laduguie
(is that a french name ? )
had a look at your chart.
the odds do seem to favour a down move as you suggest.
but when I look closely at the ftse cash charts, I see a market rising
strongly from support and then fading back to almost the
top of the originating surge.Then finding surging support again.
Then fading again etc.
whoever is providing that support may give up of course but
I am also keeping my good eye on the upside.
4030 (on the cash) looks key in all this ?
(is that a french name ? )
had a look at your chart.
the odds do seem to favour a down move as you suggest.
but when I look closely at the ftse cash charts, I see a market rising
strongly from support and then fading back to almost the
top of the originating surge.Then finding surging support again.
Then fading again etc.
whoever is providing that support may give up of course but
I am also keeping my good eye on the upside.
4030 (on the cash) looks key in all this ?
Last edited:
Laduguie,
I had this down as a simple a-b-c from 3952 finishing at 4136. Then a series of 1-2's , a third wave and are currently in wave 4 up (which has retraced to 4080 wich is 0.5 of the 4127 to 4032 third wave move). Waiting for a 5-4-5 sequence to finish the sequence.
But I'm cautious at the moment. As always, it's good to remind yourself of alternatives.
I had this down as a simple a-b-c from 3952 finishing at 4136. Then a series of 1-2's , a third wave and are currently in wave 4 up (which has retraced to 4080 wich is 0.5 of the 4127 to 4032 third wave move). Waiting for a 5-4-5 sequence to finish the sequence.
But I'm cautious at the moment. As always, it's good to remind yourself of alternatives.
reactor
while i except that you will get plenty of "signals" i question the conclusion of that statement. Overtrading is a cardinal sin. It only guarantees spread costs and commissions if appropriate. Taking your 16 trades that equates, using Deal4Free's 3 point spread, as a cost of 48 points before you can make a profit. You are presenting yourself as a model spreadbetting client. Lots of spread profits for the SB company. As Piper says in his book "The Way to trade"- Trade selectively (only pick the best opportunities which he cites as low risk opportunities)
while i except that you will get plenty of "signals" i question the conclusion of that statement. Overtrading is a cardinal sin. It only guarantees spread costs and commissions if appropriate. Taking your 16 trades that equates, using Deal4Free's 3 point spread, as a cost of 48 points before you can make a profit. You are presenting yourself as a model spreadbetting client. Lots of spread profits for the SB company. As Piper says in his book "The Way to trade"- Trade selectively (only pick the best opportunities which he cites as low risk opportunities)
Reactor
Just noticed your win/loss ratio. Again, you appear to committing another cardinal sin of doing the oppositie of Run profits, cut losses aggressively. The aim of this game is SURVIVAL. Losing 5 times your profits will only guarantee your early demise.
I would urge that you stop trading now and study money management in depth. As Stanley Kroll has stated " a sound strategy and viable tactics are just as important to overall success as a good technical or charting technique."
Just noticed your win/loss ratio. Again, you appear to committing another cardinal sin of doing the oppositie of Run profits, cut losses aggressively. The aim of this game is SURVIVAL. Losing 5 times your profits will only guarantee your early demise.
I would urge that you stop trading now and study money management in depth. As Stanley Kroll has stated " a sound strategy and viable tactics are just as important to overall success as a good technical or charting technique."
mully
good stuff but as I understand it scalping is as much instinct
as anything else. When you are 'hot' you make buckets of dosh.
you have to move so fast you dont have time for
what is 3% of my capital; what is risk/reward etc
when you see it move you'd better get it . 2/3 pts can be very good news.
good stuff but as I understand it scalping is as much instinct
as anything else. When you are 'hot' you make buckets of dosh.
you have to move so fast you dont have time for
what is 3% of my capital; what is risk/reward etc
when you see it move you'd better get it . 2/3 pts can be very good news.
Reactor, bear with me, this is a meditation posting as well in its way.
it's not so much the losses as the number of trades that made me wince. I really admire your honesty and guts in posting the details. But isn't 16 trades the domain of the pro scalper, using scalping software with low commissions?
Interestingly, if you read Malcolm Robinson, when he came back to trading after losing £60,000 in his first year, £500 of loss in one day was the limit set by the institution that backed him. He was doing about 20 round trips a day, but in the pits paying commission of 25p per contract. He lost £500 for the first 10 days second time around. It's a hard game.
I was struggling yesterday, same as most days, (hesitating over taking the big swings, getting the direction right and watching it rather than trading it, fiddling with stops etc etc), was down, and did to a lesser extent what you did. But I only made 3 trades. The last two put me in profit, but my notes read "totally silly and reckless scalping". The fact that it paid off makes me more dangerous in future. It was based on no set up or system, and relied on some feel for price that I have, but have not developed enough to trade off. In other words, I have to be mechanical, then intuitive, not try to mix the two.
In fact yesterday (along with some advice from Bonsai) convinced me that I'm going to close my futures account, and go back to spread betting. I've been trading futures for about 3 months, and my account is about 2% down. I'm not exactly taking a beating, but I'm not making money, and because I don't enjoy it much, I can't see me making any in the near future.
What I regret are not the stupid trades and losses, but the times that I've had a low-risk set up and not taken it, and the times I've done that and been stopped out. If I'd worked even half of them properly, I'd be way in front now. (I've just done it again, sold the false breakout at 4072, pissed about and been stopped out. Doesn't look good enough to get back in now either!)
I think Liffe is not for me. It encourages me to be too short term and grab at small profits, which is not totally irrational, because they love to take them back from you. FTSE on Liffe, home of the dodgy spike. Bottom line seems to be I've not got the guts/pockets/experience to use the stops I need to use.
I took a small CMC account back from 40% down into profitability. Think I'll have a more serioius go at it with £5-10 per point. If the standard advice is to halve your trading size, it's time for me to take it. On Liffe I can't.
Good luck, you probably know all this anyway. I think you'll probably make it. At least you've got the balls to hit the button!
edit: this comes over as real know it all preaching. Sorry for that, everyone must use their own approach. If you want to scalp all day, that's your business. Have to take the losses quick though.
it's not so much the losses as the number of trades that made me wince. I really admire your honesty and guts in posting the details. But isn't 16 trades the domain of the pro scalper, using scalping software with low commissions?
Interestingly, if you read Malcolm Robinson, when he came back to trading after losing £60,000 in his first year, £500 of loss in one day was the limit set by the institution that backed him. He was doing about 20 round trips a day, but in the pits paying commission of 25p per contract. He lost £500 for the first 10 days second time around. It's a hard game.
I was struggling yesterday, same as most days, (hesitating over taking the big swings, getting the direction right and watching it rather than trading it, fiddling with stops etc etc), was down, and did to a lesser extent what you did. But I only made 3 trades. The last two put me in profit, but my notes read "totally silly and reckless scalping". The fact that it paid off makes me more dangerous in future. It was based on no set up or system, and relied on some feel for price that I have, but have not developed enough to trade off. In other words, I have to be mechanical, then intuitive, not try to mix the two.
In fact yesterday (along with some advice from Bonsai) convinced me that I'm going to close my futures account, and go back to spread betting. I've been trading futures for about 3 months, and my account is about 2% down. I'm not exactly taking a beating, but I'm not making money, and because I don't enjoy it much, I can't see me making any in the near future.
What I regret are not the stupid trades and losses, but the times that I've had a low-risk set up and not taken it, and the times I've done that and been stopped out. If I'd worked even half of them properly, I'd be way in front now. (I've just done it again, sold the false breakout at 4072, pissed about and been stopped out. Doesn't look good enough to get back in now either!)
I think Liffe is not for me. It encourages me to be too short term and grab at small profits, which is not totally irrational, because they love to take them back from you. FTSE on Liffe, home of the dodgy spike. Bottom line seems to be I've not got the guts/pockets/experience to use the stops I need to use.
I took a small CMC account back from 40% down into profitability. Think I'll have a more serioius go at it with £5-10 per point. If the standard advice is to halve your trading size, it's time for me to take it. On Liffe I can't.
Good luck, you probably know all this anyway. I think you'll probably make it. At least you've got the balls to hit the button!
edit: this comes over as real know it all preaching. Sorry for that, everyone must use their own approach. If you want to scalp all day, that's your business. Have to take the losses quick though.
Last edited:
reactor
Member
- Messages
- 82
- Likes
- 1
mully
thanks for your reply. i recognise that it is a discipline problem more than anything else. instinctively i know what i should do, i've just got to get myself into the frame of mind where i do it automatically, rather than thinking it over.
ghost dog
nice post. it's easy to look back at your charts at the end of the day and see all the trades that would have made you money, but indicators are indicators at the end of the day, and you still have to think about pulling the trigger, especially if you're aiming to catch a big move which is the most difficult part.
analysing my trades, the winning scalps i can't even remember doing. the double figure losses however i do remember as i was allowing for play (and hoping) and a lot of thought went into pulling the trigger on entry and exit. thinking and greed has been my enemy so far! i guess it's that same old american phrase: 'there's no free lunch.'
i believe in working hard to get my money and this is probably why scalping has been more successful than momentum trading. i can't be working hard when momentum trading as i have time to think!
thanks for your reply. i recognise that it is a discipline problem more than anything else. instinctively i know what i should do, i've just got to get myself into the frame of mind where i do it automatically, rather than thinking it over.
ghost dog
nice post. it's easy to look back at your charts at the end of the day and see all the trades that would have made you money, but indicators are indicators at the end of the day, and you still have to think about pulling the trigger, especially if you're aiming to catch a big move which is the most difficult part.
analysing my trades, the winning scalps i can't even remember doing. the double figure losses however i do remember as i was allowing for play (and hoping) and a lot of thought went into pulling the trigger on entry and exit. thinking and greed has been my enemy so far! i guess it's that same old american phrase: 'there's no free lunch.'
i believe in working hard to get my money and this is probably why scalping has been more successful than momentum trading. i can't be working hard when momentum trading as i have time to think!
very good posts, imo Reactor and Ghost Dog.
I may be wrong but I suspect just posting some of the issues
which you have both touched on can play a major part in
finding the solution.
People who read this thread and dont post have the same
problems but find it too difficult to come out into the open
about it.
Posting can be the first step to acknowledging there is a
problem and things have to change.
Until then they are probably in denial.
When they do, they find they are not alone ?
Reminds me of Elders book about acoholics.
The first step and biggest step is really acknowledging the
problem ?
Hi, I'm Bonsai, a recovering alcoholic.
I may be wrong but I suspect just posting some of the issues
which you have both touched on can play a major part in
finding the solution.
People who read this thread and dont post have the same
problems but find it too difficult to come out into the open
about it.
Posting can be the first step to acknowledging there is a
problem and things have to change.
Until then they are probably in denial.
When they do, they find they are not alone ?
Reminds me of Elders book about acoholics.
The first step and biggest step is really acknowledging the
problem ?
Hi, I'm Bonsai, a recovering alcoholic.
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
hi reactor,
imho can't aim for the big move, only try to ride it when it comes along. For me that's more about position adding and exit strategy (doesn't strategy sound grand!!) and the bit that I get more wrong than the entry.
bonsai - watching the golf earlier but can't see the black crows - they must have flown off.
good trading
jon
imho can't aim for the big move, only try to ride it when it comes along. For me that's more about position adding and exit strategy (doesn't strategy sound grand!!) and the bit that I get more wrong than the entry.
bonsai - watching the golf earlier but can't see the black crows - they must have flown off.
good trading
jon