Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 13th April 2022.

Market Update – April 13 – Inflation & Earnings come into focus.


Yields lost their bid, USD held onto gains, Stocks were lifted by the hot US CPI headline data, (new 40-yr high at 8.5%) only to close the day in the red as the CORE figure missed and suggested the top for inflation may be coming sooner than expected. JPY (weak data) & EUR (Putin saying talks at “dead-end”). NZD jumped as RBNZ raised rates by 50bp (largest in 22-yrs). Oil recovered $100, Gold moved higher again.

• Stocks closed marginally lower after strong start. Asia markets stronger (Nikkei +1.68%) & UK & European FUTS marginally higher
• Yields rally cooled, 10-yr from top at 2.836% to close at 2.727% & now at 2.738%.
• EUR fell again after Putin comments.
• USD holds bid, NZD broke 0.6900 briefly as RBNZ said they were not changing their outlook, but just bringing forward rate hike cycle.
• Oil continued to recover and holds over $100 – Shanghai lockdowns ease further but record levels of new COVID infections nationwide.

Biden said Russia has committed Genocide, (additional $750m military aid to Ukraine to come) Putin said Russia will achieve its aims in Ukraine and that talks “have again returned to a dead-end situation for us”. Johnson & Sunak refuse to resign after being fined by the London Met. Police for breaking lockdown rules. More fines to come potentially. Brainard, (Fed Vice Chair), Birkin & Bullard all agreed that aggressive rate hikes were required but disagree what happens afterwards. Brainard sees weaker inflation and a return to pre-pandemic conditions, Birkin & Bullard see inflation, particularly wage inflation, being “sticky” for much longer.

Overnight – JPY Machine Orders & Money Supply miss significantly (-9.8% vs.-1.5%). China Trade Balance (surplus) more than doubles, Exports beat, Imports surprisingly fall. UK Inflation at 30-yr high CPI, (7.0%) CORE (5.7%) RPI (9.0%) & PPI 19.2% – all stronger than expected.

• USDIndex rallied to test new high 100.42 , trades at 100.34 now.
• US Yields 10-yr closed lower at 2.727%, up again now to 2.824%.
• Equities – USA500 -15.08 (-0.34%) at 4397. (A breach of 4400) – US500 FUTS 4418. TWTR (-5.38%) – Earnings Season kicks off today.
• USOil – Trades at $100.30 following a rally to $102.00, Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
• Gold – held $1950 yesterday and tested next resistance at $1975, back to $1970 now.
• Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to test 39k zone, recovered to 40k now.
• FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0810 earlier, (5-wk lows) now 1.0830. USDJPY breaks 126.00 to trade at 126.15 and Cable sinks back to test 1.2985 as USD bid continues and very hot inflation data weighs.

European Open – Asian stock markets mostly managed gains as markets digested US inflation data that weren’t quite as bad as feared, especially in the core reading. Mainland China bourses struggled though, as hope of easing virus restrictions faded and after trade data showed unexpected weakness in imports, which left the trade surplus higher than anticipated, but added to concern that the domestic economy is struggling with the official “No-Covid” policy. The CSI 300 is currently down -0.3%, the Hang Seng up 0.6%, however, with tech stocks recovering.

Today – US PPI, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoC Policy Announcement, IEA OMR, Earnings from BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.77%) Dipped to 1.5700 on RBNZ announcement, reversed quickly to test 1.5935 now. Next resistance 1.5970 & 1.6000. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & over 0, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00357, Daily ATR 0.01640.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th April 2022.

Market Update – April 14 – “Peak Inflation?” & Ms. Lagarde.


Yields stabilized lower, USD cooled significantly and Stocks bounced back. BOC added 50 bp to their base rate and warned of more to come. USDCAD sank from 1.2675 down to sub 1.2500. USDJPY hit a 20-year high over 126.00. US PPI lifted to all-time highs (11.2%) following 40-yr highs for CPI (8.5%) on Tuesday. All 13 measures of UK Inflation were higher than expected with CPI at 30-yr highs (7.0%) and a strong CORE (ex. Fuel & Food) at 5.7%, RPI 9.0% (important for wage settlements) and PPI 19.2%.

• Stocks higher (NASDAQ +2.0%) Asia markets stronger too (Nikkei +1.18%) & UK & European FUTS also higher
• Yields rally cooled further, 10-yr closed at 2.69% & now at 2.712%.
• USDIndex cooled from 100.50 highs & trades 99.60 now.
• Equities – USA500 +49 (+1.12%) at 4446. – US500 FUTS 4452. Delta Airlines (+6.21%), AAL (+10.62%). JPM (-3.22%) a miss for Trading volumes. Big Tech bounced (AMZN +3.15%)
• Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $103 & $1975 respectively.
• Bitcoin recovered from 39k zone on Tuesday to 41k now.
• FX markets – EURUSD recovered from 1.0808 lows (5-wk+ lows) to now 1.0915. USDJPY cooled from 126.30 20-yr high to trade at 125.40 and Cable recovered from 1.2972 lows to 1.3140 now.

Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, (brings total to 2.5bn). Xi says sticking to tough COVID curbs will bring victory. Markets not convinced. PBOC rate cut imminent? Japan Fin Min. says country has not emerged from deflation, & 76% of Japanese business worried about the weak YEN damaging the economy. Finland & Sweden on brink of NATO membership. Sri Lanka about to default on debt, first of many low income nations?

Overnight – More peak inflation news ?? AUD job growth missed (17.9k vs 30.0k & 77.4k last time) & Unemployment rose (4.0% vs 3.9% & 3.9%). CHF PPI missed and UK House Inflation also slipped.

ECB Preview – Record high inflation and hawkish comments from some council members have left markets positioned for at least one rate hike from the ECB later in the year. However, with no sign that the war in Ukraine will be over any time soon and the sanctions against Russia already starting to cloud over the growth outlook, we suspect that chief economist Lane will want to keep a lid on tightening expectations today. Lane already warned against an “overreaction” to the surge in inflation and that the initial inflationary pressure from a supply shock “should decline over time”. He also highlighted the “significant risks to growth” from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, while saying that “the best way that monetary policy can navigate this uncertainty is to emphasize the principles of optionality, gradualism and flexibility“. Lane is also keeping a close eye on spreads as the end of the PEPP program last month has kept peripheral vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion and even suggested that the PEPP program could be revived if necessary. Judging by ECB data released yesterday, the ECB has already blown much of the monthly APP purchases over the first two weeks of the month, clearly also in an attempt to keep a lid on yields and Lane will likely be arguing against an overly hawkish signal today that would further fuel rate hike speculation. That means the event risk is a more balanced statement than markets currently expect. – Action Economics

Today – US Weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & UoM Sentiment, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.50%) Recovered from 0.6756 lows following RBNZ announcement, to close at 0.6796, testing 0.6830 now. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6875. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & over 0, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00099, Daily ATR 0.00703.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th April 2022.

Market Update – April 15 – Stocks Sink, Yields Rally, EUR & JPY Pressured.


USD & Yields rallied significantly, and Stocks sank into long Easter weekend. EURUSD tanked under 1.0800 after ECB confirmed QE is set to end in Q3, but Lagarde was cagey on the actual timing and on the prospect of rate hikes. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high over 126.50. US Claims missed (185k vs 172K), but remain historically low. Retail Sales were better (+0.5% headline, +1.1% ex-autos & big net upward revisions). UoM Consumer Sentiment surprised to the upside (65.7 vs 59.1). Trade prices beat – record-high 4.5% for exports & 11-yr high of 2.6% for imports. All 4-big banks beat earnings expectations but profits fell and shares varied from Citi +1.55% to Wells Fargo -4.51%. Musk moved to buy Twitter, markets not convinced, but he has a “Plan B” if it fails apparently.

• Stocks lower (NASDAQ +2.14%) Asia markets weaker too (Nikkei -0.31%) with UK & Europe closed today & Monday.
• Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved form 2.69% to close at 2.82%
• USDIndex rallied from lows at 99.50 to highs at 100.75 & trades 100.26 now.
• Equities – USA500 -54 (-1.21%) at 4392. – US500 FUTS closed at 4388. TWTR -1.68% ( +13% pre-market when news broke) TSLA -3.66%, APPL -3.00% NVDA -4.26%, AMD -4.79%.
• Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $105 & $1970 respectively.
• Bitcoin sank to 39k zone again from over 41k, trades at 40k now.
• FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0757 lows yesterday. USDJPY trades at new 20-yr highs at 125.60 and Cable tumbled a whole big number to 1.3050 from 1.3150 yesterday.

Overnight – Mester (hawk) – Job market is “very tight” & inflation is “very elevated”. Williams (centratist) a 50 bp rate increase is a “very reasonable option,” PBOC did not cut interest rates as had been broadly expected.

Today – French CPI in-line at +1.4% m/m. Empire State Manu. Index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.65%) Continues to rally posting new 20-yr highs over 126.60. Next resistance 126.75 & 127.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.151, Daily ATR 1.71.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provi ded is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th April 2022.

Market Update – April 18.


USD boomed, breaching 100.70, Yields rallied significantly, Stocks sank amid thin trade into holiday-extended weekend. The potential aggressive 50 bp rate hikes from the FOMC in May, and likely June too, kept markets cautious. China’s PBoC announced a 25 bp reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for big banks, and 50 bp for smaller banks, on the heels of Wednesday’s call from the State Council for such action. It will take effect on April 25. China’s GDP expanded by 4.8% in Q1. USDJPY had a short lived rally this morning to 126.78, before both Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki voiced concerns. – “Kuroda made clear on Monday that while a weak yen could impact corporate profits, it was premature to debate any exit from that easy policy.”

• Stocks lower (NASDAQ at 4360.88) Nikkei closed down 1.08% at 26,799.71 on Monday with US, China and Japan the only ones open today.
• USDIndex retests 100.70 highs.
• Equities – USA500 at 4360 lows.
• Oil gapped up to $108.54 over supply concerns again as Libya halted operations at El Feel oilfield due to protests, and US oil drilling, output moving higher with energy prices.
• Gold spiked to $1990 – Thin liquidity, firm yields risk aversion?
• Bitcoin sank to 38,444.
• FX markets – Yen 10% weaker since beginning of March. EURUSD steady below 1.0800 (2-year lows), Cable tumbled at 1.3017, AUDUSD near 1-month low at 0.7350 (breaking 50-day SMA).

Today – Comments from Fed Chair Powell, BOE Bailey and ECB President Lagarde on Thursday will be interesting but we do not expect any new ground to be broken. There is little on this week’s calendar data-wise and today’s slate has just the NAHB housing market index. There is Fedspeak from Bullard.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+1.40%) Breached R1 at 25.90. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 58 but flattenning, H1 ATR 0.1021, Daily ATR 0.556.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th April 2022.

Market Update – April 19 – Markets are back.


Markets are back today. European as well as US stock futures are moving higher, after a mixed close across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Heightened geopolitical risks weighed on confidence and mainland China bourses failed to get a real boost from the PBoC’s pledge to support the economy. The Ukraine war and central bank moves will remain in focus, amid further signs of weakening growth and rising inflation in particular in Europe. Hawkish IMF and World Bank meetings are a highlight this week and the World Bank already slashed its growth forecast. RBA: closer to raising interest rates for the first time in more than a decade due to accelerating inflation.

The World Bank lowered its forecast for 2022 growth. The markets also monitored a Goldman Sachs estimate of a 35% risk for a recession over the next two years. – 15-month crisis response package of around $170 bln.

• Yields – The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.6 bp at 2.85%, while the German 10-year has lifted 2.1 bp to 0.86%, after the extended break.
• Stocks waffled between gains and losses through the session, but finally settled slightly lower with losses of -0.1% on the Dow and NASDAQ, and a -0.02% dip in the USA500. Nikkei closed 0.7% higher. China bourses underperformed and the Hang Seng plunged -2.5% after returning from the extended weekend.
• USDIndex remains on bid, at 100.99 highs.
• Oil edged up to $109.81, from an overnight low of $106 amid the continued supply-demand tug of war. Supply was more of a focal point as two Libyan ports were shut amid anti government protests and the National Oil Corporation declared a force majeure on loadings. Currently steady above $107.00.
• Bitcoin spiked to $41,223.
• FX markets – EURUSD choppy around 1.0780, Cable tumbled below 1.3000, AUDUSD +0.3% supported by RBA minutes at 0.7385.

Today – There is little on this week’s calendar data-wise and today’s slate has just the Housing Starts and Building permits from US. There is Fedspeak from Evans and SNB’s Chairman Jordan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+1.40%) Breached 102.00. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 91 but flattening, H1 ATR 0.197, Daily ATR 0.892.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th April 2022.

Market Update – April 20 – USD slips, Stocks rally, Yields hold, Gold & Oil dive.


USD slipped from highs, Yields held onto gains, Stocks rallied and Gold & Oil dived. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high at 129.40 before a sharp reverse. Kashkari (Dove) re: Inflation, Fed will “have to do more” The IMF & World Bank significantly cut global economic growth. Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.15%), Netflix lost 200k subscribers in Q1, (first subscriber loss in 10 years) shares dived -18% after hours having gained +3.18% at the close. Asian Markets broadly higher (Nikkei +0.86%), Chinese markets lower.

• USDIndex spiked over 101.00 & trades at 100.75 as USD cools & Yields hold up.
• Equities – USA500 +70 (+1.61%) at 4462. – Recovering 4400. US500FUTS lower at 4438. NFLX will be marked lower on open after subscriber decline and weak outlook. AAL & UAL gained +5.66% & +4.5% respectively.
• Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved within a smidge of 3.00% earlier from a close at 2.913%
• Oil & Gold both tumbled from Monday highs. USOil tanked from $109.75 to under $102 and trades at $102.80 now. Gold fell from $2 short of $2000 to $1940 now.
• Bitcoin recovered from 39.5k on Monday to over 41.3k now.
• FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0760 lows yesterday. USDJPY cooled from decade highs to trade at 128.65 and Cable recovered from 1.2980 lows to 1.3025 now.

Overnight – Japan – big miss for Trade balance (-0.90T vs -.058T) (Imports higher due to Energy costs, Exports down due to China lockdowns), Industrial Activity missed significantly (-1.35 vs +0.3%). PBOC did not move rates again, German PPI hotter again (+4.9% vs 1.4% last month).

Today – EZ Industrial Production, Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, French Election TV Debate, Speeches from Fed’s Daly & Evans. Earnings ASML (beat) Carrefour, Danone (beat), Heineken, P&G and United Airlines.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.55%) Rallied from lows under 0.7340 yesterday to 0.7430 highs today. Next resistance 0.7450. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 65 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0071.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st April 2022.

Market Update – April 21 – Yields & USD Cool, NFLX & TSLA grab the headlines.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD continued to unwind, Yields dipped on profit taking and moved lower, Stocks very mixed; worst was NASDAQ -1.22%, NFLX -35%, FB -7.7%, IBM +7.10% and TSLA –4.96% (but recovered all of that after hours). Asian Markets also mixed (Nikkei +1.24%, Shanghai -1.77%). Oil & Gold tested key support areas before recovering. Fed officials Daly & Evans talk 50 bp hike necessary in May.

The West is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine. Ukraine calls for talks on Mariupol withdrawal, Russia tests new ICBM in show of strength says Mariupol will fall on Thursday. Macron & Le-Pen TV face to face – no clear winner but Macron came out better. World faces hunger ‘catastrophe’ as food prices could rise by up to 37% from invasion. Xi, Modi & Serbia restate opposition to Russian sanctions. Johnson in India, calls dealing with Putin like dealing with a “crocodile”.

• USDIndex spikes lower to 100.20 from a test of 101.00 yesterday as USD & Yields cool.
• Equities – USA500 -2.76 (-0.06%) at 4459. – Holds 4400. US500FUTS tick higher at 4470. NFLX wipe out (down –67.7% from Nov. highs as Pandemic stay at home winners suffer.) Ackman’s Pershing Square fund sold entire stake losing $430m from January $1.1 bln investment. TSLA significantly beat EPS & Revenue, profit up $3.3bln, deliveries up 68% at 310K, & supply chains not an apparent problem. MUSK pockets $23bln on results.
• Yields moved significantly lower following 10-yr closed at 2.84% from the attempt at 3% earlier in the week. Trades at 2.87% now
• Oil & Gold both had a volatile session pressured lower. USOil tested under $100.00 and trades at $103.40 now, having tumbled from $109.40 this week. Gold fell to test $1940 zone and trades at $1950 now, having rejected $2000 this week.
• Bitcoin continued to recover from sub 38.5k on Monday to over 41.6k now.
• FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0850 and now tests 1.0900 zone. USDJPY cooled from decade highs to trade at 128.00 and Cable recovered from 1.3000 lows to 1.3075 now.

Overnight – NZD – surprise miss for CPI (1.8% vs 2.0% & 1.4%) PBOC reduced Yuan to November lows after holding off Intertest rate changes.

Today – EZ CPI (Final), US Weekly Claims & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey & Mann. Earnings from Meggitt, Nestle (in-line), American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.67%) Rallied from lows under 1.5930 yesterday to 1.6055 highs today. Next resistance 1.6100. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0031, Daily ATR 0.01571.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th April 2022.

Market Update – April 26 – Fragile Sentiment.


Sentiment stabilised, after a mostly gloomy session for stocks yesterday. Wall Street got a late boost. Across the Asia Pacific region, the ASX underperformed in catch up trade, after returning from yesterday’s holiday, though global growth fears stoked by China’s strict COVID-19 curbs and an expected streak of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening sapped risk appetite. Wall Street surged and closed with gains, as Twitter jumped sharply on news Elon Musk finalized his purchase for some $44 bln. The late pop on Wall Street pulled rates up. Treasury yields are up from early double-digit lows. Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed to just CHF 1.8 bln in March, from CHF 5.5 bln in February. The UK government reported a GBP13.1 bln deficit in March this year, less than markets had expected, but still the second-highest number for March.

• Yields closed in the green but well off of double-digit lows early in the day when the market caught a flight to safety bid. The 5-year finished 2 bps lower at 2.845%, with the wi 2-year down 2 bps to 2.650%, and the 10-year off 1.3 bps to 2.806%. Bund yields are backing up and the German 10-year rate has lifted 2.9 bp to 0.86%.
• Stocks – The USA100 has climbed over 1.29%, while expectations for solid gains from Microsoft on Tuesday added to the rally. The USA30 and USA500 closed with gains of 0.70% and 0.57% as well after trading in the red much of the day as growth concerns weighed heavily, with a steep slide in energy. Nikkei lifted 0.4%.
• USDIndex remains on bid, at 101.85 highs.
• Oil prices dropped by 4% at $95.05 but added 0.89% to $99.42 a barrel currently. Worries over China’s fuel demand were soothed by the central bank’s pledge to support an economy hit by renewed COVID-19 curbs.
• Gold dipped to $1890 more than 2-month support.
• FX markets – USDJPY dropped back to 1.2787, although AUD and NZD and to a lesser extent the CAD outperformed, after being pressured yesterday. EUR and Sterling remain at low levels against the USD, with Cable at 1.2740 and EURUSD at 1.0710.

Today – This week’s calendar is loaded with key data, events, and earnings that will give hawks and doves plenty of ammunition and keep the markets in flux. Today focus turns to US Durable goods and Consumer Confidence.



Biggest FX Mover @(07:30 GMT) USDZAR (+0.94%) Breached 15.82. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but very close to neutral zone, RSI 67 and rising, H1 ATR 0.05376, Daily ATR 0.2097.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th April 2022.

Market Update – April 27 – Aggressive central bank moves hanging over markets.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Concern over aggressive tightening moves has resurfaced and Australia’s 10-year yield declined, as the short end of the curve was pressured by a jump in headline inflation which lifted to 5.1% y/y in Q1 – the highest level since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in the early 2000s. Stocks not surprisingly struggled, although mainland China bourses finally bounced back. Gold was back in demand temporarily and Oil prices backed up, with USOIL at $102.46 now. The Yen sold off, while the USDIndex is moving further above the 102 level. Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

• The 10-year Treasury yield is up 4.4 bp, with the curve flattening as the short end underperformed.
• Stocks – Nikkei and ASX meanwhile corrected -1.2% and -0.8% respectively with tech stocks under pressure after the weaker close on Wall Street yesterday. USA100 cratered -3.95%. The USA500 dropped -2.81% and the USA30 sunk -2.38%. GER40 and UK100 are slightly higher at the moment, but underperforming versus US futures.
• Earnings have been mixed but the advent of the key reports ahead left a very cautious environment. While a lot of reports have been better than expected, Q2 outlooks have been cut while guidance has been uncertain. Alphabet was down about 3%, GE disappointed and was the poster child for the headwinds, revealing supply chains problems, rising costs, and shortages of materials and labour.
• USDIndex remains on bid, at 102.52 highs.
• Oil spiked to 102.96, as Russia, which has been demanding payments for its gas in roubles as sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine bite, said it will halt supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday.
• Gold back below $1900.
• FX markets – USDJPY over the 128 mark again, EURUSD extends to 1.0615, GBPUSD steady to the downside at 1.2558, USDCAD to 1.2828 highs.

Today – ECB’s President Lagarde speech, BoC’s Rogers speech, BoC’s Governor Macklem speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.29%) Breached 92. MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher close to neutral zone, RSI at 45, all signalling a pullback. H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 1.195.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th April 2022.

Market Update – April 28 – USD Dominates with FX Markets in Focus.


USDJPY rockets higher with 130.00 in the cross-hairs as BOJ leaves main policy steady, to hold 10yr JGB ceiling at 0.25%, while JPY was clobbered across the board again. AUDJPY back to 92.00, GBPJPY 162.00, EURJPY 136.40. The markets continued to mull the implications of the stand off between the EU and Russia over payment modalities for Russian gas deliveries.

• The front on a gradual ban of Russian oil imports has hardened, as Russia upped the ante, but while the EU urged a united front on Russian demands for ruble payments, the European Commission last week seemed open to companies finding ways to tally Moscow’s demands with the EU’s sanctions against Putin and that is what many companies are doing now. In the end it seems unlikely that gas supplies to the EU will stop immediately, although governments will work even harder to become independent of Russian deliveries as soon as possible.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is down –1.1 bp to 2.82%, while JGBs were supported after the BOJ.
• Stocks – ASX lifted 1.2%, and the Hang Seng 0.5%, but the CSI 300 is currently down -0.4%, with Covid developments still in focus. US futures are also higher, with a 1.3% rise in the USA100 leading the way.
• Earnings – Strong earnings from Microsoft and Visa. Facebook owner Meta beat Wall Street forecasts and said it had eked out user growth, sending its shares up almost 20% after hours. Microsoft MSFT.O shares rallied as well. Google-parent Alphabet Inc GOOGL.O fell 3.6% as slowing YouTube ad sales pushed quarterly revenue below expectations. Boeing Co BA.N dropped 7.5% after it disclosed $1.5 billion in abnormal costs from halting 777X production.
• USDIndex the main leader, at 103.70 highs.
• Oil is currently trading at $101.08, with yesterday’s gains already erased. China’s capital Beijing closed some public spaces and stepped up checks at others on Thursday, as most of the city’s 22 million residents embarked on more COVID-19 mass testing aimed at averting a Shanghai-like lockdown.
• Gold drifts to $1885.
• FX markets – Developments are hurting the EUR, which has dropped below 1.0500, while EURGBP fell towards the 0.8394 mark. GBPUSD is also under pressure amid general Dollar strength. AUD and NZD were on the ropes as worries about a recession in Europe and a slowdown in China engulfed risky assets and overwhelmed the promise of rising interest rates at home.

Today – Inflation reports for Germany and Spain are due today, as well as confidence data for Italy.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+1.68%) breached 101.90. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI at 82, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.277, Daily ATR 1.15.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th April 2022.

Market Update – April 29.


Risk appetite surged as optimism over earnings more than overshadowed concerns over the 8% pop in the y/y GDP price gauge and the -1.4% print on Q1 GDP. The contraction in growth was seen as a one-off, however, due to trade disruptions limiting supply alongside a surge in demand following the pandemic, with inventory drawdowns contributing negatively too. Stock markets remained supported overnight, with hopes of support measures in China helping to underpin sentiment, after China vowed to underpin the health of so-called platform firms. Meanwhile, the pick-up in core PCE inflation to a 5.2% y/y pace from 5.0% y/y was also seen on the light side and hence supported notions that prices may be topping out.

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are down -2.5 bp at 0.87% in early trade, with Eurozone bonds paring some of yesterday’s losses and yields coming down as the unexpected stagnation in French GDP at the start of the year highlighted that there are still reasons for the ECB to remain cautious even as inflation is going through the roof. German import price inflation jumped to 31.2% y/y in March, from 26.3% y/y in the previous month.

• Yields are coming down from yesterday’s highs. The 2-year yield rose over 5 bps to test 2.68% and the 10-year challenged 2.90% before drifting back to 2.63% and 2.85%, respectively.
• Stocks – GER40 and UK100 futures are up around 1.0%, USA100 soared 3.06% on the day, with the USA500 2.47% higher, while the USA30 climbed 1.85%, but all off of late peaks. Japan is closed for a holiday, the ASX up 1.1% at the close.
• Earnings – Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth; Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue; Apple Inc, the world’s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.
• USDIndex lost some of its recent gains, currently at 103.15.
• Oil at $106.42. Oil prices meanwhile moved higher as overall confidence improved and fears over China’s Covid measures eased somewhat.
• Gold back above $1900.
• FX markets – EUR and Sterling also found some buyers, but while EURUSD and Cable are up from yesterday’s lows, they are still looking pretty weak at currently 1.0548 and 1.2530 respectively. USDJPY still held above the 130.

Today – German and Eurozone GDP are still to come and Eurozone inflation data are also due, while in the US session eyes are on PCE and Canadian GDP. Exxon and Chevron earnings on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGEUR (+1.27%) breached 22.20. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram turned positive, RSI at 62, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.509.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd May 2022.

Market Update – May 2 – USD hold gains, China data dives, Stocks tank.


USD continues to hold onto recent gains, Stocks crashed (NASDAQ -4.17% Friday to close a miserable April and register its biggest daily loss since September and a weekly loss of -3.9%), Asian markets weaker (many closed due to Eid holidays) and European FUTS down over 1.5%. (UK closed today). Yields jumped higher and VIX soared over 7% to 31.30. Oil & Gold both rallied and then gave up all their gains. Weekend data – Chinese Manu & Services PMI’s (47.4 vs 49.5 & 41.9 vs. 48.4) the worst in 2 yrs as lockdowns grip the economy. Berkshire Hathaway invested over $51bn in Q1 inc. Chevron (over $21bn), Occidental ($10bn), HP ($4.2bn) & Alleghany ($11.6bn). US House speaker, Pelosi visited Ukraine promising support ‘until fight is done’.

• USDIndex cooled to under 103.00 on Friday, closed at 103.18, and is back to 103.45, now. April opened at 98.29, a near 5% gain.
• Equities – USA500 -155.57 (-3.63%) at 4131. – US500FUTS at 4145 now. AMZN -14.05%, INTEL -6.94% MSFT & NFLX -4%, APPL -3.66%. Nasdaq lost -13% in April (worst since 2008 Fin. Crisis) S&P500 has lost -13% in 2022 (the worst Jan-April since 1939). 50% of S&P500 companies have reported this Earnings season and 81% have exceeded expectations (average 66%). But outlooks (partic. from AZMN & APPL) have weighed. Volatility is back too, Jan-April there were 33 days with +/- 2% daily moves, in all of 2021 there were just 24.
• Yields moved significantly higher 10-yr closed at 2.887%. Up 1.96% today, at 2.942
• Oil & Gold both had a volatile session moved higher and then reversed to trade lower today. USOil tested to $108.00 on Friday but trades at $103.85 now. Gold tested $1920 zone Friday and trades at $1885 now, below key $1900 handle.
• Bitcoin declined from $40k on Friday to sub $38k to test $39k now.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.0525, USDJPY up from 129.40 to 133.30 now and Cable recovered to 1.2550 now from 1.2410 lows on Friday.

Overnight – JPY – Consumer Confidence missed 33 vs 34.9 and Final Manu PMI in line at 53.5.

Week Ahead – The focus remains on inflation and the much anticipated response from the FOMC, RBA and BOE this week, while the markets price in action from the ECB down the road. The advent of month-end, a holiday in Japan on Friday, and the UK shut today accelerated some profit taking on Wall Street after the early rally. It looks as though many are sidelined into the weekend and ahead of the FOMC where there is a lot of uncertainty over the aggressiveness of the Fed’s normalization path, and the BOE’s ambiguity. Hiking rates too much too quickly would only increase the risk of a stagflation scenario and the BOE’s current policy is already much closer to neutral than the ECB’s. The week also sees NFP, and employment data from Canada, Europe and New Zealand.

Today – German Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing, EU Energy Ministers meeting, (Hungary would veto sanctions on Russian energy) Earnings from Italgas, Holidays in UK, China and many Asian countries.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%) Rallied from lows under 1129.40 Friday to 130.45 highs today. Next resistance 130.50 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 54 & rising, H1 ATR 0.263, Daily ATR 1.38.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th May 2022.

Market Update – May 6 – Massive U-turn ahead of NFP.


The markets did a big U-turn after Wednesday’s post-FOMC rally, and the pop in rates hammered Wall Street. Along with positioning, the recent massive swings in the markets and mostly bearish tones have been fostered by escalating fears over inflation, an overly aggressive tightening path from the Fed, and increasing angst over slowing growth, in other words, “stagflation.” That potential was imbedded in the Q1 productivity report that revealed near record contraction in productivity as well as unit labour costs, leaving a hollow ring to Chair Powell’s beliefs that the Fed can tame inflation and that the economy can achieve a “softish” landing with a “significant chance” of avoiding a “significant slowdown, or a big jump in unemployment.”

RBA flags further tightening ahead. The RBA said in its quarterly monetary policy report that it will need to raise interest rates further, against the background of tightening labour markets that risk triggering a wage price spiral.

• USDIndex at a 5th winning week – breached 103.95. Currently at 103.84 ahead of US jobs report that is likely to back the case for aggressive monetary policy tightening.
• Equities – was crushed by the revived hawkish outlook and the pop in yields. The USA100 dove over -5% but finished with a -4.99% decline. The USA500 tumbled -3.56%, with the USA30 -3.12% lower.
• Yields 10-year up 17 bps to 3.105%, with the 2-year up 10 bps to 2.738%.
• Oil climbed to 111.36 high, after the Biden administration outlined a plan to refill oil reserves (SPR). But it has dropped right back down to 109.34. Reportedly, the Department of Energy will put out a tender for 60 mln barrels in the fall, according to an unnamed source. But the purchases will be at some time in the future, which saw the price fall back. Having the government an assured buyer should provide some support. Meanwhile, the looming EU ban on Russian oil imports and the less hawkish than feared FOMC result have helped calm fears. There were no surprises from OPEC which stuck to its plan for a modest hike in output.
• Gold drifted back to 1866 as the USD and Treasury yields rallied.
• Bitcoin tumbled 8% overnight, hitting at 35,278.
• FX markets – EURUSD at 1.0508, USDJPY holds above the 130.50, Cable down to 1.2333. AUD turns below 0.7100.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.73%) declined in the EU open at 1.2157, with next support to 1.2114. MAs & Stochastics bearishly crossed, and RSI is at 36 sloping lower. H1 ATR 0.00169, Daily ATR 0.01081.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.