and 0.021% respectively. Stock markets meanwhile fluctuated in Asia after a positive close on Wall Street, with trade tensions coming back to haunt investors.Nikkei and Topix are up 0.24% and 0.21% respectively, but trade jitters continue to hang over markets as investors await China’s response in the latest escalation of the trade tensions with the U.S. U.K. stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. futures and as the pound strengthens. GER30 and FRA40 futures meanwhile posted slight gains in opening trade. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.29 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on the preliminary reading of March HICP inflation, seen accelerating to 1.4% y/y from 1.1%. The U.K. Construction PMI as well as a German 5-year Bond auction are also due.

FX Update: The major pairings have posted limited ranges so far today. The yen saw some fresh weakness in early Asian trade, while the Aussie dollar rallied moderately on strong retail sales data out of Australia. EURUSD chopped around in the upper 1.2200s, dipping toward 1.2270 in the latest phase. Yesterday’s two-week low is at 1.2253. AUDUSD clocked an eight-day high of 0.7717 before ebbing back under 0.7700. USDJPY edged out a six-day high of 106.65 in early Tokyo and has since remained buoyant. The rebound on Wall Street yesterday initially aided the yen lower before a less certain tone in Asian stock markets, along with declines in U.S. equity index futures, seemed to halt the yen’s downside progress. The early salvos of what looks to be shaping up to be a US-Sino trade war remains a concern for investors. Beijing will reportedly be detailing its tariffs on U.S. imports later. In data, Japan’s March services PMI fell to a 50.9 reading, down from 51.7 in the previous month, and the composite PMI worked out at 51.3, down from 52.2 in February. Australian retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in February, double the median forecast, while building approvals came in near to expectations at -6.2% m/m. China’s Caixin March composite PMI sank to 51.8 from February’s 53.3.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Construction PMI – expected to ebb to a 51.0 reading after 51.4 in the month prior.

* EU CPI & Unemployment Rate – an acceleration in the headline inflation rate is expected up to 1.4% y/y *from 1.1% y/y in the previous month, with a slight risk to the upside after higher than anticipated Italian and French numbers.Unemployment Rate anticipated to slow down a bit at 8.5% from 8.6% last month.

* ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – should drop to 208K from February’s 235K.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI *– is seen declining to 59.0 after the 59.5 in March and the jump to 59.9 in February.

* Crude Oil Inventories

Support and Resistance levels

**

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 5, 2018

Date : 5th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.3 bp at 0.509% in opening trade, after a broad move higher in long yields across Asia. 10-year JGB yields are up 1.1 bp at 0.030%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.81%, as stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session after a late rally in the U.S. U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher, with the DAX future up 1.25% and pointing to early gains in the index, which still closed with a loss yesterday. Weaker than expected German manufacturing orders at the start of the session failed to dent optimism that an all out trade war can be avoided, although trade rhetoric will keep markets on tenterhooks and volatility high. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone and U.K. services PMIs as well as Eurozone producer prices and retail sales.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading firmer so far today, correlating with an improvement in risk appetite, with the flipside of the sentiment seeing the yen underperform moderately as the Japanese currency seeing some of its safe haven premium unwind. Japan’s Nikkie 225 closed with a 1.5% gain, while S&P futures are showing a 0.4% gain after the cash index closed out the regular session on Wall Street yesterday with a 1.2% advance. The view, or hope perhaps, is that the U.S. and China are more likely to negotiate than actually implement a trade war. The announced tariff hikes haven’t been implemented yet, and there is time in place for talks to happen. Proof will be in the pudding, however, and investors are likely to remain wary. USDJPY lifted above 107.00, logging a three-week high of 107.02. EURUSD ebbed under 1.2300, towards 1.2250, seemingly breaking free of the apparent orbit of recent sessions around the 1.2300 level. The greenback also posted gains versus the antipodean dollars and most currencies in the emerging and newly-development world.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Service PMI – The services reading is projected at 55.3 and is off of the 58.0 high from January. These would leave the composite at 55.5, lower than the 57.1 in February, as well as the 58.8 January high.

* UK Service PMI – anticipated t0 to slip to 54.0 from 54.5.

* Canadian Trade Balance – The trade deficit is expected to widen to -C$2.1 bln in February from -C$1.9 bln in January. Exports are seen improving 0.5% m/m after the 2.1% drop in January. Imports are projected to expand 0.8% after a 4.3% plunge.

* US Unemployment Claims *– *seem at 225K from 215K last week.

Support and Resistance levels

**

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 6, 2018

Date : 6th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.2 bp at 0.507% in early trade, trailing Treasuries, which are down -1.8 bp at 2.814%. European stock futures are selling off, led by the German DAX future, which is down -0.9%, in the wake of a sell off in U.S. futures after Trump threatened additional USD 100 bln worth of China tariffs. China was quick to threaten retaliation, and while reports of the willingness to talk on the side of the U.S. helped to lift Asian markets off early lows, sentiment remains fragile. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.36% in the end, the ASX was unchanged at the close, while the Hang Seng outperformed in catch up trade, after coming back from the holidays. Weaker than expected German production data at the start of the session did nothing to lift sentiment, leaving markets to mull trade developments ahead of key U.S. payroll data in the PM session.

FX Update: The dollar weakened and then firmed during the pre-London open session in Asia, with markets roiled by Trump’s threat for further tariffs against China and a retaliatory pledge to fight back by Beijing before finding some solace form a Reuters report citing a U.S. official saying that Washington was willing to negotiate if China “is serious.” USDJPY recouped to the mid 107.0s after logging a low of 106.99. The pair has remained below the six-week high posted yesterday at 107.49, which capped a three-day run higher. EURUSD traded lower after posting an intraday peak at 1.2260, logging a low of 1.2227, but the pair remain above yesterday’s low at 1.2218. Asian stocks lifted out of intraday lows, though European and U.S. equity index futures are firmly down, with Eurostoxx futures down 0.8% and S&P 500 futures off by over 1%. The offshore CNY extended lower, making $6.3043 today, with the 0.7% loss this week in the Chinese currency marking the biggest weekly decline since last October.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Employment Data – the employment report, *is expected to show a 25.0k in March after the 15.4k gain in February and 88.0k plunge in January. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a 40-year low 5.8%. Average hourly wages are projected to gain 0.3% in March (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% gain in February, boosting the annual growth rate to 3.4% in March from 3.1%. That would be firmest annual growth rate since the matching pace in November of 2015.

* US NFP data– 193K increase is anticipated *after the stellar 313k February surge. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 4.0%.

* US Average Hourly Earnings *–Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% after the tepid 0.1% prior gain, which calmed inflation anxiety that followed the strong 0.3% and 0.4% respective gains in January and December.

* BOE Gov Carney & Fed Chair Powell Speeches

Support and Resistance levels

**

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 9, 2018

Date : 9th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

It was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisers. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to lump on another $100 bln tariffs to the $50 bln already on the table. Fed Chairman Powell remained bullish on the economy in his speech on the outlook, suggesting “gradualism” remained intact, while in Q&A he felt it was premature to draw implications from the tariff threats either for inflation or growth.

United States: The calendar will home back in on inflation stats for March in a timely fashion, hot on the heels of the 0.3% uptick on average hourly earnings embedded in the March payrolls report. *PPI is forecast (Tuesday) rising 0.2% in March, though the annual pace will speed up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y. The core PPI is seen rising 0.2% as well versus 0.2% previously, with a steady 2.5% y/y. Wholesale sales are projected (Tuesday) to increase 0.6% in February *vs -1.1% in January, while inventories are seen 0.2% firmer. The MBA mortgage market report is out (Wednesday), along with overall March CPI expected to edge up 0.1% *vs 0.2%, with core CPI seen up 0.2%, as was the case in February. Annual rates should move a tad higher too, with the headline pace seen at 2.4% from 2.2% y/y, while the core rate firms to 2.1% from 1.8%. This will be the first 2-handle since March 2017, but it won’t trigger a response from the FOMC as CPI is not the Fed’s preferred measure. The Treasury budget deficit (Wednesday) may widen to $186 bln in March from $176 bln year-ago levels. Import prices are forecast (Thursday) to increase 0.4% in March versus February’s 0.4%, while export prices may rise 0.2%, the same as in February. Initial jobless claims are presumed to correct back down 17k to 225k for the week ended April 7 (Thursday). Rounding out the week (Friday) are Michigan sentiment and the Fed’s JOLTS job openings.

Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes will be highlights this week after the “gradualist” tone from Chairman Powell in Friday’s speech set the stage for steady policy near term. There are several Fedspeakers this week, but none are voters. Hawk Kaplan will be in Beijing and will be speaking Monday, The dove Kashkari will do another moderated Q&A Thursday. Rosengren, Bullard, and Kaplan will also be on the wires on Friday the 13th. The FOMC minutes to Powell’s first meeting in March as Chairman could be interesting.

Earnings season kicks off again from Thursday – Fastenal and BlackRock and then a rash of financial firms — Citigroup, First Republic Bank, Infosys, JP Morgan Chase, PNC Financial, Wells Fargo on Friday. Expectations are for strong results, and possible upside potential as the S&P 500 and the DJIA30 ended the week close to their 200 day moving averages.*

Canada: The calendar is headlined by the BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey (Monday), expected to reveal some slippage in business sentiment, a tighter capacity backdrop, increased labour shortages but still well contained inflation expectations. In other words, the report will be supportive of no change in the 1.25% rate setting next week. Housing starts (Monday) are projected to fall to 220.0k in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values are expected to dip 1.0% in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The new housing price index is seen falling 0.1% in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 3.0% m/m decline anticipated, as the rate of contraction moderates after the -6.5% fall in February and record 14.5% plunge in January.

Europe: Light calendar with mainly final inflation data for March, which are unlikely to hold major surprises. Expect HICP rates to be confirmed at 1.7% for France (Thursday), 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), 1.5% for German HICP (Friday) and 1.3% for Spain (Friday), which should leave the Eurozone HICP (due the following week) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February. *German trade data for February (Monday), as well as Eurozone trade which could well attract more interest than usual amid the ongoing trade tensions. Expectations are for a slight rise in German exports of 0.2% m/m, after the -0.5% m/m drop in January.

ECBspeak will be closely monitored. Officials are likely to continue to strike a balance with hawkish comments from Weidmann (Thursday) countered by softer tones from other central bankers scheduled to speak, including Draghi (Wednesday) and Constancio (Monday). The ECB also publishes the minutes of the March policy meeting, when the central bank decided to finally remove the easing bias on rates from the policy guidance.

Japan: The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,000 bln from 607.4 bln previously. March consumer confidence (Monday) is seen improving to 44.6 from 44.3. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 4.0% m/m from up 8.2%, while March PPI is forecast to slip to 1.9% y/y from 2.5%. The impact of the firmer JPY on inflation was likely offset by firmer crude oil prices. March bank loan figures are due Wednesday *and finally a speech for the BOJ’s Kuroda is set for Thursday.

UK: Fundamental leads have been blurred by inclement weather in the last data month, which largely accounted for the big misses in last week’s March PMI survey outcomes. The calendar this week kicks off with the BRC retail sales report for March (Monday), with expectations of *a 0.1% headline decline in the same-store figure. Industrial production for February is also up (Wednesday), with expectations of rises of 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. respectively). Trade data for February is also due (also Wednesday), where forecasts are for a GBP 11.9 deficit in the visible goods balance.

China: Release March loan growth and new yuan loans (likely Tuesday), with the former seen at an unchanged 12.8% y/y rate, and the latter at CNY 1,000 bln from 839.3 bln previously. March CPI (Wednesday) likely slipped to a 2.5% y/y pace after almost doubling to 2.9% in February from 1.5% in January. March PPI (Wednesday) is forecast at 3.3% y/y from 3.7%. The March trade report (Friday) will be of interest given all the fuss over trade and tariffs, though it won’t show any real effects. It should reveal a narrowed surplus of $29.0 bln from $33.7 bln in February.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “Regional Variation in a National Economy.” The Financial Stability Review is due Friday. Economic data is thin this week, but has housing investment (Thursday), expected to dip 0.5% in February after the 1.1% decline in January.*

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 10, 2018

Date : 10th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Conciliatory words on trade from China’s President Xi Jinping, who pledged greater openness in sectors from banking to auto manufactures while warning against a return to a “Cold War mentality” helped to calm nerves and underpinned stocks, while weighing on safe haven assets, especially in the U.S.. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.025%, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.6 bp and back above the 2.8% mark. Stock markets meanwhile have moved broadly higher, Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, the Hang Seng outperformed again and gained 1.12% so far and the CSI 300 is up 0.48%. U.S. stock futures are rallying and up more than 1% across, Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ, with the latter outperforming. Oil prices also benefited from the risk on environment and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. An all round risk on environment, then, at least for now.

FX Update: USDJPY edged out a two-session high following a fresh bout of general yen weakness. Chinese President Xi’s keynote speech earlier mollified investor anxieties by de-ratcheting the trade war rhetoric by pledging that Chinese economy will open up and will lower import tariffs on vehicles, and although details were limited, this managed to lift stock markets in Asia, along with U.S. and European stock index futures. The Nikkei 225 gained by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures were showing a 1.1% advance. The yen weakened against this backdrop as safe haven positions unwound. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 107.24 before settling slightly off here. The pair has support at 106.77-80.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* USA PPI *– It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 2.6% 3 from 2.5% last time. MoM figures are expected to see the headline slip to 0.1% from 0.2% and the key Core figure remain unchanged at 0.2%.

* CAD Housing Starts – Are expected to fall to 220.0k unit pace in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values, also due Tuesday, are expected to dip 1.0% (m/m, sa) in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The permits and starts reports lead a full week of housing data. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen falling 0.1% (m/m, sa) in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 18.0% y/y decline anticipated in March following the 16.9% y/y drop in February.

Support and Resistance levels

**

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM. · Apr 17, 2018

Date : 17th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2018.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stocks in Asia traded narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up a mere 0.02%, the ASX up 0.07% and Hang Seng and CSI 300, which tanked yesterday, underperforming once again and down -0.40% and -0.87% respectively, despite as expected GDP numbers out of China. China’s GDP grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 following the identical 6.8% y/y rise in Q4. GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures as comments from Praet seemed to confirm that the ECB is not ready to commit to an end date for QE just year. UK100 futures meanwhile are heading south ahead of labour market data. The calendar today also has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to correct further.Trade jitters and geopolitical risks continue to hang over markets and 10-year JGB yields are little changed at 0.30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield up 0.6 bp at 2.832%, as U.S. stock futures move higher.

FX Update: A dollar softening theme has been prevailing, with EURUSD printing a three-week high just above 1.2380 and USDJPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUDUSD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBA’s minutes to its April policy meeting, which was deemed as showing board members as being relatively less optimistic on the economy than before, helping cement the view that the central bank will likely be on hold through to 2019. There was a mix of other news, including as-expected GDP data out of China, of 6.8% y/y in Q1, an unexpected downward revision in the final release of Japanese February industrial production, to 0.0% m/m from the preliminary estimate of 4.1% m/m, and a report that North and South Korea are apparently set on discussing an official end to the war. Market participants are also gearing up for the meeting between Trump and Abe this week, which is expected to be conciliatory in tone as Trump’s face-to-face meetings with world leaders tends to be, especially with his softening tone on trade with China and NAFTA. Cable has punched out a fresh post-Brexit vote high above 1.4350, today marking the seventh consecutive higher high with markets expecting a perky wages reading in today’s labour market report, which along with tomorrow’s inflation data should seal expectations for the BoE to hike in May.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) –

* German ZEW – *expected to fall further, with heightened market volatility likely adding to the error margin for the forecasts. A reading of 2 in April is expected, down from 5.1 in March, while median forecast predicts a dip into negative territory, which would indicate that pessimists outnumber optimists. Anything short of a major surprise to the upside will add to concerns that growth momentum is already starting to slow down, while the ECB is mulling exit steps.

* Canadian Manufacturing Sales – February manufacturing is seen rebounding 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 1.0% drop in January.

* US Industrial Production – a 0.4% gain after surging 0.9% in February. Capacity utilization is projected t 77.9% from 77.7%. Risk to production is to the upside, however, given strong factory employment, and still robust manufacturing ISM and PMI data.

* FOMC Member Williams, Harker and Bostic Speak, along with Fed’s Quarles

Support and Resistance levels

**

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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