HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 7th March 2025.

How Will Gold React After Today’s Non-Farm Employment Change?

As the US employment data approaches, Gold continues to trade sideways showing range-bound trading conditions. This is primarily due to investors waiting for further data to determine Gold’s intrinsic value. How will today’s Non-Farm Payroll release influence the price of Gold?

Will Gold Break Out of Its Range After Today’s NFP Release?​

The Non-Farm Employment Change will be in the spotlight as investors expect the figure to remain relatively low. However, traders are also focused on the Unemployment Rate and Average Monthly Earnings. If this afternoon’s employment data reads similar to current expectations, the price of Gold may continue witnessing range-bound trading conditions. In this scenario, the average price of the past three days would be key. The average price is currently $2,913.70.

Whereas, if the NFP indicates an employment sector which continues to show resilience and strong data, the price of Gold may witness a decline. This is mainly due to strong employment data strengthening the USD, boosting the US stocks, and reducing 2025 rate cuts. If the price of Gold is to decline, Moving Averages indicate the price could fall between $2,899.00 and $2,906.75 in the short term. However, this would depend on how much stronger the employment data is.
On the other hand, if the Unemployment Rate rises and the Non-Farm Employment Change falls below 155,000, Gold could quickly regain momentum. The weaker employment data would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March or could make a cut certain for May 2025. As a result, the weaker US Dollar could support Gold as well as the market’s lower risk appetite. Gold’s safe haven status can come into play if data is significantly weaker.

US Employment Sector​

Yesterday’s labour market data showed initial jobless claims rose to 221,000, lower than the expected 234,000 and the previous 242,000. The four-week average increased slightly to 224,250, while total benefit recipients climbed from 1.855 million to 1.897 million, exceeding the 1.88 million forecast. However, the main negativity came from the ADP Employment Change which fell to 77,000, the lowest in three years.
The labour market remains under pressure, showing signs of cooling. If Friday’s federal data confirms this trend, the chances of Gold reaching the $3,000 target set by Wall Street increases.

China Continues Boosting Gold Demand!​

China has launched a pilot program allowing ten national insurance companies to invest in gold through standard contracts, limited to 1% of their available assets. The country continues to be one of the countries driving demand for the commodity significantly higher along with Russia, India and Turkey. With industry revenues exceeding $700 billion, even modest investments could boost global demand for gold by 1.5–2.0% according to reports.

Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis​

The White House announced a one-month delay on the 25% tariff for vehicles under the USMCA trade agreement. Economists also advise that the US is looking to negotiate with both Canada and Mexico on trade policies. If an agreement is made, the price of Gold may decline due to a stronger US Dollar and higher market sentiment. Currently, the US Dollar Index trades 0.37% lower and is the worst-performing currency of the day which is a positive for Gold.
In terms of technical analysis and price action, the asset has been witnessing range-bound conditions between $2,891 and $2,929.85. If these conditions are to continue the average price of $2,913.70 will be key and may be continuously hit. However, the price remains slightly above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA indicating a slight bullish bias. The instrument is also trading above the VWAP and RSI 50.00 level which is another positive for bullish traders.

Join today’s Live Analysis Session:​

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Gold remains range-bound as investors await US employment data, with the NFP release likely to determine its next move. Analysts expect the US to add a further 159,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.00%.
• Strong employment data could strengthen the US Dollar and push Gold lower. While weaker data may boost Gold by increasing Fed rate cut expectations.
• China’s new gold investment program and ongoing demand from Russia, India, and Turkey could further drive global gold prices higher.
• Technical indicators suggest a slightly bullish bias, but Gold remains within a defined range between $2,891 and $2,929.85, with $2,913.70 as a key level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 10th March 2025.

SNP500 Hits a 6-Month Low: Trade Policy & Recession Fears Weigh on Market`s.

The SNP500 completes a 3-week decline and falls to its lowest price since September 2024. The price continues to remain under pressure from President Trump’s trade policy. In addition to this, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about a potential US recession.

SNP500 - Trade Policy and The Federal Reserve’s View On The Economy​

The US Non-Farm Employment data on Friday read lower than what analysts were expecting. However, the data does not yet indicate a recession. Investors are increasingly showing a lower risk appetite and cautiousness due to Trump’s trade policy on China, Mexico and Canada. The NFP Change read 151,000, 8,000 lower than predictions and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1%.
The poor price movement is more driven by comments from the US President. Yesterday evening on Fox News, the US President addressed concerns about a potential US recession, advising the economy will undergo ‘a period of transition.’ However, some see this as a subtle warning of a short economic downturn. Though the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is taking a different tone and looking to reassure the market.

Mr Jerome Powell advises the FOMC is not expecting or worried about a US recession. ‘The US economy remains in a strong position despite heightened uncertainty,’ Powell stated at a University of Chicago event. He also said that sentiment readings have been a reliable tool for predicting consumption growth in recent years. ‘There is no need to rush, we are in a good position to wait for more clarity,’ was his answer to questions about interest rates.
On the one hand, the SNP500 may witness support from the positive comments from the Fed regarding the economy. He also clarified that certain economic indicators are not predicting a recession regardless of the lower figures. However, the comments on interest rates and keeping them unchanged for a longer period can pressure the price of the index.

Will The SNP500 Continue Declining?​

The FedWatch tool indicated a 92% chance of a pause in this month’s Fed Rate Decision, but the figure has risen to 97%. If the possibility of a rate cut continues to be unlikely in the near future, the SNP500 may continue to remain under pressure. Currently, the VIX, an index used as an indication of risk, is trading more than 4.00% higher. For this reason, the VIX continues to indicate a poor performance in the short-term.
Asian and European indices are trading lower this morning as are US indices. As a result, the performance of the global stock market shows a ‘risk off’ sentiment.

SNP500 - Technical Analysis​

The price of the SNP500 is currently trading 0.73% lower and gains bearish momentum as the European market opens. In the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main Moving Averages and VWAP. The index also remains within the ‘sell’ zone of the RSI and MACD. On the 3-minute chart, the price remains below the 200-bar SMA and sell signals may continue to materialize for as long as the price remains below this level.

Key Takeaways:​

• The SNP500 has declined for three consecutive weeks, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The main cause of pressure is from Trump’s trade policies and recession concerns.
• Weaker-than-expected US employment data raised caution. However, the Fed reassured markets, stating there is no imminent recession and no rush to adjust interest rates.
• The FedWatch tool now shows a 97% chance of a rate pause, reducing hopes for near-term cuts.
• Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum, with the index trading below key moving averages and remaining in the sell zone on RSI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 11th March 2025.

Recession Fears Grow as Market Sell-Off Deepens.

Recession fears escalated following weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who described the US as being in a "period of transition" when questioned about economic risks. Concerns over tariffs and their global economic impact have heightened uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. A JPMorgan model recently indicated a 31% market-implied probability of a US recession, while a similar Goldman Sachs model suggests rising recession risks. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings guidance from major firms, including big tech companies, has fueled a bearish market outlook.
Broader market fears are compounding the downturn. Investors remain wary of economic recession signals, exacerbated by trade uncertainties and shifting fiscal policies. The S&P 500 has erased its post-election gains, and speculative assets—including crypto-linked stocks and ETFs—are facing aggressive sell-offs.

Stock Market Plunge: Major Indexes in the Red​

The NASDAQ tumbled -4.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped -2.70%, and the Dow Jones declined -2.08%, pushing major indexes into negative territory for the year. Global equities also suffered sharp declines.

Amid this turmoil, Treasury yields fell as investors sought safe-haven assets, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June. The 2-year yield dropped -11.6 bps to 3.883%, while the 10-year yield slipped -8.5 bps to 4.218%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed slightly to 103.926, recovering from its session low of 103.559, the weakest level since November.

Commodities Struggle Amid Market Volatility​

Despite Wall Street’s sell-off, gold remained flat at $2,888 per ounce, failing to gain traction as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices also dipped by -0.26% to $65.86 per barrel, reflecting broader economic concerns.
Oil tracked equity markets and risk assets amid concerns that tariffs and other measures could stunt growth in the world’s largest economy. Oil has fallen nearly 20% from its mid-January high as Trump’s tariff hikes and push to cut federal spending darken the economic outlook for the largest oil producer and consumer. Other bearish factors include OPEC+ plans to increase supply and weakening demand in China, where refiners are being urged to shift away from producing key fuels like diesel and gasoline.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright provided some bullish sentiment, stating that the Trump administration is prepared to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil production. He made the remarks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday.
Executives from major oil producers—including Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, and Saudi Aramco—expressed strong support for Trump’s energy dominance agenda at the gathering. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy projected oil prices to range between $60 and $80 per barrel over the next few years.

Key US Economic Data Releases This Week​

Investors are bracing for significant economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains focused on inflation, Tuesday’s JOLTS report could drive market reactions amid heightened recession concerns.
In December, job openings declined -556K to 7.6 million, near the lowest level since January 2021. The opening rate has also fallen to 4.5%, down from 5.3% a year ago. Meanwhile, the quit rate—a key measure of labour market confidence—held at 2.0%, compared to 3.0% at its peak.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift​

Fed funds futures indicate expectations for three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, as economic slowdown concerns overshadow inflation fears. The futures market now anticipates the first rate cut in June, with the implied rate reflecting -30 bps in cuts. September pricing suggests -59 bps, while December signals -78 bps in total easing. However, the Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of its March 18-19 meeting.

Tech Stocks Hit Hard as Nasdaq 100 Falls 3.8%​

The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst single-day decline since October 2022, falling -3.8%. At intraday lows, the index was down -4.7%, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value.
Key factors driving the sell-off include tariff-related uncertainty, declining confidence in AI spending, and disappointing inflation and labour data. The so-called "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which led the recent bull market, experienced steep losses.
Among the biggest losers were:

• Tesla (-15.4%) – its worst day since September 2020 amid falling sales and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the company.
• MicroStrategy (-16.7%)
• AppLovin (-12%)
• Palantir (-10.1%)
• Atlassian (-9.6%)

Broader Market Impact: Treasury Yields Drop as Safe-Haven Demand Rises​

As recession fears mount, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level this year. This decline reflects investors' growing preference for safer assets.
On the risk-asset front, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $77,000, marking its lowest level since November, as investors moved away from speculative assets amid economic uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been hit hard. Among the biggest losers were two leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin-holding firm MicroStrategy, both of which dropped over 30% in a single day. Additionally, an ETF doubling the daily returns of Robinhood Markets Inc.—a favoured brokerage among crypto traders—plummeted 40%. Leveraged Bitcoin funds fell approximately 20%, while those focused on Ethereum declined 26% amid the broader digital asset selloff.
The downturn highlights growing uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly as speculation surrounding regulatory policies and economic conditions intensifies. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies initially surged post-election, driven by optimism over potential policy shifts.

With key economic reports and the Fed meeting approaching, markets remain on edge. Recession fears, tech sell-offs, and shifting rate-cut expectations continue to drive volatility. Investors will closely watch upcoming data releases to gauge economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve actions in the coming months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 12th March 2025.

Eyes on Inflation: Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Tensions Shake Wall Street.

It was another volatile session as markets assessed fresh news on tariffs and Ukraine, all while positioning for upcoming economic reports like the JOLTS data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street closed lower but off its lows, with the Dow slipping by -1.14%, finishing at 41,433, after dropping to a session low of 41,175. This decline followed reports that President Trump would increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium by another 25%, bringing the total levy to 50%. This move was seen as retaliation for Ontario’s 25% tariff on US electricity imports.
This news lifted some of the market's anxiety, though fears of the ongoing trade war and its broader economic implications remains. The tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports could potentially revive US factory jobs. This decision adds to the growing uncertainty surrounding the stock market, which is grappling with concerns about an economic slowdown.
The S&P 500 closed with a -0.76% loss, settling at 5572, just shy of correction territory, while the NASDAQ fell by -0.18% to 17,436 after fluctuating in and out of positive territory.
Treasury Yields and the Stock Market: Diverging Signals
Despite the declines in stocks, treasury yields saw a rise, with the 2-year up 6.2 basis points at 3.945%, the 3-year increasing by 6 basis points at 3.950%, and the 10-year rising 6.5 basis points to 4.283%. The 30-year saw a 5.5 basis point drop, closing at 4.600%. There was stronger selling, even with a solid 3-year auction, and some haven demand began to fade as dip buyers emerged in the stock market. The dollar closed slightly off its lows at 103.375, while oil ended the day up 0.8% at $66.50 per barrel. Gold also saw an increase of 0.96%, reaching $2916.49 per ounce.

European Stocks Poised for Stronger Open​

European stocks were expected to open stronger after Trump sought to reassure investors about the outlook for the US economy. Furthermore, Ukraine agreed to a proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia, giving markets some hope for geopolitical stability. Despite these developments, markets remain nervous about the future, with concerns over sticky inflation, Trump’s tariff policy, and the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts all weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
The VIX, a gauge of stock market volatility, remains elevated near its highest level since August. Similarly, measures of volatility in the US Treasury market are at their highest levels since November. With economic growth in the U.S. uncertain, market participants are feeling the pressure.

Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The EU Responds​

In response to the new US tariffs on steel and aluminium, the European Union announced it would impose duties on American goods worth €26 billion ($28.3 billion). The European Commission’s swift action underscores the growing global trade tensions and the potential for further escalation.
Trump's Economic Strategy: A Mixed Picture
President Trump sought to calm recession fears, declaring, “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom.” He added that market fluctuations are natural, stating, “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. But you know what, we have to rebuild our country.” While the president's optimism contrasts with market fears, analysts remain cautious, particularly given the increasing uncertainty about US economic growth and the potential consequences of the ongoing trade wars.
In a meeting with top executives, Trump stressed the importance of speeding up the approval process for environmental regulations and hinted at plans to announce a major electricity project soon. He also suggested that companies manufacturing in the US could benefit from reduced business taxes.
Markets Look to Inflation Data
Investors are also closely watching the US consumer inflation reading, set to be released later in the day. The CPI is expected to advance by 0.3% in February, following a 0.5% increase at the start of the year. Analysts are concerned that if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may lack the flexibility to cut interest rates, especially if Trump's economic policies lead to a sharp slowdown in growth.
Commodities: Oil and Gold on the Rise
In commodities, oil extended its gains after the US revised its global oversupply forecast. Gold continued its upward momentum, supported by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty.

Final Thoughts: Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Market Volatility​

As we move forward into 2025, one key question remains: Do tariffs matter more than the Fed's policies for US stock markets?
The answer may depend on how markets react to future trade developments, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s actions. As the market navigates this volatile environment, investors will need to stay vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the ever-evolving landscape of tariffs, inflation, and economic growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 13th March 2025.

Wall Street Rebounds on Cooler CPI, But Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets.

Wall Street found some relief as cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data provided a temporary boost for stocks. However, Treasury yields continued to rise, with investors remaining cautious amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.

Stock Market Reaction to CPI Data
The US stock market recovered after enduring sharp losses throughout the month. The tech-heavy NASDAQ led the rebound with a 1.22% gain, although it remains down 6.35% for March. The S&P 500 climbed 0.49%, yet it is still off by 5.97% for the month, finishing just below the 5600 mark at 5599. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.2% lower, reflecting investor apprehension over economic policy shifts.
Despite the positive CPI data, Treasury bonds failed to benefit. The 2-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 3.982%, while the freshly auctioned 10-year yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.318%. Investors refrained from aggressively chasing bonds as inflation trends had already softened before the latest tariff measures took effect.

Global Market Response to Trade Policies
Markets in Asia struggled on Thursday, reversing early gains as concerns over U.S. trade policies overshadowed optimism from the U.S. inflation report. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.4%, while China’s blue-chip stocks dropped 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei initially gained 1.4% before retreating to flat territory.
Australia’s benchmark index slid 0.5%, confirming a technical correction as it fell 10% from its record high reached on February 14. European markets also faced pressure, with STOXX 50 futures slipping 0.5%. Meanwhile, US futures pointed to a weak Wall Street open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and NASDAQ futures off 0.8%.

Trade Tensions and Inflation Concerns
The US government’s latest tariff measures on steel and aluminium, which took effect on Wednesday, added to market uncertainty. Canada and Europe responded with swift retaliatory duties, further exacerbating trade tensions. Please note that the trade policy developments are clouding inflation forecasts, with potential further tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods posing additional risks.

Commodity Market Trends
Safe-haven assets gained traction amid market volatility. Gold prices surged 0.5% to $2,947.06 per ounce, nearing the all-time high of $2,956.15 from February 24. The Yen strengthened by 0.4% to 147.70 per Dollar, while the Euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0879.

Crude oil prices pulled back after a recent rally. Brent crude futures declined 0.3% to $70.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.4% to $67.44 per barrel.

Looking Ahead
The combination of trade policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, and shifting investor sentiment continues to shape global markets. While Wall Street saw a brief recovery, ongoing volatility suggests that market participants remain cautious as they navigate the evolving economic landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 14th March 2025.

Gold Surges Past Record High as Market Volatility Persists.

Gold Surges Past Record High as Market Volatility Persists
Gold surged towards $2,994 per ounce, surpassing its previous high set on Thursday. With a 2.6% rise this week, gold is on track for its most significant gain since November. Meanwhile, gold futures in New York comfortably exceeded the $3,000 mark, reflecting strong investor sentiment toward the precious metal.
The robust performance of gold this quarter extends its strong annual rally in 2024. Market uncertainty, exacerbated by the US administration’s aggressive trade policies, has dampened risk appetite for equities, pushing the S&P 500 into correction territory this week. Central bank purchases increased ETF inflows, and bullish forecasts from major banks have further fueled gold’s ascent.

Trade Tensions and Market Impact​

Former President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by proposing a 200% tariff on European alcoholic beverages, including wine and champagne. Additionally, he reaffirmed his stance on retaining tariffs on steel and aluminium and signalled that reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners could take effect as early as April 2. As we approach the second quarter, reciprocal tariffs could drive another wave of market turbulence, solidifying gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Gold and Equity Market Reactions​

The upward momentum in gold has also lifted mining stocks, with Australia’s Evolution Mining Ltd. reaching an all-time high. Global holdings in gold-backed ETFs increased to 2,687 tons, marking the highest level since November 2023.
Analysts at major banks remain bullish on gold’s trajectory. Macquarie Group recently forecasted a potential spike to $3,500 per ounce in Q2, while BNP Paribas revised its outlook to show gold prices consistently above $3,000. Gold traded at $2,983.50 per ounce in the Asia session, reflecting a 14% year-to-date gain. Meanwhile, silver edged lower after nearing $34 per ounce, while platinum and palladium recorded gains.

US Stock Market Recovery Amid Uncertainty​

After a sharp sell-off, US stock futures rebounded. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Despite the slight recovery, Wall Street remains on edge following the S&P 500’s descent into correction territory.
Trump’s firm stance on tariffs has added to market concerns. During a meeting with NATO’s secretary general, he dismissed any possibility of easing trade restrictions, acknowledging that further market disruptions may lie ahead.

Government Shutdown and Economic Indicators​

Adding to the economic uncertainty, a potential US government shutdown loomed over Wall Street. However, a breakthrough emerged late Thursday as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer signalled a willingness to advance a Republican-led stopgap spending bill.
Today the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is expected to shed light on how consumers are coping with inflation and trade disruptions. Last month’s report indicated weakening economic confidence, which could have further implications for spending trends.

Asian Markets Rally Amid China’s Economic Stimulus​

Asian stock markets saw a strong performance this morning, brushing off Wall Street’s losses. Chinese stocks surged after state-run banks and financial institutions were instructed to support consumer spending.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 2.5% to 24,038.85, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.9% to 3,420.65. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 added 0.9%, while Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.6%.
China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration issued directives aimed at boosting consumer finance, including encouraging credit card usage and providing support for struggling borrowers. Economists, however, argue that broader reforms—such as wage growth and enhanced social welfare—are necessary for sustained economic recovery.

Wall Street’s Struggles Amid AI Stock Declines​

Despite positive economic data, including lower-than-expected wholesale inflation and strong job market indicators, stock market turbulence continued. AI-related stocks, which have been at the forefront of market gains, faced renewed pressure. Palantir Technologies fell 4.8%, Super Micro Computer dropped 8%, and Nvidia fluctuated before closing 0.1% lower.
Tesla also struggled, declining 3% and extending its 2025 losses to over 40%. In contrast, Intel shares soared 14.6% after announcing Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO.

Oil Prices and Currency Movements​

In commodities, US crude oil prices rose by $0.46 to $67.01 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by $0.44 to $70.32 per barrel. The US dollar strengthened to 148.63 Yen, while the Euro dipped slightly to $1.0845.

Conclusion​

Market volatility remains high as investors navigate shifting trade policies, inflation concerns, and economic uncertainties. While gold continues to shine as a safe-haven asset, equity markets face persistent headwinds. As geopolitical and economic developments unfold, traders and investors must remain vigilant in the days ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.