ok, let me have a look.
since i have had about 5 mins free to trade today, only looked for a scalp in the morning, and thought i could just leave a longshot, so really didnt study it. hold on. give me 5
OK, to be honest, it looks more like a consolidation of breaking a daily up channel. i would be wary of a short here. but then again, you never know, now do you
RE carry trades, well, i cant see the 10 year treasuries so no clue, but seeing the dow and its volatility, i would imagine it is 10-T induced.
its a daily and a 4hr chart. the 60 min is just noise in this case IMHO
EDIT: longer time frames on the daily. a short is a risky bet, but you never know if you can get to the lower end of the wedge. I personally wouldnt.
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Its a perfect range b/o opportunity, however going against the carry trade is going to require a lot of balls imo. I am currently short (-30 as we speak) but Im confident that the 166 level is very strong so a close above signals a b/0 north, whereas a close below 165.40 signals a run down to at least 164.75 imho. My big concern is that the GBP/JPY shows no sign of falling and bounced twice off the 245.85 pivot this morning. Those of us holding shorts need either Fukui to start talking hawkishly, the BOJ to tighten money supply, or the Chinese to raise rates
oiltanker
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thanks. not sure there is any reason to bet against the carry. its not 'overbought'. just looked a nice classic pattern of s/r and shrinking range.
some reports say when the carry breaks it'll freefall so i guess you could stick a sell 100pts down and you still might get a nice slice of pie ? [not that i'm going to do that]
some reports say when the carry breaks it'll freefall so i guess you could stick a sell 100pts down and you still might get a nice slice of pie ?
[not that i'm going to do that]thanks. not sure there is any reason to bet against the carry. its not 'overbought'. just looked a nice classic pattern of s/r and shrinking range.
some reports say when the carry breaks it'll freefall so i guess you could stick a sell 100pts down and you still might get a nice slice of pie ?
I think if you put sell orders in at 165 on EURJPY and 245.30 on GBP/JPY, you will catch any significant move down. Wehn the carry trade unwinds, it does it big style! Have a look at the daily candle for GBP/JPY on Feb 27th this year. Something like 700 pips in 1 day.
well, i got nothing againts shorting euryen, actually i like it :cheesy:
but i dont see a setup for a short. but thats me. i only look for shorts on this thing when the daily and the 4 hr say it, otherwise, its longs longs longs longs and after you have finished going long, then you can go long again :cheesy:
ok, got to cook dinner for the kid, otherwise, you are welcome to do it forme
evening
j
but i dont see a setup for a short. but thats me. i only look for shorts on this thing when the daily and the 4 hr say it, otherwise, its longs longs longs longs and after you have finished going long, then you can go long again :cheesy:
ok, got to cook dinner for the kid, otherwise, you are welcome to do it forme
evening
j
Offshore Trader
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Just got back from 3 1/2 hours of pouring rain in a golf competition, which really summed up the day.
Going back to the volatility thing, the one encouraging thing is that my breakout methods are still making in money despite the dreadful conditions, it's just that it isn't enough and the returns are way to small to justify the risk at the moment. Having said that I'm going to stick with it, in the blind belief that things will change and more sensible returns are forthcoming. Only if the p&l shows long term losses is it a reason to pull the plug IMHO, particularly when the markets are just about as bad as they can get.
It's noticeable that the volatility problem is only fx because the stock markets are great at the moment.
Going back to the volatility thing, the one encouraging thing is that my breakout methods are still making in money despite the dreadful conditions, it's just that it isn't enough and the returns are way to small to justify the risk at the moment. Having said that I'm going to stick with it, in the blind belief that things will change and more sensible returns are forthcoming. Only if the p&l shows long term losses is it a reason to pull the plug IMHO, particularly when the markets are just about as bad as they can get.
It's noticeable that the volatility problem is only fx because the stock markets are great at the moment.
Crap Buddist
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Finally access. exit of yesterdays 1.9927 long at 50 for +23.
Bullish at the mo waiting to attempt another long.
exit of yesterdays 1.9927 long at 50 for +23.Bullish at the mo waiting to attempt another long.
oiltanker
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long
looking for r1 to r2.
i missed the earlier entry P [ish] to R1 because my network was down so i have set limit to 10pts in case P to R1 was it. Price still walking up the lines but not zooming past 1.9950 level.
have also put a sell order r1 to P as it seems reasonable to expect a sell off later today?
looking for r1 to r2.
i missed the earlier entry P [ish] to R1 because my network was down so i have set limit to 10pts in case P to R1 was it. Price still walking up the lines but not zooming past 1.9950 level.
have also put a sell order r1 to P as it seems reasonable to expect a sell off later today?
nice looking 'breakout' of 'range' on the eur/yen?
As you say J long long and long again.
hows that song go?
'up up and away on my beautiful carry trade balloon....'
yeah,
, would have been an easy trade from where we were discussing. then again why didnt we take it think its making a channel and the top is around 166.55. but yesterdays consolidation-triangle gives a target 166.73.
im done for the week. will take me ages to know how to install my upgrade.
j
and those wasp indicators are quite nice actually.
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Stopped out at breakeven. Maybe been a little zealous in moving my stop to breakeven at the moment. Think that is just a lack of confidence in this market.
Looks like swissy was the best ride of the morning, nice short from the pivot. I was out so missed it.
