Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 25th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight. In the absence of further news from North Korea global jitters have abated somewhat and with Macron advancing as the favourite in the runoff to the final round of the election, the focus is turning to corporate earnings, the ECB meeting Thursday, and once again Trump’s tax package. The Nikkei remained underpinned by a weaker Yen, Chinese stocks stabilized, after yesterday’s sell off, while Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and Bund futures, which sold off sharply yesterday as save haven trades were being reversed, already started to stabilize later in the session. Eurozone spreads, which came in sharply yesterday as French and peripheral yields dropped, should also start to stabilize again, especially as more stability in France also means there is less need for Draghi’s insurance policy on rates and QE. Today’s calendar has business confidence data from France, the ECB’s bank lending survey, a German Schatz auction and U.K. borrowing numbers.

Fed’s Kashkari said bank regulations made ending too-big-to-fail worse by raising compliance costs on small and medium sized lenders. Kashkari is speaking at an investment conference at UCLA. And he noted big banks likely hate his call for a higher capital cushion. Dodd-Frank legislation was probably a net-positive for the system, but looking back on it, he added it wasn’t perfect and didn’t really address too-big-to-fail. He’s not real sure of the benefits of negative rates. While they may have helped spur people to invest and spend more, and save less, he’s simultaneously concerned that the psychological channel of negative rates may scare people. He didn’t really address monetary policy given his speech falls within the FOMC’s 10-day blackout period.

European markets continued to celebrate Macron’s victory in the first round of the French election during the European session yesterday. Frexit and Eurozone breakup concerns were being priced out, which triggered a broad rally on European stock markets. The FTSE 100 underperformed but still managed to gain more than 2%, and in the Eurozone, it is the Italian MIB rather than the French CAC 40, which is leading the way by rising nearly 4.5%. The revival of risk appetite saw Bund and Gilt yields spiking higher, while Eurozone peripheral yields dropped sharply and spreads came in. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 9.3 bp while the Gilt yield is up 4.1bp. By contrast the French 10-year is down -8.8 bp, the Italian down -4.5 bp, the Spanish down -5.4 bp and the Portuguese a whopping 14.9 bp. At the short end France clearly outperformed and the French yield curve steepened as the 2-year yield lost -11.2 bp . Macron still has to take on Le Pen in the second round of the contest on May 7, but he is tipped to beat the far right, EU critic by a wide margin.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Public Borrowing – March’s Public borrowing data is also up today, and expected to go up to 1.5B from 1.1B last time.

US Consumer Confidence – April consumer confidence is out today and should fall to 124.0 from 125.6 in March and 116.1 in February. Michigan Sentiment rose in its first release, climbing to 98.0 from 96.9 in March and 96.3 in March. However, the IBD/TIPP Poll for April declined to 51.7 from 55.3 in March.

US New Home Sales – March new home sales data expected at 1.2% headline decline to a 585k pace from 592k in February and 558k in January. The other major housing reports were mixed with starts falling to 1.215 mln from 1.202 mln in February whereas existing home sales rose to 5.710 mln from 5.470 mln in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed another broad move higher, after gains on Wall Street yesterday. Hopes for U.S. tax cuts and a weak Yen underpinned a nearly 1% rise in the Yen. Gains in Europe had moderated on Tuesday after the initial rally following the French election result, but global equity markets still seem more relaxed. In the Eurozone though more stability on the political front also means that the pressure on Draghi to change the forward guidance is increasing and a Reuters source story yesterday confirmed that while the ECB may want to wait for the second round in France, it could change tack and start laying the ground for exit strategies at the June Meeting. We don’t expect Draghi to tweak the already announced QE schedule for this year, but real tapering will be on the cards in 2018 and the easing bias is likely to be finally scrapped in June. Today’s calendar is empty. German preliminary HICP, EMU ESI economic confidence and the U.K. CBI retailing survey are all due alongside the ECB meeting tomorrow.

U.S. reports: revealed a strong data set for housing, confidence and sentiment. For new home sales, we saw a 5.8% March surge to a robust 621k rate after net upward revisions, though the pace remained a tick below the 622k cycle-high in July of 2016 despite the winter weather-lift. Both the FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes rose in February by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. Consumer confidence fell in April to a still-robust 120.3 after a March pop to a 16-year high of 124.9 (was 125.6), as confidence fluctuates around its highest levels since December of 2000. Producer sentiment has remained firm in April despite headline drops, as seen with a Richmond Fed downtick to 20.0 from a 7-year high of 22.0 in March and 17.0 in February, versus a 3-year low of -11.0 last August, and Dallas Fed downtick to 16.8 from 16.9 in March and an 11-year high of 24.5 in February. Treasury receipts thus far in April are slightly disappointing however, with a 7% y/y gain despite a lift from last year’s big capital gains.

Australia: Today Australia reported a rise in CPI at 0.5% in Q1 (q/q, sa), matching the growth rate in Q4 and undershooting projections. CPI did accelerate to a 2.1% y/y pace in Q1 from the 1.5% y/y rate in Q4. But that was a touch below projections, but does regardless lift the annual rate above 2.0%. The annual core CPI measures improved: the trimmed mean CPI accelerated to a 1.9% y/y clip in Q1 from 1.6%, while the weighted median CPI picked up to a 1.7% rate from a revised 1.4% growth rate in Q4 (was +1.5%). Notably, the trimmed mean is nearing the bottom of the RBA’s 2.0% to 3.0% target band. The report underpins expectations for steady rates from the RBA through the turn of the year. AUDUSD has dropped to 0.7511 from the 0.7545 level seen just ahead of the report.

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian Retail Sales – Expected at 0.1% gain in February retail sales values. The report, is expected to reveal a 0.2% dip in the ex-autos sales aggregate. There is more forecast risk than usual around this report, as Statistics Canada will present revised figures going back to 2012 that are based on a new sample for the survey.

Pr. Trump Tax Announcement – President Trump plans an announcement Wednesday on his tax code overhaul. As Reuters reported that maybe the biggest Tax Cut since he will propose small business partnerships and sole proprietorships to 15% from 39.6 %.

US Crude Oil Inventories – US Crude Oil Inventories expected to slightly fall to -1.1M from 1M last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japan’s stock rally running out of steam and Chinese equities underperforming as Xi stressed that financial security is “strategically important” to the country’s economic and social development, thus adding to signs that the government is stepping up its crackdown on leverage. The BoJ presented an upbeat picture of the economy, but left policy unchanged, giving markets little reason to move as investors digest Trump’s tax plan that was released yesterday. The Nikkei is down -0.19%, CSI 300 down -0.55%, while Hang Seng and ASX manage marginal gains. FTSE 100 futures are down, while U.S. futures are moving higher. In Europe, the focus shifts to the ECB meeting, with Draghi likely to follow the BoJ’s example and refrain from rocking the boat although the hawks will step up their pressure, especially as German and Spanish HICP rates today are set to accelerate, while ESI economic confidence is seen rising further. The calendar also has the U.K. CBI retailing survey. as well as Spanish unemployment and German consumer confidence at the start of the session.

Trump E.O. on NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) withdrawal is being mulled according to a Politico.com article posted earlier: “The Trump administration is considering an executive order on withdrawing the U.S. from NAFTA, according to two White House officials. A draft order has been submitted for the final stages of review and could be unveiled late this week or early next week, the officials said. The effort, which still could change in the coming days as more officials weigh in, would indicate the administration’s intent to withdraw from the sweeping pact by triggering the timeline set forth in the deal.” Additionally, House Freedom Caucus endorses the revised ACA repeal plan, noting “while the revised version still does not fully repeal Obamacare, we are prepared to support it to keep our promise to the American people to lower health-care costs.” It was the very conservative Freedom Caucus that generally derailed President Trumps initial plan. So far this week equity markets have gotten bullish news from France, taxes, and now the ACA. Wall Street remains in the green, but gains are limited so far after the surges on Monday, Tuesday, although a close here on the S&P at 2,398 would be a new record high. This latest news should particularly benefit healthcare and insurance stocks.

U.S. NEC Director Cohn is introducing the Trump tax cuts with some historic comparisons, as rates and the system are stuck at 1986 levels even as other countries have gotten more competitive and gone to a territorial basis. He will hand over the podium to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin next. There will be 3 brackets, 10%, 25% and 35% (reduced from 7) and double standard deductions, repeal the death tax, tax relief for families with child and dependent care, married couples won’t pay tax on the first $24k in income. They will repeal the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax, with a 15% business tax rate. Home ownership and charitable deductions will be retained, but most other tax breaks will be eliminated.

Canada: Retail sales volume dip tracks a February GDP stall-out.The 0.1% decline in retail sales volumes followed a 1.4% surge in January and a 0.6% decline in December. A 0.4% decline in wholesale shipment volumes joined the 0.1% gain in manufacturing volumes. Housing starts improved 2.3% to a 214.3k unit pace in February, suggestive of another positive contribution from construction production. Mining, oil and gas production are on track to make a substantial negative contribution to February GDP. The lack of growth in February GDP should be followed by a resumption of activity in March GDP.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Confidence & Rate Decision – Confidence indicators continue to look good, inflation is expected to bounce back with the April reading and Macron’s advance in the French election means Frexit and Eurozone breakup risks seem banned for now. Against that background, the hawks at the ECB council will likely intensify their push for a change in the forward guidance at the council meeting tomorrow and Draghi will be under fresh pressure to at least drop the implicit easing bias.

ECB meeting – ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference have been scheduled for 12:30 GMT today.

US Durable Goods – March durable goods orders are expected to be unchanged (i.e. 1.2%) following February’s 1.7% increase, on top of the 2.3% January gain which were supported by transportation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly lower, disappointing earnings reports out of Japan underpinned the correction from the two-week rally and investors are holding back ahead of the Golden Holiday. The ASX is a notable outperformer and clinging on to marginal gains. U.K. stock futures are moving higher but U.S. futures are heading south. After pushing stock indices to new highs investors need further impetus to drive the rally further and are likely to remain cautious ahead of the long weekend in Europe. Yields headed south yesterday, especially in the Eurozone, after Draghi did his best to assure markets that nothing has changed and that should help to cushion the impact of the likely jump in HICP inflation today. Today’s bumper data already includes Spanish GDP, UK Preliminary GDP and CPI Flash Estimate. U.S. calendar includes Q1 GDP, Q1 ECI, Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment.

U.S. reports revealed largely expected durable orders figures for March, but with lean inventory data that combined with a downside surprise for advance trade in goods, with weakness in both exports and imports, to trim our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.1% from 1.2%. The advance indicators report also revealed weak wholesale inventory data, though with an upside retail inventory surprise that left a slightly stronger inventory path on net. We also saw a 14k pop in initial claims to 257k in the Easter week, though claims remain tight overall despite holiday-related volatility over the past month, leaving an average thus far in April of a lean 244k. Pending home sales fell 0.8% as expected in March after a 5.5% February pop, and the Bloomberg comfort index rose to a sturdy 50.8. More generally, the durables, trade, and claims data have sustained their firming pattern that implies a pick-up in 2017 growth beyond the disappointing outlook for tomorrow’s Q1 GDP report, which appears to reflect the odd recent pattern of Q1 seasonal weakness.

Japan’s data dump revealed tepid inflation and mixed growth figures. Hence, nothing surprising from the CPI, retail sales, employment, consumption, and industrial production reports. The yen is little changed relative to the New York close, with USDJPY at 111.30. The core CPI measure (excludes fresh food but not energy) grew at a 0.2% y/y pace in March, matching the 0.2% pace in February and remaining well below the BoJ’s 2% target. The employment backdrop remains strong, with the unemployment rate at 2.8% in March, matching February’s 2.8%. But wages and income growth are weak, holding back consumption. Granted, retail sales surged 2.1% y/y in March after the 0.2% gain in February. But month comparable sales were a rather anemic 0.2% in March after the 0.3% gain in February. And household spending contracted 1.3% y/y in March after the 3.8% tumble in February. Industrial production fell 2.1% m/m in March (preliminary) after a 3.2% gain in February. Yet the measure grew at a 3.3% y/y pace in March after the 4.7% y/y gain in February, continuing the run of strong y/y gains (3.1% to 4.7%) seen since November. Unfortunately, Japan’s pick-up in industrial production is due to external demand, as the domestic demand backdrop remains rather weak.

Main Macro Events Today

US Advance GDP & UoM Consumer – The Advance Q1 GDP report should be one of the more interesting releases. Growth is expected to slow to a 1.3% pace from Q4’s 2.1% pace, and continuing the trend over the last several years of measurable erosion in Q1.More timely data includes Chicago PMI and the final April print on consumer sentiment which is expected unchanged at 98.

UK Prelim GDP – The UK data schedule picks up, highlighted by the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate where growth expected to slow to 0.4% q/q from 0.7%.

EU CPI – April Eurozone CPI expected at 1.8% y/y, up from 1.5% last month.

Canadian GDP – Canada awaits the first look at February GDP, expected to reveal 0.1% reading after the 0.6% surge in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st May 2017.

FX News Today

A convergence of politics, as well as monetary and fiscal policy will collide this week after President Trump finishes commemorating his first 100-days in office over the weekend. Despite lobbying Congress hard for a second vote on the ACA repeal and a Continuing Resolution (CR) on government funding, those cans were kicked down the round with a delayed vote on the former and successful one-week funding bill that will buy a little more time on both fronts. Passed by the House, the CR will keep the government running next week allowing lawmakers more time to debate on a long-term bill to take operations through the rest of the fiscal year. The Senate also unanimously passed the CR to keep the government funded for one more week, while leadership of both houses indicated they are close to a broad spending plan. Markets will weigh these developments closely ahead of the FOMC meeting and April payrolls. Asia cools off this week at least in terms of data, if not geopolitics, after N. Korea fired another failed test missile. In Europe, in wake of the mixed messages from the more bullish-but-dovish ECB last week focus will be returning to eurozone politics with the second round of presidential elections in France at the end of the week

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be overshadowed by the April employment report, which looms at the end of the week. April nonfarm payrolls are forecast to increase by 188k vs the subpar 98k reading in March, with a 98k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.5% last month. The week will start out with March personal income (Monday), seen rising 0.3% vs 0.4%, while April ISM is forecast to dip to 56.6 from 57.2 (Monday). April vehicle sales are projected to rebound (Tuesday) and MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday) following the rebound in rates from post-election lows, which could crimp refits. The April ADP Employment report (Wednesday) should post a 190k gain (median 200k), below the March figure of 263k. April ISM services may bounce (Wednesday) to 55.9 from 55.2, while EIA energy inventory data is due. The March trade deficit is set to widen to -$44.7 bln from -$43.6 bln (Thursday) and Q1 productivity is seen flat, down from 1.3% in Q4. Initial jobless claims may dip 11k to 246k (Thursday) for the week ended April 29, while March factory goods are expected to be flat vs 1.0%. In addition to the jobs report (Friday), consumer credit is forecast to increase $16.0 bln from $15.2 bln.

Canada: Canadian calendar is rather lean in terms of the number of top tier releases this week, the reports that are out have the potential to move the market. Employment (Friday) is expected to rise 20.0k in April after the 19.4k gain in March. The risk remains for a pull-back in jobs given the robust gains in total jobs that stretch back to August with only one interruption (November’s jobs tally slipped 2.4k). The earnings figures will be of as much interest as the total jobs figures, with another anemic month of earnings growth consistent with the Bank of Canada’s view that “material excess capacity remains” in Canada’s economy. The March trade report (Thursday) is projected to show a trimming in the deficit to -C$0.8 bln from the -C$1.0 shortfall in February that ended the upbeat run of trade surpluses that lasted from November of 2016 to January of this year. Exports are seen making some headway (+0.7%) after the 2.4% tumble in January. The loonie was weaker against the U.S. dollar, which is supportive of export growth. The Ivey PMI for April is due Friday while the Markit manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Monday. Dealer reported vehicle sales for April are expected on Tuesday. BoC Governor Poloz delivers a speech (Thursday) in Mexico City to the CanCham Mexico and Club de industrials. The speech will be available on the Bank’s website at 16:10 ET.

Europe: Data releases this week are unlikely to change the overall picture of a cyclical recovery that is also starting to lead to broad improvements on the labour market. After French and Spanish GDP numbers are looking for an overall Eurozone GDP growth (Wednesday) of 0.5% q/q, unchanged from Q4. The second quarter started with a strong round of confidence data and an encouraging revival in France which is catching up and adding to signs that the recovery is not just focused on Germany. The final round of April PMI readings should confirm the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 56.8, and the Services reading at 56.2 which should leave the composite at 56.7, indicating a strong expansion of economic activity. Markit reported with the release of preliminary numbers that employment growth continues to be strong Especially the German labour market is looking quite tight already and we are looking for a further improvement in the sa jobless number of -11K leaving the April jobless rate unchanged at a record low of 5.8%. Overall Eurozone numbers are more backward looking but the March reading should fall to 9.4% from 9.5%, although developments remain uneven across countries and the high rate of youth unemployment remains a key challenge for politicians going ahead.

The calendar also has Eurozone PPI and supply from France and Spain, while Germany sells EUR 3 bln of 10-year Bunds on Wednesday. There is plenty of ECB speak from Lautenschlaeger, Praet and Draghi among others, but comments are likely to focus on Draghi’s main message from last Thursday, namely that nothing has changed so far.

UK: The business week in London markets starts on Tuesday after the May Day holiday on Monday. The calendar this week is highlighted by the April PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) expected at a 52.0 reading after the 52.0 outcome in March. A similar abatement is anticipated in the construction and services PMIs (due Wednesday and Thursday, respectively), seeing the former at 52.0, down from 52.0, and the latter at 54.5, down from 55.0 in March. In-line data would reaffirm a picture of an economy in the early throws of stagnation, amid eroding real household incomes, ongoing government austerity, political uncertainty, and declining investment.

Japan: Japan reveals the April manufacturing PMI on Monday, which is expected to tick up to 52.5 from 52.4. April auto sales are also on deck Monday. In China, the April Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected at 51.0 from 51.2 previously, while the April services PMI (Thursday) should advance to 52.5 from 52.2.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. The statement is projected to be consistent with no change in rates through year end. The Bank’s Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday) will provide updated growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks (Thursday) on “Household Debt, Housing Prices and Resilience.” Economic data is headlined by the March trade report (Thursday), projected to show a A$3.5 bln surplus in March after the A$3.6 surplus in February. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Index for April is due Monday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the Q1 employment report (Wednesday), projected to show a 0.7% gain after the 0.8% gain in Q4. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.1% from 5.2% in Q4. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week. No change in the 1.75% rate setting through year-end s anticipated.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets tried to move higher after the holidays, but Hang Seng and ASX are now slightly in the red, as is the CSI 300, while the Nikkei outperforms and is posting a 0.58% gain, helped by a weaker Yen and testing the ceiling that has been in place since December ahead of the holidays. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged, while highlighting the high level of debt in China as a medium term risk. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher after yesterday’s holiday, while U.S. futures are down, with investors looking ahead to the FOMC decision. Today’s European calendar has the final readings of Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, which are expected to confirm preliminary numbers, while the U.K. manufacturing PMI is expected to dip slightly to 54.0 from 54.2 in the previous month. The Eurozone also has Eurozone unemployment data for March and there is ECB speak from Noy and Nowotny.

FX Update: USDJPY has lifted for a second consecutive day, this time logging a new six-month peak at 112.10. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also up quite sharply, reflecting general underperformance of the Japanese currency. EUR-PY clocked a seven-week high at 122.46. The reflects rising global investor risk appetite, which has been weighting on the safe haven yen in accordance with the normal pattern. This comes with various bellwether Wall Street and global indexes trading at or near record highs, with the CBOE implied vols “fear gauge” tipping to the lowest level since 2007 yesterday. News that Greece reached a deal with the IMF and EU, along with a continued strong lead in French opinion polls for pro-EU presidential candidate Macron, have helped maintain a general risk-on vibe, though stock markets have been mixed in Asia today, while U.S. and European equity indexes are slightly lower. The RBA did the expected and left monetary policy unchanged following its latest meeting, and upgraded the language on its outlook for employment in the statement, noting unemployment should “decline gradually over time” while saying that it expects a “gradual further increase in underlying inflation” as the economy strengthens. AUDUSD rallied to an eight-day high of 0.7556 in the wake of the statement, since ebbing to the 0.7530 area.

U.S. reports revealed weaker headlines than expected, but massive upward revisions in the January and February construction spending data left a stronger than expected data mix that lifted our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7%. For construction, a 0.2% March drop followed boosts in the nonresidential, public, and home improvement components, with a firm new home construction trajectory. This accompanied a 0.2% personal income rise with flat consumption that modestly undershot assumptions, alongside a big 0.3% “real” increase thanks to weather-led firmness in service consumption and an expected 0.2% headline PCE chain price drop. An ISM drop to a 4-month low of 54.8 from 57.2 in March and a 30-month high of 57.7 in February still left a firm level, and the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys is still on track for a solid 56 reading from a 57 cycle-high in February and March.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manufacturing PMI – The manufacturing PMI expected to reveal a fractional ebb to a 54.0 reading after the 54.2 outcome in March.

EU Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Rate – The final round of April PMI readings should confirm the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 56.8, while March’s unemployment rate expected to fall at 9.4% from 9.5% last time, although developments remain uneven across countries and the high rate of youth unemployment remains a key challenge for politicians going ahead.

NZD employment report – New Zealand’s calendar has the Q1 employment report, projected to show a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa). The unemployment rate is seen to be unchanged at 5.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were thinned out by holidays with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong closed, CSI and ASX are in negative territory ahead of the Fed announcement. Poor Apple Inc earnings results weighed on sentiment but this didn’t prevent Taiwan markets to move slightly higher. No surprises are expected from the FOMC — not any change in rates nor any clear hint of the timing of the next move, but surveys suggest another rate hike in June. There’s no press conference or release of estimates this time around, thus the only update on Fed thinking will be via the policy statement, and that shouldn’t be too revealing. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, pointing to a correction in European markets, which managed to extend gains into the close on Tuesday. The DAX cleared the 12500 mark yesterday and was at new all-time highs. The European calendar has German unemployment data for April as well as the first reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP, a German 10-year Bund sale and the U.K. Construction PMI for April.

FX Update: The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges into the Fed’s policy announcement later today, where Bloomberg calculates there is a 12.8% chance for a 25 bp rate hike. EURUSD eked out a three-session peak at 1.0936, and is presently settled near net unchanged on the day at 1.0921 bid. USDJPY has settled to an orbit of the 112.00 level, below the one-month peak seen yesterday at 112.30. Sterling has come under pressure heading into the London open, with Cable have shed over 50 pips in making a 1.2884 low. This follows yesterday’s failure to test last week’s six-month high in the wake of a strong UK manufacturing report, and with all the signs suggesting that the Britain and the EU are heading into tough Brexit negotiations. Market conditions have been thin so far today, with Japan and Hong Kong out.

U.S. ACA repeal update: “very good progress” is being made on Obamacare repeal, said House Speaker Ryan, following remarks from Majority Whip Scalise that the modified healthcare plan would still protect those with pre-existing conditions. A vote on the bi-partisan intermediate government funding bill is scheduled for tomorrow, while a vote on ACA repeal has yet to be set. Meanwhile stocks and yields are heading lower after soft initial auto sales figures for April.

Main Macro Events Today

EU GDP – Eurozone GDP growth of 0.5% q/q, from 0.4% of Q4. In the past, variations in the timing of Easter have had an impact on quarterly growth rates and maybe it’s better to see Q1 and Q2 in conjunction to better assess the underlying trend.

US ADP Employment & ISM Services – The April ADP Employment report should post a 180k gain, below the March figure of 263k. April ISM services may bounce to 55.8 from 55.2, while EIA energy inventory data is due.

FOMC Statement – FOMC began its meeting and will announce its decision today. No change is widely expected. There’s no press conference this time around, or release of economic and dot-plot forecasts, so the statement will be scrutinized for hints on the normalization path.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund futures headed south in after hour trade yesterday and yields spiked in the wake of the FOMC announcement, which saw the Fed reiterating plans for gradual rate hikes. Asian stock markets were mostly down, the CSI managed to hang on to marginal gains however, and Japan remained closed for this week’s holidays. Metals dragged markets down as iron ore futures tumbled amid inventory concerns. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher though, pointing to opening gains, while the drop-in Bund futures late yesterday suggests opening losses on bond markets. Today’s calendar has services PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.K. as well as the Norges Bank decision. The U.K. also has lending data and the Eurozone retail sales numbers for March.

U.S. reports: revealed a solid round of April ISM-NMI figures that highlighted the upside risk for our 190k April payroll estimate, though we also saw a restrained round of April ADP figures after an outsized March gain. For sentiment, a 57.5 April reading sat just below the 16-month high of 57.6 in February, versus an interim 55.2 figure in March, while the ISM-adjusted measure similarly returned to the 18-month high of 56.5 from February, versus an interim 53.9 figure in March. For ADP, a 177k April rise slightly above expectations, though the March ADP surge was only modestly trimmed to 255k from 263k, leaving substantial room for “catch up” in Friday’s jobs data. The March payroll data may have been depressed by bad weather in the BLS survey week, and ADP figures aren’t impacted by weather disruptions as inactive workers generally remain on company’s payrolls, so the big net-rise for ADP over the March-April period suggests upside risk on Friday.

FOMC left policy unchanged with a 0.75% to 1.00% target band. The Fed’s statement acknowledged the slowing in Q1 growth but said it was “likely to be transitory.” There was no new information on the balance sheet. For more of the guts of the statement, the Fed added that the labor market continue to strengthen, even as the economy slowed. Household spending rose only modestly but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed. Meanwhile, annual inflation has been “running close to the Committee’s 2% longer-run objective,” said the Fed, which was a small but important shift from March where the Fed said “inflation was “moving close to the…2% target.” It looks like price pressures are even nearer the goal. Near term risks to the economic outlook remain in balance. The vote was a unanimous 9-0. The outcome is as was expected. The door was left wide open for a tightening in June if the data tracks the expected Q2 rebound.

Europe: EMU Q1 GDP growth came in at 0.5% q/q, while the annual rate fell back to 1.7% y/y from 1.8% y/y. There was no breakdown with the preliminary release but in any case, it is likely that the different timing of Easter this year has led to some distortions, as the services sector will have gotten a boost in April this year, rather than in March, while production will have been stronger without the holiday period in March this year compared to 2016. Hence it is widely expected to see the ECB removing its easing bias at the June meeting, when the updated set of staff forecasts are also due. The UK April construction PMI beat expectations in rising to a headline reading of 53.1. Residential construction and civil engineering activity drove the uptick in expansion in the sector. Both construction and the manufacturing PMI’s have beaten expectations, rebounding from a recent soft patch and showing once again that the UK economy is performing resiliently as the sharp end of the Brexit process draws closer. Attention will now fall on the services PMI release today, as this sector accounts for nearly 80% of the economy.

Main Macro Events Today

US Data – The March trade deficit is set to widen to -$44.5 bln from -$43.6 bln and Q1 productivity is seen flat down from 1.3% in Q4. Initial jobless claims may dip 10k to 247k for the week ended April 29, while March factory goods are expected to be at 0.4% vs 1.0%.

Canadian Trade balance and BoC Governor Speech – The March trade report is projected to show a trimming in the deficit to -C$0.8 bln from the -C$1.0 shortfall in February that ended the upbeat run of trade surpluses that lasted from November of 2016 to January of this year. Also, BoC Governor Poloz delivers a speech in Mexico City to the CanCham Mexico and Club de industrials.

ECB’s Draghi Speech – There is plenty of ECB speak from Lautenschlaeger, Praet and Draghi among others, but comments are likely to focus on Draghi’s main message from last Thursday, namely that nothing has changed so far.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south as oil dropped below USD 45 per barrel for the first time since November last year. Chinese equities meanwhile continued to decline amid ongoing efforts by regulators to curb leverage and speculation. Japan and South Korea remained closed for holiday and investors are looking ahead to today’s U.S. jobs report. With a pretty empty data calendar in Europe, the latter will remain in focus and it remains to be seen whether Eurozone markets, which already “celebrated” Macron’s clear lead in the polls ahead of Sunday’s presidential election yesterday, can push things further today, or whether caution returns, especially ahead of the U.S. numbers. Bund futures, which sold off sharply yesterday, moved sideways in after hour trade and FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are heading south and after the DAX reached new all time highs yesterday there may be some profit taking.

U.S. reports: revealed a better than expected round of March trade figures but downside surprises for the nondurable data in the March factory goods report that trimmed our Q1 GDP estimate back to the 0.7% advance figure despite firm equipment readings, with an $8 bln downward inventory revision that offsets an expected $8 bln construction boost. We also saw a tight round of initial claims figures at the close of April that added to the upside risk for 185k April nonfarm payroll estimate in tomorrow’s jobs report. The Q1 productivity figures revealed the expected 0.6% Q1 drop after a Q4 boost to 1.8% from 1.3%, while the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose to a 50.9 figure that sits just below the 51.3 cycle-high from mid-March. All the data support the narrative that the Q1 growth figures were depressed by seasonal weakness that will be sharply reversed in Q2 and Q3.

U.S. House “narrowly passed” the healthcare reform bill that aims to replace ACA with a new program, though the final shape of the package will be determined by the Senate, which just signed off on the temporary government funding bill through September. U.S. Senate has passed the $1.1 tln spending bill to fund the government through the rest of the fiscal year. The vote was 79-18. It has been passed on to the president for his signature which will finalize the legislation (the current CR expires Friday). He sign it, even though it doesn’t include many of his campaign priorities, including funding the border wall. It also doesn’t include the proposed $18 bln in spending cuts for healthcare, the environment, and other programs. But, it provides some $21 bln of the requested $30 bln in additional military funding.

Main Macro Events Today

US Employment – April employment data is out today and expected at 185k headline that exceeds the 98k headline and March but falls short of February’s 219k bounce.

Canada Employment – Employment is expected to rise 20.0k in April after the 19.4k gain in March. The risk remains for a pull-back in jobs given the robust gains in total jobs that stretch back to August with only one interruption. The Ivey PMI for April is due today as well.

Fedspeak – Fedspeak resumes today with speeches from Chair Yellen, her Vice Chair Fischer and SF Fed’s Williams. Chicago’s Evans, Boston’s Rosengren and St. Louis’ Bullard will take part in a panel discussion. Yellen is slated to speak on “125 Years of Women’s Participation in the Economy” at 13:30 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2017.

FX News Today

Global growth has become less of a worry, even though there are still plenty of challenges ahead. The solid U.S. April jobs report supports the view that Q1 weakness was transitory. And it adds to the growing body of evidence that shows the smaller Eurozone economies are catching up to Germany’s drive such that the expansion is deepening and broadening. The U.K. has been surprisingly resilient to Brexit fallout. And though Asia is more of a question mark with some slowing in China and still weak consumption in Japan, the region looks to remain rather robust.

United States: The U.S. employment report went a long way toward restoring confidence in the expansion, and even hinted that the Trump bump and rise in producer sentiment might be working their way into the real sector given the broad-based nature of the gains. There are a couple of important indicators due out this week, including CPI and retail sales, though neither are likely to materially change the view that the weakness in Q1 was temporary. Along with data, the $62 bln May refunding is on tap. Some concessions were made into the weekend, but the offerings could prove difficult amid rising risk appetite. Earnings reports will remain a factor too, but the calendar is considerably lighter this week as the season dies down. Other data reports out this week include the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday), which has improved significantly since the Trump election. JOLTS job openings for March (Tuesday) will give the markets another angle on the labor market. Then trade prices (Wednesday) will provide another view on inflation parameters. The April Treasury budget (Wednesday) will give a more complete view on the important tax season inflows and outflows. PPI for April (Thursday) will highlight inflation developments from the producer side.

Canada: The Canadian calendar has a limited amount of economic data and nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to moderate to a still elevated 220.0k pace in April from the 253.7k pace in March. Building permit values (Tuesday) are projected to expand 5.0% m/m in March after the 2.5% drop in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m in March after the 0.4% gain in February. The next event on the BoC calendar is the policy announcement (May 24), which no change to the current 0.50% rate setting expected alongside a still cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that maintains our ongoing view that no change in rates will prevail through year end.

Europe: With markets digesting the French election, German manufacturing orders for March (Monday) may attract less attention than usual at least if there is no major negative surprise in the wings. The German orders data will be the most forward looking of this week’s data round, which otherwise focuses mostly on Q1. German industrial production (Tuesday) is expected to have corrected -0.4% m/m in March, after expanding strongly in February, while French production should rebound from the drop-in February and rise 1.0% m/m. This should leave the Eurozone number up 0.4% m/m. German trade data for March will complete the German Q1 cycle ahead of the preliminary GDP release (Friday). After the robust Eurozone release, the German growth number is expected to come in at 0.6% q/q, up from 0.4% q/q in Q4 last year.

UK: The stellar set of April PMI surveys of last week showed that the UK economy remains resilient in the face of Brexit uncertainties. The UK calendar this week includes the May BoE MPC meeting and publication of the central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report (Thursday). No change to prevailing policy settings is widely anticipated, while the recent signs of accelerating economic activity after a relative soft patch in Q1, along with robust global growth, should feature in both the policy meeting’s minutes and the inflation report narrative. Data include the April BRC retail sales report (Tuesday), where expected to rise by 0.4% y/y after the -1.0% figure in the month prior. The late timing of Easter this year has messed with seasonal adjustments somewhat, so markets will be looking at the underlying three-month figure for better clarity. Industrial production data for March are also up (Thursday), which expected to be improved to a -0.4% m/m figure after -0.7% in February. Trade data will be released at the same time.

Japan: In Japan, April consumer confidence (Monday) should slip back to 43.5 from 43.9, while the March current account surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to JPY 2,400 bln from 2,813.6 bln. April bank loan figures are also due Thursday.

Australia: Calendar has retail sales (Tuesday), expected to improve 0.1% m/m in March after the 0.1% dip in February. Building approvals (Monday) are seen falling 4.0% in March following the 8.3% bounce in February. ANZ job ads for April are also due (Monday). There is nothing on the docket from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of Hong Long slipped after yesterday’s rally, which saw Japan’s Topix rising to the highest level since December 2015. The Nikkei is little changed on the day and Chinese stocks fluctuated. Weak retail sales data from Australia weighed on forex and equity markets and investors are taking stock while waiting for a catalyst before making further headway. In Europe FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, despite a stronger Pound ahead of the BoE meeting and as PM May is heading for a convincing victory in the June election. The DAX may have risen above 12700 for the first time ever last Friday, but is struggling to keep that level amid bouts of profit taking as the Macron rally peters out and the focus turns to ECB tapering. Mersch yesterday all but confirmed that the ECB will change its forward guidance in June and tapering announcements are now being expected for September. With that in mind Eurozone spreads are likely to remain volatile, as markets try to assess what the withdrawal of the ECB’s support measures means for peripherals. Today’s calendar has Italian retail sales data. Already released U.K. BRC retail sales were much stronger than anticipated, but March/April are likely to have been impacted by the different timing of Easter this year.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Mester discussed yesterday the economic outlook before the Chicago Council of Global Affairs. As she stated, she wants rate action taken before the Fed’s goals are met as she’s worried about falling behind the curve, according to her prepared remarks on the economic outlook. It’s important for the FOMC to remain “very vigilant against falling behind.” If price pressures become excessive as the labor market becomes unsustainably tight, policymakers may have to “move rates up steeply,” and that could risk recession. And she believes the Fed has achieved its maximum employment goal. She would also like the Fed to start normalizing its balance sheet this year. She is a hawk, but doesn’t vote this year. Fed’s Bullard on the other hand, believes the current rate setting is appropriate, according to a speech on the natural rate at an Atlanta Fed conference. He stated that the “natural rate of interest, and hence the appropriate policy rate, is low and unlikely to change very much over the forecast horizon.” And he added the U.S. seems to be in a low-growth state, though “a case could be made that some recent observations have been more consistent with the high-growth state.” Bullard is not a voter this year.

Germany: posted a sa trade surplus of 19.6 bln in March, down from EUR 21.2 bln in the previous month. Exports dropped 0.4% m/m , while imports surged 2.4% m/m, the latter after falling -1.6% m/m in February. March data brought the total for the first quarter of the year to EUR 59.7 bln, down from EUR 60.0 bln in the previous quarter. These are nominal numbers, that do not account for fluctuations in exchange rates and oil prices. And with import prices picking up that suggests real data will look somewhat better. Overall though net exports actually detracted from overall growth last year, and are still pretty subdued. The current account surplus widened in March, and rose 1.2% y/y in Q1, thus adding further ammunition to the critics of Germany’s large surplus.

Main Macro Events Today

US NFIB & JOLTS – Today, the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is out, which has improved significantly since the Trump election. Also, we will see JOLTS job openings for March will give the markets another angle on the labor market.

Canadian Building Permit – Building permit values are projected to expand 5.0% m/m in March after the 2.5% drop in February. Looking back, the 2.5% decline in building permit values in February came after a revised 5.8% gain in January (was +5.4%).

Fedspeak – St Louis Fed’s Bullard will be on a panel discussing interest rates today. The dove Kashkari will speak at a high-tech conference. Rosengren speaks at an NYU conference on risk management. Kaplan will speak at an interest rate summit.

AU Budget Report – Australia’s calendar has Annual Budget Release today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, led by shares in Hong Kong, which rose to a 21 month high led by financials. Strong leads from the U.S. underpinned markets, although elsewhere gains were more muted and U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are heading south, indicating a correction from yesterday’s surge higher that saw the DAX climbing further above the 12700 mark and the FTSE 100 closing above 7300. European yields moved higher yesterday as investors flocked into stocks, with the Bund still outperforming Gilts, as Eurozone markets price in tapering and rate steps amid strong growth indicators and receding political risks. Mersch all but confirmed the expected change in guidance on Monday and Draghi will have a further chance to clarify the central bank’s stance at his speech to Dutch lawmakers today. In the U.K. the BoE starts its two day meeting, with expectations for an unchanged policy stance. The European data calendar has production data out of Italy and France as well as Norwegian inflation numbers and French trade.

FX Update: The dollar has traded modestly lower so far today, which some market narratives link with Trump’s firing of FBI Director Comey. USDJPY settled back under 114.00 after clocking a two-month peak at 114.33 yesterday. The high caps an impressive winning streak, with the pair having climbed in every session bar three over the last three weeks as it lifted out of the 108.12 six-month low posted on April 17. EURUSD settled in the upper 1.08s after logging a 12-day low yesterday at 1.0863. The narrow USD index is down by 0.2%, correcting some after logging a 19-day high yesterday. Oil prices have continued to see relatively steady price action, near $46.0 in the case of the WTI future, while most Asian stock markets have gained today following a flat session on Wall Street yesterday.

US reports: report revealed divergent surprises, with a disappointing flat figure for March wholesale sales after a 0.7% February increase, but a 0.2% inventory rise that beat the 0.1% drop in the advance indicators report, after a 0.3% February rise. Sales undershot inventories after beating inventories for three consecutive months, hence slowing the downtrend in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to leave a 1.28 ratio for a third consecutive month. Now a Q1 GDP growth boost expected to 0.9% from 0.7%, with a $7 bln boost in wholesale inventories that accompanies an $8 bln downward factory inventory revision, U.S. JOLTS showed March job openings rose 61k to 5,743k from a downwardly revised 5,682k (was 5,743k). But the job openings rate was steady at a solid 3.8%. Hirings rebounded 11k to 5,260, also from a downward revision to 5,249k (was 5,314k). The rate was flat at 3.6%. Quitters, a favorite stat of Chair Yellen, increased 80k to 3,116k from 3,036k, with the rate holding at 2.1%. Data aren’t new and will be taken in stride, though they continue to show a tight labor market.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Rosengren warned that the jobless rate at 4.4% is below “natural full employment” estimates at 4.7% and a further drop below 4.0% “would likely be accompanied by higher inflation, overheating the economy and prompting higher rates.” Also, balance sheet shrinkage shouldn’t be disruptive, said the non-voting Fed president, in post speech Q&A. The market can absorb balance sheet shrinkage, if it’s done gradually. It should be highly tapered, and part of the intent is to let mortgage rates rise. The Fed is still discussing its portfolio strategy, it’s still pretty “speculative,” he admitted, but he hopes to normalize the balance sheet will begin relatively soon, repeating recent comments. He also said the Fed is likely to hit zero rates again in future recessions.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Speech – ECB President Draghi speaks at the Dutch House of Representatives, in Netherlands, about the impact of Monetary policy.

US Imports and Exports & Budget Statement – April trade price data is out today and expected at 0.1% increase for exports with a matching 0.1% increase for imports. This would follow March data which had exports up 0.2% and imports down 0.2%. Oil prices rebounded in April after a dip in March which should help support the data. Also, April’s Treasury budget is out and will give a more complete view on the important tax season inflows and outflows.

RBNZ Rate Statement & Press Conference – Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting. No change in the 1.75% rate setting is anticipated, along with a statement that is consistent with steady rates through year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets managed modest gains as higher oil prices underpinned energy producers and indices near multi-year highs. Mainland China underperformed once again amid official efforts to curb leverage. New Zeeland benchmarks meanwhile led the move higher after the central bank said it will keep rates at record lows for an extended period of time. U.S. futures are heading south but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher after already outperforming yesterday ahead of today’s BoE announcement. Expectations are for a steady policy decision, leaving the minutes and the inflation report in focus. In the Eurozone, Draghi managed to bring some calm into spreads, as he signaled that the forward guidance may be changed in June, but that real tapering is still a way off and won’t start before next year. The calendar today also has U.K. production data as well as inflation numbers out of Switzerland and Sweden, the ECB’s latest economic bulletin and the EU Commission’s updated set of forecasts.

ECB Outlook: Risk to price stability is “by and large gone” as President Draghi stated.He added that the forward guidance was meant to address tail risk and that some tail risks are less and less probable. The clearest sign yet from the ECB President that the easing bias will be scrapped in June and Bund futures are coming off intraday highs on the comments. With the risk of the French election out of the way the ECB is firmly on course to tweak the forward guidance in June, with Draghi following up Mersch’s comments from Monday, which show the central bank moving towards a more balanced view on growth and inflation and laying the ground for dropping the easing bias, that is still in place and adopting a neutral stance. The QE schedule for this year, which has already been announced, will remain in place and real tapering won’t start before 2018 and will be announced in September at the earliest. The key issue then for June is whether the statement tweaks the guidance in a way that would allow to lift the deposit rate out of negative territory even before asset purchases have been phased out. Given recent comments that seems increasingly likely, although it may not yet be announced in June, as Draghi and Co will be eager to move very gradual on policy normalization amid concerns that it could put undue pressure on peripherals.

RBNZ Rate Statement: RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75%, as expected. The statement by Governor Wheeler was similar to March, which was similar to February. Measured optimism remains in place, but with a recognition of ongoing uncertainties. Notably, Wheeler said developments since the February Monetary Policy Statement on balance are considered to be neutral for the stance of monetary policy. And a dovish bias was retained, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” In March he said “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly.” But with “numerous uncertainties” remaining, is possible that an easing bias will remain in place at the RBNZ. But absent any downside surprises, the Bank should hold steady through year end.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Rate Decision & Monetary Policy – No change to prevailing policy settings is widely anticipated. This will leave the focus on the minutes and the latest inflation report, which will likely feature the recent signs of accelerating economic activity after a relative soft patch in Q1, along with robust global growth.

UK Production Data – Industrial production data for March are also up today, which expected to improve to a -0.4% m/m figure after -0.7% in February. Trade data will be released at the same time.

US PPI & Unemployment Claims – PPI for April will highlight inflation developments from the producer side, and it is forecasted with gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for the headline and core, following a 0.1% overall decline in March and an unchanged reading on the ex-food and energy component. Unemployment Claims expected at 245K from 238K last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed overnight. Shares in Japan declined from a 17-month high amid a wealth of earnings reports today. Electronics and auto makers were under pressure as the Yen held gains and markets are taking stock after the recent rally. The Nikkei is down -0.54%, the Hang Seng managed a marginal 0.9% gain as stocks mainland markets moved higher, and the CSI 300 gained 0.63%, while the ASX was down -0.71%. U.S. futures are also heading south, while the FTSE 100 future is little changed. Yesterday’s BoE report may have hinted that markets are underestimating the BoE’s willingness to tighten policy, but with investors focusing on warnings of challenges for households and not buying into the assumption of a smooth Brexit Sterling declined and yields slipped while the FTSE 100 managed to outperform Eurozone markets. Today’s calendar has German GDP and inflation data at the start of the session as well as EMU production data.

U.S. reports: revealed a hot round of April PPI gains after yesterday’s firm trade price data and a surprisingly low 236k initial claims figure at the start of May that further solidifies Fed tightening expectations for June. For PPI, the expected big 0.5% goods price rise accompanied a solid 0.4% service price increase to leave a pop in the y/y rise to 2.5%, though gasoline price declines in early May should allow a 0.2% headline drop this month that leaves a drop-back in the y/y climb to a still-firm 2.1%. Claims tightness signals upside risk for our 195k May payroll estimate, alongside upside risk from firm consumer, producer, and small business confidence, a solid 237k average monthly ADP rise thus far in 2017, and a likely vehicle sales and assembly bounce in Q2 that accompanies a GDP growth bounce to 3.2%, after weak Q1 performances for both.

The BoE did the expected and kept policy unchanged, leaving the repo rate at 0.25% and QE totals unaltered (GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases, GBP 10 bln for corporate bonds). As last time, one member voted for an immediate hike in Bank Rate, and the updated Inflation Report noted that for some it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects for activity or inflation to vote for a hike. Its 2017 growth forecast was trimmed to 1.9% from 2.0%, though the central bank’s projections for 2018 and 2019 were both upwardly nudged by 0.1 of a percentage point. At the same time the bank noted that the centrals scenarios of the May inflation report suggest that monetary policy could need to be tightened by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than the very gently rising path implied by the market yield curve. However, the underlying assumption is a smooth Brexit transition to the new trading arrangements with the EU and that is a big if markets obviously disagree with. Markets though focused on the downside risks and didn’t buy into the assumption of a smooth Brexit transition so Sterling dropped and Gilt futures recovered losses on the back of the report.

Germany: Q1 GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% q/q in the first quarter of the year, from 0.4% q/q in Q4 last year and in line with expectations. The stats office reported that both domestic and external demand underpinned the quarterly growth rate and highlighted in particular that investment growth strengthened. Consumption growth was modest meanwhile and net exports improved. The annual rate rose 2.9% y/y. German Apr HICP confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The acceleration from just 1.5% y/y in March, was largely explained by the Easter effect, which lifted holiday related prices in April this year, rather than March as in 2016. All in all, pretty much as expected and confirming that the German recovery remains on track.

Main Macro Events Today

US CPI – April CPI is projected to rebound 0.2% for both the headline and the core, following respective declines of 0.3% and 0.1% in March. Weakness in energy prices was a major reason for the March declines and that should turn around for the April data.

US Retail Sales – Retail sales are seen bouncing 0.5% after dropping 0.3% in March, while the ex-auto figure should rise 0.4% after the 0.2% gain previously.

Fedspeak – FOMC Member Evans goes to Dublin to speak on economic conditions and monetary policy, while Harker speaks at Drexel University.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th May 2017.

FX News Today

It was a swing and a miss on U.S. CPI Friday, following Thursday’s below forecast PPI report. Headline retail sales also undershot estimates, though upward revisions to February and March improved the complexion of that report. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment continued to beat expectations to extend the gap between “soft” and “hard” data. The data resulted in modest lessening in the risk of a Fed tightening next month, though the probability is still over 70%. Yet, the chances for another hike in September were trimmed to about 40% from around 50-50 previously.

United States: Despite the weakness in some of the recent U.S. reports, data are still consistent with a rebound in Q2 GDP after a sluggish 0.7% clip for Q1, and upcoming reports on manufacturing, production, and housing should burnish that relatively bullish outlook. Specifically, the economic calendar is a fairly limited this week with a smattering of housing, production, Philly Fed, claims and LEI data on tap. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound (Monday) to 9.0 in May from 5.2 in April. Housing starts should increase to a 1,260k pace in April from 1,215 in March (Tuesday), though risk is downward as construction employment slips in May. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% (Tuesday) in April from 0.5% in March, while capacity utilization may increase to 76.3% from 76.1%. MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday) will have to account for the swings in yields between the uptick in PPI and slump in CPI the week prior, while EIA energy inventories are on tap as well. Data rounds out (Thursday) with a rash release, including the Philly Fed index seen slipping to 20.0 for May from 22.0. Initial jobless claims may rebound 5k to 241k for the May 13 week and leading indicators are forecast to rise 0.2% in April vs 0.4% in March.

Canada: In Canada, the end of the week brings March retail sales (Friday) and April CPI (Friday). The lead up to those key releases is rather less exciting, with a choppy calendar that has March manufacturing (Wednesday) and April existing home sales (Monday). Total CPI expected to rise 0.5% in April, driven by the run-up in gasoline prices, after the 0.2% gain (m/m, nsa) in March. The CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.8% growth rate in April on an annual comparable basis from the 1.6% y/y pace in March. Retail sales are expected to bounce 1.0% m/m in March after the 0.6% drop in February. The ex-autos aggregate is seen improving 0.7% on the heels of the 0.1% dip in February. Manufacturing shipments are projected to recover 1.0% m/m in March after the 0.2% decline in February. The international transactions in securities for March will be released Thursday. The Bank of Canada is silent this week. Next week sees the rate announcement (May 24), which is expected to result in no change to the current 0.50% rate setting or the cautiously constructive outlook on growth and inflation that backs our projection for no change in rates through year-end.

Europe: Political risk has receded with Macron’s election victory, and while this is unlikely to be the last challenge to the unity of the Eurozone or the EU, it paves the way for Draghi to move to a neutral stance on rates at the June meeting. ECB speak from Draghi (Thursday), Constancio, Praet and others will likely confirm this, but also stress once again that the Eurozone still needs substantial monetary support and the current QE schedule will be implemented as planned. The data highlight this week is German ZEW Investor Confidence (Tuesday), which is seen increasing to 21.0 from 19.5 reflecting reduced political uncertainty, improving growth and rising stock markets. Other data are mainly backward-looking. Eurozone Q1 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number. March trade data (also Tuesday), will add background information amid the lack of a full breakdown. Meanwhile final April EMU HICP (Wednesday) should confirm the headline rate at 1.9% y/y and core at 1.2% y/y. The data calendar also includes Eurozone current account and balance of payment numbers for March, as well as German producer price inflation for April. Supply comes from Germany, which will issue 30 year Bunds on Wednesday. Spain and France follow with bond auctions on Thursday.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by April inflation data (Tuesday), labor market figures covering March and April (Wednesday), and the official retail sales report for April (Thursday). CPI expected to spike to a new cycle high of 2.6% y/y from the 2.3% print seen in the month prior. The 15%-odd y/y decline in sterling and the approximate 10% gain in the y/y oil price comparison underpins this forecast. The BoE last week in its quarterly inflation report said that CPI should come back down to its 2.0% target over the next year, and highlighted the disinflationary effects of recent currency gains. As for the labour data, the March ILO unemployment rate anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.7%. In-line data shouldn’t have too much impact on sterling.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicks off on Monday with April PPI, which expected to rise to 1.6% y/y from 1.4% previously. The March tertiary industry index (Tuesday) should fall 0.1% m/m versus the 0.2% increase in February. Revised March industrial production is also due Tuesday. March machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at up 5.0% m/m versus the 1.5% rise seen previously. Preliminary Q1 GDP (Thursday) should rise 1.6% q/q as compared to the 1.2% increase in Q4.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is headlined by the employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 15.0k job gain in April after the 60.9k surge in March. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.9%, matching the 5.9% in March. The wage price index for Q1 (Wednesday) is projected to expand 0.4% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q4. That would leave the annual growth rate at 1.8% versus the 1.9% pace in Q4 and Q3 that were the slowest since the great recession. The measure peaked at a 4.3% y/y growth rate in Q2 of 2008.The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting will be released on Tuesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has both Q1 PPI input and Q1 PPI output will be released on Tuesday. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week. Last week saw the Bank hold rates steady at 1.75%, as expected, but leave a dovish tone in place amid the “numerous uncertainties” that remain. A somewhat more balanced outlook was anticipated from the Bank.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets continue to eye record highs, S&P 500,, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE 100, Korea’s Kospi and Tawain’s Tatex as well as the MSCI World Index all reached record highs this week and Japan’s Topix is also higher on the day and eyeing the 20000 mark. The DAX, which managed to close above 12800 could open slightly down, while FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, while U.S. futures are moving sideways. The move higher is slowed by bouts of profit taking, but France’s election result and confidence that central banks will continue to keep an eye on markets and step in if necessary seems to be underpinning global stock market confidence for now. Against that background core yields are moving higher and for now at least improved sentiment is keeping Eurozone spreads narrow, even if the ECB is heading for a change in the forward guidance. German ZEW investor confidence today is expected to have improved again and the calendar also includes inflation data from the U.K. as well as the second reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP and.

FX Update: The euro has continued to drift upward, with EURUSD logging a nine-day high at 1.0987 just ahead of the London interbank open and EURJPY clocking a fresh one-year peak just shy of the 125.00 level. A combo of a risk-on backdrop and a sizable reduction in existential political risks in the Eurozone, post French election, now that last week’s “on-the-fact” profit taking phase has come and gone, have been both weighing on the yen and underpinning the euro. Last week’s sub-forecast U.S inflation data has also been in the mix, denting appetite for long dollar positions. EURGBP is trading in three-week high terrain, while Cable has nestled slightly above 1.2900. with the market looking to be lacking the impetus for a challenge of last week’s seven-month peak at 1.2990. USDCAD has remained heavy following the strong rally in oil prices yesterday. The pair is presently in the low 1.36s, just above yesterday’s 18-day low at 1.3601.

U.S. reports: The Empire State headline fell to a 7-month low of -1.0 from 5.2 in April, 16.4 in March, and a 29-month high of 18.7 in February. The ISM-adjusted Empire State fell to a 4-month low of 52.2 from a 6-year high of 55.2 in both March and April, and 54.5 in February. The May headline drop reflected declines in every component, after big April drops for orders and the workweek, as the sentiment indexes continue to give back some of their early-2017 premium, as also underway with consumer confidence and small business optimism. Strength has been contained to the goods sector given restraint in payrolls, retail sales and GDP as the economy faces a weak global economy, a strong dollar, and a pattern of seasonal Q1 weakness.

France’s Macron picks centre-right Prime Minister. The newly inaugurated French President Macron picked Republican Party’s Edouard Philippe as his Prime Minister in a move that looks like an attempt to broaden his base ahead of the legislative elections in June. Philippe has been the mayor of Le Havre since 2010 and the two will need a majority or at least enough seats in parliament to form a coalition to push through his reform agenda. The economy is looking in better shape than a long time, but the reform backlog means unemployment remains high and France is also struggling to cope with a deficit that continues to exceed the 3% limit.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – Improvement in German ZEW Investor confidence is expected today to 21.0 in May from 19.5 in April – reflecting reduced political uncertainty, improving growth and rising stock markets. Forward looking indicators continue to underpin expectations for a broadening and strengthening of the recovery.

UK Inflation Data – CPI expected to spike to a new cycle high of 2.6% y/y from the 2.3% print seen in the month prior. The 15%-odd y/y decline in sterling and the approximate 10% gain in the y/y oil price comparison underpins this forecast.

EU GDP – Eurozone Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number.

US Housing Starts & industrial production – Housing starts should increase to a 1,260k pace in April from 1,215 in March, though risk is downward as construction employment slips in May. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south after a mixed closed on Wall Street. “Trump anxiety” is blamed for falling risk appetite, while a stronger Yen weighed on Japanese exporters. Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong as railway and construction companies were under pressure following an infrastructure summit. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also under pressure, pointing to a correction in the FTSE 100, which outperformed yesterday with a 0.91% gain and a close above 7500. The DAX moved sideways at high levels amid bouts of profit taking but managed to close above 12800. Gilt futures recovered losses as safe haven demand picked up again and Bund futures, which closed marginally in the red moved higher in after hour trade, which against the pressure on stock markets points to early gains and a dip in yields. The European calendar has U.K. labour market data and the final reading of Eurozone inflation numbers for April.

FX Update: The dollar is trading softer against most currencies, particularly the yen with USDJPY dropping quite sharply, from levels above 113.50 yesterday to a 12-day low today in Tokyo at 112.34. The narrow USD index has fallen for fourth consecutive session, making its lowest levels since last November’s presidential election. EURUSD rose to a fresh six-month high of 1.1116. Concerns about the about the pro-Trump growth agenda have weighed on the dollar. First the Senate Majority Leader McConnell appeared to downplay aspects of the plans for revenue-neutral tax cuts, Dodd-Frank rollback, among other things, and later news erupted about an alleged existence of a potentially Trump-damaging memo written by ex-FBI director Comey. This rattled Wall Street and led to a mostly negative session across equity bourses in Asia, which in turn let to yen outperformance as market participants sought safe havens.

U.S. reports: revealed a robust industrial production report that left good news for the day on net, though we saw disappointing housing starts data with annual revisions that lowered the recent trajectory. For factories, we saw a 1.0% April industrial production surge with gains spread across the manufacturing, mining and utility components, and we expect a robust 6% headline growth clip in Q2 led by mining and utilities. For housing, we saw April drops of 2.6% for starts, 2.5% for permits, and 8.6% for completions.

UK April CPI came in perkier than expected in rising to a new cycle high of 2.7% y/y, the highest rate since 2013 and up from 2.3% y/y in March. The core CPI reading came at 2.4% y/y from 1.8% in the previous month. PPI input prices unwound some, dipping to 16.6% y/y from 17.4% y/y in March, itself downwardly revised from 17.9%. Cable has U-turned sharply lower, to a low so far of 1.2865, following a short-lived rally to 1.2958 seen at the prompt of a perkier than expected UK CPI. German ZEW investor confidence rose to 20.6, slightly below expectations, but still up from 19.5 in the previous month. Eurozone Q1 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.5% q/q, in line with the preliminary number and unchanged from Q4 last year. The outcome of the French Presidential election continues to underpin an improved assessment of global political risks, while a fresh rise in German ZEW investor confidence underpinned hopes of stronger growth ahead, even as Eurozone Q1 GDP numbers show a still uneven recovery. The fact that the ECB has signaled a very gradual move towards policy normalization meanwhile is helping to keep Eurozone spreads in. In the U.K. April inflation data came in higher than expected, but still fitted the BoE’s inflation outlook.

Main Macro Events Today

U.K. Labour Data – March ILO unemployment rate anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.7%. In-line data shouldn’t have too much impact on sterling. The Claimant Count Change expected to fall 7.5K from 25.5K last month.

EMU Final April HICP – The final April EMU HICP should confirm the headline rate at 1.9% y/y and core at 1.2% y/y. The pronounced up and down over the March/April period was impacted by the later timing of Easter.

EIA Inventories – EIA Crude Oil Stock Change is on tap as well and an improvement is expected at -2.283M from -5.247M last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global sell off in equities continued overnight in Asia. Concern over the problems of the Trump administration has been hitting markets hard and Nikkei and ASX lost more than 1%, after a sharp sell off on Wall Street yesterday. Stronger than expected GDP numbers out of Japan failed to lift sentiment. European markets also closed firmly in the red yesterday, with Eurozone peripherals underperforming as risk aversion spiked higher. The FTSE 100 managed to outperform, but also closed with a 0.25% loss and U.K. futures are heading south, even as U.S. futures are managing to move higher. The good news for Draghi and Co is that Eurozone spreads didn’t widen today and that at least so far the spike in risk aversion hasn’t hit peripherals, but increased volatility, will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB, who want to tread very carefully as the ECB inches towards exit steps. Today’s calendar has French unemployment, U.K. retail sales and the ECB minutes of the last policy meeting.

FX Update: The dollar steadied after posting fresh lows as the “Trump trade” unwind continued after the New York close. The main equity indices in Asia fell, taking their cue from Wall Street amid concerns that the Trump growth agenda is in jeopardy. USDJPY losses extended for a second day. A three-week low was made at 110.52 in early Asia-Pacific dealings, with the pair subsequently managing to settle back above 111.00. EURJPY reversed recent gains as the yen outperformed, dropping quite sharply to a low of 123.42, putting in some distance from the two-year high the cross saw on Tuesday. The drop-in EURJPY reflects yen outperformance as the Japanese safe haven premium rises, while EURUSD logged a fresh six-month peak amid dollar outperformance. The high was at 1.1171, with the pair subsequently settling in the lower 1.11s.

UK unemployment dipped to a new 12-year low of 4.6%, which was unexpected as the median forecast had been for an unchanged 4.7% reading for official March data. Average incomes were less encouraging, but now below inflation, which in the latest numbers for April rose to 2.7%. The BoE said in its quarterly inflation report last week that it expected wage growth to turn positive again, though on the proviso that the Brexit process goes smoothly.

Eurozone April HICP inflation confirmed at 1.9% y/y as expected. The annual rate bounced back in April, after falling to just 1.5% y/y in March, from 2.0% y/y in February. The zigzag course over the March/April period was mainly due to the Easter effect. This also impacted core inflation, which rose to 1.2% y/y from 0.7% y/y in the previous month. Inflation is trending higher as growth strengthens, but less than April numbers suggest as wage growth remains moderate, despite the improving situation on the labour market. Wage moderation in Germany in particular seems puzzling given that the German jobless rate is at record lows and with that in mind the ECB is unlikely to do much more than remove the easing bias in June. Indeed, a stronger EUR and lower oil prices could in fact bring a downward revision to inflation projections with the updated forecasts next month.

Main Macro Events Today

U.K. Retail Sales – Retail sales are seen bouncing 1.0 % after dropping -1.8% in March, while the ex-Fuel figure should rise 1.0% after the disappointing -1.5% previously.

ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts have be scheduled for 11:30 GMT today, while President Draghi is due to speak at the University of Tel Aviv at 17:00 GMT.

US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may rebound 4k to 240k for the May 13 week and leading indicators are forecast to rise 0.2% in April vs 0.4% in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th May 2017.

[IMGhttps://goo.gl/AomuJR[/IMG]

FX News Today

European Outlook: Equity markets started to improve and Wall Street managed to close in positive territory, as “Trump anxiety” eased somewhat. Markets were still mixed in Asia overnight, with Hang Seng and Nikkei posting slight gains, while CSI and ASX are slightly in the red. FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are moving higher though and it seems European markets may manage to claw back some of the losses seen over the last couple of days as investors put aside the turmoil in the Trump administration. Bund futures already started to come off highs during the PM and after hour session yesterday and with risk aversion unwinding Eurozone peripherals could outperform today and Eurozone spreads come in. ECB officials will be keeping a close eye on spreads and the impact of political uncertainty as comments from ECB officials show differing opinions on the speed with which the ECB should communicate the exit steps expected for next year. Data releases include German PPI numbers at the start of the session as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey for May, followed by EMU consumer confidence in the afternoon.

US Data: Revealed a surprisingly tight 232k claims reading for the May BLS survey week and a hefty May Philly Fed surge to 38.8 that nearly reached the 33-year high of 43.3 seen in February, alongside a 0.3% leading indicators rise that left an eighth consecutive gain, and an uptick in the Bloomberg consumer comfort index to a lofty 50.2. The employment components of the Philly Fed survey diverged around high levels, leaving upside risk from both this survey and the claims data for our 195k May nonfarm payroll estimate. The solid path for the monthly indicators into Q2, alongside room for an inventory updraft into the second half of 2017 after the big Q1 setback bodes well for GDP, where we expect a growth bounce to 3.2% after a Q1 boost to 0.8% from 0.7%, alongside a robust 6% Q2 clip for industrial production after a 1.8% Q1 pace.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin believes 3% GDP or better is achievable, in his first testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The acceleration in growth is possible “if we make historic reforms to both taxes and regulation.” The top U.S. priorities he noted are tax overhaul, housing finance and regulatory reforms, and combating terrorist financing.” And he added we are “committed to rethinking our foreign agreements and trading practices to ensure they are both free and fair to American businesses and workers” (remember earlier today USTR Ross notified Congress that the administration is triggering Nafta negotiations). On taxes, Mnuchin repeated that the objective of tax reform is for a cut for middle income earners. Meanwhile, House Leader Ryan attempted to get back on message about tax and regulatory reform, while expressing support for an independent special counsel to “follow where the facts lead” on the Russian probe. Later a video emerged that seemed to back up the White House’s assertion over Comey and let the president off the hook. Cable lost over 100 pips as the USD recovered.

Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Mester expects further Fed hikes will be necessary if the economy evolves as expected, while delaying hikes too long would risk a recession. She’s also comfortable with altering the Fed’s balance sheet policy later this year and once that plan is decided the Fed should stick to it and use rates to respond to the economy. This is totally in character and in keeping with the hawkish non-voter’s track record and prior remarks.

Main Macro Events Today

CAD Retail Sales – Canadian retail Sales are expected to gain 0.5% in March retail after the 0.6% pull-back in February. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen improving 0.3% in March following the 0.1% dip in February. Gasoline prices dipped 1.1% m/m in March after the 4.9% plunge in February, according to the CPI.

Canada CPI Inflation is expected to expand 0.6% in April versus March after the 0.2% m/m gain in March. Gasoline prices were stronger, shooting 7% higher in April compared to March (average monthly basis). Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.8% y/y pace in April from the 1.6% pace in March. The trimmed mean CPI slowed to a 1.4% y/y pace in March from a revised 1.5% rate (was 1.6%) in February. The CPI common grew at a 1.3% y/y rate in March, matching the 1.3% clip in February. The CPI median grew 1.7% y/y following the revised 1.8% (was 1.9%) rate in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22th May 2017.

FX News Today

It was a little over eight years ago when then Fed chief Bernanke said he saw signs of “green shoots” of recovery from the Great Recession and financial crisis of 2007-2008. But they didn’t really blossom as annual GDP growth has averaged only 2.1% in the U.S., and even less in OECD countries. Despite the fears that the political tumult since Brexit would be a major headwind to growth, recent data reveal an increasingly upbeat outlook, where the rise in optimism finally could be bearing fruit

United States: Trading in the U.S. was choppy last week as political uncertainties dominated. This week, the markets will be closely following President Trump’s first overseas trip as leader of the free world as he visits Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy (for a G7 summit), the Vatican, and Belgium (for a NATO summit). Despite political uncertainties, we have some US data out this week. The data calendar is light and none of the releases will be really crucial to the outlook. The week’s highlights are home sales and home prices, durable goods, consumer sentiment, and the second look at Q1 GDP. New home sales (Tuesday) are expected to drop 4.2% in April to a 595k unit pace. Sales have been up all year so far. April existing home sales (Wednesday) are projected to fall 0.5% to a 5.680 mln clip. Durable orders (Friday) are seen dropping 1.0%, erasing the 0.9% March increase, and ending a string of three straight monthly gains. The final reading on May consumer confidence from the University of Michigan survey (Friday) is seen unchanged at 97.7. Q1 GDP (Friday) is expected to be revised down to a 0.5% rate of growth from the 0.7% Advance report. Other data this week includes April Chicago Fed national activity index for April (Monday), the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday), the flash May Markit PMI (Wednesday), the FHFA home price index (Wednesday), the KC Fed manufacturing index (Thursday), the advance economic indicators (Thursday), jobless claims (Thursday), and the flash May Markit services index.

Canada: Canada’s markets are closed Monday for the Victoria Day holiday. The Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday) is the main event this week. No change in the 0.50% rate setting expected, alongside a maintenance of a cautiously constructive outlook on growth and inflation that is consistent with no change in rates until next year. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are projected to improve 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February. Average weekly earnings for March and the May CFIB small and medium business sentiment survey are both due Thursday. BoC Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc speaks on Thursday, with the remarks published on the BoC’s website at 11:45 ET

Europe: That there are diverging opinions on the ECB’s Governing Council is nothing new. But so far at least the Executive Board has been united in its defense of the central bank’s still very accommodative policy and the insurance policy that the implicit easing bias still provides. However, with confidence indicators showing a more robust economy, labor markets improving, and political risks receding, it seems the discussion about how much gradualism will be needed for the ECB’s path to exit steps has reached the Executive Board. Praet and Coeure as well as ECB President Draghi are all scheduled to speak during the week and it will be interesting to see whether the two “opponents” will continue their public voicing of opinion and if Draghi will take sides ahead of the June meeting. What is clear is that the discussion is ongoing and political events and market volatility will likely be equally important in the end as confidence data and against that background this week’s round of German Ifo and PMI readings (both Tuesday) will be watched carefully. The manufacturing PMI seen at 56.6 slightly down from the 56.7 in the previous month and the services PMI at 56.5 down from 56.4 in April. The German Ifo Business Climate, meanwhile is expected to nudge slightly higher to 113.1 from 112.9, with both expectations and current conditions indicators likely to improve.

UK: Incoming data for April and May have been consistent with growth rebounding from a weak patch in Q1, highlighting that Brexit uncertainties haven’t been taking the economic toll feared. The calendar this week brings government borrowing for April (Tuesday), the May edition of the CBI distributive sales survey (also Tuesday), and the second estimate of the Q1 GDP report. The headline realized sales reading of the CBI survey expected to dip to 32 from 44 in the previous month. The GDP data expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y.

Japan: In Japan, the March all-industry index (Tuesday) is forecast at -0.7% m/m, reversing the 0.7% rise in February. CPI figures (Thursday) should show national prices at a 0.2% y/y rate overall in April, unchanged from March, while core prices should be steady at 0.2% y/y versus February. May Tokyo CPI is expected to drop to a -0.1% y/y clip overall, and -0.1% y/y core, both unchanged compared to April. April services PPI (Thursday) are estimated rising at a 0.8% y/y pace, unchanged from March.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is thin this week, with Q1 construction work done (Wednesday) one of the few economic report due. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle has a busy week. He presents a speech titled ” How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Basis” at the BIS Symposium: CIP – RIP? on Tuesday. Debelle delivers opening remarks and participates in a panel at the Launch of the FX Global Code in London (Thursday). The RBA’s Head of Payments Policy participates in a panel at the Australian Retail Banking Summit (Friday).

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the April trade report (Wednesday), expected to reveal a narrowing in the surplus to NZ$250 mln from NZ$332 mln in March. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler speaks in Hamilton (Wednesday) but the event is not public.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.