FX Trading May 21-25

[Crap Buddist]

+4 short cable 1.9848, trying to give it as long as to be in for any break from range, but signal on my setup suggests it aint gonna be north, hence short. Would liked it to whip up mid 60's again but, and it might do yet, but just see it flagging.

Personally I cant risk holding for a value entry, give it best judgement.

Lets see what happens. short 48 stop outside the high. for now

 

[smbtnt]

+4 short cable 1.9848, trying to give it as long as to be in for any break from range, but signal on my setup suggests it aint gonna be north, hence short. Would liked it to whip up mid 60's again but, and it might do yet, but just see it flagging.

Personally I cant risk holding for a value entry, give it best judgement.

Lets see what happens. short 48 stop outside the high. for now

"IF" there was to be a move today then it will be southbound imo and hence will hold onto original short trailers and add to position once vital stop levels are taken out.

 

[Crap Buddist]

It could, heaven forbids, stays between 80 and 30 for the rest of today?

yeah maybe a friday afternoon meltdown ? Good experience dealing with a nasty range, ive got a theory if you can trade those and make it out alive, then all else should be easy? I dunno.

 

[Crap Buddist]

"IF" there was to be a move today then it will be southbound imo and hence will hold onto original short trailers and add to position once vital stop levels are taken out.

Yeah positioned short now, lets see if they bring it on. Times pushing on a bit though.

maybe the asians will run it down sunday overnight? I wont be in for it though. would of thought maybe 1.9770/80 was on the cards at some point at least.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Cable traded within a steady 30 point range overnight. Early morning saw a 20 point upward move to the 1.9880 levels only to be swiftly rejected, retreating 30 points to the 1.9850 area. Cable now looks set to continue the 30 point range bound trade for the remainder of the morning.

Cable: A lower move is likely to come later this morning, touching the 1.9820 level. US open should see continued Dollar demand taking a further toll on cable. Sub 1.9800 is likely before the close of the London session.

Addition:

Cable: A quick re-test of the 1.9880 level is possible if a break below 1.9850 is not sustained.


Euro: Update.

With buyers of the Euro waiting in the wings from the 1.3455 levels and above, and a possible Cable re-test of the 1.9880 level, which will have a knock-on affect on the Euro pair and a self perpetuating situation could quickly develop. Giving rise to a considerable rally in both GBP and the Euro. If this proves to be the case then Cable could see 1.9960 and the Euro could be on song well above 1.3500 once again.


Cable: Update

Heavy downward pressure on Cable’s ability to record a high over the last 2 hours or so, may now be pointing to a low of 1.9830 by 12:30. Any breach of the 1.9820 (as above) will certainly see cable wave goodbye and head south.




Cable: Update

A lacklustre morning session has failed to lift cable. Touching 1.9840 in slow trade. Further downward pressure now seems to be the way forward, with more gusto and greater momentum. Sub 1.9800 levels seen from 1.9850..


Euro: Update

The euro has seen some demand but has failed to impress. Buyers queued from the 1.3455 area are beginning to evaporate and further buying from this level is fading. Pressure from a heavy GBP is weighing on the pair also. Levels sub 1.3400 are eyed.





25 May 2007 15:39: update

US home sales data has little impact on both pairs. A stalemate situation is developing as Euro sellers accumulate above 1.3470. Light trade also impacts the two as we head for the week’s close. Weakness points to ranging with some downside.



25 May 2007 16:37

Trading is now all but over for the week. Volume has died a death and orders are roughly equal on both sides on both pairs.

My positions are now neutral. Have a good weekend…

 

[Atilla]

Addition:

Cable: A quick re-test of the 1.9880 level is possible if a break below 1.9850 is not sustained.


Euro: Update.

With buyers of the Euro waiting in the wings from the 1.3455 levels and above, and a possible Cable re-test of the 1.9880 level, which will have a knock-on affect on the Euro pair and a self perpetuating situation could quickly develop. Giving rise to a considerable rally in both GBP and the Euro. If this proves to be the case then Cable could see 1.9960 and the Euro could be on song well above 1.3500 once again.


Cable: Update

Heavy downward pressure on Cable’s ability to record a high over the last 2 hours or so, may now be pointing to a low of 1.9830 by 12:30. Any breach of the 1.9820 (as above) will certainly see cable wave goodbye and head south.




Cable: Update

A lacklustre morning session has failed to lift cable. Touching 1.9840 in slow trade. Further downward pressure now seems to be the way forward, with more gusto and greater momentum. Sub 1.9800 levels seen from 1.9850..


Euro: Update

The euro has seen some demand but has failed to impress. Buyers queued from the 1.3455 area are beginning to evaporate and further buying from this level is fading. Pressure from a heavy GBP is weighing on the pair also. Levels sub 1.3400 are eyed.





25 May 2007 15:39: update

US home sales data has little impact on both pairs. A stalemate situation is developing as Euro sellers accumulate above 1.3470. Light trade also impacts the two as we head for the week’s close. Weakness points to ranging with some downside.



25 May 2007 16:37

Trading is now all but over for the week. Volume has died a death and orders are roughly equal on both sides on both pairs.

My positions are now neutral. Have a good weekend…

Enjoyed the update PTF very useful.

1.9850 held.

Otherwise it was like watching paint dry. Have been reading the entries but nothing to get excited about.

Anyone up for the DOW? I think it may head due south to 13400 by close of today.

My summary is will fed now look to raise rates or reduce them?

Remember stagflation - mixed bag of conflicting signals. Fed will do nothing but ride out the waves. Good news is global demand is strong so hopefuly should help US out of it's economic doldrum.

Impact on sterling ... Neutral imo. 1.98 is the new medium between 1.99 - 1.97. Should keep us entertained through the summer period.

Have a great weekend everyone.