Forex Day Trader's Thread

intresting..my only question is why? what was he trying to achieve pushing oil that high, hoping to hit buy stops perhaps
 
It's the same story as every other stop run, but this guy didn't have permission to do it ;)
 
tripleogstar said:
Singh I am sorry but you are seriously the most dumbest and ridiclous person I have come across. You actually have to be THE most ignorant person to believe 99% of fundamentals is priced in, well explain this to me, duumb ass, why didn't markets price in a 467,000 drop in payrolls in monday. why wait till friday. if someone took the fundamental view that payrolls will be bad, they will position themselves accordingly. If 99% is priced in at any given time, no hedge fund or prop desk would bother trying to trade fundamentally. you graduated from a red brick university and have s**t for brains, how can one say thatt the effect fiscal and monetary policy have on markets is based on historical events, that is by far the dumbest thing ive heard. If interest rates go up, there is a solid ECONOMIC reason for it, money flows from once currency to another to earn the higher yield, hence the reason why FX traders look at monetary policy closely. NOT because of how it has reacted to fiscal and monetary policy in the past. And you making 50k a month, who are you kidding. your using QUICK CHARTS on IG Index to do your technical analysis, implying your not even placing 2 trades a month since that is what you need to use the Advanced Charting package, which your clearly not using and any person with half a brain would use the advanced package.
Click to expand...

Oh dear Trip...lol....you gonna get it now...you just took a swing at the wrong guy....man what is this nonesense name calling like a little girl......I graduated 10 years ago with a first class honours degree from a red brick university...its clear that I'm certainly not a dumb ass. It's quite clear that from this ambigious pitbull like response from you that you may well be that dumb ass that really has no real idea what the hell your talking about ...man you talk and claim that you use fundamentals as an element in you trading descisions when you really have no real educated grasp on fundamentals just like the majority of us retail traders.....Trip you are completely missing the point with this rant.

My view on the world markets is that a very very very high percentage of the fundamentals are priced in at any given time...lets call it 95 to 99 percent just for numbers sake...nobody precisely knows what percentage is priced in, but it is widely accepted that fair value representation, a price which precisely reflects a balance of supply and demand of any given asset at any given time....is already priced into the market by partisipants, governed by UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CRITERIA at any given time....its when a VARIATION in the underlying fundamental data is released to market partisipants that the technicians adjust their positions in all asset classes in the attempt to increase and preserve a net value for that give time frame.

Take a step back....think about this carefully Trip.....the average market price movements (RANGE) on a daily to weekly basis ranges from under 1% to 3% maybe 5% when in the event of geopolitical events, this is because 90 plus percent (which i'll call a very very very high percentage) is already priced in by market partisipants/stake holders based on historical and forecasted data modelling.

Market fundamentals or market fundamental data does not on the whole change 30-40 percent on a daily or weekly basis, so tell me how the hell are you using this to day trade or short term trade?...this leads me to conclude that you are not using fundamentals to day trade, you've just convinced yourself that you are which is called believing your own bull!....here's what you do...you use BASIC Technical and Cyclical analysis coupled with a BASIC novice understanding of MacroEconomics to aid you in you short term trading....nothing more or nothing less...so don't pretend that you know more than you know.

You come across as if you know what you're talking about..lol...Trip uses fundamentals to day trade..lol... my ass you do....and the worst part of it for you is that you've probably convinced yourself of this....this is your ego at work pall...You should save your wide boy economic chatter for the pub where most have no idea what your talking about anyway.....you'll impress them, but not hear pall!...

Lets make this clear, as it is pretty much common sense....THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS are on the whole priced in....it is the VARIATIONS in the fundamental data that technicians work by adjusting concentration of positions.

I had a chat with both of my brothers that are traders (my elsdest brother has been trading for 16 years for the big banks) with major banks about Trip's fundamental day trading ...and they and had to hang up since they couldn't stop laughing.

trip...you say that you make alot of money.....You have no idea what alot of money is. You sit there telling us all you made 1280 quid on a particular trade blah blah blah...why do you do this...probably because its just a fantasy of yours.

Now here's a little about me....2 years after I Graduated...thats 8 years ago, at the tender age of 23 I co-founded an electronic component distribution house / brokerage, which now employs 14 semiconductor brokers spread across 6 countries strategically located ofcourse. We have amassed an inventory of electronic components, active and passive, from memory commodity parts, programmable logic, capacitors to hard to find obsolete semiconductors by liquidating manufacturers and contract manufacturers excess inventory, which we sell to various Contract Electronic Manufacturers, Military, Medical and Consumers Contract Manufacturers as and when they demand product throughout the world.....here's the fundamental punchline Trip....If I were able to sell every single component/device that I have in stock at precisely this moment in time at current market pricing, my inventory would convert into US$90 Million...governed by the current market price....now since the electronic component market place is no where as liquid to allow me to achieve full market value for my inventory instantaneously, we drip feed the market our ever growing stock of 1.7 billion parts as and when demanded by manufacturers (we cash in on un-forseen production line downs)...resulting in maximum possible price value per transaction....now here's where the fundamentals come into play.....I have bids on my entire inventory from various independent distributors/brokers that we do regular business with when brokering product to buy all of my inventory in a one shot transaction paying 5 cents on the dollar of its current market value...that equated to US$4.5 Million in cash money....now you gotta remember that this inventory has a zero implied cost for us over the time that we have accumilated it since we have been generating revenue from selling it over the years as and when demanded by our customers...this is what FUNDAMENTALLY motivates us as an electronic components commodity grey market partisipant to not dump the entire inventory at 5 cents on the dollar as its value over time is far greater.....now this is what I call real fundamentals!!!!!...we are known as the necessary evil to balance supply and demand..we cash in when the pain is the greatest....we are marginal traders, and thats why we use margin and leverage to generate profit by antisipating shortages and gluts in not only my electronics business but in trading in general....this may be a whole new business or economics lesson for you Trip!


Get it mate....you are not speaking to a pennyless dummy....i've been around the block, I put short sighted ego driven chaps like you in your place all day long for a living..... Its like taking candy from a child!...you asked for it pal...

You gotta remember how this started, I asked you a question about what Fundamentals you look at, you then answered, I voiced my opinion, and then you went into a name calling girlie rant...well there you go....you have my qualified response!
 
good afternoon lads, Nice week, had to change a few time for direction because the stubborn sideways markets..

i am going to my garden and enjoy the sun.
 
ssing im sorry but the majority of your postings are total garbage..that charts you post are always just plain wrong regarding your analsys or your stupid trend lines.
 
there are tons of people on this board who dont use charts, my friend arabianights barely knows what a chart is!

i think what your having trouble understanding mr ssing is that its not just about the fundamentals..its how people react to them. news IS what moves the market. do you get monster rallys and sell offs because the stochastic crossed up?

my opinion on Thursday was that the numbers would be worse than they were...even when the technical s were showing bullish signs i remained short and trippled my position because of my opinion based purely on fundamentals, and it paid out
 
the are different ways to use for trading, some people actually may look how their rabit ears are standing.., the basis is all the same, cut your losses short, refocus... , cut your losses, refocus..
and let your profit run..

enjoy
 
oh and if all fundamentals are priced in..whos to say you cant get in on that pricing in when it happens?

even tho your theory is total bs
 
Genics said:
how can you see fundamentals are already priced in? stuff that hasn't even happened yet priced in? was the economic collapse of 2008 priced in already?
Click to expand...

In my opinion the economic collapse in 2008 was expected technically and fundamentally speaking...there are grass roots political issues and huge imbalances still as a result that have been swept under the carpet for centuries forget the last few decades....its happened before and it will happen again....and again. Fundametally speaking and again IMO, the more that wealth, technology and resources are re-distributed from western economies to eastern economies....the more that the playing field is levelled, the more bubbles and crashes we'll see during this process which will probably take another centuary to play out.

IMO...Fundamentals are a grass roots view point...an elementary based study of historical data points... viewpoint encompassing... analysing historically quantifiable yard stick used to discover / forecast which way an asset is likely to trend....which is partially (majority is priced in), but not completely reflected in futures contract pricing....AT ANY GIVEN TIME

Thats how and why the majority of the UNDERLYING grass roots FUNDAMENTALS are priced into a live price as fair value....to get a fundamental view you have to look into the past on an elementary level which requires advanced math/ significance testing....and by studying and mathematically modelling the past data coupled with other live dynamic metrics analysts attempt to forecast EXPECTED data to be released at given time in the future....>>>ultimately seeking to identify an extrapolated trend to be exploited.

In a highly liquid market place....there is little money left on the table...forecasted data and actual released data is so quickly absorbed into the market place it is actually SHOCKINGLY quick....and this is why for short term trading Technical Analysis is what counts as it helps live market partisipants model greed and fear even though the underlying mid to long term fundamentals may suggest something else...thats why they say that if your an investor..a buy and hold kinda guy, fundamentals are critical and a detailed study of the asset is a must....but short term traders need not worry too much about whats going to happen 3 months to 5 years down the line as they wont be and dont intend to be exposed for such a long period of time...short term traders take it one or two days and maybe a week at a time...

Genics....just for a moment...remove that comment I made from your head about not getting out of bed for less than £50k/ month... even though its completely true and I don't have to prove jack to you or anyone for that matter...soon I think you'll understand my opinions and point of view in the subject of TA versus FA even though you may not agree...becuase thats what they are..their my experiences and opinions...you suggesting that you think that I don't actually trade because I don't have the money to trade made me chuckle as I soon realised that jealosy and envy got the better of you in making such a foundationless comment...its ok...I understand its only a human reaction to be envious...its amazing how talk of money brings the worst out in people....results in personal attacks.

With Trip...he was acting like the cocke of the house for a while telling me 'well done' in a patronising fashion...giving me advise when I didn't even ask for it on a subject he knows little about, he was telling me how I should apply fundamentally sophisticated moving averages before making a single trade..he compared his fundamental analysis to knowing a companies accounts in his head...lol....still I ignored it and played along and the moment I mentioned that I don't get out of bed for less that £50k/month whilst disagreeing with the amount of fundametal analytical work he claimed to cover in the time it takes me on a daily basis to draw lines on charts he switched off the subject in discussion accusing me of being a phony.... bloody marvelous chaps...bloody marvelous!...theres Trip telling us he made 1280 quid and then 680 quid in another post....then when I tell him that I don't gety out of bed for less than £50k/month with my line drawing basic technical analysis....he gets all hot under the collar and calls me a phony...jealousy is a disease...blood marvelous...lol...you know what they say about living in glass houses and then throwing stones!
 
SSINGH said:
In my opinion the economic collapse in 2008 was expected technically and fundamentally speaking...there are grass roots political issues and huge imbalances still as a result that have been swept under the carpet for centuries forget the last few decades....its happened before and it will happen again....and again. Fundametally speaking and again IMO, the more that wealth, technology and resources are re-distributed from western economies to eastern economies....the more that the playing field is levelled, the more bubbles and crashes we'll see during this process which will probably take another centuary to play out.

IMO...Fundamentals are a grass roots view point...an elementary based study of historical data points... viewpoint encompassing... analysing historically quantifiable yard stick used to discover / forecast which way an asset is likely to trend....which is partially (majority is priced in), but not completely reflected in futures contract pricing....AT ANY GIVEN TIME

Thats how and why the majority of the UNDERLYING grass roots FUNDAMENTALS are priced into a live price as fair value....to get a fundamental view you have to look into the past on an elementary level which requires advanced math/ significance testing....and by studying and mathematically modelling the past data coupled with other live dynamic metrics analysts attempt to forecast EXPECTED data to be released at given time in the future....>>>ultimately seeking to identify an extrapolated trend to be exploited.

In a highly liquid market place....there is little money left on the table...forecasted data and actual released data is so quickly absorbed into the market place it is actually SHOCKINGLY quick....and this is why for short term trading Technical Analysis is what counts as it helps live market partisipants model greed and fear even though the underlying mid to long term fundamentals may suggest something else...thats why they say that if your an investor..a buy and hold kinda guy, fundamentals are critical and a detailed study of the asset is a must....but short term traders need not worry too much about whats going to happen 3 months to 5 years down the line as they wont be and dont intend to be exposed for such a long period of time...short term traders take it one or two days and maybe a week at a time...

Genics....just for a moment...remove that comment I made from your head about not getting out of bed for less than £50k/ month... even though its completely true and I don't have to prove jack to you or anyone for that matter...soon I think you'll understand my opinions and point of view in the subject of TA versus FA even though you may not agree...becuase thats what they are..their my experiences and opinions...you suggesting that you think that I don't actually trade because I don't have the money to trade made me chuckle as I soon realised that jealosy and envy got the better of you in making such a foundationless comment...its ok...I understand its only a human reaction to be envious...its amazing how talk of money brings the worst out in people....results in personal attacks.

With Trip...he was acting like the cocke of the house for a while telling me 'well done' in a patronising fashion...giving me advise when I didn't even ask for it on a subject he knows little about, he was telling me how I should apply fundamentally sophisticated moving averages before making a single trade..he compared his fundamental analysis to knowing a companies accounts in his head...lol....still I ignored it and played along and the moment I mentioned that I don't get out of bed for less that £50k/month whilst disagreeing with the amount of fundametal analytical work he claimed to cover in the time it takes me on a daily basis to draw lines on charts he switched off the subject in discussion accusing me of being a phony.... bloody marvelous chaps...bloody marvelous!...theres Trip telling us he made 1280 quid and then 680 quid in another post....then when I tell him that I don't gety out of bed for less than £50k/month with my line drawing basic technical analysis....he gets all hot under the collar and calls me a phony...jealousy is a disease...blood marvelous...lol...you know what they say about living in glass houses and then throwing stones!
Click to expand...

Again you are proving how unintelligent you are. When are you going to get it through your head, the difference between fundamental and technical analysis. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IS NOT AN ANALYSIS OF PAST EVENTS.

'to get a fundamental view you have to look into the past on an elementary level which requires advanced math/ significance testing....and by studying and mathematically modelling the past data coupled with other live dynamic metrics analysts attempt to forecast EXPECTED data to be released at given time in the future....>>>ultimately seeking to identify an extrapolated trend to be exploited.'

That my friend is TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, no one looked at past data to figure out what the payrolls figure on thursday was going to be. People base that decision on what they think the state of the economy is, e.g looking at news published by companies on staff turnover etc looking at consumer spending. They are NOT looking at how markets have reacted previously to news flow. you said to me in an earlier thread that i need to look up what fundamental analysis means, i think you need to do that.

'he compared his fundamental analysis to knowing a companies accounts in his head...lol'

I think this is a ridiculous statement. your telling me that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know gross margins etc for a particular sector in your head. Funny how you seemed to know the FUNDAMENTALS of your imaginary electronics distributing company at the top of your head, or did you have to pull out the accounts. So if you can do it, why can't others. When i say knowing the fundamentals in your head, its things like knowing where eurzone, boe, fed rates are, what gilt spreads are doing, what OIS rates are. Those do not require an incredible IQ mate, maybe for you yea.
 
SSINGH said:
In my opinion the economic collapse in 2008 was expected technically and fundamentally speaking...there are grass roots political issues and huge imbalances still as a result that have been swept under the carpet for centuries forget the last few decades....its happened before and it will happen again....and again. Fundametally speaking and again IMO, the more that wealth, technology and resources are re-distributed from western economies to eastern economies....the more that the playing field is levelled, the more bubbles and crashes we'll see during this process which will probably take another centuary to play out.

IMO...Fundamentals are a grass roots view point...an elementary based study of historical data points... viewpoint encompassing... analysing historically quantifiable yard stick used to discover / forecast which way an asset is likely to trend....which is partially (majority is priced in), but not completely reflected in futures contract pricing....AT ANY GIVEN TIME

Thats how and why the majority of the UNDERLYING grass roots FUNDAMENTALS are priced into a live price as fair value....to get a fundamental view you have to look into the past on an elementary level which requires advanced math/ significance testing....and by studying and mathematically modelling the past data coupled with other live dynamic metrics analysts attempt to forecast EXPECTED data to be released at given time in the future....>>>ultimately seeking to identify an extrapolated trend to be exploited.

In a highly liquid market place....there is little money left on the table...forecasted data and actual released data is so quickly absorbed into the market place it is actually SHOCKINGLY quick....and this is why for short term trading Technical Analysis is what counts as it helps live market partisipants model greed and fear even though the underlying mid to long term fundamentals may suggest something else...thats why they say that if your an investor..a buy and hold kinda guy, fundamentals are critical and a detailed study of the asset is a must....but short term traders need not worry too much about whats going to happen 3 months to 5 years down the line as they wont be and dont intend to be exposed for such a long period of time...short term traders take it one or two days and maybe a week at a time...

Genics....just for a moment...remove that comment I made from your head about not getting out of bed for less than £50k/ month... even though its completely true and I don't have to prove jack to you or anyone for that matter...soon I think you'll understand my opinions and point of view in the subject of TA versus FA even though you may not agree...becuase thats what they are..their my experiences and opinions...you suggesting that you think that I don't actually trade because I don't have the money to trade made me chuckle as I soon realised that jealosy and envy got the better of you in making such a foundationless comment...its ok...I understand its only a human reaction to be envious...its amazing how talk of money brings the worst out in people....results in personal attacks.

With Trip...he was acting like the cocke of the house for a while telling me 'well done' in a patronising fashion...giving me advise when I didn't even ask for it on a subject he knows little about, he was telling me how I should apply fundamentally sophisticated moving averages before making a single trade..he compared his fundamental analysis to knowing a companies accounts in his head...lol....still I ignored it and played along and the moment I mentioned that I don't get out of bed for less that £50k/month whilst disagreeing with the amount of fundametal analytical work he claimed to cover in the time it takes me on a daily basis to draw lines on charts he switched off the subject in discussion accusing me of being a phony.... bloody marvelous chaps...bloody marvelous!...theres Trip telling us he made 1280 quid and then 680 quid in another post....then when I tell him that I don't gety out of bed for less than £50k/month with my line drawing basic technical analysis....he gets all hot under the collar and calls me a phony...jealousy is a disease...blood marvelous...lol...you know what they say about living in glass houses and then throwing stones!
Click to expand...

im not even reading half of that because you seriously dont know what your talking about
 
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