FX Trading May 21-25

[Crap Buddist]

Nice entry! Where's your stop/target?

Stop, is at 1.9892 target, hold until the trend ceases.or market reverse. Ive positioned short, so i'll hold that. looking at the chart I could see 1.9875/85 zone for entry short, and was thinking would be nice if it popped up there to get short.

 

[JohnG FX]

Great points JohnG! I ended up doing 3. On FX Im generally a swing trader, so will hold for a couple of days, On commodities, I have both an intraday and position system. I used to be hopeless at trading the Dow, but have been doing very well on it in recent months, trading an "intraday" strategy (although, I will hold sometimes overnight).

FWIW, Im think price will shoot up to the 540´s in the opening session on the Dow, before taking a plunge. Im simply not convinced that the sub prime mortgages issue is over or that the Fed can sit by and watch inflationary pressure build much longer. Just my 2 cents of course

I agree totaly. the sub prime is going to spill over IMO.

Daily MACD looking very toppy

 

[Atilla]

hi zuke. good trade there.

my first answer would be to follow your own exit rules. those are the best you have and those are the ones to use.

for me it would have to be #3. I dont use MAs so no clue and no clue of the price action there. If that MA is support, then, close and reshort on break and pullback.

j

by the way, potential bull flag cable 240 min charts. target to the sky.

If we get bad jobless and new home sale stats it certainly will break 1.99 and launch a new offensive on 2.00+

However, if the news is good then I was thinking we might see 1.97 again.

My gut instinct given last months increase and the fact that we are in spring summer months when home sales rise, it's likely to be higher. 50/50 so not really sure big .

If this happens and as the DOW has surged to such highs and some people have already pencilled in 13700 then cable will possibly strugle to hold 1.98.

Very tough call.

 

[Crap Buddist]

1.9850 goes with some conviction or consolidation below it then we may see acceleration down from there, had a prod down earlier up, now for a retest. as I type it is....

 

[trendie]

Fooled by Randomness (N Taleb)

section titled "The Backtester": (overview)

Use historical data and apply rules to give positive expectancy.
eg; buy NASDAQ shares taht have clsoed 1.83% above last weeks average.
If I dont get a good result, I can change the value to 1.2%.
( or keep trying until I get a pre-determined result)

What is happening?
I am "fitting" the rules to the data. This activity is called "data snooping".
The more trials I apply, the more likely I will get something that "works".
"I am convinced that there exists a tradable security in the Western world that would be
100% correlated with the changes in temperature in Ulan Bator, Mongolia".

[the chapter discusses the importance to compare the results to ALL participants, not just to the survivors.]

fascinating read.

EDIT: certainly made me think about my MAs!! (considering the number of variations I had to reject before getting mine. - and still tweak every moon-saturn-venus trine.)

 

[oiltanker]

traders magazine came in this morning so have been reading that. what a hoot. its so reassuring to read other trading strategies especially those that involve astrology. one guy has a system that anticipated a turn of the market that just happened to be the day of the london bombings. Some don't use any indicators at all just price which seems a bit zen.

They do a review of a book called Traders, Guns and Money by S. Das who, after 30 years in the biz, talks about what really happens in derivatives market including business meetings where clients expected girls and 'the white stuff' to be sent to their hotel rooms. How the derivative market is a place of greed and ignorance where shady figures make riches while putting all the risk on the clients. Sounds like some trading seminars i've been too

 

[2be]

Cable out of sync with EUR/USD, clearly visable on hourly. Reasonably good news from Germany, and EUR has not done much about it. Poss long entry on EUR. This then can lift the cable up.

 

[2be]

Long EUR/USD @3437 SL3417 Target 3500

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Trading got bit on the wild side yesterday. My positions are back on a more relaxed footing today. With much more acceptable levels and the prospect of one or two opportunities eyed for later in the session could turn a profit from the fiasco that was yesterday. Currently around -60 overall on the 2 pairs.


Cable:
Trading has been on the lethargic side overnight and easing only slightly this morning by around 40 points. On a positive note, the Dollar looks to be buoyed by talk of FED rate hikes on the horizon. But rumours will be rumours and hardened traders know this only to well, which could have the opposite effect on Cable and send it skyward once again. Targeting the low side 1.9680 level.


Euro:
The euro is trading as expected and remains weak overall. Downward targets are at around 1.3350.

 

[smbtnt]

Long at 9845, stops 9815, target 9880
Small stakes as its a contratrade.

banked a few at the top range of 15min triangle, breakout/fade imminent.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Might have been dreaming and only caught the end of it, but I think An Expert on Sky said something about cable being likely to fall to around 1.93, which makes me quite confident it'll be over 2 again fairly soon.
btw, zuke, have you tried putting on trailing stops?

 

[oiltanker]

cable is still in my downchannel heading into a little triangle at 1.98. just for a laugh i have taken off all indicators from some charts and just left the r/s lines to see if it makes any difference to the outcome of the trading decisions.

 

[jacinto]

cable is still in my downchannel heading into a little triangle at 1.98. just for a laugh i have taken off all indicators from some charts and just left the r/s lines to see if it makes any difference to the outcome of the trading decisions.

Oi!!

how about i do the same, and put all the indicators on my chart, and see if i can make decisions at all

you will be surprised. once you go dark you never turn back!

EDIT: on a serious note: think the Wasp strat would go long at about 9860 in 2 mins, prior to the breakout of the flag. will update chart.

 

[Compounding]

Euro:
The euro is trading as expected and remains weak overall. Downward targets are at around 1.3350.

I believe the EURO might have met it's daily low just a few hours ago at 1.3424 champ . Now will be a good time to be long the EURO or the Pound. Forget the "Big Bad News" and how it will affect the market and you's guys positions...the markets will take care of themselves.

Im long Europe/United States at 1.3439 with a S/L at 1.3424. Can't wait for the "news" ....:cheesy:

 

[smbtnt]

Long GBP/JPY @ 241.00, IB4 breakout.

 

[wasp]

Oi!!

how about i do the same, and put all the indicators on my chart, and see if i can make decisions at all

you will be surprised. once you go dark you never turn back!

EDIT: on a serious note: think the Wasp strat would go long at about 9860 in 2 mins, prior to the breakout of the flag. will update chart.

What is this with my strat being used everywhere....?! First Trendie, now you! Still trying to sell it some overly wealthy Chinese business men in Macau so shhhhhh! :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

What is this with my strat being used everywhere....?! First Trendie, now you! Still trying to sell it some overly wealthy Chinese business men in Macau so shhhhhh! :cheesy:

ok, ok, ill delete it. Im sure nobody reads what I write anyway, and nobody knows.


So, that is the entry, right?

 

[wasp]

ok, ok, ill delete it. Im sure nobody reads what I write anyway, and nobody knows.


So, that is the entry, right?

As a_gnome rightly pointed out a while back I did change to the hourlies but its not looking far off it at the moment. Short at the moment but could be long on the next turn of the hour... who knows....!

 

[Crap Buddist]

Long GBP/JPY @ 241.00, IB4 breakout.

hmm, just noticed a spread of 4 pips oanda are quoting, thats not bad , coming down a bit from 6/7. dunno how long its been offered at 4 ,

 

[jacinto]

As a_gnome rightly pointed out a while back I did change to the hourlies but its not looking far off it at the moment. Short at the moment but could be long on the next turn of the hour... who knows....!

didnt know you changed to the hourlies.

gave a nice entry, and immediately into profit. way earlier than the price pattern. nice.