Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 20th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan outperforming and the Nikkei up more than 1%, after the S&P 500 rose to a fresh record high and Fed’s Dudley said that U.S. expansion has “a long way to go”. Hang Seng and CSI were little changed in cautious trade ahead of the MSCI decision on the inclusion of Chinese shares in the index. The ASX meanwhile was weighed down by property shares. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, suggesting that yesterday’s rally will be extended today. The DAX is starting to eye the 12900 marks again and the FTSE 100 is firmly above 7500. With stock markets eying new highs core yields are likely to continue to nudge higher, while? Eurozone peripheral bond markets should continue to benefit from the improvement in sentiment. Yesterday’s first official meeting of Brexit negotiators brought a conciliatory tone, but little detail apart from a time table and the confirmation that there won’t be talks on a post-Brexit trade deal alongside the divorce agreements. The calendar today remains quiet, with only Eurozone current account and BoP data.

EU and U.K. agree timetable for Brexit talks, with initial negotiating groups tackling first Citizens’ rights, financial settlement and finally other separation issues. An additional dialogue on Ireland/Northern Ireland has been launched, but there was no mention of a post-Brexit trade deal which the U.K. initially wanted to negotiate alongside the divorce terms. Nothing further really happened yesterday at the first talks between chief negotiators Barnier and Davis and the next round of talks will start on July 17, with further rounds scheduled for the weeks starting August 28, September 18 and October 9. There reportedly wasn’t an offer from the U.K. yet on the rights for the EU citizens in the U.K.

Canada U.S. lumber dispute simmers, underpinning export uncertainty: a Bloomberg article from yesterday summarizes the viewpoints of the two sides in the dispute, with the U.S. upbeat for a quick resolution while Canada is cautious. The lumber dispute is among a variety of trade issues between the two nations, but is the most prominent and dates back to the Obama administration. Other industries remain at risk of increased tariffs, with Globeandmail.com reporting that the U.S. could add steel pipe makers to its target list of Canadian industries. The ongoing jockeying for tariff protections by various U.S. industries is a timely reminder of one of the key uncertainties facing Canada’s growth outlook. Wilkins, in her speech last week that shook up the BoC policy outlook, acknowledged the political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. That uncertainty shows few signs of diminishing, which we suspect will help keep the current monetary policy rate intact for a while longer.

Germany: The Producer Price inflation falls back to 2.8% y/y in April from 3.4% y/y in the previous month. This is a tad lower than anticipated, with the decline in oil prices from the highs earlier in the year one of the factors bringing both producer and import price inflation down again. The ECB has already cut back its inflation projections due to a revised oil price forecast. so the data doesn’t change the ECB outlook.

Main Macro Events Today

CAD Wholesale trade – Canada’s calendar has wholesale trade, with shipment values expected to expand 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.9% bounce in March.
US Current Account – The Q1 current account deficit is expected to widen to -$124 bln. As a percentage of nominal GDP, the gap is expected to widen to -2.6% from -2.4%.
SNB Jordan Speech – SNB Governing Board Chairman Thomas Jordan will be at the opening of Swiss International Finance Forum, in Bern, in which it will also be involved in a panel titled “Moving away from the expansive monetary policy: what are the effects on financial markets and the real economy?”.
Fedspeak – VC Fischer and non-voter Rosengren will be at the podium at a conference on macro-prudential policy at the Riksbank. Also, the moderate hawkish voter Kaplan discusses monetary policy and the economy at a Commonwealth Club event. Governor Powell testifies on fostering economic growth before the Senate Banking Committee.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, after losses on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. MSCI finally decided to include 222 large Chinese companies in its 2018 Emerging Markets Index, and the CSI is outperforming with a 0.28% gain, while the Hang Seng is down -0.38% and the Nikkei -0.32%, with the latter weighed down by a stronger Yen. The ASX underperformed and lost more than 1% as oil prices remain under pressure. The DAX rallied to new record highs yesterday, before profit taking and a broad mover lower in global equity markets as commodity supply concerns amid rising oil production in Libya and Nigeria cast fresh doubt on the efficacy of the OPEC oil agreement while a 26% drop in Chinese steel exports added to concerns about the global growth outlook. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and the fresh bout of risk aversion will keep a lid on bond yields. For the Eurozone, the good news though is that peripheral yield spreads over the German benchmark didn’t blow out yesterday. Today’s data calendar remains quiet, with only U.K. public finance data and a German 30-year Bund sale.

London clearing remains bone of contention. After the EU proposal that called for greater EU oversight of clearing houses based in foreign jurisdictions and included the option of enforced relocation, BoE’s Carney yesterday suggested improved cross-border oversight of clearinghouses that should be based on “deep cooperation” between jurisdictions, adding that a clearing deal would help to keep the financial system resilient. ECB’s Coeure meanwhile stressed that the EU’s clearing regime was “never designed to cope” with major clearing houses operating outside of the EU, adding that moving clearing to within the EU’s jurisdiction would be justified if they pose a major risk to stability, as so far, the regime provides “EU authorities with very limited tools for obtaining information and taking action in the event of a crisis”. The ECB has long tried to get London clearing under its own control and while London fought back with backing from a European court, the issue is back on top of the agenda as Brexit draws nearer.

Fedspeak: Yesterday Fed’s Rosengren said low rates pose financial stability issues, in his comments at the Riksbank macroprudential conference. The Boston Fed president (not a voter this year) turned decidedly hawkish about a year ago and has maintained that outlook ever since. He believes low rates put intermediaries and economies at risk, make fighting future recessions more difficult, and make it more likely central banks will have to resort to non-traditional policies. Additionally, Fed Evans was speaking yesterday as well. Chicago Fed dove Evans said inflation needs to rise and the target should not been seen as a cap but a symmetric target, though he’s voted for rate hikes given improvement in the economy. He’s still ambivalent about the timing of the next hike, which could take place later in the year, while the global environment appears to be holding back inflation, which could allow for a shallower path of rate increases. Otherwise the economy bounced back after the election, with “quite good” fundamentals, which give inflation a chance to get back to 2%. He sees 3% growth as achievable in the short-term, but sustaining it given labor and productivity constraints is another thing, while the U.S. is fast approaching its natural rate of unemployment.

Canada: growth maintains momentum but uncertainties lurk, suggesting that while the time frame for rate hikes has been moved ahead, the Bank can maintain the current setting through mid-year at least. Of course, the upbeat (“hawkish”) view of the economy last week moved ahead expectations for lift-off, and even put the announcement next month in play. And the economic data since Wilkins/Poloz have supported the Bank’s view that the run of encouraging broad-based growth will prove sustainable. But other events have highlighted the uncertainties around Canada’s outlook. Most prominently, the plunge in WTI crude oil to a seven month low and the evolution of U.S. trade policy. The key line from Wilkins was that they are “assessing whether all of the considerable monetary stimulus presently in place is still required.” An assessment of the mix of firm economic data but weak oil/commodity and uncertain U.S. trade policy will likely keep them grounded until later this year, if not January of next year. There will be another round of BoC-speak next week (Poloz panel, Patterson speech), which will be looked to for fresh guidance on the policy outlook.

Main Macro Events Today

US Existing Home Sales – May existing home sales data is out today and should post a 0.7% increase to a 5.610 mln pace for the month after dropping 2.3% to a 5.570 mln pace in April. The NAHB did tick higher in May with a rise to 69 from 68 in April but housing starts disappointed with a decline in the headline pace to 1.092 mln from 1.156 mln in April.

UK Borrowing data – Monthly government borrowing data are due (today), for which a deduction to £7.3B is expected from £9.6 seen last month.

Speeches – BoE chief Economist Andy Haldane is due to give a speech today in Yorkshire.

RBNZ Meeting – New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting today. No change to the current 1.75% rate setting is expected. It’s been at this level since the predicted easing on November 10.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets stabilized in China’s CSI outperformed again helped by the inclusion of 222 mainland equities in the MSSCI index. The ASX, which tanked yesterday with oil also bounced back. The front end WTI future is little changed on the day at USD 42.53, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the policy rate unchanged, as expected. Bund and Gilt yields already moved higher yesterday, led by a jump in the 10-year Gilt above the 1% mark after hawkish comments from BoE’s Haldane, which sees a case for raising rates soon. Bunds outperformed, but the 10-year yield also nudged higher, while Eurozone spreads were mixed at the close with Portugal underperforming. Equity markets and oil prices remain in focus although the calendar is starting to pick up with French business confidence indicators as well as the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey and the ECB’s latest economic report. EU leaders will also start to gather for a 2-day Brexit summit, after chief negotiators from both sides met for the first time officially last Monday. The Eurozone also has preliminary consumer confidence data in the afternoon.

US Reports: A 1.1% U.S. May existing home sales bounce to a 5.62 mln rate trimmed the April drop to 5.56 mln from a 5.70 mln cycle-high in March to almost exactly track estimates, as sales gains moderate in Q2 after weather boosts in the prior two quarters. U.S. existing home sales came in on the perky side, but had little impact on forex markets. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% rise in 2017, following a 3.9% increase in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 “taper-tantrum” drop. Additionally, U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.6% in data released yesterday, in addition to a 1.0% drop in the purchase index and a 2.1% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended June 16. Yet the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged at a low 4.13% last week after readily absorbing the Fed’s rate hike, projections and balance sheet reduction schedule announcements.

RBNZ: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Wheeler again saying, “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” And a dovish bias was retained, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” This was the same as in May. In March he said “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly.” In other words, it looks like they won’t hesitate to add accommodation if downside risks to the economy manifest. The onus remains on the inflation and growth data, with additional undershoots setting the stage for further easing.

UK: The new UK government’s legislative goals have been announced in the Queen’s speech. Eight of the 24 outlined are Brexit related, which include bills to convert EU rules into UK law, and others concerning such issues as trade, immigration, agriculture and sanctions. A number of key manifesto pledges have been axed or delayed as a consequence of the Conservative Party having lost its majority at the elections earlier in the month. Chancellor Hammond on Monday said that the economy would be the priority in Brexit negotiations, which appears to be position shift away from prioritizing immigration. This could potentially be supportive of the pound, though issues about the fragility of the minority government (which is reportedly struggling in negotiations with Northern Ireland’s DUP) are likely to be the overriding concern for markets. BoE Chief Economist Haldane gave a speech as well yesterday in which he said he is ready to vote for a rate hike — notable as he voted to keep policy settings unchanged last week. His vote would bring the hawks in favour of hiking the repo rate by 25bp to four — which is half of the members on the Monetary Policy Committee.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of June 17 should reveal a slight increase to 240k from 237k in the week prior and 245k in the week before that. Claims have been holding at very tight levels lately and the June average expected to be 236k, down from 241k in May and 243k in April.

Canadian Retail Sales – Retail sales are seen growing 0.9% m/m in April, while the ex-autos sales aggregate gains 0.7%. Higher gasoline prices should support retail sales, but weaker vehicle sales will weigh.

Fedspeak – Governor Powell testifies on fostering economic growth before the Senate Banking Committee.

MPC Forbes Speech – BOE MPC voting member Kristin Forbes is due to give a speech today at the London Business School.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed in tepid markets, as oil prices stalling below USD 43 per barrel. Fed speakers didn’t challenge the path to further rate hikes and markets are taking a wait and see stance. Mainland Chinese shares are fluctuating after outperforming yesterday, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, while U.S. futures are slightly higher. A very cautious end to a volatile week then, which should leave core bonds underpinned and yields remaining low. BoE’s Forbes may have added more force to her calls for a rate hike in a speech late yesterday saying she sees “some urgency” to tighten monetary policy, but this was her last speech as she is leaving the MPC. The EU summit with May on Brexit talks, saw the British PM making an offer for the rights of EU citizens, but the devil here lies as usual in the details and the future of citizens on both sides is far from secured. The issues were not discussed at the summit and it will be up to the negotiating team to hammer out a final deal. Today’s calendar brings preliminary June PMI readings, which we expect to move sideways at high levels. France has final Q1 GDP and Italy releases orders data for April.

US Reports: 3k U.S. initial claims uptick to 241k in the BLS survey week trimmed the prior 7k drop to 238k (was 237k) from 245k at the start of June and 255k in the final week of May. Claims have undershot the 2016 average of 263k in every week of 2017, and continue to oscillate around tight levels above the 44-year low of 227k in the President’s Day week. Claims are averaging 240k in June, versus a similarly tight 241k May average, and higher prior averages of 243k in April, 251k in March, and 241k in February. Today’s 241k BLS survey week reading was above May’s 233k figure but below prior survey-week readings of 243k in April, 261k in March, and 247k in February. U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.7% in April to 248.2, after a 0.7% March gain to 246.6. That’s up 6.8% y/y. Seven of the 9 regions surveyed posted gains.

UK: Brexit Battle Finally Gets Underway One year after the Brexit referendum official talks finally got underway. There still isn’t any clarity on how the future relationship between the U.K. and the rest of the EU will look once the U.K. exits the block. But, a year on, both sides are in a very different situation, with the EU going into the discussions strengthened, while the U.K. government is looking increasingly fragile. Central banks on both sides cautiously look on as the direction and outcome of the talks will have major implications for rates going forward.UK hints at transition period for Brexit. Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond yesterday suggested the prospect of a four-year transitional period, adding to signs that he is pushing for a softer Brexit stance. Hammond said in a radio interview that in his view a three to four-year transitional period might be necessary, after the U.K. officially exits the EU in 2019.

Canada: Canada’s retail sales yesterday improved 0.8% m/m in April after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in March (was +0.7%), leaving a nearly as projected gain. But the ex-autos sales aggregate surged 1.5% m/m in April following a revised 0.1% dip in March (was -0.2%), which was well in excess of projections. Higher prices played a large role in lifting the value of total and ex-autos retail sales. Total retail sales volumes were up a modest 0.3% m/m in April after the 1.1% jump in March. While the ex-autos sale aggregate came in on the firm side of projections, the gain in total sales alongside the more modest rise in sales volumes was roughly as expected.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone & German PMI – A slight dip in the Eurozone manufacturing index is anticipated to 56.8 from 57.0, with a dip in the services reading to 56.2 from 56.3. Those would suggest ongoing robust activity but at a slightly slower growth pace. This scenario wouldn’t challenge the ECB’s main assumption of a recovery that is strengthening and broadening, and hence would have limited market impact. The German manufacturing index is anticipated to 59 from 59.5, with the services reading to 55.5 from 55.4.

CAD CPI – CPI is expected to edge up 0.1% m/m in May after the 0.4% m/m gain in April. Gasoline prices dropped in in May, which drives projection for a slowing in the pace of month comparable CPI growth. The CPI is seen moderating to a 1.4% y/y pace in May from the 1.6% y/y growth rate in April.

US PMI & New Home Sales – A slight increase in the US manufacturing index is anticipated to 53.0 from 52.7, with the services reading to 53.7 from 53.6. The New Home Sales number is also out today and an increase of 16.8% is anticipated from the -11.4% seen on April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with Japan outperforming as a weaker Yen underpinned exporters. Yesterday’s weakness in U.S. durable goods orders saw Treasury yields declining and risk appetite waning as investors starting to fret again about the health of the world economy. Oil prices are holding above USD 43 per barrel, but Hang Seng, CSI 300 and ASX are all slightly in the red as are U.K. and U.S. stock futures. This should keep Bund and Gilt futures underpinned and core yields down, especially as Draghi once again defended the ECB’s stimulus measures. Today’s data calendar has Italian confidence data as well as the U.K. CBI Retailing Survey. The ECB is hosting its annual forum in Portugal.

FX Update: The dollar majors remained in fairly narrow ranges, though there has been some movement. AUDUSD logged a one-week high of 0.7609, while USDJPY logged a five-week high at 112.07 before turning lower, to around 111.70. The retreat in USDJPY came after the U.S. said that it had detected preparations by the Syrian regime for another chemical attack, with the White House warning that Damascus would pay a “heavy price” in the event it launched another chemical attack. The oil price rebound flagged, and the global stock market rally sputtered in Asia, a backdrop conducive for yen buying. Elsewhere, EURUSD has continued to gravitate toward the 1.1200 level, with the market lacking directional ambition, despite lower U.S. yields following weaker headline durables data yesterday, and a softening in the price indicators in the Dallas Fed index. Cable has been settled in the lower 1.27s, below yesterday’s eight-day high at 1.2759. USDCAD has settled near 1.3250, above yesterday’s 1.3212 low.

US Reports: The U.S. durables report revealed a 1.1% May headline orders drop with a 3.4% transportation orders decline and a 0.1% ex-transportation rise that tracked our estimates. We saw a 10.2% May defense orders plunge, mixed equipment data, a lean 0.2% inventory gain and a firm 0.8% durable shipments rise that was in line with our 2.4% Q2 GDP estimate, after an assumed Q1 trimming to 0.9% from 1.2%. U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.26 in May after jumping to 0.57 in April (that was the highest point since 0.59 from March 2014; the index was as low as -0.84 in July 2013). Additionally, yesterday U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index slipped to 15.0 in June after edging up to 17.2 in May from 16.8 in April. The rise to 24.5 in February put the level at its highest since early 2006. It was generally in negative territory from January 2015 through September 2016. Despite the headline declines, it’s still a pretty solid report.

Draghi raises concerns over Greek debt sustainability. The central bank head said in a letter to an EU lawmaker that “until sufficient detail has been provided on the debt measures, serious concerns persist regarding the sustainability of Greece’s public debt”. Currently ECB staff is not “in a position to complete a fully-fledged debt-sustainability analysis of Greece’s public debt”. Greece has been pushing for the ECB to include Greek debt in QE purchases, but Draghi’s comments highlight again that that is still unlikely in the near future.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB’s Draghi – ECB’s President Draghi speaks today at the ECB forum in Central Bank in Portugal at 08:00 GMT.

BOE – Financial stability Report is out today for the 1st time this year from BOE. Meanwhile Gov Carney is due to speak today about Stability Report in London at 10:00 GMT

U.S. Consumer Confidence – June consumer confidence data should reveal a dip in the headline to 116.0 from 117.9 in May and 119.4 in April. Confidence measures are still hovering near post-recession highs but there is some downside risk to the release as we saw a decline in the first Michigan headline to 94.5 from 97.1 last month.

AUS Gov. G. Debelle – Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks at the Global FX Code of Conduct Launch (via video link). The Reserve Bank of Australia next meets on July 4th. We expect no change to the current 1.50% rate setting.

Fedspeak – Fedspeak will resume with Chair Yellen atop the roster this week, as she will take part in a conversation with Lord Nicholas Stern, president of the British Academy on “Global Economic Issues” today from 13 ET. SF Fed’s Williams speaks on “The Global Growth Slump” from Australia at 4:05 ET, followed by Philly Fed’s Harker on the economic outlook and trade from 11:15 ET and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari takes town hall Q&A from 17:30 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, with Australia’s ASX a notable exception. Elsewhere markets followed Wall Street lower, after the delay to a U.S. healthcare reform vote and with Draghi’s comments yesterday serving as a reminder that central bank support has peaked and that rates will trend higher. Losses in Nikkei and Hang Seng seemed more muted though and the ASX actually managed to move higher, as oil prices hold above USD 44 per barrel. Equally, the uptick in long yields looked less severe in Asia and with the first round of preliminary June inflation data out of the Eurozone today likely to show a drop in the headline rate, even Eurozone markets, which were knocked off balance by Draghi yesterday, should start to settle. Lower inflation numbers over the next days and likely comments from officials trying to play down the impact of Draghi’s remarkets should see bonds settling again. The calendar has EMU M3, preliminary Italian HICP, US Pending Home Sales and US Crude Oil Inventories.

U.S. reports: revealed June gains for both consumer and business confidence, as the various “soft” measures continue to overshoot “hard” data forecasts despite modest pull-backs from Q1 highs. For consumer confidence, we saw a June bounce to 118.9 from 117.6 (was 117.9) in May, leaving a fourth consecutive reading above what was once the 16-year high of 116.1 in February, versus the new 16-year high of 124.9 in March. The Richmond Fed index bounced to 7.0 in June from 1.0 in May, versus a 7-year high of 22.0 in March, while the ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed bounced to 54.0 from 51.7 in May, versus a 7-year high of 59.2 in March. Yesterday’s Dallas Fed index bucked the trend thanks to recent oil price declines, with a June drop to 15.0 from 17.2 in May, while the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed dropped to 53.0 from a 2-year high of 55.4 in May.

Fed Chair Yellen: reiterated the Fed’s commitment to price stability. Policymakers want to avoid making too-low of an inflation rate to become ingrained. She noted that household inflation expectations have slipped some, and added that many on the Committee do believe that a low jobless rate will boost inflation. She did say though that aid there are reasons to believe rates will remain low for some time. Layoffs at brick-and-mortar stores will continue. Asset values are somewhat rich by traditional metrics. She stressed, however, that the FOMC is not targeting asset prices. The markets have well anticipated a gradual rate hike path, especially as the Fed has made it clear rates will rise only gradually. She cautioned to expect uncertainty over how Brexit will unfold. She declined to comment on her relationship with President Trump, but said there is a long tradition of the Fed working with administrations and added that the administration has respect for the Fed’s independence. On the other hand, Fed’s Harker still backs another rate hike this year, he said in comments from a conference London. He believes growth should average about 2.3% this year, but he’s pushed back his view of inflation hitting the 2% target into the start of 2018 versus the end of 2017.

German May import price inflation fell back to 4.1% y/y from 6.1% y/y in the previous month, with prices down -1.0% m/m. A stronger than expected dip, which, however, is largely due to base effects from energy prices and the currency. At 4.1% y/y import price inflation remains at high levels, but with headline rates also coming off highs and June figures likely to fall back further below the 2% limit, the data will back the ECB’s cautious approach to tightening steps, although that the ECB is heading for tapering next year is pretty clear.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB’s Forum – ECB’s President Draghi speaks today at the ECB forum in Central Bank in Portugal at 13:30 GMT along with BOC Gov. Poloz, BoE Gov. Carney and BoJ Gov Koruda.

U.S. Pending Home Sales & Oil Inventories – Pending home sales from the NAR are expected to rise 0.7% in May to 110.6 and EIA inventories are due after sparking recent bouts of crude oil selling.

JPY Retail Trade – Retail sales are projected at 2.6% y/y in May from 3.2% y/y in April. The projection is for a 0.5% y/y dip in May large retailer sales following the 1.1% rate of increase in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets stabilized yesterday, after “ECB sources” played down Draghi’s comments on possible policy changes and after Eurozone peripherals bounced back during the PM session, Wall Street also closed higher, followed by broad gains on Asian markets overnight. U.K. stock futures are also up, after the FTSE 100 underperformed yesterday on hawkish Carney comments. That doesn’t seem to have curtailed the wider bounce back in risk appetite. Eurozone yields also came off the highs seen in the wake of Draghi’s original comments and Bund futures moved sideways during after hour trade. Gilts moved higher again yesterday and even if there are periods of stabilization, yields are likely to continue to trend higher as global central banks cautiously eye exit steps. Today’s will give both doves and hawks something to argue with as EMU ESI confidence is seen rising again, while German June HICP inflation is expected to fall back further below the 2% mark. The U.K. has BoE lending data.

US reports: U.S. pending home sales fell 0.8% to 108.5 in May following the 1.7% decline in April to 109. This is a third straight monthly decline and the index has fallen in four of the five months of 2017 to date. The National Association of Realtors blames much of the weakness in sale to a lack of inventory. U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed to -$65.9 in May, surprising forecasts for little change, after widening to -$67.1 bln in April. May exports increased 0.4% to $127.1 bln after dropping 0.9% to $126.6 bln in April. Imports dipped 0.4% to $193.0 bln following the prior 1.0% increase to $193.8 bln. The data suggest upside risk to GDP forecasts. Lastly, U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 6.2% in data released earlier, along with a 4.1% drop in the purchase index and a 8.6% plunge in the refinancing index for the week ended June 23. Yet the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 4.13%. That could be a risky omen considering that home prices remain elevated and inventories low, even as the Fed continues to push on a string in terms of interest rates.

ECB officials suggest markets misjudged Draghi comments. According to a Bloomberg reports citing unnamed ECB policy makers Draghi’s speech yesterday was intended to strike a balance between recognizing economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed. So after Draghi’s reference to possible policy changes served as a reminder that tapering announcements were merely postponed, not cancelled at the last meeting, we are now likely to get more comments from officials referencing Dragh’s insistence that any change will be prudent and gradual and that in times of strengthening growth, this could still mean that the degree of stimulus will remain unchanged. Draghi clearly remains eager to dampen the impact of tapering talk, despite yesterday’s comments

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone ESI – ESI Economic Confidence is seen rising slightly to 109.5 from 109.2, after better than anticipated preliminary consumer confidence data and as PMI readings suggested improving manufacturing confidence and a soberer assessment in the services sector.

German HCPI – Italian HICP readings suggest downside risks to the remaining June inflation numbers, so German HICP expected to come with a downside bias of 1.3% y/y. Still, the ECB has already acknowledged the fact that oil prices are lower and adjusted its inflation projections accordingly.

U.S. GDP, Jobless Claims – US Q1 GDP may stay unchanged on the third revision at 1.2%. Similarly, initial jobless claims expected to slightly drop to 240K from 241K.

JPY CPI, Jobless Rate, Prel. Industrial Production – CPI is expected to reveal ongoing sluggishness in Japan’s inflation backdrop, consistent with no change in BoJ accommodation for quite some time yet. May consumer prices are seen improving to a 0.5% y/y rate of increase from 0.4% in April. May unemployment is anticipated at a 2.8%, identical to April. PCE is expected to post a 0.8% y/y decline in May after the 1.4% April drop. Industrial production is pegged to reverse 3.2% m/m in the preliminary report for May after the 4.0% final gain for April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Markets are back in the grip of risk aversion and Asian stock markets headed south after losses on Wall Street and Europe yesterday. Eurozone stocks in particular sold off Thursday after the unexpected rise in German HICP rekindled ECB tapering concerns. Quarter end positioning that saw tech shares leading declines added to pressure on stock markets, while central bank concerns means bond futures are falling in tandem with stocks. Eurozone spreads blew out yesterday again and with global central banks eying exit steps yields are likely to continue to trend higher going ahead. Today’s busy calendar has June inflation data for France and the Eurozone, French consumer spending, the Swiss KOF leading indicator as well as German labour market data and the final reading of U.K. Q1 GDP.

US reports: revealed an upside Q1 GDP surprise led by big upward consumption and net export revisions and a downward set of deflator adjustments that also lifted Q1 “real” growth. We also saw surprising Q1 inventory weakness that boosts prospects for GDP growth in Q2 and Q3, though we will keep these estimates at 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. We saw a disappointing 2k uptick in initial claims to 244k to leave a relatively elevated start to the annual vehicle sector retooling period, which we still think will depress initial claims into mid-July, and the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to 48.6 from 49.4.

Japan’s core CPI improved to an 0.4% y/y pace in May from the 0.3% growth rate in April. The modest pick-up was roughly as expected. National CPI grew at a 0.4% y/y clip in May, matching the 0.4% rate in April. But Tokyo core CPI (ex-fresh food, but energy is included in Japan “core”) was flat (0.0%) in June after the 0.1% gain in May. Tokyo CPI was also flat in June on the heels of the 0.2% y/y gain in May. The lack of growth in both measures of Tokyo CPI during June suggests a similar sputtering of national CPI growth in June, which could further distance the BoJ from the hawkishness that has gripped the BoC, Fed and ECB recently. The unemployment rate rose to 3.1% in May from 2.8% in April. Household spending dipped 0.1% y/y in May following the 1.4% drop in April. Industrial production tumbled 3.3% m/m in May (preliminary) after a 4.0% rise in April. USD-JPY saw minimal movement on the reports — the pair ticked above 112.0 from just below, reversed at 112.11 to slip back to 112.0 currently. The Nikkei 225 is 1.1% lower, taking its cue from the losses on Wall Street during New York’s session Thursday.

German May retail sales came in a tad better than anticipated, with sales rebounding 0.5% m/m, after falling -0.2% m/m in April. The three months trend rate rose to 1.1% from 1.0% in the three months to April. The annual rate still fell back to 1.2% y/y from 1.4% y/y. Nevertheless, a robust number, although official retail sales are a volatile indicator and only cover a part of consumption. Consumer confidence indicators meanwhile have been buoyant, suggesting ongoing support from private consumption to domestic demand and overall growth.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Final GDP & Current Account – The final release of Q1 GDP, expect to come in unrevised at 0.2% q/q and 2.0% y/y (medians same). The Current Account for Q1 expected at £-17.250 B from £-12.088B.

EU CPI – A slight deceleration expected in the Eurozone headline rate to 1.2% y/y from 1.4%. The ECB already scaled down its inflation projections thanks to lower oil prices and even if there is an upside surprise, as with the German numbers yesterday, it won’t change the ECB policy path, as the QE schedule is already laid out for the rest of the year and tapering is widely expected to start in January 2018.

CAD GDP – GDP expected to improve 0.2% m/m in April after the 0.5% run-up in March. Projection is a notable slowing from the 3.7% growth rate in Q1, it would equate to still solid momentum in Canada’s economy. An as-expected report will underpin the Bank’s “encouraging” narrative on the economy, supportive of the BoC’s aggressively hawkish turn this month.

US PCE, Chicago PMI & UoM Sentiment (Revised) – Personal income is set to rise 0.3% in May from 0.4%, while PCE spending rises 0.1% from 0.4%. Also out are Chicago PMI, which may dip to 58.0 in June from 59.4, with Michigan sentiment (final) June read seen steady at 94.5.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2017.

FX News Today

The surprisingly hawkish tone from core central banks recently has weighed sharply on bonds and stocks, with losses exacerbated Friday amid duration and portfolio shifts into quarter-end. Yet, the combination of weaker than expected U.S. data, especially on the inflation front, and the FOMC’s hints that it could slow rate hikes when it begins its balance sheet unwind, has pushed out tightening expectations beyond the November 1 policy decision. Given all the holiday disruptions this week, trading may be a bit disjointed. But, the FOMC minutes midweek could provide a window into Fed thinking and the week could end with a bang as the June payrolls release is on tap Friday.

United States: No one is projecting any rate action in the U.S. at this month’s FOMC meeting (25, 26), according to our Survey Median. But upcoming data may help refine the outlook with respect to the trajectory of monetary policy through the rest of the year. The June employment report will take center stage (Friday) for the holiday-abbreviated week, as the first major jobs reading since the last Fed hike, though the Fed already feels comfortable with its job mandate for the most part. The economic calendar will be split by the July 4th holiday (Tuesday), but kicks off (Monday) with the ISM manufacturing index seen nudging up to 55.0 in June from 54.9 in May, while construction spending may rebound 0.3% in May from -1.4% after April showers. Data resumes (Wednesday) with the MBA mortgage market report and factory goods orders forecast to sink 0.8% in May from -0.2% in April. June ADP employment survey (Thursday) should post a 190k gain for the month, though below the solid May figure of 253k. The May trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly to -$46.3 bln from -$47.6 bln, initial jobless claims may dip 13k to 231k for the July 1 week and ISM Non-Manufacturing index may ease to 56.5 in June vs 56.9 in May.

Canada: In Canada markets are closed on Monday for the Canada Day holiday (happy 150th birthday). Two important economic reports are out this week: May trade and June employment. The trade deficit (Thursday) is expected to narrow to -C$0.1 bln in May from -C$0.4 bln in April. Exports are seen improving 1.0% m/m in May after the 1.8% gain in April, but risk is skewed to the downside on our exports estimate given the erosion in oil prices in May relative to April. Employment (Friday) is projected to grow 20.0k in June after the 54.5k surge in May, as Canada’s labour market continues to tighten. Unemployment is expected at 6.6% in June, matching the 6.6% in May. Yet another tame reading for earning growth is anticipated, as average hourly wage growth dips to a 1.2% y/y pace in June from 1.3% in May. Building permit values (Thursday) are expected to slip 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.2% dip in April. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is seen rising to 55.0 in June from 53.8 on a seasonally adjusted basis, which would leave the index above 50.0 for the thirteenth consecutive month. The June Markit manufacturing survey is due Tuesday. After a flurry of game-changing appearances over the past two weeks, the BoC is silent during the first week of July.

Europe: The Eurozone goes into the second half of the year looking much stronger than expected. This week’s data releases are unlikely to change this assessment substantially. Final Eurozone PMI readings for June are expected to confirm preliminary numbers – i.e. a manufacturing PMI (Monday) of 57.3 and services reading (Wednesday) of 54.7, suggesting robust expansion across both sectors. Markit also reported ongoing strong job creation, which is expected to be reflected in another dip in the Eurozone unemployment rate (Monday) to 9.2% from 9.3%. Germany has manufacturing orders data for May (Tuesday), where a rebound of 2.0% m/m from the -2.1% m/m is anticipated, with the latter likely to have impacted also by the later timing of Easter, which fell into April this year. May industrial production (Friday), meanwhile, is seen rising 0.3% m/m, after 0.8% m/m in April. The calendar also has Eurozone retail sales and producer price inflation. Supply comes from Germany, which sells 5-year Bobls on Wednesday and the ECB publishes its latest bank lending survey on Thursday.

UK: Sterling rallied by an average 2.5% versus the G3 currencies last week as BoE Governor Carney appeared to show himself as a potential fifth member on the eight-person Monetary Policy Committee that could vote for a rate hike next month, or soon thereafter. The calendar this week is highlighted by the June PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) has us expecting an ebb to a 56.4 reading after 56.7 in May, which would still indicate a decent pace of expansion in the sector, which has benefited since the pound plummeted following last year’s Brexit vote. The construction PMI (Tuesday) anticipated to come in at 55.0 after 56.0 in the previous month, and the services PMI (Wednesday) to soften to 53.6 after 53.8 in May. Production and trade numbers for May are also up this week (Friday), where industrial output seen to ticking up by 0.4% m/m and by 0.2% y/y.

Japan: In Japan, Monday brought the June Tankan report, where was the strongest Tankan survey since 2014. Today Asian stock markets are mixed, with CSI 300 and ASX in the red, while Nikkei and Hang Seng are posting slight gains. the Nikkei was underpinned by the strongest Tankan survey since 2014 and the weakening of the Yen against USD as Japan PM Abe’s LDP suffered a surprise defeat in the Tokyo assembly election. The June Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI cool to 52.4 from 53.1 last month, while June consumer confidence came at 43.3 from 43.6. June Markit PMIs are also due on Wednesday.

China: In China, the June Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI today rose to 3-mth high at 50.4 from 49.6. The June services PMI (Wednesday) is estimated at 52.0 from 52.8.

Australia: Australia has Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. Melbourne Institute inflation index and ANZ job ads are due Monday. Building approvals (Monday) are expected to rise 1.0% m/m in May after the 4.4% gain in April. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen 0.3% m/m firmer in May after the 1.0% bounce in April. The trade surplus (Thursday) is seen improving to A$2,000 mln in May from A$555 mln in April.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar does not have any top tier data this week. However, the calendar has June QV House Prices (Wednesday), ANZ job ads (Wednesday). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting is on August 10. No change is expected to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed with losses of 1.7% and 1.0% respectivelyas after falling below the support line of 25500. The Yen strengthened as North Korea test fired a missile, which weighed on Nikkei and Topix together with fresh pressure on tech giants, while the ASX rallied and is up more than 1.5% as the central bank left rates unchanged. U.K. as well as U.S. futures are also heading south after broad gains in Europe yesterday, which were led by Eurozone markets after a source story suggesting the ECB is not ready to lift the implicit easing bias on QE. Oil prices have halted their winning streak and are down on the day. Today’s data calendar is quiet, with only Spanish unemployment and EMU PPI, as well as the U.K. Construction PMI. ECB’s Praet and Nowotny speak and the Riksbank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged in its latest policy assessment.

FX Update: The Australian dollar dove following the RBA announcement, with Governor Lowe’s statement giving a mixed prognosis of the economy and, in particular, highlighting that an “appreciating exchange would complicate” the transition of the economy from the mining investment boom. AUDUSD fell over 0.6% in making a four-session low at 0.7604, and AUDJPY shed over 1% in making a low at 85.85, which is also a four-session nadir. The RBA left the cash policy rate unchanged at 1.5%, as had been widely anticipated. Elsewhere, USDJPY tipped back under 113.00, putting in some space from yesterday’s seven-week high at 113.47. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action, with AUDJPY having led the way. EURUSD declined for a fourth-straight session following ECB efforts to correct its tapering message. The pair logged a four-session low at 1.1336.

US reports: revealed a June ISM pop to a 3-year high of 57.8, with a jobs index rise to a sturdy 57.2 that leaves upside risk for our 185k June nonfarm payroll estimate on Friday. Yet, we also saw a weak round of May construction spending data after annual revisions that lifted historic levels but that left a weaker entry into Q2, hence the Q2 GDP forecast trimmed to 2.4% from 2.6% with likely flat Q2 growth for both residential and nonresidential construction. The revised data show an even more dramatic home improvement surge since Q1 of 2016 despite some flattening in these gains in Q2, alongside a significant slowing in nonresidential construction growth since last August after a strong prior climb. Available vehicle sales figures suggest a June repeat of the 16.6 mln May pace, versus 16.8 mln in April, and an 18.3 mln cycle-high pace in December. A flat June headline and ex-auto retail sales figures can be assumed, with hits to sales from an estimated 4% June drop in gasoline prices and restraint in sales of building materials from a winter-boost.

The UK June manufacturing PMI came in much weaker than expected, at 54.3 in the headline reading, down from 56.3 in May, which itself was revised lower from 56.7. The new export orders component ebbed to a five-month low of 52.6 from 53.2 in the prior month, which is disappointing given the health of international economies and the significantly more competitive level of sterling following the Brexit vote last year. The pound and UK yields dipped on the data. Sterling markets are now looking to the services PMI survey for June (Wednesday) to better gauge any potential slowing in the broader economy that the manufacturing report might have portended, with the data arriving with BoE MPC members becoming increasingly eager to hike the repo rate from its record low rate of 0.25%.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – The UK Construction PMI expected to come in at 55.0 after 56.0 in the previous month.

ECBspeak – Executive Board member Praet, who has been stalling attempts to change the guidance more decisively, is due to speak today, while on the opposite end of the spectrum, head of the Austrian central bank, ECB’s Nowotny is scheduled to discuss the future of the Euro in Vienna.

CAD Manuf. PMI – The markets reopened, but the U.S. is closed for the July 4th holiday. The June Markit manufacturing survey is due today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with investors assessing the impact of North Korea’s test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Telecommunication shares weighed on markets in Japan and Hong Kong. The Nikkei is up 0.06%, the Hang Seng managed to climb 0.55%, after yesterday’s harp loss and the ASX is down -0.36% as geopolitical concerns make a come back and markets await the reaction of U.S. markets, which were closed yesterday. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while FTSE 100 futures are slightly down, pointing to ongoing caution on equity markets, which should keep bond futures underpinned. ECB Executive Board member Praet urged caution and patience, which suggests the ECB remains reluctant to commit to policy changes just yet and thus add support especially to peripheral EMU bond markets. Today’s data calendar focuses on Services PMI readings out of the Eurozone and the U.K.. The Eurozone also has retail sales data for May.

FX Update: The dollar majors have been directionally challenged so far today, with narrow ranges prevailing. EURUSD has settled around 1.1350, modestly above the five-session low posted yesterday at 1.1336. USDJPY has been trading on either side of 113.00 over the last day, holding in a consolidation pattern after logging a seven-week high at 113.47 on Monday, itself the culmination of a three-week rally. Emerging Asian currencies have been steady, as has been the Canadian dollar, which has traded slightly softer today after rallying yesterday on fresh hawkish BoCspeak, and the Australian dollar, which took a tumble yesterday after the RBA signalled out exchange rate gains as been an impediment to the post-mining boom transition of the economy. A joint U.S. and South Korean missile test, in response to North Korea’s launching of its first an intercontinental ballistic missile yesterday, has upped the geopolitical ante in that part of the world, but to little forex market impact, while contributing to choppy trade on Asian equity bourses (although South Korea’s KOSPI still managed a gain of 0.4%). Today’s release of the FOMC minutes from the mid-June will be a big focus for markets as they should detail justification for the Fed’s unexpected resolve toward normalizing policy.

Eurozone producer price inflation fell back to 3.3% y/y in May from 4.3% y/y in the previous month. The deceleration was mainly due to base effects and not unexpected after national data, but it will help the arguments of the doves at the ECB, who remain cautious about moving too quickly towards tapering steps. Still, while the doves can point to the marked decline in the number, the hawks will stress that the headline rate remains quite high.

Division at the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, with member McCafferty having advocated a rate hike while Vlieghe argued that hiking too soon would be worse than hiking too late. McCafferty, who was one of the three (out of eight) MPC members who voted to hike the repo rate by 25 bp in June, said that “the economy has not slowed to the extent we feared” in the wake of the Brexit vote last June, and with inflation having been high “there is a need for change” and reverse the 25 bp rate cut of last August. This would take the repo back to 0.50% from the present historic low of 0.25%. Vlieghe, meanwhile, argued that the “consumption slowdown is here, it’s not over” that that he doesn’t think there’s going to be “sufficient offset from investment and net exports to compensate.”

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC minutes – The minutes to the June 13-14 policy meeting will be interesting for any additional insight the report may provide on the Fed’s hawkish gradual stance. Recall, the Committee generally overlooked weaker real sector data and a “transitory” slowing in inflation in recent months, and instead showed unexpected resolve toward normalizing policy. The minutes may provide some context, as well as the support behind that decision. Of course, the big question now for the markets heading into the second half of 2017 is whether the Fed will get cold feet on the doorstep of the balance sheet unwind, and if it will have the nerve to hike the funds rate for a third time this year.

EU Final PMI – Final Eurozone Services PMI readings for June are expected to confirm preliminary numbers – i.e. services reading of 54.7, suggesting robust expansion across both sectors.

UK PMI – The UK services PMI expected to soften to 53.5 after 53.8 in May.

US Factory Goods – May factory orders are expected to be -0.5% from -0.2% on April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japan and Hang Seng down as the stronger Yen weighed on exporters and lower oil prices hit energy producers. the front end Nymex futures picked up a bit after supply concerns hit prices once again, but remains below USD 46 per barrel. The ASX is managing marginal gains. FTSE 100 futures are also marginally higher, despite the rise in Sterling after BoE’s Saunders warned of rate hikes ahead. This should continue to see Gilts underperforming versus Bunds, although a stronger Pound also reduces inflation risks going ahead. In the Eurozone yields also continue to trend higher as the ECB is cautiously heading for exit steps, and while the 10-year Bund closed slightly lower yesterday, Italian and Spanish bond as well as stock markets underperformed, and market jitters will back the doves at the council. Today’s calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session as well as ECB minutes and Swiss inflation data.

FOMC minutes showed most officials said “idiosyncratic factors” were responsible for the softer trend in inflation, though several were concerned that the progress on inflation may have slowed. A couple of policymakers, however, saw rising inflation risk from the “undershooting of the jobless rate.” They also noted some financial market conditions had eased even as policy accommodation was being reduced. Committee members were divided over when to begin the balance sheet unwind, expressing a range of views. There were no clear insights in the minutes to better assess the timing of the balance sheet unwind. But, given the Committee decided to announce the balance sheet details at this meeting suggests the start could begin, as Yellen said, “sooner.” The Fed continues to believe a well telegraphed, and gradual approach to shrinking the balance sheet will limit market reaction. The Fed is also expected to delay rate hikes when it initiates the shrinkage of the portfolio, and that will give the data time to improve and hence support views that it’s idiosyncratic factors weighing. The minutes didn’t materially add to the markets’ body of knowledge on the normalization path.

US reports: Disappointing U.S. factory goods data, with price-led May declines for shipments, orders, and inventories of nondurable goods after small downward April revisions, alongside small upward adjustments in the available durables data for orders, shipments, and equipment, though with weaker inventories. The May data still showed a transportation and defense-led orders drop with lean inventories and resilient shipments. Inventories have yet to recover from the big 2015-2016 petro-hit, beyond last year’s Q3-Q4 bounce that was mostly reversed in Q1.

Eurozone: services PMI revised up to 55.4 with the final reading for June from 54.7 in the preliminary estimate, but still down from 56.3 in May. This saw the composite PMI revised up to 56.3 from 55.7 and versus 56.8 in May. Despite the drop in June, Markit reported that the Eurozone economy enjoyed its best quarter for just over six years in Q1 and while output growth slowed slightly in June, “continued robust inflows of new work and elevated business confidence kept the pace of job creation among the best seen over the past decade”. The average reading over the second quarter was the best since Q1 2011. Good news then that will back the ECB’s increasingly optimistic view of the economy, although with inflation still low and key players like Draghi and Praet insisting that this is largely thanks to the ECB’s expansionary policy, the central bank is not ready yet to commit to QE tapering. The UK June services PMI missed expectations slightly, dipping to a 53.4 headline reading after 53.8 in May.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB minutes – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts have be scheduled for 11:30 GMT today.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of July 1 is out today and a dip to 232k is expected from 244k last week and 242k in the week prior. Claims are always volatile this time of year as we move through auto sector retooling season and this year there are additional risks from the big build up in auto inventories.

Fedspeak – SF Fed’s Williams (non-voter) will be in Australia (03:45 ET) and Governor Powell is set to discuss housing finance reform from Washington (10:00 ET), while VC Fischer will speak from Washington on “Government Policy and Labor Productivity” (11:00 ET). Focus will then turn to Fed Chief Yellen from next week’s policy testimony before the House next Wednesday (10 ET), as her Q&A will follow-up her written testimony’s public release this Friday (11 ET).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, following sell offs in Europe and on Wall Street yesterday. Risk aversion and concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus continue to weigh on markets as yields spike after hawkish comments from ECB and BoE yesterday. FTSE 100 futures are in the red while U.S. futures are slightly higher. Bund yields are at the highest level since early 2016 and the 10 year Gilt closed above 1.3% as markets adjust to to the fact that global central bank support has peaked. Today’s calendar has industrial production data U.K. as well as U.K trade data, but markets will be looking ahead to U.S. Payroll data in the PM session.

US reports: revealed modest undershoots for trade and job market indicators but an upside June ISM-NMI surprise that left a neutral read for the economy on net. The trade deficit narrowed to $46.5 bln in May to leave a gap that was just $0.2 bln wider than indicated by the “advance” report, with service-led upside surprises in both exports and imports. For claims, we saw a 4k rise to 248k that bucked the usual auto retooling downdraft, though a claims drop is likely next week. ADP posted a lean 158k June rise, though we’ve seen a solid 218k average ADP increase thus far in 2017 that signals upside risk for our 185k June nonfarm payroll estimate. The ISM-NMI popped to 57.4 in June to leave that measure just below the 16-month high of 57.6 in February, with a firm 57.4 ISM-adjusted reading and a solid 55.8 employment index figure.

Canada: Yesterday’s reports continued the run of upbeat data, but we remain unconvinced that the Bank will hike rates next week. Base case remains for a 25 bp increase in October. Canada’s May trade report bodes well for Q2 GDP, as a 2.0% m/m gain in export volumes followed the 1.3% rise in April. Import volumes expanded 1.7% in May after the 0.3% gain in April. The mix of faster export growth relative to import growth in the May trade report is consistent with projection for a positive contribution from net exports to Q2 GDP after the hefty drag exerted in Q1. Hence, while Canada’s economic data remains strongly suggestive of a sustained uptrend in activity that will eventually deliver the return to full capacity and 2% inflation that is the Bank’s goal, the economy is not wildly outpacing the Bank’s scenario from the April MPR.

ECB’s: Weidmann joined the chorus of more hawkish sentiment as he noted that the recovery in Europe is opening the door to ECB normalization. This isn’t a surprise from the well known hawk, who was discussing the “Future of the Euro” with Austria’s Nowotny. Weidmann added that the timing of action and the pace of normalization is dependent on the sustainability of inflation. “For the credibility of monetary policy, it is decisive that the expansionary monetary policy is ended when it becomes necessary from a price-stability perspective.” The threat of downward price spirals has retreated, he said, lessening the need for the emergency bond purchase tactic to remain in place. However, he concluded that “for the moment, an expansionary monetary policy is justified to support the economic recovery and thus inflation,” though there are “different opinions on how much we need to step onto the stimulus accelerator and which instruments we should use.

Germany: Industrial production stronger than expected. Production rose 1.2% m/m in May, much more than anticipated after the correction in orders data the previous month. Energy production remained strong, while manufacturing growth picked up after two weak month, which helped to compensate for the correction in construction production. The annual rate improved to 5.0% y/y and data confirm expectations for a strong second quarter GDP growth rate, leaving Germany on course for an ongoing robust recovery. The euro remain underpinned following the fresh bout of hawkish-leaning remarks from ECB policymakers yesterday, which has been followed by an above-forecast 1.2% rise in German industrial production, which was well up on the median expectation for 0.3%

Main Macro Events Today

UK Man. Production & BOE – Production and trade numbers for May are also up today, where manufacturing output expected ticking up by 0.5% m/m and by 0.2% y/y. Also BOE Governor Carney is due to speak today regarding the economic impact of climate change at the G20 meeting.

U.S. Employment – June employment data is out today and should post a 180k headline for the month following 138k in May and 174k in April. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.3% from May, down from 4.4% in April.

Canadian Employment Data – Employment is projected to grow 20.0k in June after the 54.5k surge in May, as Canada’s labour market continues to tighten. Unemployment is expected at 6.6% in June, matching the 6.6% in May. The Ivey PMI is seen rising to 55.0 in June from 53.8 on a seasonally adjusted basis, which would leave the index above 50.0 for the thirteenth consecutive month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2017.

FX News Today

The FOMC’s decision to outline its balance sheet unwind last month kicked off the beginning of the end for the central banks’ emergency QE programs. Other central banks, including the BoE, ECB, and BoC have been following suit now too. The shift in tone was surprising given the downtrend in global inflation pressures and this will be a challenge going forward. But central bank-speak suggests policymakers are willing to look through that dynamic, especially as growth remains relatively solid. Right on cue, inflation and growth data will dominate global calendars, while Fed chair Yellen will give her semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony.

United States: U.S. markets will have a lot on their plates this week as they continue to assess the June jobs data, global developments in the aftermath of the G20 meeting, while looking ahead to Fed chair Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony and a batch of key data on inflation, sales, and production. There are several important data releases on the calendar, though not until Friday, which could help clarify the near-term picture for the Fed and the markets. The June CPI report will be the focus, with the headline expected to fall 0.2% thanks to the drop in energy prices, while the core edges up 0.1%. The annual pace should slow to 1.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y on the overall reading, while the core remains steady at 1.7% y/y. The Fed remains disappointed by the sluggishness, but the comments from the June minutes that the slowdown is a function of “idiosyncratic” factors suggests officials will continue to look through the data and concentrate more on economic growth. June retail sales will be the other report of note and are expected to post an unchanged reading overall .Other data over the week includes consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (Friday), the June NFIB small business survey is on tap (Tuesday), along with a Yellen favorite, JOLTS (Tuesday). Jobless claims and PPI, along with the June budget, are due (Thursday).

Fedspeak: Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday) and the Senate Banking Committee (Thursday) will highlight. Her comments will be scrutinized for any sign that the timing could be accelerated, with an announcement on the portfolio at the upcoming July FOMC, with the start of the shrinkage in September. Or given the weaker trend in inflation, we will listen to hear any indication the slowdown in inflation is giving her cold feet on further normalization, pushing off action on the balance sheet and rate hikes further into year end, or even 2018. Fedspeak from various others on the Committee will be of interest too. SF Fed’s Williams speaks from Australia (Monday 23:05 ET). Governor Brainard’s remarks on monetary policy (Tuesday 12:00 ET) will be closely monitored too. On the other end of the hawk-dove spectrum is KC’s George who will discuss the balance sheet and the economic outlook (Wednesday 14:15ET). Chicago Fed’s Evans (a voter) also will speak on monetary policy and the economy (Thursday11:30 ET). The hawkish Dallas Fed’s Kaplan attends and speaks at a conference on monetary policy (Friday 09:30 ET). The Beige Book (Wednesday) will be overlooked in favor of Yellen’s testimony, and won’t deviate from the moderate growth outlook.

Canada: In Canada, the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference (Wednesday) comprise the main event this week. A hawkish U-turn by the Bank via several recent appearances and interviews by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins have left a widespread expectation that the Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%.The data calendar is lean this week. Housing starts (Tuesday) are seen improving to a 200k pace in June from the 194.7k clip in May. The June Teranet/National HPI (Wednesday) and the May new home price index are also due this week.

Europe: European bond yields continue to rise, while Eurozone spreads are widening as ECB officials continue to mull exit strategies, despite the fact that the Bank still has an easing bias on QE and that tapering won’t start until early next year. This week’s data round is unlikely to settle the argument over inflation one way or the other as there’s unlikely to be an major revisions to final price data for June. German HICP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5% y/y, the French reading (Tuesday) at just 0.8% y/y, the Italian at 1.2% y/y and finally the Spanish at 1.2%. Those would all be sufficiently soft to back the doves’ arguments who maintain that the inflation remains too low and that the economy still needs a substantial degree of monetary support. Meanwhile, the hawks can find solace in May production numbers, which are expected to rise 1.2% m/m, more than doubling the 0.5% pace from April, supported by very strong German and French numbers. The data calendar also has German and Eurozone trade numbers. Germany issues 10-year Bunds (Wednesday).

UK: UK data has been flagging an onset of a stagnation in economic growth, with last week bringing unexpected weakness in production, trade, and house prices, and in all three of the PMI sector surveys. The new minority government, meanwhile, has managed to survive the early weeks of its existence, and negotiations with EU counterparts on Brexit will continue as planned. The “Great Repeal” bill will start to be debated in the coming weeks. The calendar this week is relatively quiet, highlighted by June labor data (Wednesday). The report is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at the cycle low of 4.6% in May. A key focus for policymakers and the markets alike, will be average household earnings, as any fresh signs of weakness will provide an offset to the hawkish stance of the BoE. The BRC June report on retail sales is also due (Monday), which will also be scrutinized for signs of weakness as incomes have tipped into negative growth in real terms in recent months.

Japan: In Japan, June PPI (Wednesday) is forecast slipping to 1.9% y/y from 2.1%, while the May tertiary index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.5% after rising 1.2% in April. Revised May industrial production will be released on Friday.

China: The June trade report (Thursday) should see the surplus widen to $42.0 bln from $40.8 bln. June retail sales are set for a Saturday release, and are forecast up 10.5% y/y from 10.7% previously.

Australia: In Australia, the pickings are slim this week. Top tier economic data is limited to housing investment (Tuesday), expected to bounce 1.0% m/m in May after the 1.9% drop in April. The Reserve Bank of Australia has nothing scheduled this week. The next event is the July 17 release of the July meeting minutes.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has June retail card spending (Tuesday), which we expect will rebound 0.5% after the 0.4% drop in May. REINZ house sales for June are due out during the week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting is on August 10. No change is expected to the current 1.75% rate through year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Equity markets remained in a positive mood in Asia overnight, with Hong Kong stocks heading for another gain of more than 1%, led by insurers and banks. The Nikkei is up 0.57%, with exporters underpinned by a weaker Yen. U.K. and U.S. futures are also moving higher, pointing to another positive session in Europe, where Eurozone markets in particular found solace yesterday in ECB comments suggesting that the ECB won’t tweak its forward guidance again until September. Oil prices are slightly higher on the day and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 44.48 per barrel. The European calendar remains pretty light. Released overnight U.K. BRC like for like retail sales came in much better than expected at 1.2%. Still to come Italy releases industrial production data for May.

US reports: U.S. consumer credit surged $18.4 bln in May, following the upwardly revised $12.9 bln April gain (was $8.2 bln). Non-revolving credit continued to lead the strength, rising $11.0 bln versus $11.8 bln previously. Revolving credit increased $7.4 bln after edging up $1.2 bln in April. For Q1, credit climbed $45.5 bln and was up $57.8 bln in Q4. Also, U.S. Fed’s Labor Market Conditions index rose 1.5 points in June following an upwardly revised 3.3-point May increase (was 2.3) and a 3.8-point April jump. This is a 13th straight monthly gain. The index is heavily weighted by the unemployment rate, and the rise to 4.357% from 4.294% in Friday’s jobs report was a factor behind the gain. The LMCI, a favorite of chair Yellen, is a composite indicator comprised of 19 already released variables and corroborates the view of a solid labor market.

ECB’s: ECB seen steady over the summer. Comments from Bank of France governor Villeroy over the weekend seem to confirm that the central bank will refrain from policy and guidance changes at the July meeting and wait until September, when the next set of forecasts are due to decide on whether to tweak its stimulus settings. At the same time ECB Chief Economist Praet said in a newspaper article that “we still need a long period of accommodative policy”, in what looks like a fresh attempt to calm the nerves of investors, after some hawkish comments saw Eurozone yields rising last week. Yesterday we also saw a release of Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence which fell back in July, with the total reading declining to 28.3 from 28.4 in the previous month. The indicator for the current situation still improved to 37.3 from 36.0, but the expectations index fell back to 19.8 from 21.0, the first decline since February.

Germany: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.3 bln in May, slightly higher than the EUR 19.7 bln in the previous month. Exports rose 1.4% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 0.9% m/m in April, while import growth stagnated at 1.2% m/m. The three months accumulated figure eased slightly, is is now below the total for Q1, which suggests trade is not making much of a contribution for Q2 GDP. Indeed, accumulated data for the first five months of the year show the total current account surplus falling back to EUR 98.0 bln from EUR 110.3 bln last year, while the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 100.1 bln from EUR 104.8 bln in the corresponding period 2016. Fresh signs then that the recovery this time around is not so much driven by external demand, but consumption and the domestic economy.

Main Macro Events Today

UK MPC Speeches – MPC Member Haldane is due to speak today at the ‘Essentials of Numeracy’ launch event, in London. Today as well, MPC Member Broadbent Speaks in Aberdeen at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry.

Canada Housing Starts – Housing starts are seen improving to a 201.5k pace in June from the 194.7k clip in May.

US NFIB & JOLTS – The June NFIB small business survey is on tap today, along with a Yellen favorite, JOLTS. NFIB expected to stay quite stable at 104.4 from 104.5 last time, while JOLTS job Openings expected to fall at 5.89M from 6.044M in April.

Fedspeak – Governor Brainard’s remarks on monetary policy at 12:00 ET will be closely monitored. She’s a voter and one of the more dovish on the Committee, though she has tacitly supported the Fed’s tightening actions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Nikkei and ASX underperforming and heading south as the Dollar weakened ahead of Yellen’s testimony today. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher U.S. stock futures are mixed as markets remain in the ban of central bank comments. Yields rose again across Europe and with central banks eying exit trend occasional dovish comments are unlikely to provide more than a brief halt in the uptrends in yields. Today’s data calendar has U.K. labor market data as well as Eurozone May production numbers. Germany auctions a new 10-year Bund.

US reports: revealed U.S. NFIB small business optimism index fell to 103.6 in June from 104.5 in May. It’s the lowest since the 98.4 in November. The index was as high as 105.9 in January, which was the best since the 106.1 print from December 2004. The all-time high is 107.4 from November 2004. The percentage of firms reporting plans to hire fell to 15% from 18%. On the other hand, U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slumped 301k in May to 5,666k after rising 182k to 5,967k in April. The rate slid to 3.7% from 3.9%. But, hirings increased 429k to 5,472k, rebounding from the 261k drop to 5,043k. The rate improved to 3.7% from 3.5%. And quitters increased 177k to 3,221k after falling 94k to 3,044k. The rate inched up to 2.2% from 2.1%. The headline figure is disappointing, but the quit numbers, a Yellen favorite, should offset. Lastly, the U.S. wholesale report revealed a disappointing 0.5% May wholesale sales drop after a 0.3% (was 0.4%) April decline, though we saw a 0.4% May inventory rise that beat the 0.3% climb in the advance indicators report after a 0.4% April drop. The May sales drop mostly reflected a 7.8% price-led petroleum plunge, though weakness was evident across the durables data as well.

BoE MPC member Broadbent kept mum on interest rates during a speech he delivered before the Scottish Council for Development and Industry earlier. Broadbent was among the majority of MPC members to vote for unchanged policy at the June meeting, which had been a surprise for markets as three of his colleagues voted for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate. He spoke mostly about his view on Brexit risks, concluding that “put simply, a significant curtailment of trade with Europe would force the UK to shift away from producing the things it’s been relatively good at, and therefore tends to export to the EU, and towards the things that it currently imports and is relatively less good at.” Broadbent argued that this, at least initially, would both lower income as trade shifts away from services exports, which the UK has a comparative advantage in, while raising costs as production shifted more towards food and machinery, areas where the UK has a comparative disadvantage. Sterling took a 15-20 pip tumble versus the G3 currencies, with markets appearing to take Broadbent’s words as meaning that he won’t vote for a tightening at the next MPC meeting on August 3.

Fed Governor Brainard: it’s “appropriate soon” to start balance sheet shrinkage, she said in her speech on Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization. That’s consistent with the messages from the June policy state, the minutes, and the SEP, though it’s important that the dovish governor echoed that sentiment. The Fed will continue to assess inflation, especially in light of the recent softening, before deciding on the rate path. Policymakers want to move cautiously on further rate increases. She also noted that the currency markets could be more sensitive to the Fed’s rate actions than on the balance sheet.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Labor Data -The U.K. labour market report for May is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at the cycle low of 4.6%. A key focus for policymakers and the markets alike, will be average household earnings, as any fresh signs of weakness will provide an offset to the hawkish stance of the BoE.

Fed Yellen – Yellen’s testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee (Thursday) will highlight .Her comments will be scrutinized for any sign that the timing could be accelerated, with an announcement on the portfolio at the upcoming July FOMC, with the start of the shrinkage in September. Or given the weaker trend in inflation, we will listen to hear any indication the slowdown in inflation is giving her cold feet on further normalization, pushing off action on the balance sheet and rate hikes further into year end, or even 2018.

BOC Statement – The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference comprise the main event today. A hawkish U-turn by the Bank via several recent appearances and interviews by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins have left a widespread expectation that the Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The positive mood on stock markets continued in Asia overnight as investors focused on the dovish side of Yellen’s testimony yesterday, which already saw U.S. and European markets closing with gains yesterday. In Japan though TSE and Nikkei erased early gains as banks and insurers weighed. Still, U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher, even if the BoC’s rate hike yesterday was a reminder that global central banks are eying exit steps, which means dovish central bank comments can temporarily halt, but are unlikely to stop the gradual rise in yields going ahead.

Fed Chair Yellen: reiterated the economy grew at a moderate pace, in her prepared remarks, while the labor market continued to strengthen. She also said she and the committee expect that the “evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate.” She also repeated policy is not on a preset course. There was also a repeat of the paragraph on uncertainties in the outlook, and she noted inflation, possible changes in fiscal and other government policies, and regarding the global economy. Bonds and stocks have rallied on these comments, and the dollar has gyrated, even though the gist of her remarks were already released in the Monetary Policy Report last Friday. Yellen on the whites of inflation’s eyes: she side-stepped a question on the exact timing of balance normalization, and whether the soft inflation path could impact the FOMC’s decisions. She added that the Fed has laid out plans to normalize balance sheet in a transparent way and reiterated it’s likely to begin this year and “relatively soon,” echoing the remarks from the policy statement. The Fed overlooked the weaker inflation and real sector data back in June when it hiked rates, suggested another is likely this year, and outlined balance sheet normalization details, and that view still seems to hold currently. Also, Yellen indicated the Fed has tried to outline the balance sheet runoff, and indeed, that was an addendum to last month’s FOMC policy statement. She expects the unwind process to go smoothly as the Fed has been methodical in informing the public.

Bank of Canada: raised rates 25 bps to 0.75%, matching widespread expectations. Recent data have boosted the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. They acknowledge the recent softness in inflation but judge it to be temporary. Given the lag between policy action and future inflation, they decided it was appropriate to raise rates. As for future moves, they will be “guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook.”. Hence a follow up hike in September is likely if the economic data remains encouraging and maintains the broadening among regions and sectors seen this year. An October hike (with no change in September) would send a more gradualist message, but given their U-turn in tone and rate hike yesterday, taking it slow is perhaps not a priority. BoC Poloz said that he does not “doubt that rates will move higher” in the full course of time. There is not a pre-determined path, with policy moves data dependent, he said. He responded to a question on if today’s hike was to remove the 50 bp in 2015 cuts or the start of a series of steps upward. Not surprisingly, he did not classify yesterday’s move as either of the two scenarios. The economy, he said, can handle well the move today. Another two hikes in 2018, in January and April.

German Jun HICP was confirmed at 1.5% y/y national CPI at 1.6% y/y. No surprises there, and although the slight uptick in the headline rate over the month was against the general trend in the Eurozone, even the German HICP is clearly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. Lower oil prices are playing a key factor as annual energy price inflation has now turned negative and stood at -0.1% y/y in June, down from 0.8% y/y in May and compared to 2.8% y/y at the start of the year. Prices for light heating oil rose merely 0.9% y/Y in June, after still rising 11.7% y/y in May and a staggering 42.5% y/y in January. So base effects from energy prices are now holding back the headline rate, and indeed the ECB already cut back its inflation projection on the back of lower than anticipated oil prices. More arguments then for the doves at the council, who are eager to reassure markets that nothing has changed so far, although that QE tapering will start early next year is almost certain.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI – June PPI data is out today and should post a -0.2% headline decline with a 0.2% core increase. This follows May figures which had a flat headline and a 0.3% core index. There is some downside risk to the headline as WTI oil prices dipped 7.0% on the month.

US Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of July 8 are out today and are expected to post a decline to 245k from 248k last week and 244k the week prior.

Fedspeak – Yellen’s testimony today on the Senate Banking Committee will highlight.

BOC NHPI – Canada’s calendar has New Housing Price Index which expected to decline 0.3% m/m in May after the 0.8% in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher overnight and are heading for a strong week, for Hong Kong the best of the year, helped by a rally in banks and underpinned by cautious comments from Yellen, who doesn’t seem to be in a rush to tighten policy. Central banks remain the key focus and the announcement that Draghi will be speaking at Jackson Hole shortly before the September policy meeting has sparked speculation that he will use the chance to lay out the ECB’s tapering plans, coupled with remarks from BoE’s MacCafferty that the BoE should revisit the guidance on the unwinding of QE sent European yields higher yesterday afternoon, while capping gains in Eurozone equities and seeing the FTSE 100 closing in the red. Stock futures are pointing to a rebound in the FTSE 100, and Yellen’s comments may help bond yields to come off highs at the end of the week. The European calendar has Eurozone trade data as well as final Italian HICP readings.

Fed Chair Yellen: has concluded her testimony yesterday. There wasn’t an attempt to walk back from the cautiously optimistic tone from yesterday’s testimony where she hedged the softer inflation dynamics. Other than her comment that the balance sheet is unwound is likely to push up rates at the long end, there weren’t any big revelations yesterday. That indication has seen the 30-year yield jump 5 bps to 2.925%, with the 5s-30s spread has steepened to 101.6 bps from 100.9 bps yesterday. It was as narrow as 93.5 bps on July 3. She said Q2 GDP growth should be “significantly stronger” versus Q1, but reaching a 3% pace would be “quite challenging.” Yellen on the balance sheet said that their intention is to shrink the balance sheet in a “slow, gradual, and predictable way. Fed has set out a detailed plan on how it will achieve that. Once triggered, the unwind is expected to run in the background. The run off should result in some increase in long term rates compared to the front end, she acknowledged, and the FOMC will take that into account as it sets the funds rate. She expects the funds rate to remain the principal tool of monetary policy. She repeated that the balance sheet and the quantity of reserves will be reduced over the next several years, but won’t go back to the pre-crisis levels.

U.S. reports: revealed a smaller than expected PPI downdraft into mid-year despite falling oil prices, with a lift from rising food prices thanks to hot and dry weather in the upper midwest. We also saw sustained lofty initial claims levels into the holiday week of July that defied the usual auto retooling headline, likely thanks to ongoing vehicle sector weakness and some extended summer plant shutdowns. For PPI, the 0.1% June headline and core price gain beat estimates thanks to a smaller than expected 0.5% energy price drop alongside a 0.6% food price rise. For claims, a 3k downtick to a still-elevated 247k trimmed a 6k rise to 250k (was 248k) in the prior week. Claims are averaging 247k in July, following lean prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. Next week’s BLS survey week reading should lie within the mix of 242k in June, 233k in May, and 243k in April, though the recent up-tilt may imply an overshoot.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Trade Balance – May Trade Balance for expected to post an increase at 20.3B from 19.6 B last month.

US Retail Sales – The June retail sales report expected to be a flat with the ex-autos figure up 0.2% This follows respective May figures of -0.3% for both the headline and ex-autos and 0.4% for both figures in April. There is possible downside risk from the recent declines in auto sales as well as declines in gasoline prices. Meanwhile. June CPI should post a flat headline as well with a 0.2% increase for the core. This compares to the May figures which had the headline down 0.1% and the core up 0.1% and April where the headline was 0.2% and the core 0.1%. An anticipated dip in gasoline prices could weigh on the release too.

US CPI and Industrial Production – June industrial production data is out today and should post a 0.3% increase for the headline following a flat rate in May and a 1.1% bounce in April. Capacity utilization should tick up to 76.8% from 76.6% in May and 76.7% in April. Mining and factory employment both climbed in the June which could provide a tailwind to the release.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2017.

FX News Today

The conundrum of improved growth and slowing inflation continues to bedevil central bankers as the opposing dynamics lead to conflicting policy prescriptions on normalization. But there’s a new wrinkle as QT, quantitative tightening, comes into view, alongside the more traditional tool of rate management, each of which have differing implications for bond markets. And the differing views of hawks and doves have resulted in a clash of commentary that’s done more to confuse and vex the markets regarding the course of policy, rather than provide stability through transparency. The markets will remain hypersensitive to policy actions and policy-speak near term, while keeping a close eye on inflation and growth data.

United States: U.S. markets will continue to assess Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony last week, where she remained optimistic on growth, but hedged on “transitory” inflation outlook. Headlining the data slate will be June housing starts, July PMIs and trade prices, none of which will be crucial for trading. Housing starts (Wednesday) are forecast rising to a 1,190k pace in June following the 5.5% drop to 1,092k in May. However, a rise in construction jobs last month suggests upside risk. The July Empire State index (Monday) is seen falling back to 15.0 after jumping 20.8 points to 19.8 in June (which was the highest since September 2014). Also, the July Philly Fed index (Thursday) should dip to 24.0 following the 11.2 slide to 27.6 in June. The 43.3 print from February was the highest going back to January 1984. The June trade price data (Tuesday) will be of interest. Import prices are forecast falling 0.5% after dipping 0.3% in May, with petroleum the main factor behind the weakness. Export prices should edge up 0.1% following a 0.7% drop in May where declines in food and ag prices weighed. Other releases on this week’s calendar are the NAHB homebuilder survey for July (Tuesday), May Treasury capital flows (Tuesday), and weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday).

Canada: Canada’s calendar has a healthy helping of economic data this week, but nothing from the Bank of Canada. However, the economic data could influence expectations for the September announcement. The June existing home sales report is expected to be released on Monday, with a 5.0% y/y drop projected for total sales. Manufacturing (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.0% m/m in May after the 1.1% improvement in April. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.3% m/m in May after the 0.8% gain in April. CPI is expected to dip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in May, leaving a slowing in the annual growth rate to 1.0% in June from the 1.3% y/y pace in May. But the June CPI is of little importance to the near-term policy outlook, given that the BoC is looking through the temporary factors (decline in auto prices and electricity costs) that are holding back total and core inflation growth. CPI will become more important later this year, when the temporary nature of the presumed factors restraining inflation will be tested.

Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week as traders look to the central bank for direction. Conflicting messages from ECB officials exacerbated volatility in recent weeks, and nerves are likely to remain high. The ECB is widely expected to be heading for tapering early next year, although Praet and Draghi are wary of committing prematurely to exit steps and have been instrumental in keeping the QE easing bias in place. Data releases this week are unlikely to add further ammunition to the arguments of the hawks at the council. The final reading of Eurozone June HICP inflation (Monday) is widely expected to be confirmed at just 1.3% y/y from 1.4% y/y in May, and clearly below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. However, base effects from energy prices are actually largely to blame for the slowing versus May, and core inflation ticked higher in the June preliminary to 1.2% y/y from 1.0%, as did the German headline rate. Still, with German PPI inflation seen slowing in May, the doves around Praet and Draghi will continue to argue that the low inflation environment still warrants a substantial degree of monetary stimulus. The ECB has acknowledged though, that growth is strengthening and that adverse deflation scenarios are no longer looking likely. That prompted the move to a neutral stance on rates in June. And, the expected further improvement in Eurozone consumer confidence (Thursday) to -1.1 from -1.3 should back expectations for ongoing robust growth going ahead. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) meanwhile is likely to reflect market concerns about the impact of tapering as global central banks eye exit steps. The Eurozone also has current account data for May (Thursday), and there’s a German 30-year Bund sale (Wednesday). The ECB releases its bank lending survey (Tuesday).

UK: This week’s schedule brings the June inflation report (Tuesday), where expected headline CPI to remain at 2.9% y/y, a four-year high. The sharp y/y weakening in sterling following the Brexit vote in June last year has kindled inflation, and at least three of the current eight-member MPC committee (normally nine, with one position currently vacant) are now itching to reverse last August’s 25 bp cut in the repo rate. Official retail sales for June (Thursday) has us expecting a 0.2% m/m rebound after the sharp 1.2% contracting on May.

Japan: Japan is closed on Monday for Marine Day holiday. The BoJ meeting (Wednesday, Thursday) will be a focal point given the world-wide interest in all things central banking. No changes in policy are expected in either rates or stimulus. The Bank may, however, downgrade its inflation outlook, while upping expectations for the economy, consistent with recent global patters and according to recent market chatter. Data includes the June trade report which expected the balance to flip to a JPY 500.0 bln surplus, from the JPY 204.2 bln shortfall in May. The softer yen likely supported a bounce in exports after three months of weakness. The May all-industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.0% m/m based on declines in retail sales and industrial production, after the prior 2.1% increase.

Australia: The June employment report (Thursday) is the highlight this week. A 20.0k gain is projected following the 42.0k improvement in May. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.6% from 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) releases the minutes to the July 4 meeting where the cash rate was left steady at 1.50% and Governor Lowe’s statement was consistent with an unchanged stance over the rest of the year as the August 2016 easing continues to roll through the economy.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has Q2 CPI (Tuesday), expected to rise 0.1% (q/q, sa) after the 1.0% gain in Q1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting is on August 10.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south even as rate hike expectations are being pushed out, as investors turn their focus on U.S. politics and rising doubts over Trump’s reform agenda. In China markets continued to fret about the prospect of tighter regulations and Sunac China Holdings Ltd came under pressure in Hong Kong amid media reports that banks are looking into the company’s credit risk. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on exporters as markets re-opened after a long weekend, although it was the AUD that outperformed. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, while oil prices are holding marginally above USD 46 per barrel. Today’s calendar has German ZEW investor sentiment as well as the ECB’s bank lending survey, while the U.K. has inflation numbers for June. The ECB meeting on Thursday continues to hang over Eurozone markets, with investors concerned that Draghi may already drop the easing bias on QE.

U.S. reports: U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.0 points to 9.8 in July, lower than expected, after rebounding 20.8 points to 19.8 in June. The latter was the highest since September 2014. Declines were broad-based. The employment component fell for a third consecutive month, sliding to 3.9 from 7.7, with the workweek at unchanged from 8.5. New orders fell to 13.3 from 18.1. But, prices paid edged up to 21.3 from 20.0, with prices received at 11.0 from 10.8. The 6-month general business outlook index eased to 34.9 from 41.7, with employment at 11.8 from 12.3. The future new order index was 33.4 from 42.2, with prices paid at 30.7 from 33.1 and prices received at 15.7 from 13.8. Capital expenditures are at 15.0 from 20.8, with technology spending at 11.8 from 11.5.

Final June EMU HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.3% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.4% y/y in May. The breakdown confirmed that the deceleration in the headline rate was mainly due to lower energy price inflation, which dropped back to just 1.9% y/y from 4.5% y/y in the previous month. Services price inflation meanwhile accelerated to 1.6% y/y. Still, while core inflation moved up from the 0.9% y/y in May, at 1.1% y/y it remains far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability and prices for non-energy industrial goods rose just 0.4% y/y, so plenty there for the doves at the ECB to argue with. Against that background Draghi is likely to stick to the message from June at this week’s council meeting and try to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – ZEW investor confidence today is likely to reflect market concerns about the impact of tapering as global central banks eye exit steps. A slight decline in the headline July number to 18.3 is expected from June’s 18.6. Those are still strong level, indicating that optimists outnumber pessimists, and so should not spark fresh growth concerns, although after some disappointing U.S. data and cautious comments from Yellen, it will underpin the halt in the rise in yields.

UK PPI & CPI – The June inflation report expected with headline CPI to remain at 2.9% y/y, a four-year high. The sharp y/y weakening in sterling following the Brexit vote in June last year has kindled inflation, and at least three of the current eight-member MPC committee (normally nine, with one position currently vacant) are now itching to reverse last August’s 25 bp cut in the repo rate. The PPI for June expected to decrease at -1.0% from -1.3% last month.

BoE Gov. Carney – BoE Governor Carney will give a speech today at the unveil of the new £10 note, in Hampshire.

US Trade Data & NAHB – The June trade price data will be of interest. Import prices are forecast falling 0.5% after dipping 0.3% in May, with petroleum the main factor behind the weakness. Export prices should edge up 0.1% following a 0.7% drop in May where declines in food and ag prices weighed. Other releases for today are the NAHB homebuilder survey for July and May Treasury capital flows .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.