Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 28th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan outperforming and managing a marginal gain. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong are heading for the biggest monthly advance since August, but after hopes of a “phenomenal” tax package from Trump helped to push markets higher earlier in the month, investors remain cautious ahead of Trump’s speech in Congress today. The Nikkei closed with marginal gains today, after moving down from earlier highs as the Yen strengthened. U.K. stock futures are rising, but U.S. futures are slightly in the red. Oil prices are up and the front-end Oil is trading at USD 54.16 per barrel. The European calendar today has French and Italian inflation data for February, French consumer spending and Q4 GDP, as well as the Swiss KOF.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan is confident that U.S. economic growth will be higher than 2% in 2017, while monetary policy is currently “highly accommodative” and the Fed should start removing that accommodation slowly. He noted that even by raising rates a “few times” this year would leave that policy stance accommodative and the Fed should hike sooner than later. Kaplan also believes the U.S. can go “a little deeper” in reducing the jobless rate before creating price pressures. This is about par for the course from moderate voter and won’t really move the needle on the policy outlook, though March remains a “live” meeting. Furthermore, he said there’s not a question that low rates are distorting. But, he still expects low rate to prevail for a long time and even cautioned that ramping up too quickly causes distortions too. And he reiterated that when the Fed normalizes rates, the surprise could be that it does so at a lower rate than has historically been the case. Indeed, he thinks the neutral rate might be in the 2.25% to 2.5% area.

US reports: U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 1.8% in January, stronger than expected. The firm 1.8% US durable orders rise reflected a 6.0% pop for transportation orders despite declines for Boeing orders and vehicle assemblies, as reversed the opposite divergence in December, alongside a 0.2% decline in orders ex-transportation that matched assumptions. We saw a firm round of equipment data but lean shipments and inventories, and the mix modestly lifted both Q4 and Q1 growth prospects. Pending home sales index drops 2.8% to 106.4 in January after rebounding 0.8% to 109.5 in December, which followed November’s 1.3% tumble to 108.6. It’s the lowest level in a year. But, contract signings are up 2.7% y/y versus December’s -2.0% rate. Declines in the West (-10.3%) and Midwest (-5.2%) paced the weakness and offset small gains in the Northeast (2.2%) and South (0.5%). The National Association of Realtors said insufficient supply are making for a lull in pending home sales, while worries over rising mortgage rates, as well as declining home affordability (particularly in the West) could be impacting too.

Main Macro Events Today

US President – US President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address to Congress.

US GDP – The second release on US Q4 GDP is out today and we expect to see the headline revised up to 2.2% from 1.9% in the first release and 3.5% in Q3 of last year. Upward revisions should be broad based but we expect the major drives to be an $11 bln upward revision to consumption and a $6 bln upward revision to inventories.

US Consumer Confidence – February consumer confidence will be out and should reveal a headline increase to 112.0 from 111.8 in January and 113.3 in December. Other measures of confidence have been mixed on the month with Michigan Sentiment dipping to 96.3 from 98.5 in January.

CAD IPPI – Industrial product price index (IPPI) expected to expand 0.5% m/m in January after the 0.4% gain in December. Gasoline prices were sharply higher in January, commodity prices were modestly firmer but the loonie was stronger against the U.S. dollar. The IPPI is expected to post a 2.4% y/y rate of increase in January after the 2.2% y/y gain in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 01st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 01st March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved mostly higher in Asia overnight, with Japan leading and posting the biggest gain in two weeks, as the Yen dipped following hawkish comments from Fed officials, which have boosted speculation of a March rate hike. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher. Trump’s eagerly awaited speech in Congress yesterday was short of details, but his first address to Congress seemed to convey a softer tone, designed to win over the political center. Stock markets seem to react in a positive way, but Japan aside any gains in Asia were muted as investors eye the Fed. The European calendar has German labour market and inflation data today, with the latter likely to bring the German headline rate above the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. Final manufacturing PMI readings are not expected to bring major surprises and confirm preliminary numbers. The U.K. has BoE lending data as well as the CIPS manufacturing PMI, which is expected to fall back to 55.5 from 55.9 in the previous month.

Fedspeak: SF Fed’s Williams said a March hike is very much on the table and should get “serious consideration.” The economy has made enormous progress and he’s confident that the economy will continue to continue growing at a healthy pace. “We’re very close to achieving our dual mandate goals. Yet monetary policy essentially still has the pedal to the metal,” and he thinks it’s time to start ease off the gas to avoid a “too hot” economy. Nationally, we’ve hit full employment, he said, but we’re still moving toward the 2% inflation goal. Williams, a non-voter this year, was one of the more dovish on the Committee, but he shifted to a more hawkish stance earlier last year.

US reports: revealed a disappointing 1.9% Q4 GDP growth clip, and the weak January trade and inventory data in the advance indictor report prompted a downward bump to our Q1 GDP estimate to 2.0% from 2.2%. Also, February consumer confidence pop to 114.8 that left the highest reading since July of 2001, and the GDP report included upward income revisions that will also raise consumption prospects into 2017. The producer sentiment climb is proving particularly intense, with a February Chicago PMI surge to a 2-year high of 57.4 that likely reflects an estimated 5% February vehicle assembly rate bounce. The Richmond Fed surged to an 11-month high of 17.0 from 12.0 in January with strength in the jobs components, and the ISM-adjusted measure surged to a 7-year high of 57.6 from 54.8 in January.

Main Macro Events Today

German Inflation – German headline HICP inflation is expected to top the ECB’s upper limit for price stability and rise to 2.1% y/y with the preliminary February reading, from 1.9% y/y in January. . If German number comes in as expected, the Eurozone headline rate will likely pick up to at least 1.9% thus adding to pressure on Draghi ahead of next week’s council meeting.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI – February ISM manufacturing index expected to slide to 55.5 after rising 1.5 points to 56.0 in January, the best reading since November 2014.

CAN. Interest Rate Decision – BoC’s rate announcement is the main event today. No change to the current 0.50% rate setting is projected. The announcement stands alone, with a lack of press conference or Monetary Policy Report to fine tune.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as investors continue to celebrate Trump’s speech in Congress, which was short on details, but struck a more cautious tone and managed to revive risk aversion. The ASX outperformed and closed with a 1.3% gain, while the Nikkei was up 0.9% at the close. FTSE 100 and DAX managed to close above key levels of 7300 and 12000 respectively, but U.K. and U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, indicating that at these high levels investors are starting to get cautious again and may want to see more details from Trump, especially as the Fed is eying a March rate hike and the combination of strong growth and rising inflation is putting pressure on Draghi in Europe. Today’s preliminary Eurozone HICP could well hit 2.0%, after stronger than expected German numbers yesterday. The calendar also has Swiss Q4 GDP, German import prices, and Eurozone PPI and labour market data.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan reiterated the view that rates should rise in a gradual way, a process the Fed should begin to stay ahead of inflation heating up and avoiding the need to hike rates dramatically. He views economic growth as sluggish by historical standards, but relatively healthy given demographics. Kaplan is taking part in a moderated Q&A session that should soon be drowned out by the Beige Book. There is nothing new in these pronouncements so far to provide any insight into timing of the next hike, as March odds improve.

US income report: revealed a 0.4% January income rise that beat assumptions after expected boosts in the Q3 and Q4 figures. Yet, we also saw a lean 0.2% consumption rise with a 0.3% “real” drop that undershot estimates after big boosts in Q4 to leave a disappointing report. The U.S. ISM rose to a 30-month high of 57.7 from 56.0 in January and 54.5 in December, as the index continues to climb from the 47.9 expansion-low in December of 2015 toward the 60.0 cycle-high in February of 2011. Yesterday’s ISM report adds to the upside risk for our 210k February nonfarm payroll estimate, though the employment component fell to 54.2 from a 29-month high of 56.1. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys to rise to the same 56 cycle-high previously seen in February and March of 2011, versus 54 in January, 53 in December, 52 in November, 51 in October and 50 in 4 of the 5 months through September. A factory sector rebound that is lifting sentiment, consumer confidence and small business optimism in the face of rising oil prices, a reversal in the inventory headwind, and hopes for deregulation and fiscal stimulus in 2017, might be consider as a possible scenario. The economy still faces lingering headwinds from a sluggish world economy and a strong dollar.

Canada: Bank of Canada Remains Attentive to Uncertainties. The Bank of Canada delivered the widely-expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting. The recent run of encouraging economic data was downplayed, with material excess capacity highlighted. There was little change from the cautiously constructive outlook in January, which in our view keeps a potential easing on table while maintaining the base case scenario for no change in rates for an extended period. Hence, the Bank maintained a focus on uncertainty to the outlook. while downplaying improvement in CPI and what is shaping up to be firmer growth in Q4 than they had anticipated. The bounce in January CPI was due to temporary factors while challenges still faced by exports apparently temper any optimism that would stem from an overshoot of their Q4 GDP projection of 1.5%. Also, employment gains may be evident, but wages and hours worked still reflect persistent slack in Canada. The announcement was a bit more focused on caution versus optimism than we had anticipated. But Poloz has been very dovish and repeatedly been burned on the emergence of the long-awaited recovery, so an abundance of caution is quite consistent with how the Bank has operated in recent years.

Main Macro Events Today

GBP Construction PMI – February PMI in Construction expected to be unchanged from 52.2 last time.

Euro Core CPI – Eurozone HICP inflation is set to reach 2.0% and thus hit the upper limit for price stability with today’s February release, after higher than expected German and Italian numbers this week. The German rate jumped to 2.2% y/y and while base effects from energy prices are the main reason for now, Bundesbank President Weidmann highlighted that inflation projections, should be revised considerably higher, not just for the Eurozone.

CAD GDP – Canadian GDP is expected to slide to 0.3% after rising 1.0% to 0.4% in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, after the Trump induced stock market rally started to run out of steam in Europe and the U.S. yesterday. The Topix fell for the first time in three days as the Yen advanced and investors turn cautious after pushing indices to very high levels and the prospect of tighter monetary policy comes back into focus. Electronics companies and banks retreated ahead of Yellen’s speech on the outlook for the economy to executives in Chicago today. In Hong Kong developers were hit by concerns of a March rate hikes. The Dow Jones still managed to close above 21000 yesterday, in Europe FTSE 100 and DAX held the 7300 and 12000 levels, but once again markets are reluctant to push things further at the current junction. Oil prices are slightly higher on the day, but still below USD 53 per barrel. The calendar has German and Eurozone retail sales, as well as the final reading of Italian Q4 GDP, but the focus is on the final round of Eurozone services PMIs as well as the U.K. services PMI.

Fedspeak: Fed governor Powell states: “we are as close to our mandate as we have been in a very long time, with a March hike “on the table” for discussion, with potential for 3 rate hikes this year as he’s indicated in the dots. In a CNBC interview, he doesn’t want to see the “animal spirits” get into the real economy as the outlook reaches a balanced state. He doesn’t see any excess in the credit markets or leverage per se, with solid economic momentum. Global growth risks are lower, with growth and inflation ticking higher, which is supportive of the outlook. Fiscal risks are also clearly upward, though awaiting details and not incorporated into his forecasts. We are very close to our 2% inflation target, which is a symmetric goal (neither above, nor below). Powell notes that shrinking balance sheet will take some time once rates are “well above” zero, done in a very predictable almost automatic way. He wouldn’t comment more specifically as the topic is currently under discussion at the Fed. Overall, he seems to be singing from the same hymn sheet as the others who’ve turned more hawkish of late.

US reports: 19k initial claims plunge to a 44-year low of 223k in the week of President’s Day leaves a super-tight level of claims over the seven weeks since the period of winter holiday volatility ended. Claims are averaging just 234k in February, versus prior averages of 247k in January, 258k in December and 252k in November. The 242k February BLS survey week reading sits at the low end of recent BLS readings of 237k in January, 275k in December, and 233k in November. The last time claims were as tight as yesterday’s figure was the 222k reading in March of 1973, when covered employment was just 56.4 mln, or 41% of the recent 138.9 mln.

Canada: Better than expected Q4 GDP and December GDP was taken in stride, given the dark view of recent upbeat data advanced by the BoC in Wednesday’s announcement. The loonie lost further ground amid widening Canada-U.S. yield spreads and a more than $1 pull-back in the price of crude oil. Canada’s Q4 GDP growth was driven by net exports and consumption. Consumption spending barely slowed in Q4, running at 2.6% after the revised 2.7% pace in Q3. Consumption added 1.9% to Q4 GDP after the 1.1% addition to Q3. But net exports were the engine of GDP growth, making a 5.2% contribution after the 1.2% add in Q3. Exports improved by only 1.3% in Q4 after the 9.4% bounce in Q3, while imports plunged 13.5% after a 4.8% gain. The imports decline was at least partly due to a one-time factor: the one time import of an oil module for an oil project in September left a big drop in October import values.

Japan: Japan’s core CPI grew 0.1% y/y in January, marking the first expansion since the 0.1% gain in December of 2015. The core CPI (which excludes perishables, but not gasoline) bottomed out with -0.5% y/y declines in July, August and September of 2016. Hence, the BoJ’s extraordinary accommodation has had some impact, but underlying inflation is still a long way from the 2% goal. Total CPI grew at a 0.4% y/y rate in January after the 0.3% pace in December. But the Tokyo core CPI saw a 0.3% y/y drop in February, matching the 0.3% y/y decline in January. Total Tokyo CPI fell 0.3% y/y after a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.0% in January from 3.1% in December. Household spending tumbled 1.2% y/y in January after the 0.3% decline in December. USDJPY has slipped to 114.21 from a 114.58 peak late in the North American session.

Main Macro Events Today

Fed’s Yellen – Fed Chair Yellen speaking at an event before the Executives Club of Chicago.

Fedspeak – Friday is a busy day for FOMC members, with the dovish voter Evans, Powell and hawkish non-voter Lacker speaking on a panel. Also, Fischer will discuss Fed policy decision-making at the Chicago Booth School’s annual policymaking forum.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI –February service sector producer sentiment is out today to close out the month’s series of reports. It is expected the headline to hold steady at 56.5 from last month. February producer sentiment has been very strong with increases in all the early month measures. This strength should allow the ISM-adjusted average of all releases to climb to a cycle high matching 56 from 54 in January and 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2017.

FX News Today

Joining the broadening chorus, Fed Chair Yellen confirmed on Friday, “At our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.” That’s about as close as you’ll get to Fed semaphore for “we are going to hike in March, unless something extraordinary thwarts us.” Of course, all eyes will now be riveted on Friday’s February jobs report, which would have to severely miss to prevent the FOMC from pulling the trigger on the 15th.

United States: The economic calendar gets down to brass tacks with the employment report, released with just a week to go before the March FOMC decision. As Yellen implied, we’re going to get a hike in March unless the data fail to move in line with expectations. A 215k February nonfarm payroll increase is expected to beat the 156k December headline, but to fall short of the 227k January rise, with a 220k private payroll gain. The report faces upside risk from rising producer sentiment and consumer confidence, 44-year lows in initial claims, a surging stock market, and a solid ADP surge. As for data, the rest of the week, January factory goods orders are forecast to rise 1.4% from 1.2% in January (Monday), while inventories may rise 0.2%. Risk is to the upside given stronger durables. The trade deficit is expected to expand in January (Tuesday) to -$49 bln, while consumer credit may increase to $20 bln in January as well. MBA mortgage market data is due (Wednesday) and the February ADP Employment report should post a solid 220k gain for the month, but below the January figure of 246k. Q4 productivity is set to be revised up to 1.5% (Wednesday) from 1.3%, while wholesale sales may bounce 0.8% and inventories sink 0.1%. Import prices may rise a mild 0.1% in February (Thursday) in part due to the firm dollar, though oil prices picked up last month, but export prices may sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 24k to 247k (Thursday) after marking 44-year lows last week. In addition to the employment report (Friday), the February Treasury budget gap may widen to -$195 bln.

Fedspeak: winds down for the blackout period ahead of the March 15 FOMC, but not before Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari discusses his favorite topic of “Too Big to Fail” (Monday) before the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Canada: There is plenty of economic data on offer this week in Canada, with the trade and jobs reports the highlight of a full calendar. The January trade balance (Tuesday) is expected to improve to C$1.0 bln from C$0.9 bln in December. A 20k gain in employment (Friday) is projected for February after the 48.3k rise in January, while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.8%. Housing starts (Wednesday) are anticipated to slow to a still firm 200k growth rate in February from 207.4k in January. Building permit values (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.0% in January after the 6.6% tumble in December. An 82.5% reading is projected for capacity utilization (Thursday) following 81.9% in Q3. Productivity growth is expected to moderate to a 0.3% pace (q/q, sa) following the unsustainable 1.2% surge in Q3. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to deliver a 0.2% m/m gain in January on the heels of the 0.1% rise in December. IVEY PMI for February is due Tuesday. While top tier economic data is abundant this week, Bank of Canada speakers are absent. The next scheduled appearance is from Deputy Governor Schembri on March 22nd, while we do not hear from Governor Poloz until March 28th.

Europe: After a robust round of Eurozone PMI numbers and especially the uptick in HICP inflation to 2.0%, the focus is on the ECB meeting (Thursday), which will also bring the updated set of staff projections. We don’t expect huge changes to the growth outlook, although better than anticipated PMI and Ifo numbers have lifted the chances of stronger than hoped Q1 GDP. Data releases this week are unlikely to change the outlook dramatically. German manufacturing orders will likely attract the most attention, as it is the only forward looking number in the calendar. Eurozone Q4 GDP, by contrast, is the most backward looking and expected to confirm growth rates of 0.4% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with preliminary numbers. The focus will likely be on the breakdown, which will be released for the first time, and should confirm that domestic demand and consumption remain the main drivers of the recovery. German and French production numbers for January are likely to bounce back from the contraction at the end of last year and we are looking for a rebound in German production of 3.0% m/m, after the -3.0% m/m decline in December, while French production is seen up 0.9% m/m.

UK: A bigger decline that had been widely anticipated in the UK’s PMI February surveys has painted a picture of a stagnating economy with businesses facing higher operating costs and slowing consumer demand. This comes with the start of negotiations to leave the EU now just around the corner, which we expect to quickly bring some contentious issues into the limelight (and risk of Scotland’s SNP making another attempt to break from the UK). The UK calendar this week starts with the BRC retail sales report for February (Monday), which will be of interest amid concerns that consumers are tightening their belts, and the Halifax house price report, also for February (Monday). The next data of note will be production figures for January at the tail end of the week (Friday), which expected to show industrial output dipping 0.4% m/m while rising 3.0% y/y.

Japan: The second look at Q4 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast improving to a 1.5% q/q pace from the initial 1.0%. Strong Q4 capex spending supports this view. The January current account surplus (Wednesday) likely narrowed to JPY 500.0 bln from 1,112.2 bln previously. The March MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is seen improving to 9.0 from 7.5 for the large manufacturers.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). No change is expected to the current 1.50% rate setting. Economic data is headlined by January retail sales (Monday), projected to improve 0.2% m/m after the 0.1% dip in December. Housing investment (Friday) is seen dipping 0.5% in January after the 0.4% gain in December. ANZ job ads (Monday) and the Melbourne Institute inflation measures (Monday) are also due.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has January building permits (Monday), Q4 manufacturing (Wednesday) and retail card spending (Friday). The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, Japan underperformed and the Nikkei closed with a -0.18% loss with investors remaining cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting and as markets price in a March rate hike. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, after European markets headed south yesterday and rising risk aversion saw Bund futures outperforming and Eurozone spreads widening. German manufacturing orders data at the start of the session are likely to continue to underpin Bund futures as the sharp rise in December is expected to be followed by a marked correction in January. The data calendar also has U.K. house price data from Halifax and detailed Q4 Eurozone GDP numbers.

US reports: The U.S. factory goods data undershot estimates thanks to a restrained 0.4% January nondurable rise for shipments and orders despite price gains, with a similarly lean 0.3% nondurable inventory rise after a big December boost. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, and equipment that still show a transportation-led orders gain with respectable equipment data, but with lean shipments and inventories. A boost in the Q1 GDP growth rate to 2.0% expected, from 1.9% with a $5 bln boost to factory inventories alongside a $2 bln hike for construction. More precisely, U.S. factory orders rose 1.2% in January after a 1.3% bounce in December and a 2.3% drop in November. The 1.8% jump in January durable orders was bumped up to 2.0%. Transportation orders rebounded 6.2% versus -4.3%. But excluding transportation, factory orders were unchanged from the prior 0.9% December gain. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dipped 0.1% from 0.8% previously. Shipments rose 0.2% after the 2.5% surge in December. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft slid 0.4% versus a prior 1.7% gain. Inventories edged up 0.2% from 0.3%. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.31.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 1.50%, matching widespread expectations. The statement by Governor Lowe was cautiously constructive on the outlook for growth and inflation. The outlook continues to be supported by low levels of interest rates, Lowe said. On the exchange rate, he said the depreciation since 2013 has assisted the transition in the economy following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate, he noted, would complicate that adjustment. Overall, the statement is consistent with an extended period of steady, accommodative policy lasting into 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

US Trade Balance – January trade data is out today and expected the deficit to jump 10.7% to -$49.0 bln from -$44.3 bln in December. Exports expected to be down 0.2% on the month with imports up 1.9%. The advance trade report had the goods and services deficit expanding to -$69.2 bln from -$64.4 bln in December.

Canadian IVEY PMI – IVEY PMI for February is anticipated to have a pickup in the seasonally adjusted measure to 58.0 from 57.2.

Canadian Trade – The January trade balance is expected to improve to C$1.0 bln from C$0.9 bln in December. The C$1.0 bln surplus in November ended a lengthy run of deficits. Crude oil prices were modestly higher in January, but natural gas prices dipped slightly, suggestive of a modest boost overall to energy export values. Exports are seen rising 1.0% m/m in January after the 0.8% gain. Imports are projected to increase 0.8% in January after the 1.0% rise in December. The risk around the trade report projection is elevated, as always. Canada’s economy appears to be on the mend, although the trade outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Core European bond yields remain under pressure, peripheral Eurozone markets are underperforming and equity markets are holding back as investors remain cautious going into Thursday’s ECB meeting, Friday’s U.S. jobs report ahead of the Fed decision next week. Much weaker than expected German manufacturing orders data on Tuesday have taken some pressure off Draghi to at least remove the reference to the possibility of further rate cuts from the forward guidance. QE remains in place for now and officials will remain adamant that the planned reduction in monthly purchase volumes from next month does not constitute “real tapering”, that is a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. That this will come next year is highly likely and widely expected, although with Eurozone elections and Brexit talks looming, we expect Draghi to keep his insurance policy in place for now and not move to real tapering before December, when the end of the current purchase program draws near. The calendar features Geman production and Swiss CPI data.

US reports: The U.S. trade deficit widened to a 5-year high of $48.5 bln from $44.3 bln in December and a 9-month high of $45.5 in November, with mostly upward revisions for both exports and imports of services that generally narrowed the gaps back through 2016. The deficit was $0.5 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report with upside surprises in both exports and imports, though we still peg Q1 GDP growth at 1.5% after a Q4 growth boost to 2.0% from 1.9%. The Q4 GDP growth boost should include a $2 bln downward bump for exports and a $1 bln boost for imports, alongside an already-signaled hike of $5 bln for inventories and $2 bln for construction.

Germany: German manufacturing orders were much weaker than expected, with the overall number falling -7.4% m/m in January, more than wiping out the 5.2% m/m rise in the previous month. Bundsbank data showed the three months’ trend rate slowing down to just 0.2% from 4.0% in the three months to December. The numbers contrast sharply with the robust round of confidence numbers for February and cast a shadow over the outlook, as they point to a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. More backing for the arguments of the doves at the ECB council for Thursday, who will want Draghi to confirm the easing bias and the ongoing QE schedule despite likely upward revisions to growth and inflation projections.

Canada: Canada’s Ivey PMI dipped to 55.0 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis from 57.2 in January. The employment index improved to 54.5 from 53.5, prices dropped to 61.1 from 70.1, supplier deliveries declined to 45.9 from 46.6 and inventories were 51.4 from 46.4. The Ivey PMI has been in expansionary territory since June of 2016 after the 49.4 seen in May of last year. Moreover, the six-month moving average improved to 58.0 in February from 57.5 in January and December, consistent with ongoing momentum in the economy. Also, the Ivey PMI improved to 55.1 in February on a not seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in January and 49.4 in December, consistent with the usual seasonal pattern and broadly supportive of our outlook for continued momentum in Canada’s economy during Q1. Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$0.807 bln in January, nearly as expected, but December was cut to a C$0.447 bln surplus in December from the C$0.9 bln initially reported. Export values grew 0.5%, driven by motor vehicles and canola oil shipments.

Japan: Japan GDP was revised slightly higher to a 1.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from the initial 1.0% pace. GDP grew at an identical 1.2% rate in Q3 after the 2.2% gain in Q2 and 1.9% clip in Q1. The revised Q4 growth rate fell short of projections. Consumption growth remained flat in Q4.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Housing Starts – Housing Starts expected to slow to a 200k unit rate in February from 207.4k in January. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has maintained that the October 2016 housing measures from the Ottawa will mitigate some of the risks (associated with housing) going down the road. But he cautioned that these things move slowly. Building permit values are seen falling 1.0% in January after the 6.6% tumble in December.

US ADP Employment Change – February ADP Employment report should post a solid 184k gain for the month, but below the January figure of 246k.

UK Annual Budget Release – Spring’s Budget Report and the first of 2017. Tax hikes expected to be announced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, as oil related stocks were under pressure. The front end Nymex future is slightly up on the day, but at USD 50.61 per barrel remains far below recent highs. Japan outperformed and the Nikkei closed with a 0.34% gain, as the Dollar strengthened amid positive signals ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data and the weaker yen underpinned exporters. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are down on the day, after the FTSE 100 already underperformed other European markets yesterday, but continues to hold the 7300 mark. The DAX meanwhile managed marginal gains yesterday, but is still holding below 12000, as markets hold their breath ahead of today’s ECB meeting, amid speculation that Draghi could tweak the forward guidance on rates and remove the implicit easing bias as growth and inflation data continues to rise. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance remained steady at 24. ECB meeting aside, the calendar still has final non-farm payroll numbers from France, as well as Swiss unemployment and the Bank of France business confidence indicator.

US reports: ADP private payrolls surged 298k in February after rising 261k in January (revised up from 246k). The service sector added 193k jobs, while the goods sector added 106k. As for the more detailed breakdown, strength in services was paced by professional business services, up 66k, with leisure and education up 40k. IT added 25k. For the goods sector, construction added a huge 66k, while manufacturing increased 32k. Mining was up 8k. This is a much better than expected report and adds upside risk to Friday’s BLS numbers. The data should also confirm a Fed rate hike next Wednesday. Furthermore, yesterday oil rallied to $53.80 from $53.45 following the EIA inventory data which showed an 8.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. Oil gains following the EIA report were short-lived, with the contract now on fresh one-month lows of $52.14. Prices initially moved higher on the inventory figures, with the smaller than API crude build and larger than forecast product draws giving oil bulls a leg up. It turned out however, that the gains were quickly sold into, on the realization that U.S. crude stocks posted yet another all-time high.

Canada: Canada housing starts improved to 210.2k in February from a revised 208.9k unit rate pace in January (was 207.4k). The pick-up in starts was contrary to expectations for a moderation in February. Single detached starts grew 12.1% to 71.9k units in February while multi urban starts fell 4.7% to 121.2k units. The six-month moving average for total starts picked-up to a 204.7k clip in February from 200.3k in January. The CMHC’s report notes that the uptrend in home construction this winter has been mostly due to increased home construction in Ontario, where single detached home construction is near the pace last seen in July of 2008. Canada building permit values rose 5.4% in January, better than expected, following a revised 4.4% drop in December (was -6.6%).

UK: The UK government announced its mid-year budget update, coordinated with the release of official economic projection updates from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. The 2017 growth forecast was raised to 2.0% from 1.4%, but in the four-year outlook growth was revised lower. Inflation is seen peaking at 2.4% this year before ebbing slightly to an average rate of 2.3% in 2018, and then to 2.0% in 2019. Borrowing for this year is seen below that previously forecast, though is seen broadly unchanged over the next three years. Among the details are plans to increase spending on the health service and a reduction in the tax-free dividend.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Decision – ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged and confirm the QE schedule, which promises ongoing asset purchases through to the end of the year, but at a reduced monthly volume of EUR 60 bln from April. Given that much of this is also an insurance policy to prevent a renewed pick up in market volatility amid heightened political risks, Draghi is also likely to stress again that this doesn’t constitute real tapering and that the central bank has not yet set eyes on a phasing out of asset purchases. The focus will be on whether the central bank will take a more neutral stance on rates, however, and remove the reference to the possibility of another rate cut, as suggested by the hawks at the council in light of rising inflation and strong growth numbers.

US Unemployment Claims – Initial claims data for the week of March 4 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 235k from 223k last week and 242k in the week prior.

Canadian NHPI – New Housing Price index expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% for January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly managed to move higher overnight, let by a nearly 1.5% gain in the Nikkei as the Yen weakened against the Dollar. U.S. futures are also up, as the focus shifts to today’s jobs data and next week’s Fed meeting. Yesterday was all about Draghi an, who managed to introduce subtle changes to signal a very gradual move towards a more neutral stance and not only helped stocks to move higher, but also to bring in Eurozone spreads amid a general rise in long term yields. Today’s calendar has already seen the German trade surplus shrink (see below) industrial production numbers from France and the U.K.. The U.K. also has trade data, but again the focus will be on the US calendar in the afternoon.

German Trade: The surplus narrows, as imports continue to rise. Exports managed to rebound from the slump in December and rose 2.7% m/m, but this was more than counterbalanced by a 3.0% m/m rise in nominal imports, which left the trade surplus at EUR 14.9 bln on a seasonally adjusted basis. The current account surplus dropped even more. The numbers highlight that much of last year’s improvement in trade data was impacted by price developments and the drop in oil prices, while real data actually showed a negative contribution to overall growth from the external sector.

US Data Yesterday revealed a firm set of initial claims and trade price data, though we did see a 20k bounce for claims to 243k after the prior 19k plunge to a 44-year low of 223k in the President’s Day week. For trade prices, we saw big February gains after upward revisions that reflected surprisingly little downward pressure from the dollar’s surge, with strength skewed toward exports as seen through most of 2016. Core export prices rose 0.5%, while core import prices rose 0.3%. The claims bounce still leaves a firm start for March, and we still expect a 225k February nonfarm payroll rise with upside risk from tight claims, firm consumer and small business confidence, and a robust 298k ADP rise. Vehicle sales were flat in February but we expect a bounce in output. For downside risk, we expect a 5k-10k monthly decline in government jobs due to the hiring freeze, versus the 16k average monthly gains through 2016, and we had an east coast storm in the BLS survey week.

ECB: Subtle changes at the central bank yesterday, with Draghi once again trying to keep both hawks and doves happy. The result was a shift in language, that was so subtle that it took Draghi to highlight it during the Q&A session, as QE schedule and easing bias on rates were left in place. This balancing act saw markets taking the hint, but leaving the ECB sufficient room to act and keep the insurance policy amid the multitude of political challenges hitting the Eurozone this year. On balance our central scenario for the ECB going ahead remains the same, with QE going ahead this year and rates remaining unchanged throughout the year. The ECB is maintaining its insurance policy as elections get underway and the Brexit talks start in earnest and it can afford to do so as base effects should see headline inflation rates starting to come off again later in the year.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-farm payrolls – The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters is for the Non-Farm Payroll to rise by 195,000, however, there is significant risk to the upside following Wednesdays big rise in the ADP report. Expectations are as high as 285,000 with a number of estimates being raised to 225,000. The Earnings figure needs to recoup the 0.3% level and the unemployment is expected to fall from 4.8% to 4.7%.

Canadian Employment – It is expected to rise 20k in February after the 48.3k surge in January. Canada posted employment gains from August to October of last year, saw a small decline in November and then revealed strong gains in December and January of this year. Unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 6.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2017.

FX News Today

The old notion of the “new normal” has been turned on its head in the months since Brexit and the Trump election. The slow growth, secular stagnation theme has been morphing into one of rising animal spirits and a reflation trade that could eventually manifest into a global cyclical upturn. And thus, the FOMC is readying its third-rate hike, while the ECB is subtlety shifting toward a neutral stance. Meanwhile, the rise of populism and the heightened political uncertainties will remain a major risk to the more optimistic outlook.

United States: In the U.S., the FOMC takes center stage and is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps to a 0.75% to 1.00% policy band. This would be the third tightening of the cycle. And it appears that the FOMC is ready to begin the normalization process in earnest. Key for the outlook will be the Fed’s dot plot, as well as any discussion regarding the balance sheet. Given the improved data and more hawkish rhetoric, it’s likely the Fed will confirm its three-tightening dot plot from December, and we expect additional 25 bps moves in June and September. There is risk the central tendency forecast shifts to four hikes this year. Along with the FOMC, the data slate is heavy with several important reports. CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Wednesday) headline as they are key factors in the policy equation. February CPI is expected to be unchanged after a 0.6% surge in January. The March Empire State (Wednesday) and Philly Fed manufacturing (Thursday) surveys are likely to show a slower pace of expansion than seen in February. The Fed’s February industrial production release (Friday) is expected to show a 0.2% bounce thanks to the solid indications from the nonfarm payroll report. Housing reports are also due too, including the NAHB homebuilder survey for March (Wednesday). It’s dipped in January and February from 69 in December, the highest since 2005. February housing starts (Thursday) are seen bouncing to a 1.255 mln, while consumer sentiment (Friday) should rise further to 97.0 in March after edging up 0.6 points to 96.3 in February.

Canada: Canada’s docket of economic data and events is thin this week. The only top tier report is manufacturing (Friday). The ponderously named National Balance Sheet and Financial Flow Accounts is released Wednesday. The report contains the household debt ratio, which we suspect saw another record high in Q4. February existing home sales (Wednesday) and the February Teranet/National Bank home price index (Tuesday) are also due out.

Europe: Data releases this week mainly focus on final February inflation numbers, but also include the first confidence reading for March in the form of the German ZEW (Tuesday). The investor confidence reading underperformed other sentiment numbers in February and expected to bounce back somewhat this month to 13.2 from 10.4. Against that, Eurozone industrial production numbers for January (Tuesday) will seem too backward looking to change the outlook. Final February inflation data, meanwhile, is not expected to hold major surprises and a confirmation of the French reading (Wednesday), the Spanish (Tuesday), the German HICP (Tuesday) and the Italian HICP (Wednesday), is expected, which is in line with consensus and would leave the overall Eurozone rate (Thursday) at 2.0%. This is in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. But, the uptick is mainly driven by oil prices and base effects, and with core inflation still low at just 0.9% y/y, the data is not sufficient to prompt a radical change in ECB policy.

UK: The calendar features the March BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcement and minutes due Thursday), which is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and QE settings unchanged, both by unanimous vote. Data releases this week are thin on the ground, highlighted by the monthly labour market report (Wednesday), which expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8%.

Japan: The BoJ announces its policy intentions on Thursday after its 2-day meeting. No policy changes are expected, keeping short term rate at -0.1%, and targeting a zero yield for 10-year bond. The bank is likely to maintain a wait and see stance to see how the modest recovery pans out. As for data, revised January industrial production is due Wednesday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the employment report (Thursday), which is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in February after the 13.7k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7%, matching the 5.7% rate in January. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the Bloomberg Breakfast (Tuesday).

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has Q4 GDP (Thursday), expected to show a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% growth rate in Q3. The current account (Wednesday) is anticipated to narrow to NZ$2.5 bln in Q4 from NZ$4.9 bln in Q3. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. We expect RBNZ to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved sideways, with investors continuing to hold back ahead of the Fed rate review tomorrow. The Nikkei closed with a -0.12% loss, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are also posting slight gains, while the ASX was up 0.03% at the close. U.S. stock futures are slightly down and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher as Sterling continues to slide. Against that background Gilts are likely to continue to underperform, but Bunds, which still managed to rescue some gains into the close yesterday, continued to decline in after hour trade and could be under pressure at the open. U.K. Prime Minister May managed to secure backing from lawmakers to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks with the EU and will reportedly do so in the last week of May. The data calendar today has final inflation data from Germany and Spain as well as Eurozone industrial production and most importantly German ZEW investor confidence for March.

ECB: Tackling weak productivity is key. The central bank head, Mario Draghi, is once again highlighting the limits of monetary policy and the need for structural reforms to boost growth saying in Frankfurt that addressing weak productivity in the Eurozone is key. Draghi said “while some progress can be made in innovation, it is not my view the sole issue. Equally important for the euro area is to facilitate and encourage the spread of new technology”. He also highlighted that “much of the debate today about the true level of the real equilibrium interest rate, for example, is a debate about the outlook for productivity growth”. Furthermore, from ECB’s members, yesterday, Weidmann rejected criticism of Germany over EUR level. The Bundesbank President in an e-mail answer said the USD strength reflects the outlook for the U.S. economy, adding that recent USD movements are within the range of normal fluctuations.

Germany: German Feb HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.2% y/y as expected, up from 1.9% y/y in the previous month and clearly above the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2.0%. The breakdown confirmed that base effects from food and energy prices are mainly to blame. Food price inflation jumped to 4.4% y/y in February, from 3.2% y/y in January and just 0.5% y/y in September last year, after a late cold winter hit crops. Prices for heating oil surged 43.8% y/y in February, after falling through most of last year. Petrol price inflation hit 15.6% y/y. So the data back Draghi’s argument that the rise in the headline rate is mainly driven by temporary effects, while underlying inflation remains low, which means the central bank can still allow to take a relaxed stance for now, although officials will have to keep an eye on second round effects amid improving labour markets.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI – February PPI data expected to remain unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month with the core up 0.2%. This follows stronger January figures which had the headline up 0.6% with the core up 0.4% for the month.

German ZEW – Germany’s investor confidence reading underperformed other sentiment numbers in February and now expected to bounce back somewhat this month to 13.2 from 10.4. Optimists are clearly outnumbering pessimists despite the multitude of political challenges and the ECB has proved that its eventual exit from stimulus measures will happen very gradually and with market reactions always in mind.

EU Industrial Production – Eurozone industrial production numbers for January will seem too backward looking to change the outlook., since expected to rise to 1.2% m/m, after the -1.6% m/m decline in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with investors holding their breath ahead of today’s Fed policy review, which is expected to bring another rate hike. The ASX managed to close higher again after a weak start as strong iron ore prices underpinned a rally in Fortescue shares. U.S, and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, the latter despite a broad rise in Sterling. Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.51 per barrel. Today’s European calendar has U.K. labour market data, as well as final Feb inflation data from France and Italy. Germany sells EUR 1bln of 30 year Bunds and market will look to the Netherlands, where elections are held today amid an increasingly escalating spat with Turkey, that seems to have strengthened PM Rutte’s stance against anti-EU populist Wilders.

US reports: the PPI rose 0.3% in February with the core rate up 0.3% as well, following respective January gains of 0.6% and 0.4%. On an annual basis, PPI posted a 1.5% y/y rate versus 1.2% y/y before, while the core rate accelerated to 1.8% y/y from 1.6% y/y. February goods prices were up 0.3% with food posting a 0.3% gain while energy was up 0.6%. Services prices rose 0.4%. The numbers are a little higher than forecast. Rising inflation is one of the main factors behind the Fed’s likely rate hike today. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.3% in March from 2.2% in February thanks to a hard comparison, while the y/y core price rise climbs to 1.8% from 1.5% in February. On the old SOP basis, we saw a 0.1% headline PPI rise after gains of 1.1% in January, 0.6% in December and 0.2% in November. Last Thursday’s trade price report revealed firm February prices beyond an oil import price drop that reflected surprisingly little downward pressure from the dollar’s surge.

German ZEW & EU Industrial Production: German ZEW investor confidence rose to 12.8 from 10.4 in the previous month. A tad below Bloomberg consensus, but still a sign that the number of those optimistic about the economic outlook continues to rise, although uncertainty continues to keep a lid on investment sentiment in particular. Eurozone industrial production rose 0.9% m/m in January, after falling -1.2% m/m in the previous month. Numbers have been volatile, and the three months’ trend rate remains unchanged at 0.9%, unchanged from December, the data are still consistent with ongoing economic improvements ahead. European data releases included the slightly weaker than hoped improvement in ZEW investor confidence as well as a confirmation of German headline HICP at 2.2% y/y, with food and energy prices driving the rise above the Eurozone’s upper limit for price stability.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Unemployment Rate – Monthly labour market report expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8%.

US Retail Sales and CPI – February CPI is expected to be unchanged after a 0.6% surge in January, while the core rate is projected rising 0.2% following the 0.3% gain previously. That should leave the annual headline rate rising at a 2.6% y/y pace versus 2.5% y/y. February retail sales are expected to fall 0.3% amid weakness in autos, nearly unwinding the 0.4% January gain. Excluding autos, sales should also fall 0/3%, partly due to declines in gas and food.

FOMC Statement & Rate Decision – The FOMC takes center stage and is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps to a 0.75% to 1.00% policy band. Key for the outlook will be the Fed’s dot plot, as well as any discussion regarding the balance sheet. Given the improved data and more hawkish rhetoric, it’s likely the Fed will confirm its three-tightening dot plot from December.

Dutch Elections – The Netherlands kicks off this year’s round of elections today and all eyes will be on anti-EU, anti-immigrant populist Geert Wilders and his PVV.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, led by the Hang Seng which surged 1.56%. The Nikkei closed with a 0.7% gain as the Yen strengthened and the ASX was 0.20% better off at the close. Oil prices continued to rise and the front end WTI future is trading above USD 49 per barrel. Markets were relieved that the Fed delivered the expected 25bp hike, but didn’t signal faster tightening ahead and stuck with the projected 2 additional moves this year. The decision was followed by China’s central bank, which lifted charges on open market operations and the medium-term lending facility. The bank suggested that the move was largely driven by market expectations. European and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher and in Europe, news that in the Netherlands PM Rutte beat anti-EU populist Wilders by a surprisingly large margin will help to dampen EU and EMU break up fears as the focus turns to the French election and Brexit talks. Today’s calendar has central bank decisions from the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank, with all banks expected to keep policy on hold. The Eurozone also has the final CPI reading for February.

FOMC: The FOMC hiked its target corridor by another quarter point, after a hiatus in February, for the third move of the cycle and the first of potentially three hikes forecast for 2017. Yellen and company had ensured that the move was nearly fully discounted in advance, and the positive market reaction suggested that they succeeded. The Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as some had feared, but there were some subtle changes that merit closer inspection. The Fed has noted a more optimistic shift in sentiment in recent months, which is “obvious and notable.” But most businesses are still displaying a wait and see posture currently. Regarding a question on why raise rates now, given the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast was trimmed to a low 0.9%, Yellen noted policy is still accommodative and there are other signs the Fed is monitoring that are showing improvement. Yellen’s press conference has ended without any new insights or revelations. She outlined the Fed’s motives behind the actions, saying the tightening was appropriate given the improvement in the economy and as they are close to meeting their policy objectives. She again noted, as she has done in recent prior comments, that the Fed has yet to officially plug in projections on fiscal policy. There was no indication of any urgency behind further rate hikes.

Netherland: Anti-EU Populists take a hit. The latest polls ahead of the election already indicated that Rutte’s clear stance against Turkey’s attempt to bring the campaign for Erdogan’s constitutional referendum to the Netherlands helped the PM to overtake anti-EU populist Wilders, but the preliminary results of the Dutch election show Rutte winning with a surprisingly large margin. Nexit is off the table and the anti-EU camp has taken a hit, as the Dutch election also showed that while many are tempted to cast a protest vote and shake up the establishment, they do not want radical change and a breakup of the EU. So rather than acting as a positive example, the Brexit referendum seems to have acted as a warning. Rutte now will have to find coalition partners and the Netherlands could again face a lengthy period of political uncertainty as talks progress, but with Wilders beaten, this is unlikely to have wider market implications.

Japan: Earlier today during BoJ’s Policy Rate’s released and BoJ’s Press Conference, BoJ’s Kuroda said the bank will continue “powerful monetary easing” under yield curve control framework “to achieve the price target at the earliest date possible.” He noted that inflation has been moving sideways while saying that “momentum for inflation to accelerate to 2 percent remains in place but lacks strength.” Regarding the Fed’s rate tightening path Kuroda said “I don’t think U.S. interest rate developments will immediately have a severe impact on emerging economies,” adding that “we need to watch developments carefully.” He also touched on the trade protectionist issue, arguing that “not only the G20 but the IMF and OECD have also said that trade protectionism damages global growth,” emphasizing that “Japan’s stance on this will not change.”

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Statement & Rate Decision – The March BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcement and minutes), is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and QE settings unchanged, both by unanimous vote.

EU Final CPI & core CPI – Eurozone will have the final CPI reading for February, which expected to remain unchanged at 2.0%. This is in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. But, the uptick is mainly driven by oil prices and base effects, and with core inflation still low at just 0.9% y/y, the data is not sufficient to prompt a radical change in ECB policy.

US Philly Fed survey & Housing Starts – Philly Fed manufacturing surveys are likely to show a slower pace of expansion than seen in February at 30.2 from 43.3 last time. February housing starts are seen bouncing to a 1.26 mln pace after slipping 2.6% to 1.246 mln in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with the ASX managing to close with a 0.24% gain, while the Nikkei was down -0.35% at the close. The Hang Seng moved sideways after yesterday’s rally and the CSI 3000 is heading south. U.K. and U.S. futures are also in negative territory and it seems European markets could correct some of yesterday’s relief rally, which could help to put a floor under bond markets. Bunds underperformed yesterday and extended losses in after hour trade, hit by comments from Nowotny who suggested that the deposit rate could rise before the repo rate when the ECB eventually starts it exit from the loose policy. The comments were clearly not intended to signal any immediate policy change, but markets immediately started to price in rate hikes, indicating how sensitive investors are to any comments on rates. Today’s calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade and construction data, leaving markets plenty of time to digest this week’s central bank decisions and upcoming policy risks, with the U.K. set to trigger Article 50 and official Brexit talks next week.

President Trump released his “skinny budget” for 2018: which it’s more a general blueprint and is hence, short on details. The 53 page document is about 1/3 that of President Obama’s, due in part to the fact he included only discretionary items. As expected, defense spending was boosted by $54 bln, but the overall impact will be neutralized by reductions in a number of agencies, including cuts of 31% from the EPA and a 29% from the State Department. Ag and Labor Departments were also trimmed by 21%.

U.S. reports: revealed remarkably strong Philly Fed component data and another super-tight initial claims reading. U.S. March Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 10.5 points to 32.8 after surging 19.7 points higher to 43.3 in February (which was the strongest print since January 1984). But, key components were all higher. U.S. housing starts rebounded 3.0% to 1.288 mln in February after tumbling 1.9% to 1.251 mln in January. The 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 241k in the second week of March trimmed the 20k bounce to 243k, from the 44-year low of 223k in the week of President’s Day. That brought the 4-week average up to 237.25k from 236.5k. Continuing claims dropped 30k to 2,030k in the March 4 week after slipping 4k to 2,060k previously. Ongoing tightness in claims, combined with today’s robust Philly Fed headline and component data, signals upside risk to the March jobs report. Claims remain well below the 263k average in 2016 and the 6-month high of 275k as recently as mid-December.

UK: BoE left the repo rate at 0.25% and QE unchanged, as widely expected, though one of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kirsten Forbes, dissented in favour of a 25bp rate hike. The minutes retained the view that “some modest withdrawal of monetary stimulus” over the next three years still applied, but stressed that, despite slowing wage growth and consumer spending, that “some members noted that it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects of activity or inflation for them to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted.” The MPC still retained its overall neutral stance, noting that additional policy support could yet be warranted if growth lagged behind projections made in the BoE’s February Inflation Report. Sterling rallied on the unexpected vote split and hawkish twist in the minutes.

Main Macro Events Today

G20 Meetings – G20 meetings will be held today and tomorrow in Germany.

Prelim UoM Consumer – The first release on Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March is out today and should post a slight headline increase to 97.1 after February’s dip to 96.3 from 98.5 in January. The various measures of consumer confidence have been hitting a string of new post-recession highs since the election but have begun to plateau.

US Industrial Production – February industrial production data is expected to post 0.3% increase following the 0.3% drop in January and the 0.6% increase in December.

Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Manufacturing Sales expected to reveal a 0.4% m/m loss in January after the 2.3% bounce in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2017.

FX News Today

Some cracks appeared in the global divergence trade following repeated reports that the ECB is clandestinely mulling the possibility of hiking the deposit rate before ending QE. In contrast, the first Fed hike of 2017 was well discounted in advance and accompanied by the “gradualist” mantra and one dovish dissent. A hawkish dissenter from steady BoE policy emerged as well, riling up the bond markets. Into this mix, the G20 over the weekend attempted to spackle over yawning differences on global trade and protectionism; omitting references to open, free or rules-based trade, rejection of protectionism and climate change financing in its communique’.

United States: In the U.S., economic calendar starts slowly and then peters out from there, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index out (Monday), followed by the current account (Tuesday), whose gap is seen widening to -$131.4 bln in Q4 from -$113.0 bln. MBA mortgage market data picked up last week into the teeth of higher rates (Wednesday). FHFA home prices and February existing home sales are on tap as well, seen easing back 0.7% from a solid 3.3% January gain. Initial jobless claims may rebound 6k to 247k (Thursday) for the March 18 week. The week winds down with durable goods orders estimated to rise 1.4% in February vs 2.0% in January.

Canada: In Canada, the February CPI and Federal budget compete for top billing this week. The CPI (Friday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. Wholesale sales (Monday) are seen rising 0.5% in January after the 0.7% gain in December. The Federal budget is scheduled for Wednesday. The government has pitched this budget as more of a preliminary plan than is usually the case, given uncertainty over the Trump trade agenda. Hence, the fall fiscal update could see lager than usual changes as the projected impact of the known U.S. trade policy can be included. According to media reports, Budget 2017 will provide details on the billions in spending outlined in the 2016 budget, as opposed to introducing new spending initiatives. The Fall update projected a C$25.1 bln deficit in FY2016/17, deepening to C$27.8 bln in FY2017/18. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade (Tuesday).

Europe: The focus is to the data calendar, which this week includes the preliminary round of March PMI readings. Brexit talks are also back in focus, although reports suggest that U.K. PM May will wait until the last week of March before officially triggering Article 50 that starts divorce proceedings. EU leaders are set to meet for a regular summit on March 25. Eurozone Finance Ministers meet Monday, with Greece a perpetual topic and ECBspeak from Weidmann, Lautenschlaeger and Nouy is likely to confirm that while the official easing bias remains in place. Tthe official ECB bulletin (Thursday) will confirm the official line that rates are expected to remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time and well past the QE schedule.The calendar also has Eurozone current account and BoP numbers as well as German PPI inflation, with the latter expected to confirm that base effects from energy prices feed through the product chain. Supply includes a German 10-year Bund offering on Wednesday.

UK: Sterling has been volatile over the last several weeks, and more of the same seems likely as the UK heads into the business end of the Brexit process, with the government expected to invoke Article 50 by the end of the month. PM May has signaled that she is prepared to call “no deal” if the leaving terms are unsatisfactory and new trading terms can’t be agreed upon within the two year negotiation period, which in the event would mean the UK adopting WTO trading rules and taking a likely hit on its terms-of-trade position as a consequence. The UK data calendar brings February inflation (Tuesday) and February official retail sales data (Thursday), along with the March CBI surveys on industrial trends (Tuesday) and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Japan will take Monday off for the Vernal Equinox Day holiday. Trade data are always interesting for the island nation and the February report (Wednesday) is expected to flip to a JPY 700.0 bln surplus, versus the JPY 1,087.6 bln deficit in January, thanks in part to the slightly weaker yen. The January all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in at -0.2% m/m from -0.3% previously. BoJ minutes to the January 30-31 policy meeting are also on tap (Wednesday).

Australia: Australia’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the March meeting (Tuesday). The Bank left policy unchanged, as expected, but the door remains open for an easing later this year as inflation remains below target. Economic data is in short supply, with the Q4 house price index due Tuesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (Thursday). The February trade (Friday) balance is expected to shift to a NZ$200 mln surplus in February from the -NZ$285 mln deficit in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI continuing to outperform as China earnings optimism fuels Chinese stocks in Hong Kong. Japan closed in negative territory after yesterday’s holiday. U.S. stock futures are moving higher, while the FTSE 100 future is slightly in negative territory. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism continue to linger after the frosty G20 meeting. Bundesbank President Weidmann tried to play down the rift, saying that the view was shared that open markets and a free market-based economy are key for prosperity, but added that the meeting showed that “there are still some discussions ahead” regarding the role of trade. Oil prices are up on the day. The European calendar hots up today, with U.K. inflation data for February, as well as public finance data and the CBI Industrial Trends survey for March.

Fedspeak: Both Fed’s Evans and Harker mulled the possibility of 3 hikes in 2017, while Kashkari defended his dovish dissent, warning that nothing had really changed economically and inflation remained below target. Philly Fed’s Harker said in a CNBC interview that raising rates last week was prudent. Harker is a voter this year and is on the hawkish end of the hawk-dove spectrum. While he’s in line with the 3 rate hikes this year, he said there’s no real urgency right now. He noted the Fed is getting closer to its 2% inflation goal and prices are moving in the right direction. He expects there could be some overshoot of the target, but didn’t want to get behind the curve. On the other hand, Fed’s Kashkari said inflation is stuck at 1.7% as measured by core PCE y/y and the jobless rate has steadied near 4.7% as the labor force participation rate goes up. He’s defending his dovish dissent last week and said that nothing has really changed over the past several years, which justifies letting the economy run. Lastly Chicago Fed’s Evans said the economy is on a pretty good course. He said this is a challenging period of time, noting the potential for a big stimulus boost to growth. He suggested that would pose a risk to the FOMC given the economy is close to full capacity. He also said the lower pace of capital expansion could reflect lower trend growth.

President Trump: As Reuters reported: “President Donald Trump said last night that he wants to add a provision to the Republican healthcare plan that would lower prescription drug costs through a “competitive bidding process.” “We’re going to have a great competitive bidding process. Medicine prices will be coming way down. We’re trying to add it to this bill and if we can’t, we’ll have it right after,” he said, referring to Republican legislation to replace Obamacare that is due to be voted on in the House of Representatives as early as Thursday. However, the appearance of both the NSA and FBI Directors on Capital Hill snatched most of the media focus, after Comey confirmed FBI is investigating Russian interference in the election and any Trump Campaign complicity, while denying any veracity of wiretapping claims and mulling press leaks.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation Data – CPI expected to lift to a new cycle high of 2.1% y/y from 1.8% y/y in February, which would be the first-time inflation has been either at or above the BoE’s mandated 2.0% target since December 2013. February Core CPI is expected to come in relatively more benign, at 1.7% y/y.

BoE Gov. Carney – BOE Governor Mark Carney is going to give a speech at 10:35 GMT in London.

Canadian Retail Sales – January is typically a solid month for retail sales, and expected to fit the usual pattern with a 1.5% gain in total sales and a 1.3% rise in the ex-autos aggregate.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. The Trumpflation already started to stall in the U.S. yesterday and uncertainty about U.S. policies going ahead have seen U.S. markets heading south, which also pulled down European markets and now Asia, where the Japan saw the biggest slump in stocks since the U.S. presidential election. The Nikkei closed with a 2.13% loss and the break of key technical levels has raised fears of further swings ahead. The ASX was down 1.56% at the close, the Hang Seng is currently down -1.4%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also firmly in negative territory, so there is no end to the sell off in sight so far. Against that background, Bunds, which already started to climb higher in after hour trade yesterday, are likely to gain further. The European calendar today is pretty empty, with only Eurozone current account and BoP numbers, and is unlikely to have much of an impact.

Fedspeak: KC Fed hawk George said the Fed is moving into a “critical time”. She’s worried the very low interest rates can lead to imbalances. She somewhat squashed worries over the balance sheet normalization sooner rather than later, noting that reducing it probably won’t happen quickly. Shrinking the Fed’s portfolio is going to entail a lot of discussion and analysis. Yields are at the lows yesterday after she didn’t take an overly hawkish stance, nor try to dissuade the Treasury market from its more bullish leaning after the FOMC didn’t meet fears of a more aggressive rate hike posture with last Wednesday’s results. Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari was Tweeting freely in an #AskNeel session on Twitter. He said: “Need to factor in lower neutral real rates. Economy not growing nearly as fast as anyone would like. But higher rates won’t help” in response to a question about Yellen saying the economy is doing well. At the Bank of England NY Fed’s Dudley spoke on bank ethics. He said that there still was a “long way to go” on reforming bank culture in wake of the financial crisis and again called for revamped bank performance incentives after the Wells Fargo scandal. He didn’t discuss monetary policy.

Canada: Canada retail sales surged 2.2% in January after the revised 0.4% drop in December (was -0.5%). The ex-autos sales aggregate grew 1.7% in January following a revised 0.5% decline (was -0.3%). Growth in the total and ex-autos sales aggregate exceeded expectations. Higher prices played a large role in boosting total and ex-autos sales values, as expected. Retail sales volumes grew a less pronounced, but still robust, 1.3% in January after the 1.0% decline in December. Yields extended gains on the robust retail sales report, which continued the recent run of firm data from Canada. Additionally, yesterday Deputy Governor Schembri spoke to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, with remarks published on the BoC’s website. He stated that: “it is still too early to assume the worst is behind us” in terms of economic growth. He acknowledged that Q4 GDP overshot the Bank ‘s projections, but said “…a more detailed analysis suggests scope for cautious.” Overall, Schembri’s prepared remarks have keep the Bank’s dovish tone well intact, despite recent upbeat data.

Main Macro Events Today

US Crude Oil Inventories – Expected to rise to 1.9M from -0.2M last week.

NZD Rate Statement – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is late today. RBNZ expected to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%. The RBNZ held steady in February, after the expected easings in November and August.

US Existing Home Sales – February existing home sales should reveal to 5.580 mln after a 3.3% increase to 5.690 mln in January which marked a new recent high.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilise yesterday and this continued in Asia overnight, with the Nikkei managing a 0.23% gain at the close, while the ASX was up 0.41%. Gains are modest so far compared to the rout of recent days and investors remain cautious on Trump’s policies. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, which should see bond futures correcting some of yesterday’s gains. FTSE 100 underperformed and Gilts outperformed yesterday after news of the London attack and seems to be bouncing back again. The calendar fills up today with French business confidence numbers, as well as German and Eurozone consumer confidence and U.K. retail sales data alongside the CBI distributive trade survey.

RBNZ held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Wheeler saying “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” But a dovish bias remain in place, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly. No change in rates is expected through to year end. USDNZD trades at 0.7050 from an overnight low of 0.7024.

US Data: The 3.7% U.S. existing home sales drop to a surprisingly weak 5.48 mln February clip trimmed the January pop to an unrevised 5.69 mln cycle-high from rates of 5.51 mln in December and a prior cycle-high 5.60 mln in November, as mild weather failed to visibly lift February sales. A 0.5% median price rise to $228,400 trimmed the seasonal downtrend from the $247,600 all-time high last June, while inventories rose 4.2% to a still-lean 1.75 mln. We assume a 3% sales rise in Q1 after a solid 13% rate in Q4 but a 7% contraction rate in Q3. Sales have adhered to an erratic uptrend since 2010. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% growth clip in 2017, following a 3.9% rise in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015. We have cyclical increases of 59% for existing home sales and 39% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 106% for new home sales, 169% for housing starts, and 136% for permits.

EU must prepare for U.K. walking out of Brexit talks without a deal. Bloomberg reported that EU officials are calling on the bloc to prepare for the possibility of Brexit without a deal, citing a private memo and people familiar with the discussions. The official EU negotiator Barnier reportedly told a meeting of EU Commissioners that some Conservative politicians in the U.K. are already trying to undermine efforts to find common ground. May is set to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks on March 29 and a key stumbling block are likely to prove the final bill to cover the U.K. outstanding U.K. liabilities, as EU officials insist the U.K. “must settle the accounts” when it leaves, stressing that it won’t be asked “to pay a single euro for something they have not agreed to as a member”. Barnier stressed that that a failure to come to an agreement would have “serious consequences”, not just for citizens living in the EU, but also supply problems for companies, air-traffic disruption, tougher custom controls and no more circulating of nuclear material. U.K. officials meanwhile question the legality of the bill and May has repeatedly said that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain”.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Chair Yellen Speech – It’s unlikely she’ll try to alter the tone from last week’s FOMC result, where the Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as the markets had expected. If she addresses policy, she will probably reiterate the gradual nature of the trajectory. Also on tap are the dovish dissenter Kashkari, who will discuss education and late in the day, the more hawkish voter Kaplan will speak on the economic outlook.

US New Home Sales – February new home sales data is out later and should reveal a 2.7% increase for the headline to a 570k (median 565k) pace following a 3.7% increase to a 555k pace in January. The NAHB composite for February declined to 65 from 67 and the MBA purchase index is down 4.6% for the month.

UK Retail Sales – Expectations are for a rise to 0.45 from a poor -0.35 in February and a rather dismal -2.1% report for January. The consumer has been keeping the UK economy ticking along despite of Brexit concerns – figure watched with keen interest for impacts on sterling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Key Asian stock markets moved higher despite the delay of Trump’s health care bill was delayed, which will now face an uncertain vote today. With the Dollar advancing and the Yen falling back the Nikkei managed a 0.9% gain, and the ASX closed up 0.8%, but the Hang Seng is in negative territory, The Shanghai composite is little changed and Taiwan’s index was down together with the Kopsi while Southeast Asian benchmarks were mixed. U.S. markets closed in the red yesterday, while European markets managed a late rally, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher as investors await the final vote. In Europe, the calendar has preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for March, the U.K. has BBA mortgage approvals and EU leaders (minus U.K. PM May) will gather for a summit to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties.

House delayed yesterday’s planned vote the healthcare bill, possibly until next week, according to news reports. Leadership has told members to be available today, however, in case a vote can be slated. Wall Street closed with modest losses, having unwound early gains as the prospects for the bills passage today dimmed through the day. The stock market is likely to remain in wait and see mode today, rather than stage a major selloff, given the possibility for a vote over the weekend or next week. Ways and Means Chairman Brady said (in CNBC interview) no one has walked away yet.

U.S. reports revealed solid February new home sales despite weakness in Wednesday’s existing home sales report, alongside a 15k pop in initial claims to an elevated 258k in the BLS survey week after annual revisions that mostly lifted levels of claims since November, leaving a net negative signal for the day’s data overall. For new home sales, a 592k rate beat estimates, though mild weather failed to lift sales above the 622k cycle-high rate in July of 2016.

UK February retail sales smashed expectations, rising 1.7% m/m and by 3.7%, up on the respective median forecasts for 0.4% and 2.6% growth. A rebound had been expected following two consecutive months of sub-par sales, though the magnitude was even greater than foreseen. January data were revised lower, however, to -0.5% m/m from -0.3% m/m initially reported, and to 1.0% y/y growth from 1.5% y/y. The ONS stats office advices caution, highlighting that the underlying three-month view shows sale in decline as a consequence of the weakness in December and January. After the strong retail sales report, out of the UK, cable has lifted back above 1.2500, with the pound finding support on dips. Additionally, BoE MPC’s Broadbent that UK exporters are benefiting from a temporary sweet spot, with the pound weaker following the Brexit vote but with trading terms remaining unchanged and with global growth picking up.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI are out today and expected both to show a slight difference from February at 55.3 from 55.4 and 55.5 respectively.

UK Durable Goods – February durable goods expected to see orders up 1.1% compared to respective January figures which had orders up 2.0%.

Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. On an annual comparable basis, CPI is stay unchanged to a 2.1%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2017.

FX News Today

Brexit comes into view now that the drama over the ACA was ended on Friday when the bill was canceled to avoid a “no” vote, as neither Trump nor Ryan could muster sufficient support. Triggering Article 50 on Brexit shouldn’t have any immediate consequences as this just kicks off the negotiation process. Meanwhile, investors will remain focused on the U.S. political process and investors will have to assess the possible damage from the ACA defeat, and whether it endangers the rest of the Trump agenda, or instead if it will allow the president to turn his full attention to tax reform, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus, policies that are more important to the markets.

United States: U.S. markets this week will try to assess the consequences of the ACA defeat and what it means for the future of the Trump agenda. Wall Street did manage to pare losses into Friday’s close after the ACA bill was pulled, rather than be put up to a certain “no” vote, as President Trump indicated he’d move on to tax reform, deregulation, and stimulus. As for data, housing and manufacturing reports dominate, but income, consumption and confidence numbers should be more market moving. The March Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index opens the week’s calendar (Monday). March consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February. The index has been on the rise since November. Also on tap Tuesday are the January Case-Shiller home price report and the Richmond Fed index. February pending home sales are due Wednesday. The third report on Q4 GDP (Thursday) should show a downward revision to a 1.8% pace from the 1.9% prior rate. February personal income (Friday) should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI is also due (Friday.

Canada: Bank of Canada Governor Poloz (Tuesday) speaks on “Canada’s economic history,” which will be followed by a press conference. January GDP (Friday) is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December, as Canada’s economy maintains momentum. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% m/m in February on the heels of the 0.4% bounce in January. The CFIB’s Business Barometer (Thursday) will provide a reading on the sentiment of small and medium sized firms in March.

Europe: Not much will be happening this week. The U.K. will officially notify EU officials, who in turn will acknowledge the request, before tasking negotiators with drafting guidelines, which then will have to be agreed upon by the remaining EU members before talks can officially start. With Easter coming up and the French election also on the agenda, and after already waiting 9 months, EU officials don’t seem inclined to rush anything now. The first Brexit summit is reportedly scheduled for a month after the U.K officially triggers Article 50, but the key phase could well only start in October, when the German election is also out of the way.This week’s pretty full calendar focuses on March confidence reading as well as preliminary March inflation data. After the surprisingly strong PMI readings and the improvement in preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence, an improvement in the German Ifo Business Climate index today is expected to 111.2 from 111.0 in the previous month. PMI readings suggest that the recovery is in the Eurozone is not just strengthening but broadening, hence ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) expected to rise to 108.2 from 108.0 in the previous month. We will see German HICP inflation on Thursday. This expected to leave overall Eurozone HICP (Friday) at 1.8% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in February. The calendar also has February retail sales data and import price inflation from Germany as well as French consumer spending and PPI data.

UK: This will be the week that the UK government will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to formerly begin the provisional two-year negotiation period to agree on divorcing terms with the EU. The day will be Wednesday, March 29th. Things won’t happen quickly given the bureaucracy of the 27-member EU (excluding the UK), and, illustrating this, President of the EU Council, Tusk, said last week that members will hold a Brexit summit on April 29 (which is a week after the first round of the French presidential election). The calendar this week features the third estimate on Q4 GDP (Friday), expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth. March data on consumer confidence (also Friday) and February lending figures from the BoE (Wednesday) are also due.

Japan: In Japan, the heavy data week will be important for the outlook as the fiscal year gets closer. Inflation, sales, and production numbers will be key. February services PPI (Monday) is expected to cool to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in January and December. February retail sales (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.5% after a 1.1% drop for larger retailers. That would be a 7th straight monthly decline. But, overall sales are projected rising 1.3% following the prior 1.0% gain. The remainder of releases are due Friday, starting with CPI. February housing starts and construction orders round out the calendar.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is sparse this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Debelle speaks at the FX Week Australia conference (Thursday). Private sector credit for February is due Friday.

New Zealand: February building permits are a lone highlight, due Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on May 11.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.