HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 5th February 2026.

Big Day for Central Banks as Tech Stocks Slide and Precious Metals Turn Volatile.

Global financial markets are facing renewed pressure as a sharp pullback in technology stocks ripples across regions, while traditionally defensive assets such as gold and silver fail to provide stability. What started as a valuation-driven selloff in US tech has evolved into a broader reassessment of risk, affecting Asian equities, European markets, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.

At the centre of the turbulence lies growing scepticism around artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, rising capital expenditures, and the sustainability of recent market gains.

Tech Stocks Under Pressure as AI Valuation Concerns Grow​

Asian technology shares extended their losses, with MSCI’s Asia Tech Index falling for the fifth time in six sessions. Major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SoftBank Group declined, while South Korea’s Kospi Index, widely viewed as a proxy for AI-related investment, dropped more than 3%.

The weakness followed a volatile US session where disappointing earnings reactions from Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reignited concerns that AI expectations may be running ahead of near-term profitability. Even companies that reported stronger-than-expected earnings struggled to support their share prices, a sign that market sentiment toward high-growth tech stocks has shifted.

Semiconductor and Software Stocks Lead the Decline​

The selloff has been particularly intense among chipmakers and software companies, as investors question whether massive AI-related spending will translate into sustainable revenue growth. Fears are also emerging that AI innovation could disrupt existing software business models rather than enhance them.

The Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst two-day decline since October, breaking below its 100-day moving average, a technical level often associated with further downside risk. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from recent highs, placing it firmly in bear-market territory.

Market Rotation Signals Caution, Not Capitulation​

Despite the speed of the selloff, market participants are increasingly viewing the move as a sector rotation rather than a systemic panic. With the US economy showing resilience, investors are reallocating capital toward defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and select industrial names.

This rotation has led to significant value destruction within the technology sector. In just two days, hundreds of billions of dollars were erased from the market capitalisation of companies across the AI ecosystem, particularly among US-listed software firms.

Gold and Silver Prices Plunge Amid Position Unwinding​

In a surprising development, precious metals, often seen as safe-haven assets, have come under intense selling pressure.

Silver Suffers Historic Selloff​

Silver prices collapsed by as much as 17%, marking one of the sharpest drops on record. After surging to multi-year highs on speculative inflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of lower US interest rates, the metal has retreated more than one-third from its recent peak.

Thin liquidity, leveraged positioning, and aggressive profit-taking amplified the move, creating a feedback loop that weighed heavily on broader market sentiment.

Gold Prices Follow Lower​

Gold prices also fell sharply, posting their largest decline since 2013 before stabilising. Although longer-term fundamentals remain intact, the abrupt pullback underscores how quickly crowded trades can unwind when sentiment shifts.

Base metals such as copper also weakened, pressured by rising inventories and slowing global growth expectations.

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Slide as Risk Appetite Fades​

Bitcoin extended its losses, briefly drifting toward the $70,000 level as global risk appetite deteriorated and the US dollar strengthened. Despite its reputation as an alternative asset, Bitcoin continues to trade in line with broader liquidity conditions, particularly during periods of heightened volatility.

Currency Markets Focus on Central Banks and Political Risk​

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar gained modestly, pushing the euro and British pound slightly lower ahead of interest-rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but traders remain sensitive to forward guidance.

Japanese Yen Nears Intervention Levels​

The Japanese yen has weakened for several consecutive sessions, approaching levels that previously triggered official intervention. Political developments are adding to the pressure, with markets anticipating that a strong election outcome for Japan’s ruling party could enable more expansionary fiscal policies, a combination that may further weigh on the currency.

Oil Prices Ease as Geopolitical Tensions Cool​

Crude oil prices declined after Iran confirmed it would engage in negotiations with the United States, easing immediate concerns about supply disruptions. At the same time, ongoing dialogue between US and Chinese leaders has kept trade relations and geopolitical risk firmly in focus.

Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist​

The dominant theme across global markets is reassessment. After months of momentum-driven gains, particularly in AI-related assets, investors are now scrutinising valuations, earnings sustainability, and balance-sheet strength more carefully.

While long-term structural trends such as artificial intelligence, digital transformation, and automation remain intact, recent price action serves as a reminder that even the strongest narratives are vulnerable to corrections.

As markets navigate earnings season, central bank policy signals, and political developments, volatility is likely to remain elevated, with diversification and risk management taking centre stage once again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 09th February 2026.

Japan Sees Record-Breaking Election Victory.

Japan’s political developments are evolving quickly and are having a direct impact on financial markets. The NIKKEI 225 rose to all-time highs and has already risen more than 16% in 2026 alone. In addition to this, the Japanese Yen also rises 0.80% after the market open.

Japan’s snap elections have come to a halt with the Liberal Democratic Party coming out as the winner. The Prime Minister's party won more than two-thirds of the lower house, giving her a stronger mandate to push through her policies.

Sanae Takaichi’s Historic Victory​

On Sunday, the LDP won 316 of 465 lower-house seats on its own, giving it more than a two-thirds supermajority. The LDP, with its coalition partner, will now control over 350 seats (75% of the house). That result is the largest single-party majority since the LDP’s founding in 1955 and the most seats ever won by any party in postwar Japanese elections.

Analysts were expecting Mrs Takaichi’s party to easily win the elections due to high approval ratings. The Prime Minister's high approval ratings were the main reason behind the snap elections. The victory indicates the public’s support for more growth-oriented economic policies.

Why is the NIKKEI 225 The Best Performing Index?​

The NIKKEI 225 is 2026’s best-performing index, rising 16% this year so far. The NIKKEI 255 in the past 12-months has risen 46%, 33% higher than the second-best-performing index. The figures can easily indicate the strength of the index and its trend.

Investors are increasing their exposure to the NIKKEI 225 as inflation returns to Japan for the first time in decades. The lack of inflation was one of the key reasons for investors limiting their exposure to the Japanese markets.

However, the latest and strongest price driver is the elections and the Prime Minister's victory. Japan’s Prime Minister is a clear supporter of an expansionary policy and strong ties with the US. She campaigned on and is expected to pursue policies that emphasise government spending to stimulate economic growth, including fiscal measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and strengthening long-term growth prospects.

NIKKEI 225 - Technical Analysis​

HFM - NIKKEI 225 1-Hour Chart

The price of the NIKKEI 225 opened on a bullish price gap measuring 1.98% and then rose a further 1.75%. However, the price soon after came under pressure and fell back to Friday’s closing price. Considering the strong overbought indications from the RSI and MACD, the selloff was not a surprise.

Nonetheless, the buy signal remains relatively strong despite the retracement forming. This is also partially due to the strong bullish price movement from Friday. The NIKKEI 225 rose more than 5% on Friday alone.

On the 1-hour chart, price action continues to show bullish indications, with the price holding above previous highs. The recent decline appears consistent with earlier temporary pullbacks rather than a trend reversal. The price also remains firmly above key Moving Averages and on the positive side of the RSI and MACD.

However, the price movements on smaller timeframes seem less positive as the price retraces. If the price returns above 56,499.3 and thereby crosses the 200-bar SMA, the buy signals potentially may return.

The Japanese Yen​

The best performing currency of the day is the Japanese Yen due to the results of the elections. The worst-performing currencies are the US Dollar and the British Pound. The Japanese Yen is increasing in value as sentiment towards the currency partially improves. Though another key reason for this is investors' expectations of more inflation due to any upcoming expansionary policy amendments.

Investors are hoping that the policy and higher inflation will prompt the Bank of Japan to continue increasing interest rates throughout the year. However, regardless of the JPY’s bullish reaction to the elections, technical analysis indicates a bumpy ride as the price struggles to maintain momentum.

HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• Historic LDP win gives PM Takaichi a strong mandate for growth-focused policies.
• NIKKEI 225 hits all-time highs, up 16% in 2026 on political and inflation tailwinds.
• Technical signals remain bullish, with recent pullbacks seen as temporary retracements.
• Japanese yen strengthens on improved sentiment and expectations of higher inflation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 10th February 2026.

S&P 500 Rebounds as AI Stocks Lead Gains Ahead of Key US Economic Data.

The US stock market witnesses a second consecutive day of significant gains as market sentiment improves. The S&P 500 earlier in the month fell by more than 4%, but has been regaining bullish momentum. The index has now formed a 90% correction.

The upward price movement is largely due to sentiment towards technology companies and AI improvements. AI-related companies are mainly driving the bullish momentum. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Broadcom are the main drivers of the trend. Today, the US will release its latest Retail Sales figure, which will trigger some volatility for the stock market. However, the price in the medium-term will largely depend on the upcoming NFP data and US Inflation.

US Jobs and Inflation Data​

The S&P 500 bullish trend is strongly connected to the upcoming US data, as it is likely to indicate how the Federal Reserve will set its path for interest rates. Buyers will ideally be looking for the inflation rate to decline and for employment to remain somewhat stable. Stronger employment data would allow more leeway for the Federal Reserve to make no adjustments to interest rates.

Analysts are expecting the Non-Farm Employment Change to add 66,000, similar to the previous months. The US Unemployment Rateis also likely to remain at 4.4%. Analysts project the Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%, the lowest in 8-months.

Currently, there is only a 17% chance of an interest rate cut in March according to the Fedwatch Tool. However, the decline in inflation can prompt this statistic to move in favour of the stock market. If indeed the statistics do read as per expectations, the S&P 500 may see further bullish momentum.

Another key release will also come from company earnings. Cisco and McDonald’s are due to announce their quarterly earnings report tomorrow. In 2026, Cisco stocks have risen 14% while McDonald's has risen 7%. The two companies make up almost 1% of the total S&P 500.

Risks To The Stock Market​

Goldman Sachs’ closely watched “Panic Index” has surged to near so-called “max fear” levels, underscoring a sharp rise in investor anxiety across US equity markets. The spike reflects growing concern that the recent bout of volatility may not be over, and that a deeper sell-off could be triggered if key technical thresholds give way.

According to Goldman’s analysis, positioning and sentiment indicators suggest that as much as $33 billion in equity selling could be unleashed if the S&P 500 breaks below critical support levels that many systematic and momentum-based strategies rely on.

However, other indicators related to risk do not support this outlook. The VIX Index, another fear index, is trading slightly higher this morning; however, its weekly performance indicates a positive stock market. For 2026, the VIX Index has traded higher, which is concerning, but if the index continues to fall like the past week, the fear factor will decline.

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis​

HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

The price action and waves within the S&P 500 are following the traditional bullish trend pattern. Price swings continue to form higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes, such as the 15-Minute chart.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA, which indicates a bullish sentiment. The price also remains on the positive side of the MACD, but not above the signal line. However, if the price rises above $6,971, the bars within the MACD are likely to cross above the signal line. As a result, bullish signals are likely to strengthen.

If bearish momentum gains and the price falls below $6955, bullish sentiment and technical indicators will likely fade.

Key Takeaways:

• S&P 500 rebounds after a 4% pullback, regaining bullish momentum.
• AI and big tech lead gains, driven by NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
• Key US data ahead (Retail Sales, NFP, Inflation) will steer market direction.
• Rate-cut odds remain low, but falling inflation could boost equities.
• Risk signals are mixed, with panic indicators elevated but technicals still bullish.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 11th February 2026.

Gold Breaks from Its Traditional Dollar Correlation?

The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman nominee and heavy profit-taking have driven Gold down by 21%. Though the asset has recently regained 58% of its lost value. Gold’s outlook will now heavily depend on today’s employment data and Friday’s inflation rate.

The price movement of Gold has been somewhat static, forming range-bound conditions but with a slight bullish bias. However, when also analysing the price of the US Dollar, the correlation does not follow its traditional path. The USD has come under immense pressure over the past week, but Gold’s upward trend has been less volatile.

However, traders should note that correlations have weakened temporarily in the past but later showed a delayed response.

The US Dollar Index​

The US Dollar Index is trading lower on Wednesday and has also fallen in value over the previous three trading days. The currency has been performing relatively well towards the end of January and the first week of February. This is due to investors expecting a hawkish Federal Reserve and no imminent rate cut.

However, analysts expect inflation to decline to 2.5%, an 8-month low and fairly close to the Fed’s target. As a result, the Federal Reserve may consider a small adjustment within March, which is not currently priced into the market.

Yesterday, Stephen Miran, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, said that the Republican administration’s trade policy has had only a limited impact on the US economy. He explained that most of the costs from higher tariffs and taxes have been absorbed by foreign companies. He also added that the effect on US household spending has been small.

Analysts see his comments as a sign that inflation pressures are gradually easing. This could give the Federal Reserve room to adjust monetary policy if needed, while still maintaining financial stability.

Meanwhile, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said that job growth may slow in the coming months. He pointed to slower growth in the labour force, higher productivity, and fewer migrant workers entering the country as factors that could reduce overall employment growth.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day and of the past week.

XAUUSD - Economic Data and Dollar Weakness Supports Gold​

The weakening US Dollar is one of the main factors that could push gold prices higher. However, even though Gold prices remain somewhat stable and elevated, the price is not forming a bullish trend. Traditionally, due to the correlation between the USD and Gold, Gold would normally be at least 9%; however, the increase is barely maintaining a rise of 5%.

Data released the day before showed a sharp slowdown in retail sales, falling from 3.3% to 2.4% year-over-year and from 0.6% to 0.0% month-over-month, while investors had expected 0.4% growth. Excluding vehicle sales, the figure also dropped to 0.0% MoM, confirming that November’s increase was only a short-term holiday boost.

At the same time, consumers are raising concerns about rising prices and acting more cautiously amid a tense labour market. Still, the broader environment remains moderately supportive of industrial production, investment, and business spending, helping sustain the overall economic recovery after recent short-term shocks.

The main driver would be today's NFP Employment Change and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (inflation data). Traders speculating upward price movement would ideally be hoping for the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1% and for inflation to fall to 2.4%, not 2.5%.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tells the market to expect weaker employment data and “not to panic”.

Geopolitical Tensions To Return?​

Gold is also supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, where talks between Iran, Israel, and the United States have failed. The US continues to demand a full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs while keeping sanctions in place.

As a result, investors are increasing gold holdings, and central banks are boosting physical gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand hit a record 863 tons last year and remains strong. China’s central bank is also increasing gold reserves as it seeks to reduce reliance on the US Dollar.

XAUUSD - Technical Analysis​

HFM - XAUUSD 10-Minute Chart


Over the past 24 hours, gold has formed a range-bound price pattern and is showing slightly more bullish than bearish momentum. The price continues to remain above the Moving Averages and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. The MACD and other Oscillators also remain on the positive side despite the lack of bullish price movement.

Today, the price is trading upwards with higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $5,038.85, the short-term bullish signals will fade.

Key Takeaways:​

• Gold rebounded after a sharp drop, recovering 58% of its 21% decline, but lost momentum in the past 24-hours.
• The US Dollar is weakening, but Gold’s rise has been relatively modest despite the typical inverse correlation.
• Upcoming economic data is key, with today’s NFP and Friday’s inflation report likely to determine gold’s next major move.
• Geopolitical tensions and central bank demand support gold, with record global purchases and continued buying from China.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.