Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 13th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally lost some momentum during the Asian session. Japanese markets still moved higher, after Wall Street posted record highs, but the Hang Seng saw profit taking as the index neared a key resistance level and developers and financial stocks came under pressure. CSI 300 and ASX 200 are posting slight gains, but U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, and investors may need a catalyst before pushing things further. The European calendar has final inflation data from Germany and Spain, U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production numbers. After yesterday’s higher than expected U.K. inflation reading, U.K. wage growth in particular will be in focus as the BoE starts its 2 day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement.

FX Update: The dollar rebound rally has lost gas, with EURUSD edging out a two-day high and the buck trading softer versus sterling, the Australian dollar, among others, although USDJPY still managed to eke out a 12-day high. The dollar had been shorted into the weekend, when concerns about the impact of Hurricane Irma and fresh ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions were at an apotheosis, and driving the rebound on Monday and Tuesday had largely been an unwinding of this positioning. This now seems to have run its course. Global stock markets seem to have seen a similar dynamic. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.19s after basing yesterday at a four-session low at 1.1926. Cable, which had a fire lit beneath it by yesterday’s above-forecast UK CPI data, extended to a fresh one-year peak, this time at 1.3315. USDJPY, meanwhile, clocked a 12-day high at 110.29. EURJPY posted a 20-month high at 132.01, reflective of the under-performance in the yen..

German August HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that a renewed pick up in energy prices was largely to blame for the uptick in the headline rate, with prices for heating out rising 10.4% y/y in August, compared to just 5.4% y/y in July and 0.9% y/y in June. Petrol price inflation equally jumped higher. Energy aside annual food price inflation as well as higher prices for clothing and shoes underpinned the uptick in the HICP rate, which leaves the German number pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability. For the Eurozone as a whole though price developments are still looking more muted and with the strong EUR adding to downward pressure on prices the ECB remains very cautious as it prepares for another reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes.

Main Macro Events Today

UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Monthly labor data covering July and August is due today, where it is expected that the July ILO unemployment rate edging down to a 42-year low rate of 4.4% after 2.5% in June, though average household income growth is expected to remain relatively benign, at sub-inflation levels for 2.3% y/y in the three months to July, and at 2.1% y/y in the ex-bonus figure.

EU Industrial Data – Eurozone industrial production data for July expected at 3.4%y/y from 2.6% y/y.

US PPI and EIA Oil – Today we also have the MBA mortgage series, EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August from -$42.9 bln.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets declined amid profit taking. Markets have come quite a way up from recent lows and it seems investors need another catalyst before taking things further. The Nikkei is down -0.25%, the Hang Seng lost -0.62% so far and U.K. and U.S. futures are also in the red ahead of today’s SNB and BoE announcements. Both central banks are widely expected to keep policy on hold, but the BoE’s statement in particular will be watched carefully after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. Gilt yields moved higher yesterday, while the FTSE 100 closed in the red, despite slight gains on other European stock markets. Bund yields also moved up slightly but closed below the 0.4% mark and so far at least it seems the ECB is successful in dampening the impact of its move towards a further reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes, even though yields should have bottomed out. Central bank meetings aside, the European calendar has plenty of ECB speak as well as final inflation data from Italy and France. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance came in higher than anticipated.

China: China’s retail sales today morning, industrial production and fixed investment were disappointing in August. Retail sales slowed to a 10.1% y/y pace in August from the 10.4% rate of expansion in July. But year to date retail sales growth was 10.4% in August, matching July. Industrial production growth was 6.0% y/y in August versus the 6.4% rate in July. But year to date production dipped to 6.7% from 6.8%. Fixed investment (excluding rural households) slowed to a 7.8% y/y growth pace in August from 8.3% in July. But foreign direct investment did improve to a 9.1% y/y pace in August from 2.3% in July, after contracting 3.7% in May and falling 4.3% in April. The CSI 300 is 0.1% firmer, the Shanghai comp is also 0.1% in the green while the Shenzhen comp is up 0.2%.

Australia: The employment surged 54.2k in August following a revised 29.3k gain in July (was +27.9k). The increase was more than double expectations. The details were strong – full time jobs grew 40.1k after a revised 19.9k drop (was -20.3k) while part time jobs improved 14.1k following a 49.1k rise (was +48.2k). The unemployment rate was 5.6% in August, matching the rate in July. The participation rate rose to 65.3% in August from 65.1%. AUDUSD jumped to 0.8015 from 0.7975 on the report, and has edged slightly lower to 0.8006.

US reports: a 0.2% August U.S. PPI headline with a 0.1% core price increase undershot estimates thanks to a lean 0.1% service price increase, with a flat trade service figure and a 0.3% gain for transportation and warehousing services. We saw the largely expected figure for goods prices, with a 3.3% energy price rise and a 1.3% food price drop that left a 0.5% rise for the goods component overall. It is tentatively expected a hurricane-led 0.5% PPI rise in September with a 0.2% core price increase thanks to a pop in gasoline prices and an assumed rise in service prices. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.6%, after rising to 2.4% in August from 1.9% in July, while the y/y core PPI rises to 2.1% from 2.0% in August and 1.8% in July. Oil prices have largely moved sideways in 2017, though we’ve also seen a drop in the dollar and a stronger global economy that has boosted commodity prices, after the opposite 2016 pattern of dollar and oil price gains, but global growth weakness. Upward 2017 price pressure has been limited by the absence of an inventory recovery despite a petro-rebound that is trimming excess capacity.

Main Macro Events Today

SNB announcement– The Swiss central bank will publish the latest quarterly policy review today and is widely expected to keep key policy settings unchanged. Officials have welcomed reduced pressure on the CHF, but still see volatility in forex markets and with the ECB inching only very gradually towards the end of QE and geopolitical risks on the rise again, the SNB is firmly on hold. as it watches developments in the Eurozone and Brexit negotiations.

BOE announcement – September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting is due today, in which no change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%. Not much change is anticipated in the tone of the guidance from that delivered in August, when the central bank was able to expand its view in its quarterly inflation report, which brought downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. The market consensus is for the BoE to refrain from change policy settings until 2019.

US CPI & Unemployment Claims – CPI will be a focal point today, forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July, while core should remain subdued at 0.1%; on a core y/y basis CPI should remain in the 1.7% area, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed. The Nikkei is up 0.58%, as Japanese markets shrugged of yet another missile test conducted by North Korea. Hang Seng and CSI 300 is moving sideways and the ASX is currently down -0.71%. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. The surge higher in Sterling following yesterday’s BoE warning that a rate hike may be necessary in coming months, already saw the UK100 heading south yesterday and the index closed down -1.14% on Thursday, with the dip in futures suggesting further losses today. Gilts jumped 8.5 bp yesterday and may still have a way to go, and while Bunds are likely to outperform again, peripherals may feel the pressure from a fresh wave of geopolitical tensions. Today’s local calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade numbers.

US reports: revealed big Harvey-boosts for August CPI and weekly initial claims, with Irma-boosts still in the pipeline. For CPI, we saw big gains of 0.402% for the headline and 0.248% for the core, with hurricane-boosts via a 2.8% energy price rise and a 4.4% spike for lodging away from home, with additional firmness across the major components. For claims, we saw a 14k drop to a lofty 284k, after a 62k Harvey-surge to 298k at the start of the month that included a 52k surge in Texas. It is expected that Irma will lift next week’s claims by 26k to 310k, as a Florida surge is partly offset by a Texas drop-back. Since Irma struck during the BLS survey week, a 100k hurricane hit to the September nonfarm payroll figure is anticipated that leaves a 90k rise.

UK: The pound has seen little bounce following the spike-rally in the wake of the BoE’s laying of the groundwork for a rate hike, the first time the Old Lady has done this in a decade. The last time the BoE hike rates was in July 2007, when it lifted the repo to 5.75% from 5.50%. Now, following a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis and a status-quo disrupting vote to leave the EU, the BoE is at long last set pull on the rate hike lever again, in this case to reverse last August’s so-called post-Brexit vote “emergency” cut by lifting the repo rate to 0.50%. Up until last week, the consensus had been for the BoE to remain on hold through to 2019. The pound is expected to will remain bid for now, given this backdrop,however there is a general concern given the risk of bad news from the Brexit front. Former BoE governor, Mervyn King, who was a Brexit advocate, warned that the UK was likely to fall out of the EU without a new trading deal in place.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – Retail sales are pegged to rise 0.1% headline in August vs 0.6% in July, though ex-autos may increase 0.5% indeed, there is some downside risk, as Harvey has already shown up in lower auto sales. The Empire State index is expected to dive to 18.2 in September from 25.2 in August,

US Industrial Production & UoM Sentiment – The Industrial Production may sink 0.1% in August; capacity use may accordingly dip to 76.8% from 76.7%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may bounce to 95.1 in September vs 96.8 in August and business inventories are seen rising 0.2% in July vs 0.5%.

MPC Vlieghe Speech – MPC Member Vlieghe is due to speak about UK Economy and monetary Policy at the Society of Business Economists’ Annual Conference, in London, at 8:50 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2017.

FX News Today

Signs of rising price pressures, including a resurgence in oil, are bringing central banks back into play, and the markets are responding. The pound was given extra rocket by a BoE dove Vlieghe who turned hawkish, saying that a hike could come “as early as in the coming months.” This was notable as Vlieghe has been one of the most dovish members on the policy committee (the only dissenter in favor of cutting rates in July 2016, before the Brexit vote). The markets are now discounting a rate hike at the November MPC meeting. Meanwhile, the FOMC meets this week and all eyes will be on the dot-plot and whether one more tightening remains in the cards for this year. Other monetary policy meetings include the BoJ, the Philippines BSP, the Taiwan CBC, and Bank Indonesia. Meanwhile the German General Elections are on the doorstep next weekend.

United States: The U.S. focus will be firmly on the FOMC this week (Tuesday, Wednesday), and particularly QT and the dot plot. Despite the various risk events of late, the Fed is widely expected to announce the start of the unwind of the balance sheet, which will be very gradual in nature as per the path it laid out in June. Of more importance will be the dot-plot forecasts and what they suggests about rate moves this year and through 2019. Data is relatively light this week, with a concentration on housing numbers, with manufacturing and trade price reports as well. However, hurricane disruptions will limit their usefulness.August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Existing home sales for August (Wednesday) should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory. The September NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Monday) should be unchanged. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for September (Friday) will be impacted. The Philly Fed manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to be little changed at 18.0 in September.

Canada: Canada’s calendar features key economic data releases this week that will fine tune BoC expectations for the October 25 meeting. The CPI (Friday) is expected to expand 0.2% in August (m/m, nsa) . Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.3% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June. Manufacturing sales (Tuesday) are expected to fall 1.5% in July (m/m, sa) after the 1.8% drop in June. A 4.9% plunge in export values in July after the 5.0% drop in June drives our projection for July manufacturing shipments. Wholesale sales (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% drop in June. The international securities transactions report for July is due Monday. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on Monday titled “How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times”. His speech will be available at 14:00 ET.

Europe: Central banks and geopolitical risks continue to take center stage. Comments from ECB speakers this week, including Draghi, as well as the ECB’s latest economic bulletin, are likely to confirm that the central bank is heading for another QE extension but with reduced monthly purchase volumes. All the while, the German general election on September 24 is coming into view. Polls are giving Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU party a very large lead, but not enough votes for an absolute majority. Hence, Germany is almost certainly headed for a yet another Merkel-led coalition government, and most likely once again with the socialist SPD as the junior partner. The first round of confidence surveys for September in the form of ZEW and PMI readings will be important for the overall outlook. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment index (Tuesday) is seen rising to 12.0 from August’s 10.0 print. Meanwhile, a moderation in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 from the prior 57.4 is expected, while the services reading is expected to rise slightly to 54.9 from 54.7 in August. The data calendar also has German producer price inflation for July, the final reading of French Q2 GDP and Eurozone current account and BoP data for July.

UK: Sterling markets will continue to digest the BoE’s unexpectedly hawkish statement of last Thursday, which laid the groundwork for a rate hike before year-end. A 25 bp rate hike at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting is widely expected, which would reverse the “emergency” post-Brexit vote rate cut from August 2016. November is the logical choice for what would be the first tightening by the BoE since 2007, since this is the month that the next quarterly edition of the inflation report is due. The October EU Summit will have come and gone by then, and, hopefully, the Brexit process will be clearer. The calendar this week is fairly quiet. September data will start to make an appearance, including the Rightmove house price index (Monday) and the CBI industrial trends survey (Friday). While there is a chance for a post-summer activity in the housing market, hence the house price data expected to show fresh signs of slowing, a process which has been driven in recent months by a drop off in demand with average household finances having been pressured by the rise in inflation and weak pay awards. The CBI survey, meanwhile, should reaffirm that the production sector of the economy remains in relatively rude health, aided by exchange rate competitiveness and strong global growth. August retail sales data are also due (Wednesday), where a modest 0.2% m/m lift is anticipated.

New Zealand: has Q2 GDP (Thursday), which expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). The current account is expected to shift to a -NZ$100 mln deficit from the NZ$244 mln surplus in Q1. The general election will take place on Saturday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change is expecred to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end. Grant Spencer takes over as acting governor on September 27 for a six month stint. Governor Wheeler is retiring as his term ends. A permanent successor will be appointed in 2018.

Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day. The BoJ begins its 2-day policy meeting (Wednesday) with the announcement (Thursday). No changes are expected to the Bank’s ultra-loose policy, given the cool inflation backdrop. The August trade report (Wednesday) should see a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 50.0 bln from 421.7 bln previously. The July all-industry index (Thursday) should fall 0.2% m/m versus the prior 0.4% increase..

Australia: The minutes to the September meeting are due Tuesday. Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis speaks at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) conference, Sydney (Wednesday). Governor Lowe discusses “The Next Chapter” at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia Business Briefing, Perth (Thursday). The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) highlights a sparse calendar of economic data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Japanese markets got a boost by speculation of a snap election, after Abe confirmed reports that he is considering a vote ahead of schedule. Catch up trade after yesterday’s holiday also underpinned a nearly 2% rise in the Nikkei. Elsewhere markets are marginally in the red as markets turn cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed. returned from yesterday’s holiday. The calendar gets more interesting today with the release of German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to show a slight improvement in the expectations reading to 12.0 from 10.0 in the previous month.

BoE Governor Carney walked back hawkish guidance, saying that “any prospective increases in Bank Rate would be expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, and be consistent with monetary policy continuing to provide substantial support to the economy.” He also stressed that there “remain considerable risks to the UK outlook, which include the response of households, businesses, and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal.” More specifically on Brexit, Carney argued that the “de-integration effects” of Brexit can be expected to be “inflationary.” Carney is evidently displeased with the markets reaction to the BoE’s statement last week, where markets seemed to run with the hawkish soundbites while ignoring the dovish soundbites. The pound, on the ebb after the outsized gains of last Thursday and Friday, declined further as markets responded to Carney’s remarks. Prospects for a “dovish tightening” should keep a lid on the pound’s upside potential.

BOC Gov Council Member Lane held out a gradualist fig leaf to the market, or at least that is how his speech and comments were interpreted by GoCs and the loonie, as yields dropped and USD-CAD jumped to two-week high. The Deputy Governor, in a Q&A with the audience following his speech, said the BoC will take the Canadian Dollar into account “strongly,” according to Bloomberg news. The Bank does not know how the economy will react to higher rates. The policy rate is still low relative to neutral levels, and rates below neutral are still appropriate given risks. The current level of interest rates are “exceptional.” Unlike the Fed, BoC speakers have spoken with one voice, so Lane’s outing is interesting following last week’s defense of the Bank’s communication strategy between July and September and Wilkins’ reminder that all meetings are “live.” Lane himself reiterated that all meetings are live. There is plenty here to suggest they will take a breather next month and perhaps shift to a more gradualist strategy. That being said, more firm data would tip the balance in favour of a rate hike, given that each announcement is “live.” Note that Poloz speaks on September 27th, and he will take questions from the press. Today’s speech does significantly trim the odds for a move next month however.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – A slight improvement in the expectations reading to 12.5 from 10.0 in the previous monthis anticipated, indicating that optimists still outnumber pessimists and that confidence stabilised slightly in line with stocks, after being hit by geopolitical risks in the previous survey round. Even if the ZEW comes in much weaker than anticipated, it would only support the arguments of the doves at the ECB, who are reluctant to commit to an end date for QE just yet, while a stronger than expected number is unlikely to prompt a majority for Weidmann’s push to end QE.

US Housing Stats – August housing starts are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Risk is to the downside due to disruptions from Harvey.

Canada Manufacturing – Manufacturing shipments values, are expected to reveal a 1.5% m/m drop in July after the 1.8% decline in June. This projection is supported by a tremendous 4.9% plunge in export values during July. Prices played a role however, with the IPPI down 1.5% (m/m, nsa). Hence the decline in the manufacturing shipment volume measure may be less pronounced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed and fluctuating at high levels, as trading volumes are low and investors await the Fed decision The MSCI Asia Pacific index has gained around 22% this year, despite escalating tensions with North Korea. FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, while U.S. futures are in the red, ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind, or QT (quantitative tightening), while leaving its rate posture unchanged. The BoJ will announce its decision tomorrow, and central banks and geopolitics remain driving factor for markets. Reports that there is still no broad majority at the ECB for a commitment to an end date for QE saw yields correcting again in the Eurozone yesterday, while the BoE’s flagging of the need for a rate hike in coming months has kept Gilt yields underpinned. Today’ calendar includes U.K. retail sales, but is unlikely to take the focus away from the Fed.

German producer price inflation higher than expected. The annual rate rose to 2.6% y/y in August, from 2.2% y/y in the previous month. A renewed uptick in energy prices was the main factor and energy prices rose 0.4% m/m, fuel prices 0.9% m/m and annual rates rose to 2.7 %y/y and 3.9% y/y respectively. Annual food price inflation fell back slightly, but at 5.3% y/y remains very higher and PPI excluding energy rose to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y. Overall PPI remains below the highs seen earlier in the year, but seems to have bottomed out and the data will back the arguments of the hawks at the ECB, who are fighting for the end of additional asset purchases

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for both housing starts and trade prices in August, alongside a wider than expected Q2 current account deficit. For starts, we saw August declines of 0.8% for starts and a big 10.2% for completions, but we also saw a 5.7% pop for permits, a strong trajectory for starts under construction, and upward starts revisions that left a solid Q3 path. For trade prices, we saw big 0.6% August headline import and export price increases led by oil imports and nonagricultural exports with a likely Harvey-boost, before an assumed September lift from Irma. The U.S. current account gap widened to $123.1 bln from $113.5 (was $116.8) bln in Q1 thanks to a surge in the deficit on secondary income.

Canada’s manufacturing drop yesterday is suggestive of tame July GDP growth, at best. Factory shipment volumes fell 1.4% in June (values dropped 2.6%). We have penciled in a 0.1% rise for July GDP estimate, which would follow the 0.3% gain in June. A 0.5% decline in wholesale shipment volumes is projected, while retail sales volumes are seen improving 0.3%. Housing starts grew 4.5% to a 222.0k pace in July from 212.5k in June. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values fell 3.7% m/m in July after plummeting 11.3% m/m in June. However, the manufacturing report’s petro and coal shipments measure did edge up 0.6% in value after the hefty 7.0% drop in June. A 0.1% rise in July GDP would leave the measures on track for a 2.5% pace in Q3 (q/q, saar) which we expect for the separate quarterly measures. The BoC’s base-case estimates projected a slowing in GDP growth during the second half of this year.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – August retail sales data are due today, where expected a modest 0.2% m/m lift.

FOMC Rate Decision and Conference – FOMC began its 2-day meeting and is widely expected to announce the start of the balance sheet unwind, or QT (quantitative tightening), while leaving its rate posture unchanged. Remember this is a quarterly meeting that includes the release of economic/price forecasts (SEP – Summary of Economic Projections) and a Yellen press conference. Of importance to the rate outlook is the dot-plot and the nuances in the Fed chair’s remarks. The Committee was still expecting a total of three rate hikes this year at the June 13, 14 meeting, and that’s expected to be the case this time too, keeping the door open for a tightening at the December 12, 13 meeting. It is also expected that the FOMC will maintain the consensus view of three hikes in 2018. While the Fed believes there should be little market reaction to the gradual and well telegraphed unwinding of the balance sheet, it should be “like watching paint dry,” said Yellen in June, officials may be too complacent in their overall assessment on the market responses to policy actions.

US Existing Home Sales – Existing home sales for August should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory.

NZD GDP – The Q2 GDP, expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed. The Fed confirmed the launch of QT and kept rates unchanged, but left the rate hike for December on the table, along with consensus for three more hikes next year. The BoJ meanwhile left policy on hold, as expected, but one dissenter signalled that further easing may be necessary to bring inflation back to target. The Nikkei is up 0.16%, after a narrowly mixed close on Wall Street, the Hang Seng managed to recover some of its early losses, but at 5:37GMT was down -0.07% and the ASX underperformed with a -0.84% loss. FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, U.S. futures marginally in the red and it seems investors are still digesting central bank decisions and are reluctant to push world markets even higher for now. Bund futures dropped sharply in after hour trade on the Fed announcement and Bund yields, which closed down yesterday, are likely to push higher in opening trade, resuming the new uptrend, as the ECB is heading for an announcement on QE reductions. The local calendar has U.K. public finance data as well as the ECB’s latest economic report. ECB’s Draghi, Praet and Smets are all set to speak.

New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.8% in Q2 (q/q, sa) following an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in Q1 (was +0.5%). The increase in Q2 matched expectations. But GDP grew at a 2.5% y/y pace in Q2, only matching the growth rate in Q1 and falling short of the 2.6% to 3.5% annual rates seen in 2016. Indeed, growth is on track to slow to a 2.5% pace for all of 2017 from the 3.6% pace in 2016. Of course, the economy continues to grow, supported by low interest rates. Yet inflation growth remains in the target range (CPI slowed to 1.7% y/y from 2.2%) and the RBNZ expects a decline in coming quarters as the effects of higher food and fuel prices dissipate.

FOMC: announced balance sheet runoff in October and left rates unchanged, as expected. The vote was 9-0. The FOMC also left a rate hike on the table for December, with 12 of 16 FOMC members projecting such. Also, 11 of 16 see at least three hikes next year. The hurricanes are not expected to have much impact on the medium term. The FOMC did lower the long run outlook on rates to 2.8% from 3.0%. The median funds rate for 2018 is at 2.1%, the same as in June’s outlook, though the 2019 median slipped to 2.7% from 2.9%, suggesting a slower path of tightening. The policy statement the Fed noted the labor market continued to strengthen while economic activity had been rising moderately. Fed Chair Yellen reiterated the FOMC statement noting the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming years. Meanwhile, the labor market remains healthy and payroll gains are well above the rate needed to absorb entrants. Inflation has continued to run below the 2% goal, but the low rate doesn’t reflect broad economic conditions. In Q&A she noted that FOMC has hiked rates this year on the belief the economy is performing well. She added the balance sheet runoff has begun too, as such stimulus is no longer needed to such an extent. The improvement in the labor market has been “substantial” and “vast,” she stressed and including a number of data points supporting her case, including jobs, the unemployment rate, the quit rate, etc. The Fed also sees sufficient strength in spending and growth to keep the job market strong over the medium term, hence the rate hikes are “well justified.” The Fed is committed to the 2% inflation goal, and they will balance the risks of potentially tightening too much and undermining the inflation objective, or not tightening enough and letting inflation get out of control. She finished her presser with these comments.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Public Borrowing – UK expected to post a deficit on Public Sector Net borrowing at 6.5B from the surplus seen last month at -0.8B.

CAD Wholesale Sales – Wholesale sales are expected to fall 1.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% drop in June.

US Jobless Claims & Philly – The Philly Fed manufacturing index is expected to be little changed at 18.0 in September. The index has fallen in the last three months after surging 16.8 points to 38.8 in May. Meanwhile Jobless Claims should post a rise of 16K up to 300K for last week.

ECB – ECB President Draghi is due to speak at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt at 13:30 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: North Korea tensions are once again leaving their mark on markets, as a stronger Yen weighed on the Nikkei. Hang Seng and ASX 300 were also under pressure, as S&P cut the Hong Kong’s sovereign rating a day after downgrading China. Australian ASX200 meanwhile managed to rebound from a seven months low and is outperforming today after three straight days of losses. U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are also heading south as investors eye geopolitical risks and further clues from Fed speakers. Today’s European calendar has preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone, which we expect to remain broadly stable at high levels. Final French Q2 GDP numbers are also not expected to bring a major surprise. The U.K. CBI industrial trends survey is also due. In Germany Sunday’s election is casting its shadow, although with everyone expecting Merkel to remain in office it is only her choice of coalition partner and the result for the right wing AFD that is creating excitement in what has been dubbed a very boring election campaign.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer, correcting some following the sharp gains seen in the wake of the Fed’s hawkish turn on Wednesday. EURUSD nudged above 1.1960, up over a big figure form the post-Fed low, and USD-JPY tipped to a low of 111.65, correcting after rallying in eight of the previous nine sessions and putting distance in from yesterday’s two-month peak at 112.71. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also posted losses. While the BoJ’s reaffirmation at its meeting this week of its commitment to yield curve control and ultra-accommodative monetary policy in general may be an endorsement for yen bears, North Korea’s advance to becoming a nuclear power remains a wildcard risk for yen bears, as the Japanese currency will typically rally amid any heightening in geopolitical tensions. This week’s trading of verbal barbs between Trump and Kim won’t have done unnoticed by market participants.

Trump: New executive orders on N. Korea that target individuals and companies who trade with the rogue nation. He confirmed that the PBoC has ordered Chinese banks to cease business with the region, while the effort will also target N. Korea’s shipping and trade networks. The leaders of Japan and S. Korea backed the tighter stranglehold, and they plan to discuss further means to halt N. Korea’s ability to produce a nuclear arsenal. Though Trump remained open to further dialogue with N. Korea, it’s not clear that this will reduce tensions in the meantime as prior UN actions prompted further missile salvos over Japan.

US Reports Yesterday: Revealed a robust 23.8 September Philly Fed figure that exhibited the same hurricane updraft seen in last Friday’s Empire State report, and we now expect the average of the producer sentiment surveys to reclaim the 57 cycle-high in September that was seen in February and March, versus still-lofty 55-56 figures over the interim. We also saw a surprising 23k drop in initial claims to a still-elevated 259k in the week of Irma, which was also the BLS survey week, though the mass-displacement of individuals and loss of electrical power may have delayed applications for claims. Claims are averaging 274k thus far in September and we expect a 272k average when the month is over, versus an August average of 246k in August. We expect a 90k September nonfarm payroll rise that assumes a 100k Irma hit. We also saw a 0.4% August rise in leading indicators that left a 12-month string of gains.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – Consensus is for an unchanged composite PMI reading for September, with an expected correction in the manufacturing PMI likely to be compensated for by a slight rise in the services sector reading. German ZEW investor confidence already improved again in September, while today’s preliminary consumer confidence number rose to the highest reading since 2001.

CAD CPI – Expected to grow 0.2% in August relative to July, leaving a pick-up in the annual growth rate to 1.6% in July from 1.2% in July and the year low 1.0% pace in June. Gasoline prices snapped higher in August, which drives our projection. The annual growth rates for the core measures were either steady or slightly firmer in July. CPI-trim growth was 1.3% y/y in July from 1.2% in June, CPI-common was 1.4% from 1.4% and CPI-median was 1.7% from 1.6%. The average of the three core measures ticked higher to 1.5% y/y from the 1.4% in April, May and June.

May and Draghi Speeches – UK PM May is speaking in Florence and rumours are swirling of a speech to cement her authority at home and with her own party as well as an olive branch to the EU to finally kick start the Brexit negotiations – watch sterling to day and for follow through on Monday. Draghi has a speech earlier in Dublin and is likely to avoid direct comments on monetary policy, but always one to watch.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th September 2017.

FX News Today

Well, the Fed finally pulled the trigger last week, not on another rate hike but rather the October launch date for quantitative tightening, and the sky didn’t fall. The message remained clear, however, that the majority at the Fed expect to hike once more this year and again three times in 2018 until they reach a lower “new normalization” level on the Fed funds target in 2.5-3.0% area. Europe heats up again, with German coalition talks ahead in the wake of Sunday’s national election and a fresh round of Brexit talks on tap after UK PM May’s keynote speech last week.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar is a healthy one too heading into quarter-end, starting with the Chicago Fed National Activity index (Monday). The Case-Shiller home price index (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 0.7% in July. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) is set to slip to 122.0 in September and new home sales (Tuesday) may drop 1.9% to a 560k pace in August. The MBA mortgage application report is due (Wednesday).The distorting effects from the hurricanes have left many of the estimates anyone’s guess, though there won’t be much impact on the third and final print for Q2 GDP (Thursday). Advanced indicators goods trade deficit (Thursday) is expected to widen to -$65.1 bln vs -$63.9 bln, while initial jobless claims may or may not settle 1k higher at 260k after a relatively smooth ride last week despite the hurricane impact the week prior. Personal income and spending are expected to have inched up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively in August (Friday), while consumer confidence measures are expected to dip, but from high levels. Core PCE prices are seen up 0.2%. September Chicago PMI and final Michigan sentiment are also on tap to round out the week.

Fedspeak: is heavy this week, with 12 Committee members scheduled. The commentary will give the markets a notion of current thinking in the wake of the FOMC. Monday brings NY’s Dudley, Chicago’s Evans, and Minneapolis’ Kashkari. Evans’ topic is monetary policy. Tuesday has Fed Chair Yellen’s keynote speech at the NABE conference. Cleveland Fed’s Mester also moderates a session at NABE. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic speaks at the Atlanta Press Club. St Louis Fed’s Bullard discusses monetary policy and the economy Wednesday, while Philly Fed’s Rosengren also speaks on policy. Thursday brings KC’s George on monetary policy and the economy. Fed VC Fischer will be at a conference in London, but he is retiring next month. Note that this year’s FOMC voters include Dudley, Evans, Kaplan, and Kashkari, while 2018 voters include Dudley, Bostic, Mester, and Williams.

Canada: A speech by Governor Poloz highlights this week’s calendar. He appears Wednesday at the St. John’s Board of Trade, with the text of his prepared speech available at 11:45 ET. The appearance follows Deputy Governor Lane’s speech last week, who said that the Bank is paying close attention to the impact of the stronger Canadian dollar and that possible changes to NAFTA are a key source of uncertainty for Canada’s outlook.As for the data, July GDP will be the focus on the rather lean docket, which expected ta a 0.1% gain in July GDP. The industrial product price index (IPPI) is expected to expand 0.5% in August. Another sizable gain for the loonie will hold back the IPPI, but higher gasoline and commodity prices are expected to ultimately drive the index higher relative to July. Average weekly earnings for July are due Thursday. The CFIB’s Business Barometer index of small and medium sized business sentiment for September is also due Thursday.

Europe: It’s an action packed week, with German coalition talks following Sunday’s election, a new round of Brexit talks as well as plenty of key data releases and ECBspeakers, including Draghi’s address to lawmakers on Monday. Draghi’s address to lawmakers (Monday) is likely to repeat that the Eurozone economy is recovering, but also that this still hinges on ongoing monetary accommodation, thus justifying the likely extension of QE into 2018, even if monthly purchase levels are expected to be scaled back. Data releases include preliminary inflation data for September and the last set of confidence indicators in the form of Ifo and ESI readings, all of which should back the ECB’s benign central scenario. The data week starts with the German Ifo business climate (Monday), and Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence (Thursday). Markit said that PMI numbers for Q3 point to a quarterly growth rate of 0.7% q/q, which would be a further strengthening from Q2, but even if that proves a tad too optimistic, the recovery clearly continues to broaden across sectors and countries, which is a very good sign and is also underpinning ongoing improvement on labor markets. German sa jobless numbers for August are seen down which would leave the jobless rate at a low 5.7%. Conditions are also improving elsewhere even if more structural reforms are needed to bring especially youth unemployment down further.Indeed, the remaining slack in the labor market is one reason that wage growth has so far failed to pick up decisively and inflation remains modest.

UK: Sterling markets have settled on the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting as being the venue that the BoE will make its first rate hike in over 10 years. Meanwhile, the fourth round of Brexit negotiations will start on Monday. Prime Minister May rejected the Norwegian and Canadian models as being unsatisfactory for the UK while admitting that she is not pretending that you can have all the advantages of the single market with none of the disadvantages. Sterling took a knock on this news as it affirms that the government is aiming for a “hard exit” from the EU. May also announced that she wants a two-year “implementation period,” beyond Brexit day in March 2019, which is something that the EU is widely seen as accepting. The calendar this week brings the September CBI distributive sales survey (Wednesday), the September Gfk consumer confidence survey (Thursday), the third estimate for Q2 GDP, along with the Q2 current account report and August BoE lending data (all due on Friday).

New Zealand: has Q2 GDP (Thursday), which expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). The current account is expected to shift to a -NZ$100 mln deficit from the NZ$244 mln surplus in Q1. The general election will take place on Saturday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change is expecred to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end. Grant Spencer takes over as acting governor on September 27 for a six month stint. Governor Wheeler is retiring as his term ends. A permanent successor will be appointed in 2018.

Japan: In Japan, Tuesday brings August services PPI, which is forecast slowing modestly to 0.5% y/y from 0.6% previously. The remainder of releases come on Friday, and begin with August national CPI, which is penciled in at up 0.6% y/y from 0.4% overall, and up 0.7% y/y from 0.5% on a core basis. However, Tokyo overall September CPI is seen slipping to 0.4% y/y from 0.5%, with core reading at 0.5% from 0.4%. August unemployment is estimated at an unchanged 2.8%. August industrial production is predicted to have risen 1.5% y/y from -0.8% in July. August retail sales can be expected to rebound 0.3% from -0.2% for large retailers, and a 2.5% y/y increase, from 1.8% overall. August housing starts are forecast at a -1.0% y/y clip, a slower pace of decline versus the -2.3% decline previously. August construction orders are also due.

China: In China, September Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) should slip to 51.5 from 51.6. The official CFLP manufacturing PMI is scheduled for a Saturday, release, and is expected at 51.6 from 51.7.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor (Financial Stability) Michele Bullock participates in a panel (Tuesday). Deputy Governor Debelle delivers a speech (Thursday) at the Bank of England conference in London. The data slate is lean, with August private sector credit due Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are slightly lower after fresh pressure on tech stocks dragged down Wall Street and with investors watching North Korea tensions, after top North Korea diplomat said a Trump tweet over the weekend was a “declaration of war”. USDJPY fell to 111.73 from 112.25 , while Gold spiked up about $14/ounce to $1,309.86, following comments from North Korea’s foreign minister. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and ongoing risk aversion should keep bonds underpinned. Germany remains focused on the fallout from the election as coalition talks come into focus. Brexit talks restarted yesterday, but May’s speech last week doesn’t seem to have brought the hoped-for breakthrough in the talks. Today’s calendar has French business confidence as well as U.K. mortgage approvals, and more ECB speakers ahead of a keynote speech from Fed’s Yellen. Germany sells 2-year Schatz notes and Italy also bonds.

ECB’s Draghi: “We will decide later this year on a re-calibration of our instruments that maintains the degree of monetary support that the euro area economy still needs”. “We are becoming more confident that inflation will eventual head to levels in line with our inflation aim, but also know that a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for the upward inflation path to materialize”. “we still see some uncertainties with respect to the medium-term inflation outlook”. “Recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring.”

FED: Fed’s Evans remains concerned over still low inflation expectations in his comments on monetary policy and the economy. This FOMC voter has been worried in recent months over the slowing in price pressures. He needs to see clearer signs of higher inflation before boosting rates again. He is not convinced weak inflation is such a transitory event, in comments to reporters. He added inflation expectations are not consistent with the Fed’s 2% goal, while he is confident that the current policy stance is appropriate. NY Fed’s Dudley spoke as well yesterday. Fed Dudley sees continued gradual policy tightening and temporary factors depressing inflation “fading.” The dovish voter expects the 2% inflation target to be reached in the medium-term and views economic fundamentals as “generally quite favorable,” though the hurricane effects should be short-lived and boost growth over time. Dudley expects the weaker dollar and overseas growth to boost the trade sector, supporting growth and wage gains.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB – ECB’s Praet speaking in “ Good Pension Design” lecture at 2nd ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt

FOMC – Cleveland Fed’s Mester moderates a session at NABE today, while Fed’s Brainard is due to give opening remarks at the Fed Conference in Washington. Fed Chair Yellen’s Is due to give a speech at the NABE conference at 19:45 GMT.

US Home Sales & Consumer Confidence – The Case-Shiller home price index is forecast to rise 0.1% in July. Consumer confidence is set to slip to 120.0 in September vs 122.9. And new home sales may drop 1.9% to a 588k pace in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 outperforming amid a rebound in tech stocks. Nikkei and ASX are in the red, the former dragged down by companies trading ex-dividend. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher, pointing to early gains on European stock markets, which are likely to keep upward pressure on Bund yields also as the most recent dip in the EUR won’t prevent the ECB from reigning in asset purchase volumes from next year. Today’s calendar has Eurozone M3 and credit growth numbers, as well as Italian confidence data and the U.K. CBI retailing survey. In Germany the focus will remain on the fallout from the election as Merkel faces tough coalition talks.

US reports: U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 119.8 from 120.4 (122.9) in August but a similar 120.0 in July, as the measure takes a likely hurricane hit. All the confidence surveys have strengthened sharply in 2017 despite some moderation from Q1 peaks, and what is now a small September setback after an August updraft. Consumer confidence remains close to the 16-year high of 124.9 in March. Confidence, producer sentiment and small business optimism have climbed since October of 2016 in the face of a factory rebound that is trimming excess capacity, equity and home price gains, and fiscal policy relief. The rise has defied restraint in GDP growth from ongoing inventory weakness. The 3.4% August U.S. new home sales drop to an expected 560k rate followed net downward revisions to leave a slightly weaker than expected report. The August new home sales drop included a 4.7% decline in the south, and Harvey and Irma will likely depress sales through September before a Q4 bounce.

Fed Chair Yellen: said the Fed should be “wary of moving too gradually,” in her written remarks on Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy before the NABE annual conference. So far the gradual approach has been appropriate due to the subdued pace of inflation, but low prices likely reflect factors that should fade. Meanwhile, she added that it is “imprudent” to keep policy on hold until inflation hits the 2% target. There are risks of overheating without modest rate hikes over time. Persistent easy policy can hurt financial stability. There was the usual caveat, however, that persistently low inflation could lead to a slower pace of tightenings. Nevertheless, the gist of her comments, and the leanings of the FOMC back at the September 19, 20 meeting, pretty much confirm a December tightening, unless there is some development between now and then to take if off the table. She also noted that the Fed’s inflation goal is symmetric and that the 2% level is not a ceiling. It would not be a tragedy to see inflation overshoot, she said.

Main Macro Events Today

US Goods & Home Sales – ECB’s Praet speaking in “ Good Pension Design” lecture at 2nd ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt

BOC– Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks today. His speech follows Deputy Governor Lane’s speech last week, who perhaps signalled a more gradualist approach to rate hikes ahead. Lane said the Bank is paying close attention to the impact of the stronger Canadian dollar and that possible changes to NAFTA are a key source of uncertainty for Canada’s outlook. The loonie has seen a slight unwinding relative to the greenback since the Sep 8 announcement while the downside risk from NAFTA changes has been in play since last November’s U.S. election. Of course, mention of both those subjects (loonie, NAFTA) could be meaningful.

RBNZ Rates – The Case-Shiller home price index is forecast to rise 0.1% in July. Consumer confidence is set to slip to 120.0 in September vs 122.9. And new home sales may drop 1.9% to a 588k pace in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan outperforming today, as the dollar strengthened. Hang Seng and CSI 300 moved sideways as investors seemed to hold back ahead of a long holiday starting next Monday. The ASX was slightly higher as are FTSE 100 and U.S. futures. The European calendar has Eurozone ESI economic confidence, but political events and central banks remain in focus as traders assess U.S. tax plans, the fallout from the German election, Brexit talks, and now also the risk of a trade war between the U.K. and the U.S. So far both ECB and BoE remain on course to reduce the degree of monetary accommodation somewhat and that should keep yields on an uptrend, especially as stocks move higher.

Germany: German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell back slightly to 10.8 in the October projection from 10.9 in September, suggesting that the election cast its shadow. The full breakdown for the September reading showed a marked improvement in economic sentiment, but a sharp setback for income expectations and the willingness to buy also eased slightly, while inflation expectations turned less negative. Still strong confidence numbers that suggest consumers continue to underpin the recovery, but also indicate that energy price variations quickly leave a mark.

RBNZ held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Acting Governor Spencer saying “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” And a dovish bias was retained, as the Acting Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” This was the same as in August, June and May. In other words, it looks like they won’t hesitate to add accommodation if downside risk to the economy manifest. The onus remains on the inflation and growth data, with additional undershoots setting the stage for further easing. But our base case is for no change into 2018. Notably, they observed that Q2 GDP was as expected while the slowing in Q2 annual CPI kept the measure inside the target range.

BoC’s Poloz: “it is a case of feeling your way as you go” he summarised when asked about what will happen to rates going forward. Indeed, his now concluded presser maintained the cautious tone seen in his prepared speech. He reiterated that we are in “uncharted territory for what economies have been through.” As for the rate hikes we’ve seen so far this year, it was a case of data dependence declared–data much stronger than expected–appropriate to move (and move again). He repeated that they are not on a predetermined course and must watch for important unknowns. As for the projected overshoot of the 2% inflation target in 2019, he nonchalantly said they have the 1-3% band for just that reason. Also of interest, he noted that it is typical at this point in the cycle to over-predict inflation The bank needs to “watch it unfold, fell the way with the data.” It seems that for 2018, the aggressive scenario has been uprooted by a “cautious” scenario until the data says otherwise, with two to three rate increases now factored in to leave a 1.75% to 2.00% setting by the end of the 2018. They “will continue to feel their way cautiously” as we get closer to “home.” Policy will be “particularly data dependent.” The Governor said “at a minimum” the two 2015 rate cuts are no longer needed. USDCAD shot up to 1.2431 from near 1.2350, the highest seen since September 1, following the release of BoC governor Poloz’s prepared remarks.

Main Macro Events Today

EU ESI– Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is seen rising to 112.1 from 111.9., while Industrial and consumer confidence seems to stay unchanged.

US GDP, Jobless Claims & Goods Trade– The third and final print for Q2 GDP, shows a slight upward revision to a 3.1% clip from 3.0%. Advanced indicators goods trade deficit is expected to widen to -$65.0 bln vs -$65.1 bln, while initial jobless claims may or may not settle 11k higher at 270k after a relatively smooth ride last week despite the hurricane impact the week prior.

Speeches of the day – BOE Gov Carney and RBA Deputy Governor Debelle deliver a speech at the Bank of England conference in London today. Meanwhile, Thursday brings also Feds KC’s George who is due to discuss on monetary policy and the economy on BoE conference along with Fed VC Fischer, who is retiring next month. Significant is the fact that Prime Minister May is due to speak as well.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved modestly higher on the last day of the third quarter. Hopes that the U.S. tax reform will boost growth underpinned investor market sentiment, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for a third quarter of gains. Trading volumes were subdued, however, ahead of China’s week long holiday. FTSE 100 futures are up, U.S. futures narrowly mixed. Oil prices are slightly down on the day. European bond yields closed mixed yesterday, with Bunds closing up on the day, but far below intraday highs, while Gilt yields as well as Eurozone peripheral yields dropped. The chance that Eurozone inflation will hold steady today, rather than picking up again helped yields to come down from highs, but in our view won’t prevent the ECB from taking the foot off the accelerator. Already released U.K. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to -9 from -10. The data calendar also includes the final reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as consumer credit data.

FX Update: USDJPY picked up some demand while most other dollar pairings have traded narrow ranges so far today. USDJPY recovered from yesterday’s 112.25 low to the upper 112s. There had been reports yesterday of yen demand into the end of the first half of the fiscal year in Japan, though USDJPY still has rallied, returning focus on the two-and-a-half-month high seen on Wednesday at 113.25. While markets are now taking a more circumscribed view of Trump administrations tax plans, the Fed’s course further tightening is still promoting dollar demand on dips. A batch of data today out of Japan had little impact on forex markets, but encouraging. Japanese Core CPI lifted in September to 0.7% y/y, industrial production rose 2.1% m/m, and retail sales gained 2.8% y/y.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer steered clear of policy and the economic outlook in remarks before the Bank of England, where he discussed “The Independent Bank of England — 20 Years On.” It is still possible those topics may come up in Q&A. As he exited stage right in his last speach as Vice Chairman, he left the markets with this thought: “Or, if I may be permitted a few final words on my way out the door, the watchwords of the central banker should be “Semper vigilans,” because history and financial markets are masters of the art of surprise, and “Never say never,” because you will sometimes find yourself having to do things that you never thought you would.” KC Fed hawk George was true to form, noting further gradual rate hikes are appropriate. The stance of monetary policy is still rather accommodative, she added. She has a brighter outlook on global growth. The U.S. economy is in reasonably good shape currently. There has been a pick-up in business investment. And while there will be a near-term impact from the hurricanes, offsets are projected down the road. George is not an FOMC voter this year nor next.

Main Macro Events Today

EU HCPI and German Unemployment -Eurozone headline HICP inflation expected unchanged at 1.5% y/y in September. The French number may still stick a tad higher, but the slight decline in the Spanish headline rate and the steady German number yesterday suggest that the overall Eurozone number also held pretty stable, despite an uptick in energy prices.

CAD GDP – GDP is expected to improve 0.1% m/m in July after the 0.3% gain in July. The 0.2% dip in retail shipment volumes added to the mixed backdrop for the July GDP report.

US PCE – Personal income and spending are expected to have inched up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively in August, while consumer confidence measures are expected to dip, but from high levels. Core PCE prices are seen up 0.2%.

BoE – BOE Gov Carney is due give closing remarks at the Bank of England’s conference celebrating 20 years of independence, in London. In the conference we will see today also speeches from MPC members such as Broadbent and Cunliffe.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd October 2017.

FX News Today

The Trump bump seemed to get renewed life last week on the release of tax reform plans. That added to an already optimistic tone after signs of solid consumption growth and fixed investment in the U.S. Q2 GDP and with the strength in capital spending evidenced in the August durable goods. Meanwhile, the Asian and European economies are contributing to growth too, with the strength in recent PMIs underpinning positive outlooks.

United States: The September nonfarm payrolls will be the attention-getter which expected at 20k increase after the disappointing 156k gain in August. The September manufacturing ISM (Monday) should slip to 57.5 on the drag from Hurricane Irma, after a stronger than expected 2.5 increase to 58.8 in August. Construction spending for August (Monday) is expected to be unchanged. September vehicle sales (Tuesday) are expected to improve to a 17.0 mln clip, from 16.0 mln previously, though there’s downside risk from the hurricanes. The September ADP (Wednesday) should climb 190k following Augusts 237k surge. There should be little hurricane effect here given the way the data is tabulated. The services ISM (Wednesday) is seen edging up to 55.5 after rising 1.4 points to 55.3 previously. The August trade deficit (Thursday) is forecast narrowing to -$42.5 bln versus July’s -$43.7 bln.

Fedspeak: The U.S. calendar includes may of the key economic reports for the month, but Fedspeak is likely to overshadow, especially as the numbers will be impacted by the varied effects from the hurricanes. Fed Chair Yellen (Wednesday) will be an obvious focal point. Fed Chair Yellen’s comments will be monitored. But after reiterating the Fed’s gradual policy stance last week, she’s unlikely to provide any fresh revelations in her comments on community banking. Along with Yellen, other speakers include Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A (Monday). Governor Powell (Thursday) speaks on the Treasury market. SF Williams will be at a community banking event (Thursday). Harker and George (Thursday), along with Bostic and Kaplan (Friday), speak at a workforce development conference. NY Fed’s Dudley could be the most enlightening with his remarks on monetary policy (Friday). Also, Bullard speaks on the economy (Friday). Along with Yellen, current FOMC voters include Kaplan, Dudley, Powell, Harker, while Williams and Bostic are voters in 2018.

Canada: In Canada, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Leduc speaks on “Firm creation and productivity in the Canadian Economy.” The text of Tuesday’s speech will be available at 12:30 ET. Governor Poloz’s comments from last week provide some insight into the Bank’s view on this topic. The docket of economic data includes the usual early month suspects, notably trade and employment. Employment (Friday) is expected to expand 20.0k in September after the 22.2k rise in August. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.2%, matching August. The trade deficit is projected to slightly narrow to -C$2.9 bln in August from -C$3.0 bln in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to slip to 55.0 in September from 56.3 in August. The Markit manufacturing PMI for September is due Monday. Dealer reported vehicle sales for September are expected Tuesday.

Europe:It’s a relatively quiet week that’s thin on data releases, which are unlikely to bring any change to the ECB outlook. There are some ECBspeakers, while the central bank also releases the minutes of the last meeting (Thursday). Merkel’s quest for allies in the new parliament will continue, but is unlikely to make much progress in a week that includes a holiday on Tuesday. Merkel will remain in office as caretaker until a new Chancellor has been elected. The data calendar has final September PMI readings, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 58.2 and the Services reading (Wednesday) at 55.6, which should see the composite confirmed at 56.7. The highlight of the week will be German manufacturing orders (Friday) where we are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m, after the correction in August. Eurozone growth is broadening and strengthening and even the German recovery is for once underpinned by consumption and domestic demand rather than exports. And while the ECB has acknowledged the improvement, it still sees insufficient changes to underlying inflation to end QE just yet.

UK: Brexit remains a major uncertainty and there are several reasons for investors to tread carefully. Growth was confirmed to be weakest in four years and half the growth the Eurozone saw over the same quarter. Moody’s downgraded sovereign debt. And there have been fresh signals from Brexit negotiators that it’s going to take longer than expected to finalize divorce terms (and so delay the start of new trading talks). The calendar this week is highlighted by the release of PMIs for September, which will be scrutinized given the forward-looking nature of the surveys and their close correlation with real economic performance. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) has us expecting a dip to 56.2 from 56.9, correcting what had been unexpected strength in the August survey. This would still point to decent expansion in the sector, which has been the biggest beneficiary of the weaker pound and strong growth in key export markets. The construction PMI is on Tuesday while the services PMI on Wednesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is thin this week. QV new home prices for September are due Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on November 9. They held rates steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations. The statement by Acting Governor Spencer was consistent with no change in rates for an extended period.

Japan: A solid Tankan survey of business conditions out of Japan this morning, which showed optimism at small manufacturers to be at a decade high had little impact on the yen, with the BoJ still seen as being well behind the Fed in terms of cycle, with chronically tepid inflation still remaining a factor in Japan’s economic circumstance. The Tankan showed that labour shortages to be at a 25-year low, which could be the harbinger of second-round inflation via higher wage demands. September consumer confidence (Tuesday) is penciled in at 44.0 from 43.3, while September services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 52.0 from 51.6.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to hold rates steady at 1.50%. Deputy Governor Debelle takes part in a panel discussion (Thursday). The data docket is headlined by retail sales (Thursday) and the trade balance (Thursday). Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the flat reading (0.0%) in July. The trade surplus is seen improving to A$1.0 bln in August from the A$0.5 bln surplus in July. Building approvals are expected to bounce 2.0% m/m in August after the 1.7% drop in July. The Melbourne Institute inflation index for September is due Monday. September ANZ job ads are scheduled for Tuesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Topix and Nikkei reached fresh two year highs, Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong rallied as markets reopened after a holiday, benefiting from robust PMI data over the weekend and the PBOC’s announcement that it will cut reserve requirement ratio for next year. The Hang Seng is up 1.75%, the Nikkei gained 0.95% while the ASX 200 dropped -0.49%, as lower oil prices weighed on energy stocks and a sharp fall in QBE insurance, after the company detailed expected losses from recent hurricanes, dragged the index down. Mainland China remains closed for holidays. In Europe Germany is closed for a national holiday after Bunds were underpinned yesterday by intra-Eurozone safe haven flows following the escalation of Spanish tensions. Gilts outperformed with the US100 yesterday amid a broader rise in European stocks ex Spain, which benefited from USD strength. U.K. and U.S. stock futures suggest further gains today. Today’s data calendar is relatively quiet, with only Eurozone producer price inflation and the U.K. CIPS Construction PMI.

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises across the September ISM and August construction spending reports that add upside risk to forecasts for an Irma-depressed 120k September nonfarm payroll rise and a 3.0% growth rate for Q3 GDP. For the ISM, we saw a headline pop to a 13-year high of 60.8 from a 6-year high of 58.8 in August, as all the producer sentiment surveys are showing a sharp rise with the hurricane rebuild to new cycle-highs. The jobs index also rose, to a 6-year high of 60.3 in September from a prior 6-year high of 59.9. For construction, we saw a 0.5% August rise after upward revisions across the private construction components, though public construction was revised down sharply, and we now have a new cycle-low for that measure in July before a 0.7% August bounce.

FX Update: The dollar has continued to find demand, posting gains versus the euro, yen, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index clocked a one-and-a-half-month peak at 93.77, while EURUSD traded below 1.1700 for the first time since mid August. USDJPY remained buoyant, albeit with upside momentum being crimped in the face of Japanese exporter offers above 113.00. The pair edged out a high at 113.19, which is six pips short of last week’s two-and-a-half-month peak. The dollar is in demand as markets continue to adjust to the rekindled hawkishness of the Fed, while the elevated tensions between Spain’s central government and the autonomous region of Catalonia have soured appetite for euros. The Australian dollar came under some pressure after the RBA left policy on hold, as was widely expected, but as the accompanying statement of Governor Lowe remained non committal in tone, acknowledging improving economic growth but reaffirming that the inflation outlook remains subdued. AUD-SD posted a two-and-a-half-month low at 0.7785.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – The construction PMI expected to come in unchanged at 51.0, a level indicating only weak expansion in the sector.

EU PPI – PPI is expected to improve 0.1% m/m in August and 2.3% y/y.

FOMC Powell – Governor Powell speaks at a financial regulation event jointly hosted by Reuters and George Washington University, in Washington DC, about regulatory reform.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, as USD weakens and Yen strength saw the Nikkei wiping out gains. The ASX also was under pressure as the dip in oil prices weighed on energy producers, while Chinese stocks in Hong Kong touched a 2-year high and the Hang Seng outperformed. US100 and U.S. stock futures are in the red, suggesting a weak start in Europe, after modest gains yesterday. Germany’s GER30 re-opens after yesterday’s holiday as Spain’s constitutional crisis continues and casts a shadow over the Eurozone. The data calendar includes the final reading of Eurozone services PMIs, as well as the U.K. services PMI and Eurozone retail sales. Germany sells 10-year Bunds.

FX Update: The dollar remained on the ebb, giving back some of the gains posted recently. The narrow trade-weighted USD index is showing a modest 0.2% loss as the London interbank opens, at 93.23, having extended the decline from yesterday’s six-week peak at 93.77. USDJPY ebbed under 112.50 after recent gains stalled above 113.00, where decent export offers were encountered. The pair left a high at 113.19 yesterday, which is 6 pips short of the near three-month high printed last week. The pair had rallied strongly from the early September low at 107.31, though momentum indicators have been turning lower over the last couple of weeks, despite spot making new highs — a divergence that often portends a trend change. EURUSD logged a two-session high at 1.1780, up from yesterday’s two-and-a-half-month low at 1.1696.

Canada: BoC’s Leduc did not directly address policy in his prepared remarks yesterday on the declining dynamism of Canada’s economy. Data show a “surprising and sustained decline in the entry rate of new firms since the early 1980s” he observed. He said “The main concern about the loss of dynamism is that it will lead to less innovation and diminishing long term growth.” As for Canada’s growth, he said it “has been strong, exceeding that of all other G7 countries.” He does find it “encouraging that the Canadian economy is still flexible enough to absorb a major shock” despite the decline in dynamism. He repeated Poloz’s observation that productivity has “increased significantly” since the middle of last year. There is nothing new here on policy or the economy, with the Lane/Poloz duo last month saying all that needed to be said for now. To review, they revealed a pivot to caution following back to back rate hikes in July and September as the economy surged in the first half of this year. Leduc said the growth rate should decline over next few quarters, but remain above potential. That is in-line with the July outlook and Poloz’s comments last month.

USDCAD turned a bit lower as Canadian yields edged up following BoC Leduc’s speech. The pairing had been idling on either side of 1.2510 since the open, before falling back to intra day lows of 1.2482. With oil prices off the boil this week, and narrowed prospects for a near term BoC rate hike, USDCAD upside appears to be the easier path.

Main Macro Events Today

EU and German Markit PMI – The Services EU reading is seen at 55.6, and should see the composite confirmed at 56.7, while German Service PMI and Composite anticipated unchanged at 55.6 and 57.8 respectively. The UK Service is seen unchanged as well at 53.2.

US ADP and ISM Non-Manuf. PMI – The September ADP should climb 125k following Augusts 237k surge. There should be little hurricane effect here given the way the data is tabulated. The services ISM is seen edging up to 55.5 after rising 1.4 points to 55.3 previously.

ECB – President Draghi is due to speak at the Inauguration of the ECB Visito Center in Frankfurt.

Fed’s Yellen- The market anxiously awaits Yellen’s comments today,which might be in vain, since she doesn’t take the podium until 15:15 ET, and then it’s merely to deliver opening remarks at a community banking event. That’s not a venue nor a topic for policy insights. Plus, there will be no Q&A. Nothing has changed since the September 19, 20 FOMC to alter the stance regarding the dot plot and the indication of one more hike this year, a stance which Yellen has tacitly approved. In terms of the Fed chair position, should Yellen not be reappointed, it seems to be a battle between Warsh and Powell, with the former’s threat to “shake up” the Fed a worry.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Another mixed session in Asia, where the Hang Seng continued to outperformed as China remained closed for holidays. ASX and Nikkei meanwhile moved sideways. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed. No clear direction then for European markets, which will also have little to digest on the data front today. ECB speakers and the minutes of the last ECB meeting meanwhile are likely to confirm that the central bank is heading for a reduction in asset purchase volumes, but with the doves still shying away from a firm commitment to an end date for QE. Spain remains in focus as Madrid and Barcelona remain on confrontation course in a dangerous game of chicken.

FX Update: The Aussie came under pressure following the biggest contraction in Australian retailing sales in four years. The currency is showing a 0.5% decline on the day as the London interbank enters the fray, with AUD-USD logging a two-day low at 0.7819. The August report for Australian retail trade saw turnover unexpectedly contracting by 0.6% m/m, contrary to expectations for 0.3% m/m growth. Elsewhere, narrow ranges have prevailed. USD-JPY has plied a sideways path near 111.75, which is about the halfway mark of the range of the last week. EUR-USD has ebbed modestly lower, to the 1.1750 area and nearing yesterday’s low at 1.1746. The lack of direction reflects a general lack of fresh leads. Fed chair Yellen spoke yesterday after the London close, but she steered clear of policy and economic issues.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Minutes –

US Weekly Jobless number – Expectations – 265k down from last weeks 272k

BOE – Speeches – McCafferty and Haldane

FED Speeches – Powell (prospective new FED Chair), Harker and George

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: European stock markets moved broadly higher as U.S. factory orders boosted confidence in the global growth outlook. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong tested 2-year highs. Banks were underpinned as U.S. yields moved higher and the dollar strengthened. FTSE 100 futures are also up and the DAX is still trying to break the 13000 mark, as the focus turns to U.S. jobs data. In the Europe investors continue to watcah the situation in Catalonia carefully. Spanish markets bounced back yesterday as the central government continues to take a hard line on Barcelona’s secession plans, while leaders in Catalonia seem to the pushing for talks. Indeed, for a long term solution both sides must return to the negotiating table.

FX Update: The dollar has been bid up again, after dipping mid week, gaining concomitantly with Treasury yields following a set of strong data out of the U.S. yesterday, along with relatively hawkish Fedspeack and with all three of the main U.S. equity indices setting record closing highs for a fourth straight session. USDJPY edged out a three-session high just above 113.00 and EURUSD clawed out a new seven-week low at 1.1686. USDCAD logged five-week highs, while Cable plumbed a one-month low. AUDUSD clocked a three-month low, at 0.7743, extending the down trend that’s been developing since the pair failed to sustain gains above 0.8000 between late July and September. Markets are now looking to the September employment report, up later today, savvy to temporary distortions caused by the hurricanes. A relatively subdued 120k headline increase is expected. There is also another barrage of Fed speakers due, which will almost certainly, on net, affirm that a rate hike is in the works for the December FOMC.

Main Macro Events Today

MPC Member Haldane Speech

Canadian Unemployment Rate – Expectations – 0.1% down from last month 6.2%

US NFP – Expectations – 66k down from last month 156k

FED Speeches – Kaplan , speak at a workforce development conference. NY Fed’s Dudley could be the most enlightening with his remarks on monetary policy. Also, Bullard speaks on the economy .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th October 2017.

FX News Today

The September U.S. jobs report lived up to its “distorted” billing. But, while many of the stats showed outsized gains (in terms of earnings), or losses (in terms of jobs), they could be generally easily rationalized due to the hurricanes. The net result left intact the view that the FOMC will remain on its gradual course of normalization near-term. After the holiday break for the U.S., Canada, and Japan on Monday, markets will be back at full strength with China returning from a week long absence with PMIs on tap. Even before then, there is a risk of a constitutional showdown in Spain over the Catalonia independence vote and heavy-handed response by Madrid, which may yet have Brexit-like complications for the wary EU itself.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will get off to a slow start after the Columbus/Indigenous Peoples Day holiday break by the markets Monday, focused mainly on more questionable September data including potentially hurricane-impacted inflation and retail sales towards the end of the week.After NFIB small business optimism (Tuesday), MBA mortgage stats are due (Wednesday), along with JOLTS job openings and the FOMC minutes. Accordingly, September PPI is forecast to rise in August (Thursday). Also due then is recently choppy initial jobless claims, seen dropping another 22k to 238k as storm anomalies wash out of the data. Headline CPI is forecast to surge 0.6% in September from 0.4% due to the surge in petroleum prices, in August (Friday).

Canada: A holiday-truncated week is thick with housing data (Monday is Thanksgiving Day). The week begins with September housing starts (Tuesday), expected to dip to 220.0k from the 223.2k in August. Housing permits (Tuesday) are seen slipping 1.0% m/m after the 3.5% drop in July. The August new home price index is due Thursday. The Teranet/National Bank housing price index for September is also due Thursday. There is nothing schedule from the Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: This week’s data releases are unlikely to add much to the discussion as August production numbers are rather backward looking and final inflation numbers are not expected to bring decisive revisions. Developments in Spain, however, will be watched carefully. At the time of writing there was no sign of a breakthrough in the standoff between Madrid and Barcelona. EU officials are watching the situation nervously with a potential showdown on Monday. Wary of setting any type of precedent, they have made clear that an independent Catalonia would no longer be part of the EU, but clearly would prefer the conflict to be resolved without a secession at a time when Brexit talks loom. The data week starts with German August industrial production (Monday). The French production and overall Eurozone IP will be on Thursday. German trade data for August is also due and expected to show another hefty surplus, although the current recovery is more than previously driven by consumption and domestic demand. The main bulk of data releases centres on final September inflation readings, which are expected to confirm German HICP (Friday) at 1.8% y/y, the Spanish (Wednesday) reading at 1.9% y/y, the French (Thursday) at 1.1% y/y, and finally the Italian rate (Friday) at 1.1% y/y. This should leave overall Eurozone HICP inflation, due to the following week on course to be confirmed at 1.5% y/y, well below the ECB’s 2% upper limit for price stability, but also highlighting that the convergence of inflation rates that officials had been hoping would be one of the results of monetary union, hasn’t really happened.

UK: Sterling last week saw its biggest weekly decline, of 2.5% versus the dollar, since August 2016, a time when markets were still reeling from the shock of the vote to leave the EU. Like then, the pound is in a tailspin over political and Brexit uncertainties. The calendar this week has the BRC retail sales report for September (Tuesday), industrial production and trade figures for August (also Tuesday), and the RICS house price balance (Thursday). The BRC report will be monitored to see if the consumer sector continues to hold up, buoyed by near record levels of employment and low borrowing rates, but challenged by an erosion in spending power with inflation exceeding pay increases. As for production, growth in industrial output is expected, which would be the same as in July.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is thin this week. QV new home prices for September are due Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on November 9. They held rates steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations. The statement by Acting Governor Spencer was consistent with no change in rates for an extended period.

Japan: The docket kicks off Tuesday after Monday’s holiday with the August current account, where the surplus is expected to narrow to JPY 2,200 bln from 2,320 bln. August machine orders is on Wednesday. The August tertiary industry index (Thursday) should rise 0.1% from the same previously. September PPI (Friday) is seen accelerating slightly to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% in August. Strength in oil prices may be offset by the firmer yen.

China: Loan growth and new yuan loans for September (Tuesday) should show new loans rising to CNY 1,300 bln from 1,090 bln previously. The September trade report (Friday) is forecast to show the surplus narrowing to $39.0 bln from $41.9 bln. Exports likely remained solid, even to the U.S. despite some trade tensions.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Friday) headlines a thin week of data and events. RBA Deputy Governor Debelle speaks (Tuesday) at the FX Global code of conduct in Hong Kong. August housing investment (Thursday) is expected to gain 2.0% after the 2.9% rise in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, long yields mostly higher. Japanese shares were underpinned by automakers after a three day weekend, the Hang Seng also moved higher, but the post-holiday rally in mainland China fizzled out and the ASX was under pressure as the currency strengthened. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are higher, but for the Eurozone, Spain will be a key focus as Catalan President Puigdemont is set to address lawmakers in Barcelona at 6 pm to discuss the outcome of the referendum, which delivered a resounding yes, but with a very low participation rate. The central government in Madrid meanwhile has pledged to maintain the unity of Spain and there is no support for Barcelona from the EU. Political events could well overshadow the local calendar, which includes industrial production data out of the U.K., France and Italy and finally U.K. trade numbers.

FX Update: The dollar traded mostly softer yesterday in holiday thinned markets, with holidays affect major centres in both North America and Asia. The narrow trade-weighted USD index fell to a two-session low at 93.48, while EURUSD firmed to a two-session high of 1.1756. The dollar also traded at two-session lows versus sterling and the Australian dollar, while USDCAD gave back a chunk of the gains the pair saw on Friday following the U.S. and Canadian employment reports. USDJPY logged a three-session low at 112.33 in Asia before recouping above 112.50, remaining comfortably off from Friday’s three-month high at 113.44. New data and developments were thin on the ground, though Spanish markets priced out Catalan secession risks, with the movement’s leaders stalling amid not unjust concerns about economic mayhem. Geopolitical concerns remain amid reports that North Korea is planning another missile launch, and an escalating diplomatic spat between the U.S. and Turkey.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manufacturing Production – Expectations – Down to 0.3% from 0.5% on July.

UK Trade Balance – Expectations – At -11.20B from last month -11.58B.

CAD Housing Starts – Expectations – to dip to 220.0k from the 223.2k in August. Housing permits are seen slipping 1.0% m/m in August after the 3.5% drop in July.

FED Kashkari – Fed dove Kashkari, will open a regional conditions conference by his branch from 10 ET, followed by Dallas Fed centrist Kaplan who is taking part in a Q&A session at Stanford’s SIEPR after the close from 20 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.