FX Trading May 14 - 18

[jacinto]

the imminent news kept me out of the short!!
shouldnt complain, it would have been a random luck success it went down. (hindsight bias)

however, it seems to be holding 9770 support (assuming I read it correctly. 9770 has held for 3 days, and was formed early-April.)

may stay out until US-session starts.

think you're right. for me support is more like a zone around 50-70 then 30-40.

like you, the news kept me from shorting again. hindsight...lovely hindsight.

on the otherhand, this is what i get from my news provider

BULLET: CABLE: Extended down to the base of the reported at..
CABLE: Extended down to the base of the reported support area at
$1.9765, with rate currently holding back around $1.9772, and seeming to
find difficulty on making any significant recovery, one trader says.
Stops are reported in place below $1.9760 and could be providing a
tempting target, a trigger could run straight into profit take buyers
placed ahead of $1.9750, the trader adds, and possibly see a bounce from
there.

 

[fibonelli]

expecting a test of Fib 78.6% @ 1.9708, possibly later today

 

[Offshore Trader]

Short on breakout strategy at 87 and long EUR/JPY at 163.00. Stop on cable now at b/e.

 

[a_gnome]

think you're right. for me support is more like a zone around 50-70 then 30-40.

like you, the news kept me from shorting again. hindsight...lovely hindsight.

on the otherhand, this is what i get from my news provider

BULLET: CABLE: Extended down to the base of the reported at..
CABLE: Extended down to the base of the reported support area at
$1.9765, with rate currently holding back around $1.9772, and seeming to
find difficulty on making any significant recovery, one trader says.
Stops are reported in place below $1.9760 and could be providing a
tempting target, a trigger could run straight into profit take buyers
placed ahead of $1.9750, the trader adds, and possibly see a bounce from
there.

For my 2p's worth it's still in this descending channel and currently bouncing off the bottom of it. It makes it difficult to take shorts though you know it has to break out at some point.

 

[jacinto]

For my 2p's worth it's still in this descending channel and currently bouncing off the bottom of it. It makes it difficult to take shorts though you know it has to break out at some point.

agree AG, temptation to trade it up to the RN is strong, also considering the market will most likely dry up between now and Bern1kr speach and US news.

anyway, will have to wait. missed a nice long on euryen early for being sucked to cable.
Edit: euryen may be giving a nice pullback entry at 97-00 and a tight stop at the close of the 60 min bar
Edit 2: guess not.
hope you have a good trading day today
j

 

[dc2000]

time is pushing on cable will have to move soon I would pre fer to be in a long position prior to the US open

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

time is pushing on cable will have to move soon I would pre fer to be in a long position prior to the US open

That's a relief, because I've gone long from 750, hoping for 780 (but with digit poised ready to get out quickly if it starts to go the wrong way!).

 

[rav700]

So Lets have a look at the pairs today:
GBP\USD---Very little movement , What are we expecting tommrow well

9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.8% 3.1% ( Lower expectations)
9:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9% ( No Changes)
9:30am GBP RPI y/y 4.6% 4.8% ( Lower expectations)

So What we should have is a dip down at present to the 760 region on the news if this is the case.....

Now
CrapBhuddist----Is Going Long and expecting to find the bottom at 760 and long from there onwards..
Dc2000--- Is Still short and expecting 680

My Trading Feeling is as I said on sunday....

Travel to 842 and the reverse down so far this has been correct but my reversal is only till 750...

What would be the safest trade IMHO Wait for the news and I am just expecting a fall...straight down to 750 by 12:00 so I guess it will stall there till the us news comes out and then either a bounce back up or continuation to meet DC2000's expected 680.

I am proud of this one......I think I am getting back into cable at last

I am out of this trade with +53 for now will re-enter...when the time is right


Happy Trading
Rav

 

[rav700]

So My total pips for this week so far is 91......
I have also closed my euro trade for which I was short on @ 42 for 6 pips.....

Lessons learnt in three days.....(Never trade the AUS\USD Pair.....as I dont have the skills or common sense to trade it...been burnt quite a couple of times.....

What is next....I wanted to go long at 50 on cable but missed the opportunity...

I will have to just wait for the next possible trade after 1:30 now.....
Still looking at the yen and want to short it if I do get an opportunity......
Also had a short on the gbp\jpy pair but then.....Came out very quickly as my confidence was very low on the trade....

Also another lesson is :
Before you press the magic button to make your break your day...Give it 2 mins of thought and rate the trade as :
A very good
B I think it should be okay
C I need some pips....

If C comes into my head I aint gonna trade it anymore....

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

That's a relief, because I've gone long from 750, hoping for 780 (but with digit poised ready to get out quickly if it starts to go the wrong way!).

Moved stop to b/e, so will now forget about it until cable is back up at $2. Let's hope a flying pig doesn't break my computer in the meantime.

 

[jacinto]

Let's hope a flying pig doesn't break my computer in the meantime.

this has got to be the phrase of the month. ROFLMAO

 

[rav700]

Moved stop to b/e, so will now forget about it until cable is back up at $2. Let's hope a flying pig doesn't break my computer in the meantime.

Hi phil,

I guess you are looking for some nice straight trendy moves..unfortunately....this is what kept me out of cable for quite a bit of time....I used to scalp it full time...
But last month just after the 750 level things were just not going right for me so I decided to take a break.....

Best of luck with you trading....

 

[rav700]

1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.5% 0.6%
1:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
1:30pm USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 9.0 3.8

Out in 3 mins....
I am looking at the usd\jpy as a break of the 55 level could lead to a nice 35 pips....
Expecting 121 but on the other hand .....it could go down to 120.04 so either way will take a position after the news is out
Also
Tic data is out at 2:00 dont forget

2:00pm USD Long Term TIC Flows 72.0B 58.1B Very important

 

[Offshore Trader]

Short on breakout strategy at 87 and long EUR/JPY at 163.00. Stop on cable now at b/e.

Out at breakeven on cable, stop at breakeven on EUR/JPY

Good call, those of you who went long around 50 on cable

 

[thecurrencydealer]

fibre resistance should be around 3570/80 for now
cable resis still at 9815 if contained.

This last spike of cable should pave wave for another strong down leg to finish the move
for the month .... me think & wish

 

[trendie]

bagged 24 pips on a cable-15-min short.

short at 1.9780 and out at 1.9756. (should have been 25, but price jumped as I hit the button. still pining for the missed short before news.)

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

That's a relief, because I've gone long from 750, hoping for 780 (but with digit poised ready to get out quickly if it starts to go the wrong way!).

Back to the screen after two hours, to find trade had worked out perfectly. If only it could always be like that.

 

[dc2000]

now long on cable 755 and short on Dow 371 looking for 200pips cable and 100 points on Dow

 

[trendie]

now long on cable 755 and short on Dow 371 looking for 200pips cable and 100 points on Dow

about a hundred pips in a matter of a couple of hours!
I target 200 per week!

anyway, today seems to be a key reversal day. ( yesterday was a dopwn day. today has taken out yesterdays low and may close above yesterdays close.)

I am always a bit wary of how a news-day may affect dir3ection and signals.
(certainly sends my indicators awry)

EDIT: reversal now says "key reversal"

 

[jacinto]

now long on cable 755 and short on Dow 371 looking for 200pips cable and 100 points on Dow

hat off, excellent call