Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 28th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilize yesterday and Asian markets bounced back with materials and financial companies leading the way. The ASX 200 is up 1.30% and the Nikkei nearly 1.0%, while the Hang Seng gained 0.51% as investors see positives in Trump’s healthcare bill failure and speculate that he might also not be able to pass measures that are restrictive to global trade. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher and Praet’s push back against musings on exit strategies and the role of the deposit rate, which effectively affirms the guidance on rates and the implicit easing bias, should help Eurozone markets. Against that background, Bund futures already started to fall into yesterday’s close and in after hour trade and are likely to shed some of Monday’s gains, while Praet’s comments should underpin peripherals. Today’s calendar is relatively quiet, with only Italian industrial sales and orders.

US: Yields were mixed on Monday in the aftermath of the ACA repeal shortfall sell-off on Wall Street, which righted itself after opening sharply lower with global stocks. Financials and infrastructure plays took an early hit in contrast to bond demand, but risk-off trades then found some equilibrium, leaving yields above lows. The Dallas Fed business activity index pulled back in March.

Fedspeak: Chicago Fed dove Evans: inflation looks well on the way to reaching its 2% objective, said the dovish voter from Madrid. He still worries that long-term inflation expectations, however, are running below that objective and that uncertainties remain high in the U.S. In fact, he warns that trend growth in the U.S. is going to remain lower than most would prefer and doesn’t expect core CPI to reach 2% until 2019. Overall this is about par for the course from the uber dove, who will no doubt still go along with a couple more hikes in 2017.

ECB’s Praet pushes back against deposit rate musings. In what sounds like a warning to other council members, including Nowotny who has speculated about the need to raise the deposit rate ahead of the end of asset purchases Praet said “any communication on the deposit facility rate is a signal on the monetary policy stance, and there should be no ambiguity on this”. He added that “you have to be very careful on the guidance that we have because all the signals that you may give on the short-term rates, will influence the whole risk free yield curve”. This might consider as a signal that the official guidance that rates are seen at current or lower levels well past the end of asset purchases remains in place.

BoE revs up stress tests ahead of Brexit. The Bank will subject the country’s biggest lenders to a stress test that assumes a deep economic slump and a sharp depreciation of the Pound as the bank prepares for the impact of the U.K.’s exit from the EU. The tests don’t name Brexit risks in particular in its 2017 health check scenarios, but it is clear that the uncertain impact of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the union is one of the factors the BoE will have in mind, as it warns that risks to financial stability will be influenced by the “orderliness” of that process.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence – March consumer confidence is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February, and well above the prior high of 103.8 in January 2015.

Fedspeak – Fed Chair Yellen taking the spotlight today since she’ll be addressing the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference and will speak on workforce development challenges in low income communities. The non-voting hawk George will give a keynote address on banking and the economy. Kaplan will hold a Q&A session. Governor Powell speaks on the history and structure of the Fed.

BoC – BoC Governor Poloz speaks today on “Canada’s economic history.” His speech will be followed by a press conference.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The rebound on global equity markets continued in Asia overnight, as a bounce in consumer confidence underpinned confidence in the U.S. economy and officials sounded more upbeat on tax reforms. Australia’s ASX led the way, while Japan trailed behind with a marginal gain, as the strong Yen undermines exporters and as more than 1.500 companies in the Topix traded without the right to their latest dividend. Oil prices extended their gain above USD 48 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher as global equity markets are heading for their fifth straight month of gains. The European calendar as German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as Italian confidence data and U.K. lending data. May’s official Brexit announcement will be topping the headlines, however, as European officials increasingly fret about the risk of a hard Brexit.

U.S. reports revealed encouraging advance trade deficit figures for February with mixed inventory data that lifted our Q1 GDP estimate to 1.6% from 1.5%, following an assumed trimming of Q4 growth to 1.8% from 1.9%. The U.S. “soft” data continue to soar past the “hard” figures however, given a remarkable March surge in consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 from a 116.1 (was 114.8) prior high in February, alongside a Richmond Fed pop to a 7-year high of 22.0 in March with an ISM-adjusted rise to a 7-year high of 59.2 that included gains in every component but vender lead-time. The advance data showed a narrowing in the February trade gap for goods to $64.8 bln that implies a February drop in the goods and services trade deficit to $45.0 bln from a 5-year high of $48.5 bln in January. For inventories, we saw 0.4% February gains for both wholesalers and retailers.

Fedspeak: First speaker yesterday was Fed’s Chair Yellen, who did not comment on monetary policy or the economy in her prepared comments on “Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities.” She did note that while the U.S. job market overall has “improved markedly,” there remain pockets of “persistently high” unemployment rates. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan on the other hand said yesterday that Fed should be taking steps to raise rates patiently and gradually, following comments overnight in which he discussed winding down the balance sheet, no systemic risk, and meeting the dual mandate. He doesn’t want to raise rates so aggressively that you “jolt the economy into a slowdown.” Another speaker was Fed VC Fischer in a CNBC interview, who said the Fed is watching political developments closely. The healthcare debate might change his internal calculus, but it won’t have much net impact on the FOMC. He thinks it’s sensible for the Committee to have a wait-and-see approach on fiscal policy for now. Last Fed’s speaker yesterday was Fed’s George who said that consumers are feeling more confident, in her keynote address on “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the conference, Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking. She noted she is not sure what fiscal policy will mean for the economy, and is yet not ready to put any numbers into her forecasts.

BoC’s Poloz said yesterday that the focus on downside risks is appropriate given that the economy is running below equilibrium. He said upside risks would be great, but downside risk are problem. It is his job in the current situation of focus on downside risk. If the economy was in equilibrium, the Bank would be equally concerned about both upside and downside risks. But we are not, he said, we are below equilibrium, so the Bank worries more about downside risks in this situation. As for the recent data, he said it is “Odd to forget about all those downside risks just because a few data points came in better than expected. We’ve had better than expected data points in the past three years.”

Main Macro Events Today

Brexit Day – U.K. is finally ready to trigger Article 50 today, which will start the process to review a total of 20,833 laws and regulations that were in effect in the EU and Britain at the beginning of the year and that will now have to be reviewed or replaced. Environmental, health and consumer protection as well as legal acts on workers’ rights and standards for social welfare systems will also be under review and in theory that means more than 50 legislative texts each day to keep within the 2-year time frame.

Donald Tusk – The president of European Council is going to give a press statement on the UK notification.

Fedspeak – Fed’s Evans, the dovish voter, speaks on policy and the economy from Frankfurt. The non-voter Rosengren will address the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Boston. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter appears before the Forecasters Club of New York, and will discuss a sustained recovery.

US Pending Home Sales – February pending home sales are due today and expected at 2.1% from -2.8% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down led by a sell off in Chinese shares amid tightening money supply. The CSI 300 is down -0.80% and the Hang Seng down 0.88%. Japanese share also traded lower, as the Trump administration pushes ahead with its reform agenda, while the Fed contemplates the number of further cuts this year. The Yen weakened and crude managed to held on to yesterday’s gains and Australia’s ASX managed to dodge the trend with a 0.39% gain, while U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher. Global equity indices remain at very high levels, but despite gains on FTSE 100 and DAX yesterday Bund and Gilt futures moved higher and further signs that the ECB is far from ready to change its dovish guidance underpinned Bund futures in after hour trade, which should continue to cap yields this morning, despite the expected rise in ESI economic sentiment, which should be compensated to a certain extend by the expected decline in German HICP inflation.

U.K. finally triggers Article 50, by handing yesterday the official divorce letter to Tusk. May said she hoped for negotiations to be constructive and respective, while calling for a comprehensive free trade agreement including financial services, which for the EU will continue to look like an attempt to heave the cake and eat it. And with EU officials calculating that there will have to be around 50 legislative texts to be reviewed every day if the U.K. aims to stick to the 2-year time frame, this is not going to be a smooth ride. Battle lines are being drawn up now and while the U.K. aims for parallel talks for future arrangements alongside the key points of divorce, her counterparts want to settle the divorce modalities first. For now though nothing much will change as the U.K. remains part of the EU at the moment, although many companies have already started to adjust their plans. The first EU Brexit summit will be in a months’ time and with the German election coming up and more administrative hurdles to clear it will be some time before negotiations start in earnest.

U.S. reports: Pending home sales surged 5.5% to 112.3 in February, sharply beating forecasts, after falling 2.8% to106.4 in January. This is the highest since last April. But, on an annual basis, sales are down 2.4% y/y versus the 2.7% pace previously. Regionally, sales were higher in all four areas covered, paced by an 11.4% gain in the Midwest, while the South rose 4.3%. The Northeast increased 3.4% last month, with the West up 3.1%. The dollar edged a touch higher after the stronger pending home sales outcome. Additionally, WTI crude rallied to $49.62 from $48.60 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 900k bbl rise in crude stocks.

Fed’s Rosengren said he favors a hike at every other FOMC meeting in 2017, which would make 4 tightenings. Though once a dove, Rosengren turned rather hawkish last year. He is not a voter this year. He sees both Fed’s mandates being met this year. He expects continued continuity at the FOMC despite upcoming changes. Rosengren in Bloomberg interview: a faster pace of normalization should be considered he said. So far the FOMC has been very gradual in its tightening, and that should be the base case. And 4 hikes this year would still be a more gradual clip than in the last tightening cycle. Growth of 2.2% to 2.3% this year is a reasonable forecast. The economy is in a much better place now, and where the Fed wants it to be, but he doesn’t want policy to get behind the curve. Additionally, Fed’s Williams wouldn’t rule out more than 3 hikes this year, given upside risks, according to the text of his speech on From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes before the Forecasters Club of New York. On the other hand, Fed dove Evans said he backs 1 or 2 more tightenings this year, in comments on “The Times They Are A-Changin’,” at an International Capital Markets conference. There wasn’t anything new in his remarks, however. He believes weaker data this quarter is likely to be transitory.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU ESI – The ESI is expected to move higher, with our forecast for a rise to 108.2 from 108.0 coming with a risk to the upside after higher than expected PMIs and national surveys.

US GDP & Unemployment Claims – The third release on Q4 GDP is out on today and should reveal a 2.0% headline, revised from 1.9% in both of the first two releases. The Unemployment claims expected to fall to 244K from 261K reported last week.

German CPI – German HICP inflation expected to fall back to 2.0% y/y from 2.2%, while the Spanish rate, also due today, is expected to remain steady at 3.0%.

Fedspeak – The more hawkish Kaplan, a voter, will take Q&A at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s capital markets summit. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter will speak at a learning Community event. Mester, a non-voting hawk, speaks on improvement to the payments system. NY Fed’s Dudley discusses financial conditions and monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets mostly headed south in Asia overnight, with China’s CSI 300 outperforming, and managing a slight gain. The DAX managed to close slightly higher yesterday and the U.S. also consolidated modest gains, but the FTSE 100 closed down as Sterling strengthened and U.S. and UK. stock futures are also in the red after the losses on most Asian markets on the last trading day of the quarter. Markets continue to lack clear direction with corporate earnings and economic data underpinning optimism about the outlook for the second quarter, while politics remain a negative. The local calendar today as German jobless data, as well as Eurozone inflation data, with the latter expected to fall much more than originally expected, after German and Spanish numbers yesterday indicated that the later timing of Easter this year means prices for package holiday haven’t gone up yet, which is distorting the annual rate. The U.K. has house price data as well as the final reading of Q4 GDP. German retail sales and French consumer spending are also on the slate.

U.S. reports: revealed an upside surprise for GDP led by service consumption and a small 3k initial claims drop in the last week of March to 258k that largely sustained last week’s pop, leaving good news for the economy on net. For GDP, we still project 1.6% growth in Q1 before a stronger growth path in the 3%-area through Q2 and Q3. For claims, the path remains tight despite the rise over the past two weeks, and we would discount some volatility given this year’s late Easter, and the tight NSA claims readings of just 228k after a 225k BLS survey week reading, versus last year’s comparable readings of 231k and 236k in what was then the week of Good Friday.

Fed’s Kaplan reiterated 3 hikes is a good base case for this year. The hawkish Fed voter is participating in a Q&A session on monetary policy and the economy and at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, so the comments are rather wide ranging. He also said that rising confidence hasn’t translated into increased activity so far. The U.S.-Mexico relationship has led to a net increase in U.S. jobs. The weaker pound is helping act as a shock absorber for the U.K. economy. SF Fed’s Williams was mum on the economy and policy outlook in his prepared remarks as part of a panel discussion at a community event yesterday. Cleveland Fed hawk Mester supports further rate hikes, though not at each meeting, citing the sound U.S. economic expansion with the weak Q1 as largely transitory given residual seasonality in the data. She expects unemployment to remain below 5% for 2-years and reiterates her backing for beginning to trim bond holdings this year.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone HICP – Eurozone inflation is seen coming in below expectations and could fall to just around 1.8%, below the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%.

UK GDP – Q4 GDP expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth.
US Personal Income – February personal income should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI surged to 56.5 in March versus February’s 57.4.

Canadian GDP – January GDP is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December.

Fedspeak – The dovish dissenter Kashkari will take Q&A at a banking conference. NY Fed’s Dudley will be in Bloomberg, while MPC Member Haldane Speaks is going to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2017.

FX News Today

“Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered” goes the old trading adage. However, Wall Street and longer dated Treasuries are mostly net higher on the quarter, having weathered the Fed rate hike and some uncertainties over the Trump agenda after the ACA failure. Confidence remains high heading into April, as reflected recent sentiment surveys, the labor market continues to strengthen, and manufacturing is improving further. Data will be in full swing this week and will help formulate outlooks for Q2. In Europe, intrigue will continue swirl around the ECB’s exit strategy. The opening stance on Brexit between the UK and EU predictably focused on a “Hard Brexit” by the latter, though negotiations won’t be start in earnest until after German elections in September.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar features the March jobs report Friday, which has suddenly come upon us again after sealing the deal on the March FOMC hike last month. March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k vs 235k in February, with a 225k private payroll gain. Looking at the rest of the week, Markit PMI for manufacturing in March is due (Monday), along with March ISM manufacturing seen slipping to 57.0 from 57.7 and February construction spending expected to rise 0.8% vs -1.0%. The February trade deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to narrow to -$46.7 bln from -$48.5 bln, while MBA mortgage market report is due (Wednesday), accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 238k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. EIA energy inventories are also on tap. Initial jobless claims may retreat 14k to 244k (Thursday) for the April 1 week. In addition to the jobs report (Friday) will be the wholesale trade report and February consumer credit, expected to rebound to $18 bln vs $8.8 bln. FOMC minutes are due Wednesday from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first rate hike of 2017. But the Fed also surprised with a less hawkish stance than was feared by the markets, especially with respect to the dot plot where the median estimate called for only two more tightenings in 2017, for a total of three.

Canada: A busy week begins with the BoC’s Outlook Survey (Monday), which expected to show increased optimism as the recovery maintains momentum. However, indicators of capacity should remain consistent with still ample spare capacity, while employment measures reflect ongoing slack in the labor market. The trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to grow 2.0% in February after the 5.4% gain in January. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 20.0k in March after the 15.3k gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.6%. Governor Poloz offered a cautious view of Canada’s economy, saying in effect that the recent few odd firm data point should not make us forget about the numerous downside risk surrounding the outlook for Canada’s economy. Hence, another run of firm data will not change our view that the Bank will hold policy steady at next week’s announcement (April 12) and though the first half of 2018. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to improve to 57.0 in March from 55.0 in February.

Europe: The Brexit process has officially begun, but both sides have merely set down pretty much as-expected positions. For Eurozone markets, at least, the Brexit issue has been overshadowed by the conflicting voices coming out of the ECB council ahead of the April meeting. Draghi did leave the easing bias in place in March, but pressure to drop return to a more neutral stance is mounting as data suggests upside risks to Q1 GDP numbers. Draghi is still insisting that rates can go down further, national central bank heads continue to talk about tapering and the sequencing of exit steps. Draghi will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance when he speaks in Frankfurt on Tuesday and Thursday and the minutes of the March meeting (Thursday), should give some indication of the extent on the discussion on the forward guidance at the last meeting.Data releases this week include the final readings of March PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 56.6 and the services PMI (Wednesday) at 56.6 Initial readings were better than anticipated and already pointed to an upside risk to Q1 GDP projections and German manufacturing orders (Thursday) and industrial production (Friday) for February will be watched carefully in that respect. The data calendar also has retail sales, German trade data and French production numbers.

UK: The focus will remain on the early stages of the Brexit process, though hard negotiations between the UK and the EU are not likely to start until after German elections in September. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the March PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.9, up from 54.6. Improving global demand coupled with the benefits of post-Brexit vote sterling weakness is underpinning the sector. The services PMI (Wednesday) has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior. Industrial production for February is also due (Friday), which is expected to rise 0.2% m/m after the 0.4% m/m contraction in the previous month.

Japan: In Japan, the March Tankan report (Monday) is seen rising to 12 from 10 for large manufacturers, and to 20 from 18 for large non-manufacturers. March auto sales are also due Monday. March consumer confidence (Thursday) is forecast to improve to 43.5 from 43.1.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is busy this week, highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). RBA expected to hold rates steady at the accommodative 1.50% setting. Governor Lowe provides remarks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner (Tuesday). Alex Heath, the Bank’s Head of Economic Analysis Department participates in a panel (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Debelle speaks on Recent Trends in Australian Capital Flow (Thursday). The slate of economic data is relatively busy this week. Retail sales (Monday) are expected to grow 0.4% m/m in February after an identical 0.4% rise in January. Building permits (Monday) are seen falling 2.0% in February after the 1.8% rise in January. ANZ job ads for March and the Melbourne Institute inflation index for March are also due on Monday. The February trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to expand to A$2.5 bln from A$1.3 bln in January.

New Zealand: March QV house prices due Wednesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund futures extended yesterday’s gains in opening trade, as DAX futures head south in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session in Asia, where China and Taiwan remained closed for a holiday. Ongoing Yen strength is hitting exports and the RBA’s policy announcement, which left rates unchanged did little to cheer up the ASX. Investors continue to hold back ahead of the meeting between U.S. and China and FOMC and ECB minutes as well as U.S. jobs data at the end of the week. And with the European data calendar very quiet, Draghi’s speech is the only thing that could shake up things.

U.S. reports: revealed firm readings for March ISM and February construction spending, though we’re also seeing a 4% March drop in vehicle sales that trimmed our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. For the ISM, there was only a small March drop to 57.2 from a 30-month high of 57.7 in February, and the jobs index surged to a 6-year high of 58.9 from 54.2. Robust producer sentiment readings is allowing the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to sustain the 57 cycle-high from February, and this combined with other robust soft-data signals upside risk for our 220k March nonfarm payroll estimate as discussed in today’s commentary. For construction, a 0.8% February bounce after upward revisions beat estimates, with strength in new home construction and improvement that likely reflected mild weather, though with weakness in nonresidential construction and a January upward public construction revision that trimmed recent gyrations.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Harker repeated 3 rate hikes would be appropriate in 2017, in his prepared remarks on Privately Issued Digital Money “Won’t Drive Out” Existing Currencies, assuming things stay on track. But he said, there’s no need to rush. The tightening should be gradual in pace and incremental. Inflation is moving slowly but surely higher, while unemployment is at or near its natural rate. Harker is a voter this year, but these leanings suggest no urgency. Fed dove Dudley also had a speech yesterday. Mr. Dudley stuck to the script on student debt, which he sees as one potential headwind to economic growth that “could help lower the equilibrium Fed funds rate.” He views rising college costs and student debt burdens as potentially inhibiting U.S. upward income mobility, while overall student loan debt could hurt U.S. homeownership and consumer spending. Other than the tangential reference to the equilibrium Fed funds rate, there’s not much here for the markets to trade. See his “Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Household Borrowing, Student Debt Trends and Homeownership, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.”

Australia: The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance, as had been general expected following its April policy meeting. The statement by Governor Lowe noted improving global conditions, highlighting infrastructure spending and property construction in China, but noting that the domestic economy remains in transition following the end of the mining investment boom, with low wage growth persisting and underlying inflation seen rising only gradually. Lowe stuck with a focus on the Australian dollar, repeating that “an appreciating exchange rate would complicate” the economy’s transition phase. AUDJPY showing particularly sharp declines over the last couple of sessions. AUDJPY, which can be seen as a forex barometer of global risk appetite, is trading at levels last seen in early December. The RBA’s repetition of its desire to see the exchange rate remain a weaker level following its widely-expected decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50%, helped today weigh on the Aussies.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – The Construction PMI has as anticipating an almost unchanged reading of 52.4 after 52.5 in the month prior.

ECB – ECB President Draghi will speak in Frankfurt where he will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance.

US Trade Balance – February trade data expected to post a 7.2% improvement to a -$44.9 bln for the month from -$48.5 bln in January. The advance data on goods and service trade showed an improvement with that deficit narrowing to -$64.8 bln from -$68.8 bln in January.

Canadian Trade Balance – The trade report, expected to show a slight erosion in the surplus to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Energy exports are seen improving, as crude oil prices were modestly higher in February while natural gas prices were nearly flat on a month average basis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2017.

FX News Today

U.S. reports: China and Twaian were leading Asian markets higher after returning from holidays. Elsewhere gains were more muted and the Hang Seng is slightly in the red, as investors eye the Trump-Xi meeting. Bets on potential gains from the development of a so-called economic zone in Hebei province helped to lift China, while benchmarks in Japan and Australia fluctuated as currency advances weighted on exporters FTSE 100 futures are higher, but U.S. futures are in the red. Oil prices are up on the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.38 per barrel. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index was in line with expectations. The European data calendar still has final services PMI readings for the Eurozone, as well as the U.K. services PMI. Eurozone officials are once again trying to hammer out a deal with Greece that will allow the payment of the next aid tranche.

US reports: revealed stronger than expected trade deficit data and factory goods figures that closely tracked assumptions, leaving a net boost to our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 1.2%, after Q4 growth of 2.1%. For the trade deficit, we saw a February narrowing to $43.6 bln from a 5-year high of $48.2 bln, leaving a gap that was $1.4 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report after a $0.3 bln narrowing in January. For factory goods, the data matched estimates with lean February nondurable increases of 0.2% for shipments and orders and 0.1% for inventories. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, equipment and inventories that slightly lifted most levels.

ECB’s Liikanen: Strong monetary support still needed. The Governing Council member told Germany’s Handelsblatt, that “strong monetary support is still needed”, as the improvements seen so far are not big enough to “fundamentall” change the central bank’s guidance. Liikanen admitted that there were discussions at the last meeting and “there are a lot of opinions in the Governing Council”, adding that the statement did notice some improvements and tweaked some parts of the forward guidance, but added that the ECB “emphasized that interest rates will remain low beyond the end of asset purchases”. According to Liikanen that was “undisputed” although “there were discussions about what is meant by the words ‘current or lower levels’. The comments highlight the increasingly divergent views at the ECB as the central bank is starting to think about exit strategies and a phasing out of QE.

Canada: Canada’s February trade puts a damper on the Q1 GDP outlook, which was riding high after the stunning 0.6% m/m surge in January GDP lifted prospects for Q1 GDP to the 3.5% area. But the February trade balance sets up a sizable drag on Q1 growth from net exports. USDCAD revealed little immediate reaction to the twin Canada/U.S. trade reports, where the U.S. deficit narrowed more than expected, and the expected Canadian surplus turned to a deficit. The pairing has since rallied to new three-week highs of 1.3456 however, even as oil prices move to session highs near $50.70. The Canada trade report has thrown cold water on expectations for Q1 GDP, apparently to the detriment of the CAD.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC – FOMC minutes are due today from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first-rate hike of 2017.

UK Service PMI – The services PMI has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior.

EU Service PMI – The Eurozone services PMI expected to stay unchanged at 56.5, while Germany’s expected to stay unchanged as well at 55.6.

ADP Employment & ISM Non-Manuf. PMI – The MBA mortgage market report will be released today, accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 187k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. Markit services PMI are due, alongside ISM Non-Manufacturing index seen easing to 57.0 in March vs 57.6.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2017.

FX News Today

U.S. reports: Bund futures moved higher in after hour trade yesterday after the Fed minutes showed that the Fed discussed scaling back its balance sheet later in the year, which knocked U.S. stocks off highs and weighed on markets in Asia. The Nikkei is down -1.45%, ASX and Hang Seng is also in the red as are U.K. stock futures. The DAX already underperformed yesterday and is likely to continue to head south against that background, which will underpin European bond futures and keep a lid on yields. Investors also remain cautious ahead of the Trump Xi meeting. In Europe, the ECB will release its minutes and ECB President Draghi will speak at the opening of a conference, with markets looking for clues on the state of the debate on the future of asset purchases and the assessment of Nowotny’s call to hike the deposit rate ahead of the end of QE. Data releases include Swiss inflation data and Eurozone retail and construction PMIs.

US reports: 263k March ADP rise beat 187k estimation, following a trimming in the February ADP rise to 245k (was 298k) that narrowed the gap to the 227k private payroll increase in that month. There was a surprisingly large 82k March goods employment gain with outsized increases of 49k for construction and 30k for factories that explained the March overshoot, alongside a 4k rise for mining and an expected 181k service employment gain. The ADP figures overshot private payrolls by a whopping 71k in February, after overshoots of 25k in January, 3k in December, 38k in November, and 15k in October to leave an average overshoot since the October methodology change of 30k, hence diminishing the significance of today’s 38k overshoot of our March nonfarm payroll estimates. Additionally,the U.S. ISM-NMI drop to a 5-month low of 55.2 reversed the February climb to a 16-month high of 57.6 in February from 56.5 in January, while declines in the employment and new order components allowed a drop in the ISM-adjusted reading to a 7-month low of 53.9 from a 16-month high of 56.5 in February and 54.8 in January.

FOMC minutes: “most” participants could see a change in the reinvestment policy later in the year, but views were mixed on how and when the changes would occur. The minutes to the March 14, 15 FOMC meeting also indicated “many” emphasized that shrinking the size of the balance sheet should be done in a “passive and predictable manner.” Also, both Treasuries and MBS should be a part of the reinvestment changes. But, there was also discussion of costs and benefits of phasing out or ceasing all at once the reinvestment of principal. Meanwhile, on interest rates, nearly all officials thought the U.S. was at full employment. Overall economic risks were generally balanced, but many saw upside risk to the economy from fiscal policy. There were various views on the extent of labor market slack, as well as how close inflation was to the 2% goal. And while there were no clear indications that policymakers were ready to pull the tightening trigger again as soon as May, there weren’t any signs the FOMC was ready to abandon its tightening path either.

Germany: Feb manufacturing orders rose 3.4% m/m, slightly less than anticipated, but with January revised up to -6.8% m/m from -7.4% m/m, the annual rate nevertheless jumped to 4.6% y/y. Domestic orders rebounded strongly from the slump at the start of the year, while export orders stagnated as a dip in orders from other Eurozone countries, the second in a row, counterbalanced a rise in orders from non-EMU countries. All in all broadly in line with expectations, and together with confidence data confirming that the recovery remains on track, which adds to Weidmann’s calls for a phasing out of asset purchases.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB – ECB president Draghi will speak in Frankfurt today, while and the minutes of the March ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are also today as well.

Trump-Xi – Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Florida to meet President Trump, with the President saying North Korea will be high up on the agenda.

US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may retreat 8k to 250k for the April 1 week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed with Japan outperforming. Risk aversion spiked after a U.S. missile strike in Syria and a strong Yen weighed on exporters, but the Nikkei managed to bounce back and is up 0.41% on the day, with Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. rising strongly as crude oil prices jumped above USD 52 per barrel. The Hang Seng is down -0.64% and CSI and ASX are little changed, while U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south amid a fresh bout of risk aversion. This should keep Bund and Gilt futures underpinned going into the weekend. Trump hailed a new “friendship” with China’s Xi in the early hours of their meeting. The European calendar has German trade and production data at the start of the session. France and the U.K. also release production numbers and markets will be looking ahead to U.S. nonfarm payroll numbers in the afternoon.

President Trump uncorked a salvo of 50-60 missiles on an airbase in Syria in retaliation for the Assad chemical attack on his own citizens, which was apparently launched from that same base. Trump says he’s calling on all nations to seek the end of slaughter and bloodshed in Syria. It certainly serves as a warning shot to the Syrian regime and others that the new administration plans to back up its words with force, but comes at an awkward time in Russo-U.S. relations while meeting with the Chinese Premier in Florida. The risk averse yen rallied in wake of the strike, while gold shot over $1,260 and the T-note yield plunged from 2.35% to 2.30% before finding support. .US. informed Russia in advance of airstrikes on the Shayrat Airfield and did not target areas of the base where Russian forces were believed to be present, according to Secretary of State Tillerson. He warned that Russia failed to carry out a 2013 agreement to secure Syrian chemical weapons, and that Moscow was “either complicit or incompetent in its ability to carry out the agreement.” Tillerson said the strike was proportionate after a high degree of confidence that Sarin nerve gas was used in a chemical weapons attack.

US reports: The 25k U.S. initial claims plunge to 234k in the first week of April extended a 2k drop to 259k to leave claims back near the 44-year low of 227k in the President’s Day week. Despite the early-March pop, claims have remained below the 2016 average of 263k in every week of 2017. We have a late-Easter this year on April 16, versus an early-Easter last year on March 27, and this may be adding volatility to the March-April claims figures.

German production data much stronger than expected, with overall production rising 2.2% m/m in February from. German trade surplus widens as imports decline. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 21.1 bln in February, up from EUR 18.9 bln in the previous month, as export growth slowed down to 0.8% m/m from 2.4% m/m and imports dropped -1.6% m/m after rising 2.8% m/m in January. This is nominal data, that has been heavily impacted by oil price developments and import prices, but data are pointing to a rise in net exports in the first quarter of the year, at least on a nominal basis.

Main Macro Events Today

US Employment – March employment data should reveal a 180k headline for the month. This compares to 235k in February and 238k in January. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.7% from February, down from 4.8% in January. The balance of risk is to the upside as producer sentiment, consumer confidence and initial claims data all remained strong in March.

Canada Employment – Employment, expected, to 5.0k in March after the 15.3k gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.7%. Governor Poloz offered a cautious view of Canada’s economy, saying in effect that the recent few odd firm data point should not make us forget about the numerous downside risk surrounding the outlook for Canada’s economy.

BOE – BoE Gov. Carney is due to speak at Thomson Reuters in London.

UK Manufacturing Production – Manufacturing production for February is also due today, which expected to rise 0.3% m/m after the 0.9% m/m contraction in the previous month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2017.

FX News Today

Geopolitical risks will add to edgy market tone. The markets were fairly resilient to news of the U.S. missile strike on a Syrian airbase, on top of a soft March jobs report. But after knee-jerk risk-aversion trades, the focus shifted back to the bearish implications of the FOMC minutes where the discussion of balance sheet normalization suggested a more hawkish Fed stance versus the view of a “dovish tightening” on March 15th. Lots will be in play this week. Traders will look to gauge the global reaction and fallout from Syria, while inflation and production data highlight the economic calendar. Easter holidays will quiet trading into the weekend.

United States: U.S. markets were whipsawed Friday by the surprise news of the missile strike on Syria and the much weaker than expected jobs report, while late afternoon comments from NY Fed’s Dudley knocked bonds and stocks lower. Syria sparked flight to safety, risk aversion trade, which saw bond yields and stock prices dive. But, Dudley’s remarks that suggested a potential delay in rate hikes once balance sheet normalization began would only be a “little” pause, started a selloff and Treasury yields bounced closed at session highs. This week’s economic calendar is light, with key reports not out until Friday, where the markets will be closed for Good Friday. Hence calendar doesn’t come into focus until the end of the week when March CPI and retail sales will be reported. CPI is expected to be flat in March after edging up 0.1% in February. Retail sales for March are also expected to be unchanged following the 0.1% gain in February, due to weakness in gas and autos. The preliminary April consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan survey is also on tap (Thursday). Confidence is projected to have bounced to 97.5, after edging up to 96.9 in March from February’s 2.2 point drop to 96.3. Other data during the week includes February JOLTS job openings, along with the NFIB small business survey (Tuesday), trade prices for March, along with the Treasury budget (Wednesday), as well as weekly initial jobless claims and March PPI (Thursday).

Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen will be on tap (Monday) when she will speak at the University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy. She will also take questions, and it’s likely she’ll be asked to expound on normalization of the balance sheet, as well as the Fed’s rate path. The dovish voter Kashkari will participate in a Q&A session (Tuesday). And the centrist-hawk Kaplan will speak (Wednesday).

Canada: The BoC’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) dominate the domestic proceedings this week. The announcement (Wednesday) is expected to reveal no change in the current 0.50% policy setting alongside a cautiously constructive take on the growth and inflation outlook. Economic data is confined to just a few releases, but they are of interest. Housing starts (Monday) is expected to show a 210.0k growth rate for March, which would be little changed from the firm 210.2k rate in February. The manufacturing survey (Thursday) should show a 1.0% drop in shipment values during February after the 0.6% gain in January. A broad-based 2.4% plunge in February export values underpins our manufacturing shipment estimate. The new home price index (Thursday) is anticipated to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% increase in January. The Teranet/National Bank housing price index for March is due Wednesday. Markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday Holiday.

Europe: The focus this week will be mainly on the final March inflation numbers. The initial readings came in lower than anticipated, but were impacted by the later timing of Easter this year, which also means holiday related prices should pick up later. So, the expected confirmation of German HICP (Thursday) at 1.5%, the French at 1.4% and the Italian at 1.3% y/y does not change the overall view that inflation is trending higher against the background of ongoing growth and improvements in labor markets. The highlight of the week is German April ZEW Investor Confidence (Tuesday) expected to rise to 13.2 from 12.8, with geo-political risk factors, the prospect of further Fed tightening, and the ECB’s discussions on rates tapering expected to weigh on sentiment and prevent a more pronounced improvement. Other releases include Eurozone production numbers (Tuesday), while Germany sells EUR 3 bln of 10-year Bunds (Wednesday).

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by March inflation data (Tuesday) and employment numbers covering February and March (Wednesday), along with the March BRC retail sales survey (Thursday).

Japan: The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,500.0 bln, from 65.5 bln in January. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at up 3.0% versus the 3.2% decline in January. March PPI meanwhile (Wednesday) is forecast to heat up to 1.3% y/y from 1.0% in February. Revised February industrial production is due Friday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is headlined by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Thursday), which is published twice a year. Economic data features March employment (Thursday), expected to show a 10.0k rebound in total jobs following the 6.4k decline in February. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.9%, matching February. A 1.0% gain in housing finance (Monday) is anticipated for February after the 0.5% improvement in January.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is again sparse. Retail card spending (Tuesday) is of some interest however, as spending is seen rebounding 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.6% decline in January that was the first pull-back in five months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south with Nikkei and Topix under pressure as a stronger Yen dragged down exporters and financials. Australia’s ASX was a notable outperformer in Asia. U.S. and European stock futures are also in the red, and oil prices have corrected from levels above USD 53 per barrel with the front end Nymex future currently trading at USD 52.95. Already released U.K. BRC retail sales data came in weaker than expected and showed like for like sales down -1.0%. Still to come the European calendar has German ZEW investor confidence as well as U.K. inflation data and Eurozone production numbers.

Fed Chair Yellen said it’s appropriate for the Fed to gradually raise rates if the economy continues to perform as expected, reiterating a long-standing policy view. She added that the economy is “pretty healthy.” She expects the economy to continue growing at a moderate pace. The global economy is also operating in a more robust way. Inflation is also reasonably close to the FOMC’s target. She noted the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in the March report, and said inflation is reasonably close” though still a little under the 2% goal. The 5-year price measure does show price expectations ticking up however. Most on the FOMC don’t believe inflation is a significant problem at all. So far she hasn’t revealed anything new, nor has she discussed the balance sheet.

White House statements on Syria form the loose outlines of a policy in the region, suggesting that more strikes are possible and containing the Islamic State offers the greatest potential to provide relief to Syria’s citizens. ISIS’ defeat would bring about conditions for new leadership in Syria through the political process. The DoD meanwhile claimed that U.S. missile strikes destroyed 20% of Syria’s operational aircraft. Reality may be a bit more complex, however, since Syria’s Assad is also fighting ISIS, however reprehensible his attacks on his own people. There’s also no room for mistakes, with Russian personnel and equipment on the battle field. Market risk aversion remains elevated and volatility higher, but there’s been limited immediate reaction to these headlines. Oil and gold are settling near the highs of the month.

Melenchon overtakes Fillon in latest French poll. The latest Ifop poll for the first round of the French Presidential election April 23 confirms the trend already seen yesterday, namely that Le Pen and Macron are falling back, while leftist EU critic Melenchon is catching up. The Ifop poll today showed Le Pen and Macron down 2.5% points compared to the last poll at 24% and 23% respectively. Decisively though, unlike the polls so far Fillon is no longer in third place, but leftist EU critic Melenchon has overtaken him and is now polling 19%. So far nothing has changed and Macron and Le Pen are set to go through to the second round, where Macron is tipped to win with a large margin. However, is Melenchon also manages to overtake Macron, the contest would be between two EU critics from either side of the spectrum, difficult to call and poison for markets. French yields already blew out yesterday and are likely to remain under upward pressure ahead of the election.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation – Consumer prices expected to come in at 2.3% y/y, unchanged from February. Producer Prices input expected to fall to 3.3% from 3.7% on February.

German ZEW – A slight rise is expected in the headline ZEW expectations reading to 14.0 from 12.8, with geo-political risk factors, the prospect of further Fed tightening, and the ECB’s discussions on rates and tapering expected to weigh on sentiment and prevent a more pronounced improvement.

FOMC – The dovish voter Kashkari will participate in a Q&A session, at the Minnesota Business Partnership, in Minneapolis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Japanese stocks headed south in Asia overnight, with the Nikkei losing more than 1% as the Yen strengthened and risk aversion continues to weigh on markets. Once again exporters and financials were mostly hit. Other Asian markets are narrowly mixed, U.K. futures are slightly higher, but U.S. futures are also down. Geo-political concerns continue to weigh on sentiment and curtail risk appetite, which is also pushing out Eurozone spreads, with French markets also jittery ahead of the Presidential election as leftist EU-critic Melenchon continues to catch up in the polls. Oil prices continue to climb and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.51 per barrel. The European calendar has April inflation data from Spain and Portugal as well as U.K. labour market data.

US reports: U.S. Jobs openings climbed 118k in February to 5,743k, from a revised 86k increase in January to 5,625k. The rate was edged up to 3.8% from the 3.7% that had been in place for months. However, the rest of the report was on the weaker side. Hiring’s declined 110k to 5,314k following the 121k increase in January to 5,424k. The rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.7%. Quitters also declined, falling 102k to 3,084k after surging 101k to 3,186k. The rate fell to 2.1% from 2.2%. The slippage in some of the January data are consistent with the downward revisions seen in Friday’s employment report. But the data are still in line with a solid jobs environment.

Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.3% m/m in February, largely due to a -4.7% m/m decline in energy production, which came after a 2.0% m/m rise in January and to a large extend reflects weather conditions over the first two months of the year. The unexpected contraction doesn’t necessarily mean a slowdown in underlying growth conditions and the annual rate bounced back to 1.2% y/y from just 0.2% y/y reported initially. Confidence numbers though have been encouraging and still suggest that the recovery continues, even if weather and Easter effect are likely to distort GDP numbers over the first two quarters of this year.

German ZEW investor confidence jumps to 19.5 in April, from 12.8 in March. The stronger than expected reading lifted the 3 months’ trend rate for the first time since January and with the current conditions indicator also improving the data suggests that the German recovery remains on track.

Main Macro Events Today

BOC Policy Report and Rate Statement – No change in the 0.50% rate setting is expected in today’s announcement, along with a modestly improved growth and inflation outlook that is tempered by ample caution amid still elevated downside risk to the economy.

UK Unemployment Rate – The jobs report expected to show the unemployment rate also remaining unchanged at 4.7%.

President Trump – President Trump is going to give an interview on Fox Business Network at 10 GMT, regarding healthcare, tax reform and Syria issue.

US Crude Oil Inventories – Expected to fall to -0.7M from 1.6M last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down, with ASX and Nikkei selling off as risk aversion continues to dominate. This also saw Eurozone spreads widening again, although French election jitters at least seem to have eased, which is helping French bond spreads to come in again. Today’s calendar should be bond friendly, with final March inflation data from Germany, France and Italy to confirm the marked deceleration already evident in the preliminary numbers. However, base effects from the later timing of Easter a largely to blame, so the underlying uptrend remains intact, even if core is still to low for Draghi’s liking.

US reports: The firm round of March U.S. trade price data followed mostly upward prior revisions, despite the expected March petroleum import price drop and a strong dollar, leaving a clear uptrend in U.S. trade prices since the oil price trough in February of 2016. Price strength remains skewed toward exports, as seen through most of 2016, after the opposite pattern temporarily emerged in January. The data signal modest upside risk for the remaining inflation reports for March. Import prices have mostly received a lift over the past year from oil prices, though we’re seeing an additional lift from recovering growth abroad and the inventory upturn, alongside OPEC production restraint.

German March HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.5% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary number and down from 2.2% y/y in February. Base effects from energy prices, but also the later timing of Easter are a key reason behind the drop back below the ECB’s 2% limit. The Easter effect meant holiday related prices including package holidays, flights and some services prices related to holidays pick up later this year compared to 2016, when Easter fell into March, so while the headline rate fell back in March this year, it is already set to pick up again in April. The underlying trend is also pointing higher and with rents picking up and the labour market very tight, the risk of a broader rise in prices including second round effects is also rising. No wonder then that Bundesbank President Weidmann continues to argue that the time to think about a phasing out of QE and a return to a neutral stance on rates has come.

Bank of Canada: The announcement, MPR and press conference provided the usual hefty helping of growth, inflation and risk projections/assessment. The BoC held rates steady at 0.50%, matching widespread expectations. Their outlook for growth and inflation was modestly upgraded but still laced with caution, as they remained “mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook.” Despite the upbeat domestic data since January and a strengthening and broadening in global growth, the Bank was clear that “material excess capacity remains.” While the Bank did upgrade the growth and inflation outlook, uncertainty remains elevated and Poloz said the Bank is “neutral” in terms of rate cuts or hikes. The Governor said rates are “at the appropriate level given what we see.” Indeed, “The data speak, but the data have not been uniformly positive” but much better than they were for the past year. He reminded that we had a similar run of data last year, and it gave way to things flattening out last year. So “It is right for us to remain cautious.”

Main Macro Events Today

Us Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – The preliminary April consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan survey is on tap. Confidence is projected to have bounced to 97.5, after edging up to 96.9 in March from February’s 2.2 point drop to 96.3.

Canada NHPI and Manufacturing Sales – The manufacturing survey should show a 1.0% drop in shipment values during February after the 0.6% gain in January. The new home price index is anticipated to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% increase in January.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims – Weekly initial jobless claims (expected at 245K) and March PPI (expected at 0.0%) are also on tap today.

BOC Gov Poloz – BOC Gov Poloz will give a speech today in Ottawa along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund and Gilt futures lost some of their earlier gains during the European PM session, as stock markets moved up from lows. Yields are also up from lows, but the Bund yield is still down -0.8 bp on the day and the Gilt down -1.2 bp as stock markets remain in negative territory. Risk aversion remains the main driving factor as trading slowed down ahead of the long Easter holiday weekend, with key European markets closed both today and next Monday. Eurozone spreads came in with France continuing to outperform as election jitters eased again. The Gilt curve flattened as the long end outperformed, while in Germany it was the short end that benefited most today, with the 2-year Schatz yield down -2.0 bp, while the 2-year Gilt was up 0.2 bp and the French up 1.0 bp.

US reports: revealed a lean round of March core PPI figures, alongside another super-tight claims reading of 234k, an April Michigan sentiment bounce to 98.0 that sits just below its 13-year high of 98.5 in January, and a bounce in the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index to 51.0 that also sits just below its 10-year high of 51.3 in mid-March. For March PPI, a 0.1% headline drop with a flat core price figure reflected an expected energy hit but a 0.1% service price decline. For claims, a 1k downtick leaves an April average of just 234k, versus higher prior averages of 251k in March, 241k in February, and 246k in January, leaving upside risk for our 190k April payroll estimate.

The Aussie was the biggest winner yesterday out of the main currencies, showing a 1.2% advance on the euro, which is the day’s loser, and a 0.7% gain versus the U.S. dollar and just over a 1% advance on the yen. The rebound was initially sparked in AUDUSD by Trump’s remarks on forex levels, coming with the Aussie ripe for an upward snap after a period of pronounced underperformance into a long weekend. AUDUSD clocked a nine-day peak at 0.7595. The pair has retraced about one third of declines seen from March highs. AUDUSD and AUDJPY, on the view that geopolitical tensions are likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead (there are reports of satellite evidence showing that North Korea is preparing another nuclear test, and Japanese PM Abe said today that Pyongyang may have the capability to launch sarin nerve gas warheads).

Canada: Risk aversion remained the general trend on Thursday. Though some short covering into the long holiday weekend helped pare the losses in stocks, news that the U.S. dropped the massive and largest non-nuclear bomb (MOAB) on the caves in the Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan, targeting a “series of Islamic State caves,” extended the selloff. The S&P/TSX was the underperformer in North America, in part as energy weighed. Wall Street’s recovery was undone by the blast and prices resumed their downturn after a prior short covering bid was halted. Thin trading ahead of the long Easter weekend may have added to some of the markets’ moves too. There was little reaction to the manufacturing and home price data. Canada’s new housing price index grew 0.4% m/m in February after the 0.1% gain in January. Canada manufacturing dipped just 0.2% m/m in February after a revised 0.1% gain in January (was +0.6%). The decline in February was shallower than expected (median -0.9%) given the 2.4% plunge in export values.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – March retail sales data is out today and should reveal a flat headline (median unchanged) with a 0.3% ex-autos rate. This compares to February figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the ex-autos rate at 0.2%.

US Business Inventories – February business inventory data should post a 0.3% increase for inventories, sales should also be up by 0.3%. This follows a 0.3% January inventory figure and 0.2% for shipments that month.

US CPI – March CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.0% headline from 0.1% with the core flat at 0.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2017.

FX News Today

Political events and will remain firmly in focus this week. The market resurrection since the November election is being assaulted from all angles as the asset allocation pendulum swings back in favour of safety and away from risk. Divergent signals are evident from “hard data” such as weak retail sales and GDP versus “soft data” like surging consumer confidence and ISMs. After campaigning against U.S. globalism and interventionism, Trump continues to speak loudly on Twitter, but is now carrying a big stick. Intervention in Syria and Afghanistan and now with a US Strike Group off the Korean peninsula risks signals continue to ramp up. Elsewhere France goes to the polls at the weekend and President Erdogan appears to have won the referendum in Turkey. Gold trades at $1,290.00

United States: The economic calendar resumes with the Empire State index forecast to slip (Monday) to 15.0 in April from 16.4 in March, along with an update on the NAHB housing market index, seen easing to 70 in April from 71. Housing starts are expected to sink 0.6% in March to a 1,280k pace (Tuesday), though permits are seen rising to 1,260k from 1,216k. Industrial production is set to grow 0.3% in March from 0.1% (Tuesday), while capacity use rises to 76.1% from 75.9%. MBA mortgage applications may again be positively impacted (Wednesday) by the drop in rates with increased geopolitical risks, while EIA energy inventories remain fluid. The Philly Fed index may take a hit (Thursday) and decline to 25.0 in April after the surge to 32.8 in March. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound (Thursday) 14k to 248k for the week ending April 15, while the leading indicators index may rise 0.2% in March (median 0.2%) vs 0.6%. The week rounds out (Friday) with April Markit PMI and March existing home sales set to rebound 3.1% to a 5.65 mln pace from 5.48 mln in February. A small handful of Fedspeakers will be on hand this week including, George, Resengren and Kaskari . Earnings continue this week and include; Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Morgan Stanley and Verizon.

Canada: Only CPI and Homes sales of note this week. We expect CPI (Friday) to expand 0.5% m/m in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gasoline prices tracked higher through March. Meanwhile, total CPI is seen slowing to a 1.9% y/y pace in March from 2.0% in February. The trio of core measures remained muted in February, consistent with a tame backdrop of underlying inflation growth. The March existing home sales report is also due Tuesday. Total existing home sales jumped 5.2% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, and another firm reading would not be a shock.

Europe: Another holiday-shortened week, with most markets still closed Monday for Easter holiday celebrations. Political event risks are moving back into focus meanwhile as the first round of the French Presidential Election on April 23 draws nearer. The data calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.5% and core inflation at just 0.7%. The fall back clearly below the 2% limit in March is partly due to the later timing of Easter this year, which saw holiday related prices rising in April rather than March, so the data doesn’t change the picture of gradually rising headline rates, which will keep pressure on Draghi and Co to at least drop the implicit easing bias from the statement, even if the QE schedule is confirmed until the end of the year.

UK: London markets reopen after the Easter break on Tuesday. The calendar is quiet, and Brexit related developments are likely to remain limited ahead of the April-29 EU summit, while negotiations aren’t likely to start in earnest until after German elections in September. The only data release of note this week is retail sales for March (Friday), which we expect to decline 0.3% m/m (median same) and February’s 1.4% m/m gain..

Japan: The March trade report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a narrowed JPY 500.0 bln surplus, versus the revised 813.5 bln in February.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the April meeting (Tuesday) is the main event, and there may be little of interest in the minutes. The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance in April, as had been general expected. Economic data is in short supply.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed after returning from the holidays, with ASX and Hang Seng selling off, while the Nikkei close up 0.35% at 18,418. Australia’s market was hit by a drop in the mining sector amid the slump in iron ore and as concerns about the housing sector is denting the recent optimism in financials. The Hang Seng was hit by catch up trades after losses on mainland exchanges. FTSE 100 futures are also down, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Oil prices are little changed, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.65 per barrel. Geopolitical factors continue to weigh and European markets have to digest Erdogan’s narrow victory in his bid to extend the presidential powers and the prospect of a tight Presidential election in France on the weekend. Amid this core bond markets are likely to remain supported and Draghi will keep a close eye on spread amid lingering risk aversion. Today’s calendar is unlikely to bring major surprises, with the final Eurozone HICP reading for March expected to be confirmed at 1.5% and EMU trade numbers usually not a market mover.

RBA Minutes: Steady rates consistent with growth and inflation targets, labour and housing markets “warranted careful monitoring” in coming months, Labour market somewhat weaker than expected, keeping wage growth low, Household consumption growth little weaker than expected in early 2017. CPI expected to pick up above 2 pct in 2017, core inflation to rise more slowly. RBA minutes repeats a rising in A$ would complicate economic adjustment, GDP likely expanded at moderate pace in Q1, impact of cyclone Debbie unlikely to be large. Commodity prices to boost national income in Q1, but terms of trade to decline from here, saw rising risks in household debt, housing markets. Finally – global growth accelerating broadly, Chinese economy appeared to have strengthened; protectionist policies in US still a risk. AUD sold off overnight and AUD USD currently trades at 0.7554 down from Mondays high at 0.7610.

US Data Yesterday: The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 3 points to 68 in April after climbing 6 points to 71 in March (revised from 71), which was the highest since June 2005. It was 58 a year ago too. The single family sales index dipped 3 points to 74 after surging 6 points to 77 previously (revised from 78). But it’s been over 70 for five straight months, a sign of continued demand for new construction, according to the report. The future single family index fell 3 points to 75 after a 5 point pick up in March to 78. The index of prospective buyer traffic slipped 1 point to 52 from 53 (revised from 54). The Empire State headline plunged to a 5-month low of 5.2 from 16.4 in March and a 29-month high of 18.7 in February, versus a similar 6.5 in January. Yet the component data were mostly solid, and the ISM-adjusted Empire State remained unchanged at the 6-year high of 55.2 in March, versus 54.5 in February and 50.7 in January. The April headline drop coincided with declines in the orders and workweek components after big March increases, but all the remaining components rose.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer did not discuss the policy course in his prepared remarks on “Monetary Policy Expectations and Surprises.” Rather it was a more academic summation of the Fed’s communications. He also pondered, can the Fed be too predictable, to which he answered “it is hard to argue that predictability in our reaction to economic data could be anything but positive” and he noted the clarity of the Fed’s reaction function allows the market to anticipate Fed actions and smoothly adjust. However, there could be some difficulties with respect to unexpected shocks to the economy if it appeared the FOMC was not being sufficiently responsive to incoming data that might affect the outlook. He does not look for a major market disturbance akin to the taper tantrum this time around as the FOMC shrinks its balance sheet, especially given the limited market reaction to the indication in the March FOMC minutes that a wind-down.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Housing Starts – March housing starts data is out later and should reveal a 1,256k pace for starts, up from 1,246k in January and 1,279k in December. Permits for the month should be 1,260k, up from 1,216k in February and completions should be 1,120k from 1,114k in February. The March NAHB posted an increase to 71, up from 65 in February before dipping back to 68 in April.

U.S. Industrial Production – March industrial production data is also out today expectations are for a 0.4% headline gain after a 0.1% headline in February and -0.1% in January. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 76.1% from 75.9% in February. Mining and manufacturing hours worked from the March employment report were firm which could lend some upside risk to the headline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global sell off in equities continued in Asia overnight, as commodities continued to slide. Most Asian markets are in the red, with the Nikkei managing to outperform and holding on to slight gains as the Yen retreats and helps to underpin exporters. U.S. stock futures are higher, but U.K. futures are signaling a further slide in U.K. stocks, which were hit by a stronger Pound and May’s surprise announcement of a snap election on June 8 yesterday. The FTSE 100 closed with a nearly 2.5% loss on Tuesday and while Eurozone markets also headed south, losses were much more muted. Core bond futures had a bumpy ride yesterday, but Bund and Gilts managed to close higher in the end and with the Bund contract consolidating gains in after hour trade and U.K. stock futures still in the doldrums, it seems likely that Bund futures will remain supported at the open. French markets meanwhile remain under pressure ahead of Sunday’s first round of the Presidential election, as leftist EU critic Melenchon threatens to throw a spanner in the works. The European calendar has final Eurozone inflation data for March and EU trade numbers for February.

US reports: industrial production data that closely tracked estimates and a housing starts report that modestly fell short, though both reports documented a rebounding factory sector and a housing market that continues to grow despite March setbacks, with big winter distortions from a mild winter and weakness in the vehicle sector. For industrial production, a 0.5% headline rise reflected an 8.6% March surge in utility output after a 13.4% 6-month drop to a 13-year low, alongside a 3.8% vehicle assembly rate drop that partly explains the weak March jobs report. For housing, starts fell 6.8% in March alongside a 3.6% permits rise and a 3.2% climb for completions that proved particularly strong through the winter months.

UK: UK PM announced a snap general election for June 8, clearly looking for a strong mandate from the public as she heads into negotiations to take the UK out of the EU. May, having replaced Cameron mid-term as PM, would strength her position in the event that her Tory party wins the election, which does seem likely given the prevailing disarray of the opposition and with the economy having held up well since the vote to leave the EU last June. The political opposition in the UK is in a mess and the UK economy has performed robustly since the Brexit vote last June. The main opposition party, Labour, have formally supported Brexit in the wake of the referendum, while the much small Liberal Party, is against. The election doesn’t therefore seem likely to derail Brexit. The pound dove on news that PM was to make an announcement, though has recovered most of the losses and held steady when May confirmed the election. Sterling showed gain on the dollar and when averaged against the G3 currencies. The IMF has also raised its 2017 forecast for UK growth to 2.0% from 1.5% forecast in January, and up from the 1.0% growth it was forecast back in October. The IMF still warned that the eventuality of Brexit will dent trade, while there is a risk that Scottish independence will find further impetus as a consequence of the election.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone CPI – Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.5% and core inflation at just 0.7%. The fall back clearly below the 2% limit in March is partly due to the later timing of Easter this year, which saw holiday related prices rising in April rather than March, so the data doesn’t change the picture of gradually rising headline rates.

NZD CPI (Q1) – Q1 CPI, expected to reveal a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q4. The annual pace is projected to accelerate from 1.3% y/y in Q4, which would be supportive of our projection for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates steady at 1.75% though year end.

Japan Trade Balance – In Japan, the March trade report is expected to reveal a narrowed JPY 575.8 bln surplus, versus the revised 813.5 bln in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight, as oil recovered some of its recent losses and amid better than expected trade data out of Japan, which underpinned global growth optimism. U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, U.K. stock futures continue to underperform and remain in the red as ongoing Sterling strength weighs on the index. Elsewhere in Europe stock markets already moved higher yesterday and are likely to join the global stock rebound, which is likely to keep upward pressure on core European yields. Gilt futures have been underperforming in tandem with the FTSE 100 in recent days and in the Eurozone spreads are coming in, as policy markets indicate that its too early for a change in central bank policy thus laying the ground for a steady hand policy decision next week. French markets remain jittery ahead of Sunday’s election, which is turning into a four-way race. Today’s calendar is quiet. Germany has PPI inflation at the start of the session, the Eurozone releases construction output data and there is supply from Spain and France.

German PPI inflation steady at 3.1% y/y in March, unchanged from the previous month. Energy prices dropped over the month in March and contributed to a large extend to the steady headline rate. Excluding energy, however, PPI accelerated markedly to 2.6% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month and versus just 0.6% y/y in December. Clearly underlying inflation pressures are making a comeback, and more so in Germany than in some other parts of the Eurozone and while it is clear that the majority at the ECB doesn’t want to remove the insurance policy against geo-political risks and the flaring up of the debt crisis yet, the discussion about tapering and a gradual removal of the ECB’s policy support won’t go away.

Fed’s Beige Book repeated the economy rose at a modest to moderate pace, as is the usual characterization. Manufacturing grew at a modest to moderate clip, as did employment, though the labor market remains tight. Modest wage increases broadened, and there were bigger increases for skilled workers. Prices rose modestly with input prices generally outpacing gains in selling prices. Consumer spending was varied, with stronger auto sales somewhat offset by softer non-auto retail spending. Residential construction spending accelerated somewhat, even as home sales slowed, partly on a lack of inventory. Nonresidential construction remained strong, but became more mixed in some regions. The report surely keeps the Fed in play, but there’s no urgency for a hike next month, especially given some uncertainties noted over fiscal policy.

The UK parliament voted in favour of the June 8 election, a formality that had been widely anticipated following the prime minister’s calling of it. The vote was 522 to 13. The pound was consolidating gains since Tuesday, following the PM’s call for a snap election. The thinking in markets is that the Tory Party would likely win a much a bigger majority than present, if polls are to be believed, which would give the Prime Minister much more flexibility in upcoming negotiations with the EU. May will also have three years clear after actual Brexit in 2019 before having to hold a general election, which pundits reckon will also give her much greater leeway in forming a possible transitional trade agreement with the EU.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Claims data for the week of April 15 are out today and should post an increase to 240k from 234k last week and 235k the week prior. Claims continue to remain remarkably tight.

U.S. Philly Fed Index – The April Philly Fed expected to decline to 25.0 from 32.8 in March and 43.3 in February. The Empire State is already out and posted a decline to 5.2 from 16.4 in March.

BOE Gov. Carney – BOE Gov. Carney speech starts at 12:30 GMT at the Institute of International Finance Policy Summit, in Washington DC.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight, with Japan outperformed as the Yen weakened following indications from BoJ Governor Kuroda that he will keep the accommodative policy in place. Hopes of progress on Trump’s tax reform following comments from Treasury Secretary Munchin helped to underpin gains elsewhere. The move higher in Asia followed gains in the U.S. yesterday, but it remains to be seen how European markets, which mostly managed to close slightly higher, while the French CAC rallied on hopes that Macron will emerge as the winner in Sunday’s election, will react to the latest shootings in France. The EUR seemed little phased, but to close to the election, the incident could underpin support for Le Pen’s hard line stance in what already looks like a very tight race. US. and U.K. stock futures are higher and oil prices are also extending gains with the front end WTI future at USD 52.75 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings out of the Eurozone, which also has current account and BoP data. The U.K. releases retail sales for March.

FX Update: The majors have continued to hold narrow ranges into the risk event that is Sunday’s French presidential election, which presents polarized risks for the euro. EURUSD is holding in the lower 1.07s, consolidating after failing to sustain yesterday’s run to a three-week high at 1.077. USDJPY has settled around 109.00. The yen was briefly bid following news of the terrorist attack in Paris, which left two police dead, though impact proved limited. The yen subsequently dipped after BoJ’s Governor Kuroda made dovish remarks during an interview with Bloomberg TV, where he said, “we will stick with yield curve control” and that “we think the current pace of purchases and monetary base increase will continue for some time.” The reaffirmation that the BoJ is sticking to its dovish course, which contrasts with the Fed, and even the ECB, was enough to prompt a wave of yen selling, with USDJPY logged an intraday high at 107.42 before impetus faltered, leaving yesterday’s nine-day peal at 109.49 untested.

U.S. reports: initial jobless claims rose 10k to 244k in the week ended April 15 after slipping 1k to 234k previously, which followed the 24k plunge to 235k for the April 1 week. Continuing claims declined 49k to 1,979k in the April 8 week after dropping 7k to 2,028k previously. That’s a 17-year low. Claims may have been impacted by the Good Friday holiday. Meanwhile, despite the uptick in jobless claims, the data remain near historic lows and reflect a strong labor market, as noted in the Fed’s April Beige Book. U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 10.8 points to 22.0 in April following the 10.5 point drop to 32.8 in March. Those follow the surprisingly strong 19.7 point surge to 43.3 in February which was the highest level since January1984, and compares to the record high of 49.5 in July 1983.

Main Macro Events Today

EU PMI – The Easter effect may also have an impact on preliminary PMI readings for April, and manufacturing and services sector numbers differently. Eurozone’s manufacturing readings expected at 56.3 from 56.2, while the services sector number expected to be remain unchanged at 56.0, which should leave the composite marginally at 56.3 from 56.4 in March.

UK Retail sales – Retail sales for March, expected to decline 0.3% m/m and February’s 1.4% m/m gain. Meanwhile, total Retail Sales are seen slowing to a 3.4% y/y pace in March from 3.7% in February.

Canadian CPI – CPI, expected to expand 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gasoline prices tracked higher through March. Meanwhile, total CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in March from 2.0% in February. The Bank of Canada expressed cautious optimism that underlying CPI will gradually move back towards the 2% target.

US PMI & Existing Home Sales – The week rounds out with April Markit PMI and March existing home sales data expected at 2.5% increase in the headline pace to 5.60M from 5.480M in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2017.

FX News Today

Geopolitics have continued to dominate global markets long after the June 23 Brexit vote and the November 8 Trump victory. And the emphasis will remain on POLITICS this week too following the outcome of France’s presidential election (round 1), and ahead of a “big announcement” Wednesday from President Trump on his tax plan. Eurozone and especially French markets are likely to take a sigh of relief after Macon managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the French election and Frexit risks subside. Macron will have to wait until the second round on May 7 where he is set to beat Le Pen by a wide margin, before he officially becomes President, but markets are likely to celebrate his victory already today.

United States: U.S. markets will quickly turn to domestic politics as President Trump plans an announcement Wednesday on his tax code overhaul. However, the White House said late Friday that it would be more of a broad outline, and hence not heavy on details. The economic calendar will generally take a back seat this week. The Advance Q1 GDP report (Friday) should be one of the more interesting releases. Growth is expected to slow to a 1.3% pace, from Q4’s 2.1% pace, and continuing the trend over the last several years of measurable erosion in Q1. More timely data includes the April Dallas Fed index (Monday), the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday), the KC Fed survey (Thursday), and the Chicago PMI (Friday). March new home sales (Tuesday) are forecast falling 1.2% to 585k. Also on Tuesday are the February Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes, with pending home sales due Thursday. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should slip to a still strong 124.0 in April after the surprise surge to 125.6 in March. The final April print on consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected to inch up to 98.5. March durable goods orders (Thursday) are expected to be unchanged. Finally, Q1 ECI (Friday) is forecast holding at a 0.5% pace.

Canada: Canada awaits the first look at February GDP (Friday), expected to reveal a flat (0.0%) reading after the 0.6% surge in January. But before that, some additional ingredients for the GDP projection will be released, with wholesale shipment figures (Monday) and retails sales (Wednesday). Wholesale shipments are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in February after the 3.3% surge in January. Retail sales are projected to improve 0.1% after the 2.2% jump in January. The industrial product price index (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in March after the 0.1% gain in February. Average weekly earnings for February (Thursday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer for April (Thursday) round out the calendar.

Europe: Today,Even as the markets will be busy digesting the outcome of the first round of the French Presidential election from Sunday, traders will also have a bumper crop of data to analyze, along with the outcome of the ECB meeting. The outcome of the ECB meeting (Thursday) will also hinge to some extent on the French election result. Growth is picking up and this week’s data round is likely to add further to signs that the recovery is not just strengthening, but broadening, and that the slowing in the March HICP to 1.5% y/y from 2.0% was due to special factors. The very full data calendar has first Q1 GDP readings from France and Spain, as well as more April confidence surveys in the form of the German Ifo and the EMU ESI. There also will be a full round of preliminary April inflation numbers. The French HICP (Friday) is expected to bounce back to 1.7% y/y in April from 1.4%, while the Italian reading (Friday) is seen at 1.7% y/y from 1.4%. Spain’s price figure (Thursday) should rise to a 2.4% y/y clip from 2.1%. These should boost the overall April Eurozone CPI (Friday) to 1.8% y/y, up from 1.5% in s month. Even core inflation will be impacted by the Easter effect. Also on the week’s slate are German March retail sales, import price inflation, and GfK consumer confidence, along with French consumer spending data. The ECB meanwhile publishes the latest bank lending survey on Tuesday.

UK: Sterling rallied over 2% last week after British PM May called a snap election, which will take place on June 8 and is widely expected to see her Tory Party greatly increase its majority. Market focus will be on incoming polls, and while the main Labor Party opposition is in disarray, there is a risk that the SNP might win the vote strongly at the election, which would increase the odds for Scottish independence. After a quiet week previously, the UK data schedule picks up, highlighted by the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate (Friday) where we expect growth to slow to 0.4% q/q from 0.7%. Other data include the April CBI surveys on industrial trends (Monday) and the distributive sector (Thursday), both of which we expect to show moderation from respective April readings. Overall, the reports are expected to fit an emerging picture of stagnating economic growth, which the ONS stats office, in explaining unexpected weakness in official March retail sales data on Friday, blamed mostly on rising prices and declining real income.

Japan: Japan’s BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). The Bank is widely expected to keep its very accommodative stance in place with its -0.100% policy rate, while maintaining its control over the yield curve via QE and the asset purchase program. Indeed, BoJ Governor Kuroda confirmed last week that easy policy and steady asset purchases would continue to some time. The data calendar kicks off with March services PPI (Tuesday). That’s followed by the February all-industry index (Wednesday). The balance of releases are out on Friday, beginning with March National CPI, March unemployment, preliminary March industrial production, March personal income is due, along with March PCE, March overall retail sales, March housing starts and March construction orders are also on tap.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features a double dose of inflation data: Q1 CPI is scheduled for release on Wednesday and Q1 PPI is due out Friday. CPI is expected to expand 0.6% in Q1q/q after the 0.5% gain in Q4, leaving an annual growth rate of 2.2% in Q1 after the 1.5% y/y pace in Q4. The PPI is projected to expand 0.8% in Q1 following the 0.5% rise in Q4. Trade prices for Q1 are due on Thursday, while March private sector credit will be released on Friday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s slate has the March trade report, expected to show a NZ$200 mln surplus after the NZ$18 mln deficit in February. Building permits for March are also due Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
********


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.