FTSE 100 Intraday trading - August 2003

[frugi]

Indeedy and a lovely 4 peak neg div on the 30 min RSI which has now broken its uptrend. Swing short from 4165, stop 4190. 38% rtr target 4126 by close tomorrow. Possibly.

 

[bonsai]

why 4190 ?
cant relate that to anything.

 

[frugi]

It is a mildly arbitrary figure I admit, but just above the highest high of the last month or so (ie. 4184 on 28/7) incl. d4f spread. Just want to give it wiggle room really.

 

[bonsai]

Ok, I'm with you but watch out for 4219 as the previous high.

 

[bonsai]

don't know about everyone else but I found it quite difficult today.
only had one trade and that was something of a flyer
as we had a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

but I even had to close that for peanuts as the macd was oscillating.

 

[mully]

The FTSE AllShare closed at a new high for the year at 2055.69. Intra-day the index surpassed the intra-day high in June of 2056.2.

How does this help you all. Is this the peak in the trading range since June 18th and therefore should be faded, or signs of the long awaited break to the upside (Wave 5 for the EW watchers)

 

[bonsai]

Clearly trying to push up into higher ground but nobody
really prepared to buy the market without the Dow initiating
the move.
So we have to wait some more. But it wont take much to
attack 4219.

 

[Lambchops]

Very frustrating day yesterday. Off the computer most of the morning because of thunderstorms. Lost around 10 points in the afternoon and went to see fireworks at Whitby Regatta at night. The fog rolled in as the fireworks started and thousands of people watched patiently but could only listen to the fireworks. Hope its better today - Long @ 74

 

[hungrybear]

Short at 75

Ftse's on it's top BB and the 1 hr stochastics are on the ceiling. Could be some more upside, but likely to be limited.

 

[Lambchops]

Out @ 75 +1.

 

[mully]

Have we seen a weak 'goat' trade rejecting the old high at 4183

 

[jonnyy40]

Like the priest said when he heard 69 referred to in a confession 'I can't make head nor tail of it'.

 

[bonsai]

dont have a feed this morning so relying on the internet pro tem.

so not sure about any sort of 'goat'
wasn't expecting one.
and it's not apparent that a 'lot' of traders are selling off.

but a retest of this mornings high might be interesting ?

 

[Lambchops]

Bonsai - Silly question for you. Are you more profitable in winter or summer? I ask this because there seems to be a lot of drifting markets without volume at the moment and less trends to go with.

 

[bonsai]

hmm
Hadn't thought of trading in those terms.

Initial reaction is I probably get a better yield when there arent
too many distractions.
Like tennis, fishing, sailing etc etc.
So I suspect the non summer months are best for me.

Does the market trend better ?
I doubt it. All part of swings and roundabouts I should think.

And there are enough 'loonies' trading moon cycles, planet
conjunctions, fibonacci days,sine wave phases etc etc to
make a 'Market for all Seasons' ?

 

[bonsai]

In case you dont have it, the A/D line went positive with this
little spurt and has been rising since before 10.

edit
and for lovers of macd, you will notice we have had another higher low.
and this time it was a bounce up off zero !

 

[Mr Peter]

How to judge your model - advice please

Please excuse my intrusion but i am seeking advice on how to judge if my model of the FTSE-100 is good enough for trading.

The model indicates whether the index is going ot finish above or below the previous close and roughly where the close will be. It seems to get these directional predictions right about 65% of the time and i am using the binary bets on IG index to make small profits (and losses).

Could someone please comment if this is a good system - many thanks

 

[bonsai]

Peter
Sorry, but there is far too little information for me to be able to
comment one way or the other.

but '65% of the time for small profits' must make the spread
very important ?

 

[Mr Peter]

Agreed - all i meant was that the model's predicition as to whether the market is going to finish up or down is 65% correct.

As for profits they are small because the initial investments are small

 

[hungrybear]

Maybe we should all post our predictions with explanations and see how they vary