FTSE 100 Intraday trading - August 2003

[JeanM]

Bonsai

I think you have said before that you watch the cash chart but trade the futures. When you said you closed your trade yesterday at 5.25 was this a futures and if so which one? Sorry if youv'e been asked this before but why do you trade the futures and not the daily cash, and which futures do you trade?
Thanks.

Jean

 

[bonsai]

Hi jean
the trade was with an sb rolling cash

basically you cant trade the cash, only a derivative of some sort.

but I trade both rolling 'cash' and futures with sb's
usually the current futures until we get close to expiry.

does that help ?

 

[barjon]

b****r, thought 214 would hold and in and out for a quick
- 7. Miffed at missing earlier rise and too impatient to wait for
a proper signal. Put dunces cap on - must do better.

(and now it rises!!)

 

[Fluke]

Bonsai
Could we be looking at testing the fibbs at approx 4137.just an observation.
what do you think.

 

[bonsai]

until it breaks 4200 I can only repeat what I said in post 43002

I cant forecast the future (thank god).

anything is possible and the market will go where it needs to go
regardless of Mr fib or Mr gann or anyone else.

not very helpful , I know but
'one day at a time,sweet jesus,one day at a time'.
or 'sufficient unto the day ........'

 

[bonsai]

well, 4200 has gone .
missed a signal at 4210 which would have been nice.
didnt pull the trigger - cardinal sin !

is there room in the club for one more ?

 

[bonsai]

ftse now available at 4214/4218

 

[bonsai]

yesterdays shape looks a lot like abc dont you think ?
and with a false break below 200 the bullish pattern seems to still be intact.

however there do seem to be a lot of spike tops in the last 10 days.
so the bears seem to be trying to force that dark cloud cover
I mentioned some time ago.

 

[barjon]

bonsai

don't know about the waves but there's a lot of bears massing
on the beach. A lot of selling volume leaps in the moment there's
weakness over the pond leading to exaggerated and fast
downward moves. Bulls defences still holding tho'

Interesting that AVZ didn't believe the down move yesterday
staying positive throughout (except for one short dip).

good trading

jon

 

[bonsai]

people are often unsure where to place their stops? and I have
always said that the market will tell you where to place them ?

well today we have a good clear cut situation.
yesterdays low and this mornings high.
nothing else. You may want a 10pt stop but the market doesnt
know that and doesnt give a damn.
If you cant afford to trade against market stops, dont be
surprised when you get stopped out !

 

[Lambchops]

That is quite a loss if you are going long at the current price.

 

[bonsai]

only if you are impatient ?

edit
there is not much I can promise about market trading.
but I promise you, the 'secret' if there is one is in only taking
LOW RISK opportunities.

 

[SUNSEEKER]

Bonsai

I am sitting here doing some work on the FTSE cash. I just noticed on the hourly that the last major retracement from the 28th july lasted 63 hours. The current retracement has also last 63 hours. you could put a case that a move above 4229 could initiate a new move higher towards the 4300. This unfortunately goes against the overall call of a top yesterday in the Dow.

For what its worth, as they say

 

[barjon]

bonsai

happy with market stops when in with a good (sic) entry but
for more chancy ones there's something to be said for running
with a close stop or covering immediately it doesn't go in the
direction you're looking for. I know, I know - shouldn't make
chancy entries!!! On the other hand all entries are chancy -
some are just more chancy than others!

jon

 

[bonsai]

thx sunseeker
lol
sounds like the market is doing its job well and
making it all ambiguous. Which is of course exactly what
the market is meant to do.

 

[hungrybear]

There does seem to be some upside potential based on wave count.

all the action since 19th Aug looks corrective, so the most likely scenario is an abc-x-abc. We're currently starting the c-wave of the X, so the upside is probably to about 4260 cash. This would correlate with the usual bullish action at wallst going into their holiday, then a decent drop into the second week of Sept. That would complete the abc-x-abc.

If this is right, there will then be a rally to new highs for the year going into Sept option expiry at least.

Short-term looks like Ftse going gap filling.

 

[hungrybear]

Sunseaker - I'm going against the trend here as I think there's more upside potential for the Dow, before dropping next week. This is based on my wave count analysis for both the Ftse and the Dow.

Your analysis does make me a bit uncomfortable as you're so much more experienced than me and I usually follow your analysis.

 

[bonsai]

anyone follow BT ?
looks like it might be trying to bottom out ?

 

[SUNSEEKER]

hungry, I see the same as you are and with month-end and the 401K money etc, i see the potential, but you know....you got to follow your own analysis, and that is what the pattern is telling me...

we are coming out of a circle right here.

 

[bonsai]

once again ftse has filled its gap.
anyone keeping count of ratio between gap fill and continuation ?

would have thought it was about 20 to 1 in favour of gap fill .

but very nice start to the morning. now looking for another possible higher low on macd.
(bit muted so far)