Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 16th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, after an uninspiring session on Wall Street. The Nikkei is up 0.02%, the ASX gained 0.23% as oil prices moved slightly higher and the Hang Seng is up 0.72% in contrast to a -0.30% drop in the CSI. Earnings reports, geopolitics and currencies remain in focus. Ongoing Sterling weakness is propping up the FTSE 100, and U.S. stock futures are also up. EGB yields meanwhile are rising and Eurozone peripheral yields in particular were pushed up yesterday as Germany’s top court raised doubts over the ECB’s stimulus program. Finance Minister Schaeuble told Handelsblatt, that in his view the ECB’s QE program remains within its mandate, but the uncertainty ahead of the final court decision will hang over markets. Still, yields moved back down from highs during yesterday’s session and things should calm down further after the initial announcement.

FX Update: The dollar majors settled in narrow ranges. USDJPY lost upside steam as global stock market performance turned more mixed following a rebound phase. The pair settled in the mid 110.00s after a three-day rally capped out yesterday at 110.84, an eight-day peak. And right on the 20 day moving average. EURUSD planted itself around 1.17740 after logging a one-week low at 1.1687 yesterday, which was seen following robust retail sales and Empire State index reports out of the U.S. USD-CAD settled below the one-month peak of yesterday, at 1.2778, and Cable rooted itself in the mid 1.28s after logging a one-month low yesterday at 1.2846. A central focal point today will be the release of the FOMC minutes to the June policy meeting. (Details below)

Yesterday’s US Reports: Mostly beat estimates and lifted prospects for GDP in 2017, with solid July retail sales gains after big and broad-based upward revisions, and an August Empire State surge to a 3-year high of 25.2. The June business inventory figures tracked estimates, with a big 0.5% June rise that included a tiny retail inventory undershoot, and a firm round of July trade prices led by gains for food export and oil import prices, with a skewing of price strength toward exports. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth estimates remain around 3.3% and 2.6% respectively.

Fedspeak: Kaplan repeated that the balance sheet unwind should start very soon, but gave no firm date, in a podcast with The American Banker. We’re looking for the FOMC to announce QT at the September 20, 21 meeting. But he also indicated, as he did Friday, that it’s appropriate to be patient on the timing of the next rate hike. Kaplan is a voter, and typically hawkish, so adds some risk to the call for a December rate increase. He believes there is still some slack in the labour market, but the firming jobs market should eventually translate into higher prices.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Minutes – The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday of 5 key elements: 1) Portfolio Pointers – any potential for more ‘definitive signal’ on balance sheet wind down in September sought. 2) Inflation Questions – potential for hot debate on cold inflation stats. 3) Another Rate Increase? – even some centrists have been disappointed by low inflation, could delay next hike. 4) Wither the Dollar? – weak dollar could inform debate on economy, inflation, exports, etc. 5) The Debt Limit, Again – just how much the Fed hits the ‘pause’ button or prepares to take emergency steps in the event of a shutdown could be revealed in the minutes.

Eurozone Q2 – Expectations are for a confirmation of the 0.6% (QoQ) and 2.1% (YoY) first reading.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2017.

FX News Today

Trump: Disbanded both Councils in a Tweet: “Rather than putting pressure on the businesspeople of the Manufacturing Council & Strategy & Policy Forum, I am ending both. Thank you all!” Seeing the writing on the wall, the 45th president of the U.S. is apparently attempting to fire them all (8 have already quit) before they can resign. Meanwhile, VP Pence is reportedly ending his Latam trip “a bit early” and returning to the U.S. after his visit in Panama. Gold and the yen both caught a bid after the announcement. Gossip is now swirling around his top team including Gary Cohn his chief economic adviser and the Presidents rumored preferred candidate as the next chair of the FED. EURUSD 1.1780, JPY 109.70 and Cable 1.2905. Gold trades at $1287 and USOil at $46.80 (having hit our $47.00 target).

Australian Jobs: Employment grew 27.9k in July after a revised 20.0k gain in June (was +14.0k). The increase in July mildly overshot expectations, but the details were less encouraging. Notably, full time employment retreated 20.3k after a revised 69.3k gain (was +62.0k). Part time jobs drove total employment gains in July, rebounding 48.2k after a slightly revised 49.3k decline (was -48.0k). The unemployment rate slipped to 5.6% in July from a revised 5.7% in June (was 5.6%). Employment growth has picked-up momentum this year, but wage growth remains weak. The wage price index, released Wednesday, grew at a 1.9% y/y pace in Q2, matching the growth rate in Q3 and Q4 of 2016, and Q1 of this year. That is the slowest rate on record (going back to 1998.)

FOMC Minutes: They showed definite concerns over inflation, and that gave the report a dovish bias. Meanwhile, most on the Committee preferred to defer the announce balance sheet unwinding until the upcoming (September 19, 20) meeting. Most members still expect inflation to pick up over the medium term, and still see a Phillips Curve connection between a tighter labor market and rising wage and price pressures, though a few doubted the validity of the framework. A number of causes for the sluggishness in inflation were bandied about, suggesting it’s not just idiosyncratic factors weighing. Some participants believed there was room for the FOMC to be patient on further rate hikes. But others saw inflation moving on a clear path toward the 2% target and were concerned about the effect of a tighter labor market. On the appropriate pace of normalization of the funds rate, the FOMC fell back to acknowledging it would depend on how financial conditions evolved. As for the balance sheet, it looks as though it will be announced at the September 19, 20 meeting. “Although several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the program at the current meeting, most preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets.”

US Housing Starts: The July U.S. housing starts report revealed declines of 4.8% for starts, 4.1% for permits, and 6.2% for completions, after small net upward revisions that sustained big June bounces from weak May levels, leaving a weaker than expected report. July declines were led by the multi-family sector, with drop-backs in the northeast and midwest after June gains, but with substantial weakness in the south since a spike in January that has left starts underperforming other housing series. We saw a third consecutive drop for the important starts under construction series, which hasn’t risen since April. Starts and permits have shown a 2017 pullback after a weather-led Q4 surge, while completions were strong through Q1 before stabilizing.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone CPI – The Eurozone CPI for July is due this morning and expected to show no change in the (YoY) headline figure at 1.3% (MoM dipping to -0.5%) and the key Core CPI (YoY) ticking up to 1.2% (from 1.1%) and MoM no change at 0.2%.

US Initial Jobless – Initial claims data for the week of August 12 are out today and should ease down to 238k for the week from 244k last week and 241k in the week prior. Overall, claims in August look poised to improve over July with an anticipated 240k month average, down from 242k in July. This supports expectations for continued strength in the labour market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk aversion is back. Sharp losses on Wall Street were followed by a largely negative session in Asia, with the Nikkei underperforming and down more than -1.2% amid a stronger yen. Concerns over Trump and the terror attacks in Spain have prompted investors to head for safety and Bund futures rallied in after hour trade, pointing to a fresh drop in core yields. FTSE 100 futures are down, although U.S. stock futures are stabilizing. Today’s local calendar has Eurozone current account and construction output numbers, none of which are likely to detract markets from a focus on geo-politics.

German producer prices: higher than expected, with the headline rate falling back only slighty to 2.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y in the previous month. Annual price increases for basic goods eased further, but at 3.0% y/y the rate remains high and the pace of decline since the peak in April has slowed, despite the strong EUR. At the same time, energy price inflation picked up to 1.9% y/y from 1.6% y/y. Capitsl, and durable goods price inflation ticked marginally higher, but remains low at 1.1% y/y for each category. Bund futures corrected from the highs seen in after hour trade yesterday, but remain up on the day.

Yesterday’s US Reports: reveal solid factory and labor market readings that signal ongoing upside risk for GDP and payroll growth, though we saw a 4-year low of 10.3 mln for the July vehicle assembly rate that shows a big hit from this year’s auto retooling pattern. Industrial production rose 0.2% in July after upward revisions that left an as-expected report. We saw a solid 18.9 August Philly Fed figure, with a big ISM-adjusted Philly Fed bounce to 56.9 from 53.0. Given Tuesday’s Empire State headline surge to a 3-year high of 25.2 from 9.8, producer sentiment appears to be stabilizing at remarkably high levels. We also saw a 12k initial claims drop to a lean 232k in the BLS survey week, leaving a lean 237k average thus far in August. Finally, leading indicators rose 0.3% in July to leave a solid 11-month string of gains, and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose to a 52.1 cycle-high.

ECB minutes: stressed need for caution with regard not just to changes in communication, but also the timing of the next announcement. On the one hand council members feared overreactions in markets to changes in communication, on the other hand some seemed to warn that leaving the announcement on the future of QE too late would likely see markets making up their own mind and leave the ECB with the task of correcting out of synch expectations. Council members noted the tightening impact of the stronger EUR and some raised the risk of overshooting currency markets, putting exchange rate developments into the spotlight going ahead. The ECB wants to maintain its flexibility with regard to asset purchases, but members also raised the issue of flows/versus stock of assets. Indeed the last time around Draghi reduced monthly purchase volumes, but still stressed that this meant a further expansion of stimulus, with just the pace of expansion reduced somewhat. It could well be that rather than laying out a full tapering schedule for the phasing out of monthly purchases Draghi will stick to a similar line and focus just on the next part of what is likely to be a very gradual reduction of QE. The minutes didn’t give a clearer hint on the timing of the announcement, beyond the “autumn” schedule Draghi already indicated at the meeting.

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian CPI – The CPI expected to come in flat (0.0%) for July relative to June, leaving a pick-up in the annual growth rate to 1.2% in July from 1.0% in June. Gasoline prices plunged in June before improving only modestly through July. Indeed, the average gasoline price in July was actually modestly below the average price in June (prices started firm in June, then tracked sharply lower into near month end). Also, the loonie staged a furious rally in July amid the BoC’s rate hike and hawkish guidance. Finally, Ontario electricity prices should again knock total inflation lower, as time of use pricing was chopped roughly 15% by government decree. (This is one of the temporary factors cited by Poloz on inflation back in July.)

US UoM CSI – The first August release on Michigan Sentiment is out today and should post an increase to 94.0 from 93.4 in July and 95.1 in June. Other confidence measures are looking stronger in August as well with the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 52.2 from 50.2 in July and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort survey poised to average 51.8 from 48.3 in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2017.

FX News Today

The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week will be the focal point on the calendar, while U.S. politics and geopolitical factors may become sidebars. Friday’s agenda for the annual Kansas City central banker meeting (this year on “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”) includes two key speeches, one by Fed Chair Yellen and the other from ECB President Draghi. Despite being temporarily eclipsed by terror events and political machinations, perceptions about central bank policies remain a major force in market direction.

United States: the political fallout after the tragedy in Charlottesville and the cabinet reshuffling, instilled doubt in investors who began to price in doubts that President Trump will be able to effect his infrastructure plans and/or tax reforms this year, while the terror events in Barcelona, Spain and Turku, Finland added to anxieties. Worries that Cohn might resign shook stocks mid-week. Of global interest will be whether these moves bring some stability to the White House and an opportunity to move the agenda forward. The U.S. economic calendar is relatively light one this week, starting off (Monday) with the Chicago Fed national activity index, followed (Tuesday) by a ragtag mix of FHFA home prices, Markit flash manufacturing PMI and the Richmond Fed index. The schedule gets more interesting midweek with the release of housing data. New home sales are forecast to dip 1.3% to 602k in July (Wednesday), while EIA energy inventory and MBA mortgage market reports are due too. Initial jobless claims may rebound 6k to 238k (Thursday) for the August-19 week, while Markit services flash PMI is on tap. July durable goods orders are expected to give back -6.0% of June’s 6.4% jump (Friday).

Nevertheless, Fed Chair Yellen will speak at Jackson Hole on August 25 at 10 ET. Her topic is “financial stability.” It’s not clear that she’ll offer any surprises on the policy outlook given what we know from the recent minutes, Fedspeak, and data. The FOMC is now widely expected to announce balance sheet unwinding next month.

Canada: final inputs to the June GDP forecast are due out early this week. Wholesale shipments (Monday) are expected to fall. Retail sales values (Tuesday) are projected to rise 0.3% m/m in June after the 0.6% expansion in May. Another firm month is expected for seasonally adjusted vehicle sales. But CPI implies a drag on retail sales values from falling prices. Notably, falling gasoline prices should weigh on total and ex-autos retail sales. The exclusion of vehicle sales should leave a tiny 0.1% gain in June sales. Retail sales volumes have expanded in all but one month this year. Combined with the pick-up in total ondata and core CPI during July, the Bank of Canada is on track for another rate hike this year. However this week, there is again nothing on the docket from the Bank of Canada. The next scheduled event is the September 6 policy announcement.

Europe: Draghi’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday will be taking center stage. But in the light of the fresh flare up in risk aversion and ongoing geopolitical tensions, he is unlikely to clarify the future of the ECB’s quantitative easing program just yet. The ECB has confirmed that Draghi will be speaking on the general theme of the conference rather than Eurozone specifics. Data releases this week focus on August confidence numbers, which should support the ECB’s view that the recovery continues to broaden. The German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) expected to be particularly impacted by the latest spell of risk aversion in markets and are looking for a decline in the headline August reading to 16.0 from 17.5 in July. The German Ifo Business Climate are out on Friday. On a Eurozone-wide level, the preliminary August Services PMI (Wednesday) is expected steady at 55.4. Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence numbers are also due. Detailed readings for Q2 GDP from Germany and Spain, meanwhile, are not expected to bring major surprises, with German rate likely to show strong domestic demand, driven by consumer and government consumption, as well as investments.

UK: The economy has slumped into relative stagnation this year, associated with Brexit concerns. The calendar this week is relatively quiet, highlighted by second estimate Q2 GDP data (Thursday), which is likely to confirm growth at 0.3% q/q , half the Eurozone growth figure for the same quarter. The August industrial trends and distributive sales surveys are also out from the CBI (Tuesday and Thursday, respectively).

New Zealand’s calendar has the trade balance (Thursday), expected to shift to a NZ$100 mln deficit in July from the NZ$242 mln surplus in June. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. We expect no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end.

Japan: the June all-industry index (Monday) should rebound 0.5% m/m versus the prior 0.9% decline. The calendar then goes dark until Friday, when CPI figures are due. July national CPI is seen rising at a 0.5% y/y overall from 0.4 previously, and 0.5% y/y from 0.4% on a core basis. Tokyo August overall CPI is penciled in at a 0.2% y/y rate from 0.1%, while the core reading is expected unchanged at 0.2% y/y. July services PPI (Friday) is forecast accelerating to 0.9% y/y from 0.8% in June.

Australia: the week that is devoid of economic data and RBA events. The next report of interest is July building approvals, due August 30. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5. No change is expected to the current 1.50% policy setting, alongside a statement that remains consistent with no change in rates through the middle of next year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher in quiet trade, after Wall Street managed to close with slight gains. Hong Kong stocks outperformed on positive earnings report, while Japan underperformed despite a weaker Yen. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher and it seems risk appetite is slowly returning, after being knocked back by geopolitics. Bund futures continued to rise though in after hour trade yesterday the 10-year Bund yield, which closed below 0.4% may make little headway at the start. The local calendar is hotting up today, providing some distraction from the political arena. German ZEW investor confidence and the U.K.’s CBI industrial trends survey will give a flavour of the economic situation on both sides of the Channel and the U.K. also has public finance data for July.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer versus many currencies during the pre-London session in Asia, including against the euro, and commodity and emerging world currencies, though the greenback gained versus the yen. A revival in risk appetite brought some pressure on the Japanese currency, while there remains a degree of position jostling ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (which starts on Thursday). USD-JPY lifted back to the low 109.0s after dipping yesterday to a low of 108.63, which by our data is 3 pips above last Friday’s four-month low. EUR-USD, meanwhile, ebbed back to the 1.1800 level after yesterday logging a one-week high at 1.1828, and USD-CAD carved out an 18-day low at 1.2547 and AUD-USD a three-session peak, at 0.7950. Cable has entered its fifth consecutive session of orbiting 1.2900.

Canada’s wholesale report maintained the outlook for weak June GDP, with a flat reading (0.0%) expected after the 0.6% GDP surge in May. Wholesale shipment volumes fell 0.7% in June. The final ingredient for GDP is today’s retail sales report, where a 0.3% gain is expected in total shipment values, which a larger (0.5% or better) improvement in volumes. Housing starts grew 9.5% to a 212.9k pace in June from 194.5k in May. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values plummeted 9.2% m/m in June while petroleum and coal manufacturing shipment values dropped 7.1%. However, the erosion in petro and coal values was driven by falling prices, suggestive of a less pronounced decline in the GDP report’s petro and coal volume measure. A flat reading in June GDP would leave a lofty 3.7% growth pace for Q2. Moreover, any pull-back in June GDP should be temporary. Hence, the broader theme of upbeat growth remains supportive of a 25 bp rate hike from the BoC to 1.00% in October.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW Sentiment – German ZEW investor confidence expected to be particularly impacted by the latest spell of risk aversion in markets and are looking for a decline in the headline August reading to 15.5 from 17.5 in July.

Canada retail sales – Retail sales, expected to rise 0.3% m/m in June after the 0.6% expansion in May. Another firm month is expected for seasonally adjusted vehicle sales. CPI implies a drag on retail sales values from falling prices. Notably, falling gasoline prices should weigh on total and ex-autos retail sales, and hence we’d put the risk to the downside on this report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, after a positive session on Wall Street amid reports of progress on Trump’s overhaul of the tax code and a solid PMI reading from Japan. The Hang Seng continues to outperform and is currently up 0.91%. The ASX underperformed and is down -0.28%, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also in the red, so the rebound in equity markets seems to be petering out already. The Bund future fell in after hour trade, before stabilising, but after yesterday’s blow out in Eurozone spreads the main question is how peripheral yields cope with lingering tapering concerns ahead of Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Draghi is already scheduled to speak at a meeting on economic sciences in Germany this morning. The calendar also has preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for August, which are expected to nudge lower again, especially after yesterday’s weak ZEW reading. Growth will remain robust, but just not as strong as so far it seems. On tab is also a German 10-year auction.

US reports: flat U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index at 14 in August after rising 3 points to that level in July amid broadbased gains. The year-to-date range has been from 3 (May) to 19 (February) and was at 1 in October. The employment component increased to 17 after doubling to 10 in July from June’s 5, The growth in prices paid slowed to 1.49% pace versus 1.78% previously, with prices received at 0.91% from 0.99%. . All in all, it was a solid report that reflects the ongoing trend of decent growth and slumping prices. U.S. FHFA home price index edged up 0.1% to 249.3 in June after rising 0.3% to 249.1 in May, Prices are up 6.5% y/y. Six of the nine regions surveyed posted gains, led by the Pacific (1.0%) and the West South Central (0.8%).Home prices were up in nearly every state, according to the report. Tight inventories were cited as the factor propping up prices every quarter over the last six years.

Canada’s 0.5% gain in retail shipment volumes contrasted with recent disappointing monthly industry data. The rise in retail sales volumes added to the run of gains from January to May. There was a less severe than anticipated 0.7% drop in wholesale shipment volumes and a 1.0% drop in manufacturing volumes. Housing starts grew 9.5% to a 212.9k pace in June. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. But the outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values plummeted 9.2% m/m in June while petroleum and coal manufacturing shipment values dropped 7.1%. However, the erosion in petro and coal values was driven by falling prices, suggestive of a less pronounced decline in the GDP report’s petro and coal volume measure. A 0.1% gain in June GDP would leave a lofty 3.9% growth pace for Q2.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Services PMI – On a Eurozone-wide level, the preliminary August Services PMI is expected steady at 55.4 , and the manufacturing reading slightly lower at 56.3 from 56.6 in July.

US Home Sales – New home sales are forecast to dip 1.3% to 602k in July, while EIA energy inventory are out today too.

US Markit PMI – The preliminary August Services PMI is expected steady at 55.3 , and the manufacturing reading slightly lower at 56.4 from 56.6 in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets mostly higher despite fresh concerns about Trump’s ability to pass his fiscal agenda. The Hang Seng continued to outperform on earnings optimism and amid strong volumes as markets reopened after a Typhoon interruption. The ASX is little changed as commodity profits offset Trump Concerns, but the Nikkei was weighed down by steelmakers. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher and U.S. futures are heading south as the Jackson Hole meeting draws nearer. European peripherals have been feeling the chill of tapering concerns after better than expected PMI readings and amid concerns that Draghi will use tomorrow’s speech to commit to a tapering schedule. This will likely ensure Bund outperformance versus peripherals, while Gilts as well as the FTSE 100 are underpinned by a weakening Pound. Today’s calendar focuses on the second reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as the CBI distributive trade survey.

Fedspeak: Yesterday Fed’s Kaplan reiterated balance sheet runoff should begin soon, while he also repeated he wants to be patient on further rate hikes. He was holding a Q&A session at a Permian Basin Petroleum Association luncheon. He wants more information on inflation trends. He attributed some of the softness in prices is likely the result of technological breakthroughs. But, he also believes that tight labor market conditions do argue for removal of some accommodation. On the oil markets he added that the they are in a fragile equilibrium currently. Shale and African drillers are offsetting OPEC cuts. But, there is a good chance of a global under-supply in 5 or 7 years. Notable is the fact that Kaplan is a voter who’s recently become more worried about the slowing in price pressures.

US reports: a big 9.4% U.S. July new home sales drop to a 571k rate followed 46k in upward revisions over the prior three months to leave a stronger than expected report overall. A modest Q2-Q3 unwind of a big Q1 sales boost from a mild winter. New home sales have risen 111% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, alongside smaller cyclical climbs of 44% for pending home sales and 60% for existing home sales from lows in 2010. Meanwhile, U.S. August Markit manufacturing PMI fell 0.8 points to 52.5 in the preliminary print, unwinding some of the 1.3 point gain to 53.3 in July. It was 52.0 a year ago. However, the services index jumped 2.2 points to 56.9 after rising 0.5 points to 54.7 in July. This is the highest since April 2015. It was 51.0 a year ago.

Eurozone: Draghi hailed QE at a conference yesterday in Germany and forward guidance as success, saying that research showed that while forward guidance is “a useful instrument” “its effectiveness can be improved with other non-standard monetary policies”. Speaking at a conference on economic science Draghi said “research has confirmed that central banks are not powerless at the effective lower bound”, but stressed that policy makers must continue “preparing for new challenges”, and that “when the world chances”, policies and “especially monetary policies need to be adjusted”. Nothing there that directly refers to the future of QE. On Economic data prospective, Eurozone PMIs suggested inflation is on the mend, with Markit reporting that the “recent trend of easing inflationary pressures came to an end in August, with cost inflation picking up for the first time since February”. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI showed that manufacturing orders were boosted by “the fastest rise in exports for six-and-a-half years”. So quite a bit there to boost the arguments of the hawks at the ECB and dampen concerns about the strong EUR.

Main Macro Events Today

Jackson Hole – The symposium begins today and the markets will be wary of comments coming out of the annual central banker gather. Most important will be Friday’s speeches from Fed Chair Yellen (10ET) and ECB President Draghi (13 ET). However, past performance (at Jackson Hole) is no guarantee of future results. So, while monetary authorities have often used this venue to hint, or even outline, new policy measures, it is not expect that to be the case this time. There isn’t much new that Yellen can say given the recent update in the FOMC minutes and via Fedspeak and data. It looks as though balance sheet unwinding is a done deal for the fall. And it’s too early, and inappropriate for her to presage rate action over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the ECB has indicated Draghi will have nothing new to say and will focus on the theme of the symposium, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.”

UK GDP- Q2 GDP data is likely to confirm growth at 0.3% q/q , half the Eurozone growth figure for the same quarter.

US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial jobless claims expected to rebound 6k to 238k for the August-19 week.

US Existing Home Sales – July existing home sales data is out today and should post a 1.4% headline improvement to a 5.570 mlnpace after a 1.8% dip to 5.520 mln in June. Other housing measures weakened in July with the NAHB dipping to 64 from 66 in June and housing starts dropping to 1,155k from 1,213k in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, going into the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers, where Draghi and Yellen will take centre stage. The ASX underperformed and fluctuated between gains and losses, while the Nikkei managed to move higher, lifted by automakers, as the yen is heading for a weekly loss. Hang Seng and CSI 300 outperformed. U.K. stock futures are down, but U.S. futures are posting gains. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 47.76 per barrel. Today the real focus will be on Yellen and in particular Draghi, with the latter unlikely to lay out a full tapering schedule, but it will be interesting to see whether he is laying the groundwork for a change in focus in the policy communication as the central bank heads for a gradual reduction of additional stimulus measures.

Today’s German Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0.6% q/q, as expected. The breakdown showed that growth rested on domestic demand, with investment remaining robust, while Q1 investment data was revised up markedly. A further confirmation that the current recovery is unusually for Germany as it is not the export led recovery that we have seen in previous cycles. Rather it is domestic demand that is propping up growth, also thanks to the ECB and the policy of easy money, which is underpinning consumption as well as investment. The robust data will also back Weidmann’s calls for an end to QE though. German import price inflation came in lower than anticipated, with the annual rate falling back to 1.9% from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. Prices were down -0.4% m/m. The strong EUR is leaving its mark and will likely to continue to bring import price inflation down, with the annual rate now back below the ECB’s 2% mark.

US reports: U.S. reports revealed a weak round of July existing home sales figures but a firm set of initial claims data through mid-August, hence slightly trimming forecasts for the residential component of Q3 GDP, but adding to the upside risk for 190k August nonfarm payroll estimate. We saw a 1.3% July existing home sales drop to a 5.44 mln pace that undershot estimates, alongside smaller downside surprises for median prices and inventories after downward revisions for all three in June. For claims, we saw a 2k rise to a still-lean 234k in the third week of August that left a lean trajectory into the month. Claims are averaging juste 236k in August, versus higher prior averages of 242k in July, 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April, while the 232k BLS survey week figure undershot recent BLS survey weak readings of 234k in July, 242k in June, 233k in May, and 243k in April.

Main Macro Events Today

German IFO – German Ifo Business Climate, should still benefit from the strong orders inflow and therefore a small fall back is expected from record highs to 115.7 in August from 116.0.

US Durable Goods- Durable goods data for July expected at a -5.7% headline with shipments down 0.3% and inventories at 0.2%. This follows June data which had orders up 6.4%, sales unchanged and inventories up 0.5% for the month. There were significant dips in vehicle assemblies and Boeing orders for the month which could weigh on the release.

Jacksol Hole – Fed Chair Yellen will speak at Jackson Hole today at 10 ET. Her topic is “financial stability.” ECB’s Draghi was confirmed to speak at 13:00 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2017.

FX News Today

Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi mostly discussed regulations in their Jackson Hole speeches. However, Draghi did repeat in Q&A that “a significant degree of monetary accommodation is still warranted” and that policymakers must remain “on guard” until the inflation goal is achieved. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s Kuroda stressed in a Bloomberg TV interview that “extremely accommodative” policy will continue for some time. It looks like the big three central banks will remain in slow motion as they look toward the exit. While there’s no meaningful change seen in monetary policy near term, there are several risks ahead that will keep the markets on their toes. North Korea remains a clear and present danger, the U.S. debt limit is also a growing risk, while this week, the president is expected to go on the road to talk up tax reform.

United States: U.S. markets will have a lot to digest this week, including key economic data, supply, and month-end flows, all while keeping a close eye on Washington. Hence, this week’s data, especially jobs and the PCE price index, will be important for the medium term outlook, though not crucial for the immediate term. No one expects action on rates next month, and Fed funds future are suggesting only about a 33% chance for a tightening at the December 12, 13 FOMC. Employment data has continued to come in strong, indeed “very strong,” as noted by Fed Governor Powell last week, and therefore expected more of the same in August. Payrolls (Friday) should rise 190k after July’s 209k gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, tying the lowest rate since May 2001. Earnings are expected to rise 0.2% following the 0.3% July increase.

The income, consumption data for July (Thursday) will be just as important for the FOMC. The data will help fine tune GDP forecasts, but more importantly provide an update on the PCE price index, the main measure for the Fed. Other data this week includes August auto sales (Friday), the August ISM (Friday) is expected to ease to 55.7 in August after sliding 1.5 points to 56.3 in July. The index is still holding firm and well above the 52.0 in November. Consumer confidence figures for August are due as well (Tuesday and Friday). Confidence is seen rising to 122.0 after climbing 3.8 points to 121.1 in July. The final read on consumer sentiment for August from the University of Michigan survey (Friday) should edge up further to 98.0 after the surprise 4.2 point jump to 97.6 in the preliminary report. Also of interest is the revised Q2 GDP data (Wednesday). Other releases this week include the August ADP (Wednesday), the August Dallas Fed and Chicago PMI, July Advance trade numbers, June Case-Shiller home price index, July pending home sales, and July construction spending.

Canada: June and Q2 GDP reports are the focus this week. GDP (Thursday) is expected to accelerate to a 4.0% growth rate in Q2 (q/q) following the 3.7% gain in real GDP during Q1. Meanwhile, the current account (Wednesday) is expected to post a -C$18.0 bln deficit in Q2, worsening from -C$14.1 bln in Q1, courtesy of a deepening in the nominal goods deficit in Q2 relative to Q1. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is seen falling 0.5% in July (m/m, NSA) after the 1.0% drop in June. But the loonie continued its sharp appreciation against the U.S. dollar, which we see driving the IPPI lower in July relative to June. Dealer reported vehicle sales for August are expected on Friday. The August Markit Manufacturing PMI is due Friday. Average weekly earnings for June are due Wednesday. The Bank of Canada’s day planner is again blank this week. The next scheduled event from the Bank of Canada is the September 6 policy announcement.

Europe: The data calendar is very busy and brings the first round of preliminary August inflation data as well as the latest set of confidence data for August in the form of the European Commission’s ESI economic sentiment indicator. Inflation expected to nudge higher slightly, but the Eurozone headline rate is still expected to remain clearly below the 2% limit in coming months, giving the ECB more room to ponder its options before clarifying the outlook for QE next year. After the somewhat better than expected PMI readings, the ESI Economic Confidence indicator (Wednesday) is expected to nudge higher to 111.4 from 114.2, helped by an improvement in consumer confidence and an expected rise in industrial sentiment. Indeed, the final August Manufacturing PMI (Friday) is likely to be confirmed at a very strong 57.4 suggesting a fresh acceleration in activity over the summer. German GfK consumer confidence reading for September (Tuesday) expected to remain steady at a very high 10.8. Ongoing improvements on the labor market are underpinning consumer confidence and PMI readings also suggest the job creation continued in August albeit at a somewhat slower pace than in July. Meanwhile the Eurozone unemployment rate for July (Thursday) is seen falling to 9.0% from 9.1%.

The calendar also has French consumer spending as well as German retail sale, Eurozone M3 sa (Y/Y) money supply growth, detailed Q2 GDP readings from Italy (Friday) and France (Tuesday) are likely to confirm preliminary readings of 0.4% q/q and 0.5% q/q respectively. Supply includes a German 2-year Schatz auction on Wednesday. The German HICP rate (Wednesday) expected to pick up to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% y/y in the previous month and the French rate (Thursday) to nudge up to 0.8% y/y from 0.7%, which should leave the overall Eurozone HICP rate (Thursday) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.3% y/y in July.

UK: The relative stagnation of the UK economy was in full evidence last week. July leading from the BoE feature in this week’s calendar (Wednesday), along with the August Gfk consumer confidence survey (Thursday), and the August manufacturing PMI survey (Friday). The net consumer credit expected to come in unchanged at GBP 1.5 bln and mortgage approvals to tick up to 65.4k from 64.7k. The consumer confidence eroding to show a new low of -14 from -12 in the month prior, while the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.2 outcome after 55.0 in the prior month.

New Zealand’s slate has Q2 import and export prices (Friday). Building permits for July are due Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. Hence no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.

Japan: July unemployment (Tuesday) is pencilled in at an unchanged 2.8%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.51. July personal income and PCE are also due Tuesday, with the latter expected up 1.0% y/y from 2.3% previously. July retail sales (Wednesday) are seen up 0.1% y/y from up 0.2% for large retailers, and up 1.0% overall from the prior 2.2% rise. Preliminary July industrial production (Thursday) should slow to 0.5% y/y from 2.2% in June. July housing starts (Thursday) are forecast at a 1.5% y/y clip from up 1.7%. July construction spending is also due Thursday. The MoF Q2 capex survey (Friday) should rise 8.0% from 4.5%, while the August manufacturing PMI (Friday) is anticipated to have risen to 52.5 from 52.1. August auto sales are also due Friday.

China: August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to ease to 51.0 from 51.4, while the August Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) should slip to 50.9 from 51.1. Both remain in expansionary territory, however.

Australia: Australia’s economic data includes July building approvals (Wednesday), expected to fall 6.0% in July after the 10.9% y/y surge in June. Private new capital expenditures (Thursday) are seen gaining 1.0% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% rise in Q1. Construction work done for Q2 is due Wednesday, while private sector credit is out Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Head of Financial Market Infrastructures, Payments Policy Department Sarah Harris participates in a panel at the Risk Australia 2017 Conference (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets broadly headed south, yields declined, as investors headed for safety, after North Korea launched a missile that flew over Japan before plunging into the sea. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also under pressure and with the EUR remaining above 1.19 against the dollar, Eurozone stock markets are likely to extend yesterday’s losses, thus adding to pressure on bond yields. The 10-year Bund is back at levels last seen at the end of June, as the ECB remains cautious on the future of QE next year. Geopolitical events are likely to overshadow the local calendar.

FX Update: The dollar has come under fresh pressure as the London inter-bank take to their desks. EURUSD has punched out new 31-month highs, this time above 1.1990, while the narrow trade-weighted USD index hit a 16-month low at 92.06. USDJPY dove to a four-month low at 108.33 in early Asia-Pacific dealings before settling in the upper 108.0s. The low was seen following news that North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japan before landing in the sea. Markets are also factoring the storm damage and disruption in Texas, and a tumultuous political backdrop in Washington DC. This backdrop has maintained dollar weakness and demand for safe havens, such as the Japanese yen. Japanese data today showed unemployment falling to 2.8% in July and job availability rising for a fifth straight month, though to little market impact. Elsewhere, Cable hit a two-week high at 1.2954, and commodity currencies under-performed.

Today’s German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved to 10.9 in the September projection, from 10.8 in August. The breakdown, which is only available for August, shows a renewed pick up in income expectations and the willingness to buy, despite the fact that economic expectations actually fell back markedly in August. The willingness to save meanwhile dropped with price expectations. Another very strong German confidence number that confirms that economic activity remains very strong over the summer quarter.

US reports: revealed July figures for the trade deficit and inventories that tracked our assumptions on net, though both exports and imports were weaker than expected, and a downward tweak in the June wholesale trade figures trimmed our Q2 GDP estimate to 3.0% from 3.1%, versus the 2.6% advance figure. Though we don’t have damage estimates for Harvey yet, we’ve lowered our industrial production and mining assumptions for August and September and have trimmed our housing sector assumptions, while boosting estimates for building material sales and construction. We will see a boost in factory activity outside of the region that will mitigate some of the local lost output, and we have left our Q3 GDP estimate at 3.5%. Note that today’s August Dallas Fed index, with survey data that predates Harvey, rose slightly to a robust 17.0 from 16.8.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence- August consumer confidence is out Tuesday and we expect the headline to climb to 122.0 (median 120.0) from 121.1 in July and 117.3 in June. Other measures of confidence for August have been stronger with Michigan Sentiment rising to 97.6 from 93.4 in July and the IBD/TIPP Poll climbing to 52.2 from 50.2 in July.

Canadian IPPI – The industrial product price index is seen falling 0.5% in July (m/m, NSA) after the 1.0% drop in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Markets started to recover from the latest bout of risk aversion during the late U.S. session and after Wall Street managed to close with slight gains, Nikkei and Hang Seng bounced back in Asia overnight. CSI 300 and ASX are little changed on the day and at least yesterday’s sell off was halted. U.K. stock futures are also higher, pointing to a rebound on European equity markets, which sold off Tuesday. Bund futures already started to come down from highs during yesterday’s late and after hour session and core yields should move up from yesterday’s lows, especially in the Eurozone where the expected pick up in German HICP and a still strong ESI economic sentiment reading should provide support. The U.K. has money supply and consumer credit data and Switzerland releases the latest KOF leading indicator.

New Zealand: The Statistics New Zealand released yesterday Building Permits data for July,which arrived at -0.7% from -1.0% last month. According to statistics manager Melissa McKenzie: ” July’s fall was driven by the number of consented apartments, townhouses, and retirement units, which fluctuates from month to month. The fall for multi-unit dwellings was partly offset by an increase for stand-alone houses” . The RBNZ Governor Wheeler had a scheduled speech titled “Reflections on the stewardship of the Reserve Bank”, via Reuters, in which it highlighted that, a lower New Zealand dollar is needed to increase tradables inflation and help deliver more balanced growth and also “to spook the market” as he particularly mentioned. “The appreciation in the exchange rate has been a headwind for the tradables sector and, by reducing already weak tradables inflation, made it more difficult to reach the Bank’s inflation goals,” Wheeler said. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28 and it is expected to keep the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end.

US reports: U.S. consumer confidence rise to 122.9 from 120.0 (was 121.1) in July and 117.3 in June left consumer confidence at its strongest level since the 16-year high of 124.9 in March, and at its second highest level since December of 2000. All the confidence surveys show a big climb into 2017 despite small pull-backs from Q1 peaks, and with a surprising resumed updraft in August. The Michigan sentiment index popped to 97.6 from 93.4 in July, versus a 13-year high of 98.5 in January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 52.2 from 50.2 in July and 51.3 in both May and June, versus a 56.4 cycle-high in February. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index rose to a cycle-high 52.8 in the third week of August, and is averaging a solid 52.1 thus far in the month, which would also mark a monthly cycle-high, versus a 48.3 average in July. Confidence, producer sentiment and small business optimism have climbed since October despite setbacks in the face of surprising inventory weakness, but a factory rebound that is trimming excess capacity, equity and home price gains, and residual hopes for tax cuts and stimulus spending.

Main Macro Events Today

German HICP – The German HICP rate expected to pick up to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% y/y in the previous month

UK Consumer Credit & Mortgage Approvals – The net consumer credit expected to come in unchanged at GBP 1.5 bln and mortgage approvals to tick up to 65.4k from 64.7k. The consumer confidence eroding to show a new low of -14 from -12 in the month prior, while the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.2 outcome after 55.0 in the prior month.

EU ESI- ESI Economic Confidence indicator is expected to nudge higher to 111.4 from 114.2, helped by an improvement in consumer confidence and an expected rise in industrial sentiment.

Canadian Current Account- The current account is expected to post a -C$18.0 bln deficit in Q2, worsening from -C$14.1 bln in Q1, courtesy of a deepening in the nominal goods deficit in Q2 relative to Q1.

US ADP and GDP- August ADP employment data should post a 185k headline following a 178k headline in July and 191k in June. Meanwhile, Prelim GDP q/q for Q2 expected to rise 0.1% from 2.6% released last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: A mixed session in Asia, where Nikkei and ASX are moving higher, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are under pressure amid profit taking as investors start to doubt the recent run higher. Banks led the correction despite better than expected earnings numbers and a stronger than hoped China manufacturing PMI. A weaker Yen meanwhile helped the Nikkei to move higher despite weaker than anticipated production data. European and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher as risk appetite comes back. Released overnight U.K. consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. The very busy European calendar includes labour market data out of Germany at the start of the session, and most importantly prel Eurozone HICP for August, which after yesterday’s national data is likely to come in higher than initially anticipated, as annual energy price inflation surges higher. The second round of Brexit talks ends today and the update is unlikely to show the type of progress that would prompt heads of states to clear the way for future trade talks to start this year when they meet in October

German July retail sales dropped -1.2% m/m, more than anticipated, but with June revised up to 1.3% m/m from 1.1% m/m, the annual rate still rose to 2.7% y/y from 2.0% y/y in June. The three months trend rate fell back to 0.6% from 0.9% in the three months to June. Mixed data, but retail sales are volatile, subject to heavy revisions and cover less than 50% of private consumption and with latest consumer confidence at the highest level in nearly 16 years, consumption is set to continue to underpin the robust recovery. Especially as the labour market is looking increasingly tight.

US reports: revealed the expected Q2 GDP growth boost to 3.0% from 2.6% with component revisions that also closely tracked assumptions, alongside a solid 237k August ADP rise that beat the 185k private payroll estimate with a 190k total nonfarm payroll increase, after a big boost in the July rise to 201k from 178k that narrowed the gap to the 205k private payroll increase last month. For GDP, the data leave Q3 growth on track for a solid 3.5% climb led by strength in business fixed investment. For ADP, we now have a robust 223k average rise in 2017 that signals ongoing upside risk for U.S. payroll growth that may well materialize in Friday’s report, though ADP has persistently overshot reported job growth since the last methodology change in October.Meanwhile, WTI crude was virtually unchanged at $46 area following the EIA inventory data which showed a 5.4 mln bbl fall in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 3.5 mln bbl decrease. Focus remains on damage to energy infrastructure following hurricane Harvey. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.5 mln bbls were flat, while distillate stocks were up 700k bbls, versus expectations for an unchanged reading. Refinery usage rose to 96.6% from 95.4%.

Main Macro Events Today

EU HICP – After yesterday’s stronger than expected inflation numbers from Spain and Germany forecast lifted for the Eurozone number to 1.5% y/y from 1.4% y/y expected previously. German data suggests the expected uptick from 1.3% y/y in July will be mainly driven by higher annual rates for energy and food prices, which means core inflation is unlikely to see the same acceleration as the headline rate and even the latter remains clearly below the ECB’s 2% upper limit for price stability.

Canadian GDP – Q2 real GDP is expected to accelerate to a 4.0% pace (q/q, saar) from the robust 3.7% pace in Q1. The projection is driven by consumption, which is expected to grow 4.0% in Q2 (q/q, saar) after the 4.3% run–up in Q1. A small positive addition is seen from net exports.

US Income & Consumption – The income, consumption data for July will be just as important for the FOMC. A 0.3% gains is expected in income and spending, with the chain price index and the core rising 0.1%. That would leave the headline index rising at a 1.4% y/y pace, the same as in June, while the core rate would slip to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% y/y. That would be seen keeping the Fed on hold, but there’s still four months of data before the Committee has to make that decision.

US Unemployment – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 237k in the week-ended August 26. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 1,955k for the week-ended August 12.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are hanging on to modest gains, as investors hold back ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report. Hang Seng and CSI stabilized, after being knocked back by profit taking yesterday and Hong Kong is set for a third weekly gain. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index completed is posting an eight-straight month of gains. U.S. futures are also slightly higher, U.K. futures are down, however, after European stocks were knocked back from highs in the PM session yesterday but still managed to close with solid gains. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings, with the Eurozone number expected to be confirmed at 57.4, and the U.K. reading seen nudging higher to 55.0 from 55.1.

US reports: revealed a largely as-expected personal income report, though with modestly stronger than expected path for “real” consumption, a small PCE chain price undershoot, and a savings rate drop to just 3.5%, alongside a 1k initial claims uptick to a still-lean 236k that signals upside risk for190k August nonfarm payroll estimate. The Chicago PMI remained at the lofty 58.9 July reading, versus a 37-month high of 65.7 in June, and this adds to Friday’s upside risk. Next Thursday an outsized spike in claims is expected with the impact of hurricane Harvey, given shutdowns across the Houston port and petro-chemical complex that could have far-reaching effects across the transportation sector. An assumption of 39k claims rise to 275k has been taken, but with risk of a much larger gain. For prior spikes, we saw gains of 96k with Katrina, 34k with Ike, 25k with Rita, and 22k with Isaac.

Canada‘s second half GDP outlook improved following the strong Q2 and June GDP reports. Consumption revealed the anticipated strong gain in Q2 after a robust Q1. Yet the June GDP report showed another solid month of retail output (+0.8%) after the firm 0.9% May gain, defying expectations that the households would temper spending going into Q3. M&E investment did slow to a 3.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, saar) but after a massive 28.9% surge in Q1. Also, this is the first back to back increase in M&E investment since Q3 and Q4 of 2014. And exports picked-up to a 9.6% clip in Q2 after anemic growth in Q1 (+1.5%) and Q4 (+0.8%). There were no tricks or special factors in Q2, Canada’s growth was/is simply robust. The Q3 GDP estimate has been lifted to 2.5% from 2.1% and Q4 forecast to 2.3% from 2.1%. Growth is on track for a 3.1% pace in 2017, more than double the 1.5% rate in 2016 and above the BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet core inflation remains well below target and risks from abroad have perhaps intensified since July, which should keep the BoC on a gradualist rate hike path. Also, the loonie is likely a concern, as a more hawkish/aggressive path would strengthen the currency and temper the outlook for exporters.

Europe: revealed a steady unemployment rate at 9.1% in July. Jobless numbers have improved steadily and on the whole the labour market is looking better than hoped a year ago, although further structural reforms remain necessary to reduce underlying unemployment and bring countries closer together. At the moment jobless numbers still range from 2.9% in the Czech Republic to over 20% in Greece. The harmonised German rate stands at just 3.7%, while neighbouring France still reports a rate of 9.8%, which is actually up from 9.6% in the previous month. Macron’s government is set to present its plans for a reform of the labour market today, but so far the new French President has failed to live up to expectations. Eurozone Aug HICP inflation rose to 1.5% y/y, a tad higher than initially expected, but not a surprise after national data from Germany, Spain and France. The uptick in the headline rate was mainly driven by a renewed acceleration in annual energy price inflation, which jumped to 4.0% y/y from 2.2% y/y in July.

Main Macro Events Today

EU & UK PMI – The final August Manufacturing PMI is likely to be confirmed at a very strong 57.4 suggesting a fresh acceleration in activity over the summer. In UK, the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.0 outcome after 55.1 in the prior month. The manufacturing sector has been the relative bright spot in the UK economy, with businesses in the sector benefiting from the increased competitiveness the weaker pound has brought them in export markets, although the consequential cost pressures are being felt on bottom lines, while eroding real wages is curtailment on domestic market potential.

US NFP & Employment Rate – Payrolls should rise 180k after July’s 209k gain. That would bring the 2017 average to 185k, not too different than the 194k increase over the same eight months in 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, tying the lowest rate since May 2001. Earnings are expected to rise 0.2% following the 0.3% July increase. Data in line with forecasts would be consistent with solid economic growth as the second half of the year begins.

US Manufacturing ISM – The August ISM is expected to ease to 56.5 in August after sliding 1.5 points to 56.3 in July. The index is still holding firm and well above the 52.0 in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th September 2017.

FX News Today

The next four months will be busy ones for policymakers as we head into year end. It will be a busy four months for policymakers heading into year-end. The U.S. Congress returns from recess on Tuesday and will be immediately confronted with debt limit and budget issues. The devastation from Hurricane Harvey may have accelerated the U.S. fiscal agenda. Across the pond, Brexit negotiations have made “no decisive progress.” Meanwhile, the ECB should start talks on balance sheet normalization. Asian markets will remain subject to North Korea angst after last week’s missile launch over Japan, and reports that an H-bomb has been successfully loaded onto an ICBM.

United States: U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Congress is back in session starting Tuesday and has a lot on its plate. Debt limit issues and emergency hurricane aid will be first and foremost on the list. Along with fiscal issues, monetary policy will factor into trading. Fedspeak will dominate the calendar and after the disappointing August jobs report, it will be interesting to hear what policymakers have to say. This week’s slate includes several FOMC voters, including Dudley, Brainard, Kashkari, Kaplan, and Harker. While most all Committee members have supported the start of the balance sheet normalization “soon,” which likely translates into this month, outlooks on the rate stance have been more diverse. The softness in the jobs report further reduced already low risks for another rate hike at the December 12, 13 policy meeting. The upcoming September 19, 20 meeting had long been ruled out as the Fed indicated it would delay tightening when it began unwinding the balance sheet, which is expected to be announced at the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the slippage in inflation, the dovish shift from several policymakers, especially including Yellen, the rising geopolitical risks, also suggested the FOMC would remain sidelined this month.

This week’s data slate is thin with just a few reports of much interest. The August ISM services index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 1.1 points to 55.0, recovering somewhat from the 3.5 point tumble to 53.9 in July. The July trade deficit (Wednesday) is forecast widening to -$44.6 bln amid declines in imports and exports, after narrowing 5.9% to -$43.6 bln in June. Revised Q2 productivity and unit labor costs (Thursday) should show productivity bumped up to a 1.3% clip from 0.9% previously, while costs should be nudged down to a 0.2% pace from 0.6%.

Canada: The Bank of Canada’s announcement (Wednesday) is the week’s attention getter. No change is expected in the current 0.75% rate setting at Wednesday’s announcement, as the Bank takes a breather after raising rates 25 basis points in July. The accompanying announcement (there is no presser or MPR) should maintain the upbeat outlook on growth and inflation that came alongside the July rate increase.The policy rate expected to be lifted to 1.00% in October. The data calendar is busy in the holiday shortened week (Monday is a market holiday). Labor productivity (Wednesday) is expected to be flat in Q2 (q/q, sa) following the 1.4% surge in Q1 (q/q, sa), as both GDP and hours worked grew 1.1% in Q2 (q/q, sa). The trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen widening to -C$3.9 bln in July from -C$3.6 bln in June. Building permit values (Thursday) are projected to grow 2.0% m/m in July after the 2.5% gain in June. The Ivey PMI (Thursday) is expected to improve to 61.0 in August from 60.0 in July. A 30.0k rise is anticipated for August employment (Friday) after the 11.0k rise in July. The unemployment rate is expected at 6.3%, matching July. Capacity utilization (Friday) is projected to bounce to 84.5% in Q2 from 83.3% in Q1, as the rapid GDP growth in the first half lifts capacity use.

Europe: The ECB meeting (Thursday) highlights the week, while the highlight of this week’s economic calendar are the final reading of August Eurozone Services and composite PMIs (Tuesday), detailed Eurozone Q2 GDP (Thursday) and July German manufacturing orders (Tuesday). The overall growth number is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q, unchanged from Q1, with the breakdown likely to show robust domestic demand. However, there also should be signs that the strong EUR is fuelling import growth, which in turn is weighing on net exports. Survey data suggest that the recovery is strengthening and more importantly perhaps broadening in the summer quarter. And while the final services PMI is expected to confirm the drop back to 54.9 in August from July’s 55.4, the composite reading should be confirmed at 55.8, up from 55.7 in July, which together with the much stronger than expected ESI confidence readings will back the arguments for the ECB to gradually reduce the additional amount of stimulus that is still being pumped into the economy every month. German manufacturing orders data for July (Wednesday), meanwhile, will be the first real data for the third quarter and we are looking for a slowing in the monthly growth rate to 0.2% m/m from 1.0% in June, while industrial production is likely to rebound from the 1.1% drop in June and rise a stronger 0.7% m/m. Germany also has July trade data, while the Eurozone has retail sales and PPI inflation. Production data is also due from France.

UK: The calendar this week brings the August construction and services PMI surveys (Monday and Tuesday, respectively), the BRC retail sales report for the same month (Tuesday) and July production and trade data (Friday). All eyes will be on the PMIs, especially those on the dominant service sector, after Friday’s stellar manufacturing survey, which highlighting that the manufacturing sector has continued to benefit from the combo of strong global growth and a competitive exchange rate while not being perturbed by Brexit anxieties. The construction PMI expected to come in at 52.0 in the headline reading, which would be near unchanged from July’s 51.9 outcome. The services PMI has us expecting a slight ebb, to 53.5, returning to near the six-month low seen in June at 53.4, after 53.8 in the prior month. The July services PMI survey shone a light on the impact Brexit-related uncertainty is having on this sector, feedback that is not likely to have changed much this month.

New Zealand: The calendar is again sparse in terms of top tier data. Q2 manufacturing is due Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.

Japan: The August services PMI (Tuesday) is set to improve to 52.5 from 52.0. The second look at Q2 GDP (Friday) is expected to see a downgrade bump to 3.0% from the initial 4.0% reading, while the July current account surplus is seen expanding to JPY 1,800.0 bln from 934.6 bln. August bank loan figures are also due Friday.

China: The August services PMI (Tuesday) is penciled in at 51.0 from 51.5, while the August trade surplus (Friday) is forecast at $49.0 bln from $46.7 bln. August CPI and PPI are tentatively due on Saturday, with the former seen rising to 1.7% y/y from 1.4%, and the latter slipping to 5.3% y/y from 5.5%.

Australia: a busy calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the 1.50% policy setting. The data docket is headlined by Q2 GDP (Wednesday), expected to improve to a 0.5% pace (q/q, sa) from the sluggish 0.3% growth rate in Q1. The Q2 current account (Tuesday) is seen at -A$8.0 bln from the -A$3.1 bln deficit in Q1. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.3% in July after the matching 0.3% gain in June. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to an A$0.8 bln surplus in July from the A$0.9 bln surplus in June. Housing investment (Friday) is anticipated to gain 1.5% m/m in July after the 0.5% rise in June. ANZ job ads for August and the August Melbourne Institute inflation index are due Monday. Reserve Bank of Australia officials are busy this week: Governor Lowe speaks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner in Brisbane (Tuesday). The RBA’s head of Economic Analysis, Alex Heath, speaks at the Economic Society of Australia, Tasmania (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Debelle participates in a panel discussion (Friday). Governor Lowe delivers brief remarks at the Bank of China Sydney Branch’s 75th Anniversary Celebration Dinner (Friday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with stocks in Tokyo and South Korea still pressured by North Korea jitters, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to move higher. A stronger Yen added to pressure on Japanese exporters as did a weaker than anticipated Services PMI, and while war rhetoric has stepped up, global markets don’t seem in full on panic mode. The RBA left rates on hold, as expected and the ASX is moving sideways. U.K. stock futures are higher, after broad, but relatively modest losses in European markets yesterday. U.S. futures are in the red as Dow Jones and Nasdaq return from yesterday’s holiday. If U.K. stocks manage to stabilize, Gilts are likely to continue to move up from yesterday’s lows, while Eurozone markets could well outperform again, as tapering expectations are being pushed out amid rising geopolitical risks and a strong EUR. The European calendar has the final reading of the Eurozone services PMI, as well as the U.K. services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, and Swiss CPI and GDP numbers.

FX Update: The yen and franc retained a safe haven bid, although the degree of risk aversion was somewhat less than a run to the hills, and more of a weary expression of concern with regard to the North Korea’s ratcheting up of the geopolitical ante with nuclear testing. USD-JPY fell for a second day, logging a five-session low at 109.20. This extends the loss from the 110.67 peak seen before the disappointing employment report out of the U.S. last Friday. USDCHF declined to a four-session low at 0.9544, and EURCHF a five-session low, at 1.1367. EURUSD, meanwhile, settled to a narrow orbit of the 1.1900 level, holding below the1.1920 high seen yesterday. The USD index was near net steady, consolidating after dropping yesterday. AUDUSD saw some whippy price action into and after the RBA policy announcement and statement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% for the 13th straight month, as expected, while the governor’s statement was somewhat mixed in tone, but welcomed signs of slowing in the property market while jawboning about the high exchange rate (which, if sustained, would lead to slower economic growth). AUDUSD settled near 0.7950-60, down from the intraday high at 0.7985.

The UK’s August construction PMI disappointed, coming in with a headline reading of 51.1, down form 51.9 in July and the weakness level since August 2016. A sharp decline in commercial construction work drove the headline lower, which more than offset robust growth in residential building. Civil engineering activity was new stagnant. Reduced business investment and associated heightened economic uncertainty were reported by respondents to be crimping demand in the commercial sector. Job creation in the construction sector was its weakest since July 2016 (which was the month after the vote to leave the EU, which caused a temporary economic shock). The biggest take away from the survey is that new order volumes fell for a second consecutive month, as this portends sustained weakness in the construction sector. Eurozone July PPI inflation fell back to 2.0% y/y, more than anticipated and with June revised down to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y reported initially. However, preliminary August HICP data already showed a renewed uptick in energy price inflation that will likely be reflected in the PPI number for that month as well and at the same time, PMI readings suggest that the disinflationary phase in cost pressures has come to an end. So the overall tide in inflation seems to be slowly turning, even if the PPI number came in down in July.

Main Macro Events Today

EU PMI & Services – The final reading of August Eurozone Services and composite PMIs and July German manufacturing orders are out today. The final services PMI is expected to confirm the drop back to 54.9 in August from July’s 55.4, the composite reading should be confirmed at 55.8, up from 55.7 in July, which together with the much stronger than expected ESI confidence readings will back the arguments for the ECB to gradually reduce the additional amount of stimulus that is still being pumped into the economy every month.

Fedspeak – The generally dovish Governor Brainard kicks things off (07:30 ET) and discusses monetary policy and the economy at a breakfast speech before the Economic Club of New York. She’s been supportive of beginning the balance sheet unwind, but will probably counsel patience on rates. Uber-dove Kashkari attends two events, including a town hall meeting (at 12:30 ET and 13:10 ET). He’s also an advocate of patience. The hawk Kaplan speaks at the Dallas Business Club (19:00 ET).

RBA – Governor Lowe speaks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner in Brisbane.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, following on from broad losses in the U.S. and Europe outside of Germany yesterday. The DAX managed to rescue a 0.18% gain into the close but risk aversion spiked higher amid ongoing North Korea jitters and as another storms heads for the U.S. FTSE 100 futures are down and Bund futures extended gains in after hour trade yesterday, so yields, which dropped sharply yesterday are likely to remain under pressure. In the Eurozone tapering expectations are being pushed back ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Fed comments also were relatively dovish. Also today, Australian Q2 GDP came in slightly below expectations, albeit at a robust growth pace of 0.8% y/y, up from 0.3% q/q in Q1, and marking the 26th consecutive month of expansion. The Aussie dipped to a low of 0.7978 before settling around 0.7990.

Germany: Manufacturing orders unexpectedly corrected -0.7% m/m in July, June was revised down to 0.9% m/m from 1.0% m/m. Domestic orders corrected -1.6% m/m, after surging 4.8% m/m in the previous month. Foreign orders meanwhile stagnated and it is not just the strong EUR that is to blame, with orders from other Eurozone countries actually falling for a second consecutive month. Somewhat of a set back then for the German manufacturing sector, which ties in with the dip in the German manufacturing reading that month. Ifo and PMI readings for August, however, suggest a stabilization with subsequent data, still for now it will give the doves at the ECB something to argue with tomorrow.

U.S: The U.S. factory data beat estimates with July gains for nondurable shipments, inventories and orders after June boosts, alongside almost no revisions in the durables data beyond small July hikes for equipment. The figures still show a big Boeing-led June-July transportation orders gyration and a defense orders surge, with firm July ex-transportation orders and strong equipment data. More precisely, U.S. factory orders dropped 3.3% in July, reversing the 3.2% June bounce (revised from 3.0%) from -0.3% in May. Durable goods orders were left at -6.8%, as they were in the Advance July release. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft climbed 1.0% after slipping 0.1% in June (revised from unchanged). July shipments edged up 0.3% following a 0.1% prior gain in June (revised from -0.2%). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft jumped 1.2% versus 0.6% previously. Inventories were up 0.2% from 0.3% previously (revised from 0.2%). The inventory-shipment ratio slipped to 1.37 from 1.38. This is a solid report, aside from the as-expected headline decline.

FedSpeak: Yesterday, Fed Governor Brainard said that she sees raising rates more gradually than the median forecast as prudent, but is ready to start shrinking the balance sheet. She remains concerned that recent low price readings are due to depressed underlying inflation, which remains “well short” of its objective, and remains cautious on rate hikes accordingly. Dovish Brainard sees few signs of asset bubbles and feels inflation data should be closely assessed and the Fed should be confident before raising rates. On the other hand, Fed dove Kashkari said rate hikes may be doing real harm to the economy and premature rate hikes are not free in terms of inflation and job growth, as the Fed may be allowing inflation expectations to slip. He also sees a lot more slack in the labor market than the Fed appreciates.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Trade – The trade deficit expected to reveal a widening to -C$3.9 bln in July from -C$3.6 bln in June. Exports are seen rising 1.5% m/m in July after the 4.3% drop in June. Imports are expected to grow 2.0% m/m in July following the 0.3% rise in June.Labor productivity is expected to be flat in Q2 (q/q, sa) following the 1.4% surge in Q1 (q/q, sa), as both GDP and hours worked grew 1.1% in Q2 (q/q, sa).

US ISM & Trade – The August ISM services index is expected to rise 1.1 points to 55.0, recovering somewhat from the 3.5 point tumble to 53.9 in July. The July trade deficit is forecast widening to -$44.6 bln amid declines in imports and exports, after narrowing 5.9% to -$43.6 bln in June.

BOC – The Bank of Canada’s announcement is the week’s attention getter. No change in the current 0.75% rate setting is expected at today’s announcement, as the Bank takes a breather after raising rates 25 basis points in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets started to stabilise late Wednesday, and GER30 and CAC 40 managed to regain losses and close higher, Wall Street also posted gains at the close and Asian markets are currently narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up 0.15%, despite a stronger Yen. North Korea concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, but news of a U.S. deal on the debt ceiling that ensures funding amid persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing Hurricane threats has helped to calm nerves and FTSE 100 futures are up, although U.S. futures are already heading south. In the Eurozone the focus will be firmly on the ECB meeting, with a Bloomberg source story confirming yesterday that while officials will discuss policy options for 2018 today, a decision is unlikely to come before October, which is pretty much the consensus view. The Swedish Riksbank is also expected to keep key rates unchanged today. The calendar also has German production data at the start of the session, as well as the second and detailed reading of Eurozone Q2 GDP and U.K. house price data from the Halifax.

Germany: German production stagnated in July, against expectations for a rebound from the dip in June that was revised down to -1.1% m/m. Excluding contraction production declined -0.1% m/m and the three months trend rate slowed to 1.0% in July, from 1.8% in the three months to June. Coming after the weaker than expected orders number yesterday the numbers cast a shadow over the German growth projections for Q2, even if confidence data suggest a rebound with August numbers.

Canada: Strong growth prompted the BoC to increase rates another 25 basis points in September, leaving the overnight rate target at 1.00%. The back to back rate boosts in July and September cement an aggressive approach to removing policy stimulus as the expansion broadens and becomes increasingly self-sustaining. Downside risks remain, notably on the global stage, but the base-case scenario for growth and inflation points to a determined path upward for the Bank’s rate target, with further hikes seen in October and December. The BoC’s aggressive decision to hike rates 25 bps to 1.00% jolted the markets.

US Reports: a strong services ISM outcome, which bounced to 55.3 from an 11-month low of 53.9 in July but a higher 57.4 in June and 56.9 in May, versus a 16-month high of 57.6 in February. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index bounced 1.4 points to 55.3 in August after falling 3.5 points to 53.9 in July. This was the best since June’s 57.4, just off the 57.6 print from February which was the best since the 58.1 reading from October 2015. Meanwhile, U.S. Markit final August services PMI rose 1.3 points to 56.0 after edging up 0.5 points to 54.7 in July (and it compares to the 56.9 preliminary August print). It was 51.0 a year ago. This is the best reading since November 2015. Overall a solid report.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Conference – The September meeting will bring updated set of staff projections but likely no change in policy setting. After strong survey data over the summer, the short term growth forecast could well be upgraded, but with EURUSD turning out to be much stronger than assumed in the June projections the strong currency will leave its mark on the inflation forecast. Forex and bond markets remain very sensitive to tapering speculation and that will likely see the ECB moving extremely carefully going ahead especially as geopolitical risks have picked up further. Indeed, that the ECB will lay out a full schedule for the phasing out of asset purchases this year seems increasingly unlikely and while officials still start to debate changes to policy parameters at the September meeting, a decision is unlikely to come before October.

ECB Rate Decision & GDP- Prior ECB Conference Rate and GDP will be released which both expected unchanged, at 0.00% and 0.6% respectively.

US Jobless Claims- Revised Q2 productivity should post 241K from 236K last week, and unit labor costs should show productivity bumped up to a 1.3% clip from 0.9% previously, while unit Labor Costs should be nudged down to a 0.2% pace from 0.6%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 moving higher and a rally in Chinese companies helping to lift the MSCI Asia Pacific index to rise to the highest level since 2007. Japan and South Korea in particular are under pressure though, amid fears of a missile attack from North Korea on Saturday. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. European stock and bond markets were underpinned by Dovish surprisingly cautious rhetoric yesterday, but the DAX closed down from earlier highs and it remains to be seen whether the Draghi effect can shelter Eurozone stocks from fresh risk aversion. And after Italian and Portuguese 10-year yields dropped more than 10 bp yesterday, we are likely to see some stabilisation in yields as markets continue to dissect Draghi’s comments from yesterday, which highlighted growing unease with the strong EUR. The calendar trade data from Germany and the U.K. as well as production data from the U.K. and France.

FX Update: USDJPY has led broader dollar declines amid a mix of bearish drivers, including year lows in U.S. Treasury yields, risks for a further ratcheting up in North Korea tensions as the rogue nation nears nuclear ICBM capability, and the dollar-bearish narrative being generated by Hurricane Irma’s track to Florida and the south east U.S., and the fallout form Hurricane Harvey. USDJPY clocked a 10-month low of 107.63. The pair has shed 2.2% so far this week, which is the biggest movement on our currency comparison grid. Trend support comes in at 107.08-10. EURUSD, meanwhile, rallied sharply to a 33-month peak at 1.2092, since settling modestly lower into the London interbank market open. The narrow trade-weighted USD index logged a 32-month at 90.99. The dollar has also seen fresh declines against the Canadian and Australian dollars, and other commodity units, and has traded mixed-to-softer versus most emerging market currencies. More of the same looks likely into the weekend, when Irma will hit the U.S. and when there is risk of more geopolitical-rattling antics from North Korea.

Germany: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 19.6 bln in July, down from EUR 21.2 bln in the previous month, as export growth of just 0.2% m/m, was dwarfed by a 2.2% m/m rise in imports. Unadjusted data show a surplus of EUR 19.5 bln, up from EUR 19.1 bln in July last year and bringing the total of 2017 so far to EUR 141.8 bln, down from EUR 148.4 bln in the seven months to July last year. This is nominal data, but the rise in imports also shows that the stronger EUR is underpinning import demand.

EUR In Focus As ECB Prepares For October Decision On QE: The ECB left policy parameters unchanged and elevated the concerns on exchange rate developments, which were already apparent at the last meeting, but yesterday became a key issue in the introductory statement, alongside growth and inflation outlooks. Indeed, the statement as well as Pres. Draghi’s comments during the Q&A session confirmed that the exchange rate and its impact on the inflation outlook will be a big part of the discussion in October, when the ECB is likely to decide on the policy parameters for next year.The ECB said that economic expansion is solid and broad based, but stressed that the recent gains in the euro has become a source of uncertainty that requires monitoring.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Production data –The day brings the July production. July production data has us expecting 0.3% m/m growth in the industrial output figure.

RBA – RBA Gov Lowe is due to speech at the Bank of China Sydney Branch’s 75th Anniversary Celebration Dinner.

Canada employment – A 30.0k gain in total jobs during August is expected in today’sreport, which would follow the 11.0k rise in July. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.3%, matching the reading in July. The expansion in total jobs has not come alongside a run-up in earnings growth — compensation cost growth remains very tame. The BoC left some wiggle room in this week’s announcement, saying future policy decisions are not “predetermined,” being guided by incoming data. This report, and the Q2 capacity report, are the first of the incoming data. As expected results would underpin expectations for at least one more 25 bp hike this year, perhaps as soon as October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th September 2017.

FX News Today

The French term “force majeure” literally translates as “greater force,” a legal clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes. Looking ahead to the aftermath of back-to-back major hurricanes on both the Gulf and Florida coasts, there may be no escape from the human and economic disruption inflicted on those regions but also the economic wreckage that is likely to make studying the economic outlook more of a dismal science near-term. In addition, Equifax’s cyber attack and data breach of 143 mln credit monitoring customers represents another potentially chilling temporary hit to economic and financial well being. In addition, ongoing North Korea brinkmanship, recent Trumpian bipartisanship, the gold surge/dollar index collapse to post-election levels and skidding yields, all smack of a perfect storm for the Fed into the September 19-20 meeting.

United States:The U.S. economic calendar starts off fairly leisurely, building with inflation data by midweek and followed up with flurry of retail, Empire, production, inventory and U. Michigan sentiment data Friday. The CPI is expected to post respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2% for the headline and core figures for August. Retail sales are estimated edging up 0.1% overall, and up 0.5% ex-autos. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in August, but estimates ranged from 0.6% to -0.6%. NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Next are the MBA mortgage series (Wednesday), EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August (Wednesday) from -$42.9 bln. CPI will be a focal point (Thursday), forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k (Thursday) following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Canada: In Canada, this week is all about housing, with four reports distributed across the week. August housing starts (Monday), are expected to edge lower to a 220.0k pace from 222.3k in July. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for August is due Wednesday. The July new housing price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m after the matching 0.2% gain in June. Existing home sales for August are expected on Friday. The “Bank of Canada’s Re-Examining the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Towards the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal Workshop” will take place on Thursday. Looking further ahead, Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on September 18, while Governor Poloz speaks on September 27.

Europe: With the ECB decision on the future of asset purchase deferred until October, and no data releases scheduled that could change the outlook decisively, this should be a relatively quiet week, leaving markets to focus on geopolitics. Asset purchases will continue at the current pace until the end of the year and even if Draghi announces in October that purchase volumes will be scaled back from January, the fact that the ECB’s balance sheet continues to expand and that the central bank remains extremely reluctant to commit to an end data for QE means monetary policy should remain accommodative for some time to come and rate hikes are unlikely to become an issue before 2019. Data releases this week mainly focus on final inflation readings for August and are not expected to bring a major surprise, with higher oil and food prices the main reasons for the uptick in headline rates. The German HICP (Wednesday) expected to be confirmed at 1.8% y/y, the Spanish headline rate (Wednesday) to come in at 2.0% y/y and final French and Italian numbers (Thursday) to confirm preliminary readings of 1.0% y/y and 1.4% y/y respectively. The data calendar also has Eurozone industrial production data for July. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday.

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcing Thursday). No change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%.Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday). The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016. Monthly labor data covering July and August is also due (Wednesday), while official retail sales data for August is also due (Thursday), and a tepid growth of 0.2% m/m is anticipated after 0.3% in the month prior.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is again sparse in terms of top tier data. August food prices are due Wednesday, which may be of minor interest. GDP for Q2 is due on the 21st of this month. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28, in which no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.

Japan: In Japan, July machinery orders (Monday) are seen rebounding 4.0% m/m from the 1.9% drop in June. previously. This would be the first increases in three months. The July tertiary industry index (Monday) is expected up 0.2% m/m from unchanged in June. This service sector index has increased only once so far this year, climbing 1.4% in April. The September MoF business outlook survey (Wednesday) is forecast to improve to 5.0 from -2.9. August PPI (Wednesday) should heat up to 2.9% y/y from 2.6% previously. Revised July industrial production will be released on Thursday. The preliminary reading fell -0.8% versus June’s 2.2% increase.

China: China August industrial output (Thursday) is pencilled in at a 6.5% y/y clip from 6.4% after gains in the manufacturing PMIs. August fixed investment is likely to have slowed to an 8.1% y/y rate from July’s 8.3%. August retail sales should accelerate to a 10.6% y/y pace from 10.4% previously.

Australia: a thin calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k gain in August after the 14.0k rise July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.6%, matching the 5.6% in July. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks at a Workshop at King & Wood Mallesons, Sydney (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as North Korea jitters continue to ease and risk appetite returns. Hurricane Irma seems to have caused less damage than some feared and while Irma and Harvey will leave their mark on the U.S. economy, markets once again quickly settle down. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a fourth day and the Nikkei gained 1.20% so far, with U.K. and U.S. stock futures also moving higher. The buoyant mood on equity markets will keep European yields underpinned after yesterday’s broad move higher. Yields remain at relatively low levels, and mostly clearly below the average seen over the past three month. The downtrend that has been in place since the middle of July remains intact. The local calendar today is highlighted by U.K. inflation numbers ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday and Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday).

FX Update: The dollar carved out new rebound highs during the Asia session. USDJPY continued to lead the way as markets react to a sense of reduced risks stemming from North Korea and Hurricane Irma, with the former having refrained from further missile testing and the latter now having weakened to a tropical storm rating while tentatively proving to be less damaging than feared to the U.S. mainland. USDJPY logged a one-week high at 109.58, which is over two big figures up on Friday’s low at 107.31. EURUSD clocked a three-session low at 1.1945. The dollar has since come off from its highs, while USDCAD ebbed to a two-session lows just under 1.2100. With a good chunk of the pre-weekend risk-off positioning having been reversed, and with the likelihood of further sabre-rattling antics from North Korea as the rogue nation draws nearer to nuclear ICBM capability, we don’t recommend following the dollar rebound, especially in the case of USDJPY. Sterling markets will have UK inflation data today, where we expect the headline CPI rate to lift to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%.

New Zealand: The NZDUSD spiked up around 40 pips on the latest opinion poll results from NewsHub-Reid as reported by Reuters today morning, with an increase up to 0.7274. The National Party seems to be on the lead with 4% rise up to 47.3%, while Labour Party fell 1.6% down to 37.8%. These results seem to be against the recent increasing popularity we saw for Labour Party. The elections are due on September 23.

Canada: Stocks and yields surged as risk appetite came back into play. Canada underperformed in both markets, with the jump in the S&P/TSX only half that of Wall Street and most indexes in Europe. The rise in GoC yields also was smaller than in the U.S. though a little larger than in Europe. The loonie see-sawed but finished little change on the day. Housing starts were the only item on the calendar, and did not have any lasting impact on the market.

IMF’s Langarde and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met this morning in Beijing along with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and other Heads of global Organizations. As Reuters reported, Chinese Premier stated earlier that “There are increased positive factors in the global economy and signs of warming-up in some aspects. But at the same time, the fragility persists and unstable and uncertain factors are still increasing,” hence he believes that Free trade can be consider as a good way for resolving any issues raised on recovery procedure and will also help Companies transform and give variety of option to consumers as well. Meanwhile he also address in his speech, the China’s economy growth, by saying that growth seen in the 1st half will be continue.Mrs Christine Lagarde on the other side mentioned that despite the fact that the global economy is recovering, it could easily be derailed by policy uncertainty and the threat of protectionism.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation data – The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016.The Core PPI expected to pick a bit at 2.5%y/y from 2.4% y/y.

US JOLTS – NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due today and expected to fall at 104.8 from 105.2 and 5.96M from 6.16M respectively

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.