Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 11th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher overnight and the Nikkei is set for the highest close since December 1996. Stronger than expected machinery orders for August underpinned an overall improvement in growth optimism, after the upbeat IMF outlook yesterday. Hang Send and CSI 300 are also posting gains and the ASX 200 outperformed as oil prices climbed above USD 51 per barrel. U.K. stock futures are also up as Sterling retreats. In the Eurozone the fact that the showdown between Madrid and Barcelona has been avoided will help to underpin sentiment. European stocks are set to extend gains and the GER30 may finally break the 1300 mark, but Bunds are likely to underperform as risk appetite returns and intra-Eurozone safe haven flows are being priced out. The local calendar is relatively quiet, with only the final reading of Spanish inflation data for September. Investors will also look ahead to the FOMC minutes as well as plenty of central bank speakers at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.

Catalan’s President backs down – Bund futures jump – briefly. Puidgemont rather than unilaterally declaring independence, proposed to suspend the result of the referendum and called for weeks of dialogue. Spain’s central administration had braced itself for a direct conflict, so this is at least a partial victory as Puidgemont seemed to back down first in this game of chicken. Still, with Catalonia suspending the result, rather than fully ignoring it Rajoy will likely still see this as blackmail and it remains to be seen whether he will now take a softer stance or continue to demand a full capitulation from the independent region. EURUSD dipped to 1.1796 from 1.1810 as the Catalonian leader said the current relationship with Spain is unsustainable. From there, the euro jumped to intra day highs of 1.1825 as Puigdemont said he would suspend a declaration of independence in order to pursue dialogue with Madrid.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Minutes – FOMC minutes to the September 19-20 policy meeting will provide some further details to the Fed’s recent thinking, but shouldn’t lead to any major revelations.After the policy statement, the economic projections, and Yellen’s press conference last month, as well as recent Fedspeak and data, the markets have all they need to in order to fine tune the outlook including pricing in a December rate hike.

FOMC Williams Speech –

ECB’ Praet speech –

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly higher, following on from gains on Wall Street yesterday, but UK100 and U.S. futures are heading south. Mixed signals then for European markets. The FOMC minutes confirmed that the Fed is on track to hike rates again at the December meeting, the BoE remains headed for a rate hike and the ECB is pretty much set to reduce asset purchases from early next year even if officials remain split on the size of the reduction and whether there should already be a signal that this is the beginning of the end for QE. Brexit talks remain in focus ahead of the crucial EU summit where officials will decide whether sufficient progress has been made for trade talks to begin this year. Meanwhile Spain’s hard line stance on Catalonia and signs that the front in Barcelona is cracking has helped peripheral bond yields to drop sharply yesterday and it remains to be seen whether the gains in bonds can be held. With the data calendar relatively quiet again, politics and central bank speeches will remain in focus. The Eurozone has industrial production for August and there are inflation numbers out of France and Sweden.

FOMC minutes showed “many” saw another rate hike was warranted, while a smaller number (probably Kashkari, Evans, and Kaplan) thought action could wait. Several thought that further tightening should hinge on incoming data, though it was acknowledged that Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria would impact economic activity. There was active debate over inflation and wages. While many saw some of the softening in inflation as due to idiosyncratic factors, other factors could be at work too and there was concern that such influences could be more persistent. Also, “several expressed concern that the persistence of low rates of inflation might imply that the underlying trend was running below 2%.”

Main Macro Events Today

EU Industial Production – Expectations – 0.5% m/m from 0.1% seen in August.

US Jobless Claims & PPI – Expectations – September PPI is forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.2% in August, while rising 0.2% core and 2.1% core y/y. Also due then is recently choppy initial jobless claims, seen dropping another 22k to 238k as storm anomalies wash out of the data.

ECB speeches – ECB President Draghi and ECB’s Praet speak in Washington and New York respectively.

FOMC Speeches – Governor Powell addresses “Prospects for Emerging Market Economies in a Normalizing Global Economy” from 10:30 ET and Governor Brainard takes part in a monetary policy panel at the Peterson Institute from 10:30 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Topix and Nikkei rallied and are targeting fresh highs, boosted by technology companies and retailers as markets start to focus on earnings. Elsewhere gains were more mooted and Hang Seng and CSI 300 swung between gains and losses. U.S. stock futures are higher, UK100 futures slightly down, but for the Eurozone a Bloomberg report that the ECB is considering halving asset purchases next year, but with a longer than anticipated 9 months extension could help the GER30 to finally crack the 13000 mark and keep Bunds underpinned. Brexit risks meanwhile are weighing on U.K. markets as hopes of early trade talks were dashed by Barnier yesterday, although there is still the hope of a transition period, which would at least give more time for talks.

FX Updates: EURUSD opened in N.Y. at 1.1860 highs, and spent much of the remainder of the session slowly grinding lower, basing at 1.1827 after the London close. The pairing traded under both its 50- and 20day moving averages, before reclaiming the levels into the close. Dovish fallout from Wednesday’s FOMC minutes continued to provide some support, though Friday’s U.S. CPI report may end up being a weight on the euro should data come in warm, as expected. Talk of a no-deal exit from the EU has been increasing, with five rounds of negotiation having reached “deadlock,” according to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Barniar. He also said that the EU would agree to a two-year transitory period, to buy more time after actual Brexit occurs in March 2019. Cable surged to $1.3290 after EU’s Barnier’s comments.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – Expectations – At 1.7% in September vs -0.2% in August, or 0.3% ex-auto.

US CPI – Expectations – CPI is forecast to surge 0.6% in September from 0.4% due to the surge in petroleum price.

ECB – ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is due to speak at 12:30 GMT.

FOMC Speeches – Boston Fed dove Rosengren opens a policy conference by his branch at 12:30 GMT. Evans is back on the economy and policy from 14:25 GMT, Kaplan takes Q&A at a CFA conference from 15:30 GMTand Powell is invited to speak at the Boston Fed conference from 17 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th October 2017.

FX News Today

Global economic activity has surprised to the upside this year, most recently manifest in the upward revisions from the IMF. And while there are a number of potential geopolitical headwinds that could slow, if not derail the momentum, recent economic reports from the U.S. suggest a measurable boost from Keynesian style pump-priming as the South and California recover from the hurricanes and fires that devastated the major regions. Meanwhile, the lack of inflationary pressures continues to baffle central bankers, keeping them on patient footing with respect to removing accommodation. Brexit is a major issue for the UK, while Europe is wrestling with the Spain-Catalonia constitutional crisis. The weekend’s Austrian elections may have some ripple effects and give populists and anti-EU forces fresh impetus. On Wednesday, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party convenes. President Xi is widely expected to be re-elected and is expected to lay out another broad plan for growth. President Trump’s decision to decertify the Iran nuclear deal will add to global concerns, along with the ongoing threats from North Korea.

United States: The Empire State index for October leads off (Monday), expected to decline to 21.0 after the 0.8 point slide to 24.4 in September. September industrial production (Tuesday) is forecast bouncing 0.4% after dropping 0.9% previously. Trade prices for September (Tuesday) should show a 0.8% climb in import prices, helped by energy, and a 0.5% gain in export prices. Housing starts for September (Wednesday) are expected to rise to a 1.200 mln pace following the 0.8% decline to 1.180 mln in August and the 2.2% drop in July to 1.190 mln. The October Philly Fed index (Thursday) is also expected to decline and September existing home sales (Friday) should inch up.

Canada: In Canada, the Business Outlook Survey (Monday) headlines the data docket, with a solidly expansionary outlook, further unwinding of spare capacity and still well contained inflation expectations expected. August manufacturing (Wednesday) is expected to improve 0.5% after the 2.6% tumble in July. August retail sales (Friday) are seen rising 0.5% after the 0.4% improvement in July. CPI (Friday) is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.1% gain in August. All of the reports this week have the potential to alter the policy outlook, but at this point we view the outcome for October’s announcement as fairly well settled. BoC’s Wilkins appears in a panel discussion (Tuesday), with the appearance having minimal risk of containing anything policy relevant.

Europe: Politics will continue to top the agenda. EU leaders will meet Thursday/Friday to talk Brexit. Meanwhile Spain’s constitutional crisis is not over yet. Puigdemont seemed to back down last week, but Rajoy’s ultimatum for a clarification on whether the Catalan leader actually unilaterally declared independence or not at his address to regional lawmakers runs out on October 16 and Madrid also demanded that Catalonia’s leader should respect Spain’s constitution and effectively end the move for independence by October 19.With that in mind the outcome of Austria’s election on October 15 could also have ripple effects and give populists and anti-EU forces fresh impetus. Latest opinion polls suggest that the conservative OeVP will be the strongest party, but the right wing FPOe is a close second. Clearly a good result for the FPOe would be cheered by the Front National in France and the AfP in Germany. In Germany itself the regional elections in Lower Saxony over the weekend will also be watched closely and the result of Merkel’s CDU could well impact support for the Chancellor within her own party as crucial coalition talks are about to start in earnest.

Against that background the data calendar looks pretty tame and is unlikely to decisively impact the discussion on policy recalibration that is taking place at the ECB ahead of the next meeting at the end of the month. The final reading of Eurozone September HICP is unlikely to bring a major surprise and is expected to confirm the preliminary number of 1.5% y/y. Still too low for the central bank, especially as Draghi is not happy yet with underlying inflation and especially wage growth.

UK:The pound, after posting its biggest weekly loss since August 2016 in the week prior, last week managed to rebound by over 1.5% versus the dollar and by about 1% versus both the euro and yen. The calendar this week is highlighted by inflation data for September (Tuesday) which expected at new cycle high of 3.0% y/y in headline CPI, and a core CPI reading of 2.8% y/y, after 2.7% in the month previous. Such outcomes would be comfortably in the range of BoE projections, and leave the central bank on course of what is now a widely expected 25 bp rate hike at the November policy meeting. Assuming sterling continues to hold up reasonably well, y/y CPI readings should come off the boil in upcoming months as the impact of the currency’s sharp decline following the Brexit vote in July 2019 falls out of the equation. Monthly labor data (Wednesday) should see the unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.3%, and show average household earnings continue to lag inflation, with incomes expected to rise by 2.1% y/y in the three months to August. September retail sales (Thursday) is expected to show a 0.1% m/m contraction.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has Q3 CPI, expected to expand 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the flat reading in Q2. CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.8% y/y pace from the 1.7% growth rate in Q2. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on November 9. They held rates steady at 1.75% in September, matching expectations. The statement by Acting Governor Spencer was consistent with no change in rates for an extended period.

Japan: Monday brings revised August industrial production, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1% y/y. Skipping to Thursday, the September trade report should reveal a surplus of JPY 400.0 bln, versus the 112.6 bln deficit in August. The September all-industry index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.1% versus the 0.1% decline previously.

China: September industrial production(Thursday) is estimated at 6.3% y/y from 6.0%, while September retail sales are penciled in at an unchanged 10.1% y/y. Q3 GDP (Friday) is expected at 6.9% y/y, unchanged from Q2.

Australia: The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s October meeting are due Tuesday. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis participates in a panel discussion (Tuesday). RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks to the Australian Shareholders Association (Thursday). Employment (Thursday) is seen rising 20.0k in September after the 54.2k gain in August. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.6%, matching the rate in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, with Australia’s ASX outperforming as investors piled into miners and banks. So Australia’s hot streak continued with a more than 0.7% rise, while gains elsewhere were more muted as concerns about North Korea emerged and markets speculate about a more hawkish Fed post Yellen. North Korea warned that a nuclear war could “break out any moment”. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are narrowly mixed. May’s visit to Brussels yesterday doesn’t seem to have brought a major breakthrough while in Spain the situation is tensing up after Madrid prepares to replace Catalan security officials after the leaders of two grassroots independence groups were jailed yesterday. Amid ongoing political tensions the European calendar is heating up, with U.K. inflation data for September as well as German ZEW investor confidence and final Eurozone September HICP numbers.

FX Updates: The dollar has continued to trade perkily. USDJPY flipped back above 112.00 as major Asian stock indices hit 10-year highs after Wall Street hit fresh record highs on Monday. The pair has a well-established tendency to correlate with notable moves in global equity markets, though persisting concerns about political disharmony in Spain and North Korea (Pyongyang threatened nuclear war could “break out at any moment”) may have been curtailing yen losses. EURUSD declined for a fourth consecutive session, this time logging a out a one-week low at 1.1756. The dollar also held firm against the Australian dollar and other dollar-bloc currencies, along with sterling and other currencies. Sterling for its part has seen little reaction thus far to news that British PM May and EU Commission President Juncker agreed at a supper meeting last night that Brexit negotiations should “accelerate over the months to come.”

Main Macro Events Today

UK PPI & CPI – Expectations – CPI at 3.0% y/y headline from 2.9% in August, and PPI at 1.2% in September from 1.6% m/m

EU CPI and German ZEW – Expectations -EU CPI seen unchanged at 1.5% y/y and German ZEW to 20.0 from 17.0

BoE Gov. Carney – Due to testify before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.

US Industrial Production – Expectation – at 0.4% after dropping 0.9%, which should leave capacity utilization at 76.4% from 76.1%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded cautiously as China’s Xi laid out his road map to 2015. Drug makers in Hong Kong and China outperformed, after the President vowed to develop the health industry. The Hang Seng is nevertheless slightly in the red and the Nikkei fluctuated amid concerns that indices are looking overbought. U.K. and U.S. futures are moving higher, after European markets closed mostly with slight losses yesterday and the GER30 failed to hold the 13000 mark. The Spanish IBEX outperformed despite the escalation of the Catalonia crisis, as Madrid prepares to take over control and Puigdemont faces a final ultimatum that runs out tomorrow. In the U.K. Brexit remains high on the agenda after the OECD warned of its negative impact on the economy and ahead of this week’s EU summit on the state of the talks. Data releases today focus on U.K. labour market data and especially wage growth, which will be watched closely by the BoE.

U.S. reports revealed a Q3 underperformance for industrial production despite a 0.3% September bounce thanks to downward back-revisions, though a solid 3%-4% growth rate was expected for this index through Q4 and Q1. The September trade price figures beat estimates thanks to a 1.0% surge in export prices ex-agriculture and a 4.5% petroleum import price rise, leaving headline gains of 0.8% for exports and 0.7% for imports, and rebounding global growth will lift both trade prices and the factory sector going forward. We also saw an NAHB index bounce to 68 in October from 64.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB – ECB President Draghi is due to deliver opening speech at the ECB conference in Frankfurt.

UK Labor data – Expectations -Unemployment rate remain unchanged at 4.3% and Household Earnings to rise by 2.1% y/y in the three months to August.

US Housing Permits – Expectations – Rise to a 1.200 mln pace following the 0.8% decline in August.

FOMC Speeches – NY Fed dove Dudley and Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed. Wall Street closed at record highs but a slight slow down in Chinese GDP growth to 6.8% from 6.9% was enough to knock back Hang Seng and CSI 300. By contrast strong trade data out of Japan helped to underpin the Nikkei. Bank of Korea meanwhile kept policy on hold, but for the first time in a year, there was no dissenter in favour of a rate hike. Oil prices little changed around the USD 52 per barrel mark and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south, with markets correcting slightly after yesterday’s fresh run higher. The GER30 closed at record highs, the UK100 is no far off and with Bund futures lifting off lows in after hour trade yesterday, it may be time for markets to take a breather and some defensive trade today, as the EU’s Brexit summit and Spain’s deadline to Catalonia approach. Data releases today include U.K. retail sales as well as Swiss trade data.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales- Expectations – a 0.1% m/m contraction.

US Unemployment – Expectations -At 240K from 243K last week.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – to decline to 22.0 after the better than expected 4.9 point jump to 23.8 previously.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The dollar has rallied across the board, up 0.3% versus the euro and by 0.6% against the yen, following news that the U.S. Senate had passed a budget blueprint that will help push forward the Republican party’s planned $1.5 tln tax cut. The news came after the close of Wall Street, and sparked a rally in U.S. equity index futures while lifting bourses across the Asia-Pacific region. USDJPY rallied to a two-week high of 113.30, gaining over 60 pips from the pre-news levels. EURUSD tumbled to a 1.1804 low from levels just above 1.1850. The relative underperformance of the yen, which is typical during bursts of risk-on sentiment in global markets, saw EURJPY and other yen crosses climb, as the dollar post gains versus the euro and most other currencies. Market participants will monitor the budget’s passage in the House. The budget, if passed, will open the door to expanding the federal deficit by $1.5 tln over 10 years, which will pay for the tax cut. This won’t be pleasing to fiscal conservatives in the House. Rand Paul was the only Republican to vote against in the Senate vote, and while there may be more opposition from House Republicans, the desire for a political has fostered a change in priorities.

U.S. reports: revealed an October Philly Fed surge to a 5-month high of 27.9, and a 22k initial claims plunge to a 44-year low of 222k in the Columbus Day and BLS survey week, with little evidence of distortion from Nate and the California fires. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed rose to a 6-month high of 59.7 in October from 59.0, and the employment index surged to an all-time high of 30.6 from 6.6. Monday’s Empire State rose to an 8-year high of 30.2 that was also seen in September of 2014. Rebuild activity should support continued sky-high producer sentiment levels into early-2018, and we face substantial upside risk for all the employment, GDP, and factory-sensitive measures into early-2018.
Main Macro Events Today

UK Public Borrowing – Expectations – at 5.7B from 5.1B last month.

Canadian CPI and Retail Sales – Expectations -0.2% increase in September’s CPI and 0.1% increase in September’s Retail Sales.

US Existing Home Sales – Expectations – Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) to increase by 0.7% up to -1.0% from -1.7% last month.

FOMC – Fed’s Mester due to speak at 18:00 GMT and Fed’s Yellen at 23:30 GMT

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd October 2017.

USDJPY, H1

The better than expected general election result for the PM Abe has helped Japanese stocks to close at record highs. The key Nikkei 225 closed up 1.11% at 21,696, and the futures contract trades comfortably in excess of 21,700. The expectations are for continued stimulation from the BOJ. Conversely the JPY slide on the news with USDJPY gaping and breaking to new highs at 114.10, before filling the gap back to 113.60 to suggest further advance in the coming sessions today. Even the under pressure EURJPY broke over 134.00 before declining under the key 133.80 support. Bond yields also came under pressure following the election result with EGB yields decline, helped by Abe’s victory in Japan, which has underpinned the hopped for longer global central bank stimulus as the ECB prepares to announce its QE extension on Thursday. The 10-year Bund yield is currently down -2.0 bp at 0.43%, as the price rallies to 161.65.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher overnight, as Japan’s equities continued to rally following Abe’s election win and on hopes of ongoing monetary stimulus. the CSI 300 and the ASX also shrugged off losses in the U.S. and moved higher, although the Hang Seng is marginally in the red and the ASX up a mere 0.06%. U.S. stock futures are up, FTSE 100 futures in the red and there is some caution settling in ahead of earnings reports, especially after the recent run higher in global markets. In Europe politics remain high on the agenda, as Catalonia’s government ponders the response to Madrid’s plans to take over direct control, while Brexit uncertainty lingers, although on the continent at least have long started to prepare for alternative suppliers and cut back business ties with the U.K.. Today’s calendar has French business confidence, as well as preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone as well as the ECB’s bank lending survey.

FX Update: The dollar majors have posted relatively narrow ranges so far today. EUR-USD has settled around 1.1750 after logging a two-week low at 1.1724 late yesterday. Market participant will remain vigilant on developments in Spain, with Catalonian leaders threatening to unleash mass civil disobedience over the independence issue. A plenary meeting on Thursday’s in Catalan’s regional parliament has become a focal point, and there is some speculation that it may be used a cover for a vote on whether to unilaterally declare independence. We expect the euro to be a sell-on-rallies trade in the meantime. Elsewhere, USD-JPY recouped and settled to the mid 113s after logging a low late yesterday at 113.24. The low completed a correction from the three-month high seen yesterday at 114.10, which was seen as markets reacted to the resounding victory of Abe at weekend elections.

Main Macro Events Today

German Services and Manufacturing PMI’s – Expectations – 55.6 and 60.2 respectively

Euro Area Services and Manufacturing PMI’s – Expectations 55.6 and 57.8 respectively

US Services and Manufacturing PMI’s – Expectations 55.6 and 53.5 respectively

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher, Japan underperform as the Nikkei pulled back from record highs and fluctuated with the Yen. It is currently down -0.43% as the Yen strengthened across the board. The Hang Seng recovered from yesterday’s correction, CSI 300 and ASX 200 are also higher, while U.S. and U.K. stock futures are in the red. Investors are turning cautious again and contemplate the recent run higher in global equities. The DAX managed to close above the 13000 mark again yesterday, but yesterday’s inflation warnings from Markit have increased speculation of a higher ECB taper than currently expected and lifted yields sharply and bond markets are likely to remain defensive ahead of tomorrow’s announcement. The focus today will be on the Ifo reading, which is expected to show broadly stable sentiment. The U.K. released the advance reading for Q3 GDP and we are looking for a steady quarterly growth rate of 0.3% q/q, in line with consensus.

Australia CPI slowed to a 1.8% y/y growth rate in Q3 from the 1.9% rate of increase in Q2. The slowing undershot expectations for a steady or faster annual growth rate (we projected 1.9%). CPI grew 0.6% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% rise in Q2. The “core” measures also came in on the soft side. The trimmed mean CPI grew 1.8% y/y, matching the 1.8% pace in Q2. The trimmed mean slowed to a 0.4% clip in Q3 (q/q, sa) from 0.5% in Q2. The growth rate for the weighted median CPI was 1.9%, steady compared to the revised 1.9% pace in Q2 (was +1.8%). The weighted median CPI grew 0.3% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the revised 0.6% pace in Q2 (was 0.5%). Total and “core” CPI measures remain below the RBA’s 2-3% target band, consistent with no change in rates through the first half of next year. CB’s bank lending survey.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Q3 GDP – Expectations – 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY

US Durable Goods – Expectations – CORE 0.5% and Headline 1.0%

Bank of Canada – Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Press Conference – Expectations – No change to rates but Hawkish outlook

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th October 2017.

FX News Today

After both Markit PMIs as well the Ifo reported mounting capacity pressures, there is a good chance that the ECB will cut back asset purchases by more than the EUR 30 bln that Bloomberg consensus suggests. However, while this is likely to see a knee jerk reaction on forex and bond markets, we expect Draghi to package the taper in a dovish statement and forward guidance, in particular leaving the option for another program extension open to dampen the impact and prevent “overreactions” on forex markets. Draghi will also confirm the sequence of exit steps, with rates expected to remain low well past the end of asset purchases, which with a 9 months program extension would push out any rate hike into 2019. And even with EUR 20 bln per months for another 9 months, the ECB will still extend its balance sheet by a further EUR 180 bln, so monetary policy will not only remain expansionary, it will be even more expansionary than now, with Draghi only gently taking the foot off the accelerator. Indeed, the good news this week was that while Bund yields jumped higher Eurozone peripherals actually mostly outperformed. So at least on that front Draghi can be a bit more confident that “less for longer” will not be a cause of a fresh wave of instability.

The euro has been trading buoyantly into the ECB announcement today. EURUSD clocked a one-week high of 1.1837 earlier in the Asian session, and while EURJPY and EURCHF have remained below their respective 22- and 33-month highs of yesterday, they remain underpinned, with both crosses having picked up from shallow dips. EURUSD has akey support/restance level at 1.1830 which represents the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace level from the September 8th high at 1.2092.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th October 2017.

FX News Today

on the citizenship eligibility of lawmakers. FTSe 100 and U.S. stock futures are higher, but it remains to the seen whether the Eurozone can hold the Dfraghi induced gains from yesterday. And Spanish markets, which outperformed yesterday on reports that Puigdemont may be open to early elections, are likely to retreat again after the Catalan leader backtracked partly and ruled out early elections if Madrid doesn’t stop the process to take over control, thus setting the region on a confrontation course with Madrid, which is expected to get clearance from lawmakers today to directly take over control in the autonomous region. The data calendar is pretty empty today, with only German import prices at the start of the session, as well as French consumer confidence and the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters.

FX Action: USDJPY logged a fresh three-month high, at 114.26, making this the seventh up day out of the last nine sessions. EURJPY and most other yen crosses have also been underpinned over this period. The resounding mandate Abe won at Japan’s election of October 15 imparted a downward bias on the yen, as the prime minister’s favoured policy set includes a continued commitment to ultra-accommodative monetary policy, contrasting to the tightening path of the Fed and other central banks. USDJPY has support at 113.60, while the July peak at 114.49 provides an initial target. The year’s high, posted back in January, is at 118.61.

Main Macro Events Today

US Advanced GDP – Expectations – 2.6%

US UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – 100.8

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th October 2017.

FX News Today

The U.S. calendar is packed with key events and data, but none more important than President Trump’s announcement of his choice for Fed chair. That will have implications for years to come. An announcement will be forthcoming this week; Powell as chair, and Taylor for vice chair?

United States: The FOMC meets this week, the Fed is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting Tuesday, Wednesday. Although the back-to-back quarterly growth rates of 3.1% and 3.0% for Q2 and Q3 could argue for a tightening, inflation remains tame, and more importantly, there has been no Fedspeak to suggest a move is imminent. No press conference. September income and consumption (Monday) will help fine tune the quarter’s GDP outlook after the report of a 3.0% growth rate last Friday. October consumer confidence is forecast rising to 121. The Chicago PMI should fall to 62.0 in October after jumping 6.3 points to 65.2 in September. ADP headlines (Wednesday) along with the October ISM manufacturing numbers. We’re projecting a 200k jump in private payroll from the ADP, while the manufacturing index should dip to 58.5. October vehicle sales (Thursday) should are expected to decline amid ongoing hurricane disruptions. September construction spending also is likely to be distorted by the various hurricane effects. Nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are forecast surging 320k -400k in October, as the labor market gets back in gear following the hurricane disruptions that knocked employment down by 33k in September. The unemployment rate should hold at 4.2%. The ISM nonmanufacturing index (Friday) should dip to 58.5 in October (median 58.5), giving back some of the 4.5 point gain to 59.8 in September, which was the highest since August 2005.

The earnings slate remains very heavy, though not as bad as last week, which was the busiest for the Q3 season

Canada: August GDP (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m after the flat reading in July. The industrial product price index is seen expanding 0.5% in September after the 0.3% rise in August, as firmer gasoline prices more than offset the drag of a stronger loonie. Employment (Friday) is projected to grow 20.0k in October after the 10.0k gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.2%, matching September’s rate. Average weekly earnings are expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y pace, matching the growth rate in September. The trade deficit (Friday) is anticipated to narrow to -C$3.0 bln in September from -C$3.4 bln in August. Poloz and Wilkins due to speak Tuesday.

Europe: German HICP (Monday) is seen steady at 1.8%, French inflation reading (Tuesday) likely to nudge higher to 1.2%. The overall Eurozone HICP (Tuesday) should be unchanged at 1.5%. Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) expected to be confirmed at 58.6. Advanced readings for French GDP and overall Eurozone Q3 GDP (both Tuesday) to show quarterly growth rates that are in line with the first quarter at 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Spanish GDP meanwhile is expected to nudge lower slightly to 0.8%. The recovery clearly has reached the job market and PMIs also suggest ongoing job creation as companies struggle to fill still strong orders growth and expand production. The German labour market is already very tight and jobless numbers (Monday) are in our view likely to pick up slightly after a stronger than expected dip in September. Still, even the expected pick up of 4K, would leave the October jobless rate at a very low 5.6%. For the Eurozone unemployment rate (Tuesday) we are looking for a decline to 9.0% from 9.1%

UK: UK data reports over the last week have mostly disappointed. The calendar is highlighted by the BoE’s November Monetary Policy Committee (announcing Thursday), which will be accompanied by the publication of its quarterly Inflation Report. Following the BoE’s guidance, markets are fully expecting the central bank to make its first hike of the repo rate in 10 years, taking it to 0.50% from 0.35%.We expect the BoE to package the tightening in dovish guidance. Data releases this week include September data from the BoE on lending (Monday), which we expect to show mortgage approvals come in near unchanged at 66.0k, October Gfk consumer confidence (Tuesday), which we forecast dipping to -10 from -9 in the month prior, and the October PMI surveys. We expect the manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) to come in at 55.9 which would be the same reading as in September. We anticipate the servicers PMI (Friday) in at 53.3 after 53.6 in the month previous.

China: CFLP October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast sliding to 52.0 from 52.4. The Caixin/Markit PMI (Wednesday) likely eased to 50.5 from 51.0.

Japan: The BoJ headlines and on Tuesday, no policy changes are expected. The Bank will likely recommit to ultra-accommodative policy settings. As for data, September retail sales (Monday) are expected to dip to a 0.5%. September unemployment (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 2.7%, with the job offers/seekers ratio likely to tick up to 1.53. PCE (due Tuesday), should show consumption at a 0.5% y/y pace from 0.6%. September industrial production (Tuesday) is penciled in at -2.0% y/y, tumbling from August’s 2.0%. September housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to contract further to a -3.0% y/y rate from -2.0% previously, while construction orders are also slated (Tuesday). Also on the slate are October manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) and October consumer confidence (Thursday), expected at 43.5 from 43.9. Japan is closed Friday for Culture Day.

Australia: CPI (Wednesday) is the focus this week, with a 0.9% gain expected in Q3 after the tame 0.2% rise in Q2. The trade price report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 1.0% drop in Q3 import prices after the 0.1% dip in Q2. Export prices are seen falling 3.0% in Q3 following the 5.7% pull-back in Q2. The Q3 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle speaks (Thursday) on “Uncertainty.”

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved sideways overnight. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are little changed. Japanese markets pared losses as investors bought on dips, amid hopes of better earnings. The BoJ left policy on hold and while new board member Kataoka opted for additional easing, against a majority in favour of unchanged policy, the announcement had little impact on markets, with investors remaining hesitant to push indices higher ahead of a 3-day weekend in Japan and U.S. jobs data later in the week. The BoJ keeps the -0.1% rate with target remaining at 2% inflation and the 10-year JGB yield target at around 0%. In Europe most markets closed narrowly mixed on Monday, with only Spain rallying as Catalonia risks are being priced out. Today’s calendar has inflation data from Italy, France and for the Eurozone as a whole as well as GDP numbers from France and the Eurozone, the former was already released and came in at 0.5% q/q, as expected, but after last week’s ECB meeting the data won’t have any impact on the policy outlook.

FX Update: The euro rally of yesterday has run out of puff, with EURUSD settling around 1.1630-40, below the 1.1657 high, while EURJPY has remained heavy, near yesterday’s 131.45 low. The yen, meanwhile, remains underpinned despite dovish guidance from the BoJ. USDJPY logged a 12-day low at 112.95, and AUDJPY has remained near the seven-month lows seen yesterday. The BoJ did the expected, and left policy on hold at its meeting today. New board member Kataoka voted for additional easing, while Governor Kuroda espoused dovish guidance in his press conference, warning that “abnormal” yen appreciation would hurt the economy and accelerate deflation, and that the central bank will continue with “powerful” accommodative monetary policy. In the U.S., political intrigue along with the announcement, promised to be made tomorrow, of the new Fed chair, will remain focal points for markets.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone GDP and Core CPI – Expectations – at 0.5% q/q from 0.6% and at 1.2% from 1.3% respectively.

Canadian GDP- Expectations -0.1% increase in August.

BoC – Governor Poloz Speaks before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa.

New Zealand Labor Data – Expectations – 0.1% decline in Unemployment Rate for Q3.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Japan led a rally in Asian stocks, with technology shares boosting indices to near all-time highs in brisk trade as the Yen dropped and the manufacturing PMI inched higher. U.S. futures are also climbing higher amid ongoing optimism about tax reforms and U.K. futures are equally underpinned. The CSI 300 is in the red, but all in all an optimistic start to the month, as markets focus on today’s conclusion of its 2-day FOMC meeting with no change expected. The BoE will conclude its meeting tomorrow and markets are expecting a reversal of last year’s “emergency” rate cut following the Brexit vote. Today’s calendar is quiet, with many country’s and regions across Europe celebrating All Saints Day. The U.K. and Switzerland release manufacturing PMIs and the U.K. also has house price data from Nationwide.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading mixed so far today, losing ground to an outperforming pound, holding net steady versus the euro while gaining on the yen. The pound traded firmer for a third consecutive day, logging a near-two-week high versus the dollar, at 1.1.3292 and a one-month high against the euro. Sterling markets are anticipating the BoE to hike the repo rate for the first time in a decade at tomorrow’s conclusion of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. EURUSD, meanwhile, continued to gravitate around the 1.1630-40 area, and USDJPY logged a three-session high of 113.97 amid a backdrop of rallying stock markets across Asia and globally. EURJPY also hit a three-session peak, and other yen crosses also ground higher. Markets are expecting a tax reform announcement from the Trump administration, which is expected to happen on Thursday (a day later than previously advertised), and which is feeding a risk-on sentiment in markets. We expect the prevailing forex trends to hold good for now.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – nearly unchanged at 55.8 from 55.9 on September.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Expectations – a 200K jump in private payrolls from 135K last month.

US Manufacturing PMI – Expectations -a dip to 59.5

FOMC Statement – FOMC expected to announce no change to the 1.00% to 1.25% policy band today at 18:00 GMT . The policy statement is expected to reiterate the general outlook of moderate growth and subdued inflation, though there could be an upgrade on the economy given the swath of better than expected data, and the report of 3% growth in Q3.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets ex-Japan are mostly slightly down in the wake of the as-expected Fed announcement yesterday. Japan managed to outperform and the Nikkei is up 0.58%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south as attention turns to the BoE meeting today, which is expected to bring the first rate hike since 2007. Investors will are also awaiting the decision on the next Fed chair and U.S. job data at the end of the week. Against that data releases are likely to fade into the background. They include the final readings of Eurozone manufacturing PMIs as well as German jobless numbers and the U.K. construction PMI.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer following reports run by MarketWatch and Bloomberg saying that Fed Governor Powell will be nominated to the Fed Chairmanship position later on today. Powell is seen as one of the more dovish candidates for the top job at the Fed, similar to Yellen. Yesterday’s conclusion of the FOMC, meanwhile, predictably left policy unchanged, and while the Fed upgraded growth projections, core inflation was deemed to be remaining “soft.” The statement was consistent with an already discounted 25bp rate hike in December. This backdrop imparted a modest upside bias on EURUSD, which logged a one-week high at 1.1671 in Asian trade, while USDJPY declined under 114.00, leaving a three-day high at 114.28. The dollar also ebbed versus the Australian and other dollar bloc currencies, and most other units.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Inflation Report and Monetary Policy – Following the BoE’s guidance, markets are fully expecting the central bank to make its first hike of the repo rate in 10 years, taking it to 0.50% from 0.25%. This would undo the ’emergency’ rate cut of August 2016, which came amid the panicky, although short-lived, period following the vote to leave the EU. Today’s MPC announcement will be accompanied by the publication of its quarterly Inflation Report.

BoE Governor Carney- speaking at 12;30 GMT along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London.

US Jobless Claims – Expectations – 2K rise from 233K last week at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee Round-table.

Fedspeak – Governor Powell and Fed’s Dudley are due to speak today

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, as investors digest U.S. tax cut plans, Powell’s nomination as Fed chair ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report. Japan was closed for a holiday, Hang Seng and ASX moved higher, but the CSI 300 was under pressure and the Shanghai Composite Index is heading for a weekly decline of over 1% led by technology shsares and brokerages following the Communist Party Congress. UK100 futures as well as U.S. futures are moving higher though. U.K. markets remain underpinned by yesterday’s BoE report, which lifted rates, but didn’t put further moves on the agenda. This saw U.K. yields heading south yesterday and the UK100 bagging a 0.90% gain. Today’s local calendar is pretty empty, leaving markets to digest other news and look ahead to U.S. data in the afternoon.

BoE Delivers First Rate Hike in 10 Years: The BoE did the expected and hiked rates by 25 bp to 0.50%, thus effectively reversing the “emergency” post-Brexit vote cut from last year. There were 2 dissenters and after yesterday’s move the central bank no longer warns that markets may be underestimating future rate hikes.

President Trump officially nominated Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, replacing Janet Yellen. Powell is seen as a moderate and he has had experience in the government, the private sector, and at the Fed. He’s unlikely to make any abrupt changes to Yellen’s gradualist normalization path and should be a solid facilitator between the hawks and doves.

Main Macro Events Today

US NFP – Expectations – expected to surge at 312k in October, as the labor market gets back in gear following the hurricane disruptions that knocked employment down by 33k in September.

US Unemployment Rate – Expectations – unchanged at 4.2% for October.

Canadian Employment & Trade – Expectations – a 15.0k gain in October hiring after the 10.0k gain in September. The Employment has posted gains since December of last year. The trade deficit, is seen narrowing to -C$3.0 bln in September from -C$3.4 bln in August.

US PMIs – Expectations – The ISM nonmanufacturing indexshould dip to 58.5 in October.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th November 2017.

FX News Today

The President Trump is off to Asia, the earnings season is winding down and the data calendar is thinning. There are several central bank meetings in Asia, however, but they should maintain the status quo. The U.S. economic calendar is a fairly lean one this week should largely be overshadowed by the October payrolls report the week prior, even as U.S. data continues to hit escape velocity after the early dampening impact of the fall hurricanes and even the Napa firestorms.

United States: The week starts slowly with the release of JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), followed by the MBA mortgage applications and EIA energy inventory reports (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 6k to 235k for the November 11 week (Thursday), while wholesale sales are forecast to rise 1.0% in September vs 1.7% and inventories are expected to increase 0.3% vs 0.8%. The week rounds out with updates on preliminary Michigan sentiment (Friday) seen rising to a median 100.7 in November from 100.7. Fedspeak will be highlighted by a Chair Yellen acceptance speech at the Paul H. Douglas Award for Ethics in Government (Tuesday) from 15 ET, though one would imagine that there will be little of policy substance here as she begins the transition to Chair-nominee Powell.

Canada: The docket of economic data is housing-heavy this week. October housing starts (Wednesday) are expected to slip to 215.0k from 217.3k in September. Building permits (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.0% m/m in September after the 5.5% drop in August. The new housing price index (Thursday) is projected to gain 0.1% m/m in September, matching the 0.1% rise in August. Meanwhile, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks (Tuesday) to the CFA Montreal and Montreal Council on Foreign Relations. His speech is titled “Central banks’ ability to understand inflation.” The Governor will also hold a press conference following the speech. The Bank of Canada’s “cautious” approach prevailed from the announcement-MPR-press-conference in October through testimony to Parliament last week from Poloz and Wilkins.

Europe: With central bank decisions out of the way, the focus returns to Brexit talks. The December summit is approaching fast and so far there is no sign that there has been any progress on the key issues EU leaders want to have clarified before they agree to start trade talks. The data calendar is slowing down, but on the whole should confirm that the Eurozone recovery remains on track. German orders and production data may be expected to correct in September from the strong August numbers, but annual rates remain high and survey data suggests overall growth remained broadly steady at 0.6% q/q in Q3. The manufacturing orders expected (Monday) down -1.4% m/m and industrial production (Tuesday), down -1.2% m/m. The final reading for the Eurozone services PMI is likely to confirm that growth in the sector slowed down somewhat in October. September producer price inflation for the Eurozone (Monday), is expected to show an acceleration in the headline rate to 2.8% y/y from 2.5% y/y, as companies start to pass on cost pressures. Still, as the ECB already clarified its policy path until the end of September next year, the data don’t change the immediate outlook. Supply comes from Germany, which issues index linked bonds Tuesday and 5-year Bonds Wednesday.

UK: Both Gilt yields and sterling tumbled last week, with both adjusting to a lower trading range following the BoE’s guidance at its November MPC meeting last week. The calendar this week starts with the BRC retail sales report for October (Monday), which will be of interest following the much weaker than expected CBI distributive sales survey, which, although not normally taken too seriously (as it covers only a two week period with relative few survey respondents), fanned concerns about the health of the consumer sector in the face of eroding spend power, with inflating having been outstripping pay awards for most of the year. Other data of note include September production and trade figures (both due Friday), where a 0.3% m/m rise and a 1.9% y/y gain, expected.

China’s calendar has October trade (Wednesday), anticipated to widen to a $37.0 bln surplus from $28.6 bln in September. The CPI (Thursday) is projected at 1.8% y/y in October from 1.6% in September. The PPI (Thursday) is expected to slide to 6.5% y/y in October from 6.9% y/y in September. New Yuan loans (Friday) are seen falling to $900.0 bln in October from $1270.0 bln in September. Broadly, growth in China’s economy appears to be moderating.

Japan: Japan’s docket is sparse this week. Core machinery orders (Thursday) are expected to pull-back 3.0% m/m in September after the 3.4% bounce in August. The tertiary industry index (Friday) is projected to fall 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.2% decline in August.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting is the highlight. The Bank (Tuesday) is expected to hold the setting for the cash rate steady at 1.50%. The accompanying statement should be consistent with steady rates well into next year. The Bank releases an updated set of projections in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy. The economic data docket is empty of top tier releases this week. Housing investment (Thursday) is seen expanding 3.0% m/m in September after the 1.0% rise in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets rallied, with the Nikkei closing up 1.7%, ASX and Hang Seng also surged more than 1%. The Nikkei 225 closed at the highest level since 1992, underpinned by corporate earnings and the yen’s weakness against the dollar, while the turmoil in Saudi Arabia sent energy prices surging higher. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also up as the front end WTI future climbed above USD 57 per barrel. The local calendar today has U.K. house price numbers, Eurozone retail PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. Earlier German production data released, which corrected -1.6% m/m in September, more than anticipated. After the strong 2.6% m/m rise in the previous month, this was only a partial correction that still left the annual rate at a healthy 3.6% y/y and with orders continuing to surge ahead, production seems to have taken a breather at the end of the third quarter.

Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 1.50%, matching widespread expectations. Governor Lowe said the low level of interest rates is supporting the economy. The Board judged that holding rates steady would be “consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.” The AUD appreciation since mid year is “expected to contribute to continued subdued price pressures in the economy.” The Bank’s forecast remains “for inflation to pick-up gradually as the economy strengthens.” Finally, the Bank’s growth forecasts are largely unchanged, with growth expected to pick-up and average around 3% over the next few years. AUDUSD bumped higher to 0.7965 from 0.7680 on the as-expected result, but has quickly returned to 0.7680.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB & BoC – ECB President Draghi is due to deliver opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, in Frankfurt at 9:00 GMT. Later, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks to the CFA Montreal and Montreal Council on Foreign Relations, at 17:55 GMT.

Fedspeak – will be highlighted by a Chair Yellen acceptance speech at the Paul H. Douglas Award for Ethics in Government, though one would imagine that there will be little of policy substance here as she begins the transition to Chair-nominee Powell. . Moderate Fed Vice Chairman Quarles will take part in a discussion on financial regulation before the Clearing House Annual Conference.

Eu Retail Sales – Expectations – rise at 0.6% for September from -0.5%.

US Jolts Job Openings – Expectations – at 6.09M from 6.08M in August.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.