Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

[new_trader]

For CNBC, This is what I wrote Aug 25, 2011, 9:59am

1) Raise taxes:

I have explained the Laffer curve to you but you refuse or cannot understand.

2) Reduce Spending

When the government says it will reduce spending it means it will reduce the amount it increases the deficit. That is like someone who is building up a debt of £500/month on their credit card saying that they have reduced spending because now it's only £450/month. You are too gullible and naive to understand.

3. Mild inflation > interest rates

The problem is that you don't understand what inflation is and you don't understand how interest rates are set.

Saying 'Mild inflation' is like saying a little bit pregnant. At one point you said taxes curb inflation "Raise taxes - demand side management to curb inflation", then you say "Exchange rates are NOT centrepiece of UK monetary policy. It is control of inflation. Exchange rates are consequence of interest rate, inflation and BoP".

For someone who keeps saying "Basic Economics" it is clear that you don't know the difference between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy. You also have never heard of an inflationary depression.

Inflation is an expansion of the Money Supply.

When was the last time you heard an analyst say: "The stock market is inflating"?
When was the last time you heard an analyst say: "The price of gold is inflating"?

Doesn't make sense does it?

Similairly, when was the last time you said that you need to raise your tyre or a balloon?

Doesn't make sense either.

Prices go up and down, money supply inflates and deflates. A balloon expands and increases in size when it is inflated, and likewise, money supply expands or increases in size when it is inflated.

The definition of inflation has changed over time and is now accepted to mean something very different from its original definition. Dictionaries only reflect what is currently popular, so such definitions should not be blindly accepted.

An increase in the money supply might not necessarily lead to rising prices, but if you have rising prices after a huge increase of the money supply then you would have to conclude it is a direct consequence of the money supply expansion. Much like what is happening now.

If modern economists were miners, they would walk into a coal mine with a canary and upon seeing the canary drop dead they would begin to theorise on what might have killed it. One would say that perhaps it was a heart attack, another would say that it may have died of a brain tumour, another would say it was malnutrition. The modern economist miners will keep theorising about what killed the canary until they all dropped dead from inhaling noxious gases.

Increasing the money supply - Debasement. (BASIC ECONOMICS!)

When gold and silver was used in legal tender a government that wanted to spend more money than it had would increase the supply of money by altering the quantity of gold and silver in the coins. By adding less valuable metals in the mix it could make more coins out of the supply of gold and silver that it had.

This is simple arithmetic.

1 ounce gold makes 1 x 1 ounce coin with a face vaue of £100-

Mix gold with copper:

Result

1 ounce gold makes 2 x 1 ounce coins with a face vaue of £100-

Currency has been debased but the Government tries to pass it off as pure gold. Smart people know that each coin is now worth only HALF what it used to so they now demand two coins as payment for their goods and services.

Result, prices have risen as a direct result of debasement or expansion of the money supply.

Bad money drives out good.

As people begin to realise that their money is being devalued they hoard the 'good' money so it is now removed from circulation until only the new, 'bad' money is in the economy. Because there is less money circulating in the economy the Government would have to make hoarding illegal, but it would be too costly and inconvenient to send police from door to door to find and confiscate the pure gold coins.

Solution?

Paper money. The government can increase the money supply so that it can spend more than it earns. The government does not have to worry about hoarding because any money that you 'hoard' is devalued automatically.

Result? Prices rise.

Inflation is also known as a stealth tax as it robs hard working citizens of their purchasing power. A government would be very unpopular if it taxed citizens 5% a year on their savings in the bank. It is much easier to reduce purchasing power by 5% a year because most people are like Atilla in that they don't understand economics and what is really going on.

The smart people know what is going on and they try to 'hoard' money by buying gold or other fixed assets that the Government cannot debase, or they change their money into a different, more sound currency.

Result?

Local money loses value against other currencies. Imports become more expensive. If imported raw materials become more expensive then any locally produced products which use those raw materials also become more expensive.


Inflation and interest rates.

If inflation is a debtors best friend then it must logically follow that inflation is a creditors worst nightmare. Who would lend out money if they were to get less in return? NOBODY (apart from Atilla), that is who!

When you put money in the bank you are essentially a creditor of the bank.

Who in their right mind would want to earn a rate of interest that is less than the rate of inflation? The answer is - nobody apart from Atilla, who thinks it is a brilliant idea.

So, nobody (apart from Atilla) will keep their money in the bank. Result? Interest rates need to rise to encourage savings so the bank has capital that it can use to make loans.

How does the Bank of England override this and keep interest rates artificially low so that Government can keep spending newly printed, debased money?

Answer: Debt Monetization and Q.E

How does the Government pay for this?

Increased taxes!

So, as you become impoverished by having to pay more money for your food, more money for your gas, more money for your electricity, more money for your clothing, more money for your petrol, more money for your rent, and more and more taxes while earning less income on your savings, just say to yourself that Atilla thinks it is all wonderful. None of this will fix the economy.

Spain in crisis, Greece in crisis, UK injecting another £100 billion into the economy, the USA struggling...all because Politicians don't know how to do anything else except print money. How can anyone with a brain think that devaluing everyone's money will help?

Meanwhile the debasement of paper money continues.

 

[Liquid validity]

CNBC ....... there it is - again and again and again, higher and hgher plateaux of stupidity.


Poor CNBC experts, technicians and the like - and the great Jack Shannep who could NOT guess direction until way after the fact as seen here in this June 4 article.

And here in this thread with the time and date stamp behold solid evidence that NOBODY saw the turn coming

I love this gem, "guessing direction is easy"



Dow theorist Schannep throws in the towel - The Tell - MarketWatch

In the right market conditions guessing market direction is easy.
I stand by that quote.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...-lifetime-preps-start-now-63.html#post1884318

You ignored the examples I gave as it suits your insular argument to do so.
They are all based on market conditions when market sentiment was clearly one way traffic.

An electronic financial market is no different to any other market.
Supermarket analogy - some people are in and out quickly, others are in
for longer buying more. All have their own reasons, overall footfall traffic
is balanced with no clear bias.

Fire breaks out in the supermarket, everyone heads in one direction - the exit.
Market direction is now clear.
In those conditions guessing direction is easy.
Its volatility and stop placement that create the problems.
If you can't grasp that you really are in trouble.

As for holding a postion in EURUSD over Greek election weekend...
Anybody with half a brain is sitting out to see whether the Greeks completely
reject austerity and the euro or stick with austerity with added concessions.
Why be in a trade during that...mind boggling.

Next up, your dismissal of day traders as clueless herd idiots with no long term view,
did it ever occur to you that having a large part of your bankroll tied up
in a few position trades during uncertain times might not be a good idea?

With daytrading, far from being uncertain about long term events, it protects against them.
The only financial risk is daily stop losses, required margin and slippage.
Granted with tight stops slippage stings more, or can even be an account killer.
So can a brokerage folding and taking your postition trade bankroll with it.

Fair enough, all trade durations carry their own unique risks.
The most laughable dismissal of all is that risk management is for pu$$ies.
Absolutely astounding, risk management is about the only f**king thing traders do agree on:

Quotes from famous traders and investors

So here we have a group of guys who have collectively taken billions of dollars out of the market and they don't agree on thing regarding how to make money. Not one. So what is a person to do?

Is there anything they do agree on?

Just one: money management

� "My basic advise is don't lose money" - Jim Rogers.
� "I'm more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand." - Marty Schwartz.
� "I'm always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have" - Paul Tudor Jones.
� "Rule number one of investing is never lose money. Rule number two is never forget rule number 1" - Warren Buffet.

� "If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure... ... I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I'll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential." - Monroe Trout
� "If you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
� "The best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses." - Tom Baldwin
� "Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical." Larry Hite.

I really am convinced you have Narcissistic personality disorder.
Either that or you are a lulz troll or a reincarnation of ODT

 

[Pferd]

post was from Feb 2012 on page 30


The sheer beauty of the Time and Date stamp - again. And note that Pferdy has not yet come back to congratulate me - as promised. A man who can't even keep his own WORD is ..............

Would you be so kind to let me know for which reason I have to congratulate you? Maybe DOW in 12700 pts? ****ing moron.

 

[deadbroke]

Hi deadbroke,

SPX / EURUSD / GBPUSD / AUDUSD / GOLD / SILVER bullish warning on daily charts strengthened further on Friday and further upside expected.
Shorts will be squeezed !

DOW initial target approx 13,170

USDX bearish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & further downside expected.

-------------------------------------

SPX big picture remains very bearish and unfortunately this won’t
change. Market intevention only postpones the major crash, it can not
prevent it. This deferment also ensures the inevitable crash will be even
worse.

Monthly USDX indicators continue to warn of significant long term US
dollar upside.

Hey buddy, don't tell me you're still posting at EliteTrader? Good to see you again. You're always welcome here.

 

[deadbroke]

For CNBC,

At T2W there are 100% trading winners - easily concluded by just reading the board for a mere few days.

Yet the evidence in the real world is out there that a high percentage of all trader lose consistently

Stress test for traders: Do you need a new job? - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

Lord have mercy, how deadbroke laffs and laffs at these jackasses.

Post 496 is the most important lesson in trading for ALL members of bulletin boards - especially T2W and Elitetrader. If it was up to me I'd send the whole lot to Iraq or Somalia.

 

[deadbroke]

Why T2W is a pit of liars and cheats and deluded individuals and why I consider them all as I would a bug under my shoe - solid evidence that has existed in study after study with oh several brokerage houses saying the same thing about trading losses over the years but this study brings it out into the forefront by stating that

regardless of country the pattern and result is the same



Stress test for traders: Do you need a new job? - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch




Results of the STUDY:


(1) “The more you trade the less you earn.”

deadbroke agrees 100%

deadbroke's total number of trades per year is what an average realtime trader trades in one week


(2) "In fact, about 80% of all day traders lose money"

deadbroke thinks its more like 95% but will defer to the study as it was quite well done.


(3) "The bottom line is simple: Most traders do lose money. But most are also born optimists, think they’re different, above average, the exception to the odds"

100% on the money.


(4) "“North American Securities Administrators found that 77% of day traders lost money.” Bloomberg BusinessWeek says 82% of all day traders lose money"


(5) "Get this: Even the traders who did make money in their trading were net losers after transaction costs were deducted"


(6) "Rare 5% have the profile of a winning trader "

There you have it, that's why deadbroke thinks the % of losers is 95%, always said so, always will because Nature never changes in the mind, its there for good.


(7) "The personality type of winners is the same, they need to be in on the action, but they’re disciplined, got a system, stick to it, turn on the thrill of hunting for higher returns. It’s a fix, a high, an endless stream of instant gratifications"

deadbroke has been defined nicely here

 

[deadbroke]

In the right market conditions guessing market direction is easy.
I stand by that quote.

Here come the qualifications to the stunning stupidity, "guessing market direction is easy"



I've gotta say that this cat is the dumbest person at T2W. But the longer I stay here the more surprised I become by the bottomlessness of the bear market in intelligence.

 

[deadbroke]

As for holding a postion in EURUSD over Greek election weekend...
Anybody with half a brain is sitting out to see whether the Greeks completely
reject austerity and the euro or stick with austerity with added concessions.
Why be in a trade during that...mind boggling.

More proof that this is the dumbest trader at T2W, so immersed in WRONG theories that its folly to risk money on trading.

The correct action is to be SHORT without bothering about who is f*ckin who or what's going on in Greece or Timbuktoo.

Why?

Simple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Because the TREND is DOWN! End of BASIC Trading 101.

 

[deadbroke]

I really am convinced you have

Narcissistic personality disorder.


Either that or you are a lulz troll or a reincarnation of ODT

That's how we guys get hammered by women in a discussion - first they pretend they are discussing, when they're losing they psychobabble and go into character analysis.

 

[Liquid validity]

More proof that this is the dumbest trader at T2W, so immersed in WRONG theories that its folly to risk money on trading.

The correct action is to be SHORT without bothering about who is f*ckin who or what's going on in Greece or Timbuktoo.

Why?

Simple!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Because the TREND is DOWN! End of BASIC Trading 101.

If Greece stick with austerity and the Euro do you still think the trend will be down?
Silly me, I'm forgetting, me saying direction is clear in certain market conditions is bo11ocks.
Yet you already know the outcome of the Greek election,
and you don't see that as a contradiction...what a f**king tard

 

[deadbroke]

Take this deadbroke aphorism to the bank - make it your stable datum and it will save your trading life ......

No now famous trader is ever going to give you ANY secret, EVER

Those who cannot trade write books

Find your own road, your own system and then go with it ALONE.


As for all the advice out there from Warren Buffett and others like him,

SMD

 

[deadbroke]

If Greece stick with austerity and the Euro do you still think the trend will be down?
Silly me, I'm forgetting, me saying direction is clear in certain market conditions is bo11ocks.
Yet you already know the outcome of the Greek election,
and you don't see that as a contradiction...what a f**king tard

Let me simplify it for you ...

I'm on an island with only an internet connection to my brokerage account with live prices for EurUsd. I've not seen the news for years, all I watch is DVD movies. I live alone and have no contact with anybody.

All I got is live EurUsd prices.

TREND is down = stay SHORT.

End of story

------------------------------------------

now you and other co*ksuckers please come in and complicate this magnificent simplicity and f8ck it up real good.

Just another day at Retard Central

 

[deadbroke]

1H Dow Jones now has a quicker short reentry if steeper uptrendline is taken out
as arrows show

same chart same same no change

 

[deadbroke]

Now I wait for the first wave down to complete and a nice rally begins. The top of that rally will be timed and shorted.

quote from June 1, ONE day before the reversal. Is that perfect timing or what?

The prescience of deadbroke is staggering.


Therefore rally expected and waited for and now sitting back to short the top of the rally.

All called in advance!!!! :whistling

 

[deadbroke]

A flaw uncovered in counting waves by reviewing both Quarterly and Monthly and then dropping down to daily to apply the technique (since waves are fractals the technique should be identical) ......

see chart for how I see the TOP aborning NOW with this change ....

so what will I do?

I will take the marginal overall Dow loss when Dow drops to around or below the 200-day m.a., this being close to or in the vicinity of the Dec 20 time period when I went wrong - in wave (iv) down as shown. Then I will go to the sidelines and time the (v) top and start all over with my SHORT.

The (iv) drop might or might not occur right away but it is in the cards even if we go higher than the very recent high a few days ago.

That is the plan, NOW.

For CNBC,

post from March 12 repeated outlining my modus operandi

 

[deadbroke]

Estimating completion of the TOP ......

For the current wave v ....

waves 1 and 2 together took 8 weeks.

wave 3 is ongoing, nearest magic number is 21 weeks but this is too short for wave 4 so a more realistic expectation is 34 weeks.

Therefore waves 3 and 4 completion probs in July.

Then the last wave up, namely wave 5 gets underway and ought to be a multiple of wave 1 which took 8 weeks.

Will revisit this later down the road for more time based eval of the TOP.

re-post from March 13 on page 42

 

[deadbroke]

Vacation till April 5 so might not be any posts, so here is the summary of stance ...

NO change in overall Great Depression CALL. All Dow SHORTs remain as-is.

upcoming mini-crash is wave 4 down - if crash is indeed just a mini-crash then will look to close all SHORTs at around the 200-day m.a. which will give me a marginal loss. If the min-crash goes south further I might even be lucky to breakeven or go green. Then we start the timing again for the last wave up, namely wave v.

If the min-crash is instead the real thing, we will know this by the nature of the drops then I won't change a thing.

That is the entire PLAN.

re-post from March 13 - page 42

 

[deadbroke]

Do you understand now why nobody takes this thread seriously?

For CNBC,

this poster says it all about T2W :whistling

 

[deadbroke]

Vacation till April 5 so might not be any posts, so here is the summary of stance ...

NO change in overall Great Depression CALL. All Dow SHORTs remain as-is.

upcoming mini-crash is wave 4 down - if crash is indeed just a mini-crash then will look to close all SHORTs at around the 200-day m.a. which will give me a marginal loss. If the min-crash goes south further I might even be lucky to breakeven or go green. Then we start the timing again for the last wave up, namely wave v.

If the min-crash is instead the real thing, we will know this by the nature of the drops then I won't change a thing.

That is the entire PLAN.

From March 13, post #335



>>>>> If the min-crash is instead the real thing, we will know this by the nature of the drops then I won't change a thing. <<<<<<


Unfortunately for me I can't say much about the nature of the drop. Its not clear to me whether this is an impulse wave or not.

So my only guide is the May 1 top and June 4 bottom. Only a taking out of either will clear things up for me. If top is taken out then it confirms what I said about it being a wave 4 correction with the last upwave 5 to take out the May 1 high.

I am leaning towards the TOP IS ALREADY IN but confidence is not high in this regard.

Things will clear up soon enough.

 

[deadbroke]

Anyway, farewell, I can't be arsed anymore

Please keep your word. Goodbye.